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Poll: Still-Unemployed Top Ten Free Agents

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Spring training has begun, and while recent announcements by the Cubs and Padres of nine-figure deals (with Yu Darvish and Eric Hosmer, respectively) have quieted cries of collusion from the player’s union, the unemployment level of top free agents remains historic. Specifically, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents (excluding Masahiro Tanaka, who never actually reached free agency) are still unsigned. The recent mega-contracts have overshadowed the urgency of the situation for these free agents, as they’ve got barely more than a month left to find jobs before Opening Day. As each day passes, it becomes more difficult to simply assume that Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will all agree to terms before that time comes.

The market on the above players isn’t totally cold as of now. On the contrary, there seems to be some buzz surrounding many of them. Here’s what we know at the moment…

Arrieta and his representatives were said to be “having dialogue” as recently as four days ago, and it’s believed that there’s real interest being explored. At the same time, though, there appears to be a gap between the two sides’ bargaining positions. There have also been multiple recent reports that the Phillies don’t want to lock themselves into a long-term deal to improve their rotation. While Darvish fell short of expectations with a $126MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says Boras is attempting to convince front offices that Arrieta compares more favorably to David Price, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. The oft-vehement Boras apparently sees Darvish as an “analytics phenom”, but describes analytics as a “management excuse to keep salaries down.” He also says that Arrieta beats Darvish in something he calls “prestige” value. Heyman lists seven teams as potential landing spots for Arrieta, believing he’s most likely to land with the Nationals, Brewers or Phillies.

Moustakas seems to have little traction with any MLB club at this point. The Braves have engaged his camp, but there seems to be no evidence that a deal is likely to come together. The White Sox have also been loosely linked to him. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll return to Kansas City at this point, as the Royals would apparently rather give Cheslor Cuthbert a shot at third base as they begin to rebuild. Moose reportedly has plenty of one-year offers on the table, but it’s not clear whether he’ll receive any significant multi-year offers at this point in the offseason.

Lynn hasn’t been forced to dramatically lower his asking price, and last we heard, the Twins preferred him to the other options available on the market. Earlier reports suggest he’s received interest from seven or eight teams in recent weeks, including the Orioles, Brewers, Nationals, and Mets in addition to the aforementioned Twins. For his part, Lynn believes there’s “nothing really to worry about — at this moment.“

Holland has the coldest market on this list, at least publicly. The Wade Davis signing seemingly eliminated the possibility of a reunion with the Rockies, and in nearly two months since then, the only public mentions of Holland have been from the Nationals and the Cardinals. Both of those mentions were negative, with the former saying they weren’t very high on him and the latter expressing trepidation about giving a big contract to a closer. Of course, those teams could still be suitors if Holland’s asking price drops far enough, and so could the Indians. I also mentioned the Astros, Rangers, Cubs and Brewers as potential fits back in mid-January.

Cobb reportedly had an offer from the Cubs earlier in the offseason that was said to be in three-year, $42MM range. His camp passed on it, and his market has little in the way of clarity at this point. The Twins showed interest at one point, while the Mets would reportedly explore signing him if his asking price drops far enough. That’s about the only direct link between him and an MLB club we’ve heard about in recent months, though. The Orioles seem to believe he’s too expensive, and the Cubs might not have a clear role for him following the Darvish pact.

A lot can happen in one month; the free agent action so far in February should serve as a prime indicator of that. But at this point it looks possible that one or more of the top ten free agents could hold out into the regular season in hopes of nailing down a guarantee to his liking. With that in mind, I’d like to ask the readers two questions. How many of these players do you think will still be unemployed when the first pitch is thrown on Opening Day, and who do you think is most likely to be unsigned by that point?

How Many Top Ten Free Agents Will Remain Unemployed On Opening Day?
2 24.06% (3,989 votes)
3 23.07% (3,825 votes)
None 17.94% (2,975 votes)
5 15.27% (2,531 votes)
4 9.90% (1,642 votes)
1 9.76% (1,618 votes)
Total Votes: 16,580

Poll link for app users

Which Of These Players Is Most Likely To Be Unemployed On Opening Day?
Greg Holland 31.95% (5,509 votes)
Mike Moustakas 30.42% (5,245 votes)
Jake Arrieta 24.32% (4,192 votes)
Lance Lynn 6.75% (1,164 votes)
Alex Cobb 6.55% (1,130 votes)
Total Votes: 17,240

Poll link for app users

Reactions To And Effects Of The Yu Darvish Deal

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It took over three months, but the premier free agent in this year’s class finally came off the board Saturday. Right-hander Yu Darvish agreed to join the Cubs on a six-year, $126MM guarantee that includes an opt-out clause after 2019. As you’d expect, a bevy of media reactions to the agreement have come in over the course of the day. Here’s a look at several…

  • When the offseason began in November, Darvish “wasn’t really” on Chicago’s radar, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports on Twitter. However, it seems the Cubs benefited from this winter’s slow-moving free-agent market in this case, as it helped lead to a lower-than-expected price tag for Darvish and a major splash for the North Siders. Darvish went into the winter seeking an accord along the lines of Stephen Strasburg’s (seven years, $175MM) or new teammate Jon Lester’s (six years, $155MM), Patrick Mooney of The Athletic details (subscription required).
  • While there’s a well-known fondness between Darvish and the Rangers, with whom he has spent the majority of his career, Texas was “not even close” to landing him, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram hears. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News adds that Texas didn’t make an offer to Darvish, and the club wouldn’t even have been willing to guarantee him $75MM in total if it did. The Rangers have a glaring need for a front-end starter, but they’re not close enough to contention to splurge on one, Grant writes. Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, who has a good relationship with Darvish, spoke highly of the 31-year-old on Saturday. “I am very happy for Yu and hope he gets everything he wants,” Daniels said (via Wilson). “He will go down as one of the best pitchers in Rangers history. I expect he’s going to be very good wherever he goes.”
  • The Dodgers, Darvish’s other ex-team, made him an offer, but it fell short of the Cubs’, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times report. Contrarily, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets that LA was “said to have offered in the same ballpark” as Chicago. Although, signing Darvish would have made it difficult for the Dodgers to achieve their goal of staying under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018.
  • Likewise, tax concerns stood in the way of a Yankees-Darvish union. New York never even made Darvish an offer, Rosenthal tweets.
  • The small-market Twins aggressively went after Darvish this winter, even meeting with him in Texas at some point, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Their offer to Darvish was for at least five years and $100MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). The Twins’ courtship of Darvish went for naught, though, perhaps thanks to their dislike for opt-out clauses and a wariness toward giving him a sixth year, writes Berardino, who adds that they could now look to top available starter Jake Arrieta. On the trade front, Rays righties Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi remain on Minnesota’s radar, relays Berardino, though he suggests the Twins would have to give up too much for the former. Meanwhile, Rosenthal reports that there’s a belief among rival executives the Twins could still add a starter via both free agency and the trade market. Along with Odorizzi, he lists free agent Alex Cobb and Astros righty Collin McHugh as hurlers who have drawn Minnesota’s interest.
  • The upstart Brewers were part of the Darvish derby, too, and the belief is that they also submitted a proposal of at least five years and $100MM, Heyman tweets. However, Rosenthal hears that Milwaukee’s offer “was not as competitive as reports indicated.” Further, Rosenthal suggests that the Brewers may have primarily been in the running just to drive up the price for the NL Central rival Cubs. Regardless, with Darvish now out of the mix, Odorizzi and the Athletics’ Jharel Cotton are trade possibilities for the Brew Crew, according to Rosenthal.
  • In addition to the previously listed Twins and Brewers, the Dodgers and the Phillies are still targeting starters in the wake of the Darvish deal, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Philadelphia is aggressively pursuing a short-term addition, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas are all possibilities, Feinsand adds.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) has mixed feelings on the Darvish pact. While it “appears to be a bargain salary,” Law has reservations about the length, contending that it’s one or two years too long, and he doesn’t regard Darvish “a pure ace.” Darvish has become too reliant on his cutter and not reliant enough on his slider, which has led to vulnerability against left-handed hitters, Law observes. However, Darvish may have “some untapped potential right now” if he leans more on his slider, per Law, who at least sees him as a significant near-term upgrade for the Cubs.

NL East Notes: Mets, Cole, Jay, Braves

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As the Mets have now managed to check off their most pressing needs at fairly reasonable prices, some attention has turned to the question whether the organization might now go on to spend on a starter. GM Sandy Alderson noted that “some opportunities arose for us that probably would not have been expected right after the end of the World Series,” as James Wagner of the New York Times reports. Given the noted health questions for the talented Mets pitching staff, the thinking goes, perhaps the team will look to score some rotation value and thrust itself into clear contention status. To this point, though, the Mets “have yet to engage in meaningful discussions” with free agent hurlers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Rather, the focus seems still to be on finding some pitching depth.

More from the division…

  • At a recent Nationals Hot Stove event, GM Mike Rizzo plainly stated that, as things presently stand, right-hander A.J. Cole is his team’s fifth starter (link via TalkNats.com). “Our number five starter, you know, is A.J. Cole which I’m really looking forward to seeing where he’s at this year,” said Rizzo. “If you look at his numbers last year, his last seven starts were outstanding. He pitched in eleven games last year in the big leagues with eight starts and had a 3.81 ERA… Look at the other teams in our division. See where that ERA ranks on those other staffs.” Of course, fielding-independent metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all pegged Cole north of 5.00, due largely to a 4.7 BB/9 rate and a pedestrian 7.6 K/9 mark. One would think, too, that a strong Spring Training effort from someone such as Austin Voth or Erick Fedde could impact that plan, as could the addition of an arm via free agency or trade. At present, though, it’s certainly noteworthy that the job is Cole’s to lose. Cole figures to make the roster in some capacity, as he’s out of minor league options.
  • Jon Jay “appears to be a consideration” for the Marlins in free agency, FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column. Jay has some local ties, having played his college ball at Miami, though it’s not entirely clear at this point how much the Marlins are willing to spend. Heyman suggests that their payroll is south of the $85MM mark at present, though between the commitments to Wei-Yin Chen ($10MM salary + $8MM deferred signing bonus payment this June), Martin Prado ($13.5MM), Starlin Castro ($10MM), Brad Ziegler ($9MM), Junichi Tazawa ($7MM), Derek Dietrich ($2.9MM), Justin Bour ($3.4MM), J.T. Realmuto ($2.9MM) and Miguel Rojas ($1.18MM) they’re at nearly $68MM. Add in the $13MM they owe Edinson Volquez, the remaining unresolved arb case of Dan Straily and a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and it’d seem they’re still north of $90MM.
  • Heyman also notes that the Braves would add a third baseman if they can find a match on a one-year deal, but they’re comfortable using Johan Camargo there for a year while waiting for prospect Austin Riley to finish off his development in the upper minors. More generally, he adds that they’re looking more at “depth” signings than anything else at this point of the offseason.

Twins Reportedly Make Formal Offer To Yu Darvish

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After several months of back and forth negotiations, the Twins have submitted a formal offer to Yu Darvish’s camp, reports Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN in the latest episode of his podcast (audio link, Twins talk starting up at the 2:25 mark and running through 11:00).

Exact parameters of the offer aren’t known, but Wolfson cites multiple sources in reporting that the offer is four or five years in length. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) reported yesterday that Darvish has received multiple offers worth $100M+, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier today that he has “several” five-year offers. Given all three of those reports, it certainly seems plausible that the Twins have put forth a nine-figure offer to Darvish, which would easily be the largest commitment they’ve ever made to a free agent.

Minnesota, according to Wolfson, remains reluctant to push its offer for Darvish up into the six-year territory. To that end, while Darvish is the top target for the Twins, Minnesota has also remained in touch with the agents for a number of other free-agent starters, ranging from second-tier names like Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. Other names mentioned by Wolfson include Jaime Garcia, Chris Tillman and Jason Vargas, so the Twins are understandably casting a wide net in the event that Darvish chooses another suitor. Notably, the team hasn’t made an offer to either Lynn or Cobb.

Perhaps more interestingly, Wolfson adds that the Twins are “maintaining pretty regular trade talk” with the Rays about the possibility of acquiring some rotation help, though Tampa Bay remains largely resistant to the idea of parting with coveted top starter Chris Archer. Jake Odorizzi’s name has been connected to the Twins on multiple occasions this offseason, however, and he could yet remain a target for the Twins. (More generally, he adds that the Rays have quite a bit of interest in outfielder Max Kepler, who has been the Twins’ primary right fielder in each of the past two seasons despite the fact that he’s not yet 25 years of age.)

A trade, though, would likely be a more serious option in the event that Darvish signs elsewhere; Wolfson notes that even after learning that Ervin Santana will be out for 10 to 12 weeks following surgery on his right middle finger, the Twins are only looking to fill one rotation spot.

Even with Santana sidelined for as much as the first month of the season, the Twins don’t appear to be in any kind of panic mode. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote yesterday that the Twins believe Santana could be ready on the shorter end of his 10- to 12-week timeline. Even if he takes the full 12 weeks, Wolfson notes that the team will only need a fifth starter two or three times in April, given the large number of off days baked into the early-season schedule.

With Santana on the shelf, the Twins’ rotation will likely consist of whichever free agent/trade target they bring into the mix, in addition to Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia. The team also has a pair of prospects that have dotted top 100 lists over the past two seasons in Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero, plus veteran Phil Hughes returning from thoracic outlet surgery. Triple-A righties Felix Jorge and Aaron Slegers each saw brief glimpses of MLB action last year as well and could be leaned on for a spot start this coming April. Reliever Tyler Duffey will be stretched back out and given a shot at starting once again this spring as well, Wolfson notes. Righty Trevor May would be another option, though he’s not expected to return until late May, per both Hayes and Wolfson.

Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t exactly lacking for depth, though the group of arms on which they’ll lean early in the year is, clearly, rife with question marks. A veteran to position at or near the top of the rotation looks all the more like a priority, given that context.

AL Notes: Sox, Nunez, E. Jimenez, Orioles, Royals, Soler

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Free agent utilityman Eduardo Nunez “hasn’t lost contact with the Red Sox,” Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald writes. With Dustin Pedroia set to miss the early portion of the year as he recovers from knee surgery, re-signing Nunez would give Boston a clear Opening Day second baseman. However, Nunez would obviously lose playing time upon Pedroia’s return, and the Red Sox are also set at his other positions – third base, shortstop and the corner outfield. All of those factors, not to mention interest from other clubs, could prevent Nunez’s return to the Red Sox. The 30-year-old joined the Sox via trade with the Giants last summer and thrived, hitting a stellar .321/.353/.539 in 173 plate appearances.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • As their search for starting pitchers continues, the Orioles remain interested in re-signing free agent right-hander Chris Tillman, while fellow righties Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are still too expensive, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Kubatko also adds a new name to the mix, 27-year-old righty Drew Hutchison, who’s on Baltimore’s radar. The Orioles are familiar with Hutchison from his run with AL East rival Toronto from 2012-16. Hutchison had his moments across 406 1/3 innings as a Blue Jay, with whom he pitched to a 4.92 ERA/4.23 FIP and posted 8.28 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9. However, he only threw 24 big league frames between Toronto and Pittsburgh in 2016, and he’s now coming off a year spent exclusively in the minors. With the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate last season, Hutchison logged a 3.56 ERA/4.13 FIP with 7.0 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 over 159 1/3 innings.
  • When the Royals acquired outfielder Jorge Soler from the Cubs last year for closer Wade Davis, their hope was that the former top prospect would develop into a long-term building block. Soler, 25, still has a chance to do that, but Year 1 with the Royals saw him limp to a .144/.245/.258 showing in 110 PAs and, according to Maria Torres of the Kansas City Star, begin to believe that his major league career was over. Reflecting on 2017, most of which he spent in the minors, Soler told Torres: “I had an awful season. Things went fine in the minor leagues but not in the big leagues. Obviously there were things I was doing wrong. I needed to make adjustments. … I don’t know how it’ll translate to the field but in the cage there’s an incredible change. I’ve never felt this way.” Hoping to avoid a repeat this year, Soler has spent the offseason reshaping himself mentally and physically, having lost 20 pounds, and revamping his swing, as Torres details. Since October, Soler has been in Miami working with Dodgers international scout Mike Tosar, who helped Yonder Alonso break out last season. The results of their sessions have encouraged not only Soler and Tosar, but also members of Royals’ front office. General manager Dayton Moore suggested that Soler will be an everyday player for the Royals this year, adding that “the talent is there” and “we believe in him a great deal.”
  • White Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez, one of the game’s best prospects, has only racked up 73 PAs above the Single-A level. Nevertheless, there’s optimism the 21-year-old will make his major league debut in 2018, per Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. Jimenez told Levine “he’s close to getting to the big leagues,” while GM Rick Hahn noted that “it is not going to shock me if over the summer Eloy forces our hand a bit.” Levine’s piece is worth checking out in full for more quotes on Jimenez from Hahn and White Sox hitting coach Todd Steverson.

East Notes: Marlins, Arroyo, E-Rod, Mets

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A 2008 agreement between Miami-Dade county and Jeffrey Loria (and his partners) saw the county fund most of the $515 million government-owned Marlins stadium in Little Havana. In exchange, the county was promised the right to 5 percent of any profits Loria & co. earned if they sold the team within 10 years. Yet Loria’s lawyers have released documents telling the county not to expect any money at all from last year’s $1.2 billion sale of the Marlins, Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald writes. The reasoning from Loria’s camp is that his accountants claim the sale amounted to a net loss of $141MM. The breakdown they offer begins with a $625MM agreed-to underlying value of the franchise, $280MM in debt, circa $300MM in taxes tied to the sale and a write-off of the $30MM fee paid to financial advisors. Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez says that the city may sue to collect the taxpayers’ fair share of that $1.2 billion. My message is that this community really allowed you to make a lot of money,” he said on Friday. “He should do the right thing. He made profits, and he made big profits. He should share that with the people who allowed him to do that.”

Here are a few other tidbits from around the league’s Eastern teams…

  • Newly-acquired Rays infielder Christian Arroyo was working out at Tropicana Field on Friday morning, Bill Chastain of MLB.com writes. MLB Pipeline’s 81st overall prospect saw his 2017 season end due to a broken hand, but surgeon Donald Sheridan cleared him for baseball activities after a visit on January 9th. “The hand is great,” Arroyo said. “Right now, it’s about getting back into baseball shape.” The 22-year-old came to Tampa Bay in this winter’s trade that sent Evan Longoria to San Francisco. He hit .192/.244/.304 across 135 plate appearances with the Giants last year in his first taste of big-league action, and figures to be in the Rays’ infield mix for the coming season.
  • Speaking of young players returning from injury, Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez could potentially miss a few starts at the beginning of the season after undergoing right knee patellofemoral ligament reconstruction surgery, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. “[The injury] happened, like, three times already,” Rodriguez pointed out. “I was just trying to fight to pitch with a knee like that. And I did it. Sometimes there would be ups and downs. Now it’s time to get back to the guy I was before I got the surgery.” The 24-year-old southpaw’s had his share of ups and downs across parts of three seasons with the Red Sox. Last season, he put up 137 1/3 innings for the club while striking out 9.83 batters per nine and posting a 4.19 ERA overall.
  • Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier are currently the Mets’ leading choices in their search for an infielder, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports via Twitter. They’re apparently leery of getting “used” by Frazier (presumably for leverage) if he prefers the Yankees as his ultimate destination. In addition, the Mets are reportedly reluctant to bring back second baseman Neil Walker, and aren’t getting any traction in their efforts to acquire Josh Harrison from the Pirates. Lastly, Rosenthal adds that the team is interested in signing Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn out of free agency if their prices dip low enough.

AL Central Notes: Martinez, Cobb, Darvish, Twins, Starling, Greene

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The Indians announced today that non-roster invitee Michael Martinez suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during his offseason workout (specifically, agility exercises), which required surgical repair and will sideline the veteran utilityman for the next six months. The 35-year-old Martinez was a long shot to make the big league roster out of Spring Training, but he’s found his way onto Cleveland’s Major League roster in each of the past three seasons, helping to fill in for various injuries. He’s batted .257/.289/.331 over the life of 145 plate appearances with Cleveland. That six-month timeline will put Martinez on track for an August return, so it’s still possible that he could at least return to the club’s Triple-A team late in the season.

Elsewhere in the AL Central…

  • Minnesota’s interest in Alex Cobb has been “overstated,” reports MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger in his latest Twins Inbox column. (MLBTR recently explored the market for Cobb as part of our Free Agent Profile series.) Yu Darvish remains the Twins’ top priority, but they’re reluctant to go beyond a five-year deal in order to land any free agent. The Twins still have some interest in Chris Tillman as a possible rebound candidate, Bollinger adds. He also notes that chief baseball officer Derek Falvey wouldn’t rule out a reunion with Jaime Garcia, whom the Twins acquired from the Braves this summer, only to flip him to the Yankees roughly a week later.
  • A reinvigorated Bubba Starling tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that he believes he can compete for an outfield job with the Royals this spring. Starling, a former first-round pick and lauded top prospect, candidly tells Flanagan that he nearly walked away from baseball entirely in 2017 after getting off to a brutal start to the season, hitting .121/.205/.182 through his first 21 games (a slump that came on the heels of a .534 OPS the year prior). Starling struck out at a 30 percent clip through those 21 games, but he stuck with it at the urging of his family and soon made some mechanical alterations after a chat with hitting coach Tommy Gregg. The tweaks paid dividends, as Starling slashed .288/.335/.443 with just an 18.5 percent strikeout rate over his next 230 PAs before an oblique injury cut his season short in August.
  • Shane Greene expects to be the Tigers’ closer in 2017, writes George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press. “I feel like I’m the closer and I’ve earned that job and it’s my job to lose,” said the 29-year-old Greene, who pitched to a 2.66 ERA with 9.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate in 67 2/3 innings for Detroit in 2017.  New pitching coach Chris Bosio spoke positively of Greene’s stuff and makeup, and Sipple notes that the team’s decision to allow setup man Alex Wilson to compete for a starting job this spring only enhances Greene’s grip on the ninth inning. Speculatively, young Joe Jimenez will eventually be the biggest on-paper threat to Greene’s chances, but he was torched for a 12.32 ERA in 19 innings last year. Jimenez, though, turned 23 just two weeks ago and has a career 1.56 ERA with 13.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in the minors. He’ll need to prove himself in the Majors, though he could find himself in high-leverage situations sooner rather than later if he’s able to do so early in the year.

Heyman’s Latest: Corbin, Darvish, Cobb, Kemp, Nationals, CarGo, K-Rod

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Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports is back with his latest collection of notes and rumblings on all 30 Major League teams…

  • The Brewers and Diamondbacks had “extensive talks” about left-hander Patrick Corbin at some point in the offseason.  Corbin has been mentioned as a possible trade chip due to his price tag ($7.5MM in 2018, his final year under contract) and Arizona’s increased amount of rotation depth.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, has a clear need for rotation help, so it makes sense that the Brew Crew checked in on Corbin amidst their numerous other talks about notable arms on the free agent and trade fronts — as Heyman put it, “they have investigated every pitching possibility out there.”  This is just my speculation, but the Brewers’ surplus of young center fielders (Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips) could be intriguing to the D’Backs since A.J. Pollock is only a year away from free agency.  The Yankees are known to be one of the many teams who have also discussed Corbin this winter.
  • The Twins aren’t thought to be willing to go beyond five years for Yu Darvish, and “Alex Cobb is believed to be their fallback choice for the rotation” if Darvish passes.  The Rangers similarly have interest in Darvish and Cobb if their prices fall, though it sounds like Texas is hoping for only a major bargain signing.  As one source tells Heyman, “the Rangers are lowballing even the lowballers” in contract offers.
  • The Dodgers have “three or four” potential trade partners in mind for Matt Kemp, according to a source, though Heyman hears from another source that the Rangers are “probably not” a candidate for the veteran outfielder.  It seems like not much has changed since Heyman last checked in on Kemp’s trade market in December, and L.A. may have to attach some minor league talent to get anyone to bite on Kemp’s $43MM in remaining salary owed through the 2019 season.
  • Nationals ownership has concerns about the luxury tax, so it seems unlikely that they will make another pricey, late-winter signing as in past years.  Washington currently projects to exceed the $197MM tax threshold but only by a few million dollars, and should still be able to spend a bit on in-season upgrades without triggering a higher level of tax penalties.
  • Carlos Gonzalez is still an option for the Orioles as they look to add another left-handed hitting outfielder.  CarGo is looking to rebound from a nightmarish 2017 that saw him post a -0.2 fWAR overall, though he did hit much better over the last two months of the season.  Baltimore likely wouldn’t have to spend much to land Gonzalez, and thus the O’s could focus more money on their larger pitching needs.
  • Francisco Rodriguez has received some offers after throwing for scouts.  The former closer is trying to revive his career after a disastrous season that saw him released by both the Tigers and Nationals.

Brewers Still Seeking Rotation Upgrades, Could Deal From Outfield Surplus

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The Brewers are the talk of Major League Baseball at present, having pulled off a blockbuster trade to acquire Christian Yelich and agreed to a five-year deal with Lorenzo Cain in a span of mere hours. Milwaukee is hardly done for the offseason, though, and reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link) and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) highlight the various avenues they can take toward further improvement.

Milwaukee is shopping outfielders Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton as it looks for an upgrade to its rotation, according to Nightengale. Rosenthal suggests a bit more softly that the Brewers are open to offers on Santana but aren’t eager to trade him, hoping instead to at times run out an outfield of Yelich, Cain and Santana. The organization has discussed the idea of utilizing Ryan Braun at first base on occasion, Rosenthal adds. While Yelich, Cain, Santana, Braun and Eric Thames make five players for four spots, though certainly that depth wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Brewers to carry into the 2018 season.

Broxton, it seems, is something of an odd man out following yesterday’s acquisitions. The 27-year-old served as the Brewers’ primary center fielder in 2017 and hit .220/.299/.420 with 20 homers and 21 steals through 463 plate appearances. Broxton, though, also struck out at a staggering 37.8 percent clip and delivered mixed results in the outfield. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.2) considered him below average, whereas Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric credited him at +9 outs, ranking him among the game’s 15 best overall outfielders.

Broxton certainly has his warts, but the 27-year-old is controllable through the 2022 season and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason at the earliest (when he’s likely to be a Super Two player). In many regards, he fits the criteria of what the Giants are looking for in a minimum-salary center field option. He’s also out of minor league options, so if he’s not going to play a role on the Brewers in 2018, he figures to be traded.

Santana, meanwhile, is controlled through the 2021 season and is coming off an excellent season in which he batted .278/.371/.505 with 30 homers and 29 doubles. His superior production in 2017 would assuredly make him a costlier asset in trade talks with the Brewers, though he’s also a vastly superior asset for the Brewers when attempting to pry a big league starter away from clubs in trade talks.

Brett Phillips stands out as another potentially available outfielder currently in the Brewers’ mix. The 23-year-old hit .276/.351/.448 with four homers and five steals through 98 PAs as a rookie this past season, though like Broxton, he struggled with a sky-high strikeout rate (34.7 percent). The strikeout woes weren’t limited to that brief MLB exposure, either, as Phillips whiffed at a 29.9 percent clip in the minors, too. He also posted BABIP marks north of .400 in both the Majors and Triple-A in 2017, suggesting that his production was somewhat overstated. Nonetheless, the former top prospect should draw interest, as he’s controllable all the way through 2023 and does have minor league options remaining.

While the Brewers’ now considerable outfield surplus makes the possibility of a trade fairly obvious, the team could also still pursue starters on the free-agent market. Rosenthal characterizes a signing of Yu Darvish or Alex Cobb as unlikely, though the market for starters has been stagnant to the point that nearly every lower-tier option remains available for the Brewers to explore.

Quick Hits: Cobb, Uehara, Slow Offseason

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Right-hander Alex Cobb entered free agency among the best available players, a 30-year-old destined to land one of the offseason’s richest contracts. While a hefty payday should still come, Cobb – like the rest of this year’s premier free agents – continues to wait for a deal nearly three months after the market opened. Cobb acknowledged to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that his trip to free agency during this famously plodding winter hasn’t gone according to plan, noting that “somewhere between November and December you realize how slow things are going and you kind of start reading the writing on the wall that this is a little bit of a different offseason than years before.” Cobb added that there has been frustration along the way, though he realizes he’s in the same situation as so many other unsigned players. “You just kind of change your frame of mind to accepting the fact that this thing is going to go down to the wire and you get comfortable with that,” he told Topkin in a piece that features other interesting quotes.

  • Reliever Koji Uehara also seems perturbed with this offseason’s free agent process. And at 42 years old (43 in March), he’s unsure if he’s going to receive a major league offer. If one doesn’t come, Uehara could call it quits. “I’ll retire if I’m only offered a minor league deal,” he said (via the Kyodo News). “There have been some talks, but no offers have been forthcoming. It seems like something’s on the horizon and then it isn’t. I can be patient for a little longer.” In the event Uehara does secure a big league pact for 2018, he’s “more than 90 percent certain” he’ll stick with his previously stated goal to retire after the season. That would give him 10 major league campaigns and 10 years as a pro in his native Japan. Despite his age, Uehara remained a major league-caliber reliever in 2017. As a member of the Cubs, the righty registered a 3.98 ERA with 10.47 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9 across 43 innings.
  • As MLB and the MLBPA spar over the league’s forthcoming implementation of a pitch clock, Buster Olney of ESPN writes that the two sides’ relationship may be at its worst point since the 1994-95 labor stoppage. The current collective bargaining agreement (which expires in December 2021) is seemingly a key reason, as many agents have suggested to Olney that the MLBPA “lost enormous financial ground” when it agreed to the CBA a year ago. As mentioned earlier, there’s a lack of movement in free agency; some agents believe the market inactivity has helped lead to the union’s close-mindedness toward the league’s ideas to speed up pace of play, per Olney, who argues that would be senseless on the MLBPA’s part. While there are plenty of theories about what has caused the offseason to go the way it has, one agent opined to Olney that collusion on the part of teams isn’t an issue. “I don’t think for one instant that this is collusion,” stated the agent. “[The union] negotiated the terms of this CBA, and it’s up to us [the agents] to adjust and give the best possible advice to our clients based on the market.”
  • Continuing with the slow winter theme, Travis Sawchik of The Athletic observes that teams’ growing skepticism toward paying for free agents’ decline years is among the primary reasons for the glacial pace (subscription required/highly recommended). Indeed, one executive told Sawchik that “it’s not if you will lose on free agency, it’s how much you will lose.” Sawchik goes on to posit that the longer the offseason stays this way, the more likely it is low- to mid-spending teams could land quality players at discounted costs. He points to the Pirates’ signing of David Freese in 2016 and the Indians’ addition of Edwin Encarnacion last winter as recent examples of that happening.
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