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Bryan Woo

Mariners Could Deal From Rotation, Open To Offers On Paul Sewald

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There’s been ample speculation surrounding the Mariners’ excellent young rotation since it was reported that the Cardinals had interest in 26-year-old righty Logan Gilbert. And while a trade involving one of Seattle’s talented arms could be a long shot due to the lofty asking price associated with all controllable young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the M’s would at least consider dealing from their stock in order to acquire a young hitter with several years of control remaining.

Seattle’s rotation features veteran ace Luis Castillo and a quartet of touted young righties: Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Gilbert and Kirby have largely established themselves as quality big league arms, while Miller and Woo have impressed during their rookie efforts.

Gilbert, sporting a 3.88 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 20 starts, is controllable for four more years beyond the current season. Kirby (3.49 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate) has an additional five seasons of control remaining. Miller (3.96 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate in 75 innings) and Woo (4.91 ERA but a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 44 innings) would each come with six seasons of control beyond the current year. Both Miller and Woo were ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects at the time of their respective promotions.

The price to acquire any of those arms would surely be steep; not only would the Mariners be seeking a controllable bat to plug into the lineup — they’d likely be seeking a high-end, all-around contributor. Reds fans have regularly asked in MLBTR chats about the possibility of shipping Jonathan India to the Mariners for one of those starters, for instance, but league-average offense at second base and three-plus years of control likely isn’t enough to sway Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to part with anywhere from four to six seasons of control over a big league starter. (Notably, Rosenthal suggests a trade of India is far likelier in the offseason than in the next few days.) The same could well apply to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson — another roughly league-average hitter with three-plus seasons of club control remaining.

Should the Mariners find an offer to their liking on any of their talented young arms, Rosenthal suggests they could call up Emerson Hancock from Double-A. The former sixth overall pick has a 4.26 ERA with solid but not eye-popping strikeout and walk numbers over 19 starts there. Rosenthal also floats the possibility of Seattle acquiring an impending free agent starter — perhaps in a Teoscar Hernandez swap with another win-now club — to step into a rotation spot vacated by a trade of a controllable arm. Marco Gonzales is currently on the injured list but could return later in the season; perhaps Robbie Ray will make it back from Tommy John surgery at some point next year.

While a deal involving one of Seattle’s controllable starters would be tough to pull off, trades of shorter-term veterans could be easier to line up. Reliever Paul Sewald is surely of interest to a number of clubs, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported tonight (on Twitter) that Seattle is signaling an openness to moving him.

Sewald has been one of the best relievers in the sport since breaking out with Seattle in 2021. He owns a 2.90 ERA in 170 2/3 innings in an M’s uniform. The right-hander has been effective in all three seasons, including an even 3.00 ERA over 42 frames this year. He’s striking out just under 36% of opponents against a modest 7.9% walk rate.

The 33-year-old righty is playing this season on a $4.1MM arbitration salary. He’s eligible for that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The asking price on Sewald obviously wouldn’t be as extreme as those on the M’s starters, but Seattle would surely aim high in those talks as well.

Mariners Keeping Bryan Woo In Rotation For Now

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Pitching prospect Bryan Woo’s debut with the Mariners didn’t go as either he or the team hoped earlier this week, as the 23-year-old righty was tagged for six runs in two innings by a formidable Rangers offense. However, with Marco Gonzales (flexor strain) and Robbie Ray (Tommy John surgery) sidelined, Woo will remain in the rotation for the time being, general manager Justin Hollander said last night (Twitter links via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

Woo is one of the more touted prospects in the Mariners’ system and showed why over the course of the nine Double-A starts that preceded his call to the big leagues. In that time, he pitched to a sterling 2.05 ERA with a 34.3% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, a 12.3% swinging-strike rate and just 0.41 homers per nine frames. Though he didn’t storm out of the gates like fellow rookie Bryce Miller, who also made the jump right from Double-A to the Majors, Woo will continue to start every fifth day for the time being.

To some extent, that’s largely due to lack of quality alternatives. Ray is done for the season, and while Gonzales’ injury is less severe — Hollander told Divish, Kramer and others that there’s no concern over his ulnar collateral ligament — he won’t be back anytime soon, either. Gonzales likened the injury to one that cost him about five weeks of the 2021 season, per Hollander. If this is indeed similar, he’ll likely be out beyond the 15-day minimum and require a minor league rehab stint before returning late this month or in early July.

Veteran righty Chris Flexen was a key member of Seattle’s rotation for much of the 2021-22 seasons, but he’s struggling through one of the worst seasons of his professional career. Currently pitching in long relief after four rough starts early in the year, Flexen has been rocked for a 7.13 ERA in 35 1/3 frames. His 16.8% strikeout rate is below average but right in line with his 2021-22 levels. However, his walk rate has spiked to 9.3% — his worst as a Mariner — and he’s been rocked for an alarming 2.04 homers per nine innings pitched.

A .351 average on balls in play hasn’t helped Flexen’s cause, and his 20.5% homer-to-flyball rate figures to drop off, given his career 10.8% mark in that regard. Still, his performance of late hasn’t justified another look in the rotation. After beginning his time in the bullpen with eight shout innings, Flexen has yielded runs in three straight outings, yielding a combined seven runs on ten hits (three of them homers) and three walks in his past six frames.

Further depth options for Seattle are also banged up. Right-hander Easton McGee underwent Tommy John surgery last month, and Hollander noted that veteran Tommy Milone and journeyman Jose Rodriguez are both on the minor league injured list at the moment. The same is true of prospect Taylor Dollard, who hasn’t pitched in Triple-A since mid-April. Former first-rounder Emerson Hancock is healthy in Double-A but has been wildly inconsistent this season; he’s sitting on a 5.44 ERA, though nearly all of the damage against him has been done in three starts that have seen him yield nine, seven and six runs. He has a 1.45 ERA in his other eight appearances — including six shutout frames with seven strikeouts last night — but it’s understandable if the Mariners feel Woo’s Double-A consistency makes him the better option at the moment.

As things stand, Seattle’s rotation is still on generally solid ground. Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have ranged from good to dominant thus far, and the aforementioned Miller’s career began in historic fashion through five starts before he was clobbered in his sixth and seventh outings. The club can also harbor some optimism that Gonzales will be able to return in relatively short order, though the veteran lefty has had his own struggles with consistency in 2023, leading to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings.

If there are further injuries and setbacks on the pitching staff, however, that could prove to impact the team’s direction at the trade deadline, which is now fewer than eight weeks away. The Mariners are currently sitting on a 30-30 record, placing them a hefty 10 games back of the first-place Rangers in the AL West but a more manageable five games out of a Wild Card spot. They’ve recently seen key bats like Julio Rodriguez, Ty France and Teoscar Hernandez come to life after extended slumps, but those surges have come in conjunction with alarming swoons from early contributors like Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh.

Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, De La Cruz, Rushing, Vientos, Keith

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Last week’s lead Big Hype Prospect, Andrew Abbott, is already on his way to the Majors. Let’s see if we can pull the trick two weeks in a row.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Colton Cowser, 23, OF, BAL (AAA)
186 PA, 8 HR 5 SB, .347/.484/.590

When he hit the injured list with a quad injury in mid-May, Cowser was playing his way into Major League consideration. Cowser returned to action over the weekend, going a combined 4-for-5 with two walks, a double, and a homer. He’s produced multiple hits in 14 of 39 games this season. Cedric Mullins is currently sidelined with a groin injury. Although replacement center fielder Aaron Hicks has played well in his absence, underlying metrics suggest Hicks is toast. The club also has a partial opening at designated hitter which can be filled on a more permanent basis by Anthony Santander. Cowser has the athletic ability to stick in center field, but he could be a truly plus defender in the outfield corners. There’s concern he’ll struggle against left-handed pitching early in his career. At worst case, he looks like a high-probability strong-side platoon hitter. That’s why he’s creeping towards Top 10 prospect status on many lists.

Elly De La Cruz, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (AAA)
186 PA, 12 HR, 11 SB, .297/.398/.633

My recent fantasy chat included at least a half dozen questions about when De La Cruz will debut. I don’t have any special insight into the Reds thought process. The decision is complex, made even more so due to new service time and draft pick compensation rules. Role playing as the Reds, there is a certain attractiveness to following the Corbin Carroll model. As you’ll recall, Carroll debuted in late-August and performed decently in his debut. He’s now on pace to handily win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The timing of his initial promotion ensured he would be club-controlled through 2028 (a contract extension has since further extended the Diamondbacks control). A later debut for De La Cruz would ensure he’s under control through at least 2029.

Were it up to me, he would be in the Majors tomorrow. Of all prospects in the minors, he has the least to prove. To my eyes, he’s the most physically impressive prospect since Fernando Tatis Jr. Among his most impressive traits are a 93.4-mph average exit velocity with a 118.8-mph max EV. This season, Matt Olson leads the league with a hardest-hit ball of 118.6-mph.

Dalton Rushing, 22, C, LAD (A+)
188 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .261/.431/.507

Rushing has followed up a wild 2022 debut with an impressive, discipline-forward performance. Defensive reviews of the left-handed hitting catching prospect skew vaguely negative. He’s a high-effort receiver who will need to work hard to polish his game. Since his bat is so advanced, a move to a corner position might be required so he can progress through the minors at a more rapid pace. The Dodgers are blessed with a number of highly regarded catchers. They can certainly afford for Rushing to play elsewhere. It might be advisable to get Rushing’s bat in Double-A before he becomes too accustomed to a 19.7 percent walk rate. Discipline is an excellent trait to possess, but it needs to be coupled with selective aggression within the strike zone.

For clarity the speculation about Rushing moving off catcher is my own based on the Dodgers inventory. I’ve not seen a scout suggest it’s necessary.

Mark Vientos, 23, DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 166 PA, 13 HR, .333/.416/.688

Vientos possesses (and gets to) incredibly consistent power in-game. Although he’s only hitting .188/.206/.281 in 34 plate appearances, his exit velocities (96.1-mph average, 112.8-mph max) tell another story. Among hitters with over 30 plate appearances, only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have tallied higher average exit velocities. While it’s in part a small sample fluke, Vientos did average 94.5-mph in Triple-A. The flaws in his game could limit his ceiling. In particular, he tends to make low-angle, pulled contact. He’s expected to be strikeout prone. He could find himself cast as a second-division starter or limited to facing certain pitcher types.

Colt Keith, 21, 3B, DET (AA)
217 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, .321/.396/.563

Keith has built upon a breakout 2022 in High-A by doing much the same in Double-A. He’s even trimmed three points from his swinging strike rate. There’s risk he’ll continue to move down the defensive spectrum. He was being trained as a second baseman last season, but he’s made only three starts at the keystone in 2023. His bat is his carrying characteristic, fueled by plus discipline and a willingness to ambush mistakes in the zone. Wherever he winds up defensively, his bat looks like it will play in the Majors.

Three More

Bryan Woo, SEA (23): The Mariners opted to jump Woo straight from Double-A for his debut last Saturday. His performance in Double-A was masterful (44 innings, 2.05 ERA). His first start, not so much (2 IP, 7 H, 6 R). Scouts have long loved the life and shape of his fastball. His slider and changeup remain works in progress.

Chase Hampton, NYY (21): One of the top-performing pitching prospects in the minors, Hampton is beginning to draw attention from scouts. His mid-90s fastball reportedly tunnels well with a plus slider and curve. As with many young power pitchers, his changeup lags behind his other offerings. Hampton has an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate in High-A.

Luken Baker, STL (26): A former second-round draft pick, Baker experienced a breakthrough in Triple-A this season, bashing 18 home runs in 244 plate appearances. He produced a 92.8-mph average and 113.5-mph max EV. Baker made his debut as the designated hitter on Sunday.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Mariners To Promote Bryan Woo

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TODAY: The Mariners made the move official, selecting Woo’s contract and placing Gonzales on the 15-day IL with a forearm strain. To clear room for Woo on the 40-man roster, right-hander Easton McGee was transferred to the 60-day IL.

June 2: The Mariners are calling up pitching prospect Bryan Woo to start tomorrow’s game against the Rangers, tweets Corey Brock of the Athletic. Left-hander Marco Gonzales was slated to start but has been scratched with a forearm issue. It seems likely he’ll hit the 15-day injured list in a corresponding move, though that hasn’t yet been announced.

Woo, 23, is in the majors for the first time. A sixth round pick in 2021 out of Cal Poly, Woo has significantly elevated his stock in pro ball. He posted huge strikeout numbers in the low minors last season, cementing himself as one of the better prospects in the Seattle farm system. Baseball America slotted Woo seventh among M’s prospects over the offseason, praising his three-pitch arsenal and athleticism.

BA suggests Woo could settle in as a back-of-the-rotation starter at his peak. Keith Law of the Athletic credited Woo with mid-rotation upside but suggested spotty command could eventually push him towards a relief role. He’ll break into the big leagues as a starter, making the jump directly past Triple-A in the process.

The right-hander has made nine starts for Double-A Arkansas on the season. He’s posted a brilliant 2.05 ERA through 44 innings with an excellent 34% strikeout rate. Woo has kept his free passes to a 7% clip, a particularly promising development considering the strike-throwing questions some evaluators expressed over the winter.

Seattle has already gotten strong results from one rookie righty this season. Bryce Miller has excelled through six starts, adding an exciting complement to their already fantastic trio of Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. Gonzales has had a tougher go as the fifth starter, posting a 5.22 ERA over 50 innings.

While Gonzales has never missed many bats, he’s posted solid back-of-the-rotation numbers for the bulk of his Seattle tenure. He’s an excellent strike-thrower and has typically been durable. He missed around a month during the 2021 season with a forearm strain, however, and he’s again battling forearm issues. The extent of the injury is to be determined, as Brock notes he’s headed for further evaluation.

Chris Flexen filled in the rotation earlier this season. He struggled and was moved to the bullpen and fared much better in long relief. Flexen hasn’t pitched in four days and could’ve been an option to take a spot start in Gonzales’ stead, but the M’s have elected to dip into their farm system for one of their most talented young arms.

Woo won’t reach a full year of service time even if he’s up for good. He’ll be controllable through at least 2029 and wouldn’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2025 season at the earliest. Additional minor league assignments could push that timeline back.

The Mariners will need to formally add him to the 40-man roster tomorrow. Seattle is technically at capacity but could move either of Dylan Moore or Robbie Ray to the 60-day injured list without issue. Moore has already spent more than two months on the shelf; Ray is out for the season.

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