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Rays Acquire Robert Stephenson From Pirates

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1:05pm: The Pirates have now announced the deal and that Williams has been assigned to Triple-A Indianapolis. Infielder Mark Mathias has been recalled to take Stephenson’s spot on the active roster.

12:20pm: The Rays have acquired right-hander Robert Stephenson from the Pirates, reports Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. Minor league shortstop Alika Williams is heading the other way.

Stephenson, 30, came up as a starting pitcher for the Reds but has been converted to relief work over the past few years. The initial results of the bullpen move were positive, as he posted a 3.76 ERA over 57 appearances in 2019. Things took a downturn in the shortened 2020 season, however, with his ERA shooting up to 9.26 in 10 appearances that year. Prior to 2021, the Reds flipped him to the Rockies in exchange for Jeff Hoffman.

He then bounced back with a solid season in Denver, putting up a 3.13 ERA in 2021. He struggled again in 2022, running up a 6.04 ERA through August before he was designated for assignment and landed with the Pirates. He was able to finish on a high note with a 3.38 ERA in ten appearances for the Bucs down the stretch.

Here in 2023, he began the season on the injured list due to elbow inflammation but was able to return in the middle of April.  He’s since made 18 appearances but has a 5.14 ERA in those. He’s still getting punchouts at a similar rate but his control seems to have fallen off this year. He struck out 26.8% of opponents from 2019 to 2022 and walked 7.9% but those figures are 27.9% and 13.1% this year.

That’s a small sample size but Stephenson has shown himself to be fairly inconsistent in his career, with notable swings in his effectiveness. Nonetheless, the Rays will take a shot on helping him harness his stuff. Given their track record of helping flawed pitchers get the best of their arsenals, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see Stephenson get back on track in Tampa.

Despite their reputation for producing an endless stream of quality relievers, they have had some bullpen struggles this year. They have five relievers currently on the injured list, which is putting a strain on their depth. The relief group as a whole has a collective 4.32 ERA on the season, a mark that places them 22nd out of the 30 clubs in the league. They have been looking in various places for reinforcements, including calling up several arms from their own system as well signing Jake Diekman after he was released by the White Sox. Now they will add Stephenson as well to see if he can be part of the solution as they try to hold onto the top spot in the cutthroat AL East. He will just be a short-term piece, however, since he’s slated for free agency this winter.

As for Williams, 24, he was the 38th overall selection in the 2020 draft. He has generally been considered one of Tampa’s top 30 prospects in the past few years, with his speed and defense standing out as his best qualities. The key question has been whether or not his bat would allow him to complement those skills. So far, the results there have been somewhat tepid. He hit .267/.312/.375 in 2021 across three different levels, producing a wRC+ of 86. Last year, he got his line up to .249/.353/.377 for a wRC+ of 104, spending most of his time in High-A. He’s been in Double-A this year, hitting .237/.314/.417 for a wRC+ of 101.

Williams isn’t a star prospect but he comes with a solid floor given his athletic abilities. Any offensive development would be a nice bonus for the Bucs, not a bad outcome for a struggling reliever that they grabbed off waivers less than a year ago.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL Central

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

This series kicked off with the NL West last night. Today, we move to the Central.

Chicago Cubs

Hendricks has only made two starts this season. The sinkerballer was diagnosed with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last August. That required a lengthy rehab process that lingered into this month. The former ERA champion hadn’t been nearly as effective in the two years leading up to the shoulder issues as he was over his first seven seasons. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a 4.75 ERA over 274 2/3 innings. Between that back-of-the-rotation production and the injury, the Cubs seem likely to reallocate the $14.5MM difference between the option price and the buyout.

Gomes signed a two-year guarantee with Chicago going into the 2022 campaign. Initially tabbed to pair with Willson Contreras, he’s gotten the majority of the playing time alongside Tucker Barnhart this season. Gomes struggled to a .235/.260/.365 line in 86 games during his first season on the North Side. He’s playing better this season, hitting six home runs with a .273/.297/.445 batting line over his first 118 trips to the plate. The $5MM decision is a reasonable price for a veteran backstop hitting at that level, even if Gomes is more of a timeshare player than a true regular at this stage of his career.

Boxberger signed with Chicago after being bought out by the Brewers. The righty has had a tough first couple months. He allowed nine runs with a 13:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 14 2/3 innings. He hit the 15-day injured list with a forearm strain a couple weeks ago. Boxberger is throwing again but figures to miss a decent chunk of action. This is trending towards a Cubs’ buyout.

Cincinnati Reds

Votto is a franchise icon. He’s played his entire 17-season career in Cincinnati and it’s hard to envision him in another uniform. If he’s to stick with the Reds beyond this year, though, it’d almost certainly be at a cheaper price point than the option value. Votto had a below-average .205/.319/.370 batting line last season and hasn’t played this year as he works back from last August’s rotator cuff surgery.

  • Wil Myers: $12MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)

Myers’ first season as a Red hasn’t gone as planned. The offseason signee has started his Cincinnati career with a .189/.257/.283 batting line with three home runs over 141 plate appearances. Perhaps he’ll play well enough this summer the Reds can recoup something in a trade around the deadline. Cincinnati isn’t going to exercise their end of this option short of a massive turnaround, though.

Casali is part of a three-catcher group in Cincinnati. The veteran backstop has only a .157/.259/.157 line in 60 trips to the plate during his second stint as a Red. The club looks likely to decline their end of the option for the journeyman backstop.

Milwaukee Brewers

Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery last June. The Brewers signed him to a big league deal with an eye towards the second half and potentially the ’24 campaign. He’s on the 60-day injured list. This one’s still to be determined.

Pittsburgh Pirates

García landed in Pittsburgh after being non-tendered by the Giants last winter. His Bucs’ tenure hasn’t gotten off the ground. He suffered a biceps injury in Spring Training, was shut down from throwing entirely for more than a month, and has spent the year on the 60-day injured list. There’s no public clarity on his status.

St. Louis Cardinals

Six weeks ago, this looked like a no-brainer for the Cardinals to buy out. DeJong’s offensive production had absolutely nosedived since 2020. He hit only .196/.280/.351 in over 800 plate appearances between 2020-22. He struggled so badly last season the Cards optioned him to Triple-A for a spell.

The Cards continued to resist calls to move on from DeJong entirely, however. The front office has held out hope he could recapture the productive offensive form he showed through his first few seasons. They’ve been rewarded for their patience to this point in 2023. DeJong has had a surprising resurgence, popping eight home runs in 31 games. His bat has faded a bit in May after a scorching April, but the overall .234/.311/.495 line is 21 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. DeJong’s defense has always been above-average, and the offensive bounceback has gotten him back in the starting lineup at shortstop.

DeJong will need to maintain this form over an extended stretch before the Cards get to a point where it’s worthwhile to trigger the option. Tommy Edman and top prospect Masyn Winn are in the organization as potential replacements. Yet DeJong is performing better than any of the impending free agents in a weak shortstop class. That there’s a chance the front office might have to think about this one is a testament to his strong start.

Carlos Santana Leaves Game Due To Lumbar Spine Muscular Tightness

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  • Carlos Santana left during the sixth inning of the Pirates’ 6-3 loss to the Mariners today due to what the Bucs described as lumbar spine muscular tightness.  It would certainly seem like Santana will miss a couple of games to recovery, and a trip to the injured list is possible if his back problem doesn’t subside.  Connor Joe is the likeliest candidate for first base duty in Santana’s absence, but Pittsburgh might now be facing a depth problem at first base since Ji-Man Choi isn’t eligible to return from the 60-day IL until at least mid-July.

Pirates Place Vince Velasquez On 15-Day IL

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After making just one start since returning from injury, the Pirates have sent right hander Vince Velasquez back to the injured list with right elbow discomfort and recalled right hander Cody Bolton.

Velasquez threw just two innings his return from a three week layoff due to elbow discomfort yesterday, giving up four earned runs against the Mariners before being removed from the game. There’s obviously a lot of concern when a player is sent to the IL almost immediately after returning, and Velasquez relays to Pirates reporters (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) that he’ll take a bit longer to rest his elbow. Just what that timeline looks like is unclear, but it seems safe to assume that Velasquez will be out a bit longer than the three weeks he missed in May.

It’s a shame for the Bucs and Velasquez, who was enjoying a nice first season in Pittsburgh. Prior to getting knocked around yesterday, Velasquez had made seven starts of 3.06 ERA ball for the Pirates this season. That was a bright start for a player who has often flashed promising stuff, but has struggled to lock down a rotation spot in recent years. Between 2020-22, Velasquez made 37 starts and 24 relief appearances for the Phillies, Padres and White Sox, pitching to a 5.61 ERA, so this was clearly a step forward with the Bucs.

As Justice delos Santos of MLB.com mentions, GM Ben Cherington told 93.7 The Fan radio that the team had planned to shift Roansy Contreras to the bullpen before Velasquez’ injury, but it now seems those plans will be shelved and Contreras will remain in the rotation, with Bolton going to the pen.

Bolton has made a handful of appearances for the Pirates this year, pitching six innings across three appearances and giving up three earned runs. At Triple-A Indianapolis he owns a 2.08 ERA in 17 1/3 relief innings.

Vincent Velasquez Leaves Game With Elbow Soreness

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  • Vince Velasquez was activated from the 15-day injured list earlier today, but the Pirates right-hander allowed four runs in two innings before being removed from the game due to discomfort in his right elbow.  Velasquez had previously been sidelined by inflammation in that same elbow, and while he is being examined by doctors, it would seem likely that he might be headed back to the IL.  If Velasquez is again out of action, it would continue Roansy Contreras’ time as a starter, since Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported earlier today that Contreras could be headed into a relief role.

Andrew McCutchen Plans To Play In 2024, Wants To Remain With Pirates

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Andrew McCutchen’s return to Pittsburgh has thus far been a dream.  While the Bucs’ hot start has normalized to a more modest 26-25 record, it still represents a clear step up from the rebuilding and losing baseball of the previous seven seasons, and McCutchen has been a big part of that resurgence.  In addition to his expected clubhouse mentorship of the young Pirates team, McCutchen is also having a return to form on the field, hitting .269/.364/.462 with eight homers through his first 184 plate appearances.

After signing a one-year, $5MM deal last winter, McCutchen will be a free agent again this offseason, but he made it clear to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he isn’t viewing 2023 as a farewell tour.

“Tom Brady said he would stop playing when he [stunk].  I don’t want to put it in the same context, but when my body tells me I’ve had enough, then I’ve had enough,” said McCutchen, who turns 37 in October.  “My body is still saying, ‘Nah, you’re good.  You’re fine.’ ”

Obviously quite a bit can still happen with over four months remaining in the season, but on the surface, McCutchen’s comeback year doesn’t look like a fluke.  McCutchen’s BABIP is only .301, his wOBA/xwOBA are almost identical, and most of his other Statcast numbers are above average, including a 43.8% hard-hit ball rate that ranks as his highest since 2015.  The right-handed hitter is also posting roughly similar numbers against both lefties and righties, after a dropoff against right-handed pitching contributed heavily to McCutchen’s borderline average numbers from 2020-22.

After playing with the Giants, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers from 2018-22, McCutchen has regained some stability in returning to Pittsburgh, and as a result he naturally wants to remain with the Pirates in the future.

“As long as things continue to be the way that they are, I’m going to continue to keep going,” McCutchen said.  “I want to do it here.  I don’t want to do it anywhere else.  I don’t want to continue my career on another team…..That ballpark gives me a different boost or jolt of energy that I didn’t really have.  I don’t know if it’s familiarity or the comfortability of being in Pittsburgh once again.  The surroundings, the vibe when you’re on the field, I didn’t have that anywhere else.  It’s good to be able to feel all those things again.”

McCutchen and the Pirates have yet to discuss an extension, though as Mackey notes, a new contract “shouldn’t be much more than a formality” considering how openly McCutchen wants to stay put.  From the Pirates’ viewpoint, it’s easy to imagine that the Bucs would want to retain a franchise icon who has continued to be such a productive player.

Pirates Designate Duane Underwood Jr. For Assignment

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According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates have designated right-hander Duane Underwood Jr. for assignment.  The move clears a spot on the active roster for right-hander Vince Velasquez, who is being activated from the 15-day IL to start this afternoon’s game against the Mariners.

Underwood was a second-round draft pick by the Cubs in the 2012 draft and made his MLB debut with the club in 2018. He would ultimately pitch in Chicago for parts of three seasons, posting a 5.20 ERA and 4.85 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work before being designated for assignment ahead of the 2021 season. The Pirates promptly acquired the righty in exchange for minor league first baseman Shendrik Apostel and installed him in their bullpen, where he has remained ever since.

In three seasons with the Pirates, Underwood has posted a 4.49 ERA that clocks in at 5% below league average by measure of ERA+, with a solid 3.90 FIP, a 20% strikeout rate, and a 9.3% walk rate. Those results have taken a turn for the worse this season, however, as Underwood has posted a 5.10 ERA and 5.18 FIP in 24 1/3 innings of work. Under the hood, Underwood’s strikeout rate has dropped from 22% last season to just 14% so far int he 2023 campaign, while his walk rate has climbed to a near-matching 11%. With nearly as many walks as strikeouts so far this season, it’s hardly surprising that the Pirates have made the decision to pull the plug on the 28-year-old righty.

The Pirates will have one week to either trade Underwood or put him through waivers. With three years of service time, Underwood has the right to reject an outright assignment, though doing so would forfeit his $1.025MM contract.

As for Velasquez, the veteran right-hander, who celebrates his 31st birthday two weeks from today, posted solid results for the Pirates in seven starts prior to being placed on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation earlier this month. Velasquez sports a 3.05 ERA in 35 1/3 innings this season, though his 82.4% strand rate leaves reason to believe regression could be in the righty’s future.

Miguel Andujar Accepts Outright Assignment From Pirates

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May 23: As expected, Andujar has once again accepted his outright assignment, per Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

May 22: The Pirates have outrighted outfielder Miguel Andujar to Triple-A Indianapolis, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That suggests he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week.

It’s hardly a shock that Andujar, 28, didn’t get scooped up by one of the 29 other clubs off waivers. He hit just .161/.212/.387 in his 33 plate appearances since having his contract selected at the end of April. He had already passed through waivers in January and that mediocre performance didn’t do much to increase his stock around the league, though he did hit a much stronger .284/.364/.500 in Triple-A prior to getting called up.

The peak of his career so far came with the Yankees back in 2018 when he hit 27 home runs and slashed .297/.328/.527, leading to a second-place finish in American League Rookie of the Year voting behind Shohei Ohtani. But shoulder surgery wiped out much of his 2019 and he found his third base position staffed by players like DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela when he returned, pushing him to a depth role and a move to the outfield. Since then, he continually mashes in the minors but struggles when given another chance in the majors. Going back to the start of 2020, he’s hit .291/.346/.508 on the farm but just .237/.268/.354 in the show.

Andujar technically has the right to reject this outright assignment and elect free agency, both because he has more than three years of service time and a previous outright. However, he lacks the five years of service required to reject it while retaining his salary. He’s making $1.525MM for the season, which likely led to him going unclaimed both times he was on waivers and him accepting the outright assignment the first time. It seems likely he will accept the outright a second time and stick with in the Pirates’ organization, trying to work his way back to the majors yet again.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023

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It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…

Currently on a Major League Roster

Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate

Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.

At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.

Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate

The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.

The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.

Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate

Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.

Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.

Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate

Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.

Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.

Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate

The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.

Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.

Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.

Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate

Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.

Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.

Currently on the Major League Injured List

  • Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
  • Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
  • Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.

Currently in DFA Limbo

  • Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.

Already Returned to their Former Club

  • Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
  • Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
  • Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
  • Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
  • Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
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