Braves Sign Cole Hamels
1:15pm: The Braves have formally announced the signing and (unlike most clubs) confirmed the terms of the contract in their press release. Their 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.
11:18am: The Braves have struck a one-year deal with lefty Cole Hamels, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s said to include a $18MM guarantee for the John Boggs client.
Hamels can still get the job done as he closes in on his 36th birthday. Despite losing more than a full tick on his fastball from 2018-2019, he generated swings and misses at close to a twelve percent rate — much as he has done throughout his 14-year career. Since landing with the Cubs in the second half of the 2018 campaign, Hamels has spun 218 innings of 3.30 ERA ball over 39 starts while maintaining 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
This match has long made sense — for all the reasons the team decided last year to ink fellow veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel to a rental contract. MLBTR predicted Hamels to land in Atlanta in our ranking of the top fifty free agents.
Entering the winter, we believed Hamels could command a two-year deal at a $15MM AAV. But it emerged soon after the market opened that the veteran southpaw actually preferred a single-season mercenary arrangement. That’s just what he’ll get, and he’ll command a bit of a salary premium by foregoing any long-term security.
Hamels drew widespread interest over the past month. That continued into the month of December, with Bob Nightengale reporting (Twitter link) that a half-dozen organizations were still involved as of yesterday. The Phillies, White Sox, Rangers, and — surprisingly — the Giants were among the teams in the market until the end, per the report.
That Philadelphia link only further increases the NL East intrigue that we’re bound to see in 2020. While he is a few years removed from his tenure with the Phils, Hamels will always be known first and foremost as a long-time Phillies hurler who was one of the team’s key players during its last run of success.
Now, Hamels will try to help the Braves get over the hump. The Atlanta org has won the past two division crowns, but hasn’t yet managed to translate that success into the postseason. Hamels promises to step in for Keuchel as a durable veteran who has been there and done that plenty of times over a long and prosperous career.
This is the latest early strike for the Braves, who have already ticked through quite a few items on the checklist before the Winter Meetings even kick off. Hamels isn’t the top-of-the-rotation arm that might be preferred, but his addition doesn’t preclude further adds. For now, though, the focus will likely remain on re-signing or replacing third baseman Josh Donaldson.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies “Looking At” Stephen Strasburg
While the level of interest isn’t entirely clear, the Phillies are at least considering a move for veteran starter Stephen Strasburg, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The organization is said to be “looking at” plucking a star from the division-rival Nationals for a second consecutive winter.
There are many other possibilities for Strasburg, who wrapped up an outstanding (and rather redemptive) season in D.C. before opting out of his contract in favor of the open market. As Heyman notes, there’s still a sense that Strasburg could well line up again with the Nats. But many of the game’s highest-spending organizations have already shown interest as well.
Strasburg would be a big addition to any rotation, but he’d be of particular import to a Phillies staff that was filled with struggles last year. Like many other teams, the Phils are looking both for impact and reliability. Stras has consistently delivered the former … at least, when healthy. Concerns with his durability are in some regards overstated. He’s fresh off of a dominant and complete season at 31 years of age. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Strasburg has averaged 28 starts and 168 innings annually (including his infamous 2012 shutdown campaign).
While the Phillies have indicated trepidation at coughing up draft compensation to add a free agent, that’s simply the requisite ante to sit at the high-stakes table. Strasburg is a good enough player that teams can mostly ignore the lost draft capital. That’s particularly true now that he has thoroughly erased any doubts (as unjustified as they were in the first place) over his big-game capabilities. Recently crowned the World Series MVP, Strasburg has passed every test thrown at him in the postseason with flying colors. In 55 1/3 career playoff frames, he owns a sparkling 1.46 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9.
Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays
There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.
Here’s more from other areas of the market:
- Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
- The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
- We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
- The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.
Phillies Actively Pursuing Zack Wheeler
There’s momentum in the market for righty Zack Wheeler, who is reportedly already sitting on a nine-figure offer. The Phillies are now perhaps the strongest pursuer of the 29-year-old, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports.
With the Philadelphia organization firmly entering the picture, Wheeler is sitting in an enviable position. There are a host of other teams still in the picture. Olney cites the Reds, White Sox, and Rangers as remaining involved. We’ve previously heard of intense interest from the Twins, who were reportedly still in the picture as of yesterday.
In another report this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) suggests that the Reds and White Sox are the other teams most clearly in the mix with the Phillies. But it’s still a fluid bidding situation, so far as is known publicly. Indeed, Rosenthal adds that the Angels “have shown real interest,” though their status at the moment isn’t clear.
This could be building into a perfect storm for Wheeler, whose big arm and relative youth hold obvious appeal. It seems teams have come to terms with his history of arm issues and are banking on a two-year track record of durability. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we predicted widespread interest to drive Wheeler to a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies. It now seems he will top that guarantee; Olney even floats the possibility that a team will end up offering a sixth year to land the in-demand hurler.
Phillies Non-Tender Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco
The Phillies have non-tendered second baseman Cesar Hernandez and third baseman Maikel Franco, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia was among those to report.
Neither outcome is surprising, but the non-tenders will nonetheless bring about the end of an era for the Phillies’ infield. Both Hernandez and Franco had been mainstays for the Phillies over the past few seasons. The switch-hitting, high-on base Hernandez was the more valuable of the two, as he was a 2.0- to 4.0-fWAR player in each season from 2016-18. Hernandez’s numbers took a step back this year, a 1.7-fWAR season in which he hit .279/.333/.408 with 14 home runs across 667 plate appearances. He’d been slated to receive a $11.8MM in arbitration thereafter, but that was too rich for the Phillies. They’ll now look for another solution at the keystone.
Philly’s also now on the lookout for a new third baseman after cutting Franco, whom the team once viewed as its long-term answer there. But Franco, despite his prodigious power, seldom lived up to the billing after an impressive rookie campaign with the Phillies in 2015. The 27-year-old’s now coming off a season in which he batted a miserable .234/.297/.409 with 17 dingers and minus-0.5 fWAR over 428 PA. He looked like an obvious non-tender candidate thanks to those numbers, and with a projected $6.7MM coming his way in 2020, the Phillies went the expected route and cut him loose.
Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline
With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.
We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…
- The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
- Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
- Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.
Earlier Moves
- The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
- Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
- Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
- The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
- The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
- Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
- Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.
Phillies Claim Trevor Kelley
The Phillies announced that they have claimed righty Trevor Kelley off waivers from the Red Sox. He had been selected to the Boston roster in July.
Kelley, 26, didn’t exactly stake a claim to a permanent job in his brief action last year at the game’s highest level. He didn’t get many swings and misses and surrendered eight earned runs in his first 8 1/3 big league innings.
But there was a reason that the Red Sox called upon the sidearming, sinkerballing newcomer. In his 65 1/3 Triple-A innings, Kelley carried a 1.79 ERA that stood out in the hitter-friendly International League. While his peripherals — 8.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.10 HR/9, 33.5% groundball rate — weren’t exactly eye-popping, Kelley showed enough to make the Phils believe he can at least serve as worthwhile pen depth.
Cubs To Hire Craig Driver As First Base/Catching Coach
The Cubs are set to hire Craig Driver as their new first base and catching coach, ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reports (Twitter link). Driver will replace Will Venable as Chicago’s first base coach, though president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said earlier this month that Venable would be returning to the Cubs’ staff in 2020. The most obvious spot for Venable seems to be at third base, as former third base coach Brian Butterfield left the Cubs to join former manager Joe Maddon in Anaheim.
Driver has spent the last two seasons as the Phils’ receiving coach and bullpen catcher, following five years coaching at Yale, Central Washington University, and the University Of Puget Sound. As the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber outlined in a piece last August, J.T. Realmuto‘s caught-stealing numbers greatly increased on Driver’s watch, as Realmuto’s 46.7% caught stealing percentage in 2019 dwarfed his previous career best of 38.2%. Realmuto’s framing and blocking also improved, as per Baseball Prospectus, turning a player who was already the sport’s best catcher into one of its best all-around performers at any position.
The Cubs would love to see Willson Contreras make such a leap, as Contreras has only been roughly average at throwing out baserunners during his career. Framing has also long been considered an issue for the two-time All-Star, though BP and StatCorner differed wildly in their evaluations of Contreras’ framing work in 2019. StatCorner ranked Contreras as the 17th-best pitch-framer in the game last season, while Baseball Prospectus ranked him 109th of 113 catchers in the Framing Runs category.
As Rogers noted in another tweet, Driver joins a coaching staff that is deep in catching knowledge. Newly-hired manager David Ross and quality assurance coach Mike Napoli have a combined 1344 games of big league experience behind the plate, while current catching, strategy, and associate pitching coach Mike Borzello still seems to be a member of the 2020 staff. It could be that Driver’s responsibilities will continue to focus largely on receiving and he’ll operate alongside Borzello in working with Contreras, Victor Caratini, and the organization’s other backstops. It’s worth noting that Driver was one of two catching coaches on Philadelphia’s staff, alongside Bob Stumpo.
Phillies Interested In Dellin Betances, Austin Romine
The Phillies are reportedly expressing interest in reliever Dellin Betances and catcher Austin Romine, per George A. King III of the New York Post.
Along with their reported interest in free agent shortstop Didi Gregorius, that makes three former Yankees the Phillies have been connected to since their hire of Joe Girardi as their next manager. All three ex-Yankees played multiple seasons under Girardi’s tutelage.
Betances certainly makes sense for a Phillies’ bullpen that was middle of the pack by ERA and a bottom-10 unit by measure of FIP. MLBTR’s Steve Adams provided a more succinct review in his Offseason Outlook by noting: they were “not a strength in 2019.” The group dealt with their share of injuries, of course, but that’s cold comfort for a team keen on competing in a difficult NL East. The bullpen currently has a number of high-ceiling arms, but very few established roles after injuries derailed the seasons of David Robertson, Seranthony Dominguez, and Tommy Hunter. Nominal closer Hector Neris arguably put together a decent 28-save campaign, but he was not without his hiccups either. Not for nothing, with Girardi taking over, usage patterns could shift entirely for this unit. Betances’ career 2.36 ERA and 14.6 K/9 would be a good addition on paper, but after missing essentially all of the 2019 season, Betances’ shutdown back-end talent comes packaged with further uncertainty.
Romine is the less likely of the two to end up in Philly, as the backup catcher is coming off a career-best .281/.310/.439 campaign and there’s no shortage of catching opportunities elsewhere. The backup spot in Philly doesn’t have as much playing time to offer as most – J.T. Realmuto is one of the few frontline catchers that demands a heavy majority of playing time. Philadelphia can probably get by with any number of veteran backups. They also have Deivy Grullon, 24 this season, waiting in the wings after a strong .283/.354/.496 seasons in Triple-A. Presumably, Romine would look for a position with a more obvious path to playing time.
NL East Notes: Harrison, Braves, Nationals
Josh Harrison received interest from multiple teams before signing his minor league deal with the Phillies yesterday, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that the Mets were the runners-up in the race for the veteran infielder. Given that Cesar Hernandez has been widely tabbed as a non-tender candidate, Harrison would seemingly have a smoother path to possible playing time at second base in Philadelphia, whereas Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil, and Jed Lowrie could all be ahead of Harrison on the depth chart in Queens. Despite the seeming glut of infield talent, it isn’t surprising that the Mets were on the lookout for more depth given that Cano battled both injuries and a downturn in performance in 2019, while Lowrie spent most of the year on the injured list.
More from around the NL East….
- While the Braves have been the winter’s busiest team thus far, their “offseason will rise/fall on [Josh] Donaldson’s decision,” Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution opines. Missing out on Donaldson would leave the team with a big hole in the lineup, and one that couldn’t be entirely filled by another third base addition like Mike Moustakas. As Bradley puts it, “Moustakas is a good player. Donaldson and [Anthony] Rendon are great players.” This take is perhaps rather dismissive of Moustakas’ abilities, as while Donaldson is the better player, there is some upside to inking a lesser third base option — for instance, Atlanta could sign Moustakas and a starting pitcher for the same price it would take to land just Donaldson. While it remains to be seen if Donaldson will be re-signed, Bradley notes that the Braves’ early flurry of signings has quieted some critics who felt the team wasn’t prepared to spend to reinforce its NL East-winning roster.
- The Braves‘ quick pace wasn’t by design, however, as GM Alex Anthopoulos tells The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (subscription required). “I’m not in a position to forecast what the rest of our offseason is going to look like because what we’ve done so far was really just circumstance. It just happened to come together the way it did,” Anthopoulos said, noting that the deals with Chris Martin, Darren O’Day, Nick Markakis, and Tyler Flowers were aided by the fact that all four players were already with Atlanta in 2019. As a result, Stark writes that fans might be disappointed if they think Atlanta’s moves or the White Sox moving quickly to sign Yasmani Grandal could signal a busier hot stove season for all 30 teams rather than the slow-moving winters of the last two years.
- Relief pitching looks to be a clear need for the Nationals this offseason…or is it? As Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post observes, the Nats’ early acquisitions of Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough last winter ended up as disasters, and the club ended up more or less entirely remaking their bullpen by season’s end. With this in mind, the Nationals might aim lower in picking up any new relievers this offseason because, since relief pitching performance is so hard to predict from year to year, the club might prefer to save such acquisitions for closer to the trade deadline. GM Mike Rizzo “prefers to assess relievers in-season, with fresh data and video to parse through,” Dougherty writes.