Alex Cobb

Market Notes: Jay, Moustakas, Cobb

By Jeff Todd | March 13, 2018 at 8:33am CDT

Several reporters have turned their gazes back on the more confounding free-agent market in recent memory, chronicling some of the more incongruous results and providing additional reporting on how it all unfolded. We’ll run through some of the key points here:

It’s always worth remembering that free agency is a game that features plenty of variability and would never (theoretically) be played the same way twice. Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on what might have been for some players. Logan Morrison and Greg Holland both asked for more than was being offered and ended up being bypassed when teams checked down to other targets. The Mariners, says Olney, dangled three years to veteran outfielder Jon Jay before they struck a trade for Dee Gordon. (That rather surprising offer could have had quite a domino effect on the outfield and second base markets had it been accepted.) On the other hand, Olney cites Angels sources that reject the notion the club offered Mike Moustakas a $45MM contract, as had been reported. Of course, had any of those situations developed differently, it’s possible we’d just be talking about different players whose markets collapsed.
As part of his lengthy examination of the brutal winter for free agency, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has an interesting note on one of the few top players yet to have signed. Veteran starter Alex Cobb, he says, was in position to secure a four-year, $48MM offer at one point earlier in the winter (from an unknown team) and “easily” could have landed a three-year guarantee. We’re obviously still waiting to see just what Cobb will ultimately earn, but needless to say, it seems unlikely he’ll reach the levels he might have had previously. In the meantime, several lesser pitchers have gone on to sign fairly solid, multi-year deals, perhaps absorbing some of the demand that might have led to a better payout for Cobb.
Every period of free agency produces highs and lows, of course, but they seem particularly pronounced this time around with such an array of outcomes. Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag have each run through the winners and losers on this shocker of a market.

Central Notes: Royals, Liriano, Cobb, Brewers

By Steve Adams | March 12, 2018 at 7:32pm CDT

The Royals would still like to add help in either the rotation or the bullpen, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but their payroll is elevated to the point where they have very little room for further additions. As such, a reunion with still-lingering free agent Greg Holland seems “extremely remote,” Nightengale adds. Over the past couple of weeks, the Royals have signed Lucas Duda ($3.5MM), Jon Jay ($3MM) and Mike Moustakas ($6.5MM) in a late trio of additions, pushing their payroll up into the $122MM range.

AL Central Notes: Lynn, Twins, Hahn, Jay, Indians

By Steve Adams | March 6, 2018 at 9:00pm CDT

The Twins’ recently reported two-year offer to Lance Lynn was for a total of $20MM, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Lynn’s camp considered that offer a “non-starter,” however, according to Berardino. Minnesota remains open to adding a starter on an affordable and relatively short-term pact, Berardino continues, noting that outside of the team’s $100MM+ offer to Yu Darvish, all of their offseason free-agent dealings have been at one- or two-year terms. He adds that the Twins aren’t aggressively pursuing Alex Cobb, and given Lynn’s apparent unwillingness to consider a two-year term, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will ultimately be a landing spot for any of the top three remaining starters. There are still a few intriguing names on the market who could sign shorter-term deals, including John Lackey and Trevor Cahill, though the Twins haven’t been strongly tied to any of them.

AL Notes: Orioles, Machado, Twins, Rays

By Connor Byrne | March 4, 2018 at 7:58pm CDT

It doesn’t appear Orioles general manager Dan Duquette is planning to initiate extension talks with contract-year shortstop Manny Machado. “I would never say never, but we’re going to be more focused on ’18 than beyond,” Duquette told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “I don’t really know what’s going to happen beyond that.” Machado, Duquette, manager Buck Showalter, center fielder Adam Jones and relievers Zach Britton and Brad Brach are all scheduled to become free agents after the season, leading Duquette to admit to Feinsand that 2018 will be the last hurrah for this particular Orioles core. If he stays the GM into 2019, Duquette hasn’t closed the door on spending in free agency next winter, but he also isn’t dismissing the idea of a rebuild. Regarding a potential teardown, Duquette offered: “There is some logic toward doing that, right? You get the premium picks in the Draft and they can become the core players for your next championship club. A lot of this is timing; it’s cyclical.”

Latest On The Top Remaining Free Agent Starters

By Steve Adams | March 2, 2018 at 12:44pm CDT

The Nationals reportedly remain open to adding to their roster before the season begins, and while they’ve been oft-linked to top remaining free agent Jake Arrieta, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports that the Nats “haven’t engaged with Arrieta’s camp recently.” The Nationals, it seems (much like the rest of baseball), would be likelier to jump into the fray if Arrieta’s price drops.

Castillo does note that at least three other clubs have made recent inquiries with Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras. One of those is likely the Phillies, who are reported to have an ongoing dialogue with Boras regarding Arrieta. However, most reports out of Philadelphia suggest that the Phils are loath to go beyond three years for the former NL Cy Yong winner, who will pitch this season at age 32 and has displayed some signs of decline in recent years — most notably a loss of velocity and worsened K/BB rates.

Alternatives for the Nats, Phillies and other clubs searching for rotation upgrades are still on the market in the form of Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, who both remain unsigned. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes, however, that the Phils are even less likely to sign Cobb or Lynn to a long-term deal than they are Arrieta (and again reports that the Phils don’t want to go past three years for Arrieta). Even a contract in the vicinity of Tyler Chatwood’s three-year, $38MM pact with the Cubs could be too rich for the Phillies’ tastes when it comes to Lynn and Cobb, Zolecki writes.

It seems that virtually every club in need of rotation help is awaiting the asking price on the top three starters to drop. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweets that both Cobb and Lynn are still seeking guarantees worth more than $50MM. (It’s worth pointing out that the manner in which that report frames draft compensation is inaccurate; the draft/international penalty for signing any of Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn is not tied to that $50MM figure, but a deal of $50MM or more would improve the compensation for the teams losing those players.)

The Orioles, Brewers, Phillies and Twins all hold varying levels of interest in Cobb and/or Lynn, Bowden notes, but not at the current asking price. The Twins’ level of interest in Lynn doesn’t appear to be especially high at this point, though. While Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN walks back a recent report a bit by tweeting that Minnesota’s offer to Lynn was for more than the $12MM he initially reported, he adds that it was nonetheless well shy of anything his camp considered and that there are no current talks between the two sides.

Nationals Still Weighing Additions; Angels, Twins Likely Done

By Jeff Todd | February 28, 2018 at 1:13pm CDT

With Spring Training in full swing and several recent signings taking a few more players off of the free-agent board, much of the offseason picture is finally now in focus. Of course, as MLBTR’s 2017-18 MLB Free Agent Tracker shows, there are still some big names available. Several organizations clearly also have unfinished business, while others may already feel they’ve addressed their needs or maxed out their resources.

Here are some notes on teams’ plans on the day before the calendar flips to March:

The Nationals are still eyeing improvements, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). In particular, the Washington front office “remain[s] engaged” with the top remaining free agent, starter Jake Arrieta. But it seems that he’s not the sole player of interest, as the organization is said to be “monitor[ing]” the market for possibilities. It is worth noting that several other remaining free agents could fit the Nats rather comfortably on paper, potentially including other starters such as Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, top reliever Greg Holland, and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Of course, there’s no real indication whether any of those players are presently seen as options within the Nationals organization.
Quite the opposite impression is being given by the Angels, as Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets. GM Billy Eppler says that the organization is “not looking to pursue anything” else after a busy winter, though he does note that he’s “open-minded to things that come around.” That certainly sounds more like a willingness to entertain bargain-rate signings than any kind of interest in pushing for another significant addition. The Halos could clearly stand to improve their pitching, though it also may be that the front office prefers to allow existing options to rise or fall before addressing any needs at the trade deadline. At present, the Angels seem to have around $25MM in payroll space before bumping against the luxury line, though the organization is surely also loath to add too much to the future balance sheets.
It seems the Twins also feel their roster-building work is done, with chief baseball officer Derek Falvey telling reporters including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that there’s a “high likelihood” the team has already compiled its Opening Day unit. Minnesota did make quite a few acquisitions over the winter, including recent moves for Jake Odorizzi and Logan Morrison that added fairly significant salary commitments for the 2018 season. Some have wondered whether another rotation piece would make sense, but that doesn’t seem to be in the plans at present. Minnesota is slated to open with a club-record $116MM+ payroll, though the organization had already been in nine figures to open each of the past three years.

Aaron Boone: Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb “Aren’t Really In Play” For Yankees

By Connor Byrne | February 25, 2018 at 9:36am CDT

During their quest to acquire starting pitching in recent months, the Yankees have been connected to a litany of potential trade and free agent targets. The list includes right-handers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, who rank as two of the best free agents remaining in this year’s class. It doesn’t appear either will end up with the Yankees, though, if we’re to believe manager Aaron Boone.

“At this point I don’t see those guys as realistic options,” Boone said Sunday (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). “It’s my understanding that those guys aren’t really in play for us.”

With the Yankees poised to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold and having anywhere from $10MM to $15MM left to spend, Lynn or Cobb would likely be a tight fit for the club’s budget (MLBTR predicted $14MM per annum for Lynn and $12MM a year for Cobb at the outset of the offseason). Although things haven’t gone according to plan for either pitcher since the market opened, they still seem likely to reel in contracts worth somewhere in the $10MM to 15MM-per-year vicinity. Further, because Lynn and Cobb rejected qualifying offers at the start of the offseason, signing either would cost the Yankees two 2018 draft picks (their second- and fifth-highest selections) and $1MM in international bonus pool space.

Even if they’re truly not in the mix for Lynn or Cobb, the Yankees still have the financial wiggle room to make some sort of move(s) – particularly after addressing third base this week with the acquisition of the inexpensive Brandon Drury. However, general manager Brian Cashman may not feel any urgency to upgrade over the Yankees’ current starting five.

New York’s on track to begin the year with Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery, the same rotation that helped the club to 91 regular-season wins and a berth in the ALCS in 2017. There are some question marks with each – arguably more in terms of workload and/or durability than performance – but if the quintet doesn’t deliver as hoped during the season, the Yankees could bolster their rotation via trade. That’s exactly what they did last year when they picked up Gray from Oakland in July.

Poll: Still-Unemployed Top Ten Free Agents

By Kyle Downing | February 24, 2018 at 3:08pm CDT

Spring training has begun, and while recent announcements by the Cubs and Padres of nine-figure deals (with Yu Darvish and Eric Hosmer, respectively) have quieted cries of collusion from the player’s union, the unemployment level of top free agents remains historic. Specifically, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents (excluding Masahiro Tanaka, who never actually reached free agency) are still unsigned. The recent mega-contracts have overshadowed the urgency of the situation for these free agents, as they’ve got barely more than a month left to find jobs before Opening Day. As each day passes, it becomes more difficult to simply assume that Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will all agree to terms before that time comes.

The market on the above players isn’t totally cold as of now. On the contrary, there seems to be some buzz surrounding many of them. Here’s what we know at the moment…

Arrieta and his representatives were said to be “having dialogue” as recently as four days ago, and it’s believed that there’s real interest being explored. At the same time, though, there appears to be a gap between the two sides’ bargaining positions. There have also been multiple recent reports that the Phillies don’t want to lock themselves into a long-term deal to improve their rotation. While Darvish fell short of expectations with a $126MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says Boras is attempting to convince front offices that Arrieta compares more favorably to David Price, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. The oft-vehement Boras apparently sees Darvish as an “analytics phenom”, but describes analytics as a “management excuse to keep salaries down.” He also says that Arrieta beats Darvish in something he calls “prestige” value. Heyman lists seven teams as potential landing spots for Arrieta, believing he’s most likely to land with the Nationals, Brewers or Phillies.

Moustakas seems to have little traction with any MLB club at this point. The Braves have engaged his camp, but there seems to be no evidence that a deal is likely to come together. The White Sox have also been loosely linked to him. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll return to Kansas City at this point, as the Royals would apparently rather give Cheslor Cuthbert a shot at third base as they begin to rebuild. Moose reportedly has plenty of one-year offers on the table, but it’s not clear whether he’ll receive any significant multi-year offers at this point in the offseason.

Lynn hasn’t been forced to dramatically lower his asking price, and last we heard, the Twins preferred him to the other options available on the market. Earlier reports suggest he’s received interest from seven or eight teams in recent weeks, including the Orioles, Brewers, Nationals, and Mets in addition to the aforementioned Twins. For his part, Lynn believes there’s “nothing really to worry about — at this moment.“

Holland has the coldest market on this list, at least publicly. The Wade Davis signing seemingly eliminated the possibility of a reunion with the Rockies, and in nearly two months since then, the only public mentions of Holland have been from the Nationals and the Cardinals. Both of those mentions were negative, with the former saying they weren’t very high on him and the latter expressing trepidation about giving a big contract to a closer. Of course, those teams could still be suitors if Holland’s asking price drops far enough, and so could the Indians. I also mentioned the Astros, Rangers, Cubs and Brewers as potential fits back in mid-January.

Cobb reportedly had an offer from the Cubs earlier in the offseason that was said to be in three-year, $42MM range. His camp passed on it, and his market has little in the way of clarity at this point. The Twins showed interest at one point, while the Mets would reportedly explore signing him if his asking price drops far enough. That’s about the only direct link between him and an MLB club we’ve heard about in recent months, though. The Orioles seem to believe he’s too expensive, and the Cubs might not have a clear role for him following the Darvish pact.

A lot can happen in one month; the free agent action so far in February should serve as a prime indicator of that. But at this point it looks possible that one or more of the top ten free agents could hold out into the regular season in hopes of nailing down a guarantee to his liking. With that in mind, I’d like to ask the readers two questions. How many of these players do you think will still be unemployed when the first pitch is thrown on Opening Day, and who do you think is most likely to be unsigned by that point?

Poll link for app users

Reactions To And Effects Of The Yu Darvish Deal

By Connor Byrne | February 10, 2018 at 7:21pm CDT

It took over three months, but the premier free agent in this year’s class finally came off the board Saturday. Right-hander Yu Darvish agreed to join the Cubs on a six-year, $126MM guarantee that includes an opt-out clause after 2019. As you’d expect, a bevy of media reactions to the agreement have come in over the course of the day. Here’s a look at several…

When the offseason began in November, Darvish “wasn’t really” on Chicago’s radar, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports on Twitter. However, it seems the Cubs benefited from this winter’s slow-moving free-agent market in this case, as it helped lead to a lower-than-expected price tag for Darvish and a major splash for the North Siders. Darvish went into the winter seeking an accord along the lines of Stephen Strasburg’s (seven years, $175MM) or new teammate Jon Lester’s (six years, $155MM), Patrick Mooney of The Athletic details (subscription required).
While there’s a well-known fondness between Darvish and the Rangers, with whom he has spent the majority of his career, Texas was “not even close” to landing him, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram hears. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News adds that Texas didn’t make an offer to Darvish, and the club wouldn’t even have been willing to guarantee him $75MM in total if it did. The Rangers have a glaring need for a front-end starter, but they’re not close enough to contention to splurge on one, Grant writes. Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, who has a good relationship with Darvish, spoke highly of the 31-year-old on Saturday. “I am very happy for Yu and hope he gets everything he wants,” Daniels said (via Wilson). “He will go down as one of the best pitchers in Rangers history. I expect he’s going to be very good wherever he goes.”
The Dodgers, Darvish’s other ex-team, made him an offer, but it fell short of the Cubs’, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times report. Contrarily, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets that LA was “said to have offered in the same ballpark” as Chicago. Although, signing Darvish would have made it difficult for the Dodgers to achieve their goal of staying under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018.
Likewise, tax concerns stood in the way of a Yankees-Darvish union. New York never even made Darvish an offer, Rosenthal tweets.
The small-market Twins aggressively went after Darvish this winter, even meeting with him in Texas at some point, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Their offer to Darvish was for at least five years and $100MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). The Twins’ courtship of Darvish went for naught, though, perhaps thanks to their dislike for opt-out clauses and a wariness toward giving him a sixth year, writes Berardino, who adds that they could now look to top available starter Jake Arrieta. On the trade front, Rays righties Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi remain on Minnesota’s radar, relays Berardino, though he suggests the Twins would have to give up too much for the former. Meanwhile, Rosenthal reports that there’s a belief among rival executives the Twins could still add a starter via both free agency and the trade market. Along with Odorizzi, he lists free agent Alex Cobb and Astros righty Collin McHugh as hurlers who have drawn Minnesota’s interest.
The upstart Brewers were part of the Darvish derby, too, and the belief is that they also submitted a proposal of at least five years and $100MM, Heyman tweets. However, Rosenthal hears that Milwaukee’s offer “was not as competitive as reports indicated.” Further, Rosenthal suggests that the Brewers may have primarily been in the running just to drive up the price for the NL Central rival Cubs. Regardless, with Darvish now out of the mix, Odorizzi and the Athletics’ Jharel Cotton are trade possibilities for the Brew Crew, according to Rosenthal.
In addition to the previously listed Twins and Brewers, the Dodgers and the Phillies are still targeting starters in the wake of the Darvish deal, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Philadelphia is aggressively pursuing a short-term addition, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas are all possibilities, Feinsand adds.
Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) has mixed feelings on the Darvish pact. While it “appears to be a bargain salary,” Law has reservations about the length, contending that it’s one or two years too long, and he doesn’t regard Darvish “a pure ace.” Darvish has become too reliant on his cutter and not reliant enough on his slider, which has led to vulnerability against left-handed hitters, Law observes. However, Darvish may have “some untapped potential right now” if he leans more on his slider, per Law, who at least sees him as a significant near-term upgrade for the Cubs.

NL East Notes: Mets, Cole, Jay, Braves

By Jeff Todd | February 8, 2018 at 5:06pm CDT

As the Mets have now managed to check off their most pressing needs at fairly reasonable prices, some attention has turned to the question whether the organization might now go on to spend on a starter. GM Sandy Alderson noted that “some opportunities arose for us that probably would not have been expected right after the end of the World Series,” as James Wagner of the New York Times reports. Given the noted health questions for the talented Mets pitching staff, the thinking goes, perhaps the team will look to score some rotation value and thrust itself into clear contention status. To this point, though, the Mets “have yet to engage in meaningful discussions” with free agent hurlers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Rather, the focus seems still to be on finding some pitching depth.

Headlines

Alex Cobb

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect