Dallas Keuchel

Luhnow: Astros Likely Done Making Significant Additions

By charliewilmoth | January 22, 2017 at 7:30pm CDT

Speaking with reporters yesterday, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said the team was likely done making big-league additions this winter, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports. Luhnow is effectively saying the team is unlikely to add a big-name pitcher such as Jose Quintana, Chris Archer or Sonny Gray, all of whom they’ve been connected to lately. He is not, however, ruling out the possibility that the Astros could still make a move.

The Astros’ roster at the moment is “probably the roster that we’re going to have to start the season,” Luhnow said. “We’re always open to considering ways to improve it, but right now I’d set the expectations low that there’s going to be any major changes.”

Health permitting, the Astros will have Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers and Collin McHugh in their rotation. After receiving a $14MM contract this winter, Charlie Morton is a reasonable bet to win a job as well, although that’s not a certainty. Mike Fiers, Joe Musgrove and Chris Devenski are also in the picture, and top prospect Francis Martes could eventually emerge as a possibility.

“We feel like we’ve got enough depth in the rotation that we’ll have five guys in our rotation that are going to be able to compete every night, and our offense is going to keep us in games,” Luhnow said. He added that it’s possible the Astros could use the early months of the season to evaluate their starting pitching and then either try to trade for a pitcher or “save ourselves a few prospects” if it turns out they don’t need one.

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Dallas Keuchel

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2017 at 11:52am CDT

The Astros have avoided arbitration with left-hander Dallas Keuchel by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $9.15MM, reports MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). The 2015 Cy Young winner is represented by Frontline Athlete Management.

Keuchel earns a raise over the $7.25MM salary he earned last year — a record for a first-time-eligible pitcher in arbitration — and will be arbitration-eligible once more next winter before hitting the open market following the 2018 season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $9.5MM salary for Keuchel.

The 29-year-old Keuchel wasn’t able to replicate his dominant 2015 effort, but he still took the ball for the Astros 26 times and tallied 168 innings of 4.55 ERA ball to go along with 7.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a robust 56.7 percent ground-ball rate in 2016. Health may have been a factor for the downturn in Keuchel’s performance, as he shoulder troubles limited him to just seven starts after the All-Star break. Keuchel didn’t make an appearance after Aug. 27 this past season, though there’s been no word that the effects of that injury will linger into 2017, and Keuchel never required surgery to correct the issue.

Jeff Luhnow On Trade Deadline, 2017 Needs & Payroll, Rasmus

By Jeff Todd | October 3, 2016 at 9:18pm CDT

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow says that he recognizes in retrospect that the team would’ve been better served to be more active at the trade deadline, as Angel Verdejo of the Houston Chronicle reports. But that wasn’t entirely apparent at the time, he stressed.

In particular, the losses of starters Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. left a difficult void for Houston down the stretch. But Luhnow says that he “didn’t have that perspective at that point,” referring to the August 1st trade deadline and its run-up. He also noted that, “over the long term, [foregoing additions] does sometimes turn out to be the right decision;” obviously, striking significant deals typically requires the sacrifice of young talent.

The “jury’s out” on whether the ’Stros should have been more aggressive this summer, says Luhnow, who does note that there are lessons to be learned from the 2016 experience. “I can’t control what happened after the deadline,” he said. “But we’re certainly going to continue to look at every opportunity going forward to give ourselves maybe a little more breathing room so if we do lose a player or we have some underperformance, that we’ve got more of a margin to still have a successful campaign.”

The Houston GM also addressed a variety of other important topics for the organization as it moves forward after missing the postseason.

Entering the offseason, among the organization’s areas to improve are outfield, first base, and catcher, Luhnow said and Jordan Ray of MLB.com tweets. That’s a fairly extensive list, though certainly there are a variety of internal options already on hand as well as plenty of open-market (if not also trade) possibilities. While the Astros’ pen performed well overall, “one glaring area is from the left side,” says Luhnow, via Mark Berman of FOX 26 (on Twitter), so that would appear to be another spot that could receive attention.

Given the above comments about the starting staff, it too could receive some consideration. Among several wild cards in the team’s plans, perhaps, is 25-year-old righty Chris Devenski. He excelled over 108 1/3 innings, with a 2.16 ERA and 8.6 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9, though he only made five starts in his debut campaign. The “dream” is for Devenski to stick in the rotation, Luhnow said and Berman tweets.

Facilitating new additions always requires a look at the balance sheet, of course. Houston opened 2016 with just under $100MM on its books, the highest level since 2009. With about $34MM committed for next season, and some significant arb salaries to account for, there’s still room to play with. But the ownership group is also willing to bump up the club’s payroll, per Luhnow, as Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle reports (Twitter links). “We’re going to have the resources to go out and sign some players,” said Luhnow.

The stated need for improvement in the outfield is a reflection, in part, on the already-known fact that Colby Rasmus is headed to the open market. He’ll do so after a disappointing campaign in which he compiled a .206/.286/.355 batting line over 417 plate appearances. Health certainly played a factor, but the 30-year-old simply “did not have the year that he was hoping to have,” says Luhnow, who adds that Rasmus “still has value to major league teams” and will no doubt find an opportunity somewhere. (Via another tweet from Berman.) But the next shot may well come with another team; the GM says that he is “not sure how, or if, [Rasmus] fits into our plans at this point.”

Finally, Luhnow suggested that the team was pleased with the performance of skipper A.J. Hinch and his field staff. Hinch and his coaches will all return for 2017, as Verdejo tweets.

Astros Injury Updates: Keuchel, Bregman, McCullers

By Jeff Todd | September 19, 2016 at 8:20pm CDT

It seems rather unlikely that the Astros will receive further contributions in 2016 from lefty Dallas Keuchel or infielder Alex Bregman, according to updates from GM Jeff Luhnow, via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter links). There’s at least some positive momentum, though, for righty Lance McCullers Jr., who Luhnow says will throw off of a mound in the coming days, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets.

Keuchel, who is dealing with shoulder inflammation, wouldn’t be available unless the team is able to qualify for and “go pretty deep” in the postseason, per Luhnow. He has yet to begin throwing at this time, Kaplan tweets, so there’s obviously a long way to go. The 28-year-old last appeared on August 27th, so he’d certainly need to fully build back his arm strength even if the inflammation dies down.

The timeline isn’t much more optimistic for Bregman, whose hamstring injury is significant enough that it would typically require a four to six week layoff. While Luhnow suggests that it’s possible to push a recovery in this situation, even an aggressive timetable would seemingly leave the talented youngster unavailable until early October.

McCullers, meanwhile, has been out for much longer than the other two players with elbow issues. News on his progress has been limited since his last appearance on August 2nd. Presumably, the ’Stros will continue to exercise caution with the prized 22-year-old. But it’s at least promising to hear that he is now in a position to begin working back toward mound work.

What’s clear is that Houston won’t receive any contributions from this key trio of players down the stretch. With a three-game gap between the club and a Wild Card spot entering today’s action, it’ll take a huge showing over the next two weeks just to gain a chance at the playoffs. If the Astros can somehow sneak in — and escape the one-game Wild Card play-in game — it’ll be interesting to see if any of the three are ready for activation for a full postseason series.

Dallas Keuchel Cleared Of Structural Issues In Shoulder, But Timeline Uncertain

By Jeff Todd | September 9, 2016 at 6:13pm CDT

Astros lefty Dallas Keuchel is shut down at the moment with shoulder issues, but he said today that he has been cleared of structural concerns, as Mark Berman of FOX 26 reports (Twitter links). Tests showed inflammation, but he says the club’s training staff is confident that “a little bit of time” is all that’s needed to heal the joint.

If the issued had arisen earlier in the season, the ’Stros would surely have less immediate concern, as Keuchel could take his time getting back to full strength and embark upon a rehab stint. Plus, it would be easier to fill innings with an outside addition.

As it stands, though, there’s less than a month to go in the regular season and Keuchel’s absence will tell for a club that’s fighting to stay in the Wild Card hunt. Whether he can make it back by season’s end, or for a hopeful postseason run, is “hard to say at this point,” GM Jeff Luhnow tells MLB.com’s Alyson Footer (via Twitter). It doesn’t help that the southpaw won’t have an opportunity to pitch in the minor league system on a rehab assignment.

At this stage of the season, the organization is likely limited to the arms it already has on hand (see the Houston depth chart here) to fill the void in the rotation. Youngster David Paulino received his first major league start recently, but lasted only three innings and coughed up four earned runs with two walks, two wild pitches, and no strikeouts. The Astros received somewhat more promising results from just-activated righty Brad Peacock in his outing, as he allowed one earned in 3 2/3 frames, but he did permit five base knocks and managed only a pair of Ks.

Dallas Keuchel Sidelined With Shoulder Inflammation

By Jeff Todd | September 5, 2016 at 9:32pm CDT

Astros lefty Dallas Keuchel will miss at least two starts due to shoulder inflammation, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch both said today. Mark Berman of FOX 26 reported Luhnow’s comments (Twitter links), while MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart spoke with Hinch.

At present, it seems, the team doesn’t yet know the cause or full extent of the problem. As such, it’s not yet clear whether Keuchel will be able to return to help drive a push for the postseason, or appear if the team qualifies. Houston is all but buried in the AL West, but entered play today two games off of the Wild Card pace.

The 28-year-old Keuchel hasn’t been at his best thus far in 2016, as he carries a 4.55 ERA over 168 frames — well off of the sub-3.00 rate he maintained over the last two campaigns. Still, he has rated as a solid performer in the eyes of ERA estimators while maintaining quite useful peripherals (7.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 56.7% groundball rate). With his average fastball lagging by over a mile per hour as against recent campaigns, though, Keuchel has been hurt by the long ball (16.4% HR/FB rate) — the same issue that plagued him before his 2014 breakout.

Despite the struggles, Keuchel remains a largely irreplaceable piece for the ’Stros, with the absence of Lance McCullers Jr. further amplifying the problem. At this stage of the season, especially, the club needs every quality inning it can get.

Both Luhnow and Hinch acknowledged that the timing of the injury raises the possibility that Keuchel won’t return in 2016. “I don’t know the answer to that,” the GM said when asked if the southpaw would make it back. “I don’t think anybody really knows the answer to that.” As the skipper put it, “where we’re at on the calendar, it’s going to bring the obvious questions, but we just don’t know right now.”

Efforts to address the inflammation have not yet proven successful, Hinch explained. Keuchel first had pain in his last start, on August 27, and experienced discomfort when he tried to throw on Sunday. And attempts “to give him some gaps in time in giving him some rest periods … hasn’t solved it,” said Hinch. Ultimately, the manager noted, Keuchel will not be allowed to resume throwing “until he’s pain-free.”

The biggest question, perhaps, is whether a deeper structural problem is at play. That’s completely unknown at this point, though more information may become available once Keuchel undergoes a full examination by medical professionals.

Even if he can dodge a broader issue, the injury is likely to cost Keuchel some arbitration earnings. He won’t reach 200 innings for the third-straight season, only has nine wins on his record, and will be weighed down by the sub-par earned run average. Of course, he is working from a monster first-year arb award of $7.25MM, which obliterated prior high-points for first-year arb-eligible starters, so Keuchel will remain a major arbitration earner in his second season of eligibility.

AL Notes: Rangers, Sandoval, Indians, Keuchel

By Steve Adams | April 18, 2016 at 11:08am CDT

Rangers GM Jon Daniels said in an appearance on 105.3 FM The Fan that his club has not made an effort to trade for an impact catcher since Robinson Chirinos’ injury (transcript via the Dallas Morning News). To this point, Daniels says that other clubs haven’t called and marketed potentially available catchers: “No, nobody has really … the guys we’ve heard from the most are the agents who have either free agent catching guys that got released out of camp, or maybe they have a catcher at Triple-A with somebody where maybe they’ve got an out or want us to trade for them.” Daniels said that the Rangers have looked into adding some more organizational depth — defense-first, quality makeup catchers — but is more focused on getting Chirinos healthy than acquiring a potential replacement.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com wonders if some time away from the Red Sox will create the opportunity for Pablo Sandoval to follow the route of former Sox pitcher John Lackey, who was a largely unpopular figure in Boston after the first few seasons of his five-year deal but won his way back into the hearts of Red Sox fans with a very strong 2013 in his return from Tommy John surgery. Bradford notes that it won’t be easy for Sandoval, though right-hander Clay Buchholz tells Bradford that Sandoval’s teammates are all behind him. “We all know what Panda can do,” said Buchholz. “He’s an elite player. He’s battled through some pretty tough criticism and now with this … I hope it’s not anything like it sounds.” Sandoval is currently on the shelf for an undetermined amount of time after visiting Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion on his ailing shoulder.
The Indians will activate right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall from the disabled list on Wednesday this week, writes Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com, which means a roster move is forthcoming. Of the team’s four outfielders — Rajai Davis, Collin Cowgill, Marlon Byrd and Tyler Naquin — only Naquin has options and can be sent down without being exposed to waivers. Looking at the pitching staff, Hoynes lists a number of arms that are safe but doesn’t apply that designation to Joba Chamberlain, Ross Detwiler or Dan Otero. Chamberlain and Otero have been strong thus far in the young season, whereas Detwiler has surrendered runs in two of his four appearances on the year.
While he’s only made three starts this season, Astros ace and reigning Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel has displayed some notable red flags, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs points out (notably, Cameron’s piece was written prior to Keuchel’s most recent start, though the velocity issues he mentions persisted in that outing). Chief among them is diminished velocity in Keuchel’s sinker, cutter and slider. Velocity peaks in the middle of a season for a pitcher, of course, but Cameron notes that even when comparing Keuchel’s velocity to his velocity last April, there’s a significant dip. Beyond that, Keuchel isn’t commanding the bottom of the strike zone as well as he did last season (or, alternatively, umpires are not being as generous on the bottom of the zone after learning from Statcast data that Keuchel received more favorable bottom-of-the-zone calls than nearly any other pitcher in the league). Cameron stresses that the sample being studied is small, but each is a concerning trend for an Astros club that very much needs Keuchel to approximate his 2015 value to make a run at the top of the division.

Astros Notes: Cespedes, Keuchel, Castro, Breach Scandal

By Mark Polishuk | January 17, 2016 at 6:18pm CDT

Here’s the latest from Minute Maid Park…

Three different executives tell Peter Gammons (Twitter link) that the Astros are a team to watch on Yoenis Cespedes. It seems as if Cespedes’ market is picking up a lot of steam, though there’s still little in the way of solid information about which teams are most ardently pursuing the free agent outfielder. At first glance, Houston doesn’t seem to have a spot for Cespedes with Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez in left and center, plus George Springer in right field and Evan Gattis at DH. Then again, the Astros were also recently connected to Ender Inciarte in trade talks with the Braves, indicating that they might not be entirely satisfied with their current outfield mix. Signing Cespedes would either shift Rasmus to a DH time-share with Gattis, or perhaps one of Houston’s current outfielders would be traded. Of the trio, Rasmus can’t be dealt without his permission until June 15 since he accepted the Astros’ one-year qualifying offer.
After avoiding arbitration with Dallas Keuchel on his 2016 contract, GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that he still hopes to lock Keuchel up on a multi-year deal. “If we can get additional control beyond [2018,] we’re certainly going to attempt to do that,” Luhnow said. “The allure of free agency as players get closer gets more and more attractive. It gets more difficult the more success a player has and the closer he gets to free agency [to sign him]. We’re going to keep trying.” Keuchel’s agent, Darek Braunecker, said in early January that the two sides hadn’t yet had any extension talks this winter.
The Astros don’t adhere to a strict “file-and-go” strategy with players who don’t come to an agreement before the arbitration filing deadline, though the club plans to indeed go to a hearing with catcher Jason Castro, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. “It’s perfectly clear that Jason’s arbitration case is 100 percent file and go,” a source familiar with the negotiations told Drellich. “Given that fact, I see no way this case could settle at this point.” The Astros offered Castro a $5MM salary for 2016 while Castro filed for $5.25MM. (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Castro for a $4.6MM salary.) It isn’t yet clear if Houston is also intent on going to a hearing with Evan Gattis, the team’s only other arb-eligible player who is still without an agreement.
In another piece from Drellich, he looks at what could be next for the Astros and Cardinals in the data breach scandal involving the two clubs once former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa is sentenced in April. (For a refresher on this unusual situation, click here and here.) More information about what was accessed from the Astros’ proprietary data network could come to light at Correa’s sentencing hearing, and Drellich speaks to several attorneys and security sources about what the next steps could be for both teams, Correa and Major League Baseball. While the league could punish the Cards with a fine or taking away draft picks, it may be harder for the Astros to claim they should be compensated themselves.

Astros, Dallas Keuchel Avoid Arbitration

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2016 at 1:36pm CDT

The Astros and reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.25MM salary, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (on Twitter). That figure will set a new record for the largest salary ever awarded to a first-time arbitration eligible starting pitcher, shattering the previous record of $4.35MM (held by both Dontrelle Willis and David Price). Keuchel, a client of Frontline Athlete Management, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive $6.4MM this offseason, but he cleared even that aggressive projection by about 13 percent.

Arbitration Breakdown: Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey

By Matt Swartz | January 15, 2016 at 8:25am CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Just like last year, our arbitration model expects three pitchers to break the decade-old record for starting pitchers reaching their first-year of eligibility for arbitration. As is generally the case, these pitchers are excellent extension candidates, and extensions are a big part of the reason why Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM arbitration salary from 2006 has stood this long as the record.

In reality, the record really should have been broken several times already. Most notably, Tim Lincecum was offered $8MM in 2010 when he requested $13MM upon exchanging figures with the Giants. He ultimately earned $9MM as part of a multi-year deal, but Willis’ record technically still stood, because Lincecum had not signed a one-year deal. Clayton Kershaw in 2012 was offered $6.5MM when requesting $10MM and ultimately signed a multi-year deal, giving him $7.75MM his first year. Just last year, one of the three pitchers projected to break Willis’ record, Lance Lynn, made $7MM as part of a multi-year deal, although it is less clear he would have earned that much had he not signed his three-year deal.

The strongest of the three cases this year is that of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel. He went 20-8 in 2015 with a 2.48 in 232 innings. The only other two platform-year Cy Young winners in recent history have been Lincecum and Kershaw, but both of them clearly had stronger careers than Keuchel before winning their Cy Young Awards. Lincecum had a 2.90 career ERA and Kershaw’s career ERA was 2.88, while Keuchel only has a 3.58 career ERA and was at 4.16 before his Cy Young season. Similarly, Lincecum was 40-17 career at the time, and Kershaw was 42-28, while Keuchel is only 41-35.

In addition to Keuchel, two other pitchers are projected to top the $4.35MM record for first-time eligible starting pitchers. Shelby Miller only went 6-17 in 2015, but his 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in his All-Star platform year, along with his 3.22 career ERA in 575 1/3 innings give him a strong projection anyway. Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings in his platform year, and he has a 25-18 career record with a 2.53 career ERA in 427 innings. While Keuchel is projected to earn $6.4MM, Miller is projected to earn $4.9MM, and Harvey is projected to earn $4.7MM .

Despite no hurler topping Willis’ $4.35MM record, a number of pitchers have gotten very close in recent years. Five players in the last six years have landed between $4MM and $4.35MM on one-year deals, and many more have received multi-year deals. Comparing Keuchel, Miller, and Harvey with these five hurlers, along with a few other players who fell just short of $4MM will help figure out whether our projection for these pitchers is appropriate.

Keuchel seems like a safe bet to break the $4.35MM record if he does have a one-year award or goes to a hearing. David Price, who tied Willis’ $4.35MM record, was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 224 1/3 innings in his platform year, which Keuchel bested in each category. Keuchel also has the same number of wins as Price did for his career at the time (41) and a similar ERA (3.38 for Price, 3.58 for Keuchel). Strengthening Keuchel’s argument is the fact that Price had nearly 100 fewer career innings when he tied Willis’ record.

Chris Tillman, who earned $4.32MM last year, did so after a 13-6 record with 3.34 ERA in his platform year and only a 4.00 career ERA with 45 career wins. Keuchel clearly should out-earn Tillman, Price and Willis handily, although he is likely to fall short of the respective $8MM and $6.5MM figures that were offered to Kershaw and Lincecum prior to their multi-year deals. I suspect Keuchel will miss the $6.4MM projection, but could easily get close to $6MM — comfortably establishing a new record.

Shelby Miller may have a harder time hitting his projection. I suspect that the model is struggling to find pitchers with an ERA as good and with as many innings who did not have many wins. A couple of recent comparables emerge, both of which had single-digit wins in their platform year with low ERAs. Stephen Strasburg in 2014 earned $3.97MM a couple years ago after going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in his platform year, but his 183 innings that year are short of Miller’s 205, and Miller’s 575 career innings handily top Strasburg’s 434.

Travis Wood earned $3.9MM two years ago with a 9-12 platform year record, 200 platform year innings and 564 career innings, although his career ERA was 3.83. Miller easily bests that mark with 3.22. Their platform year ERAs were similar, however, with Wood at 3.11 and Miller at 3.02. Miller also struck out a few more hitters than Wood had. Overall, both Strasburg and Wood getting just shy of $4MM two years ago with worse pre-platform performances suggests that Miller should get over $4MM, even if his $4.9MM projection will be harder to land. Most likely, he will end up between $4MM and the $4.35MM record, unless Keuchel or Harvey re-sets the market and pushes his number upward.

It’s difficult to find comparables for Harvey, partly because of his injuries and partly because his playoff performance in 2015 could help his case. Cole Hamels’ case after his 2008 playoff success (although he was the World Series MVP) would have been a good match, even though it is stale, but he signed a multi-year deal instead. He did earn $4.35MM in a multi-year deal that could be a useful comparison. Hamels similarly did not have many platform year wins despite a strong ERA — he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, which compares somewhat favorably to Harvey’s 13-8 with 2.71. Hamels did have 227 innings though, compared with Harvey’s 189. On the other hand, Harvey’s 2.53 career ERA clearly outdoes the 3.43 ERA held by Hamels at the time.

Mike Minor got a one-year deal for $3.85MM a couple years ago after going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings, although his 3.90 career ERA is clearly worse than Harvey’s. However, his 507 1/3 career innings at the time exceed Harvey’s 427.

It is not too challenging to make a case that David Price’s numbers when he got $4.35MM are similar to Miller and Harvey. Both Miller and Harvey possess superior ERA marks, although they each also had fewer innings. Harvey’s record was better (13-8 versus 12-13) but Miller’s was worse (6-17). Price’s 3.38 career ERA was similar to Miller’s 3.22, but Harvey’s 2.53 is better. On the other hand, Price and Miller had matching innings totals, while Harvey was about 150 innings short.

It does not seem obvious that Harvey or Miller can top the Price/Willis record, so I suspect both of them will end up in the $4MM to $4.35MM range. Obviously, if Keuchel shatters Price’s record in advance, Harvey or Miller could have a better opportunity to top that figure themselves, but I would bet the model’s projections for this pair ultimately proves to be too high.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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