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Padres Offered Trea Turner $342MM Deal

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Dec. 6, 12:35pm: The Padres offered Turner a guarantee of $342MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

11:51am: The Padres’ offer to Turner was not only higher than the offer he accepted from Philadelphia but would have made Turner the highest-paid infielder in baseball, topping Francisco Lindor’s $341MM deal with the Mets, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. The exact length of the contract, potential deferrals, etc. aren’t known at this time, but it’s a nevertheless jarring follow-up revelation in the wake of the Phillies’ deal with Turner. Lindor’s contract is currently the third-largest guarantee in Major League history.

While Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported in the aftermath of the Padres’ failed bid that the team is no longer pursuing shortstops, Olney writes that the Padres have at least been in touch with Bogaerts, echoing a similar sentiment reported last night by Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

More broadly, Olney reports that the Padres are “very serious about trying to do all they can” to win the franchise’s first World Series, which raises the question as to whether San Diego might emerge as a legitimate entrant in the bidding for Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon and other top remaining free agents.

Dec. 5: The Phillies made the biggest splash of the offseason to date, agreeing to terms on an 11-year deal with Trea Turner this afternoon. Once finalized, it’ll make the two-time All-Star the 10th player in MLB history to land a contract worth at least $300MM.

Massive as the contract was, it apparently wasn’t the highest offer the shortstop had on the table. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports the Padres made an offer which topped the one Turner accepted from Philadelphia. Specifics of the proposal aren’t clear, but Gelb adds the gap was wide enough San Diego’s offer would’ve translated into more money even after adjusting for California’s higher state income tax rate than Pennsylvania’s.

In the months leading up to Turner’s free agency, there was a fair bit of speculation about whether geography would play a role in his decision. He’s a Florida native who went to college at North Carolina State. His wife Kristen is from New Jersey. Turner reportedly expressed a desire to remain on the East Coast when the Nationals traded him to the Dodgers at the 2021 deadline, and while he downplayed geographic preferences in free agency, there seems to have been some truth behind the rumblings he could prefer heading back across the country. Turner also rejoins longtime Washington teammate Bryce Harper and hitting coach Kevin Long in Philadelphia.

On the one hand, losing out on a star player even after making the highest offer has to be a tough blow for San Diego. Yet it also illustrates the possibility for the franchise to continue pushing chips in as they aggressively seek to augment one of the game’s more talented rosters. One could argue shortstop is more of a luxury buy for the Friars anyhow, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth all on hand as middle infield options. Yet San Diego was willing to put forth one of the largest contracts in league history to try to add another star to the lineup.

San Diego has also been tied to Xander Bogaerts this offseason. That they were the high bidder on Turner doesn’t inherently mean they’ll top the market for Bogaerts instead, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they pivot in that direction now that their primary target is off the board. The Padres have exceeded the luxury tax threshold in each of the past two seasons, and they’d have to do so again to add any of the star free agent shortstops. Roster Resource estimates their CBT ledger around $3MM below the base tax threshold of $233MM, and signing Turner for an average annual value around the $27.3MM he received would’ve pushed them into the second tier of penalization. That’d have involved a 50% tax on the first $20MM — an extra $10MM — and further taxes from that point forward, but it was apparently a bill owner Peter Seidler was content to foot for another star. How or if they reallocate that money, either in a pursuit of Bogaerts or in more directly addressing areas of need like first base and the corner outfield, remains to be seen.

As for the Phils, they now anticipate looking to the pitching market after adding to an already loaded position player core. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets the middle of the rotation and back of the bullpen are target areas for the Phils, who now aren’t far off the base luxury tax tier themselves. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters this evening the club is looking for a setup-type reliever who could mix and match with Seranthony Domínguez, Connor Brogdon and José Alvarado at the end of games (via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer).

While the Phillies certainly aren’t taking their foot off the gas, Dombrowski downplayed the possibility of adding another player who’d rejected a qualifying offer. The Phils forfeited their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s amateur draft plus $1MM in international signing bonus space for Turner, who’d turned down a QO with the Dodgers. They’d lose their third and sixth picks to sign another qualified free agent, and Dombrowski told Coffey and others the team doesn’t have “much appetite” for that kind of pick forfeiture.

Yankees Expected To Meet With Brandon Nimmo

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The Yankees are expected to meet with free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo this week, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Nimmo is attending the Winter Meetings in San Diego in order to have this very type of face-to-face meeting.

Interest in Nimmo isn’t necessarily indicative of any pessimism regarding the Yanks’ ongoing efforts to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman writes that the team is hoping to secure two outfielders this winter, and while Judge and Nimmo represent the two most expensive options on the market, they also represent the top two talents. It’s only natural that losing Judge would theoretically increase New York’s urgency to then lure Nimmo away from their crosstown rivals, but interest in one does not strictly depend on the other’s situation.

Nimmo, who’ll turn 30 near the end of Spring Training, is a sensible target for the Yankees, regardless of Judge’s eventual decision. The Yankees’ seven-year extension for center fielder Aaron Hicks has proven to be a misstep, as Hicks has been oft-injured throughout the life of the deal and has seen his defensive ratings in center decline. The 2022 season actually marked the first time that Judge has played primarily center field, and his shift to center was borne largely out of injuries and poor performance from Hicks. The Yankees could have turned things over to young Estevan Florial for a larger look, but despite a solid showing in Triple-A, the team gave Florial just 35 big league plate appearances, during which time he went 3-for-31 with 13 strikeouts.

Adding Nimmo would give the Yankees a clear-cut everyday option in center, where his defensive ratings have improved considerably over the past two seasons in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (1), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.5) and Outs Above Average (9).The former No. 13 overall draft pick would also give the Yankees a high-OBP, relatively low-strikeout option to bat atop or near the top of the order, and the appeal of taking any left-handed hitter and allowing him to reap the benefits of Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch has obvious allure.

Over the past three seasons, Nimmo has turned in a collective .280/.384/.443 batting line with 32 home runs, 55 doubles, 13 triples, an impressive 12.3% walk rate and a lower-than-average 18.5% strikeout rate. He’s been 38% better than a league-average offensive player in that span, by measure of wRC+, due largely to his elire on-base skills. Of the 342 players to tally at least 500 plate appearances since 2020, only six have reached base at a higher rate than Nimmo: Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Judge, Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt.

Injuries have been the primary knock on Nimmo throughout his career, as he’d only played in 100 games one time entering the 2022 season (though he did appear in 55 of 60 contests during the shortened 2020 campaign). He enjoyed his healthiest season to date in 2022, however, logging a career-high 151 games. The injury history on Nimmo is long, as he’s missed time with knee, foot, neck, hamstring and finger injuries in addition to a partially collapsed lung in 2017. For all those injuries, he’s only been on the 60-day IL once in his career, when he missed 104 days due to a neck injury in 2019.

Checkered health history notwithstanding, it’s an extraordinarily thin market for center fielders this winter, with Nimmo standing as the only true everyday option who’s coming off a strong season (assuming one still considers Judge more of a right fielder). Nimmo has been an excellent offensive player, a solid defender and, in recent seasons, more durable on the whole, appearing in just shy of 78% of possible games dating back to 2020. The general expectation is that he’ll secure a nine-figure contract — perhaps even one that pushes to six years in length.

Pairing Nimmo and Judge could very well tack $60MM or more in luxury-tax obligations onto the Yankees’ 2023 ledger, which currently sits at a projected $222.2MM, per Roster Resource. A Judge/Nimmo pairing would skyrocket the Yankees from a bit shy of the luxury tax all the way to the third tier of penalization and place them within arm’s reach of the newly implemented fourth tier, which kicks in at $293MM this coming season. Of course, that number could be whittled down by finding a taker for Hicks or Josh Donaldson on the trade market (though the Yankees would surely have to pay down some of their remaining commitments), or perhaps by shopping any of the team’s pricier arbitration-eligible players (e.g. Gleyber Torres, Isiah Kiner-Falefa).

Nimmo rejected a $19.65MM qualifying offer from the Mets and would thus cost the Yankees, who paid the luxury tax in 2022, their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft, as well as a $1MM reduction in the size of their 2023 bonus pool for international amateur free agents. In addition to the Yankees, he’s been linked to the Mariners, Blue Jays, Giants, Rays and incumbent Mets.

Giants Looking To Add Two Outfielders

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It’s no secret that the Giants are in the thick of a pursuit for the game’s top free agent outfielder Aaron Judge, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi says the team is looking to add a couple of outfielders this winter (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area).

The Giants’ talks with Judge “are continuing” and the Giants “have really strong interest” in adding the AL MVP says Zaidi. Yet Judge may not be the only new possible new face patrolling the outfield at Oracle Park in 2023, with Zaidi looking to add more than one.

That the Giants would look to add two outfielders this winter is interesting, though perhaps not surprising. As things stand, they have LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson, Austin Slater and Luis Gonzalez in the mix for outfield playing time. Pederson seems likely to spend plenty of time at DH, while Gonzalez has a minor league option remaining and may be better suited as a depth piece, as too might Wade Jr.

The Giants have already been linked with Mitch Haniger, Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger this winter, as well as Judge, although it’s not known if they were looking at the previous trio as contingencies to Judge or in addition to him. Of course, it’s not necessarily as simple as that, and while the Giants have the financial muscle to make plenty of moves, it’d seem more likely they’d go after Nimmo in the event they miss out on Judge, while the likes of Haniger and Bellinger – who will command smaller deals than Nimmo – might be more attractive as options alongside a hypothetical Judge signing.

Outside of that trio of options, the likes of Andrew Benintendi and Michael Brantley could make sense. On the trade market, Bryan Reynolds handed in a trade request to the Pirates over the weekend, and it’s certainly possible the Giants could have interest in bringing back a player they drafted and developed.

While the outfield looks to be an area of focus for the Giants, Zaidi also said they’re looking to add a starting pitcher (via Evan Webeck of Mercury News). They’ve reportedly been interested in bringing back Carlos Rodon, but Zaidi was asked about adding a No. 2 starter behind Logan Webb and said “we’ve kind of got other needs”. That suggests that any starting pitcher addition is more likely to come from the mid-tier of options, with names such as Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon among the options.

Latest On Aaron Judge

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7:32PM: Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke with reporters (including Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand) about Judge, saying that the Yankees had exchanged several offers with the outfielder’s camp, and Cashman had spoken with Judge’s agent earlier today. The club doesn’t have any deadline for Judge to make a decision. The Yankees haven’t gotten any word about whether or not they will get the opportunity to counter or match any final offer Judge might receive from any other team.  In another interview with YES Network’s Meredith Marakovits and Jack Curry (Twitter link), Cashman said the team didn’t have any plans to meet with Judge in person during the Winter Meetings.

3:49PM: There isn’t much doubt that Aaron Judge’s next contract will top the $300MM mark, though the exact distance over $300MM and the length of the deal are still unknown.  Recent reports have suggested that the Yankees offered Judge an eight-year pact worth roughly $300MM, and that a minimum of nine years will be required to sign the AL MVP.

That nine-year demand might already be a reality, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) hears some speculation from industry sources that Judge has a nine-year offer in hand.  The Yankees’ previous offer wasn’t said to be their final bid, so it could be that New York added an extra year to retain their longtime star.  Or, it could be that the Giants (another team known to be in hot pursuit of Judge) have floated a nine-year offer, or perhaps even an unknown team.

On the topic of the ever-popular mystery teams, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that other teams beyond the Yankees and Giants “remain on the periphery” of Judge’s market.  With the numbers this high, of course, only certain big-spending clubs are realistic candidates to sign Judge in the first place, unless a mid-payroll team decided to make an unexpected splurge.

The Red Sox are no strangers to big payrolls, and they have at least checked in with Judge’s representatives, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports.  As intriguing as it would be to see Judge switch sides in the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, the Sox are “not one of the most aggressive teams” in the Judge race, as Cotillo characterizes Boston’s interest more as “due diligence” rather than a true push to sign the slugger.

The Dodgers are the only other team publicly known to have some interest in Judge, though preferably on a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote over the weekend.  A nine-year asking price could put Los Angeles out of the running, but given the Dodgers’ financial resources, they can certainly afford a longer-term deal if they are determined to land Judge.  With Trea Turner now gone to the Phillies and Justin Verlander (a prime Dodgers target) signing with the Mets, however, it is worth wondering if the Dodgers might now more firmly pivot towards Judge.

Aaron Judge “Increasingly Likely” To Land A Nine-Year Contract

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It seems as though teams interested in signing Aaron Judge will have to commit to the slugger for the rest of his 30’s, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that “it appears increasingly likely” that Judge will land nine guaranteed years in his next contract.

It isn’t known if Judge is necessarily prioritizing contract length or a record-setting average annual value, but the reigning MVP might very well have the leverage for both.  Mike Trout’s current deal with the Angels is the benchmark ($36MM) in terms of average annual value for position players, so if Judge was looking to top Trout’s record, it would take nine years and more than $324MM.

That isn’t far off MLBTR’s projection of an eight-year, $332MM deal for Judge, which works out to a $41.5MM AAV.  If Judge is only looking to top Trout’s average salary whatsoever (rather than by a $5.5MM amount), technically a $332MM deal over nine years would do it.  But, it could be that Judge wants to move the goalposts significantly forward for future star free agents.

Going into a ninth guaranteed season (which would be Judge’s age-39 year) might not have much appeal to teams if they’re not getting much or any break on the AAV.  That said, Judge is perhaps a unique enough case that any of his big-market suitors might not mind the extra year — if a team is already willing to pay Judge in the $36MM range for his age-38 season, the ninth year might be seen as the cost of doing business.

If a ninth guaranteed season is now the going rate to sign Judge, it could put the Dodgers out of the running. “The Dodgers are believed to want Judge only on a short-term, high-dollar deal,” Rosenthal writes, which matches the club’s general strategy in pursuing any free agents.  This isn’t to say that L.A. doesn’t abandon that strategy in certain circumstances, as it was just last winter that Freddie Freeman (heading into his age-32 season) was inked a six-year, $162MM deal.  But, with Judge in position to at least double Freeman’s total salary, he might not be a fit for a Dodger team that could devote its resources towards acquiring other star players.

The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are the teams publicly linked to Judge’s market, and Rosenthal reports that some other teams have at least checked in on Judge, though it isn’t known if any of these mystery suitors are making a serious push.  Last week, reports suggested that New York had made Judge an offer in the range of eight years and $300MM, and the Yankees weren’t viewing that as a final offer.  Adding a ninth guaranteed season at the same AAV would result in a nine-year, $337.5MM offer.

Latest On Yankees’ Offer To Aaron Judge

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The Yankees wasted little time in making a new offer to Aaron Judge following the commencement of the offseason, with general manager Brian Cashman revealing two weeks ago that the team had made an updated offer to the reigning American League MVP. Judge has since met with the Giants, who were also reported to be preparing an offer. The Dodgers are also a reported suitor. Details surrounding Judge’s free agency have been sparse thus far, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Yankees’ most recent offer was “in the neighborhood of eight years and $300 million.” That’s not a final offer, and the Yankees could increase their numbers if the market necessitates, per the report.

It’s still a ballpark figure, but that general range could potentially give Judge the largest annual value ever secured by a position player. Mike Trout, who inked a 10-year, $360MM extension on top of a standing two-year, $66.5MM commitment with the Angels — currently holds that distinction at $36MM. (Max Scherzer’s $43.3MM AAV is the top mark overall.) Establishing a new AAV record among position players would surely be of interest to Judge, and if the Yankees are truly already in the $300MM ballpark, he’d at least be within striking distance of Bryce Harper’s record for the largest free-agent contract in history ($330MM).

As far as the timing of a potential deal for Judge, it seems as though one could come together in relatively quick fashion. Passan indicates that there’s an expectation a deal could be completed by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, which take place in San Diego from Dec. 4-7. That meshes with previous reporting from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who made similar suggestions on MLB Network when discussing Judge’s meeting with the Giants. SNY’s Andy Martino, meanwhile, writes that it would “be a mild surprise” if Judge doesn’t come away from next week’s meetings with an agreement in hand.

Wherever the present numbers stand, it’s long been clear that Judge’s bold bet on himself this past spring has paid off. Judge declined the Yankees’ best extension offer prior to the season, after which Cashman took the virtually unprecedented step of announcing the terms of the offer: seven years and $213.5MM. That contract would’ve begun with the 2023 season, so Judge appears to have already secured an extra year and upwards of $80-90MM in additional guarantees.

Roster Resource currently projects the Yankees at a bit more than $222MM in luxury obligations. An AAV in the $36-37MM range would bump that number to $258-259MM, setting the stage for a second consecutive season of paying CBT penalties.

As a second-time offender, the Yankees would owe a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the first threshold of $233MM, a 42% tax on the next $20MM spent, a 75% tax on the next $20MM and a 90% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Judge alone would put them into the second tier and come with a penalty of around $8-9MM, and any subsequent moves would be taxed heavily. The Yankees could change that calculus by finding a taker for Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks or a member (or members) of their arbitration class, but the team knows full well that the cost of an improved offer to Judge stretches well beyond the bottom-line numbers on the contract itself.

That improved offer, of course, comes on the heels of a historic season that saw Judge seamlessly deal with not only the pressure of the expectations set by rejecting more than $200MM but also the pressure of chasing down Roger Maris’ longstanding mark of 61 home runs. Judge indeed set a new American League and Yankee standard when he belted his 62nd round-tripper of the season on Oct. 4. He finished off his MVP-winning campaign with a stunning .311/.425/.686 batting line — good for a 207 wRC+ that stands as the best offensive season in recent history. Barry Bonds was the last player to match or exceed that level, and prior to him, no qualified hitter had done so since Ted Williams in 1957. MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $332MM contract for Judge when ranking him atop our annual Top 50 free agent list.

The Opener: Harper, Judge, 2023-24 Free Agents

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Turkeys are in the oven but what’s simmering on the hot stove?

1. Bryce Harper Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

After playing most of 2022 with a torn UCL, Bryce Harper finally went under the knife yesterday. It wasn’t known what type of surgery he would require until the procedure began, but he ultimately required a full ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery. The Phillies provided this update: “The prognosis is for Bryce to be returning as the designated hitter by the All-Star break of 2023 with a possible return to play right field towards the end of the regular season.” Not having Harper in the lineup for the first half of the season is certainly a blow to the club, but it also creates opportunities by opening up the DH spot. That could mean less time in the outfield for guys like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, but there are other plans being considered. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, that one option would be Alec Bohm moving over to first base and Rhys Hoskins taking the DH spot. Third base would then go to Edmundo Sosa, with the club presumably adding a shortstop. The Phils have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time and Harper’s lengthy absence could increase their urgency to pursue Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

2.  Aaron Judge Meets With Giants

As expected, Aaron Judge met with the Giants this week. According to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, this meeting included a chat with NBA superstar Steph Curry. The Giants are expected to make an offer soon and it will be interesting to see what form it takes. The top free agents usually reach free agency in the late 20s but Judge is a little older, turning 31 in April. As part of our post on the top 50 free agents, MLBTR predicted Judge to get an eight-year deal, which would take him into his age-38 season. With multiple teams at the table, would Judge try to get a ninth year with a lower annual salary or would he prefer to focus on the AAV? Also, who else will he meet with? It’s been reported that the Dodgers are interested in signing Judge to take over right field and then moving Mookie Betts to second base. Is Judge planning to take a trip down the Pacific Coast Highway after the holidays?

3. 2023-24 Free Agents

The 2022-23 offseason is underway, but if you’re already looking ahead to next winter, MLBTR has you covered. Later today, we will publish a list of players currently slated to reach the open market one year from now. This list will be fluid since some players will sign extensions, while current free agents will agree to one-year deals or longer pacts with options or opt-outs opportunities. The post will be updated over time to reflect those changes. There are some very intriguing names on the list, but the most exciting is a certain two-way player who’s currently on the Angels.

Aaron Judge Meets With Giants

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November 23: Jon Morosi of MLB Network says that the meeting went well and that the Giants are expected to make an offer to Judge soon.

November 21: The Giants are planning to sit down with the market’s top free agent this week, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets they’re expected to meet with Aaron Judge. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports the parties have a sit-down scheduled for tomorrow (on Twitter).

It’s notable but entirely unsurprising to see the Giants in the market for Judge. They’ve long been speculated as perhaps the top threat to the Yankees for the reigning AL MVP’s services. That’s both a reflection of the slugger’s ties to Northern California and, more importantly, to the abundance of financial breathing room at the Giants’ disposal. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this afternoon, the Giants are as well-positioned as any team to make a major splash on the open market.

San Francisco’s 2023 payroll commitments are presently estimated around $133MM, per Roster Resource. They’ve opened seasons with player spending upwards of $200MM in previous seasons, and while those heights were reached before the pandemic, they’re still well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure. The long-term books are almost bare, with just over $20MM in guaranteed commitments for 2024. By 2025, the club has only a $3.5MM player option for Wilmer Flores on the ledger. In that context, it’s easy to understand president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi declaring at the GM Meetings earlier this month that “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.”

That includes Judge, who’s expected to land the largest deal of the offseason. He set the AL home run record with 62 home runs and hit .311/.425/.686 through 157 games. It’d have been nearly impossible to draw up a better platform season, and while Judge certainly can’t be expected to replicate that kind of production, he’s now a career .284/.394/.583 hitter in over 3000 MLB plate appearances. Few players are more imposing offensive forces. Judge also typically rates as an above-average defensive right fielder and played reasonably well over 632 2/3 innings of center field work for the Yankees this past season. He’d probably be a better fit for the corner in spacious Oracle Park, but his play in right field would upgrade an outfield defense that was among the league’s worst this year.

MLBTR predicts Judge to land an eight-year deal worth $332MM; the $41.5MM average annual value would rank second all-time, while it’d be the largest overall guarantee for a free agent in history. While the Yankees and Giants are generally perceived as the favorites in the bidding, he’s also been linked to the Dodgers. Feinsand first reported last month that L.A. was considering the possibility of jumping into the Judge market while contemplating kicking Mookie Betts into second base. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated the Dodgers’ interest last week.

Of course, there are myriad possibilities for the Giants (and other big-spending teams) beyond Judge. San Francisco has also been connected to the top free agent shortstops available — Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts — as well as center fielder Brandon Nimmo. San Francisco also has needs in the bullpen and could look to make a splash at the top of the rotation. There are a number of avenues for Zaidi and his front office to explore, starting at the very top of free agency.

MLB Finds No Collusion Between Yankees, Mets Regarding Aaron Judge’s Free Agency

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Major League Baseball has determined there was no agreement between the Mets and Yankees to suppress the market for top free agent Aaron Judge, reports Sean Gregory of TIME. The league had opened an investigation into the two teams last week after the MLB Players Association had raised some concerns about an article published by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month.

Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.

As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”

To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.

The league requested communications between Cohen and Steinbrenner last week to determine if the owners formulated any kind of agreement for the Mets not to pursue Judge as a free agent, which would have been a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. Mike Puma of the New York Post writes the league found nothing in those communications to support a finding of collusion.

That doesn’t necessarily bring the matter to a close, as the MLBPA still has the right to file a grievance on Judge’s behalf. If it chooses to do so, the case would go in front of an independent arbitrator. The union would have to demonstrate both that illicit communications between the Mets and Yankees did occur and that Judge’s market was impacted by those talks. The players union declined comment to both TIME and the New York Post as to whether it planned to dispute the league’s determination.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic also wrote last week the union could take issue with unrelated comments made by Astros owner Jim Crane to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com regarding the asking price of free agent ace Justin Verlander. Whether it plans to pursue a grievance in that matter also remains unclear, but the league was not expected to open an investigation into Crane’s statements.

Free Agent Notes: Judge, White Sox, Strahm

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There is an increasing belief that the Dodgers will make a run at AL MVP winner Aaron Judge, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman notes that the Dodgers have freed up $100MM, with Cody Bellinger, Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, David Price, Trea Turner, and Justin Turner no longer on the roster, and that the Dodgers have an outfield gap to fill. Justin Terranova of the New York Post adds that the Dodgers were previously viewed as being on the outskirts of the Aaron Judge sweepstakes, with the Giants posing the biggest threat in his return to the Bronx. The Yankees have already sent the superstar’s camp a new offer, but Terranova notes that the Giants have “indicated that they were willing to break the bank for Judge’s services.”

There has been speculation that Judge, who grew up outside of San Francisco, might be inclined to play closer to home, with Randy Miller of NJ.com noting that the star spends “parts of his offseasons in Linden” but resides in Tampa. For his part, Judge has played coy when asked about his free agency, telling reporters after he won the AL MVP that he is “looking forward to getting the free-agent process going,” but noting that “a lot of stuff doesn’t kick in until the winter meetings in December,” per Terranova.

Elsewhere in the League:

  • White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz has indicated that his team “need[s] another starter” with Johnny Cueto entering free agency, according to Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. Katz adds that Chicago has discussed bringing back Cueto, and it was previously reported that Cueto is open to a return to the team. Inked to a minor league contract in early April, Cueto joined Chicago in late May and posted one of his strongest seasons over the past five years. The 36-year-old worked to a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 innings, albeit with a career-low 15.7% strikeout rate and a strong 5.1% walk rate. As noted in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Starters article, Cueto’s age, lack of missed bats, and 91 MPH fastball likely won’t earn him a huge deal, but he will almost surely earn a guaranteed rotation spot entering the 2023 season.
  • On the heels of a successful season in Boston, Matt Strahm is in search of an opportunity to start on the free agent market, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. However, Speier notes the seven-year veteran has only discussed bullpen opportunities so far this offseason. Strahm last started during the 2019 season, before transitioning to a bullpen role with the Padres in July of that season. Following a slow recovery from a 2020 patellar tendon surgery on his right knee, he was DFA’d after the 2021 season and subsequently picked up by the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. Despite being limited to only 27 1/3 innings across the 2020-2021 seasons, Strahm played an integral role in Boston’s pen in 2022, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings and earning four saves. Importantly, after two years of sub-20% strikeout rates, Strahm punched out an above-average 26.9% of opposing batters while walking a solid 8.8%.
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