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Rockies’ Brendan Rodgers, Lucas Gilbreath Could Require Surgery

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2:13pm: The first opinion Rodgers received on his shoulder recommended surgery that would likely end his season, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s seeking a second opinion. If Rodgers is lost for the season, Heyman adds, the team would likely replace him internally rather than pursue a free agent such as Jose Iglesias, who spent the 2022 season with the Rox.

10:55am: Rockies fans received a pair of disappointing health updates today, as both second baseman Brendan Rodgers and reliever Lucas Gilbreath could require season-ending surgery. Rodgers, who dislocated his shoulder, earlier this week, has sustained “more damage than expected” to the shoulder capsule, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Harding notes that while no decision has been made yet, the possible surgery could threaten Rodgers’s 2023 season. As for Gilbreath, Harding reports that the lefty has undergone an MRI and describes Tommy John surgery as “likely”, though Gilbreath noted to Harding that he and the organization are still “looking into different options.”

Rodgers, 26, is coming off a breakout season of sorts where despite his .266/.325/.408 slash line leading to a below-average 92 wRC+, his work with the glove earned him a Gold Glove and contributed to a bWAR of 4.3. Rodgers was set to be the everyday second baseman in Colorado this season, and seemed likely to be one of the most valuable players on the club this season, as he was in 2021 when the aforementioned 4.3 bWAR figure led the team, with Ryan McMahon’s 3.1 figure coming in second among position players.

Gilbreath, meanwhile, was set to enter his age-27 season as one of the most reliable relievers in the Rockies bullpen. Gilbreath pitched very well over the past two seasons for a hurler who calls Coors Field his home ballpark, posting a 3.78 ERA (126 ERA+) and 3.92 FIP over the past two seasons, though those results come with a significant platoon split, as he dominated southpaws while struggling against righties. Should he undergo Tommy John surgery as expected, Gilbreath will surely miss not only all of the 2023 season, but the beginning of the 2024 season as well.

Should the club lose both players for the 2023 season, Colorado’s already slim hopes of contention (ZiPS gives the club playoff odds of just 0.1% entering the 2023 season, the lowest of all 30 clubs) will become even murkier. Assuming losing Gilbreath doesn’t spur the Rockies, who signed just two free agents to major league deals for a combined $8.5MM guarantee this offseason, to spend on a replacement lefty such as Zack Britton, Will Smith, or Brad Hand, the club will instead go into the season with Brent Suter as the bullpen’s primary left-handed option, and a depth option such as Gavin Hollowell or Phillips Valdez will take Gilbreath’s spot in the bullpen.

In looking to replace Rodgers, the first decision Rockies brass must make is whether or not to move Ryan McMahon, a top-tier defender at third base who also has experience at second, over to the keystone. If they do so, either Nolan Jones or Kris Bryant has ample experience at third base and could slot into the lineup at the hot corner with relative ease, though neither player brings anything close to McMahon’s defensive abilities at the position. Should the club feel McMahon’s defensive abilities at third are too valuable to lose, the options at second base are far less inspiring, with Alan Trejo representing the most likely option on the 40-man roster, while other possible options include non-roster invitees Harold Castro and Cole Tucker.

Rodgers was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, and will make $2.7MM in 2023. Rodgers will be arb eligible again for two more seasons before he’s expected to hit free agency following the 2025 season. Gilbreath, but as a likely Super Two candidate, is expected to reach arbitration this coming offseason, and is controllable through the end of the 2027 season. If Gilbreath is indeed out for the season, whatever raise he would receive in arbitration this offseason if he does pass the Super Two threshold would be negligible, limiting the risk of a non-tender this offseason.

Brendan Rodgers Dislocates Left Shoulder

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Rockies second baseman Brendan Rodgers dislocated his left shoulder during today’s Cactus League matchup with the Rangers, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). The injury occurred in the first inning when Rodgers dove to knock down a Robbie Grossman grounder.

While a trainer popped the shoulder back into place on the field, Rodgers was immediately replaced by Cole Tucker. The severity of the injury isn’t yet known, though it’s clear he’ll miss at least a notable chunk of Spring Training. “We’ll likely know more what his status is in the coming day,” Black told reporters after the game. “The degree of trauma in the joint will determine how long he’s out. Hopefully, the trauma to the shoulder capsule is not too bad and he’s only out a few weeks.”

That an absence of a few weeks seems to be the best-case scenario puts Rodgers’ availability for Opening Day in jeopardy. Black likened the injury to one suffered by Colorado center fielder Yonathan Daza last summer. Daza was placed on the injured list on August 12 and reinstated on September 6. If Rodgers only misses a similar three-to-four week stretch, he could avoid an IL stint to start the season. That’d seemingly require a smooth recovery process without any serious damage, and even an ideal situation involves Rodgers missing a number of planned at-bats as players spend the next month getting reacclimated to game speed.

To the extent there’s a silver lining, it’s that the injury occurred to his non-throwing shoulder. During his 2019 rookie season, Rodgers underwent season-ending surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right shoulder. He also lost a few weeks during the abbreviated 2020 campaign to a capsular strain in his right shoulder. Today’s injury, at least, wasn’t to that previously troublesome joint.

It’s nevertheless a disappointing start to the upcoming season for the 26-year-old. He’s had stints on the IL in all four of his big league campaigns thus far thanks to right shoulder and hamstring concerns. Rodgers did appear in a personal-high 137 games last season, hitting .266/.325/.408 with 13 home runs, 30 doubles and a career-low 17.4% strikeout rate. After some initial struggles against big league pitching, he’s hit at a near average level the past couple seasons. Rodgers also rated favorably for his defense last year, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him a massive 22 runs above average at second base. Statcast and Ultimate Zone Rating weren’t enamored to the same extent but all three metrics agreed he was better than par.

If Rodgers were forced to start the year on the IL, the club could choose from a handful of utility types to step in as his replacement. Alan Trejo might have the leg up considering he’s already on the 40-man roster. Tucker and former Tiger Harold Castro are in camp as non-roster players. Presumptive starting third baseman Ryan McMahon also has ample experience at second base and could move back to the keystone if Colorado wanted to pencil in Nolan Jones or Elehuris Montero at the hot corner. McMahon is an elite defensive third baseman, though, so the Rox might be reluctant to move him off that position for anything more than spot duty.

Rockies Not Anticipating Significant Roster Move For Remainder Of Offseason

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It has been a quiet offseason in Denver. The Rockies have made a few depth acquisitions, primarily on the pitching staff. They re-signed José Ureña to a $3.5MM deal and brought in reliever Pierce Johnson on a $5MM contract. Brent Suter, Connor Seabold and Nick Mears were added via minor trade or waiver claims. The most significant move of the offseason was the surprising acquisition of young left-handed power hitter Nolan Jones for infield prospect Juan Brito back in November.

Despite their lack of free agent activity, it seems the club is mostly content to carry the roster as it stands into Spring Training. General manager Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post this afternoon the group was mostly set (Twitter link). Schmidt added the club would continue to explore potential pitching acquisitions and ways to bolster the depth more broadly, but it seems any further moves will be fairly minor.

That might be disheartening for the Colorado fanbase with the club coming off a 68-94 season, though it wasn’t unforeseeable. Last offseason’s Kris Bryant deal and the club’s series of recent extensions for players like Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Ryan McMahon and Elias Díaz added significant money to the payroll. Colorado entered the offseason with a player payroll at franchise-record levels after accounting for the additional $21MM they”ll owe the Cardinals as part of the Nolan Arenado trade.

With that financial situation, it’s not too surprising the organization mostly sat out free agency. The Rox showed some interest in adding to the starting five and/or bringing in a lefty-hitting outfielder (particularly a center fielder) but seemed eventually priced out of both markets. Perhaps the front office will eventually add a depth arm for the back of the rotation — particularly with Senzatela starting the season on the injured list after tearing his ACL late last summer — but the notable outfield pickup no longer seems to be in the cards.

At the same time, the franchise has again steadfastly refused to entertain any kind of rebuild. For the past few years, Colorado ownership and the front office have maintained faith they have the nucleus of a viable contender and have shown no interest in tearing things down. Reports last month suggested the Rockies were in touch with the Marlins about potentially swapping out second baseman Brendan Rodgers for an immediate MLB starter in Edward Cabrera. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last night that Colorado eventually backed away from that framework.

Without any kind of notable overhaul, it’s difficult to imagine the Rockies finishing any higher than fourth in the NL West during the upcoming season. Colorado has seen some positive developments in the farm system though. The Rockies had four players place on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects this week. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar got a cup of coffee in the majors last fall and looks likely to be the primary shortstop this year. Outfielder Zac Veen, catcher Drew Romo and middle infielder Adael Amador are each further away but could at least be in the mix in the upper minors.

Teams Seeking Infield Help Should Call The Rockies

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Earlier in the offseason, it was reported that Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers was a name discussed in trade talks with the Marlins centering around Miami’s cadre of controllable starting pitchers. The interest from both parties was understandable. The Marlins, deep in both starting pitching prospects and big league starters, are light on position player depth and in dire need of augmentation to the lineup. The Rockies, conversely, have struggled to develop pitching talent but have infield depth both in terms of current big leaguers and MLB-ready prospects. Pitching is a perennial Achilles heel for the Rockies. A trade seems sensible enough on paper.

However, a deal hasn’t come together. Rodgers remains in Denver, and the Marlins continue to discuss their stockpile of arms with teams throughout the league. Perhaps the two parties don’t see eye-to-eye on Rodgers’ value. Perhaps they disagree on the value of Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers.

The lack of an agreement between the two parties doesn’t mean that there’s no sense in a trade of Rodgers. While it’s true that the Rockies needn’t feel any urgency to trade the former No. 3 overall pick, who has three years of club control remaining, that need for pitching still persists. And, at least on paper, Colorado is positioned to withstand the loss of Rodgers.

Beyond the fact that Ryan McMahon can handle third base or second base, the Rockies have prospect Ezequiel Tovar effectively ready for a Major League look. Assuming Tovar handles shortstop and McMahon is comfortable playing either third or second base, the free-agent market offers palatable replacement options if Rodgers were to be subtracted from the infield. Brian Anderson and Josh Harrison are just two free agents who could help fill a short-term void while the Rockies await the development of prospects like Warming Bernabel and Adael Amador, who could be MLB-ready by 2024 or 2025.

The simple fact of the matter is that Colorado isn’t likely to contend in 2023 — not with a deep Padres club and a perennial (albeit somewhat diminished) playoff threat in the Dodgers lurking atop the division. The Giants haven’t necessarily made the type of waves that’ll make them a division contender, but they’re probably a better club now than at the end of the 2022 season after signing Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers (while also losing several key pieces — none bigger than Carlos Rodon). The D-backs are more of a long shot to contend, but they’ve added some veteran help and will graduate no fewer than three high-end prospects to the Majors in 2023 (Gabriel Moreno, Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt).

Bottom line: a contending season for the Rockies is almost impossible to imagine. Rockies fans and certainly their front office/ownership may disagree, but it’s tough to see how the additions of Pierce Johnson and Brent Suter, and the re-signing of Jose Urena dramatically alter the fortunes of a team that finished 68-94 in 2022.

That grim reality doesn’t mean the Rockies should simply sell Rodgers and others with three or fewer years of club control for the highest offer, but Rodgers specifically is in a position where he could perhaps fetch considerable value. The free-agent market this winter featured four star-caliber shortstops, but one of the three (Xander Bogaerts) went to a club (the Padres) that didn’t even have a clear need for a shortstop. Carlos Correa took a bizarre, winding road back to Minneapolis. That signing, plus the Twins’ acquisition of Kyle Farmer, took two viable shortstop options for interested parties and placed them on the same roster. Meanwhile, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson wound up in Philadelphia and Chicago (the north side), respectively. That sequence of events left several clubs in need of middle infield depth standing empty-handed.

Rodgers, 26, isn’t Correa, Bogaerts, Turner or Swanson — or at least he hasn’t been yet. He’s a former No. 3 overall pick and was once one of the sport’s top 15 overall prospects according to multiple outlets, but his performance to this point hasn’t quite justified that hype. Still, he’s in his prime and has three years of control, defensive aptitude at both middle-infield positions and a strong batted-ball profile that could be a portent for further success.

Over the past two seasons, Rodgers has turned in a combined .274/.326/.434 batting line with 28 homers, 51 doubles and six triples in 996 trips to the plate. The fact that he plays his home games at Coors Field means that park- and league-adjusted metrics like wRC+ weight that offensive performance at five percent below league average. Rodgers, indeed, has struggled on the road in his career, but we’ve seen plenty of examples of Rockies players with pronounced home-road splits leaving Denver and finding success elsewhere. There have been myriad studies performed about the manner in which playing home games at altitude can impact performance on the road, but moving out of an at-altitude home field environment can counteract some of those struggles. Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu and others have left the Rockies and gone on to fare well in other cities.

Beyond a generally solid string of results in Colorado, Rodgers possesses an intriguing batted-ball profile. Statcast ranks him well above average in terms of hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected batting average, chase rate and whiff rate. Rodgers doesn’t draw walks in droves, but he also has plus bat-to-ball skills (17.6% strikeout rate), rarely chases off the plate and hits the ball pretty hard (90 mph average exit velo, 45.9% hard-hit rate). It’s fair to wonder whether there’s another offensive gear to be unlocked.

Defensively, Rodgers grades anywhere from above-average to elite. He’s spent the bulk of his big league career at second base, but that’s largely been in deference to Trevor Story. Rodgers posted a mammoth 22 Defensive Runs Saved and 8.0 Ultimate Zone Rating at second base in 2022, and while Statcast’s Outs Above Average took a more measured view, that metric still rated him as three outs better than a standard second baseman. In 220 innings at shortstop, he’s posted decent marks in DRS (1), UZR (1.7) and OAA (-1).

Whether other club view Rodgers as a potential shortstop who’s been blocked at his position or as the high-end second base defender he was in 2022, he has clear value. Rodgers has proven capable of hitting for a solid average and thus delivering a quality OBP (even in spite of pedestrian walk rates). He’s shown some power, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate suggest there could be more in the tank. He agreed to a $2.7MM salary earlier today  — in part, a reflection of injuries that have slowed his accumulation of counting stats. And, he’s controllable through the 2025 season.

All in all, it’s a nice package that other teams surely covet. It’s understandable that the Rockies would be reluctant to part with Rodgers, particularly if they believe it’s possible he’ll take another step forward in 2023. General manager Bill Schmidt was the team’s scouting director when Rodgers was drafted, after all, so it’d be no surprise to hear that Schmidt believed Rodgers hadn’t yet reached his peak.

At the same time, the Rockies are in a tough spot with regard to their pitching staff. German Marquez is entering the final guaranteed season of his contract and just turned in a career-worst showing in 2022. Kyle Freeland responded to his surprising contract extension with 174 2/3 innings of 4.53 ERA ball. Antonio Senzatela will miss the beginning of the season following a ligament tear in his knee, and he’d struggled in the wake of his own extension even prior to that injury. The third, fourth and fifth spots in the Rockies’ rotation are likely to be held down by the aforementioned journeyman Urena, Austin Gomber (5.56 ERA in 124 2/3 innings in 2022) and Ryan Feltner (5.83 ERA in 97 1/3 innings). Pitching reinforcements from the farm don’t appear to be on the horizon.

That said, there are still plenty of teams with middle-infield needs and young pitching to dangle. The Red Sox are one club that comes to mind, but each of the White Sox, Angels, Braves and Orioles could use a second baseman and/or shortstop. Most of those clubs have interesting young pitching to offer in exchange, whether the Rox prefer an immediate rotation option or someone who could join the staff in 2024, when top prospects like Zac Veen, Drew Romo and the previously mentioned Tovar have a better chance at contributing.

Rockies fans and those who’ve followed the team in recent years know that the club doesn’t exactly have a reputation for selling players at peak value (or selling at all). The Rox famously held onto both Story and Jon Gray rather than cashing them in for prospects in their walk years. Gray was lost for nothing after the team declined to make a qualifying offer. Colorado declined to trade either Daniel Bard or C.J. Cron when both were rentals at recent deadlines, instead opting to extend both players. Owner Dick Monfort is fatally optimistic about his club’s chances of winning, and while it’s admirable to continually make win-now moves in the face of long-shot (at best) odds in the division, logically there should come a point where alternate paths need to be considered.

Based on their history, the Rockies probably aren’t going to be particularly amenable to Rodgers offers. Interested teams would need to pay a steep price to pry him away, and doing so would be a bet on his underlying batted-ball profile, his defensive skills and his knack for contact to manifest in a new level of performance. There’s certainly risk, but given the dearth of middle-infield options in free agency and elsewhere on the trade market, there are few other places for teams needing middle infield help to look. The Rockies aren’t going to contend in 2023, and three years of Rodgers could bring them some direly needed young pitching. Someone should make them an offer that even a typically conservative front office/ownership group would have a hard time refusing.

Marlins, Rockies Talked About Trade Involving Edward Cabrera, Brendan Rodgers

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The Marlins boosted their offense yesterday, adding Jean Segura on a two-year, $17MM deal to play third base. Yet it appears they are still looking for hitting, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, and at some stage discussed possible trade scenarios with the Rockies, with Edward Cabrera and Brendan Rodgers the players talked about. It’s not known whether those talks occurred before or after the Segura signing, although it seems probable they came beforehand.

Cabrera, 25 in April, made a solid 14 starts for the Marlins this season, pitching to a 3.01 ERA. He surely benefited from an opponent’s BABIP of just .207, and sure enough advanced metrics such as FIP had him pegged at 4.59. While he did strikeout batters at an above-average 25.8% clip in ’22, his walk rate of 11.3% was below the league average. Nonetheless, it was still a big step forward from a difficult seven starts Cabrera made in 2021 for Miami. Pitching prospects often take a bit of time to settle in at the highest level, and Cabrera is a former top-100 prospect who’s made just 21 big league starts and is yet to reach a full year of service time, so there’s still plenty of time for him to reach his full potential.

The Rockies could certainly use a boost to their rotation, as not one of their projected starting five had an ERA under 4.50 last year, and three finished north of 5.00. Acquiring a young starter like Cabrera would have given them a huge boost in the rotation, particularly over the long term.

The Marlins have been speculated as a possible trade partner for one of their starting pitchers. There were reports at the deadline that the Yankees came close to acquiring Pablo Lopez in a deal involving infielder Gleyber Torres. That didn’t come to fruition, and while it’s not known how far these discussions between the Rockies and Marlins got, it’s interesting to note that it was a similar framework in terms of the Marlins seeking an infielder to headline the return for one of their starting pitchers.

In this case, Rodgers, 26, is a former top-100 prospect himself who had a breakout year in 2022. The bat largely stayed in line with his career numbers, as Rodgers slashed .266/.325/.408 with 13 home runs, but he amassed a staggering 22 Defensive Runs Saved at second base, the second most in all of baseball (behind only Ke’Bryan Hayes). That’s quite the jump forward from the previous year, when Rodgers was worth -5 DRS. That saw Rodgers claim his first Gold Glove award.

The acquisition of Rodgers would have given them arguably one of the best defensive group of infielders in the game, as he would have joined Joey Wendle, Miguel Rojas, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Though it’s worth noting that both Wendle and Rojas have drawn trade interest themselves (Rojas and Wendle).

The exact makeup of a deal, or even how far along in discussions the two teams got, is unknown but it seems unlikely it would have been a straight swap. Rodgers is first year arbitration-eligible and is projected to take home $2.7MM in 2023 (per Matt Swartz’ predictions). He can be controlled for three more seasons, while Cabrera is under control for another six.

Given the signing of Segura, it’d seem unlikely for Miami to seek any more additions in the infield without trading someone away, but they could shift their attention to moving some pitching to get outfield help. The Padres are reportedly open to moving Trent Grisham, while Pittsburgh has reportedly been seeking a top, young starter to headline any deal for Bryan Reynolds, so those two teams as well as a myriad of others could, speculatively, make sense as trade partners for Miami.

MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners

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Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.

Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.

Here are the full list of winners:

American League

Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)

Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)

Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)

Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)

Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)

Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)

Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection

Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)

National League

Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win

Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)

First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)

Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)

Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win

Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)

Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection

Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)

Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection

Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Rockies Promote Ezequiel Tovar, Place Brendan Rodgers on Injured List

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Sep. 22: The Rockies have officially announced Tovar’s promotion. In a corresponding move, infielder Brendan Rodgers will be placed on the 10-day IL with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to September 19. With only 13 games left in Colorado’s schedule, Rodgers may be sidelined for the rest of 2022.

Sep. 21: The Rockies are going to promote shortstop prospect Ezequiel Tovar, according to Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. Tovar is already on the club’s 40-man roster, though the Rockies will need to open a spot for him on the active roster.

Tovar, 21, signed with the Rockies as an international amateur in 2017. He was certainly a notable signing at the time, agreeing to a bonus of $800K, the highest given out by the club that year. But the youngster has increased his stock tremendously in recent years.

Through the end of the 2019 season, he had shown some decent plate discipline but little power. He hit only two long balls over 118 games in rookie ball and A-ball in 2018 and 2019. However, as Baseball America notes in their scouting report on Tovar, he bulked up during the pandemic shutdown in 2020 and has been on a meteoric rise up prospect lists ever since. He began this year in Double-A and played 66 games for the Hartford Yard Goats. In that time, he hit 13 home runs, stole 17 bases and hit .318/.386/.545 for a wRC+ of 153. He was recently promoted to Triple-A but only got into four games before being launched up to the big time.

Tovar already had a strong reputation for his speed, bat-to-ball skills and shortstop defense, which means the development of his power at the plate has the potential to turn him into an all-around superstar. Based on his tremendous breakout, he’s shot up to the #13 slot on Baseball America’s list of top prospects in the league, #28 at MLB Pipeline, #36 at FanGraphs, #25 on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic and #40 at ESPN.

For the Rockies, they have a legitimate opening at shortstop for the first time in a long time. Troy Tulowitzki manned the position from 2006 until his trade in 2015. That was followed by the Trevor Story era, which lasted until he reached free agency just under a year ago. This year, the club signed Jose Iglesias to take over, but only on a one-year deal. He’s been on the IL the past few weeks, with utility player Alan Trejo taking over. Tovar will have the last few weeks of the season to show the Colorado brass how he handles the big leagues, with the possibility of cementing himself as the shortstop of the future. Though the club is well out of contention at this point of the season, the chance to see what Tovar can bring to the table will give Colorado fans something to watch as the season winds down.

If Tovar can indeed earn himself a permanent spot with the big league club, there could be some domino effects. There’s not enough time remaining in the season for Tovar to get to 130 at-bats, meaning he will hang onto rookie/prospect status into the offseason. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, players with less than 60 days of service who appear among two preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline can net their team a bonus amateur draft choice based on their early-career finishes in awards voting, so long as their club carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year. If Tovar can get himself a Rookie of the Year award or some MVP votes during his first couple of full seasons, he could net the club an extra draft pick.

The Rockies’ Options For Replacing Trevor Story

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Uncertainty at shortstop is unfamiliar territory for the Rockies. Troy Tulowitzki held down the position for almost a decade, including a handful of seasons where he was among the best position players in the sport. Colorado traded Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays midway through the 2015 campaign, but they had a highly-regarded replacement waiting in the wings.

Trevor Story burst onto the big league scene with six home runs in his first four MLB games in April 2016. Essentially from that point forward, the position was his. Aside from a strikeout-fueled slump in his sophomore season, Story offered solid to plus production on both sides of the ball throughout his time in Denver. The most recent Colorado Opening Day shortstop not named Tulowitzki or Story? Clint Barmes, in 2006.

For the first time in a long time, the Rox now have a real question mark at shortstop. Story hit free agency. The club tagged him with a qualifying offer and has expressed some hope in a reunion, but there’s no indication that’s likely to happen. Assuming Story doesn’t return after the lockout, where could the Rockies go from here?

Unlike after Tulowitzki’s departure, Colorado wouldn’t appear to have a minor league replacement ready to step in. Only two of the top ten prospects in the farm system, according to Baseball America, are shortstops. One of them, Ezequiel Tovar, is 20 years old and finished the 2021 campaign in High-A. The other, Adael Amador, is 18 and has yet to advance to full season ball. So the Rockies will either need to move one of their current big leaguers up the defensive spectrum or replace Story externally.

Internal Options

  • Brendan Rodgers — A former #3 overall draftee and top prospect, Rodgers has appeared in the big leagues in three consecutive seasons but finally got his first extended MLB run last year. He held his own, hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances, starting a bit more than half the team’s games in the middle infield. The bulk of Rodgers’ work came at second base, and while that was partially in deference to Story, it also seems the club believes him better suited for the keystone. In November, Thomas Harding of MLB.com wrote that the front office’s “preferred plan is to keep Rodgers … at second base.”
  • Ryan McMahon — McMahon’s coming off a very nice season. He hit a capable .254/.331/.449 over 596 trips to the plate. More impressively, the 27-year-old rated as a Gold Glove caliber defender during a season split between second and third base. After the season, general manager Bill Schmidt expressed his belief McMahon could handle the rigors of regular shortstop duty. That’s not without risks, though. The California native moved to third base in high school and has never started a professional game — MLB or minor league — at shortstop. And while moving McMahon might effectively plug a hole at shortstop, it’d leave the team searching for third base help (perhaps explaining their interest in Kris Bryant?).
  • Garrett Hampson — If Rodgers and McMahon stay put at second and third base, respectively, that’d seemingly leave Hampson as the favorite for shortstop playing time among internal candidates. The speedster has bounced all around the diamond as a big leaguer. He was a primary middle infielder coming up through the minors, though, and he’d likely be a capable if unspectacular option defensively. The bigger question may be whether the Rockies are content to live with Hampson’s bat in the lineup regularly. Despite playing his home games at altitude, the 27-year-old is a .240/.298/.383 hitter in a bit more than 1,000 career plate appearances.
  • Alan Trejo — Trejo is the least experienced of the bunch, with only 28 big league games under his belt. The 25-year-old is probably better suited for a utility role than the regular shortstop job. He has a decent minor league track record but has never appeared on an organizational ranking at BA.

Free Agents

Aside from Story and Carlos Correa, free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions at this point. Andrelton Simmons  is still an elite defender but coming off a miserable season at the plate. José Iglesias had a decent offensive showing but ran into uncharacteristic troubles with the glove. While Jonathan Villar can still moonlight at shortstop, he’s probably better suited for second/third base duty.

Trade Candidates

There are a few shortstops who might be available in trade. The D-Backs would surely listen to offers on Nick Ahmed. The Phillies might find an upgrade over Didi Gregorius. The A’s are likely to try to find a taker for Elvis Andrus. All three players will make fairly notable salaries in 2022, though, and none are definitive improvements over Colorado’s internal options.

The Rockies could act more aggressively in an attempt to land a younger, affordable player from teams with greater infield depth (i.e. the Royals’ Adalberto Mondesi or the Rays’ Taylor Walls). But that’d require parting with young talent from a farm system that Baseball America placed among the league’s bottom five in August. Coming off a 74-87 season, that’s probably not the most advisable course of action either.

Figuring out shortstop has likely been a point of emphasis this winter for Schmidt and his staff. Whether they elect to rely on an internal option without much MLB experience at the position or look outside the organization for help, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they enter 2022 as confident in their shortstop group as they’ve been for quite some time.

Rockies Notes: Gray, Owings, Rodgers

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Jon Gray is a few days away from fielding offers around the league, after the 29-year-old rejected a three-year extension offer from the Rockies that reportedly landed in the $35-40MM range. It’s widely expected the Rox will issue him an $18.4MM qualifying offer before Sunday’s deadline, thereby at least entitling themselves draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere.

General manager Bill Schmidt has yet to formally announce the club’s intentions on a Gray QO, but he acknowledged to Thomas Harding of MLB.com the front office is “discussing” whether to do so. With the Rockies already willing to offer Gray $12-13MM annually over a three-year term, it’d be surprising if they weren’t willing to risk him accepting a one-year deal for just $5-6MM more.

Harding suggests in a separate piece that Colorado still hopes to eventually work out a deal with Gray, writing that the Rockies “believe they value Gray more than other teams.” Given that he’s shown himself capable of finding success in Coors Field, that’d certainly be plenty reasonable. Still, the pitcher and his representatives evidently believe there’s a chance they’ll find an offer that tops the Rockies’ proposal on the open market.

Retaining Gray would require a significant investment on Colorado’s part, but it’d be far easier to keep another of their free agents — Chris Owings — in the fold. Owings has spent the past two seasons with the Rockies, joining the organization on minor league deals in both instances. Colorado would like to bring Owings back in 2022, Harding hears. It’s possible that’d come via another minors pact, as the utilityman was limited to just 50 plate appearances this past season (albeit with a highly productive .326/.420/.628 line) by a pair of injuries to his left thumb.

One free agent who almost definitely will not be returning is Trevor Story. A lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, Story is all but certain to sign a significant multi-year deal elsewhere. The Rockies will have to address one middle infield spot this winter, then, and Harding writes they’re expected to target shortstop help. Brendan Rodgers came up as a shortstop prospect before moving to second base in deference to Story. It’s not out of the question Colorado could bump Rodgers back to short and add an external option at second base, but Harding hears the front office would prefer to keep the 25-year-old Rodgers at the keystone moving forward.

Jon Gray Has Reportedly Rejected Extension Offer From Rockies

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Jon Gray rejected an extension offer the Rockies made him before the end of the regular season, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Gray continues to have interest in sticking with Colorado long-term, Saunders adds, although the expectation is now that he’ll at least test the open market.

There’s been reported mutual interest between the Rox and Gray in a long-term deal for months, but the sides have yet to line up on acceptable terms. Saunders suggests the right-hander could target a three or four-year deal with an average annual value in the $9-10MM range on the open market. Whether that kind of deal would be attainable could depend upon whether the Rockies tag Gray with a qualifying offer. Doing so would entitle the Rockies to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere, although he’d be a strong candidate to accept an $18.4MM offer to return in 2022.

Perhaps that’d be a mutually agreeable outcome, since Colorado clearly has interest in retaining Gray. Despite already being out of postseason contention by late July, the Rockies seemingly made Gray unavailable relatively early on trade deadline day. That course of action makes little sense unless the team wants to keep him around, and subsequent reports made clear that’s the case.

Gray bounced back from an injury-plagued 2020 to post a solid season this year. Over 149 innings, the 29-year-old worked to a 4.59 ERA with average or better strikeout (24.4%), walk (9%) and ground-ball (48.4%) rates. He thrived at Coors Field, tossing 78 1/3 frames of 4.02 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .205/.291/.365 line in home starts. With how difficult it has proven for the Rockies to find pitchers capable of succeeding in the game’s most hitter-friendly environment, it’s easy to see why general manager Bill Schmidt and his staff have continually expressed interest in keeping Gray around.

Saunders adds some additional context on Colorado’s offseason priorities, writing that the club is expected to target “at least two impactful players.” What constitutes an impact addition is open to interpretation, but Saunders suggests the club will look for a power-hitting bat this winter, preferably an outfielder. He floats Nick Castellanos (almost certain to opt out of his contract with the Reds), Michael Conforto and utilityman Chris Taylor as possible targets.

That’s a varied collection of potential players of interest. Castellanos looks like a candidate for a nine-figure deal. Taylor has a strong case for a four-year contract in the $65+MM range. Conforto could land three or four years himself, but it’s also possible he looks for a one-year bounceback deal after a mediocre 2021 campaign. Signing any of that group would probably cost the Rockies a draft choice, as they’re all likely qualifying offer recipients.

As for other areas of need for the Rockies, Saunders floats the bullpen and middle infield. Shortstop Trevor Story is expected to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, leaving a middle infield vacancy. Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers has seemingly locked down one spot after hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances this past season. Rodgers is capable of manning either of shortstop or second base, leaving some flexibility for Schmidt and company in addressing the dirt.

Plugging all those position player gaps and/or retaining Gray would certainly make for a costly winter. Earlier this month, Colorado president Greg Feasel said the club was planning to increase payroll over the course of the next two offseasons — eventually pushing from 2021’s $118MM figure closer to their franchise-record $145MM mark from 2019. Colorado should indeed have spending room to work with, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates they have around $79MM in 2022 commitments at the moment — including projected arbitration salaries.

That financial flexibility should give the front office real room for upgrades, but they’ll have a tall task in constructing a contender. The Rockies have finished in fourth place in the NL West in each of the past three seasons, and the impending departure of Story only makes a return to contention in that loaded division harder. Despite those challenges, Saunders’ report reinforces that the Rockies aren’t planning to take a step back this winter. They’re at least plotting a hopeful win-now course of action that could see them remain in the market for some of the offseason’s top free agent hitters.

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