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Mariners Notes: Urias, Woo, Miller

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Mariners infielder Luis Urias exited last night’s game after taking a 94 mph fastball of his left wrist, but the Mariners announced that he’s been diagnosed with a contusion. X-rays on the wrist were negative, per MLB.com, and he’ll be considered day-to-day for the time being.

The 26-year-old Urias has gotten out to a .160/.300/.400 start this season, striking out 11 times in 30 plate appearances (36.7%) — an uncharacteristically high rate for a player who entered the season with a career 21.6% strikeout rate.

The Mariners entered the season envisioning a platoon of the righty-swinging Urias and lefty-hitting Josh Rojas — a more contact-oriented pairing than the more boom-or-bust nature of since-traded third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Rojas has been one of the team’s bright spots, hitting .311/.392/.422 (148 wRC+) in 51 trips to the plate thus far. Only four of those plate appearances have come against lefties, but if Urias is sidelined for a bit, Rojas could get some more reps against southpaws. Seattle doesn’t have many lefty opponents on the immediate horizon, though they’re slated to face Andrew Heaney on Thursday.

Elsewhere on the injury front, the M’s are getting closer to welcoming righty Bryan Woo back to the staff. The right-hander made his first minor league rehab appearance with Triple-A Tacoma last night, and as broadcaster Mike Curto points out, pitched three perfect innings while fanning five of his nine opponents.

Woo’s fastball ranged from 91-95 mph, per Curto, which is down from last year when he averaged 95.2 mph on his heater. That said, it’s also the first rehab start for a right-hander who’s yet to pitch this season while waiting for some elbow inflammation to calm down, so that’s not necessarily a massive red flag just yet. It’d be natural if he built closer to that velocity as he continued to ramp up over what could be multiple rehab starts between now and his activation.

In place of Woo in the rotation, Seattle has been relying on former top-10 pick Emerson Hancock, who’s posted a 6.10 ERA through four starts, although the vast majority of the damage came in one tough outing against the Brewers. Hancock has yielded a combined seven earned runs through 17 1/3 innings in his other three appearances but was lit up for an eight spot in just 3 1/3 innings that day. He’s sporting a well below-average 16.7% strikeout rate but also an exceptional 3.3% walk rate. Hancock is the least established arm in Seattle’s rotation, trailing Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller — so he’s likely to be the odd man out if everyone’s healthy when Woo returns.

Miller, in particular, has impressed the Mariners this year. He’s pitched to an electric 1.85 ERA with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 24 2/3 innings. Miller recently chatted with Adam Jude of the Seattle Times about his incorporation of a new splitter into his repertoire — a pitch that’s been flat-out dominant for the 25-year-old righty so far. Miller has thrown his new pitch at a 19.4% clip this season, finishing off 24 plate appearances with the pitch. Those 24 plate appearances have resulted in 21 outs — eight of them strikeouts — and yielded only three singles. Both Gilbert and Kirby began throwing splitters last season, and Miller has leaned on his teammates for advice and guidance when looking to master his new pitch.

“It kind of has a mind of its own sometimes, but I’ve been able to command it really well,” Miller tells Jude of his new weapon. “So, I’m really happy with it and I think it’s opened up a lot of things for me [against] lefties and righties.”

Bryan Woo To Begin Season On IL Due To Elbow Inflammation

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Mariners GM Justin Hollander spoke to reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) this evening and provided medical updates on several players. Most notably, Hollander revealed that right-hander Bryan Woo will open the season on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. Hollander added that Woo underwent an MRI which showed no damage to Woo’s UCL. Joining Woo on the injured list to open the season is outfielder Sam Haggerty, who the GM (as relayed by Divish) noted is dealing with a personal medical issue not related to baseball.

Hollander compared Woo’s current ailment to a bout of forearm inflammation that sent him to the shelf last August. Woo ended up missing just over two weeks due to that issue, a fact that potentially indicates the young right-hander could be slated for a similarly minimal absence this time around as well. Hollander noted that the club hopes the inflammation will have faded in 7 to 10 days, at which point Woo would be able to resume throwing.

Even a short absence for Woo is an unfortunate turn of events for Seattle. The 24-year-old righty made his MLB debut with the club last season and made 18 starts in the big leagues, pitching to a roughly league average 4.21 ERA with a 4.36 FIP in 87 2/3 innings of work. While Woo paired a solid 25.1% strikeout rate with an 8.4% walk rate, he saw a hefty 13.4% of his fly balls leave the yard for home runs last year. That proclivity toward the long ball limited Woo’s ability to establish himself as a mid-rotation starter, though even if he were to fail to take a step forward he’s shown the ability to be a quality back-end arm for a Mariners team loaded with controllable pitching talent.

With Woo set to begin the season on the shelf, Seattle figures to turn to right-hander Emerson Hancock to take the fifth spot in the rotation behind Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller. Hancock, the sixth-overall pick from the 2020 draft and a former consensus top-50 prospect in the sport, also made his big league debut last season. In a trio of starts with the Mariners, the right-hander posted a decent 4.50 ERA with a 4.09 FIP. He struck out six while walking three across his 12 innings of work. That cup of coffee in Seattle is Hancock’s only experience above the Double-A level, where he owns a career 3.99 ERA and 24.1% strikeout rate in 210 innings across 44 starts.

As for Haggerty, the loss of the switch-hitter to open the season could have an impact on the club’s bench mix. Since arriving in Seattle after being claimed off waivers from the Mets prior to the 2020 season, the 29-year-old has posted roughly league average offensive numbers in four years as a reserve outfielder with the Mariners. He’s done particularly well the past two seasons, slashing a solid .255/.345/.382 with a 111 wRC+ in a combined 135 games with the club.

While Haggerty’s switch-hitting bat and ability to handle all three outfield spots and even the right side of the infield on occasion have made him a valuable bench piece for Seattle in recent years, the Mariners appear well equipped to handle his absence. Julio Rodriguez is locked into center field on an everyday basis as the club’s star player, and with the likes of Mitch Haniger, Dylan Moore, Luke Raley, and Dominic Canzone vying for playing time at the outfield corners, Haggerty was at risk of being squeezed off the roster even prior to the injury.

In addition to the IL announcements, Hollander also provided an update on the status of right-hander Gregory Santos, who is nursing a lat strain that will keep him off the roster to open the 2024 campaign. Divish relays that Santos is scheduled to undergo an MRI later this week. If said testing comes back clean, Santos will then resume his throwing program. It’s a welcome update for a Mariners club that is expected to be without two high-leverage relievers in Santos and right-hander Matt Brash to open the season. Free agent addition Ryne Stanek and southpaw Gabe Speier figure to set up for right-handed flamethrower Andres Munoz while Santos and Brash are out of action.

Mariners Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Mariners have begun discussing a trade for right-hander Dylan Cease with the White Sox, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale suggests that the White Sox are seeking a package centered around one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, Seattle’s pair of cost-controlled righty starters. There’s no indications that a deal is particularly close or even likely, with Nightengale noting that the White Sox appear likely to retain Cease through the start of the 2024 season if a deal with Seattle doesn’t come together. That sentiment echoes other recent reports regarding Cease’s trade candidacy that have cast doubt on the likelihood he changes uniforms before Opening Day.

The report marks the first time the Mariners have been connected to Cease this winter. The right-hander has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this offseason with the Yankees, Reds, Orioles, and Red Sox among the clubs rumored to have had interest at one point or another. Despite that widespread interest, teams have largely appeared to balk at the high asking price the White Sox have set for Cease’s services. A report last month indicated that the club requested a package of four of the Cincinnati’s top prospects in negotiations with the Reds earlier this winter, and Nightengale added that talks between the White Sox and Orioles regarding Cease have “stopped” at this point in the offseason.

In negotiations with the Mariners, it appears the White Sox have pivoted from their previous ask of a hefty prospect package to instead focus on big-league ready talent. It’s an understandable move for the club to make. Woo and Miller are entering their age-24 and -25 seasons, respectively, coming off solid rookie campaigns with six seasons of team control remaining. Either righty would not only be able to immediately replace Cease in the club’s rotation mix, but would give the club another long-term asset to build around alongside star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Robert is under team control for the next four seasons.

As for Seattle, adding Cease to their starting staff would give the club perhaps the strongest rotation in the majors. Cease is coming off a relative down season on the mound where he posted a 4.58 ERA in 177 innings of work but is just one season removed from a 2022 campaign where he placed second in AL Cy Young award voting. Over the past three seasons, Cease sports a solid 3.54 ERA (121 ERA+) and 3.40 FIP with a 29.8% strikeout rate, numbers that paint him as a solid #2 starter. The 28-year-old would likely slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside Logan Gilbert behind ace Luis Castillo and young star George Kirby, with whichever of Woo or Miller remained with the Mariners rounding out the club’s starting rotation.

Replacing Miller or Woo with Cease in the rotation would provide the club with additional certainty in a rotation that figures to lean heavily on young players. The most experienced pitcher aside from Castillo who currently projects for the club’s starting rotation is Gilbert, who is entering just the fourth season of his career in 2024. Kirby has just two MLB seasons under his belt, while both Miller and Woo are entering their sophomore campaigns with just 25 and 18 big league starts respectively under their belts.

Cease, by contrast, has been among the most durable starters in the league in recent years with 97 starts over the past three seasons. For a team that has long valued starting pitching depth but parted with both Marco Gonzales while swapping Robbie Ray for Anthony DeSclafani earlier this offseason, bringing a durable veteran arm in place of a young player who has yet to make 30 starts in a big league season could provide the club with an opportunity to make up for the innings lost by parting with Gonzales and Ray.

On the other hand, it would nonetheless be something of a surprise to see Seattle part with one of their young, cost-controlled arms in a deal that wouldn’t address an area of greater need such as the club’s infield, where Josh Rojas and Luis Urias project to be the everyday starters at second and third base. In addition to shopping for another infielder to add to the club’s mix, the Mariners have expressed interest in fortifying their relief corps, which currently features Andres Munoz and Matt Brash as its back-end options after the club dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks last summer. Recent comments from president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also seemed to cast doubt on the possibility of a deal involving Miller or Woo, as he suggested that retaining the duo was “Plan A” for their offseason.

Mariners Still Exploring Infield, Bullpen Markets

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It’s been an active two weeks for the Mariners, who’ve recently signed Mitch Garver to a two-year deal and shipped out Robbie Ray and Jose Caballero in trades that brought Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani and Luke Raley back to Seattle. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said this weekend that while his team feels more complete now than at any point this offseason, he’s still open to subsequent additions (link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

More specifically, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Mariners are still hoping to acquire an infielder to make the club less reliant on the uncertain tandem of Luis Urias and Josh Rojas, who are currently projected to start at third base and second base, respectively. Seattle would also like to add a reliever, per Rosenthal, which Dipoto alluded to in his comments to Divish and others.

An infield upgrade is a sensible target for the M’s, given the volatility presented by both Urias and Rojas (and to a lesser extent, first baseman Ty France, who’s coming off a down season). From 2021-22, both Urias (.244/.340/.426, 111 wRC+) and Rojas (.266/.345/.401, 106 wRC+) were above-average performers at the plate, due in no small part to walk rates approaching 11%.

Rojas saw his walk rate drop to 7.7% in 2023, however, as he batted just .240/.303/.338 in 350 plate appearances. Urias maintained his walk rate but watched his hard-hit rate and exit velocity plummet en route to a middling .194/.337/.299 slash in 155 trips to the plate. Both players saw their strikeout rates tick up to near identical marks of 23.2% and 23.1% — slightly higher than league average but also well south of the 30%-plus rates of some names they shipped out in trades.

Both Rojas and Urias come with platoon issues of note, as well. The lefty-swinging Rojas has extremely similar rate stats against lefties and righties, with identical 93 wRC+ marks against each, but his production against lefties is contingent on a .361 average on balls in play that’s not likely to hold up. Rojas has punched out at an ugly 28.3% clip against southpaws compared to a 21% mark against righties and hit for more power when holding the platoon advantage as well (.098 ISO versus lefties, .122 versus righties). It’s the opposite for the right-handed Urias, who’s smacked southpaws at a .276/.353/.442 pace in his career but carries a .219/.326/.365 slash against right-handers.

Rojas and Urias are both capable of playing either second or third base, so there’s a potential platoon setup between the two. Alternatively, if the M’s succeed in adding a second or third baseman and prefer to go with one true starter at the other slot, both Rojas and Urias could profile as a potential utility option off the bench.

Because of the defensive flexibility the current group possesses, the Mariners could look for options at either second base or third base. Dipoto typically operates more on the trade market than on the free-agent market, though both provide myriad avenues to fill the team’s needs. Whit Merrifield stands as the top free agent at second base. The Mariners aren’t going to meet Matt Chapman’s asking price at third base, but Gio Urshela and Justin Turner would represent much more affordable alternatives. Any of that trio would meet the Mariners’ previously stated goal of improving the club’s contact rate (which hasn’t exactly been strictly adhered to, when looking at the acquisition of Raley in particular).

On the trade market, Minnesota’s Jorge Polanco is a natural target who could step in at second base (speculatively speaking, to be clear). The Twins are deep in controllable young infielders and looking to slightly scale back payroll due to the RSN collapse that’s impacting budgets around the league (including the Mariners). The switch-hitting Polanco is earning $10.5MM this season and has a $12MM option for the ’25 campaign. The Reds, Orioles, Cardinals and Guardians are also deep in infield talent and could be intrigued by Seattle’s stock of young arms. That said, Dipoto cast significant doubt on his willingness to move a controllable starting pitcher with his weekend comments.

“We did a lot of groundwork on what it might look like if we did trade one of those young starters, and we never liked the way it looked,” Dipoto said (via Divish). He called retaining his stock of young arms (e.g. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock) “Plan A” this offseason.

Within that same media session, Dipoto maintained an openness to further additions to the roster, speculatively rattling off the possibility of making “a fun addition in the bullpen” or more generally “an upgrade somewhere on the field that we don’t really have.” The Mariners have an imposing late-inning trio of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash and Justin Topa, but they’re relatively light on lefty options — with 28-year-old Gabe Speier and 30-year-old Tayler Saucedo as the only options on the 40-man roster. Both were solid in 2023, but neither had found any real MLB success prior to last season.

Dipoto has said previously that the Mariners’ 2024 payroll could increase over its 2023 levels, although a substantial increase hasn’t looked likely all winter. Ownership has rather clearly placed some fiscal constraints on Dipoto, GM Justin Hollander and the rest of the front office, as they’re among the many teams in the game facing financial uncertainty due to their own RSN situation.

Roster Resource currently projects a payroll of around $132MM for the Mariners, which sits about $8MM shy of last year’s end-of-season mark. Divish writes within his column that the Mariners want to leave some wiggle room for in-season additions, but there’s of course still some room beneath last year’s budget and the possibility that additional trades could further alter the current payroll outlook.

Mariners “Rebuffed” Red Sox’ Interest In Young Starting Pitchers

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The Red Sox’ offseason search for starting pitching hasn’t yet produced any results, although that’s in large part due to the holdup that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is placing on the market. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe breaks down the Sox’ interest in Yamamoto and the manner in which said interest has thus far prevented them from making offers elsewhere on the market (e.g. Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez). With Boston hoping to lure Yamamoto to Fenway Park, it’s at least understandable if the team doesn’t feel comfortable putting forth offers in the vicinity that those other pitchers signed — ranging from $75MM to $172MM — while simultaneously keeping enough powder dry to put forth the type of massive offer Yamamoto will command.

The Yamamoto interest hasn’t been as much of a detriment on a trade market that has largely remained idle, however. Speier reports that the Sox approached the Mariners about their cadre of controllable starting pitchers but were generally rebuffed. Whether that was due to the quality of their offer (or lack thereof), or simply due to the Mariners being unwilling to move someone from the George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo quartet isn’t clear.

However, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested at last week’s Winter Meetings that a trade of one of their young big league starters doesn’t seem likely (link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). Dipoto acknowledged “constant” inquiries regarding his young rotation before casting doubt on whether he’d actually make a move involving anyone from the bunch.

“We’ll see what the market bears,” said Dipoto, who’s entering his ninth season as the leader of Mariners baseball operations. “We are going to lean into the thing we do well, and if opportunity presents itself, we have to listen. But by and large, we pitch it; we catch it. We’re very good at developing young players, and we’re going to continue to focus on those things.”

On the one hand, the Mariners and Red Sox seem like natural trade partners. The Mariners are deep controllable young pitchers who’ve had MLB experience. The Red Sox have several promising, controllable hitters who’ve made their big league debuts already (e.g. Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela) and, in some cases, had a good bit of success.

The price to acquire controllable young pitching is always steep, however — particularly when talking about players who’ve already had as much success as Kirby and Gilbert or those with six full seasons of control, like Miller and Woo. The Mariners could well prefer more established hitters. Similarly, the Sox might be loath to part with much in the way of immediate MLB production in the lineup, as the free-agent market isn’t exactly deep in bats to replace any outgoing hitters.

To be clear, there’s no indication the two parties can’t or won’t revisit talks — just as there’s no indication the Mariners will staunchly turn away any and all inquiries on their excellent rotation. To the contrary, Dipoto acknowledged to Jude that for the “right player” with another club, the Mariners “will consider just about anything.”

It’s been a generally quiet offseason for both teams in terms of notable additions. Boston has picked up Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals, but the offseasons of Boston and particularly Seattle thus far have drawn more headlines for their subtractions than their new acquisitions. The Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the archrival Yankees, while the M’s have traded away Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales. In doing so, they’ve substantially reduced the team strikeout rate and freed up some resources to perhaps bring in some offense via the free-agent and/or trade market. Seattle has been connected to free agents Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez over the past week, while rumored trade interest has included the likes of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Naylor and (before he was traded to Boston) O’Neill. The Red Sox, meanwhile, continue to search for ways to upgrade their starting staff.

Mariners Sign Luke Weaver To Major League Deal, Transfer Emerson Hancock To 60-Day IL

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The Mariners announced a series of roster moves today, reinstating right-hander Bryan Woo from the injured list and signing righty Luke Weaver to a major league deal. To open two active roster spots, they optioned righties Eduard Bazardo and Darren McCaughan. To open a 40-man spot for Weaver, righty Emerson Hancock has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

It’s a belated birthday present for Weaver, who just turned 30 years old yesterday. He was recently released by the Reds, who had signed him to a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason. Unfortunately, his 21 starts for Cincinnati resulted in him allowing 6.87 earned runs per nine innings. His 7.6% walk rate was solid but he only struck out 19% of batters faced. Home runs were a particular problem as he allowed 24 balls to sail over the fence in that time, easily a career high for him.

The Mariners were planning to utilize a six-man rotation when Woo returned from the injured list, joining Hancock, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, but Hancock’s injury threw a wrench in those plans. He landed on the injured list yesterday due to a shoulder strain and it seems the club isn’t expecting him back soon. Today’s transfer makes him officially ineligible to return until the middle of October. His season is now effectively over unless the club goes on a World Series run and he gets healthy enough in the next two months to put himself in position to rejoin the roster. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports that his recovery will take at least four to six weeks.

The club could simply go with a five-man rotation, though there are reasons why they might still prefer six. Both Miller and Woo are rookies who are pushing towards uncharted territory in terms of innings pitched in a season. Last year was Miller’s first full professional season and he was able to toss 133 2/3 frames. This year, between the majors and minors, he’s up to 117 1/3 already. Woo, meanwhile, tossed 67 2/3 last year and is already up to 99 innings this year between Double-A and the majors. Kirby was a rookie last year and logged 130 major league innings plus another 26 2/3 in the minors, and is at 150 2/3 this year.

Going with a six-man rotation would soften some of the workload concerns and the potential for fatigue down the stretch. Perhaps that is why they have brought Weaver aboard. Though his results haven’t been good this year, a change of venue would likely help him to some degree. Looking at Statcast’s park factors, the Mariners have one of the more pitching-friendly home parks while the Reds are on the other end of the spectrum, especially when it comes to home runs.

It’s also possible that the Mariners are planning to implement Weaver out of the bullpen, a role in which he’s showed some encouraging signs in the past. With the Diamondbacks and Royals last year, he had an ERA of 6.56 overall, but that included one start in which he allowed nine earned runs. As a reliever, he had a 4.78 ERA and may have deserved even better. He had a 21.7% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 40.4% ground ball rate and didn’t surrender a home run at all. But a .404 batting average on balls in play and 64.9% strand rate pushed some extra runs across the plate, with his 2.46 FIP suggesting he was perhaps better than his ERA would indicate.

Regardless of his role, it’s a low-risk move for the M’s financially. Since the Reds released Weaver, they remain on the hook for what’s left of his $2MM salary, while the Mariners will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster. That amount will be subtracted from what the Reds pay.

Mariners Place Emerson Hancock On Injured List

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2:17pm: The Mariners announced that Hancock has been placed on the 15-day IL due to a shoulder strain. A timeline hasn’t yet been provided. Seattle has also reinstated shortstop J.P. Crawford from the injured list, recalled righty Darren McCaughan from Triple-A Tacoma and optioned infielder/outfielder Sam Haggerty to Tacoma.

12:20pm: Mariners righty Emerson Hancock left yesterday’s game — just the third start of his big league career — after two shutout innings due to what the team announced as a right shoulder strain. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that Hancock is likely headed to the injured list with a lat injury of some degree. The team hasn’t yet formally announced that move.

Hancock, 24, looked like he was breezing through his first two innings, holding the Astros scoreless and yielding just two hits with two strikeouts on 31 pitches. Manager Scott Servais told Divish and others after the game that Hancock felt something “grab” in his shoulder/lat during that second frame, however.

An injury to Hancock all but derails the Mariners’ plans to move to a six-man rotation before the arrangement ever got underway. Right-hander Bryan Woo is expected to return from the injured list this week, but his activation will now simply push Seattle back to five starters. He’ll join Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller in Servais’ starting five.

The advent of a six-man rotation might have allowed the Mariners to more organically manage the workloads of young starters like Hancock, Kirby, Miller and Woo. The Mariners could still go the six-man route if they’re comfortable giving regular starts to righty Adam Oller or journeyman left-hander Tommy Milone down the stretch, but it’s not clear whether either of those scenarios is under consideration.

An injury to Hancock at this stage of the season is rather ill-timed. The former No. 6 overall draft pick (2020) was just getting his feet wet in the Majors, and he’d also only recently surpassed his total workload from the 2022 season. Hancock has thrown a career-high 110 innings this year, and the Mariners surely hoped to push that number a bit further in hopes of building him up for a larger workload in subsequent seasons. They may still get that chance, depending on the severity of the injury in question, but even a minimal stay on the injured list would sideline Hancock into early September and cost him a couple of starts.

The Mariners’ success in 2023 is largely attributable to both the quality and depth of their starting pitching staff. Seattle starters rank sixth in the Majors with a 3.86 ERA and are one of just three teams with 700-plus innings from their rotation at present, trailing only the Twins and Astros in that regard — and each by a margin of two or fewer innings. Had Hancock not incurred this injury, Mariners starters may well lead the big leagues in innings pitched.

Assuming the IL stint indeed goes through, Hancock will join southpaws Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales on the shelf. Woo is also on the IL at the moment, though the expectation has been that he’ll return this week.

The Mariners have been baseball’s hottest team this month, churning out 14 wins against four losses. That follows up a similarly hot July, where their 17 wins were tied for the most in baseball. Dating back to July 1, the Mariners have played at an outstanding 31-13 clip. They’re now in possession of the third and final AL Wild Card spot and sit just three games back of the division lead in an increasingly tight AL West race.

West Notes: Kinley, Hancock, Hudson

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Rockies right-hander Tyler Kinley was placed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation earlier today, as noted by Luke Zahlmann of the Denver Gazette. While additional details of Kinley’s injury and his timetable for return are currently unclear, it’s a devastating blow for the 32-year-old righty, who made just seven appearances this season after working his way back from elbow surgery, which he underwent last June. Prior to his surgery, Kinley appeared to be something of a revelation out of the Rockies’ bullpen last year, with a dazzling 0.75 ERA, 1.74 FIP, and a 27% strikeout rate in 25 appearances with Colorado in 2022.

That strong showing led the club to extend Kinley last November with a contract that guaranteed him $6.25MM over the 2023-25 seasons. Now, it seems likely that the first of those seasons, at least, will bear little fruit. In his seven trips to the mound this season, Kinley struggled badly to a 9.53 ERA with two home runs allowed in 5 1/3 innings, though that of course is a small sample size immediately following a significant layoff from big league action. With the 2023 campaign already essentially lost for the 48-75 Rockies, the club’s top priority regarding Kinley seems likely to be ensuring he’s fully healthy and ready to go for the 2024 campaign.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock exited today’s start against the Astros after just 31 pitches with a right shoulder strain, per a club announcement. While the club has not yet indicated whether Hancock will require a trip to the injured list, that seems to be the most likely outcome. After all, the 24-year-old Hancock is just three starts into his big league career and has already eclipsed his previous career-high for total innings with 110 frames of work between the majors and minors this season. If Hancock does require a trip to the shelf, the Mariners are well-equipped to weather the injury with fellow youngster Bryan Woo expected to be activated from the injured list later this week.
  • Dodgers right-hander Daniel Hudson has managed just three innings of work this season thanks to first a torn ACL and then a sprained MCL, but the veteran hurler tells Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that he’s hopeful he can return to the Dodgers in time to be part of the club’s postseason bullpen. If that comes to pass, Hudson would surely provide a boost to the relief corps in LA. While Dodgers relievers rank 10th in the majors with a solid 3.85 ERA, the club’s bullpen has also handled the third-most innings of work in the NL this year, leaving them potentially vulnerable to losing steam as the season heads toward the stretch run. While Hudson seems focused on a comeback attempt this year, the 36-year-old also acknowledged that he’s contemplating the end of his playing days, noting that he’s “been in pretty consistent pain for about 15 months.” With that being said, Hudson ultimately was noncommittal on his plans post-2023, saying, “…maybe I give it another shot. If not, I’ve had a pretty good run and it is what it is at that point.”

Mariners Planning To Use a Six-Man Rotation

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At some point in the coming days, the Mariners are planning to shift to a six-man rotation, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. Despite season-ending injuries to Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, and Easton McGee, the Mariners boast one of the deepest rotations in baseball. As Dipoto put it, “Our one through six in the starting rotation … can pitch with anybody in the league.” That being said, most of Seattle’s starting pitchers are young and inexperienced; in other words, they could benefit from some extra rest.

The current starting five consists of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, and Emerson Hancock. Bryan Woo is expected to return from the injured list and rejoin the rotation early next week (Twitter link). Of those six, only Castillo and Gilbert had pitched a full major league season before this year. Miller, Hancock, and Woo are rookies, while Kirby, still just 25 years old, is on pace to pitch his first qualified season. He threw 130 innings last year in his rookie campaign.

As Jude reports, the Mariners plan to go with a six-man rotation once Woo comes back from the IL. He could have supplanted Hancock, who has struggled in his first two big league starts (5.40 ERA, 9.8% strikeout rate), but it seems Seattle is comfortable giving the top prospect a longer leash. However, Dipoto did mention that the team might “piggyback” Woo and Hancock down the stretch after trying out a six-man rotation for a week or two.

Additional rest will be most beneficial for Seattle’s young arms, but it should help the rest of the rotation, too. Castillo has been one of the more durable starters in baseball over the last six years, making 158 starts with a 3.58 ERA. Only six pitchers have thrown more innings in that time, so he could certainly use some time off. The same goes for Gilbert, who had thrown 338 2/3 big league innings before his 26th birthday. Since making his debut in 2021, he ranks tenth in the majors in starts and 15th in innings pitched. Dipoto acknowledged that Castillo, Gilbert, and Kirby will have to shoulder plenty of responsibility should the Mariners make the playoffs, and some extra rest now should help them stay fresh for a potential postseason run.

However, while this arrangement will benefit everyone in the rotation, it will make things harder on the bullpen. If the Mariners carry six starting pitchers, they will only have room for seven relievers on the 26-man roster. Furthermore, it’s not as if Seattle’s young starters have been pitching especially deep into games. Woo and Hancock are averaging exactly five innings per start, while Miller is averaging five and a third. Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert are averaging about six innings per start, but those three will pitch less often with a six-man rotation. Thus, the bullpen will have a heavier load to carry for as long as the six-man rotation experiment lasts.

Thankfully for Seattle, they have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Mariners relievers rank second in ERA and third in FanGraphs WAR, and they’ve still had excellent results since losing closer Paul Sewald, pitching to a 1.89 ERA since the trade deadline. Moreover, they have essentially been using a seven-man bullpen as it is. Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, Justin Topa, Isaiah Campbell, and Gabe Speier have combined to pitch 45 2/3 of the 47 2/3 innings the Mariners bullpen has thrown since August 1. The Mariners will be counting on those seven to handle a difficult workload for the next while, but eventually, they should get some relief if Woo and Hancock do, in fact, move into a piggyback arrangement.

Gonzales and Ray are expected to rejoin the club at some point in 2024, at which point the Mariners will have an embarrassment of riches in the starting rotation. Gonzales is under team control through 2025, while Ray is signed through 2026. Castillo, meanwhile, is signed through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028. Gilbert is also under team control through 2027, Kirby through 2028, and the rookies through at least 2029 (pending further optional assignments).

With so many capable starters (and so many arms that will need a 40-man spot over the winter), there’s a good chance Dipoto will look to make a trade. The Mariners were reportedly willing to consider dealing one of their starting pitchers this summer, and they’ll have a better opportunity to do so over the offseason. The Cardinals, who have a surplus of young hitters but not nearly enough pitching, could be an interesting trade partner. They will be looking to add multiple starters this winter, and they were already linked to Gilbert earlier this year.

Mariners Claim Ryan Jensen, Release Matt Festa

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August 9: The Mariners announced that Festa has indeed cleared waivers and become a free agent.

August 8, 9:56pm: Festa’s transaction log at MLB.com indicates he has been placed on release waivers, as required. If he goes unclaimed, he’ll be a free agent later in the week.

3:20pm: The Mariners announced a series of transactions today, claiming right-hander Ryan Jensen off waivers from the Cubs and recalling righty Ryder Ryan from Triple-A. Jensen will report to Triple-A Tacoma. Righty Bryan Woo was placed on the 15-day injured list with right forearm inflammation, retroactive to August 5, while righty Matt Festa was designated for assignment in corresponding moves.

Jensen, 25, was a first-round pick of the Cubs, getting selected 27th overall in 2019. He quickly became considered one of the top 10 prospects in the club’s system though his stock has fallen since then thanks to some mediocre results.

After the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020, Jensen split 2021 between High-A and Double-A with a 4.16 ERA. Last year, he made 17 Double-A starts with a 4.25 ERA, striking out 23.2% of batters faced while walking 15.1% of them. Nonetheless, the Cubs still had enough belief in him to give him a 40-man roster spot in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Here in 2023, things haven’t gone much better. He made six Double-A starts at the beginning of the year but had a 5.31 ERA in those. In early May, he was moved to the bullpen and has since been promoted to Triple-A, but he has a combined 6.06 ERA in 32 2/3 innings since that time. He has struck out 26.2% of opponents since that bullpen move but given free passes at a 17.7% rate.

It had not been publicly reported that the Cubs removed Jensen from their roster, but they evidently tried to quietly sneak him through waivers with the M’s swooping in to snap him up. They will presumably try to get him to rein in his recent control issues and get him back on a good track.

In order to grab Jensen, the M’s are risking losing Festa, who has now been removed from the roster. He has 89 major league appearances from 2019 to the present season, posting a 4.32 ERA in those. He struck out 29.2% of batters faced last year but also allowed 10 home runs and finished the year with a 4.17 ERA.

Here in 2023, he’s spent most of the season in Triple-A, with a 0.53 ERA in 34 innings. That’s come with a .114 batting average on balls in play and 91.9% strand rate, both of which are unsustainable. His 21.9% strikeout rate and 12.5% walk rate are both subpar, leading to a 4.81 FIP at that level.

According to his transactions tracker at MLB.com, he was placed on the minor league injured list last week. Since injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers and the trade deadline has passed, Festa should be released in the coming days. He’ll be out of options next year but has less than two years of service time, meaning he could be controlled for five future seasons by a club that gives him a roster spot.

Ryan, 28, was just added to the club’s 40-man roster last week. Despite getting that roster spot, they kept him in the minors initially though he will now get a chance to make his major league debut. He’s thrown 40 2/3 innings in Triple-A this year with a 3.54 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate.

As for Woo, the severity of his injury isn’t known, but this sheds some light on the earlier report that the M’s are promoting pitching prospect Emerson Hancock. It had been speculated by some that the club could potentially use a six-man rotation for a while, but now it seems a more straightforward situation where Hancock will step in for Woo.

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