Reds Reportedly Exploring Francisco Lindor Trade Scenarios
The Reds have “engage[d]” with the Indians in talks regarding shortstop Francisco Lindor, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). There’s no indication to this point that the discussions are anything but exploratory in nature.
We’ve heard ongoing chatter regarding the Cleveland superstar. Lindor, who recently turned 26, is entering his second-to-last season of arbitration control and projects to earn $16.7MM. Having recently shipped out high-dollar hurlers Trevor Bauer (over the summer, to Cincinnati) and Corey Kluber (more recently, to the Rangers), the Indians are seemingly willing to listen on Lindor. But indication is that the club isn’t especially anxious to deal him.
While it’s still unclear whether there’s any significant likelihood of a swap coming together, it’s interesting to hear of ongoing talks from multiple quarters. The Padres and Dodgers are among the other organizations tied recently to Lindor, though in all cases we’ve yet to hear of anything approaching a concerted effort to pry loose the star shortstop.
No doubt it’d take a massive array of talent to coax the Indians into moving Lindor. Though it’s now quite difficult to imagine he will be retained for the long haul with an extension, he’s also still a reasonably priced young star on a team that is still in an open competitive window. The Indians can plausibly hope to cover the outgoing pitching from within, though they undoubtedly sacrificed quite a lot of near-term upside in the form of Bauer and Kluber. But there’s really no replacing Lindor.
Whether there’s a path to a deal remains to be seen, but the involvement of the Reds could help spur movement on the market. It is especially notable that the Cincinnati organization has recently hammered out complicated, multi-player deals with the Indians — as well as the Padres and the Dodgers, who could consider moving Corey Seager as part of or in a follow-up to a Lindor acquisition. Hypothetical possibilities abound. At minimum, the report makes clear that the Reds are still scanning the market in search of major improvements.
Trade Rumblings: Lindor, Padres, Dodgers, Betts, Yanks, Schwarber
The Padres have at least kicked around the idea of attempting to swing a deal for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). However, Rosenthal cautions that the superstar probably won’t end up in San Diego, which already has an enviable left side of the infield between shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado. In the unlikely event the Padres do wind up with Lindor, it seems they’d try to turn Tatis into a multi-position player (primarily a center fielder), though Rosenthal notes doing so could displease the 20-year-old and would likely receive pushback from his representatives. That’s important considering San Diego’s desire to extend the phenom.
On the plus side, in addition to picking up an elite player in Lindor, the Padres would keep him away from the division-rival Dodgers, who have been connected to him this winter. But the Lindor-related talks between LA and Cleveland have only been “preliminary” to this point, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription). The Indians, for their part, aren’t necessarily under pressure to trade Lindor right now – he still has two years’ control left and remains the best player on a team that has been a consistent playoff contender in recent seasons. That said, the Indians don’t appear to have much of a chance to extend Lindor, so perhaps they’ll be open to parting with him this winter.
Let’s check in on a couple more of baseball’s highest-profile trade candidates…
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that the Red Sox and Dodgers have had “exploratory trade talks” in regards to Boston outfielder Mookie Betts. The Dodgers have even included shortstop Corey Seager in discussions centering on Lindor and Betts, Nightengale relays. However, even though Betts only has a year of control left (in which he should make almost $30MM via arbitration), and even though the Red Sox are working to get under the $208MM luxury tax, it doesn’t look as if there’s any hurry to part with the former AL MVP. Instead, it seems the Red Sox’s preference is to trade from their starting staff, tweets the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who hears that they and the Dodgers “had virtually no engagement” in regards to Betts at last week’s Winter Meetings.
- More from Rosenthal, who writes that the Yankees’ years-long interest in Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber has continued. Nevertheless, there’s no momentum toward a deal as of now, Rosenthal adds. Schwarber has been a favorite of the Cubs’ front office, though trading him could be part of an offseason shakeup for a club that fell apart late in 2019. The 26-year-old slugger still has two seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, and he’s coming off a pair of above-average campaigns, so he’d likely be difficult for the Yankees or anyone else to acquire.
Dodgers “Pessimistic” On Rendon, Still Talking Lindor With Indians
2:31pm: While the likelihood of an arrangement isn’t known, the Dodgers are engaged in “serious” and ongoing talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The report suggests that the Cleveland organization wants a prospect package that includes top talents Gavin Lux and Dustin May, each of whom reached the majors late last year. Whether the demand is for both to be included isn’t entirely clear.
2:00pm: The Dodgers are increasingly “pessimistic” as to their chances of striking a deal with top remaining free agent Anthony Rendon, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The L.A. org just missed out on Gerrit Cole and could now see its other major target slip away.
What’s the mean for the market on Rendon? Rosenthal reiterates several other recent reports indicating that the Nationals are unlikely to bring back their star third bagger. The Rangers and Angels appear to be the leading contenders to secure the services of the smooth-swinging 29-year-old.
As for the Dodgers, if indeed they fall out of the Rendon bidding they’ll presumably keep moving down the line of options. The club is said to have interest in Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner, and several other possible free agent and trade targets.
Indians Disinclined To Deal Francisco Lindor
The Indians “prefer not to deal” star shortstop Francisco Lindor this winter, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Though his name his been through several rounds of the rumor mill, it seems the 26-year-old will remain in Cleveland — at least for the time being.
This report matches up with other recent chatter surrounding Lindor, who was said to be carrying a massive price tag on the market. Understandably, the Indians aren’t willing to make a deal that delivers anything less than a bonanza back.
It has been fair to wonder whether the Indians would put real effort into structuring a deal involving Lindor. The club wasn’t able to gain traction in prior extension talks. He’s now projected to earn $16.7MM entering his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. That’s a pittance for his production, but with Lindor closing in on the open market it seemed the small-market organization was positioned to listen to offers.
There could still be chatter surrounding Lindor (as well as some other huge names) over the coming days, weeks, and months. But if the Indians are indeed disinclined to make a deal, it’ll be incumbent upon other organizations to come forward with offers strong enough to spur interest on the part of an otherwise unwilling Cleveland organization.
Of course, even if Lindor stays put for the rest of this winter, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll make it to free agency in an Indians uniform. Future circumstances will dictate the course of events, but Lindor would surely feature as a trade candidate next winter — if not sooner.
Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays
There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.
Here’s more from other areas of the market:
- Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
- The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
- We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
- The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.
AL Notes: Lindor, Wheeler, Yanks, Twins
Let’s take a quick look around the American League…
- Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor is a prominent trade candidate, at least speculatively. However, as you’d expect, it’s going to be extremely difficult to pry the superstar out of Cleveland. The Indians would have to be “overwhelmed” by an offer in order to part with the 26-year-old four-time All-Star this offseason, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com writes. Lindor has just two years of control left and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension, meaning there’s a case the Indians should strongly consider trading him before next season. However, the perennial contenders apparently want to see how they fare coming out of the gate next season before deciding Lindor’s future, Hoynes suggests. If that’s the case, we may not see a Lindor trade until at least around next July’s trade deadline.
- Right-hander Zack Wheeler has become popular on the open market, but it doesn’t appear the longtime Met will be sticking in New York. Although the Yankees have shown interest in the hard-throwing Wheeler, they seemingly aren’t willing to hand him a nine-figure contract, Andy Martino of SNY tweets. Signs are pointing to the 29-year-old Wheeler landing a contract worth at least $100MM, so if the Yankees don’t want to go there, they’ll likely have to look elsewhere for starting help.
- Righty Matt Wisler, whom the Twins claimed off waivers from the Mariners in October, will make just over $700K in 2020, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. That looks like a rather team-friendly amount for the out-of-options Wisler, who had been projected to earn $1MM next season. The 27-year-old Wisler, a former top prospect, divided last season between Seattle and San Diego and logged a 5.61 ERA/4.23 FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates of 11.05 and 2.81 across 51 1/3 innings.
Central Notes: Lindor, Tigers, Cards, Pirates
We may be in for weeks of speculation centering on Indians superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, who’s a potential trade candidate because he’s running out of team control and unlikely to sign an extension. For instance, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com runs down reasons to trade Lindor now that he’s down to his second-last year of arbitration eligibility, while Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com names potential in-house replacements for the long haul should the Indians deal the 26-year-old. The team is indeed “receiving a lot of trade calls” for Lindor, Jon Heyman of MLB.com tweets. As you’d expect, though, the Indians’ public stance is that Lindor is likely to stay put. “My expectation is Frankie will be the shortstop Opening Day next year,” president Chris Antonetti said.
Here’s more from the game’s Central divisions…
- Tigers general manager Al Avila said this week that a “bat” – likely either an outfielder or a first baseman – as well as a backup catcher are on his shopping list, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com relays. It doesn’t seem that the Tigers will be adding a shortstop from outside, though. Rather, it looks as if utilityman Niko Goodrum is the favorite to land the job. Avila’s of the belief that young shortstop Willi Castro and catcher Jake Rogers, who made their major league debuts in 2019, need more seasoning at the Triple-A level.
- Various injuries have prevented 25-year-old Cardinals right-hander Alex Reyes from realizing his vast potential, but it appears he’ll enjoy “a normal offseason progression” this winter, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Reyes, once among the game’s elite prospects, had an outstanding debut over 46 innings in 2016. He then missed all of 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, threw 27 innings in 2018 (four in the majors) as a result of surgery to repair a tendon in his lat muscle and totaled just 40 1/3 frames this year (three at the MLB level) because of multiple health issues – including a strained pectoral.
- Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez underwent left foot surgery Wednesday and won’t resume baseball activities for 10 to 12 weeks, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets. It’s the second time Gonzalez has undergone surgery as a Pirate. The offseason acquisition from last winter underwent a procedure in April to repair a fractured left clavicle, which was one of multiple injuries that helped sideline him for the majority of the 2019 campaign. The 28-year-old posted woeful production over the 156 plate appearances he amassed, as he hit .254/.301/.317 with only one home run. He’s projected to earn $800K via arbitration in 2020.
AL Notes: Rays, d’Arnaud, Lindor, Bloom
To kick things off this Sunday morning, we’ll round up a few odds and ends from the American League.
- The Rays will look to address their offense this offseason, says GM Erik Neander (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Specifically, Neander singled out catcher as an area the front office will need to address. Travis d’Arnaud was quite effective in Tampa after being acquired in a minor trade with the Dodgers, but he’s now a free agent. The Rays could explore a reunion with d’Arnaud, Topkin adds, although his strong season positions him well among the second tier of catchers on the open market. (MLBTR forecasts a two year, $14MM deal for the veteran backstop). Mike Zunino remains under team control, but his $4.9MM arbitration projection makes for a tough call for an organization with ever-looming payroll limitations.
- Speaking of low-revenue clubs, when is the appropriate time for the Indians to market Francisco Lindor? That question is explored by ESPN’s Buster Olney, who argues that a Lindor trade is a question of ‘when,’ not ‘if.’ Lindor is unquestionably one of the game’s best talents and its most marketable personalities, but there’s no indication Cleveland believes they’ll keep him in the fold long-term. Lindor will take home hefty arbitration sums each of the next two years; MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects a $16.7MM award this offseason, with another raise after next year almost certainly to follow. As Olney notes, the Orioles were underwhelmed with the offers they received on their superstar infielder, Manny Machado, when they shopped him in the 2017-18 offseason with one season remaining of team control. Perhaps Cleveland would be better suited to jump the market and trade Lindor while he still has two seasons before reaching free agency, although doing so would obviously be a massive blow to the team’s chances of contending in 2020.
- Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom joined WEEI’s Rob Bradford on the latest episode of the Bradfo Sho podcast. Bloom explained that he’s making progress in getting up to date on the Red Sox’s systems and getting to know key people in the organization, including Mookie Betts, who figures to dominate the rumors circuit until Boston makes a decision on his future. Bloom also addressed the difficulty for front office members in trading away players to whom they’ve developed personal connections, J.D. Martinez’s decision to opt-in to his contract, and the payroll discrepancy between his former employer, the Rays, and the Red Sox in a wide-ranging conversation.
NL Notes: Cubs, Epstein, Cardinals, Lindor, Padres
For those looking for an indication of the Cubs‘ offseason spending strategy, this week’s comments from president Theo Epstein provided little satisfaction–even if Epstein has previously shown a willingness to lift the curtain on club plans. “As an organization, we’re not talking about payroll or luxury tax at all,” Epstein is quoted as saying in an article from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. “I feel like every time we’ve been at all specific, or even allowed people to make inferences from things we’ve said, it just puts us in a hole strategically.”
While North Side fans would likely love for the club to pursue upper-echelon free agents like Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon, Bastian calculates that such a development is unlikely given the club’s current payroll commitments. Chicago is accountable for roughly $107MM toward eight contracts next season, before providing for team options on Anthony Rizzo ($16.5MM) and Jose Quintana ($10.5MM). The Cubs opened 2019 with a payroll in excess of $203MM, before finishing with a disappointing 84-78 record and missing the playoffs.
In more news from around the NL…
- After the Dodgers were connected to Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor this week, is it possible the Cardinals could also take a run at Cleveland’s superstar infielder? That’s a question pondered by Mark Saxon in a reader mailbag for The Athletic–with Saxon venturing that such a pursuit could be manageable for St. Louis (link). While it’s important to underline that this is only the speculation of one writer, Saxon draws up a potential trade package headlined by prospect Nolan Gorman and one of Paul DeJong, Tommy Edman, or Kolten Wong. While such a hypothetical package has its merits (and it’s laudable for a writer to go out on a limb regarding trade scenarios), it is worth pointing out that Gorman, at 19, is likely two years away from being considered an MLB-ready contributor. MLBTR readers, of course, took their own crack at projecting Lindor’s future in a recent poll.
- After a 2019 season that saw the Padres use eight different rookie pitchers in their starting rotation, writer AJ Cassavell of MLB.com notes that–strange though it may sound–the club is likely more focused on offense heading into the offseason (link). As Cassavell notes, pitching prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino promise to aid a 2020 rotation mix that includes Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, Dinelson Lamet, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, and Cal Quantrill, whereas the projected lineup of new manager Jayce Tingler provides a few more question marks. The veteran scribe underscores that, by virtue of wRC+, San Diego received worse-than-average production at every position save for shortstop in 2019. Although Cassavell offers second base, catcher, and outfield as areas in need of an upgrade, it might be added that San Diego ran out well-regarded rookies at those spots for much of 2019 in Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, and Josh Naylor. It stands to reason that the club could simply look for sophomore improvements at those particular positions while moving to offset Eric Hosmer‘s tremendous struggles against left-handed pitching (59 wRC+ against lefties in 2019) by way of a first base platoon addition.
MLBTR Poll: Francisco Lindor’s Future
We may be in for at least a couple of months of rumors centering on superstar Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, who came up in trade speculation earlier Monday. The Dodgers are reportedly set to explore taking an offseason run at Lindor, already a four-time All-Star who won’t turn 26 until next month. Los Angeles is likely part of a large group of teams with interest in Lindor, as he’s clearly an elite, in-his-prime player who holds down one of baseball’s most valuable positions with aplomb.
In Cleveland’s shoes, it’s hardly a slam dunk the team will market Lindor. Since Lindor debuted in 2015, the Indians have come within striking distance of a World Series title, they’ve won three division championships and haven’t finished below .500. Even this season, which was a disappointment and non-playoff campaign for the club, it still won 93 games. Lindor was no small part of the Indians’ latest respectable performance, as he accounted for 4.4 fWAR, 34 home runs and 22 stolen bases despite missing the first couple weeks of the season with calf and ankle injuries. Factoring in his most recent output, the switch-hitting Lindor is tied with the venerable Jose Altuve for sixth among position players in fWAR (27.2).
Thanks to Lindor’s career-long brilliance, he’s set to earn a somewhat lofty salary in 2020 – his penultimate year of arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Lindor will rake in $16.7MM, which obviously isn’t the type of salary just any team could absorb. However, Lindor is spectacular enough to make it worthwhile, and with the possible exception of Didi Gregorius, the upcoming class of free-agent shortstops offers little in the way of answers. With that in mind, the Indians probably wouldn’t have difficulty landing appealing offers for Lindor.
Of course, whether the Indians are willing to seriously consider moving Lindor (or someone like right-hander Corey Kluber, another speculative trade candidate) is in question. There still appears to be enough talent on hand for the team to push for a playoff berth next season, after all. The Indians could easily retain Lindor and attempt to make another run at a World Series in 2020, or they could at least keep him until the July trade deadline and see where they stand at that point. That said, the trade value of Lindor is surely high now, and the small-market Indians appear highly unlikely to extend him before he’s eligible to reach free agency. Perhaps the upcoming winter is the right time to aggressively market Lindor, then. How do you expect it to pan out?
(Poll link for app users)
Will the Indians trade Lindor this offseason?
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Yes 52% (4,961)
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No 48% (4,600)
Total votes: 9,561