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Extension Candidate: Hunter Pence

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Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has authored eight extensions since taking charge in November of 2008, so it's only natural to assume he'll attempt to lock up summer acquisition Hunter Pence.  Let's discuss Pence's situation.

Pence

Pence, 28, had the best year of his career in 2011 with a .314/.370/.502 line in 668 plate appearances.  He's averaged 156 games over the last four seasons, with right field defense generally regarded as a positive.  Pence, a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council, has four years and 156 days of Major League service time.  That means he's already been arbitration eligible twice, with two more times to go.  Pence's agency won a hearing last February, scoring a $3.4MM raise to a $6.9MM salary.  The Astros had submitted a $5.15MM figure.  In unparalleled work done exclusively for MLBTR, Matt Swartz projected an even bigger raise this time, taking Pence to approximately $11.1MM for 2012.

In his prime and two seasons away from free agency, Pence may not necessarily be motivated to sign long-term at a big discount.  $23MM could work for his two arbitration years.  It'd be difficult to make a case that Pence deserves Ryan Braun/Matt Kemp money to buy out free agent years, which would be $19-21MM a season.  The $17-18MM range we saw with Jayson Werth and Matt Holliday could work, though those seven-year deals were reached by Scott Boras on the open market.  Pence might be able to get a six-year free agent deal if he remains consistent in 2012-13.  If the Phillies are willing to buy out six free agent years now at $16MM apiece, the total eight-year commitment could approach $120MM.  I think the floor for a Pence contract has to be five free agent seasons at $15MM each, bringing a seven-year deal to almost $100MM.

Pence turns 29 in April.  He one shot at a huge long-term deal in his career, and if he signs now, $100MM is a reasonable target.  The Phillies probably consider Cole Hamels a more pressing concern, but another big year from Pence will either drive the price higher or close the door on a long-term extension altogether.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Olney On Rays, Quentin, Polanco, Marlins, Darvish

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After ranking MLB's best rotations, bullpens, infields, outfields, and lineups in December, ESPN.com's Buster Olney opened up 2012 with his overall power rankings.  The Rays are ranked No. 1 thanks in large part to their outstanding rotation.  This year, Matt Moore joins the mix and Olney writes that the left-hander has the numbers and the ability of Stephen Strasburg without the same level of hype behind him.  Of course, the club still has some issues to address, such as the identity of their first baseman and designated hitter.  However, Olney feels that their pitching makes them the top club in baseball at present.  Here are some highlights from today's column..

  • It's possible that the Padres could negotiate a very team-friendly two- or three-year deal with the Carlos Quentin before arbitration.  However, it's hard to imagine the club investing heavily in the outfielder before gauging how much he can stay on the field and how his power translates to pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
  • The Phillies would still like to find an alternative to the oft-injured Placido Polanco.  In October, skipper Charlie Manuel said that he would be in favor of an upgrade at third base if possible.  The club dangled Polanco in early December when it seemed as if they might lose Jimmy Rollins to free agency and look to sign Aramis Ramirez to play third.
  • The Cubs are talking with a number of teams about Matt Garza, including the Marlins.  A lot of baseball scouts are not wild about the quality and depth of the prospects in Miami's farm system.
  • Yu Darvish is not yet signed with the Rangers, but rival executives don't believe he has much leverage and will eventually work out a deal.

Quick Hits: Madson, Phillies, Orioles, Hanrahan

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It was on this day in 2009 that the Mets signed Jason Bay to a four-year, $66MM contract.  The deal was almost immediately panned as one of the worst moves of the 2009-10 offseason and time has proven the critics right; Bay has hit just .251/.337/.386 in two injury-plagued years in New York.

Some news items as we head closer to 2012…

  • Ryan Madson is "the loser of the offseason," writes Fangraphs' Eric Seidman.  With no obvious teams still in need of a long-term closer, Seidman thinks Madson may have to settle for a one-year contract and try again for a multiyear deal next winter.  32.36% of MLBTR readers polled believe Madson will sign with the Angels, with just under 21% picking 'other' and 17.55% picking the Reds.  Though LAA and Cincinnati have cheaper closing options in the fold already, they're also looking to win now.  They'd both surely jump at Madson on a one-year deal and are probably Madson's only realistic suitors for a multiyear contract, though who knows what Scott Boras may yet pull out of his hat.  (The 'other' voters clearly know all about Boras' relationship with the Mystery Team.)
  • The Phillies aren't likely to bid on Yoenis Cespedes and Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer argues that Jorge Soler (the other intriguing Cuban outfield prospect on the market the winter) is also too unproven and expensive for the potential $20MM+ contract he could receive from a team.
  • Also from Brookover, he lists Jonny Gomes and Scott Hairston as potential targets for the Phillies as the team looks for a fifth outfielder.  If the Phils want to spend more to fill the spot, Brookover suggests Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick.
  • The Rangers' January 18 deadline for signing Yu Darvish is also the day the "logjam will break" for Prince Fielder, opines Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post.  If the Rangers can't sign Darvish, they "will be all over Fielder" to counter the Angels' signing of Albert Pujols.
  • There are "roughly six teams that have shown consistent interest" in Wei-Yin Chen, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.  The Orioles are one, the Pirates presumably still another, and the other four are yet unknown.  
  • Also from Connolly's piece, he predicts Edwin Jackson will find at least a four-year contract on the free agent market and notes that while "Jackson's upside intrigues the Orioles," team management has shied away from that long a commitment to free agent pitchers in the past.
  • Pirates closer (and MLBTR fan) Joel Hanrahan tells Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he doesn't expect to receive a long-term contract offer from the Bucs this winter.  Hanrahan is projected to earn around $4MM this winter in his second trip through the arbitration process.  He said the team hasn't made contact with him or his representatives yet about his 2012 contract, but this was also the case during his first taste of arbitration last year.

Extension Candidate: Cole Hamels

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Cole Hamels turns 28 today and by the time he turns 29 there’s a good chance he’ll have signed a new contract — either with the Phillies or as a free agent. The left-hander is one season away from hitting free agency for the first time in his career, so an extension with the Phillies is possible. Hamels has said he’d like to stay in Philadelphia and the Phillies have the need and resources to keep him in place.

Cole Hamels - Phillies

Hamels was born nine months before Matt Cain and drafted eight spots before the Giants right-hander. Both have distinguished themselves from the competition at the Major League level over the course of the past six seasons, but the question of which pitcher is more effective remains unanswered, as this comparison of their career stats shows. 

Cain, the harder thrower, has more innings to his name, more 200 inning seasons and a slight edge in career wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Hamels, who has the shinier win-loss record, induces more ground balls and has struck out more hitters per inning while allowing fewer walks.

When MLBTR’s Luke Adams examined a possible extension for Cain two days ago, he pointed out that the going rate for elite arms on long term deals falls in the $20MM per season range. Hamels hasn’t won a Cy Young Award like teammates Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, so a contract north of $20MM may not be realistic at this point, when only one team — the Phillies — can bid. However, the Phils had the biggest payroll in the National League this past season, so it’s not as though they’ll have to ask Hamels for a hometown discount.

The Giants and Phillies valued Cain and Hamels similarly when they drafted them eight spots apart from one another nearly a decade ago. Even though the two high schoolers have since become some of the game’s best pitchers, their value relative to one another remains similar. A five-year, $100MM contract could work for Hamels and the Phillies, just as it could work for Cain and the Giants. 

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz estimates a 2012 salary of $14MM for Hamels through arbitration. Four free agent seasons at $20MM per year and a $5MM buyout for an option year would bring the value of a possible deal to the $100MM range. It’s probably less than what Hamels, a John Boggs and Associates client, could obtain on the open market if he delivers another strong season in 2012. But it would provide the left-hander with security and the opportunity to hit free agency again at the age of 32 — the same age Lee was when he signed for $120MM last offseason.

If there's one pitcher who's more comparable to Hamels than Cain, it's Jered Weaver, the Angels right-hander who signed a team-friendly five-year $85MM extension during the 2011 season. Baseball-Reference says Hamels and Weaver are each other's top statistical comparables, which means the Phillies can argue Hamels should earn $17.5MM per free agent season, just as Weaver will. However, Hamels has bargaining power since he's closer to free agency than Weaver was last summer and is starting from a higher 2011 salary. Plus, Hamels is a year younger than Weaver and his resume includes 13 excellent postseason starts and a World Series MVP award.

Hamels’ injury history could give the Phillies pause. He struggled with injuries as a minor leaguer and early in his MLB career, spent time on the 15-day DL this August due to left shoulder inflammation and had a hernia repaired and loose bodies removed from his pitching elbow after the season. To his credit, he has averaged 31 starts and 206 innings since 2007, his first full season in the Phillies' rotation.

While the Phillies might balk at the possibility of a rotation that includes three $20MM pitchers, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. spent upwards of $65MM on Philadelphia’s rotation this past season, proving his willingness to commit to starters. The club won 102 games behind a historically good pitching staff in 2011, so it won’t be a surprise if ownership is willing to spend on future rotations.

Now that the Phillies have addressed most of their offseason needs, the front office can focus on the possibility of an extension for Hamels over the course of the next few months. Don’t be surprised if five years and $100MM works for both sides. If not, Hamels will enter the 2012 season with the chance to become the most coveted pitcher of the 2012-13 offseason.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Jorge Posada Drawing Interest

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3:34pm: The Rays' interest in Posada isn't strong, says Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. According to Topkin, Posada figures to be, at best, among the club's fallback options if other moves don't go as planned.

11:38am: Recently, we learned that Jorge Posada would like to continue playing in 2012 if he can find the right situation.  There appears to be interest in the veteran as the Rays, Orioles, and Phillies have inquired on Posada, the catcher's father told Javier Maymi of ESPNDeportes.com (Spanish link). 

Sources told Maymi that the Rays are interested in exploring the possibility of signing Posada as a reserve first baseman, designated hitter, and backup to Jose Molina.  The Rays already have Jose Lobaton and Robinson Chirinos to support Molina and even though both catchers suffered injuries over the winter, they are expected to be fine heading into Spring Training.

The Phillies would also be a curious fit for Posada with Jim Thome already providing a power bat against right-handed pitching.  As for the Orioles, they reportedly didn't have much interest in Posada a month ago as they were seeking someone who could catch every day if necessary.

Minor Moves: Velez, Hernandez, Luna, Montanez

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We'll keep track of today's minor league transactions here …

  • The Cardinals signed utility player Eugenio Velez, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Velez appeared in 34 games for the Dodgers this past season, but didn't collect a single hit. He did post an .834 OPS in 235 Triple-A plate appearances, while playing right field, left field, second base and third base.
  • The Pirates have agreed to terms with infielder Anderson Hernandez on a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, the team announced. Hernandez, 29, has played in 240 Major League games over six seaons with the Mets, Nationals, Indians and Astros. He last appeared in the bigs with Houston in 2010.
  • The Phillies announced they've signed infielder Hector Luna and outfielder Luis Montanez to minor league contracts with invitations to Spring Training. Luna has seen seen Major League action with the Cardinals, Indians, Blue Jays and Marlins, getting as many as 379 plate appearances with the Redbirds in 2006. Montanez appeared in 36 games with the Cubs in 2011.

Phillies Notes: Hamels, Galvis, Howard

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Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. expects to discuss a possible extension with left-hander Cole Hamels at some point this offseason, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Here are more notes on Hamels and the Phillies via Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Daily News:

  • "I have got no indication that Cole wants to go anywhere and I think Cole knows we want to keep him," Amaro said, according to Berman. Hamels, 27, posted a 2.79 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 52.3% ground ball rate in 215 innings this past season. The John Boggs & Associates client is set to hit free agency after the 2012 season (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $14MM salary for Hamels in his final season of arbitration eligibility).
  • Amaro re-signed Jimmy Rollins recently, but he still thinks 22-year-old shortstop prospect Freddy Galvis is a “very, very good quality prospect.”
  • Ryan Howard seems to be recovering well from his ruptured Achilles' tendon, Amaro said. The first baseman will likely go to Florida to continue his rehab at some point in the relatively near future.

Ed Wade Re-Joins Phillies

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TUESDAY: The Phillies have announced that Wade will be a special consultant in the club's baseball operations department.

MONDAY: Longtime MLB GM Ed Wade has returned to the Phillies in a scouting position, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports (on Twitter). Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle first reported that Wade would end up scouting for his former team (Twitter link).

The Astros dismissed Wade this fall after four years in Houston and a 56-106 showing in 2011. Wade became Philadelphia's GM in 1997 after spending years in the team's baseball operations department. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was Wade's assistant GM from 1999 until Wade's dismissal in 2005. The Phillies drafted Ryan Howard and Chase Utley while Wade was GM and selected Jimmy Rollins when he was the team's player personnel administrator.

NL East Notes: DeRosa, Hamels, Martinez, Prado

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Ed Wade is heading back to the NL East after four years in Houston. Here are more links from the division, starting with Wade’s longtime team…

  • Mark DeRosa says he's interested in playing for the Nationals, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson (Twitter links). However, other teams are interested and DeRosa is not close to making a decision.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says he's comfortable heading into Spring Training with the team he has, according to Paul Hagen of MLB.com. The Phillies have already made major free agent signings, added complementary players such as Laynce Nix, Jim Thome and Dontrelle Willis and signed players to minor league deals, as our Free Agent Tracker shows.
  • Those who know Cole Hamels doubt he would give the Phillies much of a discount on a potential extension, according to Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. The 27-year-old John Boggs & Associates client posted a 2.79 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 52.3% ground ball rate in 215 innings this past season. He's set to hit free agency after the 2012 season (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $14MM salary for Hamels in his final season of arbitration eligibility).
  • Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com shows that the Mets already have a projected payroll in the $90MM range. GM Sandy Alderson has suggested the team's payroll could be less than $100MM, so the Mets may not have much offseason shopping remaining.
  • The Mets are interested in catcher Luis Martinez, who was designated for assignment by the Padres on Sunday, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (on Twitter). The 26-year-old hit .203/.309/.305 in 68 plate appearances with the Padres this past season.
  • The Braves and Rockies have continued discussing a possible deal that would send Seth Smith to Atlanta for Martin Prado, according to MLB.com's Thomas Harding. The Braves appear to be seeing what they can get for Jair Jurrjens first, however. Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports examined possible suitors for Smith earlier today, including the Braves despite their preference for a right-handed hitter. 

Phillies Re-Sign Jimmy Rollins

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The Phillies signed Jimmy Rollins to a deal that will keep the shortstop in Philadelphia, though not for as the length he was said to be seeking.  The deal will pay Rollins $33MM over the next three years with an $11MM fourth year vesting option based on plate appearances. If the option doesn't vest, it can become a team option at $8MM or a player option at $5MM.

13295333Rollins, a lifelong Phillie, has seen his production tail off since his 30-30 MVP season in 2007, but he rebounded to bat .268/.338/.399 last season with 16 homers and 30 stolen bases. His defense has remained a positive even through his age-32 season, according to UZR.

Rollins, ranked seventh on MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agent list, entered the offseason in search of a five-year contract.  The Brewers were among the leading suitors for the 33-year-old's services but officially pulled themselves out of the sweepstakes when they gave a three-year, $36MM deal to third baseman Aramis Ramirez.  Even without Ramirez, Milwaukee's signing of Alex Gonzalez was widely interpreted as a signal that they would not pursue J-Roll any further.

The Cardinals were also candidates to land Rollins after Albert Pujols signed with the Angels, but they had little interest in giving Rollins the five-year pact that he was asking for.  Instead, St. Louis decided to ink Rafael Furcal to a two-year deal worth roughly $14MM.  Ultimately, the market pushed the shortstop and the Phillies back together.  At the start of this winter, seven of our eight writers predicted a Phillies for the Icon Sports Group client.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter) first reported that the Phillies and Rollins agreed to a three-year deal with a vesting fourth year option.  Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter) added that the dela would be worth $33MM over three years while Yahoo's Tim Brown (Twitter link) reported that the fourth year option would be worth $11MM.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted that the fourth year option would be easily attainable.

Photo courtesy of Chris Williams/Icon SMI.

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