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Aaron Judge

Yankees Notes: Judge, Trivino, Loaisiga

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9:51pm: Judge said postgame he expected to be sidelined for a few days but downplayed any significant concern (Boland link).

9:23pm: AL MVP Aaron Judge left tonight’s game in Texas in the bottom of the fourth inning. The Yankees later informed reporters that Judge was experiencing some discomfort in his right hip (relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Oswaldo Cabrera came off the bench to take over right field.

The club will surely provide more on Judge’s status in the near future. At the moment, there’s nothing to suggest it was more than a precautionary move to keep the star slugger healthy. Judge has been in the starting lineup for all 26 of New York’s games. While he’s not hitting at last year’s superhuman level, the four-time All-Star has a well above-average .261/.352/.511 batting line with six home runs in 108 trips to the plate.

Elsewhere on the Yankee roster, manager Aaron Boone provided reporters with injury updates on a pair of relievers before tonight’s contest. Right-hander Lou Trivino is headed for a second opinion on his injured elbow, tweets Greg Joyce of the New York Post. Trivino hasn’t pitched this season because of an elbow sprain. The Yankees had announced early in Spring Training that he’d be out into May but that timeline was further pushed back when he recently experienced renewed soreness. The 31-year-old met with Yankees’ physician Christopher Ahmad yesterday.

Acquired from the A’s alongside Frankie Montas last summer, Trivino threw 21 2/3 innings of 1.66 ERA ball down the stretch for New York. The former Oakland closer had been quite effective from 2020-21 but was off to a rough first half to the ’22 campaign before righting the ship in the Bronx. He could be a medium to high-leverage arm in the Yankee relief corps if healthy but the mention of a second opinion for an elbow concern raises the possibility of a long-term absence.

Fellow righty Jonathan Loáisiga has been out since the second week of the season with inflammation in his throwing elbow. While it doesn’t seem there’s a ton of long-term concern there, Boone told reporters the 28-year-old was experiencing some soreness after a throwing session yesterday (via Erik Boland of Newsday). The club hasn’t provided many specifics, though it’s possible Loáisiga finds himself a little behind schedule in his rehab process as a result.

List Of Players On Track For 10-And-5 Rights

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In baseball parlance, players are often said to have “10-and-5 rights” or the player might be described as a “10-and-5 guy.” Any player who has 10 or more years of service time and has been with his current club for five or more consecutive years gets veto power over any trade involving them. This essentially functions the same as a no-trade clause, which players can negotiate into their contracts. But with 10-and-5 rights, the right is gained automatically once the conditions are met. There is often overlap, as players that have no-trade clauses will eventually earn 10-and-5 rights as well, which makes it a moot point in those cases.

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

Yankees Notes: Kiner-Falefa, Judge, Center Field

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As youngsters Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe make strong cases to take over the Yankees’ starting shortstop role, there’s been plenty of speculation over the future of Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That speculation has only intensified as the Yankees have announced a series of injuries that’ll affect their roster over the opening few weeks of the season and beyond.

Kiner-Falefa is owed $6MM this year, and does appear to be lagging behind in the race to win the shortstop job. The Yankees have been giving him time at second and third base, and plan to work him out in the outfield this spring, which suggests they may view him as more of a utility player at this point. Yet the team already has the highly impressive Oswaldo Cabrera capable of bouncing round the diamond as a utility option, and he’ll only earn the league minimum in 2023.

Now, with the Yankees dealing with rotation, bullpen and outfield injuries to Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Tommy Kahnle and Harrison Bader, it would make some sense for the team to deal from their infield depth to address other areas. According to Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the Yankees have had conversations with the Dodgers and Rockies over Kiner-Falefa. It’s not known the exact timeline or extent of those conversations, but it’s worth noting the Dodgers checked in on Kiner-Falefa early in the off-season prior to acquiring Miguel Rojas from the Marlins.

General manager Brian Cashman addressed the trade market to reporters, and while he didn’t specifically name Kiner-Falefa (or any other infielders), he certainly didn’t close the door on a deal involving their infielders before the start of the regular season.

“I would say typically trade conversations usually are a bit more serious in the second part of camp than the first part. I do know that’s an area of strength for this franchise right now in real time. So if somebody is looking for help, we wouldn’t be surprised if they’re knocking on our door,” Cashman said.

A trade could help them address their thinning rotation and bullpen stock, but even with Bader on the shelf for a while, it doesn’t appear the outfield is a pressing need. As Kuty notes in a separate piece, Bader’s injury likely means a temporary return to center field for Aaron Judge. That would allow the Yankees to give Giancarlo Stanton more at bats in right field, with Cabrera and Aaron Hicks likely to handle left. Rafael Ortega and Estevan Florial are other candidates to fill in with Bader out, but it appears Hicks – a career center fielder who moved to left last year – is not among them, with Kuty noting it seems the Yankees prefer to keep him in left.

Speaking of Judge, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic sheds some more light on the high profile free agency of the new Yankees captain. While it’s been widely reported that the Yankees’ decision to tack on a ninth-year and take the total value of the contract to $360MM sealed the deal, there’s been a little bit of uncertainty over the extent of the Padres late interest in the slugger. According to Rosenthal, the Padres put forward a deal in the range of $415MM over at least 12 years.

AL Notes: Judge, Brash, Tigers, White Sox

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After spending most of his career in right field and spending much of 2022 in center, it’s possible the reigning AL MVP will be taking reps in left field this spring. Yankees manager Aaron Boone tells reporters, including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, that Judge playing some left field is “on the table” for this spring.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported yesterday that this was a consideration, with the goal being to allow slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who figures to be the team’s primary designated hitter, to play right on his days in the outfield due to Yankee Stadium’s outfield being far more spacious in left than in right. For his part, Judge told reporters, including ESPN’s Marly Rivera, that he wouldn’t mind Stanton playing more right field and taking reps in left if needed.

Stanton struggled with durability early on in his Yankees career, including just 41 games played in the 2019 and 2020 seasons combined. Since then, his transition to primarily playing DH has seemingly helped him stay on the field, as he played 249 games combined across the past two seasons, with just 64 of those games including an appearance in the outfield. In 2022, 34 of Stanton’s 38 games in the outfield took place in right, as Judge spent most of his time in center field. This year, 2022 trade deadline acquisition Harrison Bader figures to get most of the reps in center field, leaving Judge to spend more time in left if Stanton is to continue to make most his outfield starts in right.

More from the American League…

  • The Athletic’s Corey Brock discussed yesterday the role of Mariners right-hander Matt Brash, who is set to begin the 2023 season as a member of the bullpen. Brash made the 2022 Opening Day roster as a starter but struggled mightily, posting a 7.65 ERA across five starts before being demoted to Triple-A. Brash returned later in the season as a reliever and dominated, posting a 2.35 ERA in 30 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen down the stretch. Brock notes that Brash hopes to get another shot at starting in the future, and though he isn’t being stretched out this spring, the Mariners remain open to the possibility down the line.
  • Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke to the media, including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, yesterday about the relatively quiet offseason in Detroit. Harris made note that, follow a disappointing 96-loss season, it didn’t make sense to acquire short term veterans who would take up what he called valuable at-bats that could go to young players who would be part of the next core. Detroit acquired a few such players, particularly in the trade that sent reliever Gregory Soto to the Phillies. That deal brought back Matt Vierling, Nick Maton, and Donny Sands, all of whom figure to get playing time in the big leagues with Detroit in 2023.
  • Staying in the AL Central, White Sox GM Rick Hahn discussed how Chicago’s offseason had gone with reporters yesterday, including James Fegan of The Athletic. The White Sox made three key additions to their roster following a disappointing 81-81 campaign, signing righty Mike Clevinger, outfielder Andrew Benintendi, and most recently infielder Elvis Andrus to big league deals, with Benintendi’s five-year, $75MM contract being the only multiyear pact of the group. Hahn, referring back to his comments earlier in the offseason that he expected the club to be active on the trade market, noted the discrepancy between that expectation and what came to pass, saying “I did expect there to be more trades… You go into the offseason with needs and potential fits, and over the course of the offseason, you adjust based on what’s viable, both in free agency and via trade. Sometimes teams are pricing guys differently than expected.” As Fegan notes, a quiet offseason on the south side is somewhat unsurprising giving the club’s stated expectation that payroll would stay largely static headed into 2023.

Brian Cashman Discusses Yankees’ Injuries, Offseason

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman was a guest on the latest edition of The Front Office with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, and discussed a number of topics related to the Bronx Bombers’ offseason.  Perhaps most notably, some more moves could still potentially take place, as Cashman said the team would still like to add a left-handed hitting outfielder “to balance us out” in the left field mix.

While the Yankees have a noticeably right-handed heavy roster, left field is actually one of the only positions that already has some balance, between switch-hitters Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera, plus the left-handed hitting Estevan Florial.  However, New York might prefer to move Cabrera all around the diamond rather than commit him to a fuller-time role in left field, Florial is still an untested commodity at the MLB level, and rumors continue to swirl that the Yankees are trying to trade Hicks and at least some of the $30.5MM remaining on his contract.

Cashman cited the Hicks/Cabrera/Florial trio as the team’s “default” for left field in lieu of any other moves, and noted that the Yankees are intrigued by what they see from their in-house options.  Cashman said that Hicks “is fully recovered now” from the knee injury suffered in Game 5 of the ALDS, which kept Hicks from participating in the ALCS against the Astros.

In other health news, Cashman shared some details on Frankie Montas, following last week’s news that shoulder inflammation would keep Montas sidelined through the first month of the season.  Montas is only set to begin his normal offseason throwing program this coming week, and thus he’ll need more time to fully ramp up.  The right-hander visited Dr. Neal ElAttrache two weeks ago, Cashman said, and the silver lining is that Montas’ shoulder problem doesn’t appear to be structural.  “All the diagnostic testing shows a thumbs up….and we’ll know a lot more as the throwing program commences,” Cashman said.

With Montas now sidelined for at least part of the season, the Bombers’ acquisition of Carlos Rodon has become even more important, as the starting staff might not miss a beat with Rodon joining Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes at the front end of the rotation.  Cashman revealed that the Yankees first tried to acquire Rodon from the Giants prior to the trade deadline, and though the club “had our conversations with San Francisco” about a possible deal, the Giants opted to keep Rodon because they felt they still had a shot at both reaching the playoffs and re-signing the left-hander this winter.

As it happened, the Giants finished 81-81 and missed the postseason, and Rodon departed for the Bronx on a six-year, $162MM contract.  Even with the Yankees focused on Aaron Judge, Cashman said the team “stayed in touch with [agent] Scott Boras and Rodon,” and the GM felt the Yankees were helped because “I know that this is the place [Rodon] wanted to be.”

Rodon’s interest in wearing the pinstripes was a boost to a club whose entire offseason was more or less put on hold while Judge made his decision.  Even amidst the fast-moving nature of this winter’s free agent market, “thankfully there were things on the board still after [Judge re-signed], since we weren’t sure what was going to be in play,” Cashman noted.  Once Judge had officially agreed to return to New York, “ultimately we were able to pivot” to also land Rodon.

There was certainly some risk involved in the process of making such a priority of Judge, as “certainly no team wants that scenario where you put all your eggs in that basket and then the basket comes up with goose eggs,” Cashman said.  Still, the front office had little choice but to wait for Judge’s decision, especially since the AL MVP and his camp gave seemingly little information about which way he was leaning, despite Judge’s public declaration that he preferred to remain with the Yankees.

“I felt like for a long time we were flying blind,” Cashman said.  “Normally you kind of get a feel for where things are at, and if you can come to the right number, or you get the numbers whispered….My speculative thought on [Judge’s] end was that he earned the right to free agency and he was going to go through that process in a very methodical, deliberate way.”

“In terms of negotiation, that waiting game….at times, it was difficult.”

Fortunately for Cashman, the Yankees, and the Bronx fans, Judge chose to re-sign for a nine-year, $360MM deal, and he’ll remain as the centerpiece of New York’s lineup.  In terms of another returning face, “hopefully we have pure health on DJ LeMahieu’s side,” Cashman noted, “since he was a huge part that we lost last year, really the last two years with two separate injuries.”

A sports hernia kept LeMahieu from participating in the 2021 postseason, while a ligament issue in his right foot/toe area sidelined him for last year’s playoffs.  It wasn’t entirely clear whether or not LeMahieu would ultimately need surgery to correct the problem, and while Cashman didn’t firmly provide an update on the infielder’s status one way or the other, the lack of news could be a good omen that LeMahieu’s efforts to rehab the injury without surgery are working.

If LeMahieu is healthy, Cashman described his role as an infielder who can play every day while bouncing around the infield, playing first base, second base, and third base.  Breaking down the starting infield, Cashman cited Anthony Rizzo at first base, Gleyber Torres at second base, Josh Donaldson at third base, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa competing with star prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe for the shortstop job.  Naturally there still might be some flux in this plan, depending on LeMahieu’s health and the fact that Donaldson is also reportedly a player the Yankees are trying to unload in order to save some payroll space.

Yankees Sign Aaron Judge To Nine-Year Deal

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December 21: Judge will make even salaries of $40MM throughout the course of the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

December 20: The Yankees have made it official today, announcing the deal.

December 7: The reigning American League MVP isn’t going anywhere. Free-agent outfielder Aaron Judge has agreed to terms on a new contract with the Yankees, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The deal, which is still pending a physical, will guarantee Judge $360MM over a nine-year term, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Aaron Judge

It’s the largest free-agent contract in MLB history, handily topping Bryce Harper’s previous $330MM record. The $40MM average annual value on the contract establishes a new record among position players and trails only the matching $43.333MM AAVs of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander — both of whom are on shorter-term deals — for the largest in MLB history. Judge is represented by Page Odle of PSI Sports Management.

Judge’s decision to remain in New York puts an end to a weeks-long saga that saw him primarily fixated on the Yankees and Giants, his two most serious suitors from the moment he rejected a qualifying offer issued by the Yankees. The Giants were reported to have made a similar offer yesterday, and Morosi tweets that Judge turned down higher offers after ultimately deciding he preferred to remain a Yankee. The Padres, notably, made a late offer worth a reported $400MM in an attempt to woo Judge, albeit to no avail. Judge will now likely spend his entire career in Yankee pinstripes, as the new contract will run through his age-39 season.

Judge famously bet on himself heading into the 2022 season, turning down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer from the Yankees in Spring Training. General manager Brian Cashman took the uncommon step of announcing the terms of the Yankees’ final offer to the public. While that unorthodox tactic upset Judge — as the outfielder himself has since publicly stated — it also leaves no doubt as to the numbers that were offered and thus gives a clear window into just how much the 2022 MVP gained in betting on himself. Judge’s gamble drew some scrutiny, but in the end, he secured an additional two years and a jaw-dropping $146.5MM — a 68.6% increase over the originally proposed guarantee.

It’s a massive win for Judge — one that was earned on the heels of a season the likes of which baseball fans have not seen since Barry Bonds dominated during the steroid era. Judge led the Majors in home runs, runs scored, RBIs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and total bases, finishing out the year with a comical .311/.425/.686 batting line and a new American League record of 62 home runs.

It’s nearly impossible to draw up a better platform season for a free agent. Judge not only captivated baseball fans but caught the attention of sports fans everywhere while chasing down Roger Maris’ longstanding record, evidenced by being named Time Magazine’s Athlete of the Year. Judge thrived in a national spotlight with the game’s highest-profile team and also almost singlehandedly prevented a second-half collapse by the Yankees. Judge mashed at a .349/.502/.784 clip following the All-Star break, belting 29 home runs and reaching base in more than half of his 307 plate appearances. The rest of the lineup, meanwhile, looked utterly lifeless in the season’s final months; non-Judge Yankees hitters combined for a disastrous .223/.292/.360 slash after the All-Star break.

Those heroics simultaneously pushed the Yankees to a division crown in the AL East (thus landing them a first-round bye in the newly expanded playoff format) and painted a gruesome picture for Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner of just what a Judge-less Yankee team might look like moving forward. While Judge finally went cold with a 1-for-16 slump in a brutal ALCS that saw his team score just nine total runs in a sweep at the hands of the eventual-champion Astros, it’s unlikely the Yankees would’ve even reached that point had he not put the team on his back in such dramatic fashion.

By measure of wRC+, which weights for a hitter’s league environment and home park, Judge was 107% better than an average big league hitter in 2022. It’s the highest single-season mark any qualified hitter has posted since Bonds in 2004, and if you prefer to set Bonds aside for PED reasons, Judge’s 2022 wRC+ is the best of any hitter since Ted Williams in 1957. There’s no overstating just how remarkable his 2022 season proved to be.

Of course, Judge is hardly a one-year wonder. Setting aside some struggles in a brief 2016 call-up that saw him tally just 95 plate appearances, the former No. 32 overall draft pick has been one of baseball’s best hitters for the past six seasons. A 52-homer campaign in 2017 earned Judge not only a unanimous selection as the American League Rookie of the Year but also a second-place finish in AL MVP voting. Injuries impacted each of his next three seasons, however. Judge missed nearly two months in 2018 when he fractured his wrist upon being hit by a pitch, and he missed time in 2019-20 with a severe oblique strain and a pair of calf strains.

Over the past two seasons, however, Judge has appeared in 94% of the Yankees’ games and been among the game’s very best players in the process. In addition to his 2022 MVP win, he earned a fourth-place finish in MVP balloting in 2021 after slashing .287/.373/.544 with 39 home runs. Virtually every batted-ball metric under the sun supports the notion that Judge is a generational talent at the plate. He led the Majors in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and max exit velocity in each of the past two seasons, according to Statcast, which also ranks Judge as MLB’s leader in “expected” slugging percentage and weighted on-base average in that span.

Judge’s power profile is so prodigious that it’s easy to overlook his defensive skill set, but doing so would undersell his all-around value. Listed at 6’7″ and 282 pounds, Judge might draw the assumption that he’s a plodding slugger who’s a liability with the glove, but that’s in no way reflective of reality. To the contrary, Judge’s 61 Defensive Runs Saved since his Major League debut tie him for eighth among all MLB players, regardless of position. Statcast placed his sprint speed in the 50th percentile among MLB players in 2022, while his arm strength landed in the 93rd percentile. Judge will surely slow down over the life of the contract, but at least for the time being, he’s even a viable option in center field, where he logged a career-high 632 innings this past season and turned in above-average marks in DRS, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average.

Since Judge’s first full season came at age 25 and he’s set to turn 31 early in the first season of his new contract, it’s easy to see why the Yankees initially tried to limit the contract to a seven-year term.  Instead, Judge’s legendary 2022 campaign pushed them to compete with other teams in free agency and offer a nine-year contract that will carry him through age 39.  Long-term contracts paying even through age 38 have been exceedingly rare in the last decade.  Arguably the only other player who’s done that without compromising on the average annual value is Mike Trout, who tacked on ten years and $360MM in a March 2019 extension.  In contrast, Phillies-for-life Bryce Harper and Trea Turner accepted AAVs of $25.4MM and $27.3MM, respectively.

Judge’s aging curve will be an issue for another day.  Looking at financial component of this agreement for 2023, it comes at an even larger cost to the Yankees than the bottom-line, $360MM guarantee. New York was about $5.8MM shy of the luxury-tax barrier prior to agreeing to terms with Judge, as projected by Roster Resource, and his $40MM AAV now catapults them into the second tier of luxury penalization.

As a second-time offender, they’re subject to a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the luxury threshold and a 42.5% tax for the next $20MM. They’ll pay a 75% tax on the next $20MM by which they exceed the threshold and a 90% tax on every dollar spent thereafter. Judge bumps the Yankees to a projected $267.2MM worth of luxury obligations, meaning if the Yankees called it an offseason right now, they’d be on the hook for approximately $12.035MM in penalties. That seems unlikely, however, and any further additions will come with substantial taxes, as New York now sits $5.8MM shy of the third tier of penalties (and the aforementioned 75% tax rate). The Yankees have been reported to hold strong interest in free-agent ace Carlos Rodon, though it’s not clear whether Steinbrenner has the appetite for a $40MM AAV on Judge and an AAV approaching or even exceeding $30MM for Rodon.

It’s possible, if not likely, that they’ll look to get out from underneath the remainder of their onerous commitments to Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks via the trade market, but the Yankees would need to pay down a substantial portion of either player’s salary to facilitate such a trade (or take on another bad contract in return). There’s also been speculation about the Yankees possibly dealing from their sizable arbitration class, with infielder Gleyber Torres a commonly cited possibility.

Judge’s enormous AAV not only makes the Yankees a lock to repeat as a second-time luxury payor — it also makes them quite likely to be a third-time offender in 2024, when they’re already projected for nearly $170MM in luxury obligations. That figure doesn’t include any of the team’s arbitration-eligible players, and any multi-year additions this winter will increase that number. With Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Harrison Bader all set for free agency following the 2023 campaign, the Yankees will likely be on the lookout for both rotation and outfield help in the next 12 to 15 months.

Those moving parts coalesce to demonstrate how quickly the Yankees’ luxury figure could balloon. Teams crossing the luxury tax for the third consecutive season are taxed at rates of 50% (first $20MM), 65% (next $20MM), 95% (next $20MM) and 110% (all dollars thereafter).

All of that is secondary to the Yankees, however, who entered the offseason hell-bent on retaining the league MVP and burgeoning franchise icon. They went to record-setting levels in order to make it happen, furthering the future market for star-caliber free agents in the process, but it’s surely a day for celebration in the organization regardless of any down-the-road consequences.

From a broader market perspective, Judge’s deal with the Yankees not only puts a bow on one of the highest-profile free agencies in recent memory — it’s also likely to serve as a facilitator for a flurry of subsequent moves. So much of the 2022-23 offseason hinged on Judge’s decision, that several teams and other top-tier free agents have been reluctant to act.

For instance, with Judge now remaining in New York, the Giants will likely turn their attention to the shortstop market, where they reportedly have Carlos Correa atop their list of targets. The Twins have been angling to re-sign Correa, but it was always in Correa’s best interest to see if the Giants might miss on Judge and jump into the bidding. If Correa departs Minnesota, the Twins reportedly view Xander Bogaerts as their top fallback option. As with Correa, then, it was in Bogaerts’ best interest to know where Judge landed before he made any sort of decision. All the while, the Red Sox have been hoping to keep Bogaerts, just as the Braves have been hoping to keep Dansby Swanson. But the Cubs, Dodgers and Cardinals have each been tied to the shortstop market, and the Padres have been aggressive in trying to add a marquee player of any shape or size and clearly still have money to spend.

The previously mentioned Rodon, too, likely needed to wait on Judge, given the Yankees’ interest. And it’s feasible that the next tier of free-agent pitchers, including Chris Bassitt and Kodai Senga, prefer to wait until Rodon comes off the board so that they can stand as the two top options and perhaps have increased leverage among rotation-hungry teams.

Viewed through that lens, Judge’s contract is far more than a watershed moment in Yankees franchise history, it’s a catalyst that’ll set off a chain reaction of franchise-altering decisions and megadeals throughout the sport — quite possibly within the next few days or weeks. While elated echoes of “All Rise” ring out through the Bronx, things are just getting started for the rest of the league.

Latest On Padres’ Pursuit Of Aaron Judge

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The Padres were known to have made a spirited run at Aaron Judge between their pursuit of Trea Turner and eventual agreement with Xander Bogaerts. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested this week the Friars were prepared to put forth an offer around $400MM (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote they never formally made such an offer, but it’s clear the San Diego front office had at least contemplated a proposal that would have topped the offers made by both the Giants and Yankees.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post added some clarity on the matter last night, reporting the Padres were preparing an offer to Judge that’d have reached or exceeded $400MM over a whopping 14-year term. However, Heyman further hears Major League Baseball would have been prepared to veto such an arrangement if the sides had agreed upon it. Of course, it proved to be a moot point once Judge decided he wanted to return to the only organization he’s ever known.

MLB vetoing a record-breaking contract would’ve made for a fascinating story. The league’s justification for doing so would’ve been the contract length was an artificial means for the team of working around the competitive balance tax. A team’s luxury tax number is calculated by adding the average annual values of their commitments (plus player benefits and teams’ contributions to the pre-arbitration bonus pool). The luxury tax hit of any contract is evenly dispersed over the course of the deal regardless of the actual payout of the salaries or bonuses.

If we assume the Padres’ prepared offer was for exactly $400MM over 14 years, the deal would’ve come with an AAV around $28.57MM. That’s true no matter if the money were evenly distributed, frontloaded or backloaded. A $400MM guarantee would have handily topped the $365MM Mookie Betts received on his Dodgers extension and the $360MM in new money on the Mike Trout deal, establishing itself as the largest guarantee in MLB history. Distributing it over a 14-year term, however, would put the $28.57MM average yearly salary outside the top 20 in history.

A lower-payroll team may prefer to stretch a deal an extra season or two to lower their annual payment, but MLB’s concern is the Padres’ offer would’ve been done specifically as a means of circumventing the luxury tax. The Padres have paid the CBT in each of the last two years, and they’re certain to do so again in 2023. The Padres entered the week with their CBT number for 2023 hovering right around the $233MM base threshold. San Diego is responsible for a 50% tax on their first $20MM above the threshold and 62% of their next $20MM in overages, with further penalties thereafter.

Offering something like the nine-year, $360MM deal to which Judge actually agreed with the Yankees would’ve come with a $40MM AAV that stuck the Friars with approximately $22.4MM in taxes. Conversely, a 14-year, $400MM offer would’ve come with an additional tax bill around $15.3MM. The lower number on that contract would’ve also come into play if San Diego had made further additions to the payroll, with the Friars starting at a lesser CBT figure when calculating the tax hit associated with their subsequent pickups.

It’s understandable MLB would be wary of a blatant workaround to the luxury tax, which is designed to disincentivize spending among teams with already large payrolls. Yet it’s also somewhat curious to hear they’d have stepped in to veto that kind of proposal to Judge considering some large-market teams have already increasingly taken to a variation of this strategy: longer-term deals at comparatively lesser annual salaries to lower the CBT obligations.

The Padres themselves pivoted to something very similar the day after Judge turned them down. Bogaerts’ $280MM contract was spread over 11 years. The week before that, the Phillies (another team that paid the CBT in 2022 and is likely to do so again next year) stretched to 11 years to land Turner on a $300MM deal. A few years ago, Philadelphia went to 13 years to ink a then-record $330MM free agent deal for Bryce Harper.

Those commitments of more than a decade for superstars are the most obvious examples of stretching contracts longer than most had anticipated, but one could argue it sometimes occurs for the next tier of player as well. Brandon Nimmo was generally expected to land a five or six-year guarantee this offseason. The Mets went to eight years and $162MM, dropping the AAV to just above $20MM but pushing the total guarantee beyond the anticipated range. Two offseasons ago, the Yankees stretched a $90MM guarantee over six seasons (a $15MM annual salary that was below general expectations) for DJ LeMahieu, who was entering his age-32 season at the time. MLB has approved or is expected to approve — Nimmo’s deal has technically not yet been announced — all those contracts. The top free agent starter remaining, Carlos Rodón, is reportedly looking for a seven-plus year deal this offseason. It’s possible large-market teams will view a lengthier term as more desirable, if Rodón correspondingly drops his ask on per-year salary, for this reason.

Clubs have also built in workarounds for luxury tax purposes on contracts for role players via low-cost player options. Player options are treated as guaranteed money for CBT purposes. Tacking on a player option at the end of a contract thus adds an extra year with regards to determining its average annual value. Frontloading a contract and then attaching a lower-salaried player option at the end serves as an effective tax end-around as well. The player receives the bulk of the money on the deal during the guaranteed seasons and generally anticipates declining the player option. Injuries or underperformance could change that calculus, but the understanding of all involved at the time of the deal is that one of the purposes of the option year is to lessen the AAV.  The Mets (Taijuan Walker), Astros (Jake Odorizzi) and Yankees (Justin Wilson) have all handed out some variation of this contract in recent years. In each instance, MLB has accepted that transaction.

Of course, the league isn’t in position to preemptively create fixed rules to govern how much tinkering with the AAV constitutes luxury tax manipulation. MLB is left to evaluate things on a case-by-case basis. A 13-year deal for Harper that runs through his age-38 season was acceptable, as was an 11-year pact that goes through Turner’s age-40 campaign. A 14-year contract to take Judge through his age-44 season would evidently not have passed muster.

The Judge situation at least raises the possibility of MLB intervening on future deals it considers to be circumventions of the tax. That’d have the potential to lead to a battle with the union. The 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement mandated that all contracts be submitted to the Commissioner’s Office for approval. If the league rejected an agreed-upon deal, the MLB Players Association would have the right to file a grievance challenging the ruling. The new CBA has not yet been released in full, but there’s no indication that provision was altered. It won’t end up mattering in this instance with the defending AL MVP headed back to the Bronx, but it’s an interesting subplot to the negotiations for this winter’s top free agent.

Padres Made Strong Offer For Aaron Judge

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3:22pm: Although Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic doesn’t say exactly how far the Padres went in their Judge pursuit, he reports the team did not offer Judge $400MM.

9:25am: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Padres’ offer was $400MM over 10 years.

9:15am: The Aaron Judge bidding was widely believed to be a two-team battle between the Yankees and Giants. In the end, Judge is returning to the Bronx but there was a surprise third team that sat down at the table. Judge reportedly flew to the Winter Meetings in San Diego and met with the Yankees, Giants and Padres, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Padres came in with a “significant” offer, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Judge turned down higher offers elsewhere to return to the Yanks. A report from Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic indicates that Judge met with Padres owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller but “it is believed they never got the chance to make a formal bid.”

The fact that the Padres came close on Judge is noteworthy since this is the second time this week that they have reportedly been willing to put a massive deal in front of a player. After Trea Turner signed with the Phillies for $300MM over 11 years, it was reported that the Friars actually made Turner a higher offer of $342MM. The specifics of that offer aren’t known, so it’s possible that it contained deferrals or options that would change the context, but it was surely a huge number regardless. The details of what they floated to Judge aren’t known either, but since Judge is in agreement with the Yankees for $360MM over nine years, it can be fairly assumed that the Padres were willing to get somewhere in that vicinity.

The Padres have never really been considered heavy hitters when it comes to baseball spending, but they have completely changed that reputation in recent years. Up until recent years, they had only once had an Opening Day payroll in nine-figure territory, which came back in 2015, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They started ramping that up with big free agents deals for Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, a massive extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., and a whole host of trades for stars on other teams. As a result, their Opening Day payrolls jumped to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM in 2022 and they ended up paying the luxury tax in both of those years thanks in part to in-season trades.

This week’s offers to Turner and Judge seem to indicate that they still haven’t reached the ceiling of where they are willing to go. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $210MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $230MM. Signing Turner or Judge would have likely adding something around $30-40MM to each of those numbers. It’s possible they could have then looked to lower them by making trades, but they also still have other needs on the roster to address, such as filling out their starting rotation. Since the club is likely to be a third-time payor in 2023, they will face escalating penalties this time around. Any spending over $233MM will result in a 50% tax, with a 62% tax for going over $253MM and a 95% tax on spending over $273MM.

The question now will be whether the Padres will now dedicate those resources elsewhere or if they viewed Turner and Judge as especially elite talents that were worth stretching their comfort zone. Though many top free agents have flown off the board this week, there are still plenty of them left. With Turner gone, three of the “big four” shortstops remain in Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Signing a shortstop is a bit of a clunky fit on the roster since the Padres already have Ha-Seong Kim and Tatis, but they were willing to do it with Turner, perhaps by moving Tatis to the outfield. Would they pursue the same plan with one of the other shortstops? There’s also the starting rotation to think about, since the Friars lost Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency. While Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are now signed, would the Padres consider a big splash on the last remaining ace in Carlos Rodón? With Judge off the board, the best remaining outfielder in free agency is Brandon Nimmo. Will the Padres turn their attentions to him?

Similar questions will now be asked about the Giants, as they were surely near Judge’s final price as well. Morosi reports that Judge had offers, plural, beyond what he accepted from the Yankees. Since the reporting indicates this came down to a three-team race, that seems to imply that both the Padres and the Giants were willing to go beyond the $360MM figure Judge eventually accepted.

Unlike the Padres, the Giants still have plenty of room before on their ledger before thinking about the luxury tax. Roster Resource has their payroll at $139MM with a CBT number of $156MM. Even if they added about $40MM or so with a Judge signing, they would have been well shy of the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. It’s been reported for months that the Giants were interested in pursuing Judge as well as the marquee shortstops in this offseason. It now seems quite likely that they will pivot from Judge to those shortstops and be connected to them in rumors in the weeks to come. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that this is indeed the plan, with Carlos Correa atop their list, though they will also be looking for another starting pitcher and outfielder, to pair with yesterday’s signing of Mitch Haniger.

No Decision Yet On Aaron Judge

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4:35pm: Giants CEO Larry Baer says there’s currently “nothing to report” on the Judge situation (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post).

4:28pm: Heyman now says the Giants haven’t heard a decision on Judge (on Twitter). Andy Martino of SNY tweeted that as of 4:22pm CST, the Yankees were not informed they were out of the running.

4:26pm: Defending AL MVP Aaron Judge “appears headed” to the Giants, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. San Francisco has reportedly offered Judge a deal in the $360MM range. To this point, however, it appears at least the Yankees still remain in the mix.

Giants’ Offer To Aaron Judge Reportedly “In The Neighborhood” Of $360MM

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The Giants’ offer to reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge is “believed to be [in the] $360MM neighborhood,” reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The number of years on the contract aren’t clear, though recent reports have suggested Judge could push for a nine-year deal. That would put the potential average annual value on San Francisco’s offer in the $40MM ballpark, or perhaps in the $36MM range if they were comfortable extending the offer to a decade in length in order to mitigate some of the AAV and luxury tax concerns.

San Francisco has long been seen as the primary threat to sign Judge away from the Yankees, given their increasing urgency to field a winner, the team’s wide-open payroll outlook and Judge’s fandom of the team as a child growing up in Northern California. Judge has met with both teams in the past week, and outside of some loose connections to the Dodgers, there’s been no concrete reports of other teams involved in the mix.

That hardly means Judge only has two suitors, of course. Coming off a 62-homer, .311/.425/.686 season that netted him his first MVP win, it stands to reason that the majority of teams would at least inquire about the possibility of a deal. However, given the heights to which his market appears to be soaring, most clubs would surely balk at making a competitive offer.

Still, today’s revelation that the Padres offered Trea Turner a $342MM deal that would’ve given him the third-largest guarantee in MLB history — only to be rebuffed in favor of the Phillies — has at least served as evidence that another team is willing to spend at the very top end of the free agent market (albeit on a different player). There’s been no firm link between the Padres and Judge just yet, but with San Diego eyeing the corner outfield market and having displayed a willingness to commit an unprecedented third $300MM+ contract, it’s easy enough to speculate that the Friars could emerge as a viable third entrant in the bidding.

Heyman suggests that even with the Giants’ enormous offer, many in the industry still believe the Yankees to be the favorites. The Yankees, for their part, of course continue to hope that Judge will re-sign and spend his career in the Bronx, although recently extended general manager Brian Cashman told reporters last night that agent Page Odle has not given the Yankees any assurances that they’ll be afforded the opportunity to match or exceed an offer from another team before Judge accepts (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).

The Giants have approximately $133MM in salary committed to next year’s books and are a projected $91MM shy of the first tier of luxury-tax penalization, so an AAV for Judge in the upper $30MMs or even reaching $40MM wouldn’t put them anywhere close to the tax line. Judge did reject the Yankees’ qualifying offer, however, so he’d cost the Giants their second-highest pick in next summer’s draft and also trigger a $500K reduction in their spending capacity on international amateur free agents.

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