Red Sox Remain In Rotation Market Following Crochet Deal

The Red Sox landed the offseason’s top rotation trade candidate this afternoon. Even after acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for a four-prospect package, Boston is on the hunt for starting pitching.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that the Sox remained in the rotation market after the Crochet acquisition (Bluesky link via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). The Globe’s Alex Speier reports (on X) that Boston is still engaged on Corbin Burnes as well as mid-tier rotation targets.

That could evidently take the form of either a free agent move or a trade. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that the Sox are still having discussions with the Mariners regarding their starting pitching. Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported on Monday that Seattle rebuffed interest in a framework that would’ve sent one of their young starters to the Sox for first baseman Triston Casas. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has spoken repeatedly of the organization’s reluctance to even consider moving George KirbyLogan GilbertBryan Woo or Bryce Miller.

Luis Castillo could be a different story. The Mariners are reportedly open to discussing Castillo, whom they owe $68.25MM over the next three seasons. The deal also has a vesting option for 2028. According to Mark Feinsand and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, there’s a belief within the industry that the righty is available (X link). There should be trade value, as Castillo’s deal aligns with what Luis Severino and Nathan Eovaldi have landed on three-year free agent deals. Yet Castillo isn’t as appealing as the M’s young core of much more affordable starters. That price tag surely plays into the M’s willingness to listen to offers, as they’re reportedly working with around $15-20MM in payroll room and could use multiple hitters.

It’s unlikely that the Mariners would trade Castillo strictly for prospects. They’d presumably need an MLB hitter to anchor the return. Casas might be too big an ask if they’re not sending one of their younger arms to Boston. Outfielder Wilyer Abreu is another potential Red Sox trade candidate, though the M’s have less need for an outfielder than they do for an impact bat in the corner infield like Casas.

Whether anything will come of the Sox’s pursuits remains to be seen. At the very least, it’s clear Breslow and his front office aren’t fully satisfied with a rotation comprising Crochet, Tanner HouckBrayan BelloKutter Crawford and Lucas Giolito. They gave up a good package of young talent to get Crochet, but he’s eminently affordable from a financial perspective. Boston should have the flexibility to continue identifying free agent targets or take on a notable salary in trade.

Brewers Sign Grant Wolfram To Major League Deal

The Brewers have agreed to a major league contract with free-agent lefty Grant Wolfram, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (X link). He’s already passed his physical. It’s a nice birthday present former 18th-rounder, who’ll turn 28 on Thursday. Wolfram is a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management.

A towering 6’8″ southpaw, Wolfram is being added to a 40-man roster for the first time in his career. He’s pitched exclusively in the Rangers organization to this point, logging parts of three seasons in Double-A and another two in Triple-A.

Wolfram was hit hard in his Triple-A debut in 2023 but excelled with the Rangers’ top affiliate in Round Rock this past season. In 56 2/3 innings, Wolfram posted a 3.34 ERA with a sharp 25.6% strikeout rate. His 10.9% walk rate is notably higher than league-average, but Wolfram has typically missed bats at strong levels and, over the past couple seasons, has seen an uptick in grounders. He kept the ball on the ground at a 44.6% rate in 2024.

An 18th-rounder who signed for an $85K bonus out of Division-II Davenport University in Michigan, Wolfram has spent parts of seven seasons in pro ball but has yet to reach the majors. Now that he’s on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, he’ll have a good chance to do just that in the coming season. While it’s not common for career minor leaguers with no big league experience to sign major league contracts, it’s certainly not unheard of. There tend to be a handful of contracts along these lines every offseason, with Kyle Finnegan standing as one of the more prominent recent examples.

The Brewers aren’t exactly lacking in left-handed bullpen options, but Wolfram gives them some further depth. At the moment, Milwaukee has Jared Koenig, Bryan Hudson, Tyler Jay, DL Hall and Aaron Ashby all on the 40-man roster. Hall and Ashby could be ticketed for rotation work, however, and Jay is more of a depth arm who’s not a lock to survive the entire offseason on the 40-man roster himself. Since Wolfram is being added to a big league roster for the first time, he’ll have a full slate of minor league options, giving Milwaukee plenty of flexibility with him for the next few years.

2024 Rule 5 Draft Results

The 2024 Rule 5 draft took place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The results of the draft are below.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.

Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.

Here are this year’s picks…

  1. White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
  2. Rockies: pass
  3. Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
  4. Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
  5. Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
  6. Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
  7. Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
  8. Pirates: pass
  9. Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
  10. Rangers: pass
  11. Giants: pass
  12. Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
  13. Red Sox: pass
  14. Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
  15. Cardinals: pass
  16. Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
  17. Mariners: pass
  18. Royals: pass
  19. Tigers: pass
  20. Astros: pass
  21. Mets: pass
  22. D-backs: pass
  23. Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
  24. Orioles: pass
  25. Guardians: pass
  26. Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
  27. Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
  28. Yankees: pass
  29. Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
  30. Dodgers: pass

Second round (all but one club passed)

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.

Rangers Sign Jacob Webb

3:40pm: The Rangers made it official, announcing Webb’s deal. Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link) reports that it’s for $1.25MM. Webb can get to $1.5MM via incentives, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link).

2:05pm: The Rangers are in agreement with right-hander Jacob Webb on a one-year deal, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. Financial terms have not yet been reported. The Rangers have one vacancy on their 40-man roster but also have an agreement in place with right-hander Nathan Eovaldi. A corresponding move will be required once both deals become official.

Webb was a somewhat surprising non-tender by the Orioles a few weeks ago. He tossed 56 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2024, allowing 3.02 earned runs per nine. His 11.4% walk rate was on the high side but he also struck out 24.5% of batters faced.

Baltimore could have kept him around via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting Webb for a fairly modest $1.7MM salary next year, but the O’s evidently didn’t want him back at that price point. He was non-tendered and therefore sent to free agency without being exposed to waivers, which allowed him to sign this deal.

The Rangers are likely going to be paying Webb something in that range, so he’s a fairly low-cost addition to the bullpen. That’s a sensible move for them as relief help is a key need and the budget is a concern. Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc, and José Ureña were the relievers with the most innings pitched for Texas in 2024 and all four are now free agents. On top of that, Josh Sborz underwent shoulder surgery that is going to keep him out of action until about midseason.

On the budgetary side of things, the club is hoping to avoid the competitive balance tax next year, which could means the most expensive relievers aren’t options for them. RosterResource pegs their CBT number at just a bit above $220MM right now, meaning they are still about $20MM away from the $241MM base threshold, but they probably want to save a bit of wiggle room for in-season moves.

Taking all that into account, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rangers take fliers on a few cheap relievers, starting with this one. Webb now has 187 innings of major league experience with a 2.98 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate. If he has a good year with Texas in 2025, he can be retained via arbitration for the 2026 season as well.

Reds Interested In James McCann

The Reds have interest in veteran catcher James McCann, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. McCann has also received interest from the Orioles and Red Sox, though Baltimore’s recent deal with Gary Sanchez seemingly closes the door on a reunion.

McCann, 34, was a starting-caliber catcher with the Tigers and White Sox earlier in his career but has settled into a backup role in recent years with the Mets and Orioles. Since the start of the 2022 season, McCann has appeared in 195 combined games with 650 plate appearances total while slashing .218/.269/.353, which was good for a 75 wRC+ during that time. While McCann posted solid defensive numbers in terms of both framing and throwing out runners earlier in his career, his defense has taken a step back since then. During his time in Baltimore, Statcast rated McCann as a below-average defensive catcher overall, with average marks (0 CS Above Average) for throwing out runners but lackluster marks in terms of blocking (-12 Blocks Above Average) and pitch framing (-5 Framing Runs).

While McCann isn’t an impact player on either side of the ball at this stage of his career, he’d certainly be an upgrade over Cincinnati’s internal options for a back-up catcher, which include non-roster invitee Alex Jackson and Triple-A youngster Eric Yang. Jackson hit just .122/.201/.237 in 58 games with the Rays last year, while Yang has exactly one plate appearance in the big leagues after making his debut in 2024 and posted an 85 wRC+ at Triple-A this past season. McCann’s veteran stability could raise the floor at the catcher position behind starter Tyler Stephenson while providing leadership off the bench for an extremely young Cincinnati offense.

Previous reporting this winter suggested that McCann could look to land a multi-year guarantee this winter. While it’s unclear if the Reds would have interest in making a longer-term commitment of that sort to McCann, it’s worth noting that the recent trends of the catching market suggest he may need to settle for a one-year offer anyway, as more well-regarded players like Sanchez and Jacob Stallings have settled on one-year arrangements so far this winter. The only two-year pact given to a free agent catcher to this point in the winter so far has been for Kyle Higashioka, who entered free agency on the heels of a career year that saw him swat 17 homers in just 263 plate appearances. If the Reds explore other options for a veteran back-up this winter, Elias Diaz and Yasmani Grandal are among the more interesting options still available.

Details On Max Fried Bidding

1:30pm: A’s general manager David Forst denies that the club made a push for Fried, per Martín Gallegos of MLB.com (X link)

11:55am: One of the top free agents came off the board this week when the Yankees and Max Fried agreed to a stunning eight-year, $218MM deal. Clubs like the Blue Jays and Red Sox were also known to be in the involved but Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link) reports that the Athletics were “one of the most aggressive teams” in the bidding.

Many fans might roll their eyes at the idea of the A’s getting anywhere near a free agent of this caliber, which would be an understandable position to take. As of a couple of weeks ago, they had never given a free agent more than the $36MM they gave to Yoenis Céspedes back in 2012. They recently broke that record by giving Luis Severino $67MM, a huge jump for them but still relatively modest by league-wide standards and well below the deal that Fried got.

But the A’s have to spend some money somewhere. It was reported this week that the club may need to get its competitive balance tax number up to the $105MM range in order to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA.

That perhaps explains all the recent smoke about an upcoming payroll bump. MLBTR took a detailed look at the A’s last month, in a reporting that references reporting going back to January which hinted at a potential for greater spending. Since then, the A’s have ramped things up with the aforementioned Severino signing. They also reportedly made a strong offer to Sean Manaea, who remains unsigned.

It’s not surprising that they couldn’t get something done with Fried, as the pitching market has been hot. Fried and several other pitchers have exceeded the expectations from the start of the offseason. MLBTR predicted him for six years and $156MM but he blew past that, with guys like Severino, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and other hurlers also outpacing their projections.

It’s generally expected that the A’s will have to overpay to reel in any free agent. Given that the club has been rebuilding for many years and is going to be playing the next three years in a Triple-A park in West Sacramento, no free agents will have them as a first choice. Some guys will simply go where the money is best but some may need a premium before considering the unique circumstances of joining the A’s. That may have been the case with Severino, who was predicted to earn $51MM but got far more than that.

Even if the A’s were theoretically willing to marginally top the Yankees’ offer, Fried may not have taken their money. Still, it suggests that they are still a club to watch in the remainder of the offseason. RosterResource their CBT number is currently at $78MM, so they are still well south of their reported $105MM target. That means they could factor into remaining free agents such as Manaea, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta or others. Even after adding Severino, the rotation stands out as the best way to upgrade the team while also getting their spending up, with their interest in Fried and Manaea reflecting that.

What also may be notable is that the club doesn’t seem to worried about players who rejected qualifying offers. The A’s already forfeited their third-highest pick in the upcoming draft by signing Severino since he rejected a QO from the Mets. Fried and Manaea also rejected QOs, so the interest from the A’s there suggests they may be willing to forfeit another pick.

Another route could be to acquire a player making a notable salary in trade. For instance, the Yankees now have a surplus in their rotation after signing Fried and might look to move the remainder of Marcus Stroman‘s contract. He will make $18MM in 2025 and there’s an $18MM player option for 2026 if he throws 140 innings next year. Stroman arguably doesn’t have a great path to a rotation job in the Bronx but could serve as a solid veteran for the A’s.

Elsewhere in the Fried bidding, Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that the Red Sox’ offer was “significantly” lower than the Yankees. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Sox were at $190MM over seven years and may have been able to go higher, though with deferrals. Sherman adds that the Rangers were also at $190MM over seven years, though the lack of a state tax in Texas actually made that fairly comparable to the eight years and $210MM the Yankees were offering, forcing them to go higher and symbolically top the $217MM that David Price got from the Red Sox back in 2015.

It’s perhaps not surprising that the Sox fell short given how high the number ended up going, but it does highlight the fact that they haven’t been able to achieve their main offseason goal of upgrading the rotation. They also had interest in pitchers like Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi, who have gone elsewhere. Trade talks with the White Sox about Garrett Crochet have apparently stalled. Righty Corbin Burnes is still out there but it’s been reported that they are less likely to win that bidding than the Blue Jays or Giants.

White Sox Sign Mike Tauchman

December 11: The White Sox officially announced the deal today.

December 10: Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (X link) provided some financial details today. Tauchman will make a salary of $1.95MM and can earn an extra $1MM via incentives. There’s also a $250K relocation bonus if he’s traded.

December 9: The White Sox are in agreement with free agent outfielder Mike Tauchman, reports Scott Merkin of MLB.com (X link). It’s a major league contract for the Meister Sports Management client, tweets James Fegan of Sox Machine. Terms have not been reported. The Sox have two openings on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move is necessary.

Tauchman, a Chicago-area native, heads to the other side of the city after spending two seasons with the Cubs. The lefty-swinging outfielder was a nice role player for the North Siders. He has hit .250/.360/.372 across 751 plate appearances since returning from a 2022 stint in Korea. That includes a solid .248/.357/.366 showing over 350 trips to the dish this year.

That made it somewhat surprising that the Cubs opted not to tender Tauchman a contract for his second trip through the arbitration process. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him at a relatively modest $2.9MM. That was evidently too pricey for a Cubs team that felt it’d have a tough time getting him the same amount of playing time. Ian HappPete Crow-ArmstrongCody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki are lined up for outfield and designated hitter work. Alexander Canario and Kevin Alcantara made their MLB debuts late in the year, while prospect Owen Caissie isn’t far off himself.

Tauchman has a much clearer path to playing time at Guaranteed Rate Field. He’s the second outfield acquisition of the winter for Sox GM Chris Getz. Chicago brought in righty-swinging Austin Slater on a $1.75MM deal last month. Tauchman probably isn’t much more costly. He could pair with Slater in a right field platoon. The Sox non-tendered Gavin Sheets a few weeks ago, while presumptive starter Dominic Fletcher hit just .206/.252/.256 across 241 plate appearances this past season.

While this isn’t a move that’ll meaningfully change the outfield’s ceiling, Tauchman’s plate discipline gives him a higher floor than Fletcher. He could hit towards the top of the lineup. The Sox would surely be happy to cash him in at the deadline if he’s performing well. As a 34-year-old journeyman outfielder, Tauchman wouldn’t net a big return even if he has a strong first half. Still, the White Sox could theoretically flip him for a mid-tier prospect next July.

Conflicting Reports On Angels Outfield Situation

12:43pm: On the Baseball Insiders podcast, Robert Murray of FanSided says the Angels are not in fact close to trading an outfielder (hat tip to Sam Blum of The Athletic and Beyond the Halo on X)

9:28am: Yesterday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link) reported that the Angels seemed to be close to trading an outfielder. Nothing has come together yet but it’s possible that talks are still ongoing. It wasn’t specified which outfielder they were about to trade but Feinsand suggested that Taylor Ward would make sense since there have been rumors of other clubs being interested in him. However, Ward’s agent Joel Wolfe told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (X link) that he hadn’t heard anything about trade talks involving his client. That doesn’t necessarily mean that there aren’t discussions happening but members of the Atlanta beat like David O’Brien of The Athletic (X link) and Mark Bowman of MLB.com (X link) both report that, if there is an imminent Ward trade, it won’t be to Atlanta.

Ward has seemed like a logical trade candidate for a while now. As the Angels have struggled to compete in recent years, there has been natural speculation about the veteran players on the roster with shrinking windows of club control. Ward will be celebrating his 31st birthday this Saturday and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

If the Angels were pivoting towards a sort of reset, it would make sense to trade Ward for younger and more controllable players. However, despite just losing 99 games in the most recent season, the Halos are clearly trying to contend in 2025. Both owner Arte Moreno and general manager Perry Minasian made it clear that was the plan for this winter and they have backed that up, acquiring Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks and others already.

In that context, trading Ward becomes a bit more difficult to see. The outfield is already a fairly thin part of the roster, consisting of Ward, Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak and perhaps Soler. Trout has become increasingly injury prone in recent years, having not played 120 games in a season since 2019. Soler is a poor defender and best suited to be the designated hitter more often than not. Adell and Moniak still have poor offensive track records overall.

Subtracting Ward from that group would make it even flimsier but clubs would certainly be interested if he were available. He has hit .259/.338/.440 over the past four years for a wRC+ of 118, indicating he’s been 18% better than the league average hitter in that time. His defense has also been graded around league average or above, allowing him to play at a pace of about two to four wins above replacement per year, according to FanGraphs.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Ward for a $9.2MM salary in 2025, a notable sum but still a bargain for a player like Ward. Free agent corner outfielders like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are likely to command multi-year contracts with average annual values double that. Ward would be in line for a raise in 2026, his final season before free agency, but that figure would still be a good deal if he continues to produce at his usual rates.

A trade coming together would naturally depend on what other clubs are willing to offer. Perhaps the Angels get offered some big league pitching or infield help that they feel is worth taking, but they would then have to pivot to replacing Ward in the outfield mix. The Pirates and Royals were both connected to Ward at the trade deadline with Kansas City reportedly still interested in him as of last month, though the Angels haven’t let go of him yet.

Some fans might hear about the Angels potentially trading an outfielder and jump to Trout but it’s hard to imagine a trade like that coming out of the blue. He has a full no-trade clause and has repeatedly said that he wants to stay and win with the Angels. It’s possible that he changes his mind at some point but there’s hasn’t been any public suggestion that has happened.

His contract is also hard to move from a financial perspective. Trout is paid at superstar rates but hasn’t been able to provide that production in a while. He’s always good when he’s on the field but hasn’t been out there enough to accrue counting stats at his previous levels. He’s set to make $35.45MM annually for another six seasons. Even for a marquee name like Trout, that’s a lot of money for a guy who’s now 33 years old with mounting injury concerns.

Even if Trout wanted to be traded, it would be a tricky spot for the Halos since they would likely have to settle for a middling return on a franchise player or eat money just to get a notable package, which isn’t a great P.R. position either way.

It’s also possible Moniak or Adell are the ones being discussed, though neither would have huge value right now. Moniak has stepped to the plate 908 times in the majors thus far with a .230/.272/.402 batting line and 32.3% strikeout rate. Adell has hit .211/.268/.381 in his career with a 32.2% strikeout rate.

It’s possible to see some improvement from Adell in 2024, as he popped 24 home runs while lowering his strikeout rate to 27.9%. His overall production was still subpar but his .244 batting average on balls in play was well below league average. It’s possible he took a meaningful step forward this past year and will break out with better luck in 2025 but he’s floundered so many times that teams might be reluctant to bet on that.

Latest On Corbin Burnes

Right-hander Corbin Burnes entered the offseason as the consensus top rotation option available in free agency, but following last night’s reported agreement between the Yankees and Max Fried he now stands as the only ace-level pitcher available on the open market this winter. That should put Burnes in strong position to exceed MLBTR’s seven-year, $200MM prediction for the righty. While Boston reportedly put together a formal offer for Corbin Burnes yesterday, a separate report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized the Blue Jays and Giants as the “most aggressive” teams in their pursuit of Burnes and went on to suggest that the Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.

Toronto, who Feinsand notes is considered the “favorite” to land Burnes, have been involved on a number of top free agents this winter and made their first major moves of the winter yesterday by agreeing to terms with right-hander Yimi Garcia and trading infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell to land infielder Andres Gimenez and righty Nick Sandlin from the Guardians. While those moves have helped to address the club’s bullpen after they non-tendered Jordan Romano last month and bolster their infield mix, one area of the roster that has not yet been addressed is the rotation.

The Jays dealt lefty Yusei Kikuchi away at the trade deadline, face Chris Bassitt departing in free agency next winter, and saw Kevin Gausman take a step back last year as he enters his mid-30s. Given those realities, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would hope to add a top-of-the-rotation arm to its mix. For a club that’s been involved in top free agents ranging from Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter to Juan Soto and Max Fried this year, it’s hardly a surprise that they’re being aggressive on Burnes with the other top-of-the-market players rapidly coming off the board.

As for the Giants, the club has a clear hole at the front of their rotation after southpaw Blake Snell departed for their archrival Dodgers in free agency last month. Much like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has been deeply involved in the upper levels of free agency in the past several years. While most of that occurred under former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, Buster Posey kicked his tenure as head decision-maker for the Giants off with a bang over the weekend when he signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year deal. While supplementing their young core with a top-flight starter alongside their twin investments in Adames and Matt Chapman would make plenty of sense, rumors percolated last month that the club could look to scale back payroll this winter, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to achieve that goal while also bringing Burnes into the fold. Given that reality, it’s perhaps no surprise that sources told Feinsand they were “skeptical” of San Francisco’s odds of outbidding Toronto if the Jays are determined in their pursuit of Burnes.

Perhaps the most interesting piece of Feinsand’s report, however, is the apparent pessimism regarding the Red Sox as a suitor for Burnes. Boston brass haven’t been shy about their plans to be aggressive this winter, particular in pursuit of front-of-the-rotation arms. With Fried and Snell now off the market, Burnes is the last clearly ace-level pitcher available in free agency this winter. Feinsand suggests that the Red Sox could pursue a reunion with right-hander Nick Pivetta in free agency if they miss out on Burnes, though Pivetta’s 4.29 ERA in parts of five seasons with the Red Sox is hardly a front-of-the-rotation level resume.

Other possible solutions Feinsand discussed are right-hander Walker Buehler, whom the Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in, as well as trade market options like White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet. The trade market also seems to be a potential fallback plan for the incumbent Orioles if they miss out on reuniting with Burnes. A report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today described Baltimore’s hopes of re-signing the star righty as fading and noted that the Orioles have interest in Padres right-hander Dylan Cease in the event that Burnes ultimately lands elsewhere. Cease is not currently seen as likely to move, but the Padres are reportedly exploring his market with the Red Sox also known to be among his potential suitors. Turning back to Boston, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox “seem confident” about their ability to land a top pitcher this winter, although that could mean trading for a player like Crochet or Cease rather than signing Burnes.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.