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Pirates Still Looking To Add Pitching, Could Explore Catching Market

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2023 at 1:57pm CDT

The Pirates have added a pair of arms to their rotation this offseason by signing Martin Perez and acquiring Marco Gonzales, and they also just completed their long-expected deal to re-sign Andrew McCutchen. During this morning’s media availability to discuss the McCutchen deal, Cherington noted that his club hopes to add more starting pitching (Twitter link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

The free-agent market still contains a bevy of veteran starters who could likely be had on relatively affordable short-term deals — James Paxton, Jakob Junis, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Noah Syndergaard and Spencer Turnbull among them. However, Mackey reported yesterday that a trade for rotation help was a likelier outcome. Of even greater note, he suggests that the Bucs could change pace at this stage of the building process, looking to consolidate several young players into a trade for a rotation arm with multiple years of club control remaining.

For a Pirates team that has far more frequently been the team trading away a veteran for a package of several young players, it’s a notable departure (and, for fans, likely a breath of fresh air). In particular, the Bucs have a glut of infield options on the 40-man roster but little place to put them all — assuming Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz have the left side of the diamond locked down for the foreseeable future, that is.

Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, Liover Peguero, Alika Williams and Ji Hwan Bae could all factor into what looks like an open audition at second base, but there aren’t enough at-bats for that group to go around. The Bucs aren’t going to get a high-end starter for one of those players alone, but any of the bunch could conceivably be packaged with other young talent to bring in a more immediate starting pitching upgrade.

Much of the focus on the pitching trade market has been on one-year rental options like Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes and the since-traded/extended Tyler Glasnow, but there are other arms with multiple years of club control who could potentially be available. Dylan Cease is the likeliest such pitcher to change hands, but each of Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Michael Kopech, Brady Singer, Jose Urquidy and (to a lesser extent) Framber Valdez has been mentioned in trade rumors of some degree dating back to the summer deadline. The Mariners are also an oft-speculated club with pitching to spare, though president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has downplayed the possibility of moving one of his many interesting young arms. There are surely other names being discussed throughout the league.

Regardless of how the rotation pursuit plays out, the Pirates could have multiple moves yet in store. Cherington also indicated that his club might explore the market for catching help, which is only natural after the unfortunate news that Endy Rodriguez will miss the 2024 season following Tommy John surgery. Former No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis could be in line for a full-time audition now, and the Pirates also have also signed Ali Sanchez to a big league deal. Jason Delay is on hand as a reasonably experienced backup, too. But if Davis struggles and/or there are injuries among that trio, the depth doesn’t look great.

As is the case in any given offseason, there’s no shortage of veteran free agents who could be had on a short-term deal. The trade market also bears a handful of options, ranging from change-of-scenery candidates (e.g. Joey Bart) to underwater contracts (e.g. Christian Vazquez) to out-of-options players who may not fit their current club’s Opening Day roster (e.g. Ben Rortvedt).

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Pittsburgh Pirates

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Dodgers Sign Nabil Crismatt, Travis Swaggerty To Minor League Deals

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2023 at 1:10pm CDT

The Dodgers have signed right-hander Nabil Crismatt and outfielder Travis Swaggerty to minor league deals, per each player’s respective transaction tracker at MLB.com. Each has been assigned to Triple-A Oklahoma for now but could be in big league camp as non-roster invitees.

Crismatt, who turns 29 on Monday, has thrown a combined 170 innings over the past four MLB seasons. Most of that has some with the Padres but he also made appearances with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, with a 3.76 earned run average in that time. His 21.5% strikeout rate is right around typical league averages but his 7.4% walk rate and 50.5% ground ball rate are both strong.

It’s a solid track record but he’s coming off a challenging season. He made six appearances for the Padres early in the year and wasn’t in great form, sporting an ERA of 10.80 when he was placed on the injured list with a hip strain. He was activated off the IL in June and made one more appearance before being designated for assignment. He elected free agency and landed with the Diamondbacks, making one appearance for that club before getting designated for assignment again. Between the two organizations, he had a 6.86 ERA in 59 Triple-A innings for the year.

Despite the frustrating 2023, Crismatt has shown an ability to get outs at the major league level before and will give the Dodgers some non-roster depth in their bullpen. If he is able to crack the roster at any point, he is out of options.

Swaggerty, now 26, was once a highly-touted youngster. The Pirates selected him with the 10th overall pick in the 2018 draft but has had his trajectory altered by injuries. A dislocated shoulder required surgery in 2021, then he battled vertigo and migraines in 2023. Due to those challenges and the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020, he’s been limited to 146 total games played over the past four years, only five of those at the major league level.

The 141 minor league games he played in that stretch led to a batting line of .242/.342/.397. He drew walks in 12.6% of his plate appearances but also struck out in 25% of them. He has a decent floor since his speed and defensive abilities are considered assets, but his offense might still be a work in progress due to so much missed development time. For the Dodgers, there’s no harm in taking a non-roster flier on a former first-round pick.

The club is currently slated to have an outfield mix consisting of James Outman, Manuel Margot, Jason Heyward and Chris Taylor, with Miguel Vargas and Andy Pages also on the roster. If Swaggerty is in good form in 2024 and gets his contract selected, he still has one option remaining.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Nabil Crismatt Travis Swaggerty

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Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty To One-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2023 at 1:05pm CDT

The Tigers announced that they have signed right-hander Jack Flaherty to a one-year, $14MM deal. He can also earn an extra $1MM in bonuses based on games started: $250K for 26 and 28 starts, then another $500K for 30. Flaherty is a client of CAA Sports.

Just 28 years old, Flaherty isn’t all that far removed from looking like one of the National League’s budding young aces. The former first-rounder was one of the sport’s top all-around prospects prior to making his big league debut, which came in 2017.

The following year saw the California native pitch to a sharp 3.34 earned run average through 151 big league innings, but Flaherty’s best work came, of all times, during the juiced-ball season in 2019. That year’s 2.75 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 1.15 HR/9 would be strong marks in any season but were especially impressive during the highest run-scoring environment since the steroid era. Two teams broke MLB’s single-season home run record that year, and yet while many pitchers throughout the league posted career-worst marks, Flaherty shined at his absolute brightest.

Unfortunately for both Flaherty and the Cardinals, that brilliant start to his career didn’t hold up. Injuries, primarily shoulder issues, conspired to limit Flaherty to just 154 1/3 innings over the next three seasons combined. During that time, he worked with slightly lesser velocity (93.9 mph) than his 94.5 mph peak, and his walk and home-run rates trended in the wrong direction. Overall, he posted a 3.90 earned run average but was limited to 32 starts (and another three bullpen outings).

The 2023 season for Flaherty was split between the Cardinals and the Orioles, who acquired him in a trade deadline deal sending lefty Drew Rom and prospects Cesar Prieto and Zack Showalter from Baltimore back to St. Louis. It was a mixed bag of a season for the righty. On the one hand, Flaherty’s 27 starts and 144 1/3 innings clearly made for his healthiest season since that brilliant ’19 effort. On the other, his 4.99 ERA was a career-worst (outside of a 21-inning sample as a rookie in 2017). His 22.8% strikeout rate was about average, but Flaherty’s 10.6% walk rate was elevated and his 93.2 mph average heater was down even further.

Despite the poor 2023 showing, Flaherty drew interest from at least the Pirates, Royals and Tigers — though his market surely included other suitors. There’s good sense in taking a flier on Flaherty, given his age, former prospect pedigree and the heights he reached earlier in his career.

As we noted on our Top 50 Free Agent Rankings, while we predicted a three-year pact for the righty — presuming a team would extend a multi-year pact in hopes of acquiring a below-market bargain — a straight one-year pillow deal always figured to be on the table. With strong results this year Flaherty can return to the market as a 29-year-old in position for a much more lucrative deal. The downside, of course, is that with another lackluster performance, Flaherty could well hit the market with considerably less earning power and no interest on multi-year contracts. Despite that potential, he’ll bet on himself with the more traditional approach and hope to cash in a year from now.

Should things play out that way, it’ll be to the benefit of the Tigers, who’ll not only have the opportunity to help Flaherty return to something resembling his peak levels but — if things play out that way — extend a qualifying offer to the righty. There’s a long way to go before that scenario is in play, but Flaherty’s early-career performance shows that he clearly has the talent to merit that type of offer when he’s at his best.

Flaherty becomes the second free-agent addition to what will be a dramatically different Tigers rotation than the one we saw in 2023. Gone is veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who opted out of the three years and $49MM on his contract and scored a four-year, $80MM deal with the NL champion D-backs. Flaherty and righty Kenta Maeda, fresh off an excellent finish to his ’23 campaign with the division-rival Twins, will take up the mantle of veteran rotation leaders for skipper AJ Hinch.

Not only will the Tigers have that newly signed pair of arms, they’ll also welcome 2018 No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize back into the fold after a season lost to Tommy John surgery. Standout lefty Tarik Skubal returns as the team’s top starter, and the quartet of Skubal, Flaherty, Maeda and Mize will be joined by some combination of Reese Olson, Matt Manning and Sawyer Gipson-Long. Olson, in particular, had a solid rookie campaign. Manning, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick and top prospect himself — one who’ll be looking for better luck in 2024. In astonishing fashion, Manning suffered a broken left foot on two different occasions, both upon being struck by a comeback liner (once in April and again in September).

With Flaherty’s $14MM salary added to the books, the Tigers’ payroll projection climbs north of $104MM. That’s still quite a ways down from last year’s $135MM Opening Day mark — due in no small part to Miguel Cabrera’s retirement — and nowhere close to the franchise-record $200MM mark. The Tigers will surely want to leave ample playing time for young, potential core pieces like Mize, Skubal, Manning, Olson, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and prospects Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy. But there’s still enough payroll space for the team to make some further additions, perhaps in the bullpen or on the bench.

Trevor Plouffe of Jomboy first connected the two sides. Jeff Passan of ESPN first relayed the contract specifics.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Transactions Jack Flaherty

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Brewers Sign Eric Haase

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2023 at 12:04pm CDT

The Brewers announced Wednesday that they’ve signed free agent catcher/outfielder Eric Haase to a one-year contract. The Warner Sports Management client will serve as the backup to William Contreras, replacing Victor Caratini after he inked a two-year deal with the Astros this winter. Milwaukee had an open spot on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move isn’t needed.

Haase, 31, has spent his entire career to date with Detroit and Cleveland, splitting the 2023 campaign between those two teams. It was a down year for Haase overall, particularly relative to his 2021-22 campaigns, wherein he combined for a .242/.295/.451 slash with 36 homers in 732 plate appearances for the Tigers. Last year, he saw that production dip to .201/.247/.281, prompting the Tigers to make a change behind the plate and acquire Carson Kelly as their new backup to Jake Rogers.

Last year’s downturn at the plate was in part due to a reduction in average on balls in play (.297 from 2021-22 but just .268 in 2023), however it also can’t simply be chalked up to poor fortune. Haase made hard contact at a far lower rate (45.1% in 2021-22, just 35.9% in 2023) and put the ball on the ground more often than in any full big league season prior. He also hit infield flies at the highest rate of his career and saw a career-low 5.6% of his fly-balls become home runs after enjoying an 18.8% mark in that regard in the two preceding seasons.

One would imagine that a move from the cavernous Comerica Park to Milwaukee’s American Family Field could help Haase to rediscover some of the previous pop he’d displayed. The Brewers may also be heartened by Haase’s career-best marks in overall contact percentage and contact rate within the strike zone.

Defensively, Haase is something of a mixed bag. Last year’s 24% caught-stealing rate was actually three percentage points higher than the 21% league average, and he showed improved framing marks after struggling in that regard in previous seasons. He also graded poorly in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt, however, and his broader body of work behind the plate has drawn below-average reviews when taken in sum. The Brewers, however, has a reputation for radically improving catcher defense. Contreras had significant defensive question marks before arriving in Milwaukee but graded as a premium defender last year. Before him, Omar Narvaez also saw pronounced improvements in his defensive ratings upon joining the Brewers.

Haase also brings some versatility to the table. While he’s not exactly a premium defender in the outfield, he’s still logged 355 career innings in left and made a one-off appearance in right field as well. He’s also had one-off appearances at both infield corners in the minors. For a Brewers team that has typically valued players who can move around the diamond, Haase’s outfield experience perhaps held additional appeal that other backup catching candidates couldn’t match.

Also of appeal is the fact that Haase comes to Milwaukee with multiple years of club control remaining. The Guardians outrighted him at season’s end — effectively non-tendering him — rather than paying him a raise in arbitration. Haase has just 3.058 years of big league service time, meaning he’ll remain under club control even beyond the current campaign. The Brewers can retain him via arbitration all the way through the 2026 season if the signing pans out. If not, Haase can at least serve as a bridge to catching prospect Jeferson Quero, who is fast climbing the minor league ladder and could be an option to join Contreras in Milwaukee by 2025 — if not later in the 2024 campaign.

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Milwaukee Brewers Transactions Eric Haase

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Angels, Jake Marisnick Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2023 at 10:42am CDT

The Angels have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran outfielder Jake Marisnick, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Presumably, the Equity Baseball client will be in camp on as a non-roster invite in spring training.

Marisnick, 33 in March, split the 2023 season between the White Sox, Tigers and Dodgers. Though he appeared in 46 games between the three teams, he was often used as a defensive replacement or pinch-runner, evidenced by the fact that he tallied just 83 big league plate appearances on the year. Marisnick slashed .237/.280/.408 in that tiny sample — numbers that roughly align with his career .228/.281/.385 batting line (2247 plate appearances).

While he’s never been much of a threat at the plate, the fleet-footed Marisnick is one of the most talented and underrated defenders of the current generation. He’s logged more than 400 innings in both outfield corners in his career and racked up nearly 4500 innings in center field, posting plus defensive grades at each spot. Marisnick has been credited with a massive 80 Defensive Runs Saved and 53 Outs Above Average across the outfield (including 54 DRS and 40 OAA in center field). Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Marisnick ranks eighth among all MLB outfielders in DRS and 12th in OAA, despite generally being used as a part-time player.

Marisnick’s 2023 sprint speed still ranked in the 87th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast, while his arm strength clocked into the 86th percentile. He clearly still has the tools to serve as a plus defender in the outfield, and with Mike Trout becoming increasingly susceptible to stints on the injured list in recent years, having an elite defensive fallback option makes some sense.

Between Trout, Taylor Ward, Mickey Moniak and the out-of-options Jo Adell, the Angels have at least  four outfield options ahead of Marisnick on the depth chart already. That might make it difficult for him to make the Opening Day roster, but Marisnick could step up in the event of an injury or trade of someone like Adell, and he has a decent enough track record against left-handed pitching (.237/.293/.417) to be a viable platoon partner for Moniak in a pinch.

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Los Angeles Angels Transactions Jake Marisnick

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Corbin Burnes Downplays Possibility Of Signing Extension

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2023 at 10:22am CDT

Heading into the offseason, the trade market contained a handful of veteran starters who were a year from free agency and widely expected to be available — Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber and perhaps Corbin Burnes chief among them. Glasnow has already changed hands, going from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles and signing an extension — which the two parties agreed upon as a contingency of the trade becoming official. Bieber is still with the Guardians. But as earlier this month, like Glasnow, he was reportedly open to discussing a long-term deal following a trade.

Fans of rival clubs may be eyeing Burnes and envisioning a similar outcome, but the right-hander himself effectively quashed any such hopes in an appearance with Erik Kratz, A.J. Pierzynski and Hannah Keyser on Foul Territory (video link). Asked by Kratz about the possibility of taking the same path Glasnow did, Burnes replied:

“Being in my shoes, being a year away from [free agency], I think if a trade-and-extension type of deal came up — obviously, every guy that gets this close to free agency wants to test the market to see what your true dollar amount is, see what teams really are in on you. It would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market and being able to choose where you want to go. I think that’s one thing every player in their career wants to get to. Once you get that six years of service time — which for a lot of guys takes seven, eight, sometimes nine years to get to — you get that chance to test the market and see what your top dollar is.”

Burnes, of course, is speaking in generalities. The majority of players ostensibly share his sentiment, but Glasnow has now twice signed an extension in lieu of reaching free agency, and we’ve seen plenty of players over the years hammer out a long-term deal when they’re less than a calendar year from reaching the market. It’s rarer, although hardly unprecedented, with an expected top-of-the-market free agent. Rafael Devers, Stephen Strasburg and Xander Bogaerts are just a few examples of prominent, All-Star-caliber talents signing an extension after reaching five years of big league service.

Still, Burnes’ comments seemingly align with most star-level players and shouldn’t be taken as a surprise. That’s particularly true given that he’s a client of the Boras Corporation, whose players tend to gravitate toward free agency. (Although, again, that’s a generality and perhaps even an overstated one; Strasburg, Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Carlos Gonzalez and others have all signed extensions under Boras.)

In his latest notes column at The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal reports that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio is still uncertain about how to proceed with Burnes and is wary of creating a similar backlash to the 2022 trade deadline deal that sent Josh Hader to San Diego. That doesn’t preclude a trade from ultimately coming together, but it’s a starkly different tone from the circumstances surrounding Glasnow, where a trade felt like an inevitability as the offseason wore on.

If the Brewers opt to hold onto Burnes, they can head into the 2024 season with him, Freddy Peralta, the recently re-signed Wade Miley and Adrian Houser in the top four spots of the rotation. Colin Rea, free-agent signee Joe Ross and prospect Robert Gasser (acquired in the aforementioned Hader deal) are among the other in-house candidates for rotation spots, and further additions via free agency or trade can’t be squarely ruled out. The lineup would need clear augmentation, but Milwaukee’s pitching would again have the makings of a solid group with Burnes and Peralta leading the rotation and Devin Williams anchoring the bullpen.

Should Milwaukee hold onto Burnes and fail to contend even in a thin National League Central division, Burnes would obviously hold immense appeal at the trade deadline. And, if they ride out the year with Burnes atop a contending rotation, they could at least extend a qualifying offer and recoup a draft pick after the first round in 2025. It’s a relatively small consolation prize for a former Cy Young winner, but that compensation still factors in when listening to any trade offers that come their way.

Holding onto any impending free agent/trade candidate comes with the risk of said player incurring an injury that tanks their value. Burnes, however, is so talented that anything short of a major surgery that would jeopardize his 2025 availability makes a QO a no-brainer. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched 622 1/3 innings with aa 2.86 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. Burnes has made three consecutive All-Star teams and won the National League Cy Young Award in 2021. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $15.1MM in 2024 before he becomes a free agent next winter.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Corbin Burnes

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Pirates Re-Sign Andrew McCutchen

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2023 at 8:44am CDT

Andrew McCutchen said multiple times throughout the 2023 season that he didn’t intend to play anywhere other than Pittsburgh for the remainder of his career, and that’s exactly where he’ll be in 2024. The Pirates announced Wednesday that they’ve re-signed the franchise icon to a one-year deal contract for the upcoming season. McCutchen, a client of Aegis Sports Management, will reportedly be guaranteed $5MM. A corresponding move will be announced “at a later time,” the team said in this morning’s press release.

It’s a reunion that has long been expected, given not only McCutchen’s vocal stance on the matter but also comments from general manager Ben Cherington indicating the Pirates wanted McCutchen back and planned to discuss a new contract in the offseason. Since Cutch suffered a partial tear of his Achilles in September, the club appeared to want to see how his rehab progressed before making things official, but reporting from last week suggested the two sides were starting to accelerate talks.

McCutchen, 37, isn’t the MVP-caliber performer from earlier in his career but can still swing it. He signed a one-year, $5MM deal to rejoin the Pirates for 2023, hitting 12 home runs and drawing walks in 15.9% of his plate appearances. His .256/.378/.397 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 115, indicating he was 15% better than the league average hitter overall. He also still flashed a bit of baserunning prowess, stealing 11 bags in 14 tries.

Defensively, he was almost exclusively a designated hitter, spending just 64 2/3 innings in right field. He is likely to be in a similar role this year, having returned via the same $5MM deal that he signed a year ago. The Pirates will likely be delighted with a comparable performance but are surely also signing McCutchen for leadership and veteran presence, as well as being a treat for fans. Jack Suwinski and Bryan Reynolds will likely have two everyday spots in the outfield locked down. Edward Olivares, Joshua Palacios, Connor Joe and others should be battling for playing time in one corner, though McCutchen will perhaps jog out to the grass from time to time.

The season-ending injury forced McCutchen to miss the last few weeks of the 2023 campaign, with his last appearance coming on September 4. That kept him from hitting his 300th career home run during the campaign, as he’s currently parked on 299. But he should have plenty of opportunities to hit that milestone next year, which will appropriately come in a Pirates’ uniform. From 2009 to 2017, McCutchen was a five-time All-Star, won a Gold Glove in 2012 and National League MVP in 2013.

The heyday of McCutchen coincided with the club’s last competitive window. They made the playoffs in three straight years from 2013 to 2015 but haven’t been back since. The 2023 campaign featured an encouraging record of 76-86, still below .500 but their best finish since 2018. If the club’s young core is able to take a step forward and return to the postseason, then McCutchen could be a nice throughline connecting the two eras of baseball in Pittsburgh.

Roster Resource now pegs the club’s 2024 payroll at $70MM, just a bit below last year’s Opening Day figure of $73MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. General manager Ben Cherington has suggested that the payroll could push upwards next year, though it’s unclear exactly how far they are willing to go. In the post from Mackey linked above, he hints that the club may be making an addition to its pitching staff soon, likely via trade.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and the terms.

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Andrew McCutchen

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The Opener: Yamamoto, Matsui, Pirates

By Nick Deeds | December 20, 2023 at 8:26am CDT

As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will Yamamoto get $300MM?

The top free agent remaining at this point in the offseason is right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The 25-year-old NPB ace has previously been reported as having seven “finalists” for his services: the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies, and Blue Jays. Reporting has since indicated that Philadelphia and Toronto are likely on the periphery of the sweepstakes, while last night rumors surfaced that the Dodgers were considering making an offer to Yamamoto in the $250-300MM range.

An offer even on the smaller end of that range would make Yamamoto’s contract the second-largest in MLB history for a starting pitcher (ignoring two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani) behind only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, edging out Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg’s $245MM guarantee from the 2019-20 offseason. The bidding process for Yamamoto’s services is expected to continue throughout the week, leaving the door open for other finalists’ offers to reach or even surpass the reported range L.A. is considering.

2. Is a Matsui deal on the horizon?

Yamamoto isn’t the only NPB pitcher getting buzz of late. As of yesterday, the Padres and left-handed reliever Yuki Matsui were reportedly close on a multi-year deal. Matsui, 28, has posted sub-2.00 ERAs out of the bullpen in Japan in each of the past three seasons, with a combined 1.42 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate across 152 innings during that time. That show of dominance overseas earned Matsui the No. 43 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. The Cardinals, Red Sox and Cubs are among the teams that have been connected to Matsui this offseason outside of San Diego, though with a deal seemingly on the verge of coming together, those teams may be forced to look elsewhere for bullpen help going forward.

3. Pirates facing roster crunch:

The Pirates have begun making moves to add to the club in recent days as they look to improve upon a 76-86 season during which the club showed flashes of success but ultimately finished fourth in the NL Central. Two recent moves made to improve the club’s standing were the addition of left-hander Martin Perez to the rotation and the club’s reported reunion with veteran DH Andrew McCutchen, who will don on a Pirates uniform for an 11th season in his 16-year MLB career. Before either deal can become official, however, the Pirates must clear space on their 40-man roster, which is currently full even without Perez and McCutchen having officially signed. Pittsburgh could look to make a minor trade or two in the coming days to clear space on the roster for their recent signings, or simply designate two players on the 40-man roster for assignment to make room.

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The Opener

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Blue Jays Have Some Interest In Rhys Hoskins, Justin Turner

By Anthony Franco | December 19, 2023 at 11:06pm CDT

The Blue Jays have some level of interest in Rhys Hoskins and Justin Turner as they evaluate their options at designated hitter, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s part of a wide net being cast by the front office, as Nicholson-Smith reiterates previously reported ties to J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson and Joey Votto as well.

Toronto has a vacancy at DH with Brandon Belt returning to the open market. Bringing in a left-handed bat to complement a lineup led by Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Danny Jansen would be ideal, but the interest in Martinez suggests they’re not limiting themselves solely to lefty hitters. GM Ross Atkins has alluded to the potential for multiple lineup additions, after all. The Jays could add a right-handed DH while bringing in a lefty bat in the outfield.

Hoskins lost the 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He’d likely have made it back as a DH or pinch-hitting option had the Phillies made the World Series. While that didn’t happen, the 30-year-old (31 in March) projects as one of the better offensive players on the market. Hoskins has been a consistent middle-of-the-order presence throughout his career, compiling a .242/.353/.492 line. He has hit between 27 and 34 home runs in each of the four full seasons he’s played while running better than average walk rates on an annual basis.

Turner has been a consistently strong lineup presence as well. He hasn’t had a below-average offensive season since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. At age 39, he’s no longer suited for 140+ starts at third base. Yet Turner could serve as a primary DH while rotating in at the hot corner, where the Jays have a question with Matt Chapman still in free agency. Turner is still more than capable of handling a primary DH role. He’s coming off an impressive .276/.345/.455, 23-homer showing for the Red Sox.

It doesn’t seem either player is a priority target for the Toronto front office. Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could wait out the market for another few weeks to determine whether anyone in a broad group of hitters of interest presents strong value later in the offseason.

Hoskins has also drawn reported interest from the Cubs, Mariners and Nationals. Turner has been on the radar of the incumbent Red Sox, Mets and Diamondbacks. MLBTR predicted Hoskins to land a two-year, $36MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, although a standard one-year pillow contract is also possible. Turner seems likelier to sign for one year given his age, but he could also command a salary in the $16-18MM range.

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Dodgers Considering $250MM+ Offer To Yamamoto

By Anthony Franco | December 19, 2023 at 9:38pm CDT

The Dodgers are considering presenting an offer in the $250-300MM range to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. Reports from yesterday indicated that teams are likely to put forth contract proposals to the NPB star this week, with a decision perhaps coming by Monday.

Yamamoto’s landing spot and price point are perhaps the biggest remaining story of the offseason. The 25-year-old righty has emerged as the clear top free agent after Shohei Ohtani came off the board. It is believed the field has narrowed to seven teams: the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and Blue Jays.

This morning, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic indicated Philadelphia and Toronto are more on the outside of the market and could be longer shots. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith echoes that with regards to the Jays, reporting that Toronto is less likely to be one of the top finalists on Yamamoto than they were on Ohtani.

Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the pitcher’s visit to the East Coast last week only consisted of a stop in New York to chat with the Yankees and Mets. While the Red Sox and Phils conducted in-person interviews with Yamamoto, officials from both teams met with the pitcher and his representatives in Los Angeles.

In recent weeks, there has been increasing speculation the price tag could exceed $300MM. That’s particularly true when considering the accompanying posting fee that would be owed to his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. An MLB club would owe the Buffaloes 20% of the contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM), and 15% of additional spending.

An offer of $250MM to Yamamoto, which seems a conservative estimate of his earning power at this point given the robust interest, would require a $39.375MM posting fee. That’d put the total commitment a little north of $289MM. If a team were to offer Yamamoto $300MM, that’d come with a $46.875MM posting sum that pushes their spending to nearly $347MM.

Of course, that’s even before getting to luxury tax implications — which would come into play for the known suitors aside from Boston and San Francisco. The Dodgers have a competitive balance tax projection around $256MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That places them right on the border of the $257MM second threshold of penalization.

As a payor for the third straight year, they’d be taxed at a 62% rate for spending between $257MM and $277MM and at a 95% clip on money from $277MM to $297MM (with a 110% tax on any spending thereafter). Signing Yamamoto would push them past the $277MM threshold with ease, quite likely tacking on another $17MM or more in taxes in year one. To be clear, only the amount paid to Yamamoto would factor into the competitive balance tax calculation; the posting fee is not part of that calculus.

Of course, the deferrals in the Ohtani deal (along with lesser but still notable deferrals for Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman) lower their immediate raw payroll. Their actual salary commitments for next season are south of $200MM, well below the approximate $223MM mark they carried into 2023.

Los Angeles certainly isn’t the only team weighing an offer in this range for the three-time Sawamura Award winner. If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, Harris suggests that L.A. is likelier to turn to the trade market for pitching help as opposed to pivoting to another top free agent like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The Dodgers already struck for Tyler Glasnow on the trade front but remain on the hunt for starting pitching behind their top three of Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller.

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