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Dallas Keuchel

Astros, Dallas Keuchel Have Not Talked Extension This Offseason

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The Astros and reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel have not discussed a contract extension this winter, agent Darek Braunecker tells MLB Network Radio (via Twitter).  The two sides have talked about a new deal in the past, but that apparently hasn’t taken place in the last couple of months.

“At this point, we have not engaged the club in any sort of long-term discussions. It’s common knowledge that we had some discussion during the season last year and it was just preliminary seeing where one another stood. They approached us, kicked the tires, and got a sense where both parties were at that time,” Braunecker said.

The 28-year-old Keuchel was fighting for a rotation spot as recently as Spring Training 2014, but his remarkable transformation into a bona fide ace atop the Houston rotation was completed with a dominant follow-up to a breakout 2014 season. Keuchel led the AL with 232 innings (trailing only Clayton Kershaw’s 232 2/3 innings for the MLB lead) and worked to a pristine 2.48 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and an AL-best 61.7 percent ground-ball rate.

Keuchel is eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and is set for a significant payout in 2016 thanks to his dominant performance in 2015 capped by a Cy Young award.  A deal could make sense for both sides, but Keuchel will be demanding a hefty pay day.  The hurler is currently slated to hit the open market heading into his age-31 season and the Astros, presumably, would want to lock down at least one of his free agency years. Delaying his free agency by even one year would probably put a five-year max on the free-agent deal Keuchel could secure, as teams rarely guarantee pitchers’ age-37 seasons in long-term deals.  Then again, the two sides could conceivably work out a deal that only covers Keuchel’s arbitration years, leaving his potential future free agent fortune unaffected.

Extension Notes: Crawford, Belt, Keuchel, Harper

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Brandon Crawford didn’t want play anywhere other than San Francisco, which is why he was so insistent on full no-trade protection in his recent contract extension, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic writes.  Giants GM Bobby Evans and Joel Wolfe, Crawford’s agent, first discussed an extension last spring but talks didn’t really go anywhere, so discussions were re-opened in October while Evans was waiting for free agency to open.  As Pavlovic notes, locking Crawford up early means the Giants can now use the Gold Glove-winning shortstop as a selling point to attract free agent starters.  Crawford has his extension settled, and here’s some more news about other stars who may be in line for big multi-year deals…

  • With Crawford’s contract settled, Brandon Belt could be the next Giant to receive an extension, Pavlovic writes in a separate piece. Evans said he’s had some talks with Belt’s representatives but it’s possible they could settle his 2016 contract first before exploring a longer-term deal.  Belt’s concussion history isn’t an obstacle, as Evans said the Giants have “gotten very good medical info that doesn’t give us concerns about Brandon’s health.”  Belt hit .280/.356/.478 with 18 homers in 556 plate appearances last season, and while the Giants were still prone to sitting him against left-handed pitching, Belt posted a very respectable .802 OPS in 145 PA against southpaws.  He’s projected by MLBTR to earn $6.2MM in 2016, his second year of arbitration eligibility.  San Francisco doesn’t have any intention of trading Belt, Pavlovic adds, so rumors of the team’s interest in Chris Davis may be overblown.
  • Dallas Keuchel and the Astros are expected to discuss a long-term deal this offseason and both Keuchel and GM Jeff Luhnow speak to the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich about the possible shape of these talks.  Keuchel is something of a “hard comp,” as Drellich notes, because of how few players have matched his exact career path.  MLBTR’s Steve Adams described some of the main points that will go into the Keuchel negotiations when news first broke of the extension talks in August.
  • Six rival executives gave their guesses about what a Bryce Harper extension might look like to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, with guesses ranging from six years and $180MM to a record-breaking 15-year, $450MM deal with a player opt-out clause.  While the Nationals would be extending Harper at his peak of production, the team would also have some leverage since Harper’s current contract limits his earnings through that would’ve been some very expensive arbitration years.  The executives aren’t sure exactly what form a Harper extension could take, though it could be a moot point since they doubt an extension will be signed — most Scott Boras clients hit free agency rather than sign lengthy extensions with their original teams.  Kilgore’s piece is well worth a full read, as it’s a very interesting look at the numerous factors that will go into Harper’s next contract (whether it’s an extension or a free agent deal) and the six execs present a wide range of fascinating contract scenarios.

Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta Win Cy Young Awards

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Astros left-hander Dallas Keuchel and Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta have won the Cy Young Awards in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced tonight.

Keuchel placed in the top two on all 30 ballots (22 first-place votes, eight second-place), earning a total of 186 points. (Weighted seven points for first place, four for second, three for third, two for fourth and one for fifth.) David Price came in a reasonably close second place, landing 21 second place votes and eight first place votes (plus one third place) for a total of 143 points. Sonny Gray, the only other recipient of a second-place vote, finished third with 82 points. Rounding out the ballot were Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Wade Davis, Felix Hernandez, Collin McHugh, Corey Kluber, Marco Estrada, Andrew Miller, Shawn Tolleson, Carlos Carrasco and Dellin Betances, in that order. (Full voting breakdown here.)

The 27-year-old Keuchel was fighting for a rotation spot as recently as Spring Training 2014, but his remarkable transformation into a bona fide ace atop the Houston rotation was completed with a dominant follow-up to a breakout 2014 season. Keuchel led the AL with 232 innings (trailing only Clayton Kershaw’s 232 2/3 innings for the MLB lead) and worked to a pristine 2.48 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and an AL-best 61.7 percent ground-ball rate. While pitcher wins are no longer as significantly emphasized as they once were, Keuchel’s 20 victories likely still held some weight with many voters (as evidenced, perhaps, by teammate and 19-game winner McHugh receiving votes despite logging a 3.89 ERA).

In the National League, voting was even closer, as most would expect. Arrieta’s 169 points narrowly edged out Zack Greinke’s 147 points, with Clayton Kershaw coming in third with a total of 101. Rounding out the ballot, in order, were Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Jacob deGrom, Mark Melancon and John Lackey. (Full voting breakdown.)

Arrieta delivered a strong first half of the season but ratcheted things up with an historic second half, yielding a breathtaking four earned runs in his final 88 1/3 innings. Arrieta recorded an 89-to-14 K/BB ratio over that dominant stretch and shrank his earned run average from 2.62 to 1.77 in the process. He also led the Senior Circuit with 22 wins, four complete games and three shutouts.

There was a split camp between Arrieta and Greinke, the latter of whom posted a 1.66 ERA — the lowest earned run average since Greg Maddux 20 years ago. Greinke recorded 19 wins and averaged 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings against just 1.6 walks per nine in 222 2/3 innings with the Dodgers this season and also enjoyed an otherworldly run of 45 2/3 scoreless innings over the middle portion of the season. Incredibly, Greinke allowed just 19 runs over his first 19 starts this season.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Amaro, Eppler, Keuchel

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video on FOX Sports:

  • The Phillies haven’t yet decided what to do with GM Ruben Amaro. On the surface, that seems strange, since other teams could soon hire top GM candidates to fill their open positions. The likely reason the Phillies haven’t made a move, Rosenthal suggests, is that incoming club president Andy MacPhail prefers not to rush decisions.
  • Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler is reportedly a top candidate for the open Angels GM job, and he wants the position, even though accepting it would mean working around owner Arte Moreno and influence-wielding manager Mike Scioscia. Eppler is from Southern California and would like to return to the area, Rosenthal says.
  • Dallas Keuchel has put himself in a good negotiating position in potential extension talks with the Astros and he ought not to be desperate to accept one, Rosenthal opines. Keuchel will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and is already set for a significant payout in 2016, one that would only increase if he wins the Cy Young award. On top of that, it’s extremely unlikely that the Astros would non-tender him the following offseason, so he has already nearly guaranteed himself two years of good salaries.

Heyman’s Latest: Williams, Collins, ChiSox, Keuchel, Halos, Dietrich

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In today’s edition of his weekly Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports begins by highlighting the fact that the NL East division title race will determine the fate of Nationals manager Matt Williams and Mets manager Terry Collins. Heyman writes that while Nats GM Mike Rizzo has repeatedly backed Williams, Rizzo is something of a “chorus of one” — publicly, at least. Ownership is extremely frustrated with the team’s recent play, and Heyman points out that it may also be telling that amid multiple reports of players disliking his rigid demeanor, not one player from the Nats has stepped forward to defend Williams. Ownership has already discussed dismissing Williams, Heyman adds. Collins, on the other hand, is in line for a new contract if and when the Mets reach the postseason. Falling behind the Nats and missing the playoffs, though, would harken back to 2007’s epic collapse and almost certainly cost Collins his job. Then again, the Mets have remaining series against the Reds, Braves, Phillies and Marlins, as Heyman points out, so a collapse seems particularly unlikely.

Some other highlights from the column…

  • Jeff Samardzija and another unknown White Sox player were both claimed on the same day that the Yankees claimed David Robertson, Heyman reports. However, the Samardzija claim was, like the Robertson claim, primarily a blocking tactic. Heyman notes that while Samardzija has had a very poor contract season, scouts still love his build, athleticism and competitiveness.
  • Dallas Keuchel and the Astros have tabled extension talks until after the season, per Heyman. Houston hopes to lock its ace up on at least a four-year deal — that’d cover his arbitration years and one free agent season — though as I noted when word of discussions between the two sides broke, Keuchel’s currently slated to hit the open market heading into his age-31 season. Delaying his free agency by even one year would probably put a five-year max on the free-agent deal Keuchel could secure, as teams rarely guarantee pitchers’ age-37 seasons in long-term deals.
  • Regarding the Angels’ GM vacancy, Heyman characterizes recent interviews of internal candidates Matt Klentak and Scott Servais (both assistant GMs) as “perfunctory,” believing an outside hire to be the probably outcome. Klentak could stay on in a role similar to his own, whereas Servais is said by Heyman to be more at odds with manager Mike Scioscia. Kevin Towers, Ned Colletti and Yankees AGM Billy Eppler are all listed as speculative candidates by Heyman.
  • The Dodgers took on about $150K of the remaining $450K on Justin Ruggiano’s salary when they acquired him from the Mariners.
  • The Marlins are coming around on the idea of Derek Dietrich as a Ben Zobrist/Josh Harrison type of player that can play everyday in part due to his versatility. While Dietrich’s defense isn’t on the same level as that highly valuable duo, the Marlins see him as an athletic bat with 25-homer upside. The 26-year-old Dietrich is hitting .263/.359/.514 in spite of a cavernous home park (138 OPS+) and has smashed 10 homers in 64 games while seeing time at first base, third base and in the corner outfield. None of those are even his natural position, but he’s blocked at second base by Dee Gordon, of course.

AL West Notes: Keuchel, Newcomb, Profar, Stearns

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In light of recent reports about preliminary extension talks between the Astros and ace Dallas Keuchel, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards examines the impact that a potential Cy Young Award would have on Keuchel’s arbitration case. Keuchel already has a very good chance at breaking the outdated record for a first-year arbitration-eligible pitcher (Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM record is, as Edwards notes, about a decade old). However, as Edwards explains, the arb process treats award-winners differently, and securing the Cy Young Award could boost his first-year arb price even further. As such, taking home the hardware for being the AL’s best pitcher in 2015, if it happens — and Keuchel indeed has a strong case — could make it difficult for team and player to agree to a fair price to put on Keuchel’s three arbitration seasons, let alone on his free agent years.

A few more items pertaining to the AL West…

  • In his latest Prospect Pipeline Inbox column, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo kicks off by answering the question of whether or not Angels southpaw Sean Newcomb could pitch in the Majors in 2016. Mayo explains that while he wouldn’t have thought so prior to the 2015 campaign, Newcomb has impressively pitched at three levels this season, showing a consistent propensity for strikeouts and ground-balls and thereby placing himself on the fast track to the Majors. While the former No. 15 overall pick (2014) needs to hone his command and improve upon his 4.8 BB/9 rate, Mayo does feel that Newcomb is capable of reaching the Majors in the second half of the 2016 season.
  • Jurickson Profar played in his first regular-season game since Sept. 27, 2013 today, writes Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. The former No. 1 overall prospect served as the designated hitter for the Rangers’ Class-A affiliate today. He’ll continue to rehab there but only in a DH capacity for the remainder of this season. Profar, still just 22 years of age, has missed the past two seasons due to a pair of torn shoulder muscles. He was a consensus Top 10 prospect heading into the 2012 season before emerging as the game’s No. 1 prospect (per Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus) heading into the 2013 campaign. The Rangers will hope to have him healthy again in 2016.
  • As teams trend toward the hiring of younger, analytically savvy general managers, Astros assistant GM David Stearns’ name could become a target, writes Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. While Drellich notes that it’s perhaps a bit early for Stearns to garner serious consideration from other clubs, GM Jeff Luhnow does feel that his lieutenant has the chops to handle a GM role down the line. “There’s several people in our organization that have GM potential, and David’s one of them,” Luhnow said. “I expect over the coming years, as we have success, they’ll get opportunities at least to interview.”

Astros, Dallas Keuchel Have Discussed Long-Term Deal

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Dallas Keuchel will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and is under team control through at least the 2018 season, but the lefty tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that his agent, Darek Braunecker of Frontline Athlete Management, has discussed a multi-year deal with Houston. For his part, Keuchel is very open to remaining in Houston long-term. As he tells Drellich:

“[Houston] is all I’ve known, and it’s where I want to be. I know we’re in a great position for the next probably five, 10 years… it’s all about winning. Me personally, it’s not about the dollar amount. … With that being said, it’s got to be something that’s fair and that’s right for both parties. I’m not trying to break the bank. I’m just out here to have fun and pitch and do the best I can.”

The 27-year-old Keuchel had a breakout season in 2014 and has emerged as one of the American League’s top pitchers with an elite 2015 season that features a 2.37 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 63.1 percent ground-ball rate in 178 2/3 innings. As Drellich notes, comparable pitchers (at least, in terms of service time) such as Wade Miley and Lance Lynn signed away their three arbitration seasons last winter for $19.25MM and $22MM, respectively. Keuchel, however, has a much stronger two-year platform heading into arbitration and could surpass both of those figures for his arb years.

It stands to reason that the Astros would want to secure at least one, if not two or three free agent years for Keuchel, which, in my mind, would need to be valued in the $15-17MM range. However, from the player’s point of view, signing away precious free agent years isn’t as desirable, even if it’s for a relatively sizable sum. Keuchel’s best chance at a $100MM+ contract would be to hit the open market heading into his age-31 season, as he’s currently projected to do. He also has a strong arb case this winter based on his excellent 2014-15 work, so he can reasonably bank on a pair of life-changing paydays in the next two offseasons even if his 2016 campaign doesn’t go as well as 2014-15. Keuchel’s comments about not breaking the bank do offer some hope, however, that he could look to set some kind of precedent for extensions for players with three to four years of service time, as opposed to maximizing his arb salaries and signing a nine-figure contract in the 2018-19 offseason.

There’s also some logic behind the scenario in which Keuchel signs a three-year deal that locks in only his arb seasons. Keuchel would secure his first fortune and still be positioned to hit the free agent heading into his age-31 season. The Astros, in turn, would gain cost certainty over a pitcher whose arb prices could escalate at an abnormally high rate due to his status as one of the American League’s best arms and a potential Cy Young candidate.

Drellich also spoke to right-hander Collin McHugh, who said that he, too, is interested in signing a long-term deal with Houston, although no talks have taken place between the Astros and McHugh’s agents at Moye Sports Associates. McHugh, however, has one less year of service time and won’t be arbitration eligible until next winter. McHugh, another somewhat surprising breakout pitcher in the Astros’ rotation, has pitched to a 3.36 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 313 2/3 innings since being claimed off waivers in the 2013-14 offseason.

Also of note, Drellich reports that the Astros plan to make a run at re-signing Houston native and July trade acquisition Scott Kazmir this winter, though there have unsurprisingly been no talks at this point, as Kazmir is intent on testing the market.

Quick Hits: Hahn, Royals, Luhnow, Cotts

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The White Sox didn’t make any noise on deadline day but things could’ve been much different had a proposed three-team trade been finalized, GM Rick Hahn told reporters (including ESPN Chicago’s Sahadev Sharma).  The deal “would’ve wound up netting us such a [future] piece, a guy who’d been a target for a while,” Hahn said, though talks fizzled about two hours before the 3pm CT deadline.  While no trades were made, Hahn felt some progress was made in negotiations and “hopefully laid the groundwork for some future deals,” while also noting that the ChiSox will explore the August waiver wire for any possible moves.

Here are some items from around baseball as we wrap up an extremely busy week here at MLB Trade Rumors…

  • The Royals also didn’t make any moves yesterday as the team was seemingly hamstrung by an unwillingness to either trade its young players or (perhaps more pressingly) add payroll, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star writes.
  • The Astros were willing to discuss trading their young starters and indeed sent Jarred Cosart to Miami.  Beyond that, the club couldn’t find any satisfactory offers for Collin McHugh or Dallas Keuchel, GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters, including The Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. “Probably Keuchel was the one that we received the most inquiries on…we weren’t willing to move Keuchel,” Luhnow said.  It seemed as if Luhnow cared for the McHugh offers even less, saying other teams apparently “felt like just because we picked him up off of waivers we might get rid of him for cheap.”
  • The Rangers have spoken with left-hander Neal Cotts about a new contract for next season, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports.  Cotts earned $2.2MM in 2014, his final arbitration-eligible year, and he’ll be a free agent this winter.  Grant believes this new contract could “likely be a club-friendly deal.”  Given that Cotts is 34 and has a checkered injury history, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cotts look for security over a higher dollar figure.
  • Also from Grant’s piece, he notes that while the Rangers are suffering through a disastrous season, they could quickly rebound next year.
  • Looking at teams who did and didn’t make key moves, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports lists the 15 winners and eight losers of the trade deadline period.
  • Big TV contracts are seen as huge boosts to team revenues, yet as Fangraphs’ Wendy Thurm observes, broadcaster disputes have left Padres, Astros and Dodgers fans unable to watch their teams play on local TV while the Nationals and Orioles seem poised for a major legal battle over MASN’s broadcasting fees.
  • The Tigers’ acquisition of David Price drew all the headlines yesterday, but the team’s need for a left-handed reliever went unaddressed at the deadline, MLB.com’s Jason Beck points out.

Astros Fielding Interest In Cosart, Not Shopping Keuchel

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12:03pm: The Marlins and Rangers are two teams that are checking in on Cosart, Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).

9:59am: The Astros are “very busy” taking calls on righty Jarred Cosart, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Houston has taken lefty Dallas Keuchel off the market, however, though it always seemed a longshot for him to be dealt.

Houston has been said to be willing to listen on its young starting pitching, which has featured some better-than-expected performances. Of course, the biggest surprises have comes from Keuchel and Collin McHugh. Unsurprisingly, the Astros appear more hesitant to deal either of those arms.

But Cosart, 24, has turned in a solid season in his own right. He owns a 4.41 ERA through 116 1/3 frames with 5.8 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 and a sterling 56.5% groundball rate. That has been good for a 4.02 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, and 4.42 SIERA — hardly ace-level numbers, to be sure, but useful and promising enough given his age. Of course, much of Cosart’s value lies in the fact that he will not even be eligible for arbitration until 2017.

 

Astros Open To Trading Keuchel, McHugh, Cosart

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TUESDAY, 7:11pm: Houston is reluctant to deal Keuchel, a GM tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle, who discusses the club’s decisions on whether to deal arms that come with future control. The Orioles could be a fit for the emergent southpaw if the Astros are willing to part with him, sources tell Drellich.

1:18pm: The Astros are getting increased calls about their pitchers after yesterday’s comments from Luhnow, reports MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (on Twitter). The goal remains the same, says McTaggart: MLB-ready offense.

MONDAY, 6:21pm: When asked about prospective deals Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said there’s “nothing that feels close” at this time, tweets Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. The GM went on to say (link), “There’s conversations happening and there have been for the past week multiple conversations happening every day.”

5:32pm: The Astros have previously said that they weren’t inclined to move left-hander Dallas Keuchel or right-hander Collin McHugh, both of whom are in the midst of breakout seasons, but Luhnow softened his stance when speaking to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (12:23 timestamp in the update window). The Houston GM tells Rosenthal that the lack of available starting pitching has prompted him to consider dealing Keuchel, McHugh, or right-hander Jarred Cosart:

“We do seem to have an excess of pretty good young starters so we wouldn’t rule anything out. We’d have to get back a big-league piece, preferably a bat, in a package that makes sense for the future and present.”

The 26-year-old Keuchel can be controlled through the 2018 season, while McHugh, 27, and Cosart, 24, are controllable through the 2019 campaign. Keuchel and McHugh, in particular, have had surprisingly strong seasons, with Keuchel posting a 3.11 ERA in 127 1/3 innings, and McHugh notching a 3.45 ERA with 102 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings (10.4 K/9).

Keuchel was Houston’s seventh-round selection in the 2009 draft, while McHugh was claimed off waivers (Houston had tried to trade for him in 2013), and Cosart was acquired in the Hunter Pence deal back in 2011. None of three are eligible for arbitration after the season. Keuchel will be arb-eligible following the 2015 season, while Cosart and McHugh are eligible following the 2016 season.

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