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AJ Smith-Shawver

NL East Notes: Harper, Braves, Mets

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One of the biggest questions facing the Phillies this offseason focuses on what position superstar slugger Bryce Harper will play in 2024. The 2024 campaign figures to be Harper’s first full campaign in the field since 2021, as Harper battled a partially torn UCL in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. That limited Harper to playing DH primarily in both 2022 and 2023, though Harper was able to move to first base late in the 2023 season, filling a hole left by Rhys Hoskins’s ACL injury during spring training. A decision on Harper’s position next year is expected to come in the near future, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that Harper’s preferred position will be taken into consideration when building the team’s 2024 roster.

With Harper at first base in recent months, the Phillies have been able to use Kyle Schwarber at DH while playing both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in the outfield to improve the club’s outfield defense. If Harper were to return to his native right field in 2024, that would seemingly leave Nick Castellanos to move over to left field, with Marsh and Rojas platooning in center. Speculatively speaking, that could open the door for the club to resign Hoskins in free agency or look into other potential first base bats like Brandon Belt and Jeimer Candelario. On the other hand, if Harper plays first base primarily next season, the club could look to add an additional outfielder such as Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to deepen their outfield group.

More from around the NL East…

  • David O’Brien of The Athletic recently discussed the future of the Braves rotation, which in part hinges upon the decisions made regarding veteran righty Charlie Morton. It’s as of yet unclear if the 40-year-old hurler intends to continue playing in 2024, and separately it’s an open question whether or not the Braves will exercise a $20MM club option for his services in 2024 or allow him to hit the open market. With Kyle Wright out of commission until 2025 due to shoulder surgery, parting ways with Morton would leave only Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Bryce Elder locked into rotation spots headed into the 2024 season. O’Brien makes it clear that righty AJ Smith-Shawver is part of the club’s future plans in some capacity, noting the Braves informed teams that Smith-Shawver was “all but untouchable.” Still, even if the club plans to utilizie Elder and Smith-Shawver at the back of the rotation in 2024, they would likely need to replace Morton externally with a veteran arm rather than relying on youngsters like Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Jared Shuster, all of whom may be better suited for depth roles.
  • SNY’s Danny Abriano recently discussed the options the Mets have at their disposal at third base for the 2024 season. While the third base market features interesting names such as Candelario and top option Matt Chapman, Abriano suggests that the club should stick to its internal options at the hot corner for the 2024 campaign. Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio would appear to be the club’s top contenders for the everyday third base job internally. Baty struggled badly with a .212/.275/.323 slash line in 389 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his pedigree as a consensus top-30 prospect and his phenomenal minor league numbers suggest the 23-year-old could take the next step in 2024. Mauricio, meanwhile, also struggled at the plate (.248/.296/.347 in 108 plate appearances) and is widely regarded as having a lower offensive ceiling than Baty, but brings quality defense and baserunning to the table when compared to Baty’s defensive miscues at the position. Another factor for the Mets could be top infield prospect Luisangel Acuna, who Abriano suggests will eventually take over second base, which could free up Jeff McNeil to move to third if Baty and Mauricio both struggle in the early parts of the 2024 season.

Braves Designate Charlie Culberson For Assignment

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The Braves made a series of roster moves this morning, per a club announcement. The club designated infielder Charlie Culberson for assignment to create room on the 40-man and active rosters for newly-acquired infielder Nicky Lopez. Meanwhile, left-hander A.J. Minter was activated from the 15-day injured list. Minter claimed a roster spot that was vacated by right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver when he was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett last night.

Despite the fact that Culberson was selected to the Major League roster on June 30, he appeared in only one game with the Braves and tallied a single plate appearance on July 16, during which he delivered a base hit. He’s otherwise been on-hand as bench depth but hasn’t been plugged into a game. This is the second time this season Atlanta has designated the veteran utilityman for assignment; he cleared waivers, elected free agency and quickly re-signed on a new minor league deal last time around.

Culberson, 34, has also appeared in 24 Triple-A games this season, batting .204/.234/.255 through 107 trips to the plate. It hasn’t been a strong year on the whole, but he’s beloved in the Braves organization, from the clubhouse to the fanbase, for his prior stints there in 2018-20. During that three-year period, Culberson delivered roughly league-average offense on the whole and appeared at every position other than catcher and center field. His penchant for clutch hits and walk-offs endeared him to Braves fans during that time, and Culberson enjoyed a career-best season with Atlanta in 2018 when he hit .270/.326/.466 with a dozen homers in 322 plate appearances.

The Braves will have until tomorrow evening’s trade deadline to trade Culberson if they choose, but it seems likelier that they’ll hope to pass him through outright waivers. He’d have the ability to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency once again, but given how quickly he re-upped with the Braves on a new minor league deal last time around, the same sequence could play out following his second DFA of the season.

Braves Select AJ Smith-Shawver, Designate Lucas Luetge

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The Braves announced that they have selected the contract of pitching prospect AJ Smith-Shawver and designated left-hander Lucas Luetge for assignment in a corresponding move.

Atlanta has shown in recent years that it the most aggressive club in the league when it comes to promoting prospects to the majors and this continues that trend. Smith-Shawver is only 20 years old and was just drafted in 2021, getting selected in the seventh round. He made his professional debut with four Complex League appearances that year and then jumped onto Baseball America’s list of the top 30 prospect in the organization, getting the #18 spot going into 2022.

He would get a lengthier exposure in 2022, making 17 starts in Single-A, posting a 5.11 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. While that earned run figure wasn’t especially impressive, there was some bad luck in there. His .338 batting average on balls in play and 59.5% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of normal, leading to a 3.53 FIP that was much kinder. He jumped to #1 on BA’s list of top prospects in the system, as they highlighted his four-seam fastball, which averaged 95 mph and had good movement. They also praised his slider and mentioned a work-in-progress changeup.

This year, he began the year in High-A but the club has shown little hesitation about bumping him up the ladder. He made just three starts at that level before getting bumped to Double-A for two and then Triple-A for two more. In those seven starts, he has a combined 1.09 ERA over 33 innings, striking out 35.2% of batters while walking 9.4%. He’s getting good luck this time around, with his BABIP down to .257 on the year and his strand rate up to 91.2%. However, his 2.43 FIP still points to excellent work even when taking that into account.

That performance this year has pushed up his prospect stock. Though he wasn’t really considered a top 100 guy coming into the year, he’s now up to #98 at Baseball America and JJ Cooper of BA tweets that he will likely be moving up even higher in their next update. He didn’t open the year in the top 100 at FanGraphs either but it now up to #86 there. Now he’ll get to make his big league debut at a very young age and with a very quick blast through the minors.

As mentioned, this is becoming something of a playbook for the organization. Last year, they promoted prospects like Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom, both of whom were in their age-21 seasons. Going further back, players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Michael Soroka all got to the show in the respective age-20 campaigns. Austin Riley and Spencer Strider each got to debut in their age-22 seasons. Now Smith-Shawver will be the latest to be rocketed up to the top level.

Although he is a starter, Smith-Shawver will be used out of the bullpen initially, reports David O’Brien of The Athletic. Though the club has one of the better records in the league at 32-22, the bullpen is an area on the roster that looks a little shaky. The club’s relievers have a collective 4.13 ERA on the year, which places them 17th out of the 30 clubs in the league. Smith-Shawver will try to give them a boost back there as he gets acquainted with the majors.

It’s possible he could join the rotation down the road, as there’s some uncertainty there as well. With Max Fried and Kyle Wright both on the injured list and not expected to return anytime soon, that leaves Atlanta with Strider, Soroka, Charlie Morton, Bryce Elder, and Jared Shuster. Soroka has hardly pitched in the past three years due to various injuries, including twice tearing his Achilles, and it’s unknown how much of a workload he can be expected to take on this year. Shuster, meanwhile, is a rookie with a 5.33 ERA so far this year. There may come a time when Smith-Shawver appears to be a viable option, but he may not have too much leash himself after throwing just 68 2/3 innings last year.

As for Luetge, he spent the past couple of seasons as an effective lefty reliever for the Yankees. He came over to Atlanta in an offseason deal but has struggled mightily so far this year. He has a 10.24 ERA on the season, only making nine appearances around a trip to the injured list due to biceps inflammation. His .406 BABIP and 57.3% strand rate have pushed that up but his 6.08 FIP and 4.53 SIERA still aren’t ideal.

The club will now have one week to trade Luetge or pass him through waivers. Despite his rough stretch here in 2023, he’ll likely garner interest based on his previous work. He tossed 129 2/3 innings with the Yanks over 2021 and 2022 with a combined 2.71 ERA, striking out 25% of opponents while walking only 5.8%. He’s making a salary of $1.55MM this year and could be retained for another year via arbitration. If he clears waivers, he could reject an outright assignment by virtue of having a previous career outright. But doing so and electing free agency would mean forfeiting his remaining salary, since he is shy of the five-year service mark.

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