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Eguy Rosario

Padres Sign Michael Wacha

By Steve Adams | February 16, 2023 at 10:30am CDT

The Padres announced Thursday they’ve signed free-agent righty Michael Wacha. The CAA client will reportedly receive a $3.5MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary in 2023. After the upcoming season, the Padres will have to decide whether or not to pick up successive $16MM options for 2024 and 2025 — essentially a two-year, $32MM deal. If the club declines that option, Wacha will have a series of player options, respectively valued at $6.5MM in 2024 and then $6MM in 2025-26. Unlike the team option, Wacha’s options are a series of one-year decisions he’ll be able to make each offseason.

Since player options are considered guaranteed, all this amounts to a $26MM guarantee over four years, combining this year’s money with the three options. Additionally, Wacha can earn an extra $500K for reaching 20 and 25 starts and $1MM for 30 starts this season and any year under a player option. The incentives would not be available for 2024-25 if the club triggers its option. In a corresponding 40-man roster move, the Padres placed infielder Eguy Rosario on the 60-day injured list. It was reported a couple of weeks ago that Rosario suffered a broken ankle and would be out until “midsummer.”

Wacha, 31, was the best remaining starting pitcher on the market and arguably the best free agent left standing overall. The right-hander turned in 127 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball in 2022 — a fine rebound showing after a tough three-year stretch from 2019-21. Wacha’s 6% walk rate in 2022 was particularly sharp, and he scaled back his home run rate quite a bit in 2022 (1.83 HR/9 from 2019-21; 1.27 HR/9 in 2022). He was better than average at limiting hard contact from his opponents, surrendering an 88.2 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate.

The 2022 performance, however, wasn’t without its red flags. A pair of trips to the injured list, one for an intercostal strain and another for shoulder inflammation, limited him to 23 starts. That shoulder issue was his fourth IL placement due to shoulder trouble since 2014. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground-ball rate were below the league average, albeit by a matter of a couple percentage points each.

Ultimately, Wacha had a solid season but can’t reasonably be expected to replicate that shiny 3.32 ERA. Beyond some of last year’s under-the-hood numbers, it should be pointed out that from 2019-21, Wacha pitched 285 1/3 innings with a 5.11 ERA between the Cardinals, Mets and Rays. Wacha’s strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates in that stretch all compare favorably to his 2022 work, however, and the main culprit for his struggles in that stretch could well have been an anomalously high home-run rate that trended back toward his career levels in 2022.

In all likelihood, Wacha’s true talent level lies somewhere between the extremes of that 2019-21 stretch and his sharp 2022 output. Fielding-independent marks pegged him around 4.00 last year (4.14 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA). That’d make him a solid option closer to the back end of a big league rotation, which is just where he’s likely to slot in with his new club in San Diego. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are slotted into the top three rotation spots, but Wacha will give the Friars a solid No. 4 option.

Both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have been expected to be utilized as starters with the Padres in 2023, but it’s not a given that Wacha will push either to the bullpen. There’s been talk of a six-man rotation in San Diego, which is only sensible given that Martinez and Lugo both worked primarily out of the bullpen in 2022. Martinez made 10 starts for the Padres but 37 relief appearances, finishing out the season at 106 1/3 innings. Lugo has been exclusively a reliever in 2021-22, with his last start coming for the 2020 Mets. Both righties will likely see their workloads monitored in 2023, so bringing Wacha into the mix both gives the Padres some sorely needed depth and gives them an organic mechanism with which to manage the innings counts for Martinez and Lugo.

Even looking beyond the possible six-man rotation, the Padres are now simply better positioned to withstand an injury to one of their top five arms. That’s of particular importance, as recent trades have thinned out the system’s depth. Gone are MacKenzie Gore, Chris Paddack, Luis Patino, Cal Quantrill and Robert Gasser, who were traded in the respective packages that netted Juan Soto, Taylor Rogers, Snell, Mike Clevinger (who departed as a free agent) and Josh Hader.

The top depth options behind Martinez and Lugo on the 40-man roster had been Adrian Morejon (57 1/3 innings in 2022), Ryan Weathers (6.73 ERA in Triple-A), Reiss Knehr (6.88 ERA in Triple-A), Pedro Avila (13 1/3 MLB innings) and Jay Groome (zero MLB experience; 67 innings in Triple-A). Non-roster veterans in camp include Julio Teheran, Wilmer Font and Aaron Brooks. Suffice it to say, any serious injury to the starting staff pre-Wacha would’ve stretched the depth; two might have been disastrous. Wacha helps to lessen such risks.

Wacha’s deal was surely structured with care, in an effort to keep the team shy of the third luxury tax barrier. The convoluted option sequence serves to tamp down the deal’s average annual value. Wacha’s deal comes with a $6.5MM hit for competitive balance tax purposes, with the 2023 money and three player options all treated as guaranteed years from a CBT angle.

San Diego had been estimated less than $7MM away from the third tier of luxury penalization, which kicks in at $273MM. If the Friars exceed that point, they’ll begin to be taxed at a 75% rate for any money spent up to $293MM (rather than the 45% rate at which they were taxed on the previous $20MM spent). That’s a small slap on the wrist by itself, but stepping into the third bracket of luxury penalties also pushes a team’s top pick in the next year’s draft (i.e. 2024) back by ten places. The team’s league-allotted bonus pool is also inherently reduced, in conjunction with the diminished slot value of that pick.

The Padres are a team in all-out win-now mode, but they’ve ostensibly been unwilling to pass the $273MM threshold and incur the associated draft penalties. Even this agreement with Wacha would likely not have been possible had the team not signed the aforementioned Darvish to an extension that tamped down the AAV on his own contract, giving them a couple million dollars of extra wiggle room with regard to the tax.

The apparent unwillingness to step into tier three of the luxury tax is understandable, to an extent, given that the front office surely wants to recoup some of the minor league talent that was lost in trades for Soto, Hader and others. That said, it’s still possible that in-season needs will prompt the team to make a tough decision on that front, as the trade deadline could come down to a matter of taking on salary (and crossing into that tax bracket anyway) or persuading trade partners to pay down the salary of any players being sent to San Diego, which would likely require the Padres to surrender additional minor league talent anyhow. There’s an argument that the Padres should’ve just barreled past the tax line in the offseason, but it seems they’ll continue trying to thread the needle of fielding the strongest possible club while preserving the strongest possible 2024 draft. Whether that path remains tenable come July remains to be seen.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report the agreement, financial terms and incentive breakdown.

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Newsstand San Diego Padres Transactions Eguy Rosario Michael Wacha

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Padres Prospect Eguy Rosario Suffers Broken Ankle

By Mark Polishuk | February 3, 2023 at 12:33pm CDT

Padres infield prospect Eguy Rosario suffered a broken ankle during winter ball workouts, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.  Rosario now faces a lengthy recovery process, as Sanders writes that the infielder won’t be back in action until “midsummer.”

It’s a tough setback for the 23-year-old Rosario, who made his Major League debut with a seven-game cup of coffee last season.  Rosario only had six plate appearances in his first trip to the Show, but as Sanders notes, Rosario was expected to contend for a backup infield job this spring.  The versatile infielder has played extensively at shortstop, second base, and third base over his minor league career, and also has a handful of games as a first baseman on his resume.

Rosario was an international signing in 2015, and his batting numbers have steadily improved as he has made his way up San Diego’s minor league ladder.  While the canceled 2020 minor league season took him off the field entirely, Rosario hit .281/.360/.455 with 12 homers over 480 Double-A plate appearances in 2021, and he then took another step forward with a .288/.368/.508 slash line and 22 home runs over 564 PA at the Triple-A level last year.  Rosario also brings speed to his offensive profile, with 72 steals (out of 103 attempts) over his last three minor league campaigns.

MLB Pipeline ranks Rosario fifth on its list of the Padres’ top 30 prospects, while Baseball America has Rosario slotted ninth.  BA’s scouting report views Rosario as a utility infield type at the MLB level, with a strong throwing arm helping make up for some defensive miscues (though Rosario is ultimately better suited for second or third base, rather than shortstop).  Playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League provided at least some inflation to Rosario’s Triple-A numbers, but BA’s report notes that Rosario also worked to add strength to his modest frame of 5’9″ and 150 pounds.

Unfortunately for Rosario, he’ll now have to wait a while longer to resume his playing career, and hope that the ankle injury doesn’t impact his baserunning or mobility in the field.  The Padres already have a good amount of infield depth given their signing of Xander Bogaerts and the eventual return of Fernando Tatis Jr. from suspension, but with Rosario out, Brandon Dixon, Matthew Batten, or minor league signing Max Schrock might have a clearer path to a bench job.

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San Diego Padres Eguy Rosario

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Padres Select MacKenzie Gore, Three Others

By Sean Bavazzano and Anthony Franco | November 19, 2021 at 5:23pm CDT

The Padres have selected the contracts of left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, right-handed pitchers Efrain Contreras and Steven Wilson, as well as infielder Eguy Rosario per a team announcement. In a corresponding move, outfielder Jorge Oña and Reggie Lawson have been outrighted to Triple-A El Paso. Their 40-man roster is currently full following these transactions.

Gore’s stock has fluctuated wildly in recent seasons. The #3 overall pick in the 2017 draft out of a North Carolina high school, he dominated in the low minors and quickly emerged as one of the game’s top prospects. The southpaw has entered each of the past two seasons among the game’s top ten farmhands, in the estimation of Baseball America, with the evaluators suggesting he had the chance to be a rare #1 caliber arm.

Over the past two seasons, though, Gore’s stock has taken a rather significant hit. There were rumblings of control issues at the alternate training site in 2020, and Gore spent a good chunk of 2021 at the team’s complex facility trying to iron out his mechanics. He only logged 34 cumulative innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A.

Certainly, there was no chance of the Padres leaving Gore unprotected in the Rule 5. But it remains to be seen how much they can depend on him going into 2022. The organization likely envisioned Gore as a potential rotation option coming into 2021, and his issues in the minors loomed even larger as the big league staff was crushed by injuries. Getting the 22-year-old back on track is no doubt one of the top offseason priorities for the club’s development staff.

Contreras missed the entire season recovering from a November 2020 Tommy John surgery. Baseball America nevertheless ranked him the Friars’ #18 prospect midseason, calling the 21-year-old a potential back-end starter with plus control.

Wilson, 27, was an eighth-round pick out of Santa Clara in 2018. BA ranked him 30th in the system, praising his mid-90s heater. He pitched to a 3.43 ERA with a huge 40.1% strikeout rate with Triple-A El Paso and could be a big league bullpen option next season.

Rosario, 22, is the #19 prospect in the system according to BA. He’s a hit-first infielder whose bounced around the diamond in the minors. Rosario posted a strong .281/.360/.455 mark with 12 homers in 481 plate appearances with Double-A Amarillo.

Turning to the outrighted players, both Ona and Lawson were once well-regarded prospects themselves. They’ve got little to no big league experience, though. Ona has just 15 plate appearances at the highest level (all in 2020); Lawson has topped out at Double-A. Both had injury-wrecked 2021 seasons in the minors and will now have to work their way back onto the 40-man.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Efrain Contreras Eguy Rosario Jorge Oña MacKenzie Gore Reggie Lawson Steven Wilson

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