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Central Notes: Liriano, Carpenter, Berry, Kazmir

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From earlier today in the two Central divisions, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer sat down for a podcast with ESPN's Buster Olney, the Brewers are looking to the future and Jake Peavy is willing to be traded anywhere if the White Sox see fit to move him.  Here are some other items from both the AL and NL Central…

  • Francisco Liriano's 2014 option with the Pirates will vest for $6MM if the southpaw can avoid spending 120 days on the disabled list this season, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports.  Liriano signed a complicated deal with the Bucs in February that only guaranteed him $1MM in 2013 but could've been worth as much as $12.75MM if Liriano stayed healthy.  His stint on the DL this season already cost him around $1.625MM this season and an extra $2MM for 2014.
  • Cardinals right-hander Chris Carpenter threw to live batters on Monday, The Associated Press reports, and may repeat the process if his shoulder doesn't become numb.  Carpenter was thought to be out for all of 2013 and was pondering retirement due to ongoing shoulder injuries, but the former Cy Young Award winner has taken several positive steps in his comeback.
  • The Twins had some interest in Quintin Berry before the Royals claimed the outfielder off waivers earlier today, 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson tweets.
  • Scott Kazmir credits his development of secondary pitches and better pitching strategies for his return to the Major Leagues, Howard Megdal of Sports On Earth writes.  Kazmir has a 5.13 ERA in eight starts with the Indians this season but his secondary numbers are good enough that MLBTR's Steve Adams believes he could earn a decent free agent contract this winter.
  • "Lots of changes figure to occur" with the Royals if the team can't get on track, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star writes as part of a reader mailbag.  If they make a big move like trading Ervin Santana, Dutton figures K.C. would look to acquire a slugging corner outfielder or a second baseman in return.
  • Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago covers several White Sox and Cubs topics and rumors in his live chat about Windy City baseball.  

Minor Moves: Irwin, Chang, Teahen, Jacobs

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Today's minor moves…

  • The Pirates placed right-hander Phil Irwin on the 60-day disabled list, the club announced.  Irwin made his Major League debut this season, allowing four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in a start on April 14.  Irwin, a 21st-round draft pick in 2009, has a 2.97 ERA and 5.03 K/BB rate over 423 2/3 minor league innings.
  • The Indians signed Taiwanese shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang for $500K, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America.  The Tribe has been one of the more active teams in Taiwan in recent years, notes Badler.  Chang doesn't have a plus tool currently, hears Badler, and projects as a doubles hitter who may have to move off shortstop.
  • The Diamondbacks outrighted righty Eric Smith off the 40-man roster, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  The 24-year-old former second-round draft pick has a 7.29 ERA in 21 Double-A innings.
  • The Royals opened a 40-man roster spot for Salvador Perez, who returned from bereavement, by transferring lefty Danny Duffy to the 60-day DL, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.
  • Mark Teahen was released from the Rangers' Triple-A club yesterday, according to the Pacific Coast League transactions page.  He'd been signed to a minor league deal on May 23rd, after asking for and being granted his release from the D'Backs a few days prior.  Teahen, 31, has a .198/.293/.226 line in Triple-A this year across 123 plate appearances.  He was a key figure in the June 2004 trade that sent Carlos Beltran to the Astros from the Royals.
  • Speaking of the D'Backs' Triple-A affiliate, the Reno Aces signed first baseman Mike Jacobs, according to that same transactions page.  Jacobs, 32, last appeared in the Majors with Arizona briefly last year.  He signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in January but was released in March and subsequently played in the Mexican League this year.  Jacobs, a 38th round draft pick of the Mets in 1999, joined the Marlins in the November 2005 Carlos Delgado trade.  In October 2008, the Royals acquired Jacobs from the Marlins for reliever Leo Nunez, who is now known as Juan Carlos Oviedo.
  • Six players currently reside in DFA limbo: Mark Lowe of the Angels, Tyler Greene of the White Sox, Vinnie Catricala of the Mariners, Tyler Robertson of the Twins, and Zach Duke and Henry Rodriguez of the Nationals.

Rosenthal On Hughes, Gallardo, Kershaw, Pirates

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Here’s a look at some highlights from the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • At the age of 27, Phil Hughes will be the youngest pitcher on the open market by far.  The Yankees hurler figures to be more in demand that one might think thanks to his high strikeout rate, low walk rate, postseason experience, and his ability to survive – and sometimes thrive – in New York.  Hughes’ biggest flaw is giving up a lot of home runs, but a more forgiving ballpark could help correct that.  Rosenthal suggests that he would do well in the pitcher-friendly parks of the Mets, Padres, Mariners, and Tigers.
  • The trade market for starting pitchers doesn’t look very attractive at this point, but Yovani Gallardo is one player to keep an eye on.  Gallardo hasn’t done especially well this season for the Brewers and his fastball velocity is trending downward, but he might be better than any other starter on the block.  He’s also relatively affordable as he makes $7.75MM this season and $11.25MM next season with a $13MM option for 2015. 
  • The Dodgers might not be in as strong of a position for Robinson Cano as they initially appeared.  Clayton Kershaw is going to go for ~$200MM and the team might not be able to take another contract in that range.  As Josh Kosman and Mark DeCambre of the New York Post reported earlier this week, the club will have to commit a greater percentage of their deal to revenue sharing than the originally thought.  That could cost them more than $1B over 25 years and that could affect their ability to maintain skyhigh payrolls.
  • Much has been made of the workloads of the Pirates’ top relievers, triggering speculation that they’ll have to trade for relief help at the deadline.  That could happen, but team officials note that Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon both have been quite efficient while Justin Wilson has gone back-to-back just twice in his multi-inning role this season.  The club also has a number of intriguing options waiting in the wings in Triple-A, most notably Ryan Reid and Jared Hughes.

2014 Vesting Options Update

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With two months of baseball in the books, here's a look at the players who have vesting options for the 2014 season..

  • Kurt Suzuki, Nationals: $9.25MM option vests with 113 starts in 2013.  Suzuki was slated to split time behind the plate with Wilson Ramos this season, but Ramos' hamstring has forced the club to give the veteran catcher 39 starts thus far (counting tonight's game).  The most recent update on Ramos, courtesy of the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, says that he'll be sidelined until around July 1st.  If Ramos heals up and takes starts away from Suzuki, it will be a club option worth $8.5MM with a modest $650K buyout.
  • Jamey Carroll, Twins: $2MM option vests with 401 plate appearances. Carroll has 105 PAs in 27 games this season.  The veteran has had more than his needed total in each of the last three seasons with 500+ plate appearances in each of the last two years.
  • Wilson Betemit, Orioles: $3.2MM option vests with 324 plate appearances (combined 700 between 2012 and 2013). Betemit underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on March 26th and a late May update (from Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com) indicates that he still hasn't been cleared for baseball activities.  
  • Lance Berkman, Rangers: $13MM option vests with 550 plate appearances. So far, Berkman has 199 plate appearances to his credit and is on pace to lock in his 2014 option with ease.  In 2011, his last full season, the slugger racked up 587 PAs.
  • Roy Halladay, Phillies: $20MM option vests with 259 innings pitched (combined 415 innings pitched between '12 and '13).  This was a longshot to begin with, but shoulder surgery earlier this month makes this one impossible.
  • Brett Myers, Indians: $8MM option vests with 200 innings pitched in 2013 and a passed physical after the season.  After logging 21 and 1/3 innings in 2013, Myers was sidelined with tendinitis and a mild ligament sprain in his right elbow and has yet to return.  When he does come back, it's possible that the Tribe will move him to the bullpen.
  • Barry Zito, Giants: $18MM option vests with 200 innings pitched. Zito has racked up 62 and 2/3 innings through eleven starts this season.  It's far from a lock, but as it stands the veteran still has a chance at securing his 2014 salary.  His numbers are strong as he has a 3.88 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
  • Johan Santana, Mets: His $25MM option could have vested with 215 innings pitched or winning the 2013 Cy Young Award, but he won't have a chance at that thanks to a season-ending tear in his pitching shoulder.

It's also worth noting that Pirates pitcher Francisco Liriano has a $8MM club option for 2014, but it can vest at any of three levels – $5MM, $6MM, or $8MM – based on the number of days he is not on the DL this year with a recurrence of his right arm injury.  It's not known how many days the hurler must steer clear of right arm trouble in order to trigger each level of his option, however.  The left-hander made his season debut on May 11th.

Alvarez, Pirates Open To Extension

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Both Pedro Alvarez (via agent Scott Boras) and the Pirates have expressed interest in exploring an extension for the 26-year-old third baseman, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The team expects Alvarez to become arbitration eligible after this season, which would void a $700k team option for 2014 but leave him under team control through the 2016 season.

Boras said that the Alvarez camp was "open to the idea" of discussing a long-term deal over the coming offseason. Of course, he gave no indication that such a contract would come at a discount. Boras noted that Alvarez's "combination of 20 to 30 [home run] power and quality defense at third base" was a valuable commodity, and predicted that "his best years are yet to come." Alvarez smacked 30 home runs last year for the Pirates in his first full season as a regular, and posted a .244/.317/.467 slash line. He has continued to hit the long ball this year, though he has struggled to get on base (.200/.257/.406). As the second overall pick in the 2008 draft, Alvarez already netted one substantial payday when he signed a four-year, $6.355MM deal (and had his 2013 option exercised at $700k). 

From the perspective of the Pirates, team president Frank Coonelly also expressed a willingness to talk, saying: "Open minds often lead to common ground and, ultimately, to agreement. We also have an open mind on these issues and will continue to evaluate seriously the merits of a long-term agreement with Pedro, just like we do with all of our young players." He did note that the team's philosophy required that free agent years be included in any such deal: "We are proponents of multiyear deals for our core players. For us, buying out free-agent years is very important. To do otherwise doesn't make much sense."  

While there is much for Alvarez to prove before he earns an extension, Pittsburgh's expressed interest makes it worth a look ahead to see what Alvarez could potentially garner if he has a strong end to his 2013 season. MLBTR's Extension Tracker reveals three recent extensions for power-hitting, young third-basemen on the cusp of arbitration eligibility. Before the 2012 season, the Giants agreed to a deal with then-25-year-old third baseman Pablo Sandoval that bought out his three arbitration-eligible seasons but did not include any free agent years. The three-year deal was worth a total of $17.15MM plus incentives. Likewise, Mark Reynolds signed a three-year, $14.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks that bought out his first two arbitration years (along with one pre-arb season) and included a $11MM option on his final year of arbitration eligibility. (The Orioles did not exercise that option and declined to afford Reynolds arbitration by not tendering him a contract, making him a free agent.) The Nationals locked up Ryan Zimmerman for five years and $45MM just weeks into the 2009 season, after previously agreeing to avoid arbitration in his first season of eligibility. Effectively, the deal covered three arbitration years and two free agent seasons.  

Certainly, Alvarez has not demonstrated the level of performance of Sandoval, Reynolds, and Zimmerman at the time their deals were signed. (Sandoval was coming off of a .315/.357/.552 slash with 23 home runs. Reynolds had just posted a .260/.349/.543 line with 44 homers and 24 steals. Zimmerman was just 24 and had already put up three seasons of stellar defense and strong power/on-base numbers, though he was coming off of an injury-shortened 2008.) And the Sandoval and Reynolds models seem to be non-starters if the Pirates insist on buying free agent years. Nevertheless, they could provide something of a guide for the value of Alvarez's arbitration seasons, as his big power totals and consistent playing time figure to play well in that setting.

While Zimmerman's deal is somewhat outdated at this point, it would presumably set an upper bound on what Alvarez could look for in a five-year pact. Looking outside of third baggers, the four-year, $30MM deal that the Royals gave to Billy Butler before the 2011 season could be a target for Alvarez. Kansas City also picked up a $12.5MM team option for another year. That contract covered three arbitration seasons and one year of free agency. While Butler was undoubtedly a more accomplished hitter, his DH status limited his value. (For reference, Butler was worth 1.9 fWAR in 2009 and 2.6 fWAR in 2010. Manning third, Alvarez logged 2.3 fWAR last year.)

Of course, this set of comparable players is relatively heady territory for a player with Alvarez's somewhat spotty track record. His slow start at the plate this year has been accompanied by eight errors and a .938 fielding percentage, though advanced fielding metrics peg him as above average thus far. And the Pirates have handed out only one deal to a player (Andrew McCutchen) with between two and five years of service time since their 2009 deal with Nate McLouth.

Minor Moves: Ortiz, Robinson, Pirates, Green, Wimberly

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Here are your minor moves from around the league for Friday…

  • The Blue Jays have announced that Ramon Ortiz and Clint Robinson cleared waivers and were outrighted off the 40-man roster, per Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson Smith (on Twitter). Ortiz was outrighted to Triple-A Buffalo, while Robinson was outrighted to Double-A New Hampshire. Both were designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets that the Pirates have acquired Triple-A right-hander Graham Godfrey from the Red Sox in exchange for cash considerations. The 28-year-old Godfrey has amassed 46 Major League innings — all with the Athletics – and posted a 5.09 ERA with 4.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
  • The Pirates have acquired Triple-A lefty Atahualpa Severino from the Royals in exchange for cash considerations, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Severino, 28, has a 3.40 ERA, 7.9 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 in 156 1/3 career innings at Triple-A. He received a brief taste of the Major Leagues with the Nationals back in 2011, totaling 4 2/3 innings of relief.
  • The Marlins have outrighted infielder Nick Green to Triple-A New Orleans, according to the PCL's Transactions page, meaning that he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment Wednesday.
  • The Braves released minor league outfielder Corey Wimberly, according to the International League Transaction log. The 29-year-old hit .234/.268/.351 in 25 games (83 plate appearances) for Triple-A Gwinnett this season.
  • The Indians announced (via Twitter) that they have signed right-hander Chris Jakubauskas and assigned him to Triple-A Columbus. The 34-year-old has a 5.58 ERA in 166 big league innings and last saw the Majors with the Orioles in 2011. Jakubauskas spent 2012 in the D-backs and Blue Jays organizations, and he appeared in eight Triple-A games for the Brewers this season. He has a 3.75 ERA in 175 career innings at Triple-A.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Feldman, Mujica, Francisco

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The Pirates' record sits at 33-20, and while Fangraphs' Dave Cameron doesn't think the Bucs will keep playing .623 ball for the rest of the season, the team's expected regression shouldn't be enough to keep them from playoff contention, or at the very least their first winning record since 1992.  Of course, last year's Pirates also looked good before completely falling apart after the All-Star break, so Pittsburgh fans shouldn't count their chickens until their club actually posts that 82nd victory. 

Here's the latest from the NL Central…

  • Cubs right-hander Scott Feldman could be a major trade chip this summer, ESPN Chicago's Bruce Levine writes.  An AL scout tells Levine that Feldman is "one of those pitchers that you don't get that excited about unless you watch him over a period of starts.  He has really commanded his pitches this season and you see the confidence and consistent outings from him."  Feldman signed a one-year, $6MM contract with Chicago last winter and has rebuilt his value by posting a 2.82 ERA, 7.57 K/9, 2.68 K/BB and 50.6% ground ball rate through 10 starts.  (The advanced metrics indicate a bit of luck, as Feldman also has a 3.92 FIP, 3.78 xFIP and a .254 BABIP.)  The Cubs "may be reluctant" to move Feldman, Levine notes, though they would likely make a trade in exchange for a quality prospect.
  • The Cardinals' trade for Edward Mujica last July has turned into a steal, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  The Cards added Mujica as bullpen depth last year and he has surprisingly blossomed into an elite closer after the club's other end-game options all had injury or performance issues.  Zack Cox, a 2010 first-round draft pick, was sent to the Marlins for Mujica and is hitting .298/.398/.381 at Double-A Jacksonville.  MLBTR's Steve Adams recently looked at how Mujica's performance has greatly enhanced his free agent stock for the coming offseason.
  • John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link) doesn't see the Reds making a play for Juan Francisco now that the third baseman has been designated for assignment by the Braves.  Francisco was originally signed by the Reds and played three seasons in Cincinnati before being dealt to Atlanta for J.J. Hoover in April 2012.  The left-handed hitting Francisco makes sense on paper as a complement to Todd Frazier, though I'd suspect the Reds would prefer to keep Frazier playing every day.

Prospect Rumor Roundup: Conversion Projects

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Hitters converting to pitchers, and vice versa, is nothing new in Major League Baseball. One of baseball's all-time best hitters — Babe Ruth — began his career as a successful pitcher before becoming a full-time hitter and eventually landing in the Hall of Fame mainly for his exploits at the plate. That said, Ruth – who played between 1914 and 1935 – is clearly an anomaly when it comes to his performance given how tough it is to succeed at one role, let alone two.

The conversion from hitter to pitcher is generally considered to be a little easier due to the smaller learning curve and fewer skills that need to be developed. Some of the recent examples of hitters-turned-pitchers include Sean Doolittle of the Athletics, Jason Motte of the Cardinals, and Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers.

There are a number of interesting conversion stories developing throughout the minor leagues as prospects desperately cling to their dreams of playing in The Show by redefining their roles.

Stetson Allie, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates

As alluded to above, switching from hitting to pitching is a very difficult thing to do and many nameless minor leaguers have washed out attempting to make the bold move. Some of the more recent successes include the likes of Rick Ankiel, Adam Loewen and Brian Bogusevic but that group of players has experienced moderate success at the plate at best. Pirates prospect Stetson Allie is looking to become more than just a role player, Quad-A slugger, or curious oddity.

Originally signed for $2.25MM due to his big-time fastball, the Ohio native made just 17 appearances on the mound before it became apparent his best hope for a big league career would come while standing in the batter's box. As a pitcher, Allie posted a 7.76 ERA while walking 37 batters in 26 2/3 innings of work.

The decision to turn Allie into a first baseman was not a desperate grasp at straws to try and recoup a hefty investment. Baseball America is one of the best in the business when it comes to covering the annual amateur draft, and Allie's pre-draft scouting report touched on the young player's prep hitting abilities (subscription required). "[Allie] had expressed a desire to hit, and he does have some of the best raw power in the draft… With his size, power and arm strength, he could be an early-round pick as a third baseman, but he now accepts that his future is on the mound."

He began his journey as a hitter in 2012 and had a modest first season as a hitter in the Gulf Coast League. Moved up to A-ball in 2013, the 22-year-old Allie got off to a hot start in his first two months of the season (.342 batting average and 13 home runs) although there are some red flags. He's age-appropriate for his league and there would be more enthusiasm for his numbers if he were a year or two younger. Additionally, a strikeout rate of 28 percent in Low-A ball is worrisome, although Allie will likely earn a mulligan due to his lack of experience. Improvements in his contact rate will have to be made if he hopes to succeed against better pitching and improved breaking balls at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. When asked about the Pittsburgh prospect's chances of reaching the Majors, ESPN's prospect expert Keith Law referred to him as a "longshot" on Twitter.

Allie is not the only prospect in the Pirates system attempting to reinvent himself. Jared Lakind, 21, was originally given a $400K contract to forgo a two-way career at the University of Arkansas because of his intriguing raw power. He never tapped into it in pro ball with just five home runs in three seasons. He also hit just .148 and .169 over the past two seasons.

Kyler Burke, LHP, Chicago Cubs

Toiling away in the near obscurity of the Florida State League (High-A) — where crowds are announced in the hundreds rather than the 10s of thousands — is another conversion project in Kyler Burke of the Cubs. The Padres originally selected the prospect 35th overall during the 2006 amateur draft out of a Tennessee high school. He spent more than five years as a hitter in the low minors and was traded to the Cubs in 2007 as part of a package for former big league catcher Michael Barrett. Burke's best season as a hitter came in 2009 at the A-ball level when he posted a .911 OPS.

Contact issues plagued the young prospect throughout his career and he made the decision to give pitching a try after he struck out 131 times in 135 High-A ball games in 2010. Still just 25, he's moved methodically through the system as a pitcher and he's currently in the Daytona Cubs' starting rotation. Burke has made two starts so far after opening the year rehabbing an injury in extended spring training and he's allowed five hits in 10 innings of work and features a 0.90 ERA.

The prospect recently told writer Jake Seiner of MiLB.com he was willing to do anything asked of him to realize his dream of playing in the big leagues. "I just want to get to the big leagues," he said. "I love starting and I love the routine of going out every fifth day and getting my work in between. If it works out as a reliever, that's fine, too. It really doesn't matter to me."

The Cubs will face a difficult decision with Burke this fall. If he's not added to the 40-man roster, he'll not only be available in the annual Rule 5 draft, but he'll also be a minor league free agent, allowing him an opportunity to search out the clearest path to a Major League opening.

Justin Jackson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Like Burke, Justin Jackson was a highly-regarded prep hitting prospect out of North Carolina. The Toronto Blue Jays selected the former shortstop 45th overall during the 2007 amateur draft and handed him a $675K bonus. He spent six seasons as a hitter but never hit more than .249 in a season and played just 94 games above the A-ball level. Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com sat down with Jackson, 24, and spoke to him about the decision to switch roles — which was borne out of a conversation between his agent and the Jays front office.

He opened 2013 in extended spring training in an effort to give him as much time as possible to polish his repertoire before making his pro debut as a pitcher. That moment finally came on May 4th when he worked 2 2/3 innings out of the bullpen for the Lansing Lugnuts of the Midwest League (A-ball). Sam Dykstra of MiLB.com spoke with Jackson shortly after his first appearance. Since then, Jackson has accumulated 11 1/3 innings in seven appearances and features a 1.59 ERA with eight strikeouts.

His control continues to be a work in progress with six walks issued but he flashes an intriguing repertoire that includes a low-90s fastball, slider and changeup. If he's not added to the Jays' 40-man roster after the conclusion of the 2013 season, Jackson will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in November and he'll also become a minor league free agent after six full seasons in the minors.

Jackson's former Lansing teammate Markus Brisker is also switching from hitter to pitcher, although he's still working out in extended spring training. The 22-year-old outfielder was originally a sixth round draft pick out of a Florida high school back in 2008. After hitting .306 in his debut, the athletic and strong-armed outfielder managed to hit above .200 just once in parts of four seasons in A-ball.

Prospect Tidbits: Like Allie, Micah Owings is trying to reinvent himself as a hitter after reaching the Majors as a pitcher and making 138 appearances (68 starts), mostly with the Diamondbacks. The born-again rookie currently has a respectable .770 OPS at the Triple-A level for the Nationals. He's slugged 15 extra base hits in 40 games but his 32 percent strikeout rate is a concern. Owings, 30, owns a career .813 OPS with nine homers in 205 big league at-bats — despite a strikeout rate of 33 percent…..Royals outfield prospect Brett Eibner, 24, was selected in the second round of the 2010 amateur draft after a strong career at the University of Arkansas as a two-way player. After parts of three years, though, he has yet to hit higher than .213 in any one season and struck out 165 times in 120 games last year in High-A ball. During the 2010 pre-draft scouting report on Eibner, Baseball America stated (subscription required): "Eibner is the best two-way prospect in the 2010 draft. Teams are evenly split about whether he has more potential as a pitcher or an outfielder… Eibner's preference is to hit, but it remains to be seen if he'll get his wish." The publication noted that his fastball velocity ranged anywhere from 88-97 mph. If he continues to struggle with the bat, the outfielder could take to the mound in the near future.

Cardinals Notes: Pujols, Wacha, Taveras

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The Cardinals' selection of Albert Pujols (13th round, 1999) is the best draft pick in MLB history, says Dan Szymborski of ESPN (Insider-only). Szymborski uses a non-linear model to assess the WAR value of each draft pick, then compares actual picks to their expected value over nine years to create a list of the top 100 picks in draft history. Szymborski notes that the fact that Pujols was so good from the very beginning of his career made him particularly valuable as a draft pick, since the Cards didn't have to wait for a few years after his debut for him to become a superstar. Here are more notes on the Redbirds.

How Valuable Are Competitive Balance Draft Picks?

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This year’s draft will be the first to feature competitive balance draft picks. These picks, which go to small-market and low-revenue teams, were awarded in a lottery last year. Some will take place after the first round, others after the second round. Unlike with regular draft picks, it’s possible for teams to trade competitive balance picks, which means that each team surely has decided how much these picks are worth.USATSI_7210839

This is the full draft order. The competitive balance picks are as follows:

34. Royals
35. Marlins (from Pirates)
36. Diamondbacks
37. Orioles
38. Reds
39. Tigers (from Marlins)

69. Padres
70. Rockies
71. A’s
72. Brewers
73. Marlins (from Tigers)

A 2009 study by Baseball Analysts’ Sky Andrecheck suggested that the average value of the No. 30 overall pick was 3.6 WAR — basically, the equivalent of about two decent seasons for a role player. The value of the competititve balance picks from No. 34 to No. 39, then, would be slightly less. Placing a numerical value on these draft picks in the current draft environment is tricky, however, because so much about the draft has changed in the past two years. Unlike in years past, teams are reined in by bonus pool allotments, so they aren’t picking players for the same reasons they used to.

Teams can trade competitive balance picks, and two trades have already occurred, both of them involving the Marlins. The Pirates traded (what turned out to be) their No. 35 pick to Miami, along with outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, for first baseman Gaby Sanchez and minor-league pitcher Kyle Kaminska. The Marlins also traded their own competitive balance pick to the Tigers in the Anibal Sanchez deal, receiving the Tigers’ pick in return.

The Gaby Sanchez deal is a lot simpler, so let’s work from there. Hernandez and Kaminska weren’t key parts of the trade, so the deal boils down to Gaby Sanchez for the No. 35 overall pick. Pirates GM Neal Huntington recently explained the rationale behind the deal in an interview with David Todd on 970 ESPN in Pittsburgh (beginning at around 12:30).

“You see a David Wright, and you recognize, man, there’s a comp pick and there’s the risk, is we may have given up David Wright,” Huntington says. (Obviously, Wright wasn’t a competitive balance pick, but he was the No. 38 overall pick in the draft in 2001.)

“But … you recognize there’s about a 15% chance of getting an everyday big-leaguer in the 30-to-40 pick range,” says Huntington. “We felt like it was worth that 15% chance that we were going to get an everyday big-leaguer.

“You’ve also got a smaller chance to get an impact guy like David Wright, but you’ve got about a 60% miss rate at those picks, and in our minds, it’s going to be even [higher] now that the draft is much more scripted than it’s ever been.”

A look at recent draft history reveals Huntington’s analysis to be essentially correct. Let’s look at the 30-40 pick range from the 2001 through 2005 drafts. (Although Huntington mentioned the “30-to-40 pick range,” the No. 30 pick will typically be a traditional first-round pick, not a competitive-balance pick.)

2001: Noah Lowry (30), Jeff Mathis (33), Bronson Sardinha (34), J.D. Martin (35), John Rheinecker (37), David Wright (38)

2002: Dan Meyer (34), Jeremy Brown (35), Mark Teahen (39)

2003: Mitch Maier (30), Matt Murton (32), Omar Quintanilla (33), Luis Atilano (35), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (36), Adam Jones (37), James Houser (38), Tony Gwynn, Jr. (39), Jay Sborz (40)

2004: Eric Hurley (30), J.P. Howell (31), Zach Jackson (32), Matt Fox (35), Danny Putnam (36), Gio Gonzalez (38), Huston Street (40)

2005: Tyler Greene (30), Ryan Tucker (34), Cesar Ramos (35), Travis Buck (36), Trevor Bell (37)

This distribution of outcomes is fairly telling — in 55 picks, there’s one superstar (Wright), two very good players (Jones and Gonzalez), a good closer (Street), a decent regular (Saltalamacchia) and a smattering of role players. This was a better five-year period for picks 31 through 40 than the five-year periods before or after it, and still the chances of nabbing a meaningful player with one of those picks was, it appears, relatively small. For competitive balance picks after the second round, the chances of grabbing a good player are even smaller. (Well, at least theoretically. From 2001 through 2005, the list of quality players chosen between No. 66 and No. 75 includes Dan Haren, Kurt Suzuki, Jason Vargas, Wade Davis and Chase Headley. That’s not bad.)

Gaby Sanchez, who has produced 0.4 WAR for the Pirates this season, is more valuable than most players from the 31 through 40 range who made the majors, and obviously also more valuable than the ones who didn’t make the majors. He’s also cheap, making $1.75MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Notably, though, the Pirates quickly slotted him into the short end of a platoon role, meaning that they recognized him as a part-time player.

Is it worth it to give up a shot at the next David Wright for a part-time player? That depends on how great the shot is, and the position of the franchise making the trade. The Marlins were selling off their disappointing 2012 team at the time of the Sanchez deal, so it made sense for them to take a shot in the dark at finding the next David Wright. But the Pirates were trying to position themselves as a contender, so Sanchez had more value for them than a shot in the dark did.

Another consideration is the bonus pool allotment for competitive balance picks. Last year’s pool value for the No. 35 pick was $1.4MM; this year, that figure will be slightly higher. So the Marlins will have a little over $1.4MM extra to distribute to all its draft picks, assuming they sign whoever they take at No. 35, while the Pirates will forfeit the ability to spend that money. The Astros, for example, used a large bonus pool to their advantage in the later rounds last year, signing players like Lance McCullers Jr. for well over the bonus recommendation.

In the next few years, teams’ ability to trade competitive balance selections should allow us to begin to see how teams value draft picks. The competitive balance picks are late enough in the draft that they’re fairly low-percentage plays. They’re still valuable, however, so we should see rebuilding small-market and low-revenue teams try to acquire them — either one-for-one (or more or less one-for-one) for role players like Gaby Sanchez, or as part of packages in deals involving more premium talents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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