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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates will look to add offense and acquire pitching depth in the hopes of ending their streak of 20 consecutive losing seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

Free Agents

There’s no easy fix for the Pirates, who enter the offseason with many needs and limited resources. Yet there’s some hope, even after consecutive late-season collapses, that 2013 will be the year the Pirates end their streak of 20 straight losing seasons. For the streak to end, GM Neal Huntington will have to pursue upgrades on the pitching staff and at multiple positions around the diamond.

Joel Hanrahan - Pirates (PW)

Pirates president Frank Coonelly has publicly expressed support for his team's front office executives. But the question persists: how long can upper management support the unconventional, military style player development methods which led to at least one injured prospect? Rival executives have said they consider these methods unacceptable and excessively risky.

The Pirates, who spent $52MM on payroll in 2012, have committed $28MM to next year's team with another $22MM or so projected to go to arbitration eligible players. Unless they unexpectedly increase payroll they aren't going to be signing elite free agents this coming winter.

The Pirates have lots of questions in their starting rotation in the short and long-term. A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are in place atop the rotation for 2013, and James McDonald will be a welcome addition if he can replicate the form he showed in the first half of this past season. Beyond that there’s Charlie Morton, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, non-tender candidate Jeff Karstens, and a number of rookies. The Pirates have some intriguing young rotation candidates such as former first overall selection Gerrit Cole, but that’s not necessarily enough to keep them in games for the duration of a six-month season.

Kevin Correia's not expected to re-sign in Pittsburgh after losing his rotation spot late in the regular season. The Pirates could explore free agency for potential bargains such as Ervin Santana, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Francisco Liriano, Chris Young and Kevin Millwood. Perhaps they can follow the template that landed them Burnett and Rodriguez and acquire Chris Capuano or Aaron Harang from the Dodgers with Los Angeles taking on some salary. Huntington has had success with this type of deal in the past and might look to replicate it this winter, with his club still in need of pitching.

The Pirates could obtain some starting pitching by trading their closer, Joel Hanrahan (pictured). The right-hander’s salary projects to jump to the $7MM range, so it’s time for Huntington to complete a trade. It doesn’t make sense for the Pirates to allocate 15% of their budget to a reliever who pitches 4% of their innings. The Dodgers, Angels and Tigers are among the large market teams that could be seeking shutdown relievers this winter. Perhaps Huntington can move Hanrahan to one of those clubs while getting useful, controllable pieces in return.

A trade would prompt the Pirates to pursue relief help, especially since free agent right-hander Jason Grilli has a case for a multiyear deal, and could be priced out of Pittsburgh. Huntington has had past success finding effective relievers without overpaying for them. Grilli and Chris Resop, for example, were acquired for next to nothing. Replicating this success won’t be easy, but it’s one way for the Pirates to avoid spending $5MM per season on relievers. Whether it’s a Rule 5 selection, a late-winter bargain or a waiver claim, the Pirates must seek affordable bullpen help.

The Pirates also have significant needs on offense after ranking 24th in runs scored among MLB's 30 teams. They’re expected to seek a starting catcher at a time that a number of starting backstops are eligible for free agency. Mike Napoli's power would be a welcome addition to the Pirates' offense, so it makes sense to check in and see if a deal could work for both sides. However, top options such as Napoli and Russell Martin might not be affordable for the Pirates.

If that's the case they could simply seek a part-time backup for Michael McKenry, the 27-year-old who posted a .233/.320/.442 batting line in 275 plate appearances this past season. There’s “zero chance” the Pirates will exercise Rod Barajas’ option at $3.5MM according to Rob Biertempfel. Yet Barajas has said he'd be interested in re-signing at a lower figure, so that's a possibility (by the way, the team's other option, a $700K club option for Pedro Alvarez, will definitely be exercised).

Catcher was just one of the positions at which the Pirates struggled offensively in 2012. The team’s first basemen (24th in OPS, .693), shortstops (26th in OPS, .604) and left fielders (28th in OPS, .635) were among the least productive in MLB at their respective positions. 

Garrett Jones figures to start at first base again after hitting 27 home runs and posting a .274/.317/.516 batting line in 2012. Jones struggles against left-handers, which means Gaby Sanchez, a noted lefty masher, could add value in a complementary role. For all of his offensive struggles, Clint Barmes remains a highly-regarded defender. The Pirates should explore trades for shortstops in case there’s a deal to be had, but the trade value of shortstops who add value on offense and defense figures to be extremely high, especially when there’s not a strong class of free agents.

The Pirates have an assortment of corner outfield options in Travis Snider, Alex Presley, Jose Tabata and Starling Marte. Unfortunately Tabata's coming off of a disappointing year, Snider and Presley have had trouble against lefties and Marte remains an unknown commodity at the MLB level. Adding a prominent outfielder via trade or free agency seems unlikely given the Pirates' needs and resources. Hopefully for manager Clint Hurdle two of these players emerge as capable regulars in 2013. The group includes some players who began their professional careers as highly ranked prospects, so the potential for breakout seasons seems to be there. 

As I suggested earlier, the Pirates have a relatively large arbitration class that includes some non-tender candidates. Karstens could be cut loose with a projected salary approaching $4MM. There also appears to be a chance that Morton and Sanchez will be non-tendered. The group includes at least one extension candidate in first time eligible second baseman Neil Walker. The Pirates would do well to lock Walker up if they can limit costs for his four arbitration years and obtain control of at least one free agent season.

Huntington has at least one more chance to end the Pirates streak of losing seasons. If the first four months of this past season are any indication, the Pirates might be able to do even better than .500 in 2013. First things first, though. The Pirates must use their limited resources to find pitching and improve their below average offense.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Pirates Claim Ali Solis

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The Pirates have claimed catcher Ali Solis off of waivers from the Padres, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter).  Catcher Eric Fryer and first baseman Jeff Clement were designated for assignment to make room for Solis and right-hander Chad Beck to make room on the 40-man roster.

Solis, 25, spent the year in Double-A San Antonio, posting a slash line of .283/.307/.419 with six homers in 87 games.  The catcher also saw his first big league action in September, appearing in five games for the Padres.

Fryer, 27, owns a .204/.291/.275 slash line across two Triple-A seasons  Clement, 29, spent 23 games on the varsity squad and hit .276/.340/.486 in 112 Triple-A games this year.

Pirates Claim Chad Beck

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The Pirates have claimed right-hander Chad Beck off of waivers from the Blue Jays, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports (on Twitter). The Blue Jays had designated Beck for assignment earlier in the week to create 40-man roster space for Bobby Wilson.

Beck joined the Blue Jays organization in 2008 when Toronto acquired him from Arizona for David Eckstein. The 27-year-old appeared in 14 games for the Blue Jays this year after spending most of the season at Triple-A. Beck posted a 1.31 ERA with 4.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 48 innings at Las Vegas in 2012.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Lohse, Reds

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All five NL Central teams are in full-on offseason mode now that the Cardinals have been eliminated from the postseason. Here's the latest from what used to be baseball's only six-team division…

  • The Pirates have continued putting their prospects through Navy SEALS-style exercises at all hours, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. Outfield prospect Gregory Polanco told Kovacevic that he injured himself in an unconventional drill that included sprints through ice water and leaping into a sand pit. Team president Frank Coonelly stated his support for the Pirates' baseball operations staff in late September, after news of the unconventional training methods surfaced.
  • Kyle Lohse, a free agent this coming offseason, said he'd like to play for a winner, B.J. Rains of FOXSportsMidwest reports. The right-hander hasn't been in contact with the Cardinals about a new deal and is expected to sign elsewhere. "There are certain places I'd like to go and certain places I probably wouldn't," he said.
  • John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer looks at the Reds' 2013 payroll commitments and determines that if GM Walt Jocketty does anything big this offseason, it will likely be with a trade rather than a free agent signing.

Arbitration Eligibles: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Hanrahan remains an asset for the Pirates, though this year's return to a big-time strikeout rate came with the unwanted side effects of a high walk rate and a lot of flyballs.  On the surface, the Bucs have a guy who's converted 76 of 84 save opportunities the last two years with a 2.24 ERA and two All-Star game appearances.  Hanrahan will be entering his walk year.  With draft pick compensation for relievers mostly a thing of the past, GM Neal Huntington has to decide whether to trade Hanrahan or extend him in the neighborhood of $10MM per free agent year.

Elsewhere in the bullpen there's Resop, who added groundballs this year at the expense of strikeouts.  The 29-year-old is hittable yet serviceable, and he's not terribly expensive.

The Pirates have three arbitration eligible starting pitchers.  McDonald's ERA sat at 2.37 after a July 7th win; through 110 innings it seemed as if he'd turned a corner.  He was brutal over his next 13 outings, with a 7.52 ERA in 61 frames.  It was an odd season, but McDonald is expected to begin next year back in the Pirates' rotation.  Now is not the time to consider trading or extending him.

Morton had hip surgery a year ago, but was able to make his season debut in mid-April.  He lasted only nine starts before succumbing to Tommy John surgery.  He has to be considered a non-tender candidate, as otherwise the Pirates would have to pay him a projected $2.6MM in 2012 to pitch at most three and a half months.  Huntington must decide the value of the chance to control Morton for the 2014 season.  The GM was noncommittal on the subject of Karstens, who had an injury-shortened 2012 as well.  Since Karstens finished the season healthy, he might be on firmer ground than Morton.

Jones needs a platoon partner, but he did hit .289/.332/.556 with 25 home runs in 434 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.  I think he's safe, though this could be the last raise the Pirates are willing to give him.  Walker had another nice year, and the Pirates have flirted with extending the Pittsburgh native before.  In March, I suggested five years and $27MM for the Super Two second baseman.

The Pirates acquired Sanchez from the Marlins at the July trade deadline.  The 29-year-old was better for the Bucs, but still fell well short of the production of a typical starting first baseman.  There's a decent chance he's non-tendered.

If only Hanrahan, Jones, Karstens, McDonald, Walker, and Resop are retained, the Pirates would be looking at an estimated $22.3MM for six arbitration eligible players.       

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Quick Hits: Soriano, Blue Jays, Phillies, Rockies

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The Yankees will indeed make a qualifying offer to Rafael Soriano if he opts out of his contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  This morning, agent Scott Boras strongly hinted that the reliever would be opting out of his contract with the Bombers.  Rather than make a guaranteed $14MM for next season, Soriano will instead choose a $1.5MM buyout and the uncertainty of the open market.  Here's more Saturday night linkage..

Minor Moves: Slaten, Ohlendorf, Conrad

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We'll keep track of today's minor moves in this post..

  • Pirates left-hander Doug Slaten, Padres right-hander Ross Ohlendorf, and Rays third baseman Brooks Conrad are free agents after recent outright assignments, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (via Twitter).  Slaten appeared in ten major league games for Pittsburgh while posting a 2.11 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 40 relief appearances in Triple-A.  Ohlendorf had a 7.77 ERA with 39 strikeouts and 24 walks in nine starts and four relief appearances for the Padres over the summer.  Conrad saw time in 49 games for the Rays and Brewers in 2012.

Quick Hits: Pirates, Francona, Tracy, Phillies

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Sunday afternoon linkage..

  • Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review wonders if the Pirates will take a step forward in 2013.  Biertempfel notes that the Bucs find themselves with the same holes to fill as they did a year ago at catcher, first base, shortstop, right field, in the bullpen, and in the starting rotation. 
  • The hiring of Terry Francona as manager gives the Indians credibility heading into next season, opines Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (video link).  Rosenthal believes that Francona was looking for a front office that he could really trust after his uncomfortable exit from Boston.
  • Unless Jim Tracy believes that the Rockies are capable of reaching the playoffs next season, the veteran skipper should opt to part ways with the club, writes Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post.  Kiszla suggests that Tracy should find a way to leave without forfeiting his $1.4MM salary, but it has been widely reported that he simply as a handshake agreement for 2013.
  • Free agent options such as Josh Willingham and Yoenis Cespedes would have been a worthwhile investments for the Phillies last winter, writes Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  While there were missed opportunities for the club, Brookover is quick to note that injuries took their toll on the team in 2012 .

Cafardo On Johnson, Soriano, Hernandez, Hamilton

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there are some General Managers who have a few regrets regarding last winter.  Red Sox GM Ben Cherington wishes he had done more for the rotation.  Angels GM Jerry Dipoto probably would have liked to boost the bullpen more during the team's spending frenzy which netted Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.  Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd was asked to assess his own mistakes and said, “How long is this article? Just kidding. We all have regrets. When you make the amount of decisions we do, you make mistakes. So this year [Jeremy] Guthrie was acquired to give us innings, but Coors [Field] got him and that hurt us. We had such a lack of experience everywhere else. There was no margin for error, and I screwed up.”  Here's more from today's column..

  • Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson will be trade bait, despite talk to the contrary.  Miami could get a ton from teams like the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals, Rangers, Twins, and Dodgers.  On the whole, the Marlins look like they're ready to clean house again.
  • Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano would make a lot of sense for the Rays as a DH, especially since the Cubs would pick up the bulk of his final two years under contract.  Soriano could also help the Blue Jays, Orioles, or Indians.
  • Indians GM Chris Antonetti says that he expects Shin-Shoo Choo to be back with Cleveland next season as he enters his walk year, but he will also listen to offers for the 30-year-old.  Choo could make sense for Boston as they face a similar situation with Jacoby Ellsbury.  Cafardo suggests a deal involving a pitcher like Justin Masterson.
  • Teams have offered the moon for Felix Hernandez in the past but there’s no chance that Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is going to trade him now.  King Felix is under contract through 2014 and the M's have the money to keep him beyond that.  For his part, Hernandez is well-paid and loves playing in Seattle.
  • Josh Hamilton says that he won't take a discount to stay with the Rangers, but that's where he's likely to land as it's hard to read the market for him.  The Tigers, Nationals, Pirates, Phillies, Angels, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Orioles shouldn't be ruled out.  The Yankees and Red Sox also can't be crossed off the list but neither market is a strong fit for Hamilton.
  • Jake Peavy would appear to be a target for the Red Sox once his $22MM option is declined by the White Sox.  The 31-year-old could also end up staying put in Chicago or returning to the NL.
  • Former catcher Brad Ausmus, currently serving as a special assistant to the GM in San Diego, said that he would have interest in the Red Sox managerial vacancy.  As of Friday, however, he has yet to be contacted.  Ausmus turned down a chance to be interviewed for the Astros job earlier this fall.
  • The Red Sox are pursuing John Farrell, but Ryne Sandberg could be on their list, even though he was just named as the Phillies' third base coach and is likely being groomed for Charlie Manuel's job.  Cherington tried to get Sandberg to take Boston's Triple- A job a couple of years ago.
  • While some have accused Bobby Valentine of ignoring advanced scouting reporters, Cafardo says that he saw the manager reading them every time he visited his office.

Minor Moves: 28 Players Elect Free Agency

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A total of 28 players — all with big league time under their belts — recently elected free agency after finishing the year in Triple-A. Here is the full list, courtesy of the International League and Pacific Coast League transaction pages…

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