Phillies, Hector Neris Avoid Arbitration
1:38pm: The option is priced at $7MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), but that value can move significantly north. It’ll cost an extra $50K for every five games finished, beginning at his 10th and ending at his 35th. The needle moves $100K at 40, 45, and 50 games finished. And the option price jumps $200K at numbers 55, 60, and 63. That adds up to $1.2MM in total potential escalators.
9:42am: The Phillies have announced their agreement with Neris, revealing that the contract also contains a club option for the 2021 season. That it’s not a straight one-year pact perhaps explains the reason that the team broke from the file-and-trial approach. If the team ultimately declines the option, Neris would still remain under club control as an arbitration-eligible player.
7:35am: The Phillies have avoided an arbitration hearing with right-hander Hector Neris, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports (via Twitter). The last-minute settlement will guarantee Neris a $4.6MM salary for the upcoming season. Neris settled slightly below the midpoint between his own $5.2MM submission and the club’s $4.25MM counter.
Neris, 30, racked up 28 saves as the Phillies’ primary closer in 2019, pitching to a strong 2.93 ERA with averages of 11.8 strikeouts, 3.2 walks and 1.33 home runs per nine innings pitched. He appeared in 68 games and tallied 67 2/3 innings en route to an impressive rebound effort from a down year in 2018. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time next winter before reaching free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.
The one-year arrangement represents a rarity in today’s arbitration environment. Virtually all clubs utilize a “file and trial” approach to the process — meaning that once figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year settlement cease, leaving the two sides to determine the player’s salary in a hearing. (Multi-year deals are typically still negotiated if there’s mutual interest, however.) Astros outfielder George Springer also avoided arb on a one-year deal last month, although that agreement was seemingly negotiated directly with owner Jim Crane after he dismissed president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow.
The Phillies won an arbitration hearing over All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto yesterday, thus keeping his salary at the $10MM figure they submitted — as opposed to Realmuto’s own $12.4MM submission. With their arbitration cases now resolved, the Phillies should check in with a bottom-line payroll just north of $182.5MM and roughly $203.9MM in luxury tax commitments (per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). That leaves them just over $4MM shy of the luxury tax barrier.
With Neris’ salary now in place, the last pending arbitration result is that of D-backs closer Archie Bradley (as reflected in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker).
Phillies Win Arbitration Hearing Against J.T. Realmuto
The Phillies won their arbitration hearing against catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. He’ll earn the $10MM salary figure the team submitted for his final season of club control. Realmuto’s camp at CAA had filed for a $12.4MM sum (as shown in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker).
Realmuto, who’ll turn 29 next month, enjoyed a strong first year with the Phillies in 2019 after being acquired in a trade that sent catcher Jorge Alfaro and top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez to the Marlins. In 145 games and 593 plate appearances, Realmuto slashed .275/.328/.493 with 25 home runs, 36 doubles, three triples and even nine stolen bases. He also paced the Majors with a 47 percent caught-stealing rate behind the dish and posted some of the best framing marks of his career.
The Phillies have made their interest in working out a long-term deal with Realmuto, and he’s voiced an openness if not a desire to remain in Philly for the long haul as well. While some might question whether the loss in an arb hearing will fracture that potential for a contract extension, Realmuto himself previously indicated that he doesn’t view the arbitration process in a negative light. “I know it’s not the Phillies trying to slight me at all,” he told reporters last month. “It’s more the system. There’s no hard feelings there.”
Given general manager Matt Klentak’s repeated praise for Realmuto, it’d be a surprise if the two sides didn’t at least try to work out an extension that’d keep the two-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger and one-time Gold Glove Award winner from reaching the open market next winter. As it stands, though, Realmuto ranks among the top five projected free agents next year.
With the Phillies’ win over Realmuto, teams are up 7-4 against players in the arbitration results in 2020. The Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez), Dodgers (Joc Pederson) Twins (Jose Berrios), Braves (Shane Greene), Brewers (Josh Hader) and Rockies (Tony Wolters) have each won arbitration cases that went to trial. The Dodgers also lost a case, though (Pedro Baez). Marlins first baseman Jesus Aguilar, Angels outfielder Brian Goodwin and Astros infielder Aledmys Diaz have won hearings against their clubs as well.
Camp Battles: Phillies’ Rotation
Finishing an even 81-81, the Phillies were a disappointment in 2019, in part because of their rotation. Their starting staff wound up 17th in the majors in ERA, 20th in K/BB ratio and 23rd in fWAR. The subpar production from the Phillies’ group of starters contributed to the team’s eighth straight year without a playoff berth, but the club has since since made a real effort to improve its rotation and better its chances of earning a postseason spot in 2020.
The Phillies’ biggest move of the winter was signing right-hander Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM guarantee. He’s now near the top of a staff that’ll also include Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta from one through three. Right-hander Zach Eflin‘s set to occupy the fourth position, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, which leaves a handful of names vying for the last place in the Phillies’ rotation. Touted prospect Spencer Howard could make his debut this year, but the Phillies will bring him along slowly, so it doesn’t seem he’s in the running for a season-opening rotation spot. Here’s a look at those who are…
- Vince Velasquez, RHP: The 27-year-old Velasquez throws hard (around 94 mph), but his ERA has hung around the 5.00 mark in recent seasons. He worked out of the Phillies’ rotation and bullpen last year, striking out just under 10 batters per nine (against 3.11 BB/9) from the team’s rotation. Problem is that Velasquez didn’t do well to prevent runs in either role. He ended up with a 4.91 ERA/5.21 FIP over 117 1/3 innings.
- Nick Pivetta, RHP: Pivetta was an effective starter for the Phillies as recently as 2018, but the wheels came off last season. He concluded the year with an ugly 5.38 ERA/5.47 FIP in 93 2/3 innings, some of which came as a reliever, though he did continue to post an average fastball upward of 94 mph.
- Ranger Suarez, LHP: The 24-year-old Suarez didn’t make a single start for the Phillies last season, but he did turn in a 3.14 ERA/3.89 FIP with 7.77 K/9, 2.22 BB/9 and a 55.1 percent groundball rate in 48 2/3 innings from their bullpen. Suarez does have quite a bit of starting experience in various levels of the minors, though. He owns a 4.02 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 87 1/3 innings in Triple-A ball.
- Cole Irvin, LHP: Irvin, 26, made his major league debut last season, mostly working from the Phillies’ bullpen. He tossed 41 2/3 frames of 5.83 ERA/5.06 FIP ball with 6.7 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9. Irvin was far better as a Triple-A pitcher from 2018-19, during which he logged a 3.07 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 255 innings.
- Damon Jones, LHP: Jones, 25, was an 18th-round pick of the Phillies in 2017 who hasn’t gotten to the majors yet, but he does rank as their 20th-best prospect at MLB.com. However, Jones had difficulty across a 34-inning Triple-A debut last season, when he walked just under seven batters per nine. Overall, Jones has issued free passes to a bit under five hitters per nine in the minors, so despite a lofty K/9 (11.1), it’s difficult to imagine him opening the season in Philly’s rotation if he doesn’t significantly improve his control.
Phillies Outright Nick Martini
The Phillies have outrighted outfielder Nick Martini after he cleared waivers, according to a team announcement. He’s going to stay in camp as a non-roster player.
Martini, 29, was recently dropped from the menu in favor of new addition Kyle Garlick. They’ll end up competing to join the same outfield mix, though the former is a left-handed hitter and the latter swings from the right side.
This worked out well for the Phils, as they’ll get to keep the depth on hand for the rest of camp. Martini had a nice 2018 showing in the majors but drooped in the next campaign. He owns a .401 career OBP through nearly fifteen hundred career plate appearances at Triple-A.
NL East Notes: Realmuto, Neris, Lowrie, Adams, Braves
The arbitration hearings for Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto and reliever Hector Neris are coming up this week, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports, with Realmuto’s case being heard on Wednesday and Neris on Friday. Once Realmuto’s case has been decided, Phils GM Matt Klentak said “we’ll come to the table and see if we can find common ground on a long-term deal. I hope that we can. It would be nice to have some resolution prior to Opening Day….If we can’t, we could always continue those talks during the season or even into free agency if we can.”
I recently explored what an extension might look like for Realmuto, and the pros and cons that both he and the team will be weighing in trying to work out a deal. Both sides have expressed mutual interest in an extension dating back to the end of last season, and Realmuto continued to be optimistic that a multi-year agreement can be reached. “I could see myself staying in Philly and playing my entire career here,” Realmuto told NBC Sports Philadelphia’s John Clark. “Also being one year away from free agency, that wouldn’t be a bad thing for me either, but I don’t think it will get to that. I think the Phillies and myself could line up pretty well.”
More buzz from around the NL East…
- Jed Lowrie‘s first season with the Mets saw him limited to eight plate appearances and nine games due to a variety of leg problems, and these injury concerns appear to still be an issue heading into the 2020 campaign. Lowrie wore a brace on his left leg during his first day in Spring Training camp, and told reporters (including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News) that the brace “alleviates my symptoms and makes me feel like myself.” Aside from saying that his left knee was the main cause of his leg problems, Lowrie didn’t provide much detail on his condition, saying that he was planning to participate in camp exercises with an eye towards being ready for Opening Day. It remains to be seen how (or even if) Lowrie will be deployed by the Mets this season, as he’ll be fighting for playing time within their crowded infield and might yet still end up on another team, if the Mets can find a taker for his contract.
- Matt Adams might be the latest name to join the Mets’ outfield picture, as the veteran tells Newsday’s Tim Healey that he is working out as a left fielder. Adams appeared in 34 games as a left fielder in 2017-18 but left field is “still a fairly new position for me, so the more reps the better,” he said. “I think just getting with the coaching staff and seeing how I can incorporate both — get my work in at first base, get work in in the outfield and get more comfortable out there.” Adams signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, and since his natural first base position is blocked by Pete Alonso, any positional flexibility can only help Adams’ chances of winning a spot on the 26-man roster.
- Tyler Flowers is entering his fifth season behind the plate for the Braves, set to again participate in another timeshare, this time with the newly-signed Travis d’Arnaud. The club’s strategy of more or less splitting the playing time between two catchers every season is a sound one, Flowers tells Steve Hummer of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, as “It has been a good way to balance starts and kind of keep both catchers fresh.” Relying on a more traditional starter/backup allotment of playing time would make things tough on an everyday catcher since “It’s extremely difficult to start 120 [games] in Atlanta. With the conditions, it makes it almost impossible. I have a more difficult time than most with the heat and sweating and cramping, so I know it would be a challenge for me.”
NL Notes: Wong, Nationals, Martinez, Howard
Some notes from around the National League:
- Kolten Wong would be open to discussing a long-term extension with the Cardinals, he told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch this week. The 29-year-old has settled in as a productive everyday second baseman in recent seasons. Since the start of 2017, Wong has compiled a productive .274/.357/.409 slash (105 wRC+). More importantly, he’s emerged as one of the game’s top defenders at the keystone. Wong will make $10.25MM in 2020, the final guaranteed year of the early-career extension he signed. St. Louis also holds a $12.5MM club option ($1MM) on his services that would easily be exercised if he continues to produce at his recent levels.
- The Nationals’ World Series winning 2019 season started dreadfully, as they won just 19 of their first 50 games. Last fall, ownership said they never considered parting ways with manager Dave Martinez amidst the slow start. One more bad week last May, though, and the front office could have contemplated a change, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. One name discussed internally as a potential Martinez replacement: Buck Showalter, who, as Rosenthal notes, worked with Nats GM Mike Rizzo in Arizona from 1998-2000. Of course, that’s little more than an historical footnote now, as Martinez should be on solid footing after leading a remarkable turnaround. He and Rizzo are each entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts (although the Nationals have an option on Martinez for 2021). That said, neither Martinez nor Rizzo expressed worry about their situations as camp opens, and Rosenthal writes that “chances are” both will eventually work out extensions.
- The Phillies plan to start top pitching prospect Spencer Howard slowly in 2020, the organization tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The hope is to conserve some innings in the early going so the organization needn’t worry about shutting Howard down if they find themselves in a playoff race. “Every pitch he throws in March is a pitch he’s not going to be able to throw in September,” GM Matt Klentak told Lauber. “It’s not because something is wrong, and it’s not because we don’t like him. It’s because we like him a lot, and we need to set him up for success to pitch deep into the season this year.” The 23-year-old, Baseball America’s #27 overall prospect, threw fewer than 100 minor-league innings in 2019, in part due to a midseason shutdown with shoulder soreness. Nevertheless, it seems he’s likely to make his MLB debut at some point in 2020 now that his arm is fully healthy.
Phillies Acquire Kyle Garlick From Dodgers
The Phillies and Dodgers have agreed to a trade that will send outfielder Kyle Garlick to the Phillies, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. In return, the Dodgers will receive minor league left-hander Tyler Gilbert. To clear a spot for Garlick on the 40-man roster, outfielder Nick Martini was designated for assignment.
Garlick had been designated earlier this week. He got a brief taste of the Majors with the Dodgers in 2019, appearing in 30 games and slashing .250/.321/.521 with three home runs. It was a nice showing from the 28-year-old rookie, who will have to show that he can hang around in the big leagues after an impressive showing at Triple-A.
With two minor league options remaining, Garlick could be a nice reserve option for the Phillies in the corner outfield. He’ll compete with the likes of Nick Williams, Roman Quinn, and Jay Bruce for bench at-bats. For what it’s worth, Garlick is the only true righty of that group (Quinn is a switch-hitter).
Gilbert is a 26-year-old reliever who was the Phillies’ 6th-round pick in 2015. He spent all of last season at Triple-A, pitching 47 2/3 innings of 2.83-ERA baseball, striking out 46 batters. With the Dodgers’ crowded bullpen unit, he’s a long shot to genuinely contend for a roster spot, but he at least represents good depth, especially in case of injuries.
Zack Wheeler Heard “Crickets” From Mets In Free Agency
Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler and the Mets are engaged in a public feud. Wheeler, a Met from 2013-19, joined the Phillies on a five-year, $118MM contract during the offseason. However, Wheeler indicated Thursday that he had hoped to remain with his longtime team, revealing (via Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that he reached out to the Mets to gauge their interest in re-signing him before he became a Phillie. But Wheeler said he only heard “crickets” from the Mets, adding: “Because it’s them. It’s how they roll.”
Wheeler went on to suggest the Mets are a dysfunctional organization, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen took exception to his comments. Van Wagenen expressed “surprise” in regards to Wheeler’s statements, per Tim Britton of The Athletic. The GM also noted, “I feel like this organization supported him in giving him the opportunity to reach major league success.” He then took a shoot at Wheeler, contending, “Our health and performance department, our coaches, all contributed and helped him parlay two good half-seasons over the last five years into $118MM.”
It should be pointed out that Wheeler has produced palatable results in every season but 2017 – his first year back from a March 2015 Tommy John procedure that helped cost him two campaigns. He has otherwise totaled three seasons with at least 180 innings and ERAs somewhere in the threes. The hard-throwing Wheeler was statistically one of the most effective starters in baseball from 2018-19, during which he put up a 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP ERA with 8.91 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 377 2/3 frames. Considering that, Van Wagenen’s snipe doesn’t ring true.
Neither side may look great in this situation, but the spat does make a division rivalry even more interesting. Both teams are looking up at the Braves and the Nationals in the NL East, though all four are arguably good enough on paper to at least compete for the division. Wheeler was the Phillies’ big-ticket acquisition during the winter, while the Mets still boast a strong rotation even in the wake of his departure. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz lead the group, and the Mets have added Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha since free agency opened.
Klentak, MacPhail On Phillies’ Stance Towards Luxury Tax
As the Phillies have ramped up their spending in recent years, the question has become inevitable: will they cross the luxury tax line for the first time, and if so when? GM Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail discussed the subject in camp, as Scott Lauber and Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer report.
Even as Klentak downplayed the importance of the $208MM line in the team’s decisionmaking, he also seemed to acknowledge it as a rather prominent factor in the internal decisionmaking process. Klentak labeled the Competitive Balance Tax line a “guide” rather than a “barrier.”
The rubber meets the road when a stated principle is put to a real-world test. Klentak says that hasn’t quite happened just yet, explaining that the team “never got to the point of really asking ownership about [any moves] because we never lined up a baseball trade that we thought was right.” If and when an opportunity arises that would force the Phils to foot a luxury bill, Klentak says he “would expect to have a good, productive dialogue with our owners about” the matter.
MacPhail suggested a clearer desire to push into the luxury realm if circumstances warrant. “It’s my hope and frankly my expectation that we’re going to exceed it this year,” he said. Read one way, that’s a strong indication that the club intends to spend. Read another, it’s an acknowledgement that the organization will plunk down more cash if the team finds itself in a competitive enough position. That’ll mean waiting to find out how the already assembled roster can perform.
In comments of more general interest — to the MLBPA, if not the casual fan — MacPhail laid out rather clearly how teams — even those with revenues as great as the Phillies — view the function of the tax. “Nobody can live over it,” MacPhail says of the luxury line. “The penalties are too severe — not just economically, but it grabs you every different way.”
It probably won’t take much to force a decision on the luxury tax matter. The Phils are right up on it already. Cot’s on Contracts has the club sitting at $203MM in CBT payroll, which is also Lauber’s estimate. Roster Resource has that number over $2MM higher, which would mean even less breathing room.
Calculating payroll for CBT purposes is an evolving process, of course. Decisions taken during the season can move it up or down. And it isn’t as if there is any drastic penalty for going over (just 20% on the amount over the line). The actual financial hit only ramps up when you go into higher tax penalty levels and do so over multiple seasons.
So, what does this all mean from a practical perspective? Perhaps Klentak should be taken at his word when he says the team is pleased with the talent it has assembled, which includes a long list of notable veterans on non-roster deals. There’s obviously room to improve and deepen the pitching staff and/or to add an established performer at third base or center field. But that’ll require a higher level of ownership involvement to complete, unless Klentak can work something out that’s mostly cost-neutral.
Odds are, any movement past the line — should it occur — will happen during the season. MacPhail says the club intends to “evaluate what we have and make a determination in-season as if we are going to go over or not.” The front office has seemingly already committed most of the money it has been allocated, even if its spending is viewed as a guide rather than a “hard barrier.”
Latest On Cubs, Kris Bryant
TODAY: Casting further cold water on the Bryant/Arenado rumors, a source tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that this speculation could be “media noise” from the Cubs themselves, trying to spur on better offers from other teams (i.e. the Phillies, Nationals, Braves) that could have interest in Bryant.
FEBRUARY 12: When Major League Basbeall’s offseason started, the Cubs looked like one of the sport’s most intriguing teams. After collapsing last season and finishing with 84 wins, there was an expectation the Cubs’ roster would undergo a drastic makeover. That hasn’t happened at all, though, and the Cubs have largely been quiet this winter. They’ve made no earth-shattering acquisitions (apologies to Steven Souza Jr., Jason Kipnis and Jeremy Jeffress) or roster-altering trades, though they have lost a few notable players – including Nicholas Castellanos and Cole Hamels – since the winter began.
President of baseball operations Theo Epstein addressed the Cubs’ offseason Tuesday, saying (via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com), “I’ll be honest, it hasn’t been as much turnover as we expected.” Epstein noted, though, that the Cubs aren’t going to make changes for the sake of it, and he still has high expectations for the team as it’s currently constructed.
Chicago does indeed have quite a bit of talent still on hand, and third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant may be atop the list. The former NL MVP continues to be the subject of trade rumors, however, and dealing him and his $18.6MM salary would enable the Cubs’ maligned ownership to get under the $208MM luxury-tax threshold in 2020. As things stand, the Cubs are projected for a tax payroll just south of $214MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs.
If the Cubs are more worried about competing than ducking the tax, the 28-year-old Bryant could remain an important cog in helping them rebound in 2020. However, multiple teams have shown interest in acquiring him. The Rangers, Rockies, Nationals and Phillies have discussed Bryant with the Cubs recently, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.
Aside from the Rockies, who have the disgruntled Nolan Arenado at third base, those teams could use upgrades at the hot corner. There has been talk of an Arenado-Bryant swap, but that has always seemed far-fetched, and there aren’t indications that Bryant will wind up with anyone else imminently. The Cubs could instead choose to keep Bryant, attempt to push for a playoff spot this season and see where they stand around the July trade deadline. Considering that Epstein still believes in the talent the club still has, Chicago may well go that way.