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Heyman’s Latest: Greinke, Mattingly, QOs, Gordon, Anderson, Hunter

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Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off Friday morning with a pair of columns — the first being a piece on Zack Greinke’s opt-out status and the second being his weekly Inside Baseball column. Heyman writes in the first piece that Greinke will indeed opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM on his Dodgers contract, as has been widely anticipated for the better part of a year. One general manager suggested to Heyman that Greinke will receive, “at minimum,” multiple offers of $125MM over the next five seasons. That GM wagered a guess at the winning bid: $150MM over five years. Heyman notes that while many teams — the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, D-Backs and Rangers, among others — will be in the mix for Greinke this winter, the right-hander enjoyed 2015 with the Dodgers more than he enjoyed his first two seasons, and L.A. will attempt to bring him back. Per Heyman, Greinke didn’t mesh with Josh Beckett and Hanley Ramirez in previous years but had nothing but positive feelings about the 2015 campaign.

Onto some highlights from his second column…

  • There’s no certainty on the job status of Don Mattingly right now despite three consecutive division titles, Heyman writes. Mattingly is well-liked by the new Dodgers front office on a personal level, and the team is pleased with how he handled Andre Ethier’s shift to a part-time role, A.J. Ellis’ shift to a backup role in favor of Yasmani Grandal, and the emergence of Corey Seager over Jimmy Rollins late in the year. Mattingly’s people-managing skills are valued by the Dodgers, even if his in-game tactics aren’t quite as strong. Heyman notes that with the Dodgers unconvinced of Mattingly as their long-term option, they may allow him to interview with other clubs, and both the Nationals and Marlins would show interest.
  • The Orioles are believed to be hesitant to make a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters and will only do so if they’re convinced that he won’t take it. (I can’t imagine a Scott Boras client that plays a premium position in the midst of his prime age doing so under any circumstances.) The White Sox will make a QO to Jeff Samardzija, who will not accept it, as has been suggested multiple times over the past couple of months.
  • Colby Rasmus, on the other hand, is not expected to receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the Astros despite 25 regular-season homers and a strong postseason showing. Heyman writes that Alex Gordon will be “a name to keep an eye on” in connection with the Astros this offseason, as the team may look to inject its lineup with more on-base percentage and batting average than the 2015 crop. They’ll also look for more steady production at first and third base this winter after a season of boom-or-bust results from Luis Valbuena and Chris Carter.
  • The Dodgers are set on making a qualifying offer to Howie Kendrick and are also planning on making a QO to Brett Anderson despite his injury history. The latter of the two drew some surprise when Heyman shared it with execs around the league, though as he points out, L.A. is in need of pitching. If Anderson accepts — again, a scenario I find unlikely given his age and strong 2015 results — he’d solidify a spot in the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw. And, I’ll point out, Anderson’s 2016 salary would then check in just $3.4MM north of the $12.4MM he earned in total after receiving a $10MM base salary and earning another $2.4MM worth of innings-based incentives this season.
  • The Twins are willing to pay a premium to bring Torii Hunter back to their clubhouse if he’s willing to take a reduced role. Hunter, though, has been resistant to that idea in the past. He’s not yet decided whether or not he’ll return to the Majors for his age-41 season or call it a career.
  • Other qualifying offer notes from Heyman throughout the column indicate that Padres people have suggested that they’ll make a QO to Ian Kennedy, though rival execs remain skeptical. Current expectation in the industry is that the Mets won’t make a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy, and the same is true of the Nationals with regard to Denard Span, who suffered through an injury-shortened season. Kennedy and Murphy seem like easy calls to decline the qualifying offer to me, whereas Span is a tougher case due to his age and injuries, which included season-ending hip surgery. I can see a case for Span taking the $15.8MM payday — the initial contract extension he signed with the Twins, after all, was only for $16.5MM guaranteed, though that rose to $25MM after his 2016 option was exercised.
  • The Nationals have received permission from the Giants to interview bench coach Ron Wotus to fill their managerial vacancy. Wotus has coached on the Giants’ Major League staff for the past 17 seasons and is a two-time Minor League Manager of the Year.

ALDS Notes: Glass, Moore, Cueto, Cecil, Andrus, Carter

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Last night’s exciting end to the American League Division Series set up an intriguing matchup between the Royals and the Blue Jays. And it provides us an opportunity to take a look at some notes on the teams that just finished playing in the ALDS:

  • The Royals’ bold trade deadline moves paid off big in the ALDS, writes Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star. “This year, we believed we had a chance to do it, and to do it right and to fix what we didn’t get done last year,” said club owner David Glass. Mid-season trade acquisition Johnny Cueto was masterful last night, of course, while Ben Zobrist has been his steadily excellent self. “It’s difficult to give up the prospects, but … you go for it when you have a chance,” Glass added, explaining that he placed trust in GM Dayton Moore.
  • Glass heaped praise on Moore, explaining that the organization’s leaders always envisioned the creation of a multi-year contention window, as Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes. “When we hired Dayton, that was the plan all along,” he said. “We weren’t interested in just getting there one year and not getting back. That required a lot of patience on his part, along with [club president] Dan [Glass], despite the criticism to the contrary from some people in the media. He stood in there and built something that is here to last.”
  • While Kansas City’s window should remain open for some time after this season, as Glass suggested, tough decisions are never far away. There was a slightly wistful moment in Glass’s comments, which came when discussing the need to seize the moment. “One of these days,” he said, “you’ve got some guys on this team we’re not going to be able to afford. That’s sad but true. Hopefully, we’ll keep them together for some period of time, the core group, but that’s real life with small markets.”
  • Speaking of Cueto, his performance over the final games of the year could go some way toward setting up his hard-to-predict upcoming free agent case. His struggles down the stretch for the Royals are well-documented, but going eight strong innings last night — with eight strikeouts and no walks — was exactly the kind of performance that the team and prospective suitors were looking for. Cueto’s overall body of work is unassailable, of course, but he has a chance to tamp down any concerns with the status of his valuable right elbow.
  • Blue Jays lefty Brett Cecil, who tore his left calf just days ago, is going to try his best to return to playoff action, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. There’s no chance that he’ll be ready for the next round, so the only way he’d possibly make it back is if Toronto makes it into the World Series.
  • If there was a goat in last night’s action, it was Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, who committed two key errors in the unbelievable seventh inning against Toronto. While that obviously represents a sour end to his season, it should not be forgotten that Andrus did a lot to restore his standing in 2015. The 27-year-old batted a sturdy .277/.320/.398 in the season’s second half while reversing some of the defensive decline that metrics saw last year. That’s hardly world-beating stuff, but it’s critical to Texas that Andrus can at least represent an average option at short given that he’s still owed over $100MM going forward.
  • We already addressed Astros outfielder Colby Rasmus in a bullet this morning, but another Houston player who continued to build his stock is slugger Chris Carter. He ended up with a .294/.400/.529 batting line over twenty plate appearances, continuing to build off of the .240/.328/.558 batting line and nine home runs that he put up over his final 120 plate appearances. MLBTR projects Carter to earn $5.6MM in his second of four trips through arbitration. That’s not cheap — remember, dingers pay — but it’s nothing compared to what power will cost on the open market. After seeming like a non-tender candidate several months back, Carter will once again be an interesting possible trade target to keep an eye on this winter.

New York Notes: Teixeira, Harvey, Bullpens

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The Yankees and Mets are both firmly in the playoff picture, with the Yanks currently occupying a Wild Card spot and the Mets holding a six-game lead over the Nationals in the NL East. Here’s the latest on each club…

  • Though the Yankees had to put Mark Teixeira on the DL and will be without him for a week, the team isn’t planning to pursue any outside help at first base, GM Brian Cashman tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Astros slugger Chris Carter and the Marlins’ Casey McGehee have cleared waivers, Sherman reports, and while neither wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason roster if acquired, either could pair with Greg Bird at first base in Teixeira’s absence. However, Cashman doesn’t think the Yankees can find a definitive improvement over their internal options, suggesting that he doesn’t think too highly of either right-handed corner option mentioned by Sherman.
  • Agent Scott Boras feels that the Mets are putting Matt Harvey in danger by not strictly adhering to Dr. James Andrews’ recommended limit of 180 innings. “Any club that chooses to defy a surgeon’s wishes is putting the player in peril,” Boras tells CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. GM Sandy Alderson contends that he’s consulted with doctors all year and considered any innings limit placed on Harvey to be “soft” in nature. Boras disagrees: “Expert opinion by medical practitioners is not a soft number. There are no soft numbers. These are medical practitioners providing opinions about when a pitcher is at risk, and when a pitcher isn’t at risk.” The Mets plan to skip one of Harvey’s starts in advance of the playoffs, but the righty has still totaled 166 1/3 innings this season, so he’s on pace to pitch far more than 180, especially if the Mets make a deep postseason run. In that scenario, Alderson said that Harvey would be monitored on a “case by case” basis.
  • Bullpen workload is a challenge for both Joe Girardi and Terry Collins down the stretch, writes the Post’s Ken Davidoff. Each skipper has a pair of late-inning weapons (Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances for Girardi; Jeurys Familia and Tyler Clippard for Collins), but each has had a heavy workload that will need to be monitored heading into October. As Davidoff notes, the presence of Clippard has been a godsend for the Mets, who had hoped to rely on a quartet of power arms — Vic Black, Bobby Parnell, Jenrry Mejia and Familia — only to see all but Familia work their way out of the team’s late-inning plans in one way or another.

Adding Offense A “Growing Point Of Focus” For Astros

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Much has been made of the Astros’ pursuit of a rotation upgrade — specifically of the top-of-the-rotation variety — but general manager Jeff Luhnow said today that adding another bat to his lineup is a growing point of focus, tweets MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.

Recently, when previewing Houston’s trade deadline approach, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle noted that an upgrade at first base was something the Astros were considering, but pitching, at the time, was said to be a priority. Luhnow’s comments, it should be noted, came even before Chris Carter exited tonight’s game with a sprained right ankle (as McTaggart wrote tonight). Carter was able to walk off the field under his own power, and said after the game (also via McTaggart) that while he’s swollen and sore, he hopes to avoid the disabled list. Houston also has Jon Singleton as an option to step in at first base.

Neither Carter nor Singleton has been particularly productive this season, though. Astros first basemen, in fact, collectively batted just .189/.296/.372 in the season’s first half. Both corner infield spots were problematic, as Houston third baseman slashed .208/.289/.418. Luis Valbuena, though, for all of his batting average woes, is showing the best power of his career. And, the Astros also have Jed Lowrie on the mend, who one would think could take some at-bats at the hot corner now that Carlos Correa has cemented himself as the club’s shortstop.

Both center field (.224/.284/.364) and designated hitter (.240/.279/.436) have collectively resulted in below-average production for their positions as well.

It would seem that the Astros are positioning themselves to be one of the most active clubs on this year’s trade market. Luhnow himself has now stated a growing desire to add a bat, a desire to add a front-of-the-rotation starter and an openness to adding bullpen pieces (specifically, a pitcher with well above-average velocity). Luhnow and the Astros are in a new position as buyers on the summer trade market, so this will be the first opportunity we have to see how aggressive an approach the Houston front office will take when it comes to adding big league talent.

Luhnow, Hinch On Astros’ Roster, Trade Deadline

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Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow finds himself in an unfamiliar position this trade season, as he’s now in the driver’s seat of a club that’s looking to buy, writes Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Drellich spoke to both Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch about the club’s roster and the needs they face entering the July 31 trade deadline.

Per Drellich, starting pitching remains a priority, and the team is likely focused on adding a front-line starting pitcher. Luhnow specifically mentioned a desire to strengthen a potential playoff rotation. “I still think if we are fortunate enough to make the playoffs, having a pitcher that can pitch in those first few games of the playoffs will make a difference,” the GM said. He’s made similar remarks in the past, but the stated importance of strengthening the front of his rotation with the trade deadline so near is nevertheless notable. (Of course, I wouldn’t think that Luhnow and the Astros would shy away from adding a fourth or fifth starter type either.) Manager A.J. Hinch also weighed in on the need for a pitcher: “You always feel like an extra pitcher or two would be ideal, and some of that is out of just strengthening a strength, and some of it is not really knowing what’s in store moving forward on a couple different spots on our team.”

Drellich writes that there’s little indication of serious interest in Cole Hamels, but Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija remain names of interest to the Astros. Houston faces competition in acquiring either free-agent-to-be, with a source telling Drellich that other teams vying for Cueto include the Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants and possibly the Royals. Many have speculated that it could be difficult for Luhnow to strike a deal with former colleague Walt Jocketty — the two “butted heads” while working together in St. Louis, Drellich notes — but multiple sources indicated to Drellich that previous transgressions between the two won’t impact the Astros’ chances so long as they make the best offer.

Regarding possible trade chips on the Padres, Drellich feels that Tyson Ross could be too expensive to pry away due to his remaining club control (through 2017), but Andrew Cashner’s one-and-a-half years of control are a more reasonable target. Ultimately, however, he notes that the Astros are expected to land a pure half-season rental.

One potential area of need that hasn’t received much focus for Houston is first base. Luhnow was candid in pointing out that Chris Carter’s production “hasn’t been there” and “it’s frustrating because we know what he’s capable of doing.” Luhnow, though, adds that Carter’s production in 2014 was particularly potent in the second half. The GM doesn’t specifically state it, but it seems like the club may entertain an upgrade at first base if Carter and Jon Singleton stumble out of the gates in the second half. “He hasn’t achieved it yet, and I’m not sure we can wait all year for something to come if it’s not coming,” said Luhnow of Carter’s production. “I believe he will get off to a quick start after the break and give us the production we need.” Drellich adds that Luis Valbuena has been taking grounders at first and could see some time there when Jed Lowrie is healthy.

Adam Lind and Adam LaRoche are oft-speculated first base trade candidates, though Drellich also wonders about a possible match with Yonder Alonso, who doesn’t hit for much power but also rarely strikes out and has a connection to Hinch, who previously worked in the San Diego front office. Michael Morse and Ryan Howard represent more expensive options that, of course, haven’t lived up to their respective contracts.

Houston certainly has the prospects to deal in order to facilitate a trade for a big name, and Drellich, interestingly, writes that the club may be more willing to move right-hander Mark Appel than top outfield prospect Brett Phillips. (Phillips ranked 21st on Baseball America’s midseason Top 50 prospects list, while Appel was 39th.)

The current iteration of the Astros’ front office is indeed in somewhat uncharted water, and they’re currently being challenged by a surging Angels club that moved into first place on the final day of the first half. As things currently stand, the Astros and Twins — perhaps the two most surprising clubs in baseball — would square off in the Wild Card playoff if the season ended today. Based on comments from Luhnow and reported information from Drellich (whose full article should absolutely be read in its entirety), it doesn’t seem like the Astros will take a passive approach and hope that the eventual returns of Lowrie, George Springer and Scott Feldman will be enough to propel them to a division title.

Teams In Need Of Offense Monitoring Astros

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Teams in search of offense are keeping an eye on the Astros, tweets ESPN’s Jayson Stark. Stark adds that if Jon Singleton wins the first base job in Spring Training — he’s hitting .381/.458/.619 in an obviously small spring sample — and Evan Gattis is healthy, then DH/first baseman Chris Carter could become available.

It’d be a surprise to see Carter moved this close to the season when he’s expected to be a significant piece of their offsense. Still, the Astros do have a player with a similar offensive production in Gattis, who is considerably more affordable. Gattis will earn just over the league minimum in 2015 and isn’t arbitration eligible until next winter. Carter is earning $4.18MM in 2015 as a Super Two player and will only see his price tag rise, as he’ll be arb-eligible three more times before hitting free agency. Both are controlled through the 2018 season.

Were Gattis to shift to DH (presumably also filling in occasionally in the corner outfield, at first base and/or behind the plate), the team could deploy Colby Rasmus in a corner outfield spot and use Jake Marisnick’s excellent glove in center field, giving the club a much improved defense (albeit at the cost of some significant power).

The Astros, it would seem, have a few other bats that could be displaced by the offseason’s activity. Matt Dominguez has 20-homer power at third base but has struggled in terms of average and OBP over the past two seasons; offseason acquisition Luis Valbuena seems poised to take over his regular role at third base. Robbie Grossman has yet to carry his .304/404/.418 batting line  from Triple-A over to the Majors and now looks at a crowded outfield mix involving Rasmus, Gattis, Marisnick, George Springer and Alex Presley (who could be squeezed out of playing time in his own right). Of course, these names are purely speculative, but the Astros do have crowded pictures in the outfield and in the infield, which could lead to some late-spring transactions. It should be noted that the 29-year-old Presley is out of minor league options, as well.

Further Moves Likely For Astros

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The Astros made a splash yesterday by acquiring Evan Gattis from the Braves in exchange for Michael Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz and Andrew Thurman, but the team is “almost certainly not done” making moves, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (All links to Twitter).

Houston has three catchers on the 40-man roster (not including Gattis) and has discussed trades of Carlos Corporan, Jason Castro and Dexter Fowler as well, according to Rosenthal. If either Corporan or Castro were to be moved, Hank Conger could split time with the remaining catcher, with Gattis filling in behind the plate sporadically. As far as a potential trade of Fowler, both George Springer and Jake Marisnick are capable of handling center field, and Fowler, of course, is in his final year of team control before reaching the open market.

Additionally, Rosenthal lists Chris Carter and Matt Dominguez as trade possibilities, noting that Gattis could fill the role of a right-handed DH/first baseman in Carter’s stead. The signing of Jed Lowrie gives Houston an option to play at third, should Domniguez be dealt. Rosenthal also adds that the Astros have some concern to how much they’ve thinned out their pitching depth (Foltynewicz, Nick Tropeano, Jarred Cosart and Jordan Lyles have all been traded in the past two offseasons), indicating that the Astros may prefer to acquire some young pitching should any of those bats be moved.

Yesterday, Rosenthal and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports indicated that Houston may be looking at short-term additions for the back of its rotation, with Rosenthal naming Kyle Kendrick and Ryan Vogelsong as potential targets.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Wednesday

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We’ll keep track of the day’s smaller arbitration deals in this post, with all projections mentioned referring to those of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Here’s the latest…

  • Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press tweets that the Astros have avoided arbitration with Chris Carter, settling on a one-year, $4.175MM pact. Carter, 28, cut back on his strikeout rate to an extent in 2014 (it still checked in at 31.8 percent), but the real improvement came in terms of his power production. The slugger finished with 37 home runs, trailing only Nelson Cruz and tying him with Giancarlo Stanton for second in the Majors in long balls. His elite power served him well, as Swartz’s projection model had him ticketed for $3.5MM.
  • In addition to avoiding arb with Drew Stubbs (link) and Tyler Chatwood (who inked a two-year deal), the Rockies have also avoided arb with right-hander Jordan Lyles, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Lyles will earn a salary of $2.475MM in 2015, per Heyman. A client of Palmetto Sports Group, Lyles enjoyed a nice season with the Rockies that was shortened, to an extent, by a fractured broken left hand (his non-throwing hand). Still, the 24-year-old worked 126 1/3 innings, posting a career-best 4.33 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and an excellent 51.7 percent ground-ball rate. Lyles’ performance prior to the injury — 3.52 ERA, 3.76 xFIP — was markedly better than his post-injury performance, though the discrepancy between his post-injury ERA  (5.31) and xFIP (4.23) indicates that there could be further improvement. He had been projected to receive $2.5MM.
  • The Yankees have announced a deal to avoid arbitration with righty Ivan Nova. He will earn $3.3MM, per a tweet from the New York Post’s Joel Sherman. That sum also matches Nova’s salary from 2014, unsurprisingly, as he missed most of the season due to Tommy John surgery after struggling out of the gate. Nova, who just turned 28, had a highly productive 2013 campaign (3.10 ERA in 139 1/3 frames). Though he posted significant innings totals in prior years, he had never put together a season like that in terms of both results and peripherals (3.47 FIP). All said, it was an easy call for New York to roll the dice on Nova’s rehabilitation.

West Notes: Angel Stadium, Carter, D’backs Front Office

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The Angels have cut off talks with the city of Anaheim regarding a new ballpark lease arrangement, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. Owner Arte Moreno says that the club can afford to build a new ballpark, and indeed the team is exploring its options in other Los Angeles-area locations. After agreeing upon a “deal framework” a year ago, the parties have been unable to finalize a new contract.

Here’s more out of the west:

  • Astros slugger Chris Carter will be shopping for a new agent after losing former adviser Dave Stewart, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports on Twitter. The decision is a particularly important one for Carter, 27, given that he will qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player in the coming offseason. His 37 home runs make for a nice arb case, of course, but his raise will be well-deserved. Carter’s bottom-line production over the last three years: .228/.322/.480 (121 OPS+) over 1,409 plate appearances with 82 long balls.
  • Stewart, of course, made the rounds today after being announced as the Diamondbacks’ new general manager. One burning question has been how Arizona will incorporate statistical analysis into its decisionmaking, and Stewart told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link) that the organization must “get on board with it” after having not done so to present. That does not mean that the club will turn its back entirely on its scouting and culture-heavy focus; to the contrary, Stewart made clear that he hopes former GM Kevin Towers will stay on and discussed the importance of developing an organizational culture in several interviews.
  • One element of the D’backs decisionmaking structure that has become clear is that De Jon Watson will play an important role in developing and disseminating information. In an appearance on the team’s television broadcast, Watson said that he will have wide-ranging responsibilities in the arenas of amateur scouting, player development, and MLB roster construction. He indicated that he likes the idea of being able to have such a broad role. That being said, Watson said the club intends to keep scouting director Ray Montgomery and player development director Mike Bell in their present roles.
  • Turning to the actual ballclub, Stewart said in an appearance on 98.7’s Burns & Gambo show that Arizona has no intention of dealing away young talent. Calling the team’s farm system “pretty much depleted,” Stewart said that rebuilding depth — rotation candidates, especially — was a key focus. That being said, Stewart indicated that he hopes to put a winning club on the field quickly and will look to the free agent market for a “front end guy.”

Astros Looking To Move Chris Carter

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3:11pm: Though Seattle is in need of offense, the Mariners don’t have interest in Carter, a source tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link).

3:08pm: The Astros are looking to trade first baseman/DH Chris Carter, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

The 27-year-old Carter has plenty of power, as evidenced by the 50 homers he’s mashed since Opening Day 2013 (21 this season). However, the righty slugger is hitting just .212 with a .291 OBP despite a .474 slugging percentage that is huge, considering his paltry batting average.

Carter also comes with limited defensive value. He has some experience in left field, but the results haven’t been pretty (-29.6 UZR/150, -7 DRS in 509 innings). He’s also highly strikeout prone, having whiffed in 31.7 percent of his PAs this season and 33.9 percent in his career. Carter will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and is under team control through 2018.

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