Odds & Ends: A-Rod, Beltre, Athletics, Rockies
Links for Tuesday, as Tigers reliever Casey Fien returns to the Majors after spending the offseason in waiver wire hell…
- The home run milestone incentives in Alex Rodriguez's contract were the brainchild of Warren Buffett, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. The milestones start with home run #660; A-Rod currently has 594.
- WEEI's Alex Speier has the interesting story of the Dodgers signing Adrian Beltre in 1994 at age 15 by way of falsified documents, including the player's recollection of the situation. I swapped emails with Fred Claire, who was Dodgers GM at the time. Claire takes responsibility for the incident, but "had no awareness that Beltre's birth date had been altered in any way, shape or form" and "would never have approved such an act."
- Joe Stiglich of the Contra Costa Times talked with scouts about the Athletics' trade chips. At least one scout prefers Ben Sheets to Kevin Millwood.
- Dave Cameron's presciption for the Rockies in this FanGraphs article: move Brad Hawpe to first base and acquire Dan Uggla. Another good read from Cameron is his takedown of the theory that Russell Branyan will bring protection for other Mariners hitters. Speaking of Branyan, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says Seattle's acquisition "stunned" rival executives.
- Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues looks at Octavio Dotel as a potential Yankees trade target, and prefers they do not pursue a reunion.
- Howard Megdal of SNY is "reluctant to deal any significant part of the Mets' future for a rental of Cliff Lee." Megdal feels that the team's window to win extends beyond 2010.
Rosenthal On Yankees, Oswalt, White Sox, Beltre
The Yankees are not actively looking for a utility infielder, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal names Willie Bloomquist, John McDonald and Jayson Nix as options the Yanks could consider should they decide that they want more experience than Kevin Russo and Ramiro Pena can offer. Here are the rest of Rosenthal's rumors:
- Adrian Beltre will almost certainly reject his player option after the season and re-enter free agency. He has been one of the game's best players this year, rating characteristically well on defense (according to UZR) and hitting .336/.371/.528.
- The Mariners won't necessarily get a first round pick in next year's draft if they hold onto Cliff Lee. First of all, a losing team could sign Lee (the first 15 picks are protected). Secondly, a team could sign Lee and a free agent who ranks higher under the Elias system. That would mean the Mariners get a supplementary rounder and a second rounder.
- If the Rangers are sold before the winter, they could be a potential landing spot for Carl Crawford, one executive suggested.
- Rosenthal hears that Astros owner Drayton McLane is not against the idea of trading Roy Oswalt to Texas, though the Rangers' ability to take on payroll and the pitcher's no-trade clause could prevent a deal from going through.
- The Marlins inquired on Matt Thornton back when the White Sox were sellers. Now, the White Sox would not consider dealing the left-hander.
- If White Sox GM Kenny Williams becomes a buyer, he may pursue a left-handed bat.
- The Mariners want major league or major league-ready hitters for Cliff Lee, but the Dodgers' best prospects are a few years away from the majors.
- The Rockies are interested in Ty Wigginton, according to Rosenthal's colleague, Tracy Ringolsby.
- The Rays will look for impact players at the trade deadline.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Adrian Beltre
Adrian Beltre signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox in January, turning down three-year, $24MM offers from the Phillies and Athletics. The Scott Boras client gambled that he'd bounce back in 2010 and exceed a two-year, $14MM deal after the season. So far, it appears that Beltre was smart to bet on his own talent.
Beltre was expected to provide strong defense and a useful bat, perhaps a .330 OBP with 25 home runs. Instead he's got a .330/.362/.509 line in 232 plate appearances. He's tied for ninth in the AL with 40 RBIs; reaching 100 for the second time in his career won't hurt his earning potential.
Beltre's contract includes a 2011 player option worth $5MM, which will increase to $10MM with 640 plate appearances this year. He's currently on pace for 637, so it'll be tight. The $10MM option was never terribly relevant, though – if Beltre played enough to reach 640 PAs, he'd probably have a season worthy of more than a one-year, $10MM commitment. Beltre is highly likely to decline his player option whether it's $5MM or $10MM.
I would not be surprised to see Beltre seek a four-year deal in the $50MM range at the outset of the offseason. He'll be competing mainly with Jorge Cantu, if Aramis Ramirez's rough start compels him to exercise a $14.6MM player option. Back in March, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein noted the possibility of signing Beltre long-term if he proves a good fit. At the least we'll see an arbitration offer, as the third baseman currently profiles as a Type B free agent.
Gammons On Ellsbury, Varitek, Beltre
Peter Gammons made his regular appearance on WEEI's The Big Show on Friday afternoon to chat about the Red Sox. Nick Bove has the full transcript, but here are the highlights…
- Gammons notes that Jacoby Ellsbury's rib injuries are coming at a bad time, because he's in line for his first arbitration payday after the season. "He’s got Scott Boras in his ear, telling him what he’s going to make. If he were jaking it, that makes no sense. It’s just the opposite, in fact. This is really important for him to play." Ellsbury has played in just three of the team's last 44 games, and there's no timetable for his return.
- Boras was on board with Ellsbury's move to left field because he wouldn't have to run as much, which would help boost his offensive production and improve his arbitration case. He cited Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson as examples.
- Gammons believes Jason Varitek figured out that he could extend his career by three or four years by accepting a part-time role and playing two or three times a week.
- Adrian Beltre is hitting .342/.371/.511, and Gammons says that Boras played the market perfectly by getting him a one year deal that will allow him to go back out on the market with improved stock after the season.
Cafardo On Ortiz, Iannetta, Atkins, Lowell
The key to the Rays' success so far has been their pitching staff, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, who praises Tampa Bay for playing so well despite a few slumping bats. Cafardo says that it may be hard for the club to add another piece or two before the trade deadline, since their budget is already maxed out. However, Cafardo acknowledges that with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena facing free agency, the Rays may go all-out this year and stretch their budget a little in hopes of winning a championship. Here are some of Cafardo's other notes:
- After this season, David Ortiz is probably "done in Boston unless he takes a massive pay cut." Ortiz might have trouble catching on anywhere next year, since there's virtually no market for one-dimensional players, and he may not be willing to accept a role similar to Jason Giambi's in Colorado.
- If Ortiz and Victor Martinez continue to hit, the Red Sox are very unlikely to pursue Chris Iannetta.
- One of the winter's most disappointing new additions has been Garrett Atkins, who is homerless and sports a .221/.261/.283 slash line in 119 plate appearances. The Orioles will have to consider releasing him if he doesn't turn things around.
- The Rangers are looking for a starting pitcher and a productive right-handed bat. A Rangers official tells Cafardo that he'd still love to see Mike Lowell in Texas.
- Cafardo thinks that if the Red Sox fall out of playoff contention and become sellers, they could replenish their farm system, acquiring multiple players for Martinez, Lowell, Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, and Jeremy Hermida. I'm less optimistic than Cafardo about the caliber of talent the Sox could land for most of those guys.
Red Sox Roundup: Kotchman, Epstein, McDonald
With Red Sox Nation in full panic mode, a number of writers are surveying the wreckage in a 4-9 start that represents, to provide some clarity, just eight percent of the season.
- WEEI.com's Alex Speier discusses whether the Sox would have been better off keeping Casey Kotchman than signing Adrian Beltre, noting that so far, Kotchman has notched a .963 OPS to Beltre's .668 OPS. However, Speier does hasten to add how early in the season it is. Before a recent 4-for-7 streak, Kotchman's OPS was just .717.
- Theo Epstein has no excuses for the start, saying, "It's just what it is. It's been bad baseball. We haven't played well. There are no excuses for how we've played."
- With the addition of Darnell McDonald for the injured Jacoby Ellsbury, however, moves will be trickier. McDonald puts the Red Sox 40-man roster at 40.
- And things may get worse before they get better: Mike Cameron, also on the DL with an abdominal strain, didn't rule out surgery to correct the problem.
- FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi piles on, saying that the White Sox have "a better chance at a rapid turnaround" than the Red Sox do.
- In a minor league move, the Red Sox traded Andrew Dobies, a Double-A pitcher, to the White Sox for a player to be named later or cash.
Execs Name Best, Worst Moves Of The Offseason
Recently MLBTR spoke to several MLB executives to gather their nominations for the best and worst moves of the offseason.
Free agent signings that received mention for the best moves: Felipe Lopez, Adrian Beltre, Adam LaRoche, Chone Figgins, Hideki Matsui, and Aroldis Chapman. Said one exec on Chapman: "He might truly live up to the hype." It's hard not to praise the Cards for getting Lopez on a one-year, $1MM deal.
Three trades came up as choices for the best moves of the offseason: the Mariners' acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Royals' trade of Mark Teahen, and the Rangers' trade of Kevin Millwood. One exec noted that the Mariners "didn't trade anyone that can hurt them in the next couple of years" for Lee, while another believed that "trading Lee and Kyle Drabek in the Roy Halladay deal will hurt [the Phillies] in the long run." The Royals received props for "getting some value for Teahen," while the Rangers' increased payroll flexibility from the Millwood deal was noted.
Nominated for the worst moves: free agent deals for Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Brandon Lyon, Jason Kendall, Aubrey Huff, Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, and Garrett Atkins. All the execs polled mentioned Holliday's seven year, $120MM deal when choosing their worst deals of the winter. Said one: "The fear that he would sign a one-year deal elsewhere and take his chances a year from now — that just doesn't make sense to me."
Aside from Kendall and Huff, there was a vibe of "like the player, hate the contract" with the panned free agent signings. One exec felt the Royals downgraded behind the plate with Kendall. Huff was nominated as a small-scale misstep, in that the exec felt that "Hank Blalock is better and he couldn't get half that salary on a non-roster deal."
Red Sox Rumors: Beckett, Beltre
John Lackey's five-year $82.5MM deal could set the market for Josh Beckett as he discusses an extension with the Red Sox, but Jon Heyman of SI.com hears that Beckett is looking for a "slightly longer term" deal. Even though Beckett would like six years, there's optimism that the two sides will reach a deal.
Bowden Talks To Epstein, Zduriencik, Reagins, Wren
Jim Bowden's weekly GM's Corner video pieces for FOX Sports make for good viewing. This week he talked to Theo Epstein, Jack Zduriencik, Tony Reagins, and Frank Wren. A few hot stove highlights:
- Epstein admitted that new third baseman Adrian Beltre would "have to have a big year" to achieve Type A status after the season, but finds at least Type B likely. Epstein noted that there's the possibility of signing Beltre long-term if he proves to be a good fit.
- Zduriencik told Bowden he was aggressive in pursuing Chone Figgins, and got the deal done within 48 hours. Also, Zduriencik mentioned that the Brewers were one pick away from taking Casey Kotchman in the first round in 2001; they instead took Mike Jones at #12 overall. I wonder if the Brewers still would've drafted Prince Fielder in '02 if they had Kotchman.
- Reagins is "not really concerned" about having a limited number of lefties in the bullpen, after the Halos lost Darren Oliver to the Rangers this offseason.
- Wren believes the Braves have "improved quite a bit" offensively, and talked up Nate McLouth, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, Melky Cabrera, and Troy Glaus.
Cafardo On Washburn, Garland, Marlins
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke to Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan who talked about free agent pickups Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre. Let's take a look at his news and notes from around the majors:
- Free agent pitcher Jarrod Washburn could have a suitor in the Milwaukee Brewers. Back in November the lefty said that the Brewers were one of the teams "on his radar". Cafardo also writes that none of the free agent pitchers on the market should expect a commitment similar to Randy Wolf's three-year, $30MM deal.
- Meanwhile, Jon Garland could be a fit for the Giants, who are still looking to add a starter, although we heard otherwise on Friday this week. Recently we heard that the Dodgers contacted his agent, though they still appear to be hamstrung by their financial situation.
- Cafardo believes that Scott Boras played a role in MLB and the players' union coming down on the Marlins' thin payroll. Boras told him during the general managers' meetings in November that the Marlins were pocketing their revenue-sharing and central-fund sourcing money. Meanwhile, Cafardo wonders aloud how the Pirates have avoided similar scrutiny from the union and MLB.