Anthony Rendon

MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?

By TC Zencka | March 2, 2019 at 12:27pm CDT

Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.

Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.

Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.

The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.

The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.

Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.

Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.

Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.

Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.”

Goldschmidt poll link for app users.

Rendon poll link for app users.

Will the Cards sign Goldschmidt to an extension?

Yes, for a lower AAV than Arenado. 58.53% (4,027 votes)

No, he'll make it to free agency. 28.26% (1,944 votes)

Yes, for a higher AAV than Arenado. 13.21% (909 votes)

Total Votes: 6,880

Will the Nats sign Rendon to an extension?

Yes, for a lower AAV than Arenado. 57.42% (3,290 votes)

No, he'll make it to free agency. 36.25% (2,077 votes)

Yes, for a higher AAV than Arenado. 6.34% (363 votes)

Total Votes: 5,730

NL East Notes: Braves, Kimbrel, Nationals, Harper, Mets

By Mark Polishuk | March 1, 2019 at 5:45pm CDT

While it’s still pretty early in Spring Training, the Braves have already been hit with a notable number of players battling injury issues. Jeff Schultz of The Athletic (links to Twitter) has a rundown of today’s updates, including the worrisome news that A.J. Minter left today’s outing after just one batter due to shoulder tightness. Beyond Minter, Dansby Swanson was scratched from today’s lineup due to continued soreness in his left wrist. The Braves also continue to ease Josh Donaldson into action after Donaldson missed much of the 2018 season due to a calf injury. Donaldson’s spring debut may still be at least “a couple of more days” away, as Atlanta manager Brian Snitker told reporters, though Snitker admitted “I don’t even know when he’s gonna play.”

The Braves already have Mike Soroka, Kevin Gausman, and Luiz Gohara dealing with shoulder soreness, while Mike Foltynewicz missed a recent start due to a sore elbow. With the possible exception of Soroka, none of these maladies seem overly concerning yet, though the sheer volume leads to inevitable speculation about how the Braves could make additions to bolster their roster of arms. Minter’s injury could be of particular import, given how the back end of Atlanta’s bullpen already has closer Arodys Vizcaino trying to bounce back from an injury-marred 2018. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes that the Braves have yet to have “any serious discussions” with former closer Craig Kimbrel, who is still focused on landing a long-term contract while the team has only thus far been open to signing Kimbrel to a shorter-term pact.

The latest from around the NL East…

Speaking of Kimbrel, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) hears from rival evaluators who wonder if the Nationals could make a play for the star closer. Washington is no stranger to high-profile bullpen signings, and while Sean Doolittle has pitched very well as the team’s closer, Doolittle has had his share of injury problems over the years. Inking Kimbrel would put the Nationals over the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and if ownership had reluctance over paying a higher tax bill, the Nats might have to move some salary in order to fit Kimbrel into the mix. Signing a free agent who rejected the qualifying offer (as Kimbrel did) would also cost the Nats its third- and sixth-highest picks in the 2019 draft. As Olney notes, the Nationals might not mind surrendering even more picks in order to make a real splurge, as the team has already lost its second- and fifth-highest draft selections (plus $1MM of international draft pool money) by signing another QO free agent in Patrick Corbin.
Deferred money has long been a staple of the Nationals’ contract negotiations, as several notable players (i.e. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Brian Dozier) in recent years have signed deals with the team that include significant amounts of salary to be paid out over long stretches of time. Scherzer’s deal contains $105MM in deferred money, for example, while Strasburg’s $175MM extension with the Nats contained $70MM in deferrals that will be paid out to Strasburg from 2024-30. While Scherzer, Strasburg, and Bryce Harper are all represented by Scott Boras, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post wonders if the Nationals’ deferral-heavy strategy might have cost them a chance at Harper. Roughly a third of Washington’s reported ten-year, $300MM offer to Harper last fall was reportedly set to be paid out in deferred money for decades to come, possibly until Harper was close to 60 years old. This type of long-term payment isn’t something that appeals to every player, making Svrluga wonder if Anthony Rendon would be comfortable with deferred money as the star third baseman continues his own extension talks with the Nationals.
The Mets have hired Rafael Perez the team’s director of international operations and Luis Marquez as their new director of international scouting, Jacob Resnick and Michael Mayer of @Metsmerized report (via Twitter). Perez is a familiar name in New York’s front office, as he is returning to the same position he previously filled from 2005-11. Marquez also previously worked for the Mets as an international scout from 2008-11.

Anthony Rendon Open To Extension Talks During Season

By Jeff Todd | February 20, 2019 at 3:01pm CDT

Anthony Rendon said today that he isn’t putting any deadlines on extension talks with the Nationals, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report.

Emphasizing that he’s the boss in his relationship with agent Scott Boras, Rendon said he’s ready to listen to offers at any time of the year. He doesn’t expect contract talks to become a distraction if they drag into the season, but says that “if it does become an issue, then I’ll address it.”

Surely the preference on all sides would be to wrap something up during camp, but it seems there’s still a gulf to be bridged in terms of price. Rendon has, not unjustifiably, staked out a high asking price. He declined to get into details, telling reporters he’d rather leave them guessing, but did acknowledge ongoing chatter. Said Rendon: “if both parties can be happy, then we’ll see.”

Rendon’s stance, then, generally echoes that of fellow star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is exploring the possibility of a long-term deal with the Rockies. It’s interesting to wonder whether those parallel extension negotiations could influence one another, both because the players are similarly valuable on the field and because the presence or absence of one on next winter’s market could significantly impact the earning outlook for the other.

These players have surely taken note of Manny Machado’s recent payday in considering their own possible free agent futures. Of course, both Rendon and Arenado are on track to enter the market at significantly older (but still youthful) ages, but each has an argument to command an average salary in the range of Machado’s $30MM. We examined Rendon’s extension case at the outset of the offseason.

Quick Hits: Arenado, Int’l Prospects, Jones, CarGo, Bauer, Storen, Marlins

By Mark Polishuk | February 11, 2019 at 12:11am CDT

Nolan Arenado’s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal. Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear. (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.) More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.

Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…

Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2. Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports. Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball. That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
Trevor Bauer’s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome. There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary. This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season. Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason. He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link). Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017. The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners. Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017. Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
“Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies. These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.

NL East Notes: Nola, Markakis, Marlins, Braves, Nats

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2019 at 12:18pm CDT

The Phillies and Aaron Nola have not had any “substantive” discussions regarding a long-term contract extension, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic in a much broader exploration of Nola’s contractual status and pending arbitration case (subscription required). The two sides are facing a $2.25MM gap between the $4.5MM at which the Phillies filed and the $6.75MM at which Nola and Paragon Sports filed.

A hearing is set for Feb. 14, and with no real talks on a multi-year deal taking place to this point, it seems all the likelier that Nola’s case will be resolved in front of an arbitration panel. There’s no immediate urgency for the Phillies to lock Nola up to a long-term contract, and it’s certainly possible that the right-hander’s preference is simply to go year-to-year through arbitration until reaching free agency upon completion of the 2021 season. Both Nola and Yankees right-hander Luis Severino are important cases for future first-time-eligible starters in arbitration; with the exception of Dallas Keuchel (who is anomalous, having entered arbitration fresh off a Cy Young win), no first-time starter has topped the $4.35MM that Dontrelle Willis received way back in 2006. It’s a stunningly outdated number, and arb victories for Nola and/or Severino would help move the needle forward for future starting pitchers.

NL East Rumors: Rendon, deGrom, Straily

By Steve Adams | January 14, 2019 at 10:06am CDT

It’s well known that the Nationals hope to work out a long-term deal with third baseman Anthony Rendon before he reaches free agency next winter, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote over the weekend (subscription required) that Rendon and agent Scott Boras have been eyeing something in the vicinity of Jose Altuve’s extension from a year ago. Altuve was already under contract for two years and $12.5MM at the time he signed for an additional five years and $151MM, which brought his current contract to a total of $163.5MM over seven years. The Nats are already just a few million dollars shy of the luxury tax threshold, and bumping Rendon’s annual value from the reported $18.8MM figure to which he agreed on Friday would likely take them over the limit. The Nats have been willing to exceed that threshold for Bryce Harper, however, and perhaps the allure of keeping Rendon from reaching the open market would be incentive enough to do the same. As Rosenthal explores, the two situations are also somewhat related, as fitting both players onto the payroll would come with luxury repercussions — even when factoring in the likely stream of subsequent moves that would follow a new contract for Harper (e.g. trading a current outfielder).

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Anthony Rendon

By Jeff Todd | January 11, 2019 at 6:50pm CDT

The Nationals have avoided arbitration with star third baseman Anthony Rendon, the club announced. It’ll be a $18.8MM payday for Rendon, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link).

Rendon had been projected to earn $17.6MM in his final season of arb eligibility. Instead, he’ll top that mark by a decent bit, landing a healthy $6.5MM raise over his 2018 salary.

Of course, this may only be a prelude to a much larger contract. There have been indications all winter long that the sides are engaged in extension talks. Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported (subscription link) that Rendon is looking for a deal on the order of the $163.5MM pact the Astros agreed to with Jose Altuve last year.

NL Rumors: Realmuto, Mets, Marlins, Pads, Myers, Bucs, D-backs, Rendon

By Connor Byrne | December 13, 2018 at 9:03pm CDT

The Mets’ ongoing pursuit of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has dominated headlines this week, and Tim Healey of Newsday sheds more light on the teams’ talks. While the Marlins are interested in all three of Amed Rosario, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto and reportedly want more than one of those players for Realmuto, it doesn’t seem that’s going to happen, per Healey. Rather, only one member of that trio – likely Nimmo or Conforto – would headline Miami’s return, according to Healey, who adds that the Marlins also like Mets infield prospects Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos. All three of those players rank among the Mets’ top prospects, with MLB.com placing Gimenez first, Mauricio sixth and Vientos eighth.

Whether via trade or free agency, the Padres will “absolutely” acquire a third baseman this offseason, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays. Picking up hot corner help is the club’s No. 1 priority, Cassavell offers, as corner infielder/outfielder Wil Myers isn’t an ideal fit there, main 2018 starter Christian Villanueva immigrated to Japan and the Padres released Cory Spangenberg. But if Myers isn’t going to play third, it further calls into question what the Padres will do with him this offseason. San Diego is committed to Eric Hosmer at first base and has a host of of other outfielders, after all, and Myers has come up in recent trade speculation. However, despite Myers’ so-so production from 2017-18 and the remaining $64MM on his contract, it seems the Padres remain bullish on him. Indeed, they’re not going to trade Myers for anything but “the right offer,” Cassavell notes. His presence may make one or more of his fellow Padres outfielders expendable, though Cassavell suggests it’s no sure thing they’ll trade anyone from the group.
Having lost Jordy Mercer in free agency, the Pirates have spoken to the Diamondbacks about shortstop Nick Ahmed this week, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports. The defensively adept Ahmed, 28, is coming off a career-best offensive season, albeit one in which he still hit just .234/.290/.411 (84 wRC+) in 564 plate appearances. He’s under control for two more years and will make a projected $3.1MM in 2019. That would be an affordable sum for Pittsburgh, but Berry explains that the team’s content to roll with in-house shortops Erik Gonzalez and Kevin Newman if it doesn’t land Ahmed or another veteran option.
It’s well-documented that the Nationals could lose one of their elite players, outfielder Bryce Harper, to free agency this year. And the team may be in a similar position 12 months from now if third baseman Anthony Rendon, who’s entering a contract year, doesn’t sign an extension. However, general manager Mike Rizzo is optimistic the Nationals will prevent Rendon from leaving, Jamal Collier of MLB.com writes. “I think Anthony wants to be here, I think he wants to be here long term,” Rizzo said. “And we want him here. Hopefully there’s a deal that transpires out of goodwill between the two sides.” According to agent Scott Boras (also Harper’s representative), Washington’s “very aware” of what it has in Rendon, who has “been in the top 10 players in the game in the last three or four years.” Boras is always one to talk up his clients, but he’s not exaggerating in Rendon’s case, as the 28-year-old ranks seventh among position players in fWAR (17.3) dating back to 2016.

Nationals Notes: Rendon, Harper, First Base

By Mark Polishuk | December 10, 2018 at 8:21pm CDT

The Nationals have made multiple extension offers to third baseman Anthony Rendon, GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com), with Rizzo noting that both sides have interest in a long-term deal. Rendon is entering the final year of his contract, and he put himself in line for a major payday after his strong numbers in 2017-18. Extending Rendon would add yet another big contract on the Nationals’ long-term books, and between locking up Rendon and signing Patrick Corbin to a six-year, $140MM pact, it would seem that Washington could be pricing itself out of Bryce Harper’s market. More on that and other Nats-related topics here…

After Nationals managing principal owner Mark Lerner recently commented that the team’s ten-year, $300MM offer to Harper would be its best and final offer for the star outfielder, Scott Boras (Harper’s agent) was in touch with the team expressing concern about Lerner’s statement, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports. Specifically, Boras had some dismay that Lerner had violated league rules about how teams can publicly discuss contract talks with players, though Boras hadn’t contacted the MLBPA about the situation. Janes outlines how Lerner’s statement didn’t technically breach the rule, though “even those within the Nationals organization were a little surprised to see their new controlling owner speak with such candor.” Regardless of what has or hasn’t been said, however, Boras said on Monday that his negotiations about Harper and the Nats will be with family patriarch Ted Lerner, a relationship that has paved the way for many Boras client to land in Washington over the years.
The Nationals are looking for a first base complement to Ryan Zimmerman that is also capable of playing second base, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman writes. This player would spell Zimmerman occasionally or take over at first base entirely if Zimmerman was injured, while under normal circumstances playing second base a few times per week (with Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo also being in the mix). Zuckerman speculates on a few names that would fit this description, ranging from Marwin Gonzalez to less-pricey options like Daniel Descalso, Neil Walker, Derek Dietrich, or Yangervis Solarte.

NL East Notes: Nats, Rendon, Suzuki, Mets, Ramos

By Connor Byrne | December 2, 2018 at 12:40pm CDT

Nationals superstar Anthony Rendon is slated to enter a contract year in 2019, but he told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post and other reporters Sunday that he’s “up for” signing an extension. The third baseman revealed that he and the Nats have been discussing an extension for a year, adding that while he hopes to remain in Washington, he’d be content to enter next season without a new contract. The 28-year-old Rendon continued to make a case for a mega-deal in 2018, as he finished top 10 in both position player fWAR (eighth) and wRC+ (10th).

Here’s more from Washington and one of its division rivals:

The Mets are hesitant to go after ex-Nat Wilson Ramos, one of the top two free-agent catchers available, because of concerns over his defense and injury issues, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. New York’s “prioritizing” behind-the-plate defense and putting an extra emphasis on pitch framing, Puma adds. Baseball Prospectus has typically awarded Ramos positive pitch-framing and defense marks, though going by its Fielding Runs Above Average metric, he has been a scratch or minus defender for three straight seasons. Ramos has also torn his right ACL twice, including in 2016, which limited him to 64 games in 2017 as he worked his way back. However, Ramos did catch 96 games last season – 92 more than oft-injured Mets backstop Travis d’Arnaud, whom they tendered a contract Friday. Of course, Ramos is sure to require a pricey multiyear commitment, whereas d’Arnaud’s essentially set to play under a one-year deal worth a projected $3.7M.
Keith Law of ESPN (subscription link) applauds Washington’s acquisition of catcher Yan Gomes from Cleveland, writing that the Nationals made a sizable improvement behind the plate without surrendering much. Having Gomes instead of 2018 starter Matt Wieters as their primary catcher could mean at least a four-win upgrade next year, Law posits. Law goes on to assess outfielder Daniel Johnson and right-hander Jefry Rodriguez – whom the Indians received for Gomes – in detail, noting that the former just endured a disappointing, injury-shortened season and the latter may only max out as a righty specialist in the majors. But Law explains that there’s hope for Indians catcher Eric Haase, who may succeed Gomes as their main backstop.
Between Gomes and free-agent signing Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have made a pair of noteworthy additions at catcher in the past couple weeks. Although, as Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post notes, it’s not yet clear how the Nats will divvy up playing time between the two next season. GM Mike Rizzo suggested Saturday that he’d leave it up to manager Dave Martinez, who declared that “they’re both going to split time.” Rizzo added that Suzuki could see action at first base, where he has never appeared in a major league game. Regardless, Suzuki’s “totally on board” with the Gomes pickup, per Rizzo.

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