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Mariners “Rebuffed” Red Sox’ Interest In Young Starting Pitchers

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The Red Sox’ offseason search for starting pitching hasn’t yet produced any results, although that’s in large part due to the holdup that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is placing on the market. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe breaks down the Sox’ interest in Yamamoto and the manner in which said interest has thus far prevented them from making offers elsewhere on the market (e.g. Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez). With Boston hoping to lure Yamamoto to Fenway Park, it’s at least understandable if the team doesn’t feel comfortable putting forth offers in the vicinity that those other pitchers signed — ranging from $75MM to $172MM — while simultaneously keeping enough powder dry to put forth the type of massive offer Yamamoto will command.

The Yamamoto interest hasn’t been as much of a detriment on a trade market that has largely remained idle, however. Speier reports that the Sox approached the Mariners about their cadre of controllable starting pitchers but were generally rebuffed. Whether that was due to the quality of their offer (or lack thereof), or simply due to the Mariners being unwilling to move someone from the George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo quartet isn’t clear.

However, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested at last week’s Winter Meetings that a trade of one of their young big league starters doesn’t seem likely (link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). Dipoto acknowledged “constant” inquiries regarding his young rotation before casting doubt on whether he’d actually make a move involving anyone from the bunch.

“We’ll see what the market bears,” said Dipoto, who’s entering his ninth season as the leader of Mariners baseball operations. “We are going to lean into the thing we do well, and if opportunity presents itself, we have to listen. But by and large, we pitch it; we catch it. We’re very good at developing young players, and we’re going to continue to focus on those things.”

On the one hand, the Mariners and Red Sox seem like natural trade partners. The Mariners are deep controllable young pitchers who’ve had MLB experience. The Red Sox have several promising, controllable hitters who’ve made their big league debuts already (e.g. Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela) and, in some cases, had a good bit of success.

The price to acquire controllable young pitching is always steep, however — particularly when talking about players who’ve already had as much success as Kirby and Gilbert or those with six full seasons of control, like Miller and Woo. The Mariners could well prefer more established hitters. Similarly, the Sox might be loath to part with much in the way of immediate MLB production in the lineup, as the free-agent market isn’t exactly deep in bats to replace any outgoing hitters.

To be clear, there’s no indication the two parties can’t or won’t revisit talks — just as there’s no indication the Mariners will staunchly turn away any and all inquiries on their excellent rotation. To the contrary, Dipoto acknowledged to Jude that for the “right player” with another club, the Mariners “will consider just about anything.”

It’s been a generally quiet offseason for both teams in terms of notable additions. Boston has picked up Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals, but the offseasons of Boston and particularly Seattle thus far have drawn more headlines for their subtractions than their new acquisitions. The Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the archrival Yankees, while the M’s have traded away Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales. In doing so, they’ve substantially reduced the team strikeout rate and freed up some resources to perhaps bring in some offense via the free-agent and/or trade market. Seattle has been connected to free agents Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez over the past week, while rumored trade interest has included the likes of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Naylor and (before he was traded to Boston) O’Neill. The Red Sox, meanwhile, continue to search for ways to upgrade their starting staff.

Mariners Sign Luke Weaver To Major League Deal, Transfer Emerson Hancock To 60-Day IL

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The Mariners announced a series of roster moves today, reinstating right-hander Bryan Woo from the injured list and signing righty Luke Weaver to a major league deal. To open two active roster spots, they optioned righties Eduard Bazardo and Darren McCaughan. To open a 40-man spot for Weaver, righty Emerson Hancock has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

It’s a belated birthday present for Weaver, who just turned 30 years old yesterday. He was recently released by the Reds, who had signed him to a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason. Unfortunately, his 21 starts for Cincinnati resulted in him allowing 6.87 earned runs per nine innings. His 7.6% walk rate was solid but he only struck out 19% of batters faced. Home runs were a particular problem as he allowed 24 balls to sail over the fence in that time, easily a career high for him.

The Mariners were planning to utilize a six-man rotation when Woo returned from the injured list, joining Hancock, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, but Hancock’s injury threw a wrench in those plans. He landed on the injured list yesterday due to a shoulder strain and it seems the club isn’t expecting him back soon. Today’s transfer makes him officially ineligible to return until the middle of October. His season is now effectively over unless the club goes on a World Series run and he gets healthy enough in the next two months to put himself in position to rejoin the roster. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports that his recovery will take at least four to six weeks.

The club could simply go with a five-man rotation, though there are reasons why they might still prefer six. Both Miller and Woo are rookies who are pushing towards uncharted territory in terms of innings pitched in a season. Last year was Miller’s first full professional season and he was able to toss 133 2/3 frames. This year, between the majors and minors, he’s up to 117 1/3 already. Woo, meanwhile, tossed 67 2/3 last year and is already up to 99 innings this year between Double-A and the majors. Kirby was a rookie last year and logged 130 major league innings plus another 26 2/3 in the minors, and is at 150 2/3 this year.

Going with a six-man rotation would soften some of the workload concerns and the potential for fatigue down the stretch. Perhaps that is why they have brought Weaver aboard. Though his results haven’t been good this year, a change of venue would likely help him to some degree. Looking at Statcast’s park factors, the Mariners have one of the more pitching-friendly home parks while the Reds are on the other end of the spectrum, especially when it comes to home runs.

It’s also possible that the Mariners are planning to implement Weaver out of the bullpen, a role in which he’s showed some encouraging signs in the past. With the Diamondbacks and Royals last year, he had an ERA of 6.56 overall, but that included one start in which he allowed nine earned runs. As a reliever, he had a 4.78 ERA and may have deserved even better. He had a 21.7% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 40.4% ground ball rate and didn’t surrender a home run at all. But a .404 batting average on balls in play and 64.9% strand rate pushed some extra runs across the plate, with his 2.46 FIP suggesting he was perhaps better than his ERA would indicate.

Regardless of his role, it’s a low-risk move for the M’s financially. Since the Reds released Weaver, they remain on the hook for what’s left of his $2MM salary, while the Mariners will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster. That amount will be subtracted from what the Reds pay.

Mariners Place Emerson Hancock On Injured List

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2:17pm: The Mariners announced that Hancock has been placed on the 15-day IL due to a shoulder strain. A timeline hasn’t yet been provided. Seattle has also reinstated shortstop J.P. Crawford from the injured list, recalled righty Darren McCaughan from Triple-A Tacoma and optioned infielder/outfielder Sam Haggerty to Tacoma.

12:20pm: Mariners righty Emerson Hancock left yesterday’s game — just the third start of his big league career — after two shutout innings due to what the team announced as a right shoulder strain. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that Hancock is likely headed to the injured list with a lat injury of some degree. The team hasn’t yet formally announced that move.

Hancock, 24, looked like he was breezing through his first two innings, holding the Astros scoreless and yielding just two hits with two strikeouts on 31 pitches. Manager Scott Servais told Divish and others after the game that Hancock felt something “grab” in his shoulder/lat during that second frame, however.

An injury to Hancock all but derails the Mariners’ plans to move to a six-man rotation before the arrangement ever got underway. Right-hander Bryan Woo is expected to return from the injured list this week, but his activation will now simply push Seattle back to five starters. He’ll join Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller in Servais’ starting five.

The advent of a six-man rotation might have allowed the Mariners to more organically manage the workloads of young starters like Hancock, Kirby, Miller and Woo. The Mariners could still go the six-man route if they’re comfortable giving regular starts to righty Adam Oller or journeyman left-hander Tommy Milone down the stretch, but it’s not clear whether either of those scenarios is under consideration.

An injury to Hancock at this stage of the season is rather ill-timed. The former No. 6 overall draft pick (2020) was just getting his feet wet in the Majors, and he’d also only recently surpassed his total workload from the 2022 season. Hancock has thrown a career-high 110 innings this year, and the Mariners surely hoped to push that number a bit further in hopes of building him up for a larger workload in subsequent seasons. They may still get that chance, depending on the severity of the injury in question, but even a minimal stay on the injured list would sideline Hancock into early September and cost him a couple of starts.

The Mariners’ success in 2023 is largely attributable to both the quality and depth of their starting pitching staff. Seattle starters rank sixth in the Majors with a 3.86 ERA and are one of just three teams with 700-plus innings from their rotation at present, trailing only the Twins and Astros in that regard — and each by a margin of two or fewer innings. Had Hancock not incurred this injury, Mariners starters may well lead the big leagues in innings pitched.

Assuming the IL stint indeed goes through, Hancock will join southpaws Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales on the shelf. Woo is also on the IL at the moment, though the expectation has been that he’ll return this week.

The Mariners have been baseball’s hottest team this month, churning out 14 wins against four losses. That follows up a similarly hot July, where their 17 wins were tied for the most in baseball. Dating back to July 1, the Mariners have played at an outstanding 31-13 clip. They’re now in possession of the third and final AL Wild Card spot and sit just three games back of the division lead in an increasingly tight AL West race.

West Notes: Kinley, Hancock, Hudson

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Rockies right-hander Tyler Kinley was placed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation earlier today, as noted by Luke Zahlmann of the Denver Gazette. While additional details of Kinley’s injury and his timetable for return are currently unclear, it’s a devastating blow for the 32-year-old righty, who made just seven appearances this season after working his way back from elbow surgery, which he underwent last June. Prior to his surgery, Kinley appeared to be something of a revelation out of the Rockies’ bullpen last year, with a dazzling 0.75 ERA, 1.74 FIP, and a 27% strikeout rate in 25 appearances with Colorado in 2022.

That strong showing led the club to extend Kinley last November with a contract that guaranteed him $6.25MM over the 2023-25 seasons. Now, it seems likely that the first of those seasons, at least, will bear little fruit. In his seven trips to the mound this season, Kinley struggled badly to a 9.53 ERA with two home runs allowed in 5 1/3 innings, though that of course is a small sample size immediately following a significant layoff from big league action. With the 2023 campaign already essentially lost for the 48-75 Rockies, the club’s top priority regarding Kinley seems likely to be ensuring he’s fully healthy and ready to go for the 2024 campaign.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock exited today’s start against the Astros after just 31 pitches with a right shoulder strain, per a club announcement. While the club has not yet indicated whether Hancock will require a trip to the injured list, that seems to be the most likely outcome. After all, the 24-year-old Hancock is just three starts into his big league career and has already eclipsed his previous career-high for total innings with 110 frames of work between the majors and minors this season. If Hancock does require a trip to the shelf, the Mariners are well-equipped to weather the injury with fellow youngster Bryan Woo expected to be activated from the injured list later this week.
  • Dodgers right-hander Daniel Hudson has managed just three innings of work this season thanks to first a torn ACL and then a sprained MCL, but the veteran hurler tells Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that he’s hopeful he can return to the Dodgers in time to be part of the club’s postseason bullpen. If that comes to pass, Hudson would surely provide a boost to the relief corps in LA. While Dodgers relievers rank 10th in the majors with a solid 3.85 ERA, the club’s bullpen has also handled the third-most innings of work in the NL this year, leaving them potentially vulnerable to losing steam as the season heads toward the stretch run. While Hudson seems focused on a comeback attempt this year, the 36-year-old also acknowledged that he’s contemplating the end of his playing days, noting that he’s “been in pretty consistent pain for about 15 months.” With that being said, Hudson ultimately was noncommittal on his plans post-2023, saying, “…maybe I give it another shot. If not, I’ve had a pretty good run and it is what it is at that point.”

Mariners Planning To Use a Six-Man Rotation

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At some point in the coming days, the Mariners are planning to shift to a six-man rotation, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. Despite season-ending injuries to Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, and Easton McGee, the Mariners boast one of the deepest rotations in baseball. As Dipoto put it, “Our one through six in the starting rotation … can pitch with anybody in the league.” That being said, most of Seattle’s starting pitchers are young and inexperienced; in other words, they could benefit from some extra rest.

The current starting five consists of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, and Emerson Hancock. Bryan Woo is expected to return from the injured list and rejoin the rotation early next week (Twitter link). Of those six, only Castillo and Gilbert had pitched a full major league season before this year. Miller, Hancock, and Woo are rookies, while Kirby, still just 25 years old, is on pace to pitch his first qualified season. He threw 130 innings last year in his rookie campaign.

As Jude reports, the Mariners plan to go with a six-man rotation once Woo comes back from the IL. He could have supplanted Hancock, who has struggled in his first two big league starts (5.40 ERA, 9.8% strikeout rate), but it seems Seattle is comfortable giving the top prospect a longer leash. However, Dipoto did mention that the team might “piggyback” Woo and Hancock down the stretch after trying out a six-man rotation for a week or two.

Additional rest will be most beneficial for Seattle’s young arms, but it should help the rest of the rotation, too. Castillo has been one of the more durable starters in baseball over the last six years, making 158 starts with a 3.58 ERA. Only six pitchers have thrown more innings in that time, so he could certainly use some time off. The same goes for Gilbert, who had thrown 338 2/3 big league innings before his 26th birthday. Since making his debut in 2021, he ranks tenth in the majors in starts and 15th in innings pitched. Dipoto acknowledged that Castillo, Gilbert, and Kirby will have to shoulder plenty of responsibility should the Mariners make the playoffs, and some extra rest now should help them stay fresh for a potential postseason run.

However, while this arrangement will benefit everyone in the rotation, it will make things harder on the bullpen. If the Mariners carry six starting pitchers, they will only have room for seven relievers on the 26-man roster. Furthermore, it’s not as if Seattle’s young starters have been pitching especially deep into games. Woo and Hancock are averaging exactly five innings per start, while Miller is averaging five and a third. Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert are averaging about six innings per start, but those three will pitch less often with a six-man rotation. Thus, the bullpen will have a heavier load to carry for as long as the six-man rotation experiment lasts.

Thankfully for Seattle, they have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Mariners relievers rank second in ERA and third in FanGraphs WAR, and they’ve still had excellent results since losing closer Paul Sewald, pitching to a 1.89 ERA since the trade deadline. Moreover, they have essentially been using a seven-man bullpen as it is. Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, Justin Topa, Isaiah Campbell, and Gabe Speier have combined to pitch 45 2/3 of the 47 2/3 innings the Mariners bullpen has thrown since August 1. The Mariners will be counting on those seven to handle a difficult workload for the next while, but eventually, they should get some relief if Woo and Hancock do, in fact, move into a piggyback arrangement.

Gonzales and Ray are expected to rejoin the club at some point in 2024, at which point the Mariners will have an embarrassment of riches in the starting rotation. Gonzales is under team control through 2025, while Ray is signed through 2026. Castillo, meanwhile, is signed through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028. Gilbert is also under team control through 2027, Kirby through 2028, and the rookies through at least 2029 (pending further optional assignments).

With so many capable starters (and so many arms that will need a 40-man spot over the winter), there’s a good chance Dipoto will look to make a trade. The Mariners were reportedly willing to consider dealing one of their starting pitchers this summer, and they’ll have a better opportunity to do so over the offseason. The Cardinals, who have a surplus of young hitters but not nearly enough pitching, could be an interesting trade partner. They will be looking to add multiple starters this winter, and they were already linked to Gilbert earlier this year.

Mariners Claim Ryan Jensen, Release Matt Festa

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August 9: The Mariners announced that Festa has indeed cleared waivers and become a free agent.

August 8, 9:56pm: Festa’s transaction log at MLB.com indicates he has been placed on release waivers, as required. If he goes unclaimed, he’ll be a free agent later in the week.

3:20pm: The Mariners announced a series of transactions today, claiming right-hander Ryan Jensen off waivers from the Cubs and recalling righty Ryder Ryan from Triple-A. Jensen will report to Triple-A Tacoma. Righty Bryan Woo was placed on the 15-day injured list with right forearm inflammation, retroactive to August 5, while righty Matt Festa was designated for assignment in corresponding moves.

Jensen, 25, was a first-round pick of the Cubs, getting selected 27th overall in 2019. He quickly became considered one of the top 10 prospects in the club’s system though his stock has fallen since then thanks to some mediocre results.

After the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020, Jensen split 2021 between High-A and Double-A with a 4.16 ERA. Last year, he made 17 Double-A starts with a 4.25 ERA, striking out 23.2% of batters faced while walking 15.1% of them. Nonetheless, the Cubs still had enough belief in him to give him a 40-man roster spot in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Here in 2023, things haven’t gone much better. He made six Double-A starts at the beginning of the year but had a 5.31 ERA in those. In early May, he was moved to the bullpen and has since been promoted to Triple-A, but he has a combined 6.06 ERA in 32 2/3 innings since that time. He has struck out 26.2% of opponents since that bullpen move but given free passes at a 17.7% rate.

It had not been publicly reported that the Cubs removed Jensen from their roster, but they evidently tried to quietly sneak him through waivers with the M’s swooping in to snap him up. They will presumably try to get him to rein in his recent control issues and get him back on a good track.

In order to grab Jensen, the M’s are risking losing Festa, who has now been removed from the roster. He has 89 major league appearances from 2019 to the present season, posting a 4.32 ERA in those. He struck out 29.2% of batters faced last year but also allowed 10 home runs and finished the year with a 4.17 ERA.

Here in 2023, he’s spent most of the season in Triple-A, with a 0.53 ERA in 34 innings. That’s come with a .114 batting average on balls in play and 91.9% strand rate, both of which are unsustainable. His 21.9% strikeout rate and 12.5% walk rate are both subpar, leading to a 4.81 FIP at that level.

According to his transactions tracker at MLB.com, he was placed on the minor league injured list last week. Since injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers and the trade deadline has passed, Festa should be released in the coming days. He’ll be out of options next year but has less than two years of service time, meaning he could be controlled for five future seasons by a club that gives him a roster spot.

Ryan, 28, was just added to the club’s 40-man roster last week. Despite getting that roster spot, they kept him in the minors initially though he will now get a chance to make his major league debut. He’s thrown 40 2/3 innings in Triple-A this year with a 3.54 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate.

As for Woo, the severity of his injury isn’t known, but this sheds some light on the earlier report that the M’s are promoting pitching prospect Emerson Hancock. It had been speculated by some that the club could potentially use a six-man rotation for a while, but now it seems a more straightforward situation where Hancock will step in for Woo.

Mariners Could Deal From Rotation, Open To Offers On Paul Sewald

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There’s been ample speculation surrounding the Mariners’ excellent young rotation since it was reported that the Cardinals had interest in 26-year-old righty Logan Gilbert. And while a trade involving one of Seattle’s talented arms could be a long shot due to the lofty asking price associated with all controllable young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the M’s would at least consider dealing from their stock in order to acquire a young hitter with several years of control remaining.

Seattle’s rotation features veteran ace Luis Castillo and a quartet of touted young righties: Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Gilbert and Kirby have largely established themselves as quality big league arms, while Miller and Woo have impressed during their rookie efforts.

Gilbert, sporting a 3.88 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 20 starts, is controllable for four more years beyond the current season. Kirby (3.49 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate) has an additional five seasons of control remaining. Miller (3.96 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate in 75 innings) and Woo (4.91 ERA but a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 44 innings) would each come with six seasons of control beyond the current year. Both Miller and Woo were ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects at the time of their respective promotions.

The price to acquire any of those arms would surely be steep; not only would the Mariners be seeking a controllable bat to plug into the lineup — they’d likely be seeking a high-end, all-around contributor. Reds fans have regularly asked in MLBTR chats about the possibility of shipping Jonathan India to the Mariners for one of those starters, for instance, but league-average offense at second base and three-plus years of control likely isn’t enough to sway Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to part with anywhere from four to six seasons of control over a big league starter. (Notably, Rosenthal suggests a trade of India is far likelier in the offseason than in the next few days.) The same could well apply to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson — another roughly league-average hitter with three-plus seasons of club control remaining.

Should the Mariners find an offer to their liking on any of their talented young arms, Rosenthal suggests they could call up Emerson Hancock from Double-A. The former sixth overall pick has a 4.26 ERA with solid but not eye-popping strikeout and walk numbers over 19 starts there. Rosenthal also floats the possibility of Seattle acquiring an impending free agent starter — perhaps in a Teoscar Hernandez swap with another win-now club — to step into a rotation spot vacated by a trade of a controllable arm. Marco Gonzales is currently on the injured list but could return later in the season; perhaps Robbie Ray will make it back from Tommy John surgery at some point next year.

While a deal involving one of Seattle’s controllable starters would be tough to pull off, trades of shorter-term veterans could be easier to line up. Reliever Paul Sewald is surely of interest to a number of clubs, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported tonight (on Twitter) that Seattle is signaling an openness to moving him.

Sewald has been one of the best relievers in the sport since breaking out with Seattle in 2021. He owns a 2.90 ERA in 170 2/3 innings in an M’s uniform. The right-hander has been effective in all three seasons, including an even 3.00 ERA over 42 frames this year. He’s striking out just under 36% of opponents against a modest 7.9% walk rate.

The 33-year-old righty is playing this season on a $4.1MM arbitration salary. He’s eligible for that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The asking price on Sewald obviously wouldn’t be as extreme as those on the M’s starters, but Seattle would surely aim high in those talks as well.

Mariners Keeping Bryan Woo In Rotation For Now

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Pitching prospect Bryan Woo’s debut with the Mariners didn’t go as either he or the team hoped earlier this week, as the 23-year-old righty was tagged for six runs in two innings by a formidable Rangers offense. However, with Marco Gonzales (flexor strain) and Robbie Ray (Tommy John surgery) sidelined, Woo will remain in the rotation for the time being, general manager Justin Hollander said last night (Twitter links via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

Woo is one of the more touted prospects in the Mariners’ system and showed why over the course of the nine Double-A starts that preceded his call to the big leagues. In that time, he pitched to a sterling 2.05 ERA with a 34.3% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, a 12.3% swinging-strike rate and just 0.41 homers per nine frames. Though he didn’t storm out of the gates like fellow rookie Bryce Miller, who also made the jump right from Double-A to the Majors, Woo will continue to start every fifth day for the time being.

To some extent, that’s largely due to lack of quality alternatives. Ray is done for the season, and while Gonzales’ injury is less severe — Hollander told Divish, Kramer and others that there’s no concern over his ulnar collateral ligament — he won’t be back anytime soon, either. Gonzales likened the injury to one that cost him about five weeks of the 2021 season, per Hollander. If this is indeed similar, he’ll likely be out beyond the 15-day minimum and require a minor league rehab stint before returning late this month or in early July.

Veteran righty Chris Flexen was a key member of Seattle’s rotation for much of the 2021-22 seasons, but he’s struggling through one of the worst seasons of his professional career. Currently pitching in long relief after four rough starts early in the year, Flexen has been rocked for a 7.13 ERA in 35 1/3 frames. His 16.8% strikeout rate is below average but right in line with his 2021-22 levels. However, his walk rate has spiked to 9.3% — his worst as a Mariner — and he’s been rocked for an alarming 2.04 homers per nine innings pitched.

A .351 average on balls in play hasn’t helped Flexen’s cause, and his 20.5% homer-to-flyball rate figures to drop off, given his career 10.8% mark in that regard. Still, his performance of late hasn’t justified another look in the rotation. After beginning his time in the bullpen with eight shout innings, Flexen has yielded runs in three straight outings, yielding a combined seven runs on ten hits (three of them homers) and three walks in his past six frames.

Further depth options for Seattle are also banged up. Right-hander Easton McGee underwent Tommy John surgery last month, and Hollander noted that veteran Tommy Milone and journeyman Jose Rodriguez are both on the minor league injured list at the moment. The same is true of prospect Taylor Dollard, who hasn’t pitched in Triple-A since mid-April. Former first-rounder Emerson Hancock is healthy in Double-A but has been wildly inconsistent this season; he’s sitting on a 5.44 ERA, though nearly all of the damage against him has been done in three starts that have seen him yield nine, seven and six runs. He has a 1.45 ERA in his other eight appearances — including six shutout frames with seven strikeouts last night — but it’s understandable if the Mariners feel Woo’s Double-A consistency makes him the better option at the moment.

As things stand, Seattle’s rotation is still on generally solid ground. Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have ranged from good to dominant thus far, and the aforementioned Miller’s career began in historic fashion through five starts before he was clobbered in his sixth and seventh outings. The club can also harbor some optimism that Gonzales will be able to return in relatively short order, though the veteran lefty has had his own struggles with consistency in 2023, leading to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings.

If there are further injuries and setbacks on the pitching staff, however, that could prove to impact the team’s direction at the trade deadline, which is now fewer than eight weeks away. The Mariners are currently sitting on a 30-30 record, placing them a hefty 10 games back of the first-place Rangers in the AL West but a more manageable five games out of a Wild Card spot. They’ve recently seen key bats like Julio Rodriguez, Ty France and Teoscar Hernandez come to life after extended slumps, but those surges have come in conjunction with alarming swoons from early contributors like Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh.

Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, De La Cruz, Rushing, Vientos, Keith

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Last week’s lead Big Hype Prospect, Andrew Abbott, is already on his way to the Majors. Let’s see if we can pull the trick two weeks in a row.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Colton Cowser, 23, OF, BAL (AAA)
186 PA, 8 HR 5 SB, .347/.484/.590

When he hit the injured list with a quad injury in mid-May, Cowser was playing his way into Major League consideration. Cowser returned to action over the weekend, going a combined 4-for-5 with two walks, a double, and a homer. He’s produced multiple hits in 14 of 39 games this season. Cedric Mullins is currently sidelined with a groin injury. Although replacement center fielder Aaron Hicks has played well in his absence, underlying metrics suggest Hicks is toast. The club also has a partial opening at designated hitter which can be filled on a more permanent basis by Anthony Santander. Cowser has the athletic ability to stick in center field, but he could be a truly plus defender in the outfield corners. There’s concern he’ll struggle against left-handed pitching early in his career. At worst case, he looks like a high-probability strong-side platoon hitter. That’s why he’s creeping towards Top 10 prospect status on many lists.

Elly De La Cruz, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (AAA)
186 PA, 12 HR, 11 SB, .297/.398/.633

My recent fantasy chat included at least a half dozen questions about when De La Cruz will debut. I don’t have any special insight into the Reds thought process. The decision is complex, made even more so due to new service time and draft pick compensation rules. Role playing as the Reds, there is a certain attractiveness to following the Corbin Carroll model. As you’ll recall, Carroll debuted in late-August and performed decently in his debut. He’s now on pace to handily win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The timing of his initial promotion ensured he would be club-controlled through 2028 (a contract extension has since further extended the Diamondbacks control). A later debut for De La Cruz would ensure he’s under control through at least 2029.

Were it up to me, he would be in the Majors tomorrow. Of all prospects in the minors, he has the least to prove. To my eyes, he’s the most physically impressive prospect since Fernando Tatis Jr. Among his most impressive traits are a 93.4-mph average exit velocity with a 118.8-mph max EV. This season, Matt Olson leads the league with a hardest-hit ball of 118.6-mph.

Dalton Rushing, 22, C, LAD (A+)
188 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .261/.431/.507

Rushing has followed up a wild 2022 debut with an impressive, discipline-forward performance. Defensive reviews of the left-handed hitting catching prospect skew vaguely negative. He’s a high-effort receiver who will need to work hard to polish his game. Since his bat is so advanced, a move to a corner position might be required so he can progress through the minors at a more rapid pace. The Dodgers are blessed with a number of highly regarded catchers. They can certainly afford for Rushing to play elsewhere. It might be advisable to get Rushing’s bat in Double-A before he becomes too accustomed to a 19.7 percent walk rate. Discipline is an excellent trait to possess, but it needs to be coupled with selective aggression within the strike zone.

For clarity the speculation about Rushing moving off catcher is my own based on the Dodgers inventory. I’ve not seen a scout suggest it’s necessary.

Mark Vientos, 23, DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 166 PA, 13 HR, .333/.416/.688

Vientos possesses (and gets to) incredibly consistent power in-game. Although he’s only hitting .188/.206/.281 in 34 plate appearances, his exit velocities (96.1-mph average, 112.8-mph max) tell another story. Among hitters with over 30 plate appearances, only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have tallied higher average exit velocities. While it’s in part a small sample fluke, Vientos did average 94.5-mph in Triple-A. The flaws in his game could limit his ceiling. In particular, he tends to make low-angle, pulled contact. He’s expected to be strikeout prone. He could find himself cast as a second-division starter or limited to facing certain pitcher types.

Colt Keith, 21, 3B, DET (AA)
217 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, .321/.396/.563

Keith has built upon a breakout 2022 in High-A by doing much the same in Double-A. He’s even trimmed three points from his swinging strike rate. There’s risk he’ll continue to move down the defensive spectrum. He was being trained as a second baseman last season, but he’s made only three starts at the keystone in 2023. His bat is his carrying characteristic, fueled by plus discipline and a willingness to ambush mistakes in the zone. Wherever he winds up defensively, his bat looks like it will play in the Majors.

Three More

Bryan Woo, SEA (23): The Mariners opted to jump Woo straight from Double-A for his debut last Saturday. His performance in Double-A was masterful (44 innings, 2.05 ERA). His first start, not so much (2 IP, 7 H, 6 R). Scouts have long loved the life and shape of his fastball. His slider and changeup remain works in progress.

Chase Hampton, NYY (21): One of the top-performing pitching prospects in the minors, Hampton is beginning to draw attention from scouts. His mid-90s fastball reportedly tunnels well with a plus slider and curve. As with many young power pitchers, his changeup lags behind his other offerings. Hampton has an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate in High-A.

Luken Baker, STL (26): A former second-round draft pick, Baker experienced a breakthrough in Triple-A this season, bashing 18 home runs in 244 plate appearances. He produced a 92.8-mph average and 113.5-mph max EV. Baker made his debut as the designated hitter on Sunday.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Mariners To Promote Bryan Woo

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TODAY: The Mariners made the move official, selecting Woo’s contract and placing Gonzales on the 15-day IL with a forearm strain. To clear room for Woo on the 40-man roster, right-hander Easton McGee was transferred to the 60-day IL.

June 2: The Mariners are calling up pitching prospect Bryan Woo to start tomorrow’s game against the Rangers, tweets Corey Brock of the Athletic. Left-hander Marco Gonzales was slated to start but has been scratched with a forearm issue. It seems likely he’ll hit the 15-day injured list in a corresponding move, though that hasn’t yet been announced.

Woo, 23, is in the majors for the first time. A sixth round pick in 2021 out of Cal Poly, Woo has significantly elevated his stock in pro ball. He posted huge strikeout numbers in the low minors last season, cementing himself as one of the better prospects in the Seattle farm system. Baseball America slotted Woo seventh among M’s prospects over the offseason, praising his three-pitch arsenal and athleticism.

BA suggests Woo could settle in as a back-of-the-rotation starter at his peak. Keith Law of the Athletic credited Woo with mid-rotation upside but suggested spotty command could eventually push him towards a relief role. He’ll break into the big leagues as a starter, making the jump directly past Triple-A in the process.

The right-hander has made nine starts for Double-A Arkansas on the season. He’s posted a brilliant 2.05 ERA through 44 innings with an excellent 34% strikeout rate. Woo has kept his free passes to a 7% clip, a particularly promising development considering the strike-throwing questions some evaluators expressed over the winter.

Seattle has already gotten strong results from one rookie righty this season. Bryce Miller has excelled through six starts, adding an exciting complement to their already fantastic trio of Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. Gonzales has had a tougher go as the fifth starter, posting a 5.22 ERA over 50 innings.

While Gonzales has never missed many bats, he’s posted solid back-of-the-rotation numbers for the bulk of his Seattle tenure. He’s an excellent strike-thrower and has typically been durable. He missed around a month during the 2021 season with a forearm strain, however, and he’s again battling forearm issues. The extent of the injury is to be determined, as Brock notes he’s headed for further evaluation.

Chris Flexen filled in the rotation earlier this season. He struggled and was moved to the bullpen and fared much better in long relief. Flexen hasn’t pitched in four days and could’ve been an option to take a spot start in Gonzales’ stead, but the M’s have elected to dip into their farm system for one of their most talented young arms.

Woo won’t reach a full year of service time even if he’s up for good. He’ll be controllable through at least 2029 and wouldn’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2025 season at the earliest. Additional minor league assignments could push that timeline back.

The Mariners will need to formally add him to the 40-man roster tomorrow. Seattle is technically at capacity but could move either of Dylan Moore or Robbie Ray to the 60-day injured list without issue. Moore has already spent more than two months on the shelf; Ray is out for the season.

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