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Brett Phillips

Brett Phillips, The Rays’ Thrice-Traded Hero

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Despite the new August 31 date and all the uncertainty about how player movement would be impacted by the circumstances of the pandemic-shortened season, the lead-up to the 2020 trade deadline went more or less the same as deadlines past.  Some big names switched uniforms, non-contenders looked to dump salary and add prospects, and just about as always, one unheralded trade ended up paying big dividends in October.

On August 27, the Rays made a move to shore up their bench depth by acquiring Brett Phillips from the Royals in exchange for infield prospect Lucius Fox.  It was one of several seemingly minor swaps Tampa Bay made prior to the August 31 deadline, and while the Rays were already coasting towards a postseason spot by that point, the argument could have been made that a bigger move was necessary to boost their chances at a championship.

Little did we know, the Phillips trade was that move.  Phillips’ ninth-inning RBI single last night started a wild, game-deciding sequence and an 8-7 comeback victory for Tampa in Game 4 of the World Series.  After entering the game as a pinch-runner in the previous inning, Phillips’ first plate appearance since October 7 resulted in his entry into instant legend status in Rays history.

Not bad for a player who was primarily seen as a defensive and pinch-running specialist at the time of his acquisition.  In fact, it’s not bad for a 26-year-old player playing for his fourth different organization, which is perhaps why Phillips was such an unlikely candidate to deliver the Rays’ biggest hit.

Originally a sixth-round pick for the Astros in the 2012 draft, Phillips began to turn heads after a very impressive 2014 season at the A-ball and high-A levels.  He continued to produce into 2015, and while this breakout might have made him into a building block for the rebuilding Astros if it had happened a bit earlier in Phillips’ career, by 2015 the Astros were looking to win.  As such, Houston made a major trade deadline swap with the Brewers that sent Phillips, Josh Hader, Domingo Santana, and Adrian Houser to Milwaukee in exchange for Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, and $287,500 in international bonus pool money.

The Astros went on to reach the postseason that year, falling to the Royals in the ALDS, yet the aftershocks of this trade continue to reverberate around baseball.  Gomez ended up being something of a disappointment for Houston that year, though Fiers went on to become a solid member of the Astros’ rotation through their 2017 World Series-winning season and then…well, you know the rest.  On Milwaukee’s end of the deal, Hader developed into one of the game’s best relief aces, Hauser has emerged as an intriguing starter, and Santana delivered some solid production over 351 games for the Brew Crew before he was traded to the Mariners in the 2018-19 offseason.

The one weak link of the Brewers’ trade return, however, was Phillips.  There was no doubt that Phillips had MLB-caliber speed and glovework, except after a promising .799 OPS over 98 plate appearances in 2017, he struggled badly the next season and found himself on the move again.

This time, Phillips was headed to Kansas City (along with right-hander Jorge Lopez) in another deadline deal, as Milwaukee picked up Mike Moustakas for the pennant race.  The Moose was a key part of a Brewers team that came within a game of the 2018 NL pennant, and the Brew Crew reached the playoffs again in 2019 thanks in large part to Moustakas’ All-Star season.  For Phillips, he found himself on another rebuilding team with another opportunity at a fresh start, yet he again couldn’t capitalize — Phillips hit .178/.256/.308 over 236 PA spanning three seasons with the Royals.

As a player who relied on doubles and triples rather than homers, Phillips wasn’t quite a “three true outcomes” player in the minors, though he used a keen batting eye to counter-act his strikeouts and generate a career .274/.362/.478 slash line over 3174 PA.  The problem is, Major League pitchers have feasted on those holes in Phillips’ swing, as he has struck out 133 times in his 383 plate appearances at the big league level.

Phillips’ trade history is indicative of his declining prospect stock, as he went from a headline piece of a blockbuster deal to last August’s swap that didn’t generate many headlines.  Not many headlines, that is, until last night.  While Phillips’ first two trades carried so much import for other teams and players involved, it wasn’t until his third time changing uniforms that Phillips himself now stands as the most important part of a trade.  Phillips is still only 26, and given the Rays’ penchant for finding hidden gems, perhaps last night’s heroics will only raise the curtain on a big second act of Phillips’ Major League career.

Rays Add Brett Phillips, Ryan Sherriff To World Series Roster

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The Rays have set their roster for their upcoming World Series showdown with the National League Champion Dodgers. They’ll carry mostly the same group of players that toppled the Astros in a riveting seven-game American League Championship Series, with a few notable changes. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that outfielder Brett Phillips and left-handed reliever Ryan Sherriff have both been added to the roster, taking the spots of right-hander Aaron Slegers and lefty Jose Alvarado.

Here’s how the roster breaks down:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Unlike the Division Series and League Championship Series, the World Series has a pair of off-days built into the schedule, which likely contributed heavily to Tampa Bay’s decision to carry an extra position player in the final round of play. In Phillips, they’ll add a rocket-armed and fleet-footed reserve outfielder who can provide some speed off the bench and a defensive upgrade late in games. Phillips tallied just 59 plate appearances in 2020 between the Royals and Rays, hitting .196/.305/.392. He was six-for-seven in stolen bases, however, and has developed a penchant for making highlight-reel throws from the outfield with an arm that regularly drew 70 grades and even a few 80 grades on scouting reports.

The 30-year-old Sherriff returned from a lengthy absence due to Tommy John surgery to give the Rays 9 2/3 shutout frames during the regular season. He has a limited Major League track record, having pitched a bit for the Cardinals previously. Sherriff only struck out two hitters in those 9 2/3 innings, but he also recorded a hefty 56.7 percent ground-ball rate. In all, he has a 2.73 ERA with a 20-to-8 K/BB ratio and a 60.4 percent grounder rate in 29 2/3 Major League innings.

Alvarado was added to the ALCS roster after sitting out the Wild Card and ALDS rounds. He’d been sidelined by a shoulder issue since mid-August prior to that point, and he’ll now be swapped out for Sherriff, it seems. Alvarado tossed 1 2/3 scoreless frames against the Astros but did walk three of the five batters he faced in his second appearance. Slegers has allowed just one run in five innings to this point in the postseason after giving the Rays 26 frames of 3.46 ERA/3.04 FIP ball during the regular season.

AL Notes: Rays, Phillips, White Sox, Encarnación, Vaughn, Rodon, Gonzalez, Mazara

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The Rays and Astros have roster decisions to make before their 10am deadlines. Both teams plan on adding a pitcher for the ALCS. For the Rays, Josh Fleming, Jose Alvarado, Ryan Sherriff, or even Brent Honeywell look like the top candidates to join the roster, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Brett Phillips, meanwhile, could be the odd man out now that Austin Meadows is back in the lineup. On the other hand, if the Rays choose to decide the roster spot by dance battle, Phillips should be safe. The former Royal and Brewer has appeared in four games this postseason, largely being used as a defensive replacement.

Now, lest we spend the entire evening on the postseason alone, let’s check in on a team that hopes to have these kinds of decisions to make in years to come…

  • The White Sox have some options pending after their most successful season in over a decade, and the Athletic’s James Fegan provides a rundown. One of the easier calls will be declining the $12MM club option on designated hitter Edwin Encarnación. It’s true that Encarnación didn’t exactly dazzle this year with a triple slash of .157/.250/.377, but more telling is GM Rick Hahn’s comment about #3 overall draft pick of the 2019 draft: Andrew Vaughn. Per Fegan, Hahn said, “Given his makeup and given his tools, it’s hard to look at him and rule him out of being able to help a team in the not too distant future.”
  • Like ships passing in the night, just as one #3 pick could soon embark on his White Sox career, another in Carlos Rodon could be nearing an end. The big lefty will be due at least a nominal raise on his $4.45MM contract, and there’s a decent chance that’s too rich given his inability to stay healthy. The White Sox will be looking for stability for their rotation now that their contention window has firmly opened. With that in mind, it’s likely they decline Gio Gonzalez’s $7MM option as well.
  • Perhaps the most surprising tidbit in the group is Fegan’s suggestion that Nomar Mazara is heading for a DFA. Not so shocking when considering his 42-game .228/.295/.294 line he put up across 194 plate appearances this year. But taking the long view, this certainly isn’t where the 25-year-old appeared to be heading when he made his debut in Texas as a 21-year-old.

Rays Acquire Brett Phillips From Royals

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The Rays have acquired outfielder Brett Phillips from the Royals in exchange for minor league infielder Lucius Fox, the teams announced. Both players are on the 40-man roster, so corresponding 40-man moves aren’t necessary.

It’s a swap of two once-heralded young talents whose respective stocks have dipped in recent years. Phillips, 26, went from the Astros to the Brewers alongside Josh Hader in the famed Mike Fiers/Carlos Gomez deal. At the time, he was a top 50 prospect who was regarded as a potential five-tool superstar, but in the years since, his contact issues have continued to limit his value. Phillips went from Milwaukee to K.C. in the original Mike Moustakas trade, and he’s since settled in as an absolutely rocket-armed, plus defensive outfielder with power but major swing-and-miss issues at the plate.

It’s fun to think about what an outfield of Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and Phillips could do from a defensive standpoint, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that in 358 MLB plate appearances, Phillips is a .205/.282/.344 hitter with an enormous 35.2% strikeout rate. His penchant for “did-he-just-do-that,” highlight-reel assists from any of the three outfield spots make him one of the game’s more entertaining defenders, but the Rays have some work to do if they are to coax anything out of Phillips from an offensive standpoint. Phillips is controllable through 2024, but he’s already out of minor league options, so the Rays have to keep him on the big league roster.

The 23-year-old Fox, meanwhile, is a switch-hitting Bahamian shortstop who signed a hefty $6MM bonus with the Giants back in 2015. That deal came near the peak of aggressive spending on international amateurs that preceded the hard-capped bonus pools which are now in place under the 2016-21 CBA. He was seen at the time as an athletic, high-contact middle infielder or center fielder with speed and the potential to grow into a bit more power than he had, but Fox hasn’t developed at the plate as hoped.

He lasted just one season with the Giants before being traded to the Rays as part of their return for Matt Moore, and there was some controversy when it was discovered post-trade that Fox had been playing through a foot injury which was not disclosed to the Rays. Fox eventually settled in as a mid-range prospect in a deep Rays system, but his stock has continued to dip as he’s posted pedestrian minor league numbers. He spent most of the 2019 season in Double-A, where he hit .230/.340/.342 with three homers and 37 steals. The speed is surely a highly appealing trait to a Royals club that tends to stockpile stolen-base threats, but Fox’s overall offensive game has yet to come together.

The Royals’ Outfield Of Infielders

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Alex Gordon’s story is familiar to most baseball fans. The No. 2 overall draft pick in 2005 was soon ranked the game’s No. 2 overall prospect by Baseball America. With a lefty-swinging third baseman being touted as the next face of the franchise, George Brett parallels were (unfairly) drawn. The hype was substantial, and when Gordon arrived on the scene, he struggled to live up to those lofty expectations.

Gordon was worth 4.8 WAR through his first two big league seasons, per both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. His next two seasons were miserable — shortened by torn cartilage in his hip (2009) and a fractured thumb (2010). By the time he’d made it through four MLB campaigns, Gordon owned a career .244/.328/.405 (93 wRC+). Defensively, his work at third base wasn’t well regarded (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, -4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating). He began ceding playing time to Alberto Callaspo at third base and was moved to left field during the 2010 season.

The Royals remained patient, however, and Gordon rewarded that faith was a massive breakout in 2011. Suddenly Gordon looked like the franchise cornerstone everyone had hoped. He hit .303/.376/.502 (140 wRC+) and, perhaps even more surprisingly, graded out as one of the best defensive left fielders in recent history (+20 DRS, +12.2 UZR). Almost overnight, Gordon was a six-WAR player. He settled in as an OBP machine with elite defense, solid baserunning and some pop in his bat, and Gordon’s production was a significant factor in Kansas City’s consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15.

We’re coming up on a decade of Gordon in left field. He’s seen Jarrod Dyson, Alex Rios, Lorenzo Cain, Nori Aoki and numerous others cycle through the other outfield slots, but Gordon has remained the constant. And now, as the organization works to emerge from its rebuild in the next couple of seasons, the third-baseman-turned-star-left-fielder is joined in the outfield by … another pair of infielders.

Hunter Dozier never carried the same hype as Gordon, although his No. 8 overall selection in 2013 was only six spots behind Gordon’s draft slot. Dozier was a surprise pick there — ultimately a cost-saving selection designed to offer a larger bonus to Sean Manaea a ways later. That’s not to say Dozier wasn’t a well-regarded draft prospect — he was widely expected to be a day one pick — but top 10 overall was still a surprise.

Dozier struggled through much of his time in the low minors before surprising with a huge .296/.366/.533 showing between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. He parlayed that into his first promotion to the big leagues but appeared in only eight games. An oblique tear and wrist surgery wiped out most of his 2017 season, and when Dozier finally got a big league look in 2018, he hit .229/.278/.395 in 388 plate appearances. His 28.1 percent strikeout rate was among the highest in the league, his 6.2 percent walk rate was low, and his glovework was poorly rated. FanGraphs pegged him at -0.8 WAR; Baseball Reference placed a ghastly -1.7 on his overall efforts.

Still, Dozier felt that he finished out the ’18 season well after missing ’17, telling Lynn Worthy of the K.C. Star in the offseason that he “found” himself again late in the year. That comment might’ve been met with eye-rolls from some fans at the time, but no one’s questioning him now.

In 2019, Dozier cut his strikeout rate by three percentage points, upped his walk rate by the same number and saw upticks in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and launch angle. He swung less often, chased pitches out of the zone at a 30.1 percent clip (compared to 2018’s 35.5 percent) and improved his contact rate. In essence, Dozier stopped chasing so many bad pitches and saw his contact quality improve along with his walk rate. That’s a good recipe for any hitter.

The results speak for themselves. In 586 plate appearances, Dozier broke out with a .279/.348/.522 slash. His 26 home runs topped any of his minor league season totals, and Dozier kicked in another 29 doubles and a whopping 10 triples. That last number is surprising, especially for a player who only swiped two bases, but Dozier actually ranks in the 80th percentile among MLB hitters in terms of average sprint speed.

Defense still seemed to be problematic, though. Despite making strides, his work at third was rated below average, and the Royals eventually began giving Dozier some looks in right field. That sprint speed would certainly play well in the outfield, and scouting reports have long since touted his arm strength. MLB.com regularly put a 55 on his arm, while FanGraphs had a 60 on his arm in his final season of prospect eligibility. If Dozier can get comfortable with his outfield reads and keep hitting, there’s little reason to think he can’t be a solid Major League right fielder. And with Maikel Franco signed over the winter to step in at third base, it seems that right field is indeed Dozier’s most obvious path to at-bats.

Manning center field between Gordon and Dozier will be now-former second baseman Whit Merrifield. The two-time stolen base champ and the hits leader in the American League in both 2018 and 2019, Merrifield broke into the big leagues as a 27-year-old second baseman who was never considered a high-end prospect. The former ninth-round pick was considered more of a potential utility option, but he showed his aptitude for hitting almost immediately.

Merrifield’s speed and bat-to-ball skills were on display almost immediately in the Majors, and by the midway point of the 2017 season it was clear that he was far more than a utility option — lack of fanfare surrounding his arrival in the Majors or not. In his three full MLB seasons, Merrifield has hit .298/.348/.454 with 47 home runs, 116 doubles, 19 triples and 99 stolen bases. And despite having more than 3000 innings of quality glovework at second base under his belt, Merrifield appears to be the Royals’ first answer for the their current center field void.

That’s more a testament to Merrifield’s versatility than anything else. His ability to slide into center field will allow the club a longer look at Nicky Lopez at second base, although Merrifield will surely still see some reps at second base at various points whenever play resumes.

If that experiment doesn’t work, though, it seems likelier that it’ll be due to struggles of Lopez at second base than because of Merrifield’s work in center. Merrifield has already given the Royals more than 1100 innings of roughly average defense across all three outfield spots. Similarly, if Franco proves unable to tap into the potential he once showed, Dozier could either move back to the hot corner or the organization could take a look at Kelvin Gutierrez in a full-time role at third base.

That Dozier and Merrifield could line up in the outfield on a fairly regular basis certainly doesn’t bode well for out-of-options outfielders Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling. Both may have been in line to make the MLB roster out of camp because of that lack of options, but neither has produced in the Majors. Most are aware of Phillips’ highlight-reel arm and penchant for eye-popping assists, but his strikeout levels have been alarming. Starling, a former top 10 pick himself, has yet to deliver on the raw ability that led to that draft status. Both will get some looks in the outfield, and on those days, Dozier and Merrifield can slot back into the infield as needed.

At various points in recent years, the Royals likely envisioned both Dozier and Merrifield holding down key spots in the lineup, but slotting in alongside Gordon in the outfield probably wasn’t the way they had things scripted. The team’s willingness to move players around has panned out in the past, though, and their ability to do so with Merrifield and Dozier could allow them to get a look at several young options around the field.

Royals Designate Billy Hamilton

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The Royals have designated outfielder Billy Hamilton for assignment. His active roster spot will go to Brett Phillips, who was recalled from Triple-A.

Hamilton has long seemed a candidate to change uniforms — ever since he was signed over the offseason, in fact. The rebuilding Kansas City organization inked him for a guaranteed $5.25MM (including a $1MM buyout on a 2020 mutual option) after the Reds non-tendered Hamilton to send him onto the open market.

The 28-year-old Hamilton has never delivered much with the bat, but he’s finding new lows in 2019. Through 305 plate appearances, he’s slashing a meager .211/.275/.269. It’s hard to carry any player on the roster with that kind of offensive output, which is worse than half the league-average hitter (44 wRC+).

Baserunning and defense have long allowed Hamilton to make up for his shortcomings at the plate. But Hamilton isn’t running as often or as well when he does get aboard. The renowned base-stealer has only taken 18 bags, while being cut down five times. Statcast identifies a relatively small but still notable reduction in his sprint speed; Fangraphs’ BsR measure identifies him as a very good but not uniquely exceptional overall baserunner. Defensive metrics do remain quite positive, which remains a strong feather in Hamilton’s cap.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Hamilton. The contract is rather steep for a player that won’t likely feature as more than a 4th or 5th outfielder for a contender. But it’s also fascinating to contemplate what the speedster could do down the stretch and on a postseason roster. If some team decides it really wants to have him, and doesn’t want to risk Hamilton choosing another organization, it’s certainly possible we’ll see a claim.

Meanwhile, the move will open the door for the Royals to get their first look at Phillips in the majors this year. He is still swinging and missing quite a bit this season at Triple-A, as he has since landing with the Milwaukee organization, but he has ramped his walk rate up to 17.4% while delivering good power numbers (.264 ISO, .505 SLG).

AL Central Notes: Adrianza, Twins, Salazar, Royals, Beckham

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With eight games until the end of Spring Training, infielder Ehire Adrianza isn’t assured of a spot on the Twins’ Opening Day roster, writes LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Adrianza is out of minor league options, so if he doesn’t break camp with the club he’d be exposed to outright waivers. Minnesota’s addition of Marwin Gonzalez and the emergence of Willians Astudillo have left Adrianza without a clear role. Gonzalez will open the season as the primary third baseman while Miguel Sano rehabs a foot injury, but the Twins could go with a bench consisting of catcher Mitch Garver, outfielder Jake Cave, first baseman Tyler Austin (also out of minor league options) and Astudillo. Cave has options remaining, and Gonzalez can play the outfield, but they’d be rather thin on outfielders if Cave opened the year in Triple-A. Adrianza has enjoyed a nice spring, but he’s in a tough spot at the moment. He’s set to earn $1.3MM after avoiding arbitration, but they’d only owe him about $315K of that sum if they cut him loose between now and Opening Day. If he hits waivers, another club would have to take on that $1.3MM salary in order to claim him.

More from the division…

  • Danny Salazar’s progress in his recovery from 2018 shoulder surgery has “skyrocketed” in the past 10 to 14 days, Indians manager Terry Francona said Monday (link via Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer). Salazar had slogged through a pair of “down weeks” but has quickly bounced back to the point where he’s playing long toss from a distance of 180 feet. There’s still no clear timetable as to when Salazar will reemerge as a bullpen option in Cleveland — Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber have rotation spots locked down — but if healthy, he’d add a big arm to a relief corps that is lacking in established arms behind closer Brad Hand.
  • The Royals are still trying to determine which of the several right field options they have in camp will make the roster, writes Rustin Dodd of The Athletic (subscription required). Manager Ned Yost has said that Jorge Soler will be in the lineup nearly everyday, splitting time between DH and right field, but the Royals still have Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips and Jorge Bonifacio as candidates for significant innings in right. None of that trio has had a good spring, however, and Goodwin is out of minor league options. Terrance Gore, on the active roster after signing a big league deal this winter, is viewed as more of a bench option than a candidate to log many starts in the outfield. There will likely be occasional at-bats at the other outfield slots, but Alex Gordon and Billy Hamilton will get the bulk of the playing time in left field and center field, respectively. Dodd ultimately runs through the entire lineup and pitching staff in making his projections as to which 25 players will break camp and comprise the Opening Day roster.
  • Gordon Beckham spoke with Chris McCosky of the Detroit News about his transformation from lauded top prospect to a journeyman bouncing from minor league deal to minor league deal. In camp with the Tigers on a minor league pact, Beckham was candid in discussing his ups and downs and many of the difficult moments he’s faced in his career. Struggling for the first time in his career at the big league level with the White Sox, Beckham said the pressure to meet expectations “mentally crushed” him. He had even weighed whether he’d continue his playing career if he failed to land a big league job this spring, reflecting that it’s “crazy to think I have to make this decision.” However, as McCosky outlines, he actually may not have to make that decision. Manager Ron Gardenhire has been impressed by Beckham this spring, spoken fondly of the veteran infielder, and expressed a desire for additional veteran middle-infield depth. All of that seemingly bodes well for Beckham, who entered play Monday hitting .314/.429/.429 in 42 plate appearances this spring.

AL Central Notes: Sano, Abreu, Duffy, Phillips

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Twins slugger Miguel Sano had to be carted off the field Tuesday after suffering an apparent left leg injury upon sliding into second base (video link via MLB.com). That’s the same leg that caused Sano to miss the final few weeks of the 2017 season — an injury that ultimately led to surgery to insert a titanium rod into his shin. Initial x-rays on the injury were negative, according to the team, and Sano has been diagnosed with a bruised lower leg, although there figure to be further evaluations and updates after the game. Whether lingering effect from that offseason procedure have impacted Sano isn’t clear, but the 2018 campaign has been a nightmare for the former top prospect. A year after hitting .264/.352/.507 with 28 homers in 483 plate appearances, Sano has struggled to a dismal .202/.285/.405 slash with a 37.6 percent strikeout rate.

More news out of the AL Central…

  • White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu told reporters today that the surgery he underwent two weeks ago was to repair a testicular torsion, as Daryl Van-Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. The issue “blindsided” Abreu and prompted emergency surgery, but the 31-year-old Abreu thankfully revealed that he is in good health and possibly even nearing a return to the playing field. Abreu expressed optimism about being able to play in a game this weekend, though Van Schouwen notes that both manager Rick Renteria and GM Rick Hahn offered a more cautious timetable and said Abreu could miss another week or so. For now, Abreu is doing light cardio exercises as he works his way back.
  • The Royals announced tonight that left-hander Danny Duffy exited tonight’s start with a shoulder impingement and shoulder tightness. Further details haven’t yet been made available, but Duffy already missed 10 days last month due to an impingement in his left shoulder, making continued symptoms all the more troubling. The 28-year-old lefty lasted just two-thirds of an inning and saw was charged with three runs, causing his ERA to balloon to 4.88 on the year. Center fielder Brett Phillips, meanwhile, was announced as day-to-day with a shoulder contusion after crashing into the outfield wall at top speed.

Brewers Acquire Mike Moustakas

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The Brewers have lined up with the Royals on a deal that will bring third baseman Mike Moustakas to Milwaukee, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan first reported (via Twitter). Outfielder Brett Phillips and righty Jorge Lopez are going to Kansas City in return.

This appears to be a fascinating agreement for a variety of reasons, beginning with the fact that it’s the official farewell between Moustakas and the Royals, who surprisingly reunited last winter. It seems the Brewers will be rolling the dice on Travis Shaw’s ability to play second base, as the long-time third-bagger will apparently make way for his new teammate. For the Royals, meanwhile, the focus of this swap is on acquiring MLB options rather than far-off, higher-ceiling talent.

It’s a notable acquisition price for the Brewers to pay, but also a palatable one for a club that had other plans at these positions. After watching Manny Machado, Eduardo Escobar, and Asdrubal Cabrera head elsewhere, the club pivoted to the veteran Moustakas and got something done without giving up prized future pieces.

That said, the fit seems awfully curious; indeed, we expressed some skepticism of that match when it was first suggested. The Milwaukee organization clearly believes that Shaw is capable of playing second base, but he has never yet done so in a professional baseball contest. It certainly helps that the club can still call upon a variety of other infielders to slot in at second when the situation calls for it.

Of course, slotting Moustakas’s bat into a lineup promises to vastly increase the offensive output over the run of marginal bats that left the Brewers with one of the least-productive second base units in the game. He has seen his numbers dwindle over the course of the year, but still owns a .249/.309/.468 batting line that’s good for a 107 wRC+ and falls mostly in line with his typical output at the plate.

Otherwise, Moustakas is grading out as a solid defender and poor baserunner on the year, leaving him as a quality regular. But he’s most effective against right-handed pitching, albeit not by a huge margin, so perhaps skipper Craig Counsell can extract added some added value both by means of seeking platoon advantages and remaining mindful of situational priorities.

It appears that the Brewers will take over Moustakas’s contract, which promised him just $5.5MM this year with a $1MM buyout in a 2019 mutual option. There’s no particular reason to think that the option will be seen as anything more than a formality in this coming offseason, so the Milwaukee organization likely views this as a pure rental situation.

As they send Moustakas on his way, the Royals will receive an interesting return of two young players who already have some MLB experience. Neither is currently billed as highly as they have been in the past. And both will continue to occupy 40-man spots, meaning they’ll be part of the roster picture at the major-league level from the outset.

Phillips still rated as the Brewers’ sixth-best prospect on the latest Baseball America board, though MLB.com wasn’t quite as bullish in rating him tenth. The 24-year-old still has intriguing tools, though he has also struggled to a .240/.331/.411 slash in 299 plate appearances this year at Triple-A. He’ll join the recently acquired Brian Goodwin in giving the Royals organization a group of outfielders that suddenly seems much more interesting.

Lopez, meanwhile, has fallen even farther from grace. Once a consensus top-100 prospect, the 25-year-old has run into some problems of late. He pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 103 2/3 Double-A frames in 2017, but posted much more promising peripherals that supported a 3.21 FIP an 3.13 xFIP. Unfortunately, there’s not much cause for optimism in his 2018 output. Lopez has a 2.75 ERA in 19 2/3 MLB innings, but he also carries a 15:13 K/BB ratio. In 28 2/3 Triple-A frames, he’s working to a 5.65 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Manny Machado Rumors: Tuesday

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Yesterday’s news wire included quite a lot of chatter surrounding Orioles infielder Manny Machado, who is the clear top player available on this summer’s trade market. Last we checked, the Brewers and Dodgers were said to be working hard at making a deal with the Yankees also entering the fray.

Here’s the latest:

  • The Brewers and Dodgers are indeed still trying to sort out arrangements with the Baltimore front office, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who provides more details on the talks in a subscription link. Rosenthal suggests that the O’s are targeting Milwaukee hurler Corbin Burnes and Dodgers prospects Gavin Lux and Dustin May, none of whom appear to be available in talks. Notably, per the report, the Brewers “would prefer to build their package” around outfielder Brett Phillips and pitching prospect Luis Ortiz — both highly-ranked young talents in their own rights, perhaps suggesting that the Orioles have had some success in generating quality offers. Of course, every team will have its own preferences on young talent, and prospect rankings are little more than a general guide for outside observers. Broadly, it does not sound as if either the Milwaukee or Los Angeles organizations are close to striking a deal for Machado. It also seemingly remains an open question whether the Orioles are really interested in dealing him before the All-Star Game. That’d surely be the approach taken if the club feels it can best maximize the return right now, though it would also be tough to see Machado lined up in a different uniform down the street in D.C.
  • Meanwhile, after Machado himself threw a bit of cold water on the notion of a shift back to third base — which would be the only way he’d really fit in with the Yankees — New York GM Brian Cashman cast further shade on the concept of a move to the Bronx. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, Cashman suggests he’s focused primarily on boosting his team’s starting pitching. The third base position, he says, is a clear strength for the club. That hardly rules out a move for Machado, of course, though Cashman did make clear that he views it as his “job” to “attack weakness” on the roster. All things considered, it seems this intriguing match is a low-likelihood match, but one that shouldn’t be dismissed entirely.
  • Of course, some teams that once figured to represent suitors no longer really seem to be in the mix. That’s the case for the Cubs, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. He cites an O’s source that pegs the Diamondbacks as another leading contender to land Machado, along with the two noted above, so it seems Arizona is still involved even if the team hasn’t been linked as strongly in recent days. But the Chicago organization seems understandably pleased with its existing lineup, with pitching representing a greater need. Likewise, the Cardinals don’t appear to be involved on Machado, which Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argues is a reflection of the front office’s accurate assessment of the team’s outlook.
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