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Reds To Cut Payroll, Big Names Could Be Dealt

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Add the Reds to the list of teams that are slashing, rather than spending, this off-season.  Fanhouse's Ed Price and Jeff Fletcher are reporting that Cincinnati is looking to cut their payroll from $71MM in 2009 to between the $65-$70MM range next season.  While it may not sound like much of a reduction, Cot's Baseball Contracts lists the Reds as owing just under $66MM to just ten players for next season, leaving little room to fill out the rest of the roster.

Lagging attendance figures are to blame for the Reds' financial cutbacks.  Price and Fletcher noted that attendance at the Great American Ballpark dropped by more than 15 percent from 2008 to 2009.  General manager Walt Jocketty was quoted in the piece as saying, "We're going to probably have less to spend this year than we have in the past…It just depends on how [ticket] sales go this offseason."

If Cincinnati does make a deal, the likeliest candidates to be moved are second baseman Brandon Phillips (owed just under $7MM in 2010), and pitchers Aaron Harang ($12.5MM) and Bronson Arroyo ($12.25MM).  Phillips, with his .452 slugging percentage over the last four seasons, is the most attractive candidate to other clubs given his power from the second base position and reasonable contract.  Harang and Arroyo are both coming off decent years themselves, but Price and Fletcher speculate that their bigger contract numbers would require the Reds to absorb a chunk of their salaries if traded.

One star player who looks to be staying in Cincinnati is closer Francisco Cordero, who Price and Fletcher say the club "would prefer to keep" despite the $25MM he's owed through 2011.  A very intriguing trade chip could be young slugger Joey Votto, if the Reds wanted to make room for star prospect Yonder Alonso at first base.  Another team could be convinced to take on a bad contract if it meant getting Votto, who isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season.

Reds Report: Volquez, Bruce, Gomes

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To put it mildly, this has been a rough year for Reds fans.  Edinson Volquez had the Cincinnati faithful buzzing after posting a 3.21 ERA with 9.5 K/9 in his first full season in 2008.  After logging just nine starts in the 2009 campaign, Volquez needed surgery to repair damage in his right elbow.  The Reds faded fast as their depleted staff wasn't getting much of a lift from their sagging offense.  Injuries to Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion (prior to being dealt to Toronto) certainly didn't do them any favors.

However, if the team's recent performance is any indication of what lies ahead, Reds fans might have something to cheer about in 2010.  Dusty Baker's squad has gone 19-11 since September 1st, thanks in part to stronger pitching (3.39 team ERA) and the return of Jay Bruce, who missed two months with a broken wrist.

Buster Olney, Baseball Prospectus and the ESPN Insider staff compiled a glance at this past season and what to expect next year in Cincy.  An ESPN Insider account is needed to read the article, but here are the brass tacks for those without:

  • It's no secret that the Reds don't have a top-flight budget.  They opened this season with a payroll of $73MM and owner Bob Castellini isn't going to "go all Steinbrenner" and tack-on much more.
  • Further exacerbating their financial woes are their pricey commitments to Bronson Arroyo, Francisco Cordero, Aaron Harang and Scott Rolen.  Combined, these four players are owed $46.5 million next season.
  • Olney says that considering their lack of flexibility this offseason, Homer Bailey might be their best chance for improvement as he recorded a 2.41 ERA in September.  The velocity that made Bailey such a highly-coveted prospect has returned, with his fastball being clocked at an average of 94.5 MPH this year.  This is a big step-up from his previous big league work and could spell an even bigger jump in 2010.
  • Baseball Prospectus says that their "acceptable" rate of 4.5 runs allowed per game is due in part to their much-improved defense.  It will be interesting to see if defensive-minded yet weak-hitting shortstop Paul Janish will be the Reds' starter next season.  Manager Dusty Baker said on Friday that a "definitive decision" hasn't been made yet.
  • Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus notes that the combined efforts of all Reds batting in the top two lineup spots resulted in a slash line of .245/.301/.354.  When Willy Taveras hit the DL in August, Dusty Baker put rookie Drew Stubbs and the aforementioned Janish at the top of the order.  The team has gone 27-15 since then, but Jaffe attributes most of the credit for that to the improved performance of the pitching staff.
  • The "Rumor Central" portion of the piece encourages Reds fans that are anxious to see the team acquire a big bat to consider what the offense is capable of if they are healthy.  Injury-free seasons from Bruce and Votto should give Cincinnati a major boost.
  • The report says to expect the Reds to tender Jonny Gomes an offer as he is arbitration-eligible.  This should come as no surprise as Gomes has belted 20 HRs in 311 plate appearances while posting .266/.338/.540.
  • Jaffe says that Jocketty could deal Arroyo or Harang to give the team room to make a mid-level signing this winter.  He adds, "…It's difficult to envision this team breaking out of the middle of the pack without keen vision and bold steps."

Reds Rumors: Looking To 2010

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The Reds seem unlikely to make a move. As they stand, John Fay of The Cincinatti Enquirer asks whether the Reds have a shot at making a run in 2010. His answer?

“It will depend on how the young players develop. Adding [Scott] Rolen’s salary took away all of the flexibility the Reds had in their payroll. They’d have to move one of the aforementioned veteran pitchers in the offseason to open money to pursue free agents. That’s probably not going to happen. Again, when the Reds got Rolen, it was a clear signal that CEO Bob Castellini thought the Reds were a short-term fix from contending in 2010.”

The “aforementioned veteran pitchers” he mentions: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, or Francisco Cordero. Fay notes their are several holes in which young players will need to step up. He breaks them down by position.

Reds Seem Unlikely To Make Trades

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It doesn't look like the Reds will make any more trades between now and the end of August, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Aaron Harang's emergency appendectomy and Bronson Arroyo's substance taking and oversized contract mean a trade involving either pitcher would be a surprise. Francisco Cordero has $27MM remaining on his contract and a no-trade clause, so it doesn't appear that the Reds will trade him, either.

Just last week, Fay wondered if the Reds could move Jonny Gomes, who makes just $600k, or five percent of Cordero's annual salary.

Odds & Ends: Harang, Ichiro, Cubs, Mets, The Draft

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Some odds and ends from around the league:

  • Aaron Harang had to have an emergency appendectomy and will miss the remainder of the season as a result, says Ed Price. Harang will make $10.5MM in 2010 and will pitch for a $12.75MM club option that increases to $13MM if he reaches 210 IP. It's worth noting, if the Reds trade Harang next season, the option increases to $14MM and becomes mutual. Earlier this month, John Fay suggested the Reds don't think their fans will embrace a rebuilding effort, but that the team is hamstrung by too many large contracts that have not worked out.
  • Jon Paul Morosi asks whether or not Ichiro Suzuki is a Hall of Fame lock?
  • Gordon Wittenmyer notes Cubs players feel Lou Piniella, who recently announced his intention to return in 2010, is the right man for the job.
  • Joel Sherman doubts any decisions about bringing back Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel have been finalized.
  • The New York Times Dan Rosenheck suggests ending the draft, and perhaps an expansion and reform of revenue sharing. The article refers to the current system as a "bargain [that] has distorted the game's economics. Minor leaguers and players with less than three years of service time remain pseudoslaves." Rosenheck writes:

"A study by Erik Manning of Fangraphs.com found that the production of an average No. 1 draft pick during the 1990s was worth $51.5 million on the free-agent market, while the commissioner’s recommendation for their bonuses is $3.6 million. As a result, clubs jealously hoard their prospects, often refusing to trade them even for superstars. The massive profits extracted from these players are divided among overpaid veterans and the owners."

The piece also recommends players from the U.S. be granted the right to choose their employer, "a freedom enjoyed by their Latin American counterparts. This would not necessarily raise salaries over all but would distribute them more evenly, benefiting both the players… and the game."

Rosenthal On Trembley, Yankees, Wagner

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports believes the Orioles should stick with manager Dave Trembley next year because his teams haven't quit; they've just been overmatched. Rosenthal says it looks like Trembley's "a goner." Here are the rest of the rumors:

  • Rosenthal says Jim Riggleman and even Bobby Cox are among the managers with uncertain futures.
  • The Yankees inquired on Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, but lost interest when the Reds refused to send money along.  
  • The Yankees are looking for starting pitching, but aren't likely to add anyone before rosters expand at the beginning of September. 
  • Billy Wagner could be a trade target, but the Mets would have to be prepared to take on salary in any deal. 
  • Rosenthal says Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, Luis Valbuena, Carlos Santana and others should give the Indians strength up the middle for years. 

Odds And Ends: Macha, Harang, Smoltz

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This round of links is on me…

  • Brewers manager Ken Macha told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy that he manages the same whether others think he has complete job security or not.
  • Erik Manning of FanGraphs says it's hard to tell whether Aaron Harang has enough value to offset his contract going forward, but he suggests it's possible.
  • Via Twitter, Rob Neyer of ESPN.com has some fun and asks if Yuniesky Betancourt is the worst player in baseball history. 
  • Over at MLBTR's Facebook page, we have a discussion about John Smoltz on the go.  

Stark On Smoltz, Reds, Strasburg, Thome

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ESPN.com's Jayson Stark adds the Astros to the list of teams interested in John Smoltz. Here are the rest of his rumors:

  • The Cubs could look for another bat and another starter, but it depends on how healthy Aramis Ramirez, Ted Lilly and Carlos Zambrano are.
  • Stark points out that Aaron Harang's 2011 club option becomes a more expensive $14MM mutual option if he's traded. The Reds haven't seemed willing to take on cash in a trade involving Harang or rotation-mate Bronson Arroyo. 
  • The Yanks don't appear to have interest in either Reds starter, or John Smoltz, for that matter. 
  • Don't expect any serious negotiating to occur between the Nationals, Scott Boras and Stephen Strasburg before the last minute. Most execs who Stark surveyed expect Strasburg to sign in the end.
  • The Braves could re-sign Adam LaRoche after the season, when the first baseman will hit free agency. 
  • Jim Thome still impresses scouts and should be able to find work as a DH after the season. 
  • Some teams doubt Vicente Padilla's character because the Rangers are ready to part with him even though they need pitching.
  • Some of Alex Rios' former teammates question the outfielder's work ethic and desire.  
  • Stark hears that Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Niemann were claimed on waivers and quickly pulled back by the Rays. 
  • The Braves made a quick run at Victor Martinez before the Red Sox acquired him, but didn't get very far. 
  • Though their negotiations with Aaron Crow could theoretically continue into late spring, the Royals may impose a deadline of their own to sign their top pick.  

Odds & Ends: Reds, Mariners, Yankees

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A few more links to peruse this evening:

Arroyo And Harang Clear Waivers

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Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang cleared waivers, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Both pitchers have large contracts through 2010 and club options for 2011 with $2MM buyouts. Arroyo makes $9.5MM this year and $11MM next year; Harang makes $11MM this year, and $12.5MM next year. The Reds would likely have to take on salary in any trades involving the starters, who can now be traded to any team.

Arroyo, 32, has allowed 159 hits in 144.2 innings and a career-high homer rate has led to 25 longballs. He's struck out 82 and walked 55, so it's no surprise that teams were unwilling to pick up his contract.

Harang, 31, has struck out 132 and walked just 38, but he's been about as hittable and homer-prone as Arroyo.

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