Indians Disinclined To Deal Francisco Lindor
The Indians “prefer not to deal” star shortstop Francisco Lindor this winter, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Though his name his been through several rounds of the rumor mill, it seems the 26-year-old will remain in Cleveland — at least for the time being.
This report matches up with other recent chatter surrounding Lindor, who was said to be carrying a massive price tag on the market. Understandably, the Indians aren’t willing to make a deal that delivers anything less than a bonanza back.
It has been fair to wonder whether the Indians would put real effort into structuring a deal involving Lindor. The club wasn’t able to gain traction in prior extension talks. He’s now projected to earn $16.7MM entering his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. That’s a pittance for his production, but with Lindor closing in on the open market it seemed the small-market organization was positioned to listen to offers.
There could still be chatter surrounding Lindor (as well as some other huge names) over the coming days, weeks, and months. But if the Indians are indeed disinclined to make a deal, it’ll be incumbent upon other organizations to come forward with offers strong enough to spur interest on the part of an otherwise unwilling Cleveland organization.
Of course, even if Lindor stays put for the rest of this winter, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll make it to free agency in an Indians uniform. Future circumstances will dictate the course of events, but Lindor would surely feature as a trade candidate next winter — if not sooner.
Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays
There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.
Here’s more from other areas of the market:
- Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
- The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
- We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
- The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.
AL Notes: Lindor, Wheeler, Yanks, Twins
Let’s take a quick look around the American League…
- Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor is a prominent trade candidate, at least speculatively. However, as you’d expect, it’s going to be extremely difficult to pry the superstar out of Cleveland. The Indians would have to be “overwhelmed” by an offer in order to part with the 26-year-old four-time All-Star this offseason, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com writes. Lindor has just two years of control left and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension, meaning there’s a case the Indians should strongly consider trading him before next season. However, the perennial contenders apparently want to see how they fare coming out of the gate next season before deciding Lindor’s future, Hoynes suggests. If that’s the case, we may not see a Lindor trade until at least around next July’s trade deadline.
- Right-hander Zack Wheeler has become popular on the open market, but it doesn’t appear the longtime Met will be sticking in New York. Although the Yankees have shown interest in the hard-throwing Wheeler, they seemingly aren’t willing to hand him a nine-figure contract, Andy Martino of SNY tweets. Signs are pointing to the 29-year-old Wheeler landing a contract worth at least $100MM, so if the Yankees don’t want to go there, they’ll likely have to look elsewhere for starting help.
- Righty Matt Wisler, whom the Twins claimed off waivers from the Mariners in October, will make just over $700K in 2020, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. That looks like a rather team-friendly amount for the out-of-options Wisler, who had been projected to earn $1MM next season. The 27-year-old Wisler, a former top prospect, divided last season between Seattle and San Diego and logged a 5.61 ERA/4.23 FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates of 11.05 and 2.81 across 51 1/3 innings.
Central Notes: Lindor, Tigers, Cards, Pirates
We may be in for weeks of speculation centering on Indians superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, who’s a potential trade candidate because he’s running out of team control and unlikely to sign an extension. For instance, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com runs down reasons to trade Lindor now that he’s down to his second-last year of arbitration eligibility, while Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com names potential in-house replacements for the long haul should the Indians deal the 26-year-old. The team is indeed “receiving a lot of trade calls” for Lindor, Jon Heyman of MLB.com tweets. As you’d expect, though, the Indians’ public stance is that Lindor is likely to stay put. “My expectation is Frankie will be the shortstop Opening Day next year,” president Chris Antonetti said.
Here’s more from the game’s Central divisions…
- Tigers general manager Al Avila said this week that a “bat” – likely either an outfielder or a first baseman – as well as a backup catcher are on his shopping list, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com relays. It doesn’t seem that the Tigers will be adding a shortstop from outside, though. Rather, it looks as if utilityman Niko Goodrum is the favorite to land the job. Avila’s of the belief that young shortstop Willi Castro and catcher Jake Rogers, who made their major league debuts in 2019, need more seasoning at the Triple-A level.
- Various injuries have prevented 25-year-old Cardinals right-hander Alex Reyes from realizing his vast potential, but it appears he’ll enjoy “a normal offseason progression” this winter, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Reyes, once among the game’s elite prospects, had an outstanding debut over 46 innings in 2016. He then missed all of 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, threw 27 innings in 2018 (four in the majors) as a result of surgery to repair a tendon in his lat muscle and totaled just 40 1/3 frames this year (three at the MLB level) because of multiple health issues – including a strained pectoral.
- Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez underwent left foot surgery Wednesday and won’t resume baseball activities for 10 to 12 weeks, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets. It’s the second time Gonzalez has undergone surgery as a Pirate. The offseason acquisition from last winter underwent a procedure in April to repair a fractured left clavicle, which was one of multiple injuries that helped sideline him for the majority of the 2019 campaign. The 28-year-old posted woeful production over the 156 plate appearances he amassed, as he hit .254/.301/.317 with only one home run. He’s projected to earn $800K via arbitration in 2020.
AL Notes: Rays, d’Arnaud, Lindor, Bloom
To kick things off this Sunday morning, we’ll round up a few odds and ends from the American League.
- The Rays will look to address their offense this offseason, says GM Erik Neander (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Specifically, Neander singled out catcher as an area the front office will need to address. Travis d’Arnaud was quite effective in Tampa after being acquired in a minor trade with the Dodgers, but he’s now a free agent. The Rays could explore a reunion with d’Arnaud, Topkin adds, although his strong season positions him well among the second tier of catchers on the open market. (MLBTR forecasts a two year, $14MM deal for the veteran backstop). Mike Zunino remains under team control, but his $4.9MM arbitration projection makes for a tough call for an organization with ever-looming payroll limitations.
- Speaking of low-revenue clubs, when is the appropriate time for the Indians to market Francisco Lindor? That question is explored by ESPN’s Buster Olney, who argues that a Lindor trade is a question of ‘when,’ not ‘if.’ Lindor is unquestionably one of the game’s best talents and its most marketable personalities, but there’s no indication Cleveland believes they’ll keep him in the fold long-term. Lindor will take home hefty arbitration sums each of the next two years; MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects a $16.7MM award this offseason, with another raise after next year almost certainly to follow. As Olney notes, the Orioles were underwhelmed with the offers they received on their superstar infielder, Manny Machado, when they shopped him in the 2017-18 offseason with one season remaining of team control. Perhaps Cleveland would be better suited to jump the market and trade Lindor while he still has two seasons before reaching free agency, although doing so would obviously be a massive blow to the team’s chances of contending in 2020.
- Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom joined WEEI’s Rob Bradford on the latest episode of the Bradfo Sho podcast. Bloom explained that he’s making progress in getting up to date on the Red Sox’s systems and getting to know key people in the organization, including Mookie Betts, who figures to dominate the rumors circuit until Boston makes a decision on his future. Bloom also addressed the difficulty for front office members in trading away players to whom they’ve developed personal connections, J.D. Martinez’s decision to opt-in to his contract, and the payroll discrepancy between his former employer, the Rays, and the Red Sox in a wide-ranging conversation.
NL Notes: Cubs, Epstein, Cardinals, Lindor, Padres
For those looking for an indication of the Cubs‘ offseason spending strategy, this week’s comments from president Theo Epstein provided little satisfaction–even if Epstein has previously shown a willingness to lift the curtain on club plans. “As an organization, we’re not talking about payroll or luxury tax at all,” Epstein is quoted as saying in an article from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. “I feel like every time we’ve been at all specific, or even allowed people to make inferences from things we’ve said, it just puts us in a hole strategically.”
While North Side fans would likely love for the club to pursue upper-echelon free agents like Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon, Bastian calculates that such a development is unlikely given the club’s current payroll commitments. Chicago is accountable for roughly $107MM toward eight contracts next season, before providing for team options on Anthony Rizzo ($16.5MM) and Jose Quintana ($10.5MM). The Cubs opened 2019 with a payroll in excess of $203MM, before finishing with a disappointing 84-78 record and missing the playoffs.
In more news from around the NL…
- After the Dodgers were connected to Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor this week, is it possible the Cardinals could also take a run at Cleveland’s superstar infielder? That’s a question pondered by Mark Saxon in a reader mailbag for The Athletic–with Saxon venturing that such a pursuit could be manageable for St. Louis (link). While it’s important to underline that this is only the speculation of one writer, Saxon draws up a potential trade package headlined by prospect Nolan Gorman and one of Paul DeJong, Tommy Edman, or Kolten Wong. While such a hypothetical package has its merits (and it’s laudable for a writer to go out on a limb regarding trade scenarios), it is worth pointing out that Gorman, at 19, is likely two years away from being considered an MLB-ready contributor. MLBTR readers, of course, took their own crack at projecting Lindor’s future in a recent poll.
- After a 2019 season that saw the Padres use eight different rookie pitchers in their starting rotation, writer AJ Cassavell of MLB.com notes that–strange though it may sound–the club is likely more focused on offense heading into the offseason (link). As Cassavell notes, pitching prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino promise to aid a 2020 rotation mix that includes Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, Dinelson Lamet, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, and Cal Quantrill, whereas the projected lineup of new manager Jayce Tingler provides a few more question marks. The veteran scribe underscores that, by virtue of wRC+, San Diego received worse-than-average production at every position save for shortstop in 2019. Although Cassavell offers second base, catcher, and outfield as areas in need of an upgrade, it might be added that San Diego ran out well-regarded rookies at those spots for much of 2019 in Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, and Josh Naylor. It stands to reason that the club could simply look for sophomore improvements at those particular positions while moving to offset Eric Hosmer‘s tremendous struggles against left-handed pitching (59 wRC+ against lefties in 2019) by way of a first base platoon addition.
MLBTR Poll: Francisco Lindor’s Future
We may be in for at least a couple of months of rumors centering on superstar Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, who came up in trade speculation earlier Monday. The Dodgers are reportedly set to explore taking an offseason run at Lindor, already a four-time All-Star who won’t turn 26 until next month. Los Angeles is likely part of a large group of teams with interest in Lindor, as he’s clearly an elite, in-his-prime player who holds down one of baseball’s most valuable positions with aplomb.
In Cleveland’s shoes, it’s hardly a slam dunk the team will market Lindor. Since Lindor debuted in 2015, the Indians have come within striking distance of a World Series title, they’ve won three division championships and haven’t finished below .500. Even this season, which was a disappointment and non-playoff campaign for the club, it still won 93 games. Lindor was no small part of the Indians’ latest respectable performance, as he accounted for 4.4 fWAR, 34 home runs and 22 stolen bases despite missing the first couple weeks of the season with calf and ankle injuries. Factoring in his most recent output, the switch-hitting Lindor is tied with the venerable Jose Altuve for sixth among position players in fWAR (27.2).
Thanks to Lindor’s career-long brilliance, he’s set to earn a somewhat lofty salary in 2020 – his penultimate year of arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Lindor will rake in $16.7MM, which obviously isn’t the type of salary just any team could absorb. However, Lindor is spectacular enough to make it worthwhile, and with the possible exception of Didi Gregorius, the upcoming class of free-agent shortstops offers little in the way of answers. With that in mind, the Indians probably wouldn’t have difficulty landing appealing offers for Lindor.
Of course, whether the Indians are willing to seriously consider moving Lindor (or someone like right-hander Corey Kluber, another speculative trade candidate) is in question. There still appears to be enough talent on hand for the team to push for a playoff berth next season, after all. The Indians could easily retain Lindor and attempt to make another run at a World Series in 2020, or they could at least keep him until the July trade deadline and see where they stand at that point. That said, the trade value of Lindor is surely high now, and the small-market Indians appear highly unlikely to extend him before he’s eligible to reach free agency. Perhaps the upcoming winter is the right time to aggressively market Lindor, then. How do you expect it to pan out?
(Poll link for app users)
Will the Indians trade Lindor this offseason?
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Yes 52% (4,961)
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No 48% (4,600)
Total votes: 9,561
Dodgers Reportedly Expected To Explore Trade For Francisco Lindor
After a disappointingly early postseason exit, the Dodgers are back to plotting the tweaks that will take their roster to yet another level. The initial expectation is that the Los Angeles organization will open trade talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, unnamed sources tell Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter).
On the one hand, it’s hardly surprising to hear that the L.A. franchise has its eyes on Lindor, one of the game’s very best young players. On the other, it’s worth taking this report with a heavy dose of salt. It isn’t entirely clear from Morosi’s phrasing whether Dodgers executives have already crafted a clear plan to go after Lindor.
Even if the Dodgers are a contender for Lindor, there are plenty of obstacles to completing a swap. We’ve already seen a hint of the involvement of another coastal behemoth and numerous other clubs would surely want a crack at the superstar. The bidding would surely be intense.
And it’s not even clear just yet whether the Indians wish to take this course with their franchise centerpiece. While the Cleveland org would surely base its decision upon actual trade offers, it’ll hesitate even to launch earnest discussions — and thereby kickstart a rumor mill that would loom large over the offseason — unless it believes that the end result will be a swap.
The Dodgers aren’t exactly hurting for talent on the left side of the infield. Corey Seager wasn’t dominant in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but was still quite productive and remains a high-end young talent. Justin Turner‘s glove may be slowing but his bat is just about as vicious as ever. And one of the game’s best prospects, Gavin Lux, has spent most of his professional time at shortstop (though the Dodgers utilized him at second in his debut year).
While it’d be hard to label shortstop as a need, it doesn’t take a ton of imagination to appreciate the concept of adding a mid-prime Lindor to the mix. It probably works even without a trade. Seager could shift over to third, with Turner spending more of his time at first base. Lux and Max Muncy would be the other key parts of the mix on the right side of the diamond, with Cody Bellinger spending most of his time in center field. The offensive upside of such an infield unit would be enormous.
Of course, it’s quite possible that there’d be some other changes to the L.A. roster mix, possibly even in a hypothetical swap to land Lindor. The Indians will not likely be focused on far-away talent in negotiations. Bringing aboard the exceptional talent will unquestionably require a major haul in return. Lindor, who’s closing in on his 26th birthday, is a high-grade defender and well-above-average offensive player. He’s projected to earn $16.7MM in arbitration — a big number but still well shy of his single-season open-market value. With one more arb year to go, Lindor has plenty of trade value; it’s also arguably the right time for the Indians to bite the bullet and cash him in.
AL Notes: Lindor, Oakland Stadium, Cash, Boone
In a lengthy piece for The Athletic, Zack Meisel charts the different courses the Indians could take with regard to the contract status of star shortstop Francisco Lindor (link). As Meisel takes pains to point out, Lindor has taken a chilly posture to the idea that he would offer his club a discount in potential extension talks. Besides speaking vocally in support of 2018 free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper securing “every single penny that they can get“, Lindor was blunt in stating during the 2019 preseason that Cleveland would need to pay him full value if the club is interested in preventing him from reaching free agency after the 2021 season. “Who knows?” Lindor replied to a gathering of reporters during Spring Training when asked if a longterm extension would interest him. “Can you afford to pay me? If you pay me, I’ll stay.” Noting that the Indians have never signed a contract north of $60MM (Edwin Encarnacion in 2016), Meisel wonders if the time may be ripe for the club to consider trade options involving the 25-year-old shortstop.
While the writer ultimately seems to lean toward the idea of keeping Lindor, allowing him to play out his last two arb years, and then living with the possibility that he leaves in 2022, it is tantalizing to imagine the interest Lindor’s name could stir up on the trade market. As a mid-20s, up-the-middle player with five consecutive seasons of four-plus fWAR valuations, Lindor remains one of the game’s steadiest producers and most marketable stars.
More notes from around the American League in advance of Game 2 of the World Series…
- In an attempt to rid themselves of the current legal quagmire surrounding their new ballpark project, the Athletics have offered to either buy out the city of Oakland’s half share in the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum site for $85 million or enter into a long-term lease, per Phil Matier of The San Francisco Chronicle (link). The team has offered a “community benefits package” to the city that includes affordable housing provisions and apprenticeship programs, with the expectation that the city drops its lawsuit against Alameda County in return. Alameda County, which holds the other half share of the Oakland Coliseum site, recently offered to sell its own half share to the A’s, but a city-initiated lawsuit has stalled that potential agreement. Work on the new Oakland Ballpark is expected to begin in the city’s Jack London Square area in 2021.
- Rays manager Kevin Cash was honored as one of Sporting News’ several award recipients today, with the outlet naming Cash as American League Manager of the Year (link). Cash was tasked in 2019 with a roster chock-full of trade acquisitions and overlooked players, ultimately leading Tampa to a 96-win season and an ALDS berth. Cash also deserves credit for getting his guys to surmount injury trouble–just two Rays players appeared in over 140 games–although there was another manager in his division who was tasked with some truly Herculean challenges with regard to roster management in 2019. Yankees manager Aaron Boone could be seen as something of a snub for this honor (which is not to be confused with the BBWAA awards that receive far more coverage and recognition) after his Bombers sent an MLB-record 30 players to the injured list en route to an AL East title in 2019.
Yankees Notes: Lindor, Shortstop, Cole
Many will categorize 2019 as a failure for the 103-win Yankees. For the most storied franchise in the game, anything less than a World Series victory is sufficient cause for handwringing. Chalk up 2019 as a close-but-no-cigar season – just a few outs here or there and the Yankees could be readying to take on the Nationals instead of watching from home. In a game with only one ultimate winner, however, 2019 goes down as a failed season even if, objectively, the Bronx provided some of the most potent, resilient, and thrilling baseball of the year. Moving forward, they have one of the strongest talent cores in baseball. And yet, in an era that includes a dynastic force like the Astros, savvy, irrepressible units in Oakland and Tampa Bay, and bounce-back potential in Boston, the Yankees owe their due diligence to improving the roster wherever possible. Starting pitching may be New York’s advertised soft spot, but they should target Francisco Lindor first and foremost, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Defense, baserunning, and an opportunity for diversified offense make Lindor a perfect fit on a roster of sluggers (though a player of Lindor’s caliber is a perfect fit on every roster). Let’s check in on what else is being said about the Bombers this morning…
- ESPN’s Buster Olney also targets shortstop as a position of reflection for the Yankees, though he emphasizes settling on a bellcow more than finding a significant upgrade. Didi Gregorius is a free agent likely facing a qualifying offer decision, and Gleyber Torres remains on-hand as the future somewhere up the middle. Given the keys to the car, Olney would also seek more production from the Yankee starting staff and left-handed hitting to balance the right-heavy group of savages already on-hand in the Bronx.
- After not making the World Series for the entirety of the 2010’s, there may in fact be some urgency to New York’s offseason, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Gerrit Cole is the obvious answer, but there are legitimate questions as to whether the Yankees will shell out top dollar for a pitcher for the first time since Masahiro Tanaka prior to 2014. It’s also not entirely clear if Cole, a California native, has any interest in pitching for New York. Brian Cashman hasn’t been willing to move his line when it comes to free agents of late, with Patrick Corbin‘s desire for a sixth contract year the most recent example, and it’s hard to argue with New York’s methods considering their recent success. On the other hand, Corbin will be playing in the World Series this week and the Yankees, of course, will not.