MLBTR Podcast: Royals’ Reinforcements, Promoted Angels, And The Terrible White Sox
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The most recent edition of the 2024-25 Free Agent Power Rankings (1:30)
- The Royals claim Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman, as well as trading for Yuli Gurriel (5:15)
- The Angels promote Caden Dana and Samuel Aldegheri (10:50)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What’s the problem with the White Sox? Is it an owner not willing to spend? Is it inept senior management in getting taken in trades and a poor plan for success? What is it going to take to become competitive again? Are there other factors that keep top free agents from coming to the White Sox? Franchise culture? Moving a family to Chicago? Inability to develop talent? (20:35)
- Who should the Rangers be looking at this winter? A center fielder? A backup catcher and pitching? (30:50)
- As a big Braves fan, I am curious to see what they do about shortstop for 2025 and beyond. Whom do you think ends up starting there? It seems unlikely Nacho Alvarez Jr. seizes the position, right? Do we move on from Orlando Arcia? My preference would be to re-sign Whit Merrifield to play there. Could he handle shortstop? What do you guys say? (36:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- Scott Servais, Perry Minasian, The Orioles’ Rotation, And Joey Votto – listen here
- Who Could Get Waived, Potential Rule Changes, Austin Riley, And Hector Neris – listen here
- The White Sox Fire Their Manager, Víctor Robles Extended, And The Marlins’ Front Office – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
The Opener: Darvish, Holmes, Twins
As the stretch run of the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Darvish returns to the mound:
Veteran right-hander Yu Darvish is scheduled to make his first start for the Padres since May tonight against the Tigers. The 38-year-old missed time due to hamstring and elbow issues earlier this summer before being placed on the restricted list due to an undisclosed family matter back in July.
Prior to his lengthy absence, the veteran looked to be rebounding from a fairly pedestrian 2023 season. After posting a lackluster 4.56 ERA last year, Darvish impressed with a 3.20 ERA and 3.54 FIP in 11 starts this year before hitting the shelf. Since being traded to the Padres after a second-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting with the Cubs in 2020, Darvish has put together a 3.80 ERA with a 3.69 FIP and a 26.2% strikeout rate. With the Padres firmly in the playoff picture, both Darvish and fellow veteran Joe Musgrove figure to factor into the club’s postseason rotation alongside Dylan Cease and Michael King.
2. Yankees weighing late-inning options?
As noted by The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner overnight, Yankees manager Aaron Boone refused to answer a question regarding right-hander Clay Holmes‘ status as the club’s closer following yesterday’s heartbreaking loss where Holmes surrendered a walk-off grand slam to Rangers rookie Wyatt Langford. Boone said during his postgame presser the club plans to “talk through it and do what we think is the best thing” but didn’t want to say more while the team was still “raw and emotional” following the loss.
Holmes, who earned his second career All-Star nod this season, sports a 3.27 ERA and an excellent 2.91 FIP in 55 innings of work. Despite those strong rate numbers, however, he hasn’t exactly been a shutdown ninth-inning option in his third year as the club’s closer. He’s converted just 29 of his 40 save opportunities. Those 11 blown saves lead the majors, well ahead of even other struggling closers like Craig Kimbrel and David Bednar, both of whom have blown six saves in 29 chances.
3. Twins roster move incoming:
As noted by Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune yesterday, the Twins are expected to recall right-hander Louie Varland before today’s game against the Rays. Varland is poised to pitch in a multi-inning relief role after scheduled starter Ronny Henriquez, who hasn’t thrown more than two innings in an outing with the big league club this year. After today’s scheduled outing, it’s not clear if Varland will pitch for the club in a bullpen role down the stretch or remain stretched out as a starting option, but Nightengale suggests that the 26-year-old figures to remain with the club going forward rather than return to the minor leagues.
Varland entered the year as a rotation candidate in Minnesota, with a career 4.40 ERA (96 ERA+) in 94 innings as a swing option at the big league level. Unfortunately for the righty, he surrendered a disastrous 9.18 ERA in four starts back in April and was quickly demoted to the minors. He’s looked much better since, with a 3.60 ERA and 4.33 FIP in 20 innings of work at the big league level while shuttling between the majors and minors, but he’s been leapfrogged by Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews on the Twins’ rotation depth chart. Minnesota will need to make a corresponding active roster move prior to today’s game to accommodate the addition of Varland.
Sean Manaea Expected To Opt Out Of Mets Deal In Offseason
Left-hander Sean Manaea has signed two-year deals with opt-out provisions in each of the past two offseasons and is poised to reenter the market for a third straight winter. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Manaea will opt out of the second year and $13.5MM on his deal “barring unforeseen circumstances.” The lefty himself spoke to Nightengale about his recent pair of short-term deals, noting that he’d certainly consider a longer-term pact but unlike many other players doesn’t mind the short-term, opt-out-laden route.
“I like to think it’s fun because it’s a new adventure,” Manaea told Nightengale. “I mean, it’s a little nerve-wracking when you’re not with a team most of the offseason, but it’s all part of the adventure.”
Manaea, 33 in February, is in the midst of one of his best seasons. He’s started 27 games and pitched 150 1/3 frames with the Mets, working to a sharp 3.35 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. After favoring his four-seamer over the past two seasons with the Padres and Giants, Manaea has returned to the sinker he sported with the Athletics as his primary offering, throwing the pitch 40.8% of the time. He’s maintained the increased usage of his slider (26%) at the expense of his changeup (11.7%) — while still throwing occasional four-seamers and cutters.
The new pitch blend has proven largely effective. Manaea is averaging 5 2/3 innings per outing, sitting on what’s nearly a career-high strikeout rate and only issuing walks at a slightly above-average clip. He’s kept the ball in the yard (0.96 HR/9) and done a decent job avoiding hard contact (88.8 mph average exit velocity, 38.2% hard-hit rate). He’s not drawing tons of chases off the plate (27%), but his opponents are making contact on those swings at the second-lowest rate of Manaea’s career (53.4%).
Manaea has long seemed capable of putting together this type of season. He regularly posts better-than-average walk rates and average or better strikeout rates. He was in the consideration to go in the top 10 selections of the 2013 draft but slipped to the No. 34 pick by the Royals due to a hip injury. That was the first of a few notable injury scenarios for Manaea, who most notably missed nearly all of the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the 2018 campaign.
Since that surgery-ruined season, Manaea has been a durable source of innings. He started a nearly full slate of 11 games in the shortened 2020 season and has since appeared in 32, 30, 37 and 27 games per season. The Giants frequently used him as a multi-inning reliever and bulk pitcher behind openers in 2023, hence that year’s 27 relief outings, but he still pitched 117 2/3 frames that year. Manaea hasn’t been on the injured list since returning from that 2018 shoulder procedure.
Given how well he’s pitched for much of the season, it’s hardly surprising that Manaea is intent on once again exploring free agency. A guaranteed multi-year deal should be there this time around, unless Manaea has come to enjoy the mercenary life and having say over his team on a yearly basis. Because he’ll he heading into his age-33 season, a four-year deal is likely the ceiling, and three years seems more reasonable to expect. Even if Manaea “only” secures a two-year guarantee, he’d almost certainly do so while signing for an annual value higher than the $13.5MM under his current contract.
The more interesting question surrounding Manaea will be one of the qualifying offer. The Mets can extend a QO to Manaea if he declines his player option, thus entitling themselves to a compensatory draft pick if Manaea signs elsewhere. They’d need to be comfortable paying Manaea the projected $21.2MM sum of this year’s QO, however.
On its surface, that’s a drop in the bucket for a deep-pocketed club like the Mets. But the Mets have paid the luxury tax every season under Steve Cohen’s ownership, falling into the top tier of penalty in the past two seasons. RosterResource projects them for a $171MM figure next year that’s well below the forthcoming $241MM tax barrier, but the Mets could see Manaea, Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, J.D. Martinez, Adam Ottavino, Harrison Bader, Ryne Stanek, Brooks Raley, Phil Maton and Jesse Winker all hit free agency. They’ll have many, many holes to fill and it won’t take much to push them right back up into luxury territory.
If the Mets return to the top tier of penalization — they’re already rumored to be among Juan Soto‘s suitors and will presumably pursue other high-end targets, particularly in the rotation — that would mean a 110% tax on that salary. That’d be a total of $44.52MM if Manaea accepts. Even if they’re in a lower tier, a 62% tax or 95% tax would still put Manaea’s total expenditure on a QO in the $34-41MM range. And, as a luxury-paying team, the Mets would only receive a comp pick after the fourth round in the event that Manaea signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation and huge tax bill might allow Manaea to hit the market without the burden of draft compensation, which would only further strengthen his free-agent case on the heels of a strong season.
Orioles Outright Forrest Wall
The Orioles announced this afternoon that outfielder Forrest Wall cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk. He does not have the requisite service time nor the previous career outright that would allow him to elect free agency.
Baltimore claimed Wall off waivers from the Marlins last week. They designated him for assignment within a few days. Wall has not played for the Orioles. He has 31 big league games under his belt, split between the Braves and Miami within the past two years. Wall has an impressive .311/.380/.422 slash in that limited time. His Triple-A track record is more modest, as he’s a .269/.355/.387 hitter through 369 games at that level.
The 28-year-old generally gets on base at a decent clip. He doesn’t hit for much power, though, and he’s not regarded as a great defensive outfielder. That’s despite fantastic speed that translates on the bases. Wall has four seasons with at least 35 stolen bases in the minors. He topped the 50-steal threshold in both 2022 and ’23, though he’s 20-28 in that regard between MLB and Triple-A this year. The O’s will keep Wall in Norfolk for the stretch run and could reselect his contract if they want to add a designated pinch-runner. He’d qualify for minor league free agency next offseason if Baltimore doesn’t call him back up.
Latest On Yankees’ Rotation Plans
The Yankees plan to activate Clarke Schmidt from the 60-day injured list to start against the Cubs on Saturday, tweets Chris Kirschner of the Athletic. The right-hander has made three minor league rehab appearances, reaching 4 2/3 innings on 70 pitches in Double-A yesterday.
Schmidt has been out since late May due to a lat strain. That interrupted what looked like a breakout showing for the former first-round pick. Schmidt worked to a 2.52 earned run average while striking out more than 27% of batters faced through 60 2/3 innings. It had started to represent a major step forward from his 2023 work. Schmidt had stayed healthy enough to log 159 frames over 33 appearances last year, though he did so with a pedestrian 4.64 ERA and an average 21.5% strikeout percentage.
Through the season’s first couple months, the Yankees had perhaps the best rotation in the American League. They haven’t maintained that level. Going back to the May 27 retroactive date of Schmidt’s IL placement, New York’s starters rank 24th with a 4.74 earned run average. Of their six starters with 20+ innings in that time, only Gerrit Cole has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine.
Cole’s 3.65 ERA is itself a disappointment for a defending Cy Young winner. Luis Gil has been inconsistent. Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman each have an ERA in the high 4.00s over the past few months. Carlos Rodón had a terrible June, though he has been more effective in recent weeks (and had a dominant 11-strikeout performance tonight).
Schmidt’s return could eventually push one of the veterans from the rotation. Cortes is the likeliest candidate to be squeezed out. Skipper Aaron Boone said on Tuesday that the left-hander will pitch in relief behind either Gil or Schmidt in Chicago (link via Greg Joyce of the New York Post). That’s not officially a demotion, as Cortes will draw back into the rotation next week. New York is off on Thursday but begins a stretch of 10 consecutive game days with the Cubs series. They’ll go to a six-man rotation to get through that run before making a decision on whether to push someone to relief for the rest of the season.
The upcoming relief appearance will be Cortes’ first in three years. He established himself in the rotation with an All-Star showing in 2022. The southpaw struggled through injury last season. Cortes has been healthy this season, tossing 159 innings while tying for the AL lead with 28 starts. His overall production — a 4.08 ERA, 22.1% strikeout percentage and 4.9% walk rate — is solid, but he has a 5.17 ERA in 10 appearances since the start of July. New York considered moving Cortes at the deadline but elected to hold him after moving away from their discussions with the Tigers on Jack Flaherty (reportedly because of an unspecified issue with Flaherty’s medicals).
Giants Playing Marco Luciano At Second Base
The Giants recalled Marco Luciano and Luis Matos from Triple-A Sacramento this afternoon. San Francisco optioned Blake Sabol and Casey Schmitt in corresponding moves. Luciano is in tonight’s lineup at second base against Arizona’s Ryne Nelson. It seems that’ll be a frequent occurrence this month.
Manager Bob Melvin told reporters this evening that the Giants will play Luciano regularly at the keystone for the season’s final few weeks (relayed on X by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). Tonight’s start there will be the 22-year-old’s first second base action in the big leagues.
Luciano is no stranger to the middle infield. He has started 19 MLB games at shortstop over the last two years. He has nearly 2500 shortstop innings in the minors. Luciano has made 27 appearances at second base in his minor league career, all but six of which have come this season with Sacramento.
Despite his ample shortstop experience, the rookie infielder struggled at the position earlier in the year. He was charged with five errors in only 60 innings. Luciano’s fielding percentage sat at a dismal .865, and while that almost certainly would’ve risen in a larger sample, the frequency of the mistakes led the Giants to quickly decide that he wasn’t ready for everyday shortstop work. San Francisco flirted with playing him at designated hitter after the Jorge Soler deadline trade. That didn’t last long either, and he has all of 48 plate appearances over 17 MLB games this year.
The Giants’ playoff hopes have been all but officially ended, so the next few weeks are primarily about evaluation. Luciano’s development is one of the organization’s key storylines. Scouting reports have long touted his raw power, but that has yet to translate against upper level pitching. Luciano has four extra-base hits (three doubles and a triple) in 31 career big league contests. He only has 10 homers with a .250/.380/.380 batting line over 384 plate appearances in the Pacific Coast League this year. A near-17% walk rate has driven a huge on-base mark, but he’s striking out 27% of the time without making much of a power impact.
Luciano is a few days shy of his 23rd birthday, so there’s still plenty of time for him to figure things out. The Giants haven’t given him any kind of consistent run against MLB pitching before now. That said, his pedestrian upper minors production and the ongoing questions about his long-term defensive home leave a lot unsettled.
Acclimating well to second base could at least address the latter question. The Giants are going to need a long-term solution at the position. Thairo Estrada has held the job for the past three-plus years. He has had a very poor ’24 campaign, though, and the Giants outrighted him off the roster last week. Estrada remains in the organization for now, but the Giants will almost certainly move on during the upcoming offseason: either by allowing him to elect minor league free agency or declining to tender him an arbitration contract.
Luciano will need to tighten things up defensively if he’s to stick on the infield at all. Scouts’ questions about his chances of playing shortstop have been more about his hands and lateral mobility than any issues with his arm strength. Four of his five errors at the position were of the fielding variety. That’d be problematic no matter where he is on the dirt, though perhaps moving off the infield’s most demanding spot would allow him to be more comfortable.
Erasmo Ramirez Accepts Outright Assignment With Rays
Erasmo Ramírez accepted an assignment to Triple-A Durham after being outrighted by the Rays. Tampa Bay had designated the veteran long reliever for assignment late last week.
It’s the second DFA of the year for Ramírez. Tampa Bay ran him through waivers in late May and kept him in Durham until August 26. The Rays brought Ramírez back for a few days, getting him into two games before pulling him off the roster. Ramírez tossed two scoreless innings against the Mariners in his first outing, but the Padres tagged him for two runs on four walks across 2 2/3 frames during his second appearance.
On the season, Ramírez has tossed 20 2/3 innings across 13 low-leverage relief outings. He has a 4.35 ERA with a below-average 17.6% strikeout rate and a lofty 11.8% walk percentage. He has turned in very strong numbers for Durham, pitching to a 3.02 ERA with plus strikeout (28.6%) and walk (6.5%) numbers over 47 2/3 frames.
Ramírez is clearly comfortable with the Rays, as he has signed there on multiple occasions and now accepted a pair of outright assignments. He’ll stick around for the season’s final month and will be a free agent at year’s end. The 34-year-old will likely look for another minor league contract during the upcoming offseason.
Royals’ Manager Matt Quatraro To Return To Team On Wednesday
September 3: Quatraro attended a memorial service after the passing of his mother Dorann Stagnitta at age 84, reports Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star. He is expected to return to the team before tomorrow’s game against the Guardians. MLBTR sends our condolences and best wishes to Quatraro and his family.
September 2: The Royals announced this morning that manager Matt Quatraro is away from the team while he tends to a personal matter. While Quatraro is away, bench coach Paul Hoover is set to serve as the club’s manager. It’s as of now unclear how long Quatraro expects to be away from the club.
Quatraro, 50, took the reins in Kansas City following the club’s decision to fire Mike Matheny after the 2022 season. His rookie season as manager was a tough one, as he piloted the club to a dreadful 56-106 record and a last place finish in the AL Central. A midseason breakout from star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. provided some optimism for the future, however, and the Royals decided to invest in attempting to contend in the short term over the offseason by handing free agent deals to veteran pieces like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Despite those investments, the Royals entered the 2024 campaign widely expected to miss the playoffs for the ninth consecutive season.
The club has shattered those expectations under Quatraro’s guidance, however, as the club has posted an excellent 75-63 record to this point in the year that places them firmly in Wild Card position and 3.5 games behind Cleveland for the AL Central crown in a surprising season that has long seemed sure to earn their skipper consideration for the AL Manager of the Year award this fall. As the club gears up for the final month of the regular season, however, they’ll be without Quatraro for an indefinite amount of time.
Taking Quatraro’s place at the helm of the Royals for the time being is Hoover, 48. A former big leaguer who appeared in 40 games across seven seasons between 2001 and 2010, Hoover joined the Royals as Quatraro’s bench coach last year. Prior to taking his current role in Kansas City, he served as the manager of the Rays’ rookie ball team in 2012 before later serving as the club’s minor league catching coordinator and eventually being promoted to the big league staff as the club’s major league field coordinator. He served on Kevin Cash‘s coaching staff in that role from 2019 to 2022. Now, Hoover will be tasked with piloting the surprise contenders through at least part of the season’s final stretch, and potentially into the postseason depending on the length of Quatraro’s absence.
The Brewers’ Rotation Is Holding Up
The Brewers have the best run differential in MLB. Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by 139 runs, putting them 14 runs clear of the second-place Yankees’ +125 gap. Milwaukee is coasting to another division title and sit half a game behind the Phillies for the #2 seed in the National League, which would give them a first-round bye in the postseason.
It’s not a shock that the Brewers are good. They’ve proven time and again they’re capable of outperforming a middling payroll to compete for a playoff spot. Yet few would’ve predicted they’d be this good: 24 games over .500 with the largest division lead in baseball. Milwaukee’s previous success was built largely around the three-headed rotation monster of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Between the Burnes trade and Woodruff’s shoulder injury, they’ve been forced to make do with a far less established rotation. Milwaukee’s rotation might not have the firepower it once did, yet it has held all the same.
Brewers starters are 12th in the majors with a 3.92 earned run average. That’s already an achievement considering the challenges of pitching at Miller Park, and they’ve been even better lately. Since the trade deadline, only the Astros and Tigers have a lower rotation ERA than Milwaukee does. Detroit’s mark is skewed by frequent use of openers; Tiger “starters” have an MLB-low 112 1/3 innings since the end of July. Milwaukee’s starters have tied for the third-most innings over that stretch (174 2/3), narrowly behind Houston and the Mets. For the past month and change, the Astros and Brewers have had the most valuable rotations in the league.
Not coincidentally, they were two of the league’s best teams last month. While Houston’s rotation turnaround has been a big story in its own right, Milwaukee’s rotation performance is probably more surprising. The Brewers signed Jakob Junis to take a season-opening rotation spot; he made one start, got hurt, and was eventually moved at the deadline. Wade Miley and Robert Gasser each blew out early in the season. Joe Ross and DL Hall each spent multiple months on the injured list.
The Brewers have given multiple starts to 13 different pitchers this year (15 if one includes the opener appearances by Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny). They’ve only had three pitchers top 50 innings working from the rotation in a Milwaukee uniform. Still, between a pair of unexpected contributors and two buy-low deadline pickups, they’re trending towards October with a settled starting five.
Peralta has headlined the group. He’s the team leader in starts (28) and innings (153 2/3). Peralta carries a 3.75 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout rate. While he can battle the home run ball at times, Peralta is one of the better pitchers in the league. He was supposed to deliver at the front of the rotation, and he has.
The pitchers coming after Peralta entered the year with a lot less fanfare. Colin Rea logged 124 2/3 innings over 26 appearances a year ago. He posted a 4.55 ERA with middling peripherals. When Milwaukee brought him back on a $4.5MM deal on November 2, the most notable aspect of the deal seemed to be its timing — a few days before the official opening of free agency. Rea secured a spot in the Opening Day rotation, likely as the #5 arm.
Through four months, Rea ranks narrowly behind Peralta for second on the team in innings. He has tossed a career-high 146 frames with a solid 3.70 ERA. His 8% swinging strike rate and 19.4% strikeout percentage still suggest he’s more of a back-end arm, but Rea has thus far avoided any regression in terms of run prevention. He has an ERA between 3.25 and 4.22 in every month of the season, welcome consistency for a rotation that has dealt with significant injuries.
Rea has been a surprisingly key contributor, though he at least started the year on the MLB roster. That wasn’t the case for Tobias Myers, who has gone from minor league signee to #3 starter. The 26-year-old righty was a prospect of some regard early in his career, performing well through Double-A. Cleveland acquired Myers in a regrettable trade that sent future top prospect Junior Caminero to the Rays. Triple-A hitters obliterated him in 2022, leading multiple teams to cut him loose without giving him a look at the big league level.
Myers signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee going into 2023. He spent most of the season in Double-A, where he racked up huge strikeout totals against generally younger opposition. Myers never got himself back on the prospect radar, but he earned a look from the Brewers in mid-April when the rotation was floundering.
Shuttled on and off the active roster through the end of May, Myers had a 5.40 ERA in seven appearances. That’s the kind of production expected from a minor league signee pressed into action. As recently as a few months ago, it wasn’t clear if the Brewers would keep him on the roster all season. Gasser’s injury in early June gave Myers another shot. He has seized it.
Over his past 15 starts, the rookie owns a 2.27 ERA while working nearly six innings per appearance. He has a roughly average 21.1% strikeout rate and is limiting walks to a 6.3% clip. Myers has unquestionably been aided by a meager .264 average on balls in play. He doesn’t miss enough bats to be an ace. Yet even with some level of inevitable regression, Myers looks like a polished strike-thrower who fits in the middle of a rotation. Were it not for an absolutely loaded field in the National League this year, Myers might have gotten some Rookie of the Year attention.
Effective as Rea and Myers had been early in the summer, Milwaukee’s front office understandably viewed the rotation as their priority at the deadline. Myers was early into what has become a three-month stretch of excellent play. Rea’s workload was a question mark. Milwaukee made one of the first pickups of note early in July, bringing in Aaron Civale from the Rays. The night before the deadline, they flipped Junis and young outfielder Joey Wiemer (who’d been mostly squeezed out with the Brewers) to the Reds for Frankie Montas.
Both acquisitions were rebound hopefuls. Civale and Montas had each looked like upper mid-rotation arms at their best, but they’d fallen on harder times. Both pitchers had an ERA narrowly above 5.00 with their previous teams. They’re each allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine in Milwaukee. Civale has a 3.72 mark across 48 1/3 innings as a Brewer. Montas carries a 3.82 ERA in 33 frames following the trade.
Civale’s underlying performance isn’t dramatically different from where it’d been in Tampa Bay. His strikeout and walk profile has gone in the wrong direction. He’s getting more ground-balls with the Brew Crew — somewhat diminishing the home run issues that really plagued him with the Rays — but he’s giving up more contact than ever before. As with Rea and Myers, the change is largely about his ball in play results. Opponents hit .312 on balls in play off Civale with the Rays; that’s down to .257 since the trade.
Montas has shown more obvious signs of improvement. His strikeout rate with the Reds sat a below-average 19%. It’s up to 22.7% in his brief stint in Milwaukee. His fastball velocity has climbed from the 94-95 range to sit more comfortably above 96 MPH this month. Montas’ velocity was steadily building throughout the year in Cincinnati, so perhaps he’d have found this level regardless of where he was traded. Even if that’s the case, the Brewers deserve credit for identifying him as a buy-low target.
All of a sudden, manager Pat Murphy has a number of options he can choose from in constructing a playoff rotation. Milwaukee is going to win the NL Central. They’ll at least play in a three-game Wild Card set. Winning that (or tracking down one of the Dodgers or Phillies for a bye) would guarantee at least a five-game Division Series.
Peralta is the obvious call to pitch the first game. Myers’ recent form probably gives him a leg up as a Game 2 starter, though that could be determined by how well he finishes the regular season. Montas may not be all the way back to the peak he showed with the A’s, but he’s pitching well enough to be a fine choice for either Game 2 or 3. That’d likely leave Murphy to choose between Civale and Rea for a potential fourth game, perhaps in tandem with a multi-inning relief appearance from Hall.
It still may not be an elite starting staff, but it’s hardly a liability. A shorter series will allow Murphy to leverage his excellent relief group more heavily. Late in close games, the scales should tip in Milwaukee’s favor. The rotation now looks strong enough to get them there.
Diamondbacks Place Lourdes Gurriel Jr. On Injured List, Reinstate Christian Walker
The Diamondbacks announced that first baseman Christian Walker has been reinstated from the injured list. He has been out since the end of July due to a strained left oblique. He’ll take the roster spot of outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is heading the other way. Gurriel has been placed on the 10-day IL due to a strained left calf, retroactive to September 2.
The Snakes get one of their lineup regulars back but lose another. Walker hit 23 home runs and produced a batting line of .254/.338/.476 before landing on the IL, production that translated to a 122 wRC+. He also routinely gets strong grades for his defense at first base, so he’s been worth 2.7 wins above replacement on the year despite his absence, per the calculations of FanGraphs.
Gurriel departed Sunday game due to some tightness in his calf and was sent for an MRI. It’s unclear exactly how much time the club expects him to miss, but the IL placement suggests he needs at least a week or so to rest up. He has 17 home runs and a line of .274/.316/.428 this year, leading to a 104 wRC+. He has strong defensive grades in the outfield as well, leading to a 1.8 fWAR tally on the year.
Subbing in Walker for Gurriel is a slight upgrade for the club in a vacuum, but it will be an interesting roster fit for manager Torey Lovullo to work out. The Snakes acquired Josh Bell to help cover first base in Walker’s absence and he has played well since that trade, with a .283/.356/.453 line and 125 wRC+. The designated hitter slot is usually taken by Joc Pederson, who is hitting .280/.400/.533 for a 157 wRC+ this year.
Pederson is faring well in his limited looks against southpaws this year but has notable career splits and has generally been shielded from opposing lefties. Bell is a switch-hitter and should at least be able to take the short side of a platoon with Pederson, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to get more playing time beyond that. Pederson is a poor defender and hasn’t been put out into the field at all this year. He got 204 innings in the field with the Giants last year but produced -5 Defensive Runs Saved and -4 Outs Above Average in that limited time.
With Gurriel out, the Snakes have an opportunity to move Pederson out there while opening the DH slot for Bell/Walker, but they will have to weigh the defensive hit against the offensive gain. Randal Grichuk has strong numbers against lefty pitchers this year, 128 wRC+ against them compared to a 96 wRC+ without the platoon advantage. Theoretically, he could take the field against southpaws with Bell as the DH, then Pederson could take the field against righties. Though perhaps they might simply prefer to have Grichuk out there since he’s a stronger defender than Pederson, perhaps factoring in the pitcher and opposing lineup, calculating whether they think the left fielder will see a lot of action on a given day.