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Cristian Javier

Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation

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Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

Astros Notes: McCormick, Javier, Urquidy, Hader

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The Astros placed Chas McCormick on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 28, before tonight’s matchup with the Guardians. The outfielder is dealing with right hamstring discomfort. Infielder Jacob Amaya was recalled in his place, while the Astros also brought up Trey Cabbage (a move first reported by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2) to take the spot vacated when they optioned José Abreu last night.

McCormick had a tough first month of the season. The typically steady left fielder is out to a .236/.325/.278 slash through 83 plate appearances. He still has yet to hit a home run after connecting on a career-high 22 longballs a season ago. McCormick had been an above-average hitter in each of his first three campaigns. Last year’s .273/.353/.489 line was the best work of his career.

His effort to get on track will be put on pause by the hamstring issue, although there’s nothing to suggest he’s facing a long-term absence. Joey Loperfido has gotten the nod in left field for the past two nights. The rookie could be in line for regular playing time on the grass after hitting 13 homers in 25 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido could also pick up first base reps as the Astros rotate through options to replace Abreu. Jon Singleton has gotten the nod at that position in each of the last two games.

McCormick and utility infielder Grae Kessinger are Houston’s only position players on the IL. They haven’t been nearly as fortunate on the pitching side. Most of their rotation has spent time on the injured list at some point. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are still a ways away in their rehabs from arm surgeries, while José Urquidy and Cristian Javier are on the 15-day IL.

Houston released encouraging updates on the latter two right-handers this afternoon. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that the Astros might reinstate Javier to start Sunday’s matchup with the Mariners. Javier has been out since April 18 with neck discomfort, so he could make it back not long after the 15-day minimum if things go well in the next few days.

Urquidy has been battling a longer-term ailment. He reported elbow pain in Spring Training and was eventually diagnosed with a forearm strain. Urquidy has been on the IL for the entire season but could be nearing a rehab stint. Espada indicated that the 29-year-old threw 30 pitches in a live batting practice session today (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). If Urquidy gets through one more session without issue, he could report to a minor league affiliate to build into game shape.

In a rare Astros pitching development not related to injury, Espada tabbed star closer Josh Hader for a two-inning stint in yesterday’s extra-inning win over the Guards. The Astros called on Hader to keep the game tied in the top of the ninth. When both teams failed to score, they sent him back out for the tenth. He allowed the automatic runner to score but got credited for the win when Victor Caratini popped a two-out walk-off homer in the bottom half.

That was not just Hader’s first multi-inning appearance of the season. It was the first time he’d worked more than one inning in a regular season game since 2020; he hadn’t completed two full innings since 2019 when he was a member of the Brewers. As he became more established, Hader had been vocal about not wanting to work more than one inning.

The five-time All-Star indicated that’s no longer the case now that he has secured a five-year, $95MM free agent contract. Hader told the Houston beat that his expectation for 2024 is “to be available for multiple innings” (link via The Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara). The southpaw contrasted that to the past few seasons when he was going through the arbitration system and didn’t have long-term financial security. Those comments may not sit well with the Milwaukee or San Diego fanbases, but it’s a nice boost for the Astros.

Hader has had some uncharacteristic struggles in his first month in Houston. He has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) through his first 12 2/3 innings. Hader has recorded 21 strikeouts behind a huge 16% swinging strike rate, though, so he should find more consistency as the season goes along. The back of the bullpen has been a surprising disappointment thus far. Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly have also scuffled, contributing to Houston’s 10-19 start.

Astros Place Cristian Javier On 15-Day Injured List

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Right-hander Cristian Javier has been scratched from his scheduled start against the Nationals this afternoon and will be placed on the injured list, Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Right-hander Hunter Brown will take the ball against the Nationals today in Javier’s stead, while righty Spencer Arrighetti is being recalled to replace Javier on the club’s active roster.

Javier has been a rare bright spot in what has been a brutal start to the 2024 campaign for the 7-15 Astros. None of that can be pinned on the 27-year-old righty, however, as Javier has dominated to the tune of a 1.54 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in 23 1/3 innings of work across four starts so far this season. Unfortunately, he’ll now take a seat for at least 15 days, though Espada indicated (as relayed by Kawahara) that the goal of Javier’s placement on the injured list was simply to “give him time” to recover, suggesting a fairly short absence could be on the table.

Even if Javier’s trip to the injured list is a fairly short one, it’s still tough news for the Astros. The club just returned veteran ace Justin Verlander from the injured list last week, and now Javier will join Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers Jr. on the shelf for the time being. Of that group, only Valdez appears to be nearing a return. The lefty was placed on the injured list earlier this month due to elbow soreness but avoided a more serious injury, with Kawahara relaying that Espada even left the door open to Valdez returning to the club’s rotation sometime this week to pitch alongside Verlander and J.P. France against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

If Valdez can return in the coming days, it should be a fairly seamless transition into the rotation with off-days on Monday and Friday allowing the club additional flexibility if necessary. The southpaw made just two starts prior to going on the injured list at the beginning of the month but looked good in both of them, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 3.55 FIP and 10 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings of work.

Should Valdez need a bit longer before he’s ready to be activated, the Astros figure to turn to Arrighetti to make a start at some point. The 24-year-old rookie made his MLB debut earlier this season and struggled badly in two starts, allowing nine runs on 11 hits and five walks in just seven innings of work, though he did manage to notch eight strikeouts. If Arrighetti doesn’t end up being needed to make a start in the coming days, the Astros could instead look to use him to bolster a bullpen that has posted a worrisome 5.29 ERA to this point in the 2024 season, better than only the Rays among AL clubs.

West Notes: Astros, Rodgers, Padres

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The Astros have seen a great deal of upheaval in their rotation throughout the season, as established hurlers like Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Lance McCullers Jr. have spent much of the season on the injured list while up and comers like Hunter Brown and J.P. France have taken up roles in the rotation. In the midst of all that turmoil, left-hander Framber Valdez and right-hander Cristian Javier have stood as fixtures at the top of Houston’s rotation.

That figures to change in the coming days, however, as the club has scratched Valdez from his planned start against the Rangers tomorrow. Manager Dusty Baker indicated to reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that Valdez had been battling with a sprained ankle since June 20 against the Mets, and the injury worsened during his last start against the Cardinals. Right-hander Shawn Dubin figures to take the ball in Valdez’s stead tomorrow, though his 10.80 ERA in five innings this season doesn’t exactly measure up to Valdez’s Cy Young-caliber performance this season.

Per Kawahara, Baker noted that Javier is still expected to make his start on Monday “as of right now” despite the fact that the right-hander is “scuffling a bit,” as indicated by his uncharacteristically lackluster 5.79 ERA in June. Chandler Rome and Eno Sarris of The Athletic suggest the Astros could push Javier’s next start back by calling up right-hander Brandon Bielak, who was scratched from his start at the Triple-A level today.

More from around MLB’s West divisions:

  • The Rockies may welcome back second baseman Brendan Rodgers from surgery before the 2023 campaign comes to an end. Rodgers suffered a torn labrum during spring training that ultimately required surgery, but the 26-year-old infielder has begun to work his way back to the field, per Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Rodgers took live batting practice for the first time today, ran the bases and took infield practice. Rodgers will report to Arizona for extended spring training after the All Star break, and manager Bud Black indicated to reporters (including Saunders) that Rodgers could return to the Rockies in August or September. That’s fantastic news for the Rockies, who have relied primarily on Harold Castro and Coco Montes at the keystone in Rodgers’ absence.
  • The Padres will be without right-hander Yu Darvish tomorrow, as the veteran hurler was scratched from his start due to a bout of the flu. Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds that, per manager Bob Melvin, he may not be able to pitch Monday either. Who will start in Darvish’s stead tomorrow is currently unclear, though the club did recall right-hander Pedro Avila earlier today. Avila has made 13 starts at the Triple-A level this season, posting an 8.49 ERA in 46 2/3 innings of work.

Astros Sign Cristian Javier To Five-Year Extension

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The Astros have locked up a key member of their rotation, announcing agreement with Cristian Javier on a five-year deal. The contract, which does not contain any option provisions, locks in his final three seasons of arbitration control and buys out two would-be free agent years. It’s reportedly a $64MM guarantee for the MVP Sports Group client.

Javier will receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $3MM salary for the upcoming season. That’ll be followed by successive salaries of $7MM in 2024, $10MM in 2025, and $21MM annually between 2026-27. Javier’s salaries in the final two seasons can escalate depending on his Cy Young finishes in prior years. He’d add $2MM to his salary in the final two seasons with any previous Cy Young win, $1MM with a runner-up, or $500K for a third through fifth place finish.

“Cristian is an outstanding pitcher, so we are really excited about signing him to a long-term deal,” first-year general manager Dana Brown said in the team’s press release. “We felt that he is the perfect candidate for this type of deal as a core piece of our rotation. This is in line with our vision to try to to lock players up to sustain our success both now and in the future.”

Javier, 26 next month, signed with the Astros as an 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic during the 2015-16 signing period. Two years older than the typical international amateur acquisition, Javier received a $10K bonus as an unheralded prospect. That he even made the majors given that modest starting point is a testament to his progression and the Astros’ strong pitcher development staff. Javier has performed at an above-average level from essentially day one in MLB, breaking in with 54 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball during the shortened 2020 schedule.

It was a promising rookie showing in which Javier started 10 of his first 12 outings. He started the first nine appearances of the following season but was kicked to the bullpen in late May thanks to the Astros’ starting pitching surplus. Javier thrived in relief, striking out 31.3% of opponents with a 3.93 ERA as a multi-inning weapon. That affirmed his ability to perform at a high-end level over a full season and put him in the mix for a potential return to the rotation.

That transition back to starting came last April. After three relief outings to open the year, Javier was moved back into the rotation as part of a six-man starting staff. He improved upon his strong first couple seasons, totaling 148 2/3 innings of 2.54 ERA ball. He fanned 33.2% of opposing hitters while generating swinging strikes on an excellent 13.8% of his overall offerings. Among 72 pitchers with 140+ innings, only Carlos Rodón and Shohei Ohtani racked up strikeouts more efficiently. Javier’s per-pitch whiff rate checked in 11th among that group.

Javier now carries a 3.05 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout percentage through 304 1/3 career innings of regular season action. That production was certainly eye-opening on its own, though he perhaps firmly put himself on the national radar last fall. Entrusted with a start in Game Four of the World Series with his club down 2-1, Javier outpitched Aaron Nola with six innings of no-hit ball and nine strikeouts. A trio of relievers closed out the second no-hitter in World Series history and evened a series which Houston would go on to take in six games.

Obviously, Houston’s long-term belief in Javier goes well beyond that one performance. He’s among the game’s best young pitchers at missing bats. That’s been particularly true against right-handed batters, who have struck out in 36.6% of plate appearances while hitting .143/.231/.304 against him over his MLB career. Lefties have had a little more success, working walks at an 11.1% clip with a .212/.307/.369 line, but haven’t fared particularly well themselves.

The free passes against southpaws hint at fine but unexceptional control. Javier has walked 10.1% of opponents in his career and handed out free passes at a slightly higher than average 8.9% clip last season. He’s not a pinpoint control artist but has thrown more than enough strikes considering his ability to miss bats. He’s also one of the sport’s more extreme fly-ball pitchers. That led to some home runs issues early in his career but wasn’t a problem in 2022, when he allowed just over one longball per nine innings. That was on the strength of a minuscule 9.1% HR/FB rate he’s not likely to sustain, and homer issues could be at least a modest concern moving forward.

Even if Javier doesn’t replicate a 2.54 ERA annually, his first couple seasons demonstrate he’s capable of keeping runs off the board with a few round-trippers mixed in. The Astros now have Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. signed for the extended future (McCullers through 2026, Javier through ’27). Framber Valdez is arbitration-eligible through 2025, as is José Urquidy. Luis Garcia has yet to reach arbitration and won’t hit free agency until following the 2026 campaign. Top prospect Hunter Brown, meanwhile, just reached the majors late last year and is controllable until at least the 2028-29 offseason.

That controllable rotation should position the Astros to stretch their run of success well into the decade. It’s possible more deals are coming, as the new GM has already gone on record about a desire to lock up multiple key players on long-term extensions. That has been an organizational emphasis for the Braves, in whose front office Brown worked before landing the Houston GM job two weeks ago. It hasn’t taken long for him to bring that philosophy to Houston, and while Brown candidly implied yesterday that a Javier deal was likely to be the first one coming, it’s hard to imagine it’ll be the last one that gets done.

Former GM James Click had already extended Yordan Alvarez through 2028 last summer. Star outfielder Kyle Tucker (arb-eligible through 2025) and infielders Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve (both under contract for two more seasons) are among the other players whom Brown has expressed a desire to keep around.

The Javier deal won’t have a huge impact on the club’s 2023 payroll. He and the team had been slated to go to an arbitration hearing that would’ve seen him earn either $3MM or $3.5MM for this season. Factoring in the signing bonus adds $1.5MM – $2MM to the club’s ledger this year. Houston’s payroll now sits around $193MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s above last year’s estimated $174MM season0opening mark but not a dramatic spike for a franchise coming off a World Series win.

The extension has a more notable impact on the club’s luxury tax calculation. A deal’s average annual value counts against a team’s CBT ledger. Javier’s now at $12.8MM from a CBT perspective, bringing Houston’s projected tax number around $218MM. That leaves them about $15MM shy of the $233MM base threshold.

The following $7MM and $10MM salaries reflect reasonable enough assumptions about how Javier’s payments might have escalated over his final two arbitration seasons. Houston’s $21MM annual payments for his two would-be free agent years, however, mark a step up in this service bracket. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara signed a five-year extension that guaranteed $56MM last winter, the largest deal ever for a pitcher with between three and fours year of service. That was before Alcantara exploded for a Cy Young-winning 2022 season but he was coming off a 3.19 ERA showing over 205 2/3 innings and had twice topped 30 starts in a season.

That Javier broke the record for his service group is impressive enough, though his camp’s stronger victory on the deal was in the absence of any club options at contract’s end. Alcantara’s extension came with a $21MM team option for a sixth season. Carlos Martínez, who had the second-largest guarantee among starters in the service class at $51MM, surrendered two team options. Nola agreed to one option in his $45MM deal over the 2018-19 offseason.

Javier didn’t need to do so. He secures his first life-changing guarantee and set the record for pitchers in the service bracket while still remaining in strong position for a strong free agent deal down the line. Javier is scheduled to hit free agency after his age-30 campaign, when a six-plus year contract would be on the table if he continues to perform as a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter.

The Astros don’t secure the extent of the long-term upside that’s typically present on extensions of this nature. They do tack on two more years of Javier’s services and the $21MM annual salary would be below his free agent market value if he stays healthy and performs at the level he has to this point in his career. Houston has arguably the sport’s best roster already and has taken another step towards extending that window with core players. Given the aggressiveness with which their new GM hammered out his first significant deal, it wouldn’t be a surprise if there were more on the horizon.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle first reported Javier was guaranteed $64MM, including a $2MM signing bonus, and that the deal didn’t contain any option years. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the yearly salary breakdown. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the presence of awards bonuses and escalators, with the Associated Press providing specifics on the bonus structure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Brown: Astros Pursuing Extensions With Multiple Core Players

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It’s been two weeks since the Astros tabbed now-former Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager, but Brown has wasted little time in embarking on extension talks with Houston’s core players. The GM acknowledged earlier this week that he’s had talks with Kyle Tucker’s camp in the run-up to Tucker’s arbitration hearing, but there are far more players under consideration, it seems.

Brown told reporters today that he’s held discussions not only with Tucker and his reps but also with the agents for right-hander Cristian Javier. Furthermore, the newly minted GM publicly expressed interest in extending third baseman Alex Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve (Twitter links, with video, via Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26). Both Bregman and Altuve are currently signed through 2024. Bregman told the media today that Brown and agent Scott Boras have already had conversations.

The Astros haven’t necessarily been shy about extensions under prior front office regimes, but it’s a change of pace to hear the team’s top baseball operations executive so candidly discuss such matters. Houston has, in recent years, brokered long-term deals with Bregman (five years, $100MM), Altuve (five years, $151MM), Yordan Alvarez (six years, $115MM) and Lance McCullers Jr. (five years, $85MM) before each reached free agency.

That said, the team hasn’t been quite so aggressive with players early in their pre-arbitration years — a recent hallmark of the Braves organization which Brown just departed. Outside of Altuve’s original four-year, $12.5MM extension, the Astros have generally waited until their players have accrued three or more years of service time, hence the heftier nature of the annual salaries on those previously mentioned long-term pacts. That, it seems, is something Brown endeavors to change (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

“I think [owner Jim Crane] and I are going to meet somewhere in the middle,” said Brown. “I’m more on the aggressive side of signing them, he may be more on the conservative side, but he’s very open to getting these players signed.” Brown also added that he’s told Crane to “fasten his seatbelt — it’s time.”

It’s likely music to the ears of Astros fans, who saw substantial roster turnover from the 2017 World Series team to the 2022 World Championship club. Bregman, Altuve, McCullers, Yuli Gurriel and Justin Verlander — who’s since departed via free agency — were the only players on both rosters. While that quintet eventually signed new contracts (Verlander opted out of his most recent deal to again test free agency; Gurriel took a one-year extension with a club option covering 2021-22), none of the team’s newly emerged core has put pen to paper on a long-term arrangement just yet.

Brown spoke with particular optimism regarding the progress made on a potential long-term deal with Javier, the 25-year-old right-hander who has emerged as one of the team’s best starting pitchers. Javier logged a career-high 148 2/3 innings this past season, notching an outstanding 2.54 ERA and fanning a massive 33.2% of his opponents against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. He’s controlled for another three seasons and, like Tucker, is working to avoid a looming arbitration hearing. Javier filed for a $3.5MM salary to the Astros’ counter of $3MM, but it seems there’s a decent chance the two parties work out a lengthier arrangement. “We feel really good about that one,” Brown stated.

Contract extensions for arbitration-eligible players like Javier tend to be based heavily on precedent, which at least provides some potential clues to where the numbers could eventually fall. Recent examples of long-term deals for pitchers with between three and four years of service time (Javier has three exactly), include Aaron Nola’s four-year, $45MM deal from 2019 (which contained a club option for a fifth season) and, more recently, Sandy Alcantara’s five-year, $56MM extension (with an option for a sixth season).

On a rate basis, Javier stacks up favorably to both Alcantara and Nola at the time of their respective extensions; he’s arguably been even better, with a lower ERA (3.05 to Nola’s 3.35 and Alcantara’s 3.49) and a considerably better strikeout rate (30.9% for Javier, 25.7% for Nola, 21.2% for Alcantara). However, both Nola and Alcantara had amassed vastly higher innings totals heading into their first arbitration seasons. Javier has just 304 1/3 career innings (partly due to ample time in the bullpen before a more permanent move to the rotation in 2022), whereas Alcantara had 487 1/3 innings and Nola had piled up a massive 569 frames.

That workload discrepancy is the primary reason that Javier’s projected $3.3MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) falls well shy of the $4.5MM at which Alcantara was projected prior to his extension and the $6.6MM at which Nola was projected. That’s not to say Javier can’t find a way to top the guarantees on either deal, but his camp would need to secure a larger AAV on the free-agent years or perhaps agree to a sixth guaranteed year in order to do so, as his arbitration seasons are inherently going to be valued at lesser rates than those recent comps.

Turning back to a broader look at today’s press conference, Brown didn’t tip his hand on every player with whom he plans to pursue a contract extension, though it’s easy enough to look up and down the roster and identify a few speculative candidates. Shortstop Jeremy Pena has just one year of MLB service under his belt. He’s two years from reaching arbitration and another five years from free agency. Lefty Framber Valdez and righty Luis Garcia, meanwhile, are three and four seasons away from reaching the open market, respectively. Looking to how the Braves operated, it also wouldn’t be a shock to see top prospects like Hunter Brown (0.89 ERA in a 20 1/3 inning MLB debut last year) approached about long-term arrangements fairly early on in their MLB tenures.

Not every overture to sign a player will be successful, of course, but Brown made clear that one of his philosophical beliefs about the job is to correctly identify core players early on and aggressively present scenarios intended to keep them with the club beyond their base six years of control.

“I want you guys to know if a guy walks out of here, it’s not going to be because we didn’t go after him aggressively,” said Brown. “We’re trying to sign players.”

Requested Salary Figures For 33 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries.  MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.

Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling.  However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline.  In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.

Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer.  As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole.  This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings.  Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades.  Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.

The total list (which will be updated as settlements are reached and hearing results become known)….

The Opener: World Series, Mets, Brewers

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. The World Series Sees Its Second No-Hitter

After watching Lance McCullers Jr. give up five home runs while Ranger Suarez shut the lineup out in Game 3, Astros fans were no doubt feeling a bit queasy headed into a Game 4 against Aaron Nola, one of the best pitchers in the NL. Just as they did in Game 1, however, the Astros lineup managed to get to Nolan, striking for five runs in the fifth inning. However, the Astros’ offense wasn’t the story of this game — Cristian Javier struck out nine over six shutout innings to combine with Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly for a no-hitter. It was the second no-hitter in World Series history (preceded by Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series), and just the third-ever postseason no-hitter (also at Citizens Bank Ballpark, Roy Halladay tossed a no-no in the 2010 NLDS). While there’s still plenty of baseball to be played this November, it’s worth noting that both Larsen’s Yankees and Halladay’s Phillies went on to win their respective series. For tonight’s pivotal Game 5, the Phillies will start Noah Syndergaard against Houston’s Justin Verlander.

2. The Mets Brace For Losses, Eye Additions In Free Agency

After a 101-win season that ended abruptly at the hands of the Padres in the Wild Card series, the Mets now face some significant free agent losses, and center fielder Brandon Nimmo and closer Edwin Diaz are reportedly the free agents New York wishes to retain the most. Mets owner Steve Cohen is certainly unafraid of making a splash in free agency, and the team will have to devote some more resources to rebuilding it rotation, as three starters (Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker) are likely to hit free agency this offseason, and a fourth could join them if the Mets decline Carlos Carrasco’s club option. Few players with deGrom’s level of potential impact exist in the game, much less on the free agent market, but Verlander and Carlos Rodon are both arms who could take deGrom’s place alongside Scherzer at the top of the rotation in Queens. The likes of Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Anderson represent possible mid-rotation replacements for Bassitt, while Walker’s quality back of the rotation production could be replaced by a variety of pitchers, including Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, or Sean Manaea.

3. Brewers Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration

In yesterday’s opener, we discussed the massive arbitration class the Rays have heading into 2023, with their 19 players being the most of any club. Milwaukee isn’t far behind with an 18-player class that is projected to receive $79.9MM, and thus the Brewers are set to approach their 2023 payroll even before making additions this offseason. While there are some non-tender candidates in the group, most of the significant money in Milwaukee’s arbitration class is tied up in productive players too valuable to just cut, so a trade of one of these more expensive names (i.e.Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames) could make some sense. Of course, then the Brewers face the new problem of finding adequate replacements for their production for a lower price. Whatever path he may choose, GM Matt Arnold’s first offseason at the helm of the Brewers’s front office will be one to follow.

Astros Notes: Pressly, Verlander, Javier

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The Astros placed closer Ryan Pressly on the 15-day injured list this afternoon, retroactive to August 22, with neck spasms. Righty Seth Martinez was recalled to take the vacated active roster spot. Pressly has been unavailable for the past couple games dealing with stiffness in his neck, and the issue is apparently severe enough it’ll take him out of commission for at least a couple weeks. The club hasn’t provided a more specific timetable on his return.

Pressly has excelled again this season, continuing along as one of the sport’s top late-game relievers. Through 37 2/3 innings on the year, the right-hander owns a 3.11 ERA with an excellent 32.2% strikeout percentage and just a 6.3% walk rate. His 44.2% ground-ball rate is the lowest mark in his four full seasons in Houston, but the two-time All-Star has more than offset that with elite swing-and-miss stuff. He’s gotten a whiff on 17.1% of his pitches, the 13th-highest rate among 214 relievers with 30+ innings pitched.

More out of Houston:

  • Justin Verlander chatted with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic earlier this week, discussing his progression back from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out virtually all of his 2020-21 seasons. The future Hall of Famer has put himself firmly in the conversation for a third career Cy Young award, posting an MLB-best 1.87 ERA over 23 starts. Verlander hasn’t looked at all fazed by his lack of innings over the prior two seasons, as he’s soaked up 149 frames (the 12th most in MLB). He’s already surpassed the 130-inning threshold to vest a player option in his deal that could keep him in Houston for $25MM next season. With how well he’s performed, however, he seems all but certain to forego that provision and retest the open market in search of an annual salary near or above the $43.333MM former teammate Max Scherzer landed from the Mets last offseason. Verlander noted he won’t be able to make a formal decision on the option until after he sees how he finishes the season, but he unsurprisingly tells Rosenthal that “if things continue to go the way they are and knock on wood, everything goes the way I think everybody would hope, then I would probably opt out. I’ve pitched pretty damn well.“
  • There’s a bit of a shake-up alongside Verlander in the starting staff, as skipper Dusty Baker told reporters the club will move from the six-man rotation they’d been deploying to a five-man staff for now (via Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle). Righty Cristian Javier will be the odd man out, at least temporarily. Baker indicated the team would skip the 25-year-old’s scheduled start this weekend, with Javier available out of the bullpen instead. It’s not out of the question they eventually go back to the six-man staff, but with off days scheduled for next Monday and Thursday, there’s room for the club to consolidate the rotation for the time being. Javier’s return to the bullpen certainly isn’t an indictment of his performance. Through 112 1/3 frames, he owns a sterling 2.88 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate. Still, with a top five of Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy, the Astros have enviable depth (although Garcia has struggled of late). Javier’s willingness to work as a multi-inning relief weapon as needed could forecast his potential role in the postseason, as he has far more recent bullpen experience than any of the other top rotation options on staff.
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