Discussion: Rich Harden
Rich Harden carries a lot of upside for a Type B free agent. His well-documented injury history will prevent any club from risking offering the right-hander a long-term contract, but a one or two-year deal (perhaps with the second year as a club option, that could become guaranteed if Harden reaches certain performance levels) in the high seven-figure range per season could prove to be a relative bargain. Harden might be amenable to such a deal since it would allow him to cash in on an even bigger contract after the 2011 season when he's just 29 years old.
Harden only pitched past the sixth inning in five of his 26 starts last season as the Cubs wanted to keep him as fresh as possible. The Canadian was skipped for two September starts and spent a month on the disabled list with a strained back, but given the major arm problems that have plagued his career, this actually counts as a fairly healthy showing for the right-hander. Harden recorded an impressive 10.9 K/9 last season, and posted a 2.07 ERA in 25 starts with Chicago and Oakland in 2008.
The Cubs aren't likely to try and re-sign Harden themselves, thus leaving the door open for suitors who are willing to take the risk — and, probably more importantly, also have the financial resources to absorb the loss should Harden not pan out. The Red Sox fit this description to a tee, and unlike last winter's similar buy-low signings of Brad Penny or John Smoltz, Harden has experience pitching in the American League.
What teams do you think will make a play for Harden, and, if your favorite team was the one making the offer, what would be the sort of contract and dollar figure you'd be comfortable seeing Harden in the fold for?
Giants Rumors: Lincecum, Sanchez, Penny
Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News has the goods on the Giants, after speaking with GM Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy.
- Technically, Sabean and Bochy's contracts are up at the end of the month. They don't have commitments for 2010 in hand, yet the expectation is that both will be back.
- In discussing Tim Lincecum's upcoming arbitration case, Sabean referenced Ryan Howard's record first-time award ($10MM) from February of '08. Of course, with Howard, the Phillies screwed up by submitting only $7MM. Sabean wants to file his salary request for Lincecum before discussing a long-term deal, so as to not show his hand early.
- Closer Brian Wilson is another first-time arbitration-eligible player, and you have to think he'll jump up to $5MM+.
- The Giants would like to restructure Freddy Sanchez's $8.1MM option into a two-year deal, but seem confident in his return. Baggarly says they even consider the option as a fallback if the restructuring fails. I can't see Sanchez getting $8.1MM on the open market.
- A Brad Penny return appears unlikely. If he sticks to the NL and the West Coast he'll be down to the Padres pretty much. It'd also be surprising to see the Giants re-sign catcher Bengie Molina, who wants a two-year deal worth more than $6MM annually.
- Sabean wouldn't rule out trading a pitcher for a bat, but said he'd agonize over such a decision.
- Brandon Medders, Justin Miller, and Ryan Garko are non-tender candidates. The Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner call-ups locked up two 40-man roster spots.
- Quoting Baggarly: Sabean justified the $18.5 million contract he gave [Edgar Renteria] last winter by saying they needed a veteran shortstop."
Brad Penny Reflects On Time With Giants
Brad Penny was greeted rudely by the American League this year, but he pitched well in four of five starts for the Giants after being released by the Red Sox in late August. Penny had kind words for the Giants, speaking to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. Penny's thoughts on re-signing with San Francisco:
"We'll see. I've loved it here, but I haven't thought about next year yet."
Baggarly notes that Penny does prefer to pitch for a West Coast team. A return to the Dodgers is presumably out, so if Penny wants to stay in the NL and sticks to his geographic preference he's looking at the Giants or Padres. Baggarly senses Penny will "let market forces determine his fate." Despite a 5.15 ERA in 164.3 innings this year, Penny remains intriguing and will be guaranteed millions. With a 94.0 mph average fastball velocity this year, he's easily the hardest-throwing free agent starter.
Stark On Free Agent Pitchers
"I don't think there's one pitcher in this entire group I'd invest a lot of money in. Not one," said one general manager to ESPN's Jayson Stark. This year's collection of free agent pitchers doesn't have the star power that last year's CC Sabathia highlighted crop had, or that next year's group led by Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee will have, but there will still be plenty of money thrown around.
As Stark explains, club officials seem to be down on available starters this year, describing them as "risky," "weak," "terrible," and "mediocre" among other things. One AL executive said that "There are some guys in this group who are dependable. Except they're dependable to give you 5.00 ERAs and 180 innings. And that's not what you want to build a staff around."
Regardless, Stark ranks the top ten starting pitching options in this year's free agent class. Here's a roundup of his list, with quotes from various sources…
- John Lackey: "He's the best name on the list," one exec said. "But if Anaheim shies away from this guy or doesn't make a serious attempt to sign him, I'd have concerns. They know him better than everyone else. So that would send out some serious red flags for me."
- Randy Wolf: He's "durable, dependable and left-handed," one GM said. And he's also "two 190-plus-inning seasons removed from any health issues."
- Joel Piniero: One GM said "I'd have interest in Pineiro, but I'd never invest multi-years in that guy. Just too inconsistent a track record."
- Jason Marquis: "He's having a great year," said an official of one team. "But I'm just not sure how to look at it. Was this a turning point in his career? Or do you look at it as somebody who turned it up and figured it out when he had the most to gain? I really don't know."
- Rich Harden: "I'd be scared to death to commit years to this guy," one AL exec said. "He's been used kind of like Pedro [Martinez] was used in the past, where they're always trying to build in an extra day's rest. And he's just a five-inning guy, in the National League. He might strike out 10, but he'll only go five innings, so he still kills your 'pen. He'll get some money. I just don't see anybody giving him more than a year."
- Andy Pettitte: One exec described his situation as "will probably either stay in New York or shut it down."
- Jarrod Washburn: One GM said, "he's 35 years old, and [before this year] his last winning season was [2004]."
- Jon Garland: "He doesn't have the stuff the other guys on this list have, but he's proven he's durable, and durability counts," said an official of one team. "It's like they say in golf: Most putts that you hit short don't go in. Well, most pitchers that don't make a start don't win. This guy at least makes his starts."
- Doug Davis: "Made for the NL West."
- Brad Penny: An executive said "He's the kind of guy who, if you give him a multiyear deal, he'll crush your franchise. Is somebody going to sign him for four years and expect 120 starts? Good luck."
Stark also names several players he calls "X-Factors," which are guys who could enter the market with major question marks. Included in this group are Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Brett Myers, and Vicente Padilla. We could even add Chien-Ming Wang's name to that list.
Odds & Ends: Bumgarner, Rangers, Kim
Links for Tuesday…
- Giants top pitching prospect Madison Bumgarner surprisingly gets the big league call today, says John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. The bad news: Cy Young contender Tim Lincecum is out with back spasms.
- Evan Grant of D Magazine shows how little the Rangers got out of the 2002-05 drafts (including the "DVD" trio), yet they had the game's best farm system coming into the season.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo has the reverse standings, which give an idea of the 2010 draft order.
- Eddie Bajek looks at various scenarios where Placido Polanco could ascend to Type A status. It's a good reminder on how the Elias rankings come together.
- Tigers owner Mike Ilitch is behind the decision to let Magglio Ordonez's 2010 option vest, believes John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press.
- Former Dodgers GM Fred Claire finds the upcoming free agent class lacking in depth.
- East Windup Chronicle passes along a report suggesting Byung-Hyun Kim wants to make a comeback. Is he still represented by Scott Boras?
- Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee feels the team can win in 2010 with the same group, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune considers possible moves for next year.
- Brad Penny had a strong preference to pitch in the NL, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Twins players Mike Redmond and Carl Pavano lobbied Penny directly.
- Ben Kabak of River Ave. Blues expresses concern that Derek Jeter's next contract could approach $100MM.
Williams Discusses Thome and Contreras Trades
ESPN's Peter Gammons has a long-awaited interview with White Sox GM Ken Williams about the trades that sent Jim Thome and Jose Contreras packing. Williams argues that the trades did not amount to "a raising of the white flag" and says he was trying "to do right by players who certainly did right by us."
Williams says that he assured Thome that he would not be traded against his wishes. "He told me he was more interested in winning another ring than hitting 600 homers," the GM said. "We wanted to accomodate [him] so that he could finish the season the way he wanted."
Regarding Contreras, Williams says that manager Ozzie Guillen was not planning to start the pitcher down the stretch. "I thought this was a way to give him the opportunity to start and rebuild his value in the free-agent market," Williams said.
According to Gammons, Rockies manager Jim Tracy, who "dealt with" Brad Penny when both were with the Dodgers, did not want the veteran starter on his staff although GM Dan O'Dowd had interest. So, O'Dowd turned to the White Sox for the starter he needed.
Rosenthal On Cameron, Penny, Dye
Time for a look at the latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…
- The Yankees and Brewers discussed a Mike Cameron trade (again) in August, but never came close to a deal. We learned earlier today from ESPN's Jayson Stark that the Marlins were also interested. Cameron, however, hopes to remain with the Brewers past this season.
- The Yankees had "serious interest" in Brad Penny as well, but the big righty preferred the NL and the Giants' ballpark. Penny recently said he'd be willing to return to the AL East, but the smart money's on him signing in the NL after the season.
- Rosenthal learned that Jermaine Dye had the right to convert his $12MM mutual option into a player option if traded. That was probably one of several reasons the Giants did not pursue him. We learned from Stark that the White Sox "wanted something good" for Dye.
- Rosenthal expects Astros manager Cecil Cooper to be fired even though he's under contract through next year. He believes former Phillies manager Jim Fregosi could be a candidate to replace him.
Stark On Lackey, Rays, Jeter
More from Jayson Stark's Rumblings and Grumblings column at ESPN.com…
- One of Stark's sources says the Angels' acquisition of Scott Kazmir is not linked to John Lackey's future. Lackey is said to have dropped his price from the C.C. Sabathia range ($161MM over seven years) to A.J. Burnett money ($82.5MM over five years) due to his recent injury history. The Angels will attempt to re-sign Lackey, but they have their limit. Stark's suggestion that Lackey had a "Sabathia-esque" price tag in Spring Training runs counter to Mike DiGiovanna's report that the pitcher wanted Burnett money at that time.
- Stark feels that the Rays' trade of Kazmir will help them allocate money toward retaining Carl Crawford and/or Carlos Pena. Crawford's 2010 club option is worth between $10-11.5MM. Pena is signed at $10.125MM for '10 and is represented by Scott Boras. One positive: the slugging first baseman inked a below-market deal in January of '08.
- Derek Jeter is not talking about his next contract, but Stark feels the Yankees will take care of him. They may wait until after next season, when Jeter finishes his current deal.
- Rockies manager Jim Tracy is familiar with Brad Penny, and his opinion might have caused the team to back off. And the Yankees cooled Jon Garland because they didn't see him as a difference-maker in the AL East.
- The Marlins were in on Mike Cameron, but the Brewers decided to keep their players and win as many games as possible.
- The White Sox "wanted something good" for Jermaine Dye, according to one Stark source. He would not have been as easy to pry away as Jim Thome and Jose Contreras were.
- A couple of sources are skeptical that the Red Sox will shop closer Jonathan Papelbon this winter.
- Stark notes that only two players – Ryan Franklin and David Eckstein – signed extensions in-season. These days it makes more sense to talk during the exclusive negotiation period after the season. Plus, there were many bargains to be had on the free agent market last offseason.
Giants Rumors: Penny, Molina, Posey
The latest on the Giants, who trail the Wild Card-leading Rockies by just a game:
- Brad Penny gave the Giants more than they could have expected in his return to the NL, as Dan Gelston of the AP notes (via the Miami Herald).
- ESPN.com's Keith Law would like to see the Giants play Buster Posey enough down the stretch to prepare him for a starting role in 2010. They could then let Bengie Molina walk and spend on another bat.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle wonders if the Giants are trying to "light a fire" under Bengie Molina.
Odds & Ends: Posey, Maybin, Penny
Links for Wednesday…
- Due to Bengie Molina's injury, the Giants have changed their mind and called up top prospect Buster Posey according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. So Posey's clock starts earlier than planned.
- Speaking of service time, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith tells me Cameron Maybin's call-up gives him 129 days of service time after this year. That puts him on the fringe of Super Two status after the 2011 season.
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick ranks the impact of trades made by contenders in July. He talked to an exec who thinks Matt Holliday "could make an extra $3MM a year as a free agent this winter because of his strong finish."
- Yahoo's Gordon Edes has his trade deadline winners and losers.
- Ryan Doumit's agent Matt Sosnick shot down recent negativity surrounding his client, while Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette gets to the bottom of the catcher's recent benching.
- Brad Penny still hates the Dodgers, a team he'll face twice this month according to Baggarly. Baggarly also has a quote from Penny ripping on the Marlins.
- Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has more from Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy, who knows he gained trade value when the team delayed his free agency.
- J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics wonders whether the Braves should pick up Tim Hudson's $12MM option for 2010. Hudson has the right to void that option, not that he would. Back in January Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said the Braves "fully intend to exercise it, barring some unexpected turn of events."
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs notes that Kendry Morales has matched the production of the Angels' former first baseman, $180MM man Mark Teixeira.
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has comments from Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes on the team's Jon Rauch–Kevin Mulvey swap. Piecoro says the D'Backs have about $23MM to work with this winter as they presumably look to add pitching.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times guesses Ken Griffey Jr. will retire after this season.