Indians’ Francona: “Lindor Not On Trading Block”
Indians’ manager Terry Francona spoke clearly and confidently during an appearance on MLB Network Radio’s Remember When (audio link). According to Francona, Francisco Lindor is not on the trading block.
“I can guarantee you we’re not trying to trade Lindor. We have him for two more years. Keeping him is everybody’s goal. Also know that keeping him and fielding a competitive team is a challenge in our market. There’s no getting around that. It’s not gonna be easy. I think that’s as honest as you can be.”
This jibes more-or-less with what we’ve been hearing out of Cleveland for most of the offseason. Still, Francona lends the message a certain gravitas. If the tone was more forceful, the content doesn’t differ all that significantly from the the equivocating trafficked by front offices. The Indians, like many teams, are in a position of financial maneuvering. The payroll limits imposed by ownership charge the baseball ops department to act creatively and consider options at which they’d otherwise scoff.
Doom and gloom aside, the Indians aren’t devoid of talent. Despite missing the playoffs in 2019 to a Twins team that’s continued their full court press this winter, the Indians are coming off their fourth consecutive 90-win season. They won just one less game in 2020 than in 2016, the year they won the pennant.
Indians Avoid Arbitration With Francisco Lindor, Mike Clevinger
4:23pm: Mike Clevinger also has a deal with the Cleveland org, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a $4.1MM deal, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal (Twitter link).
Clevinger had projected for $400K more than the settlement point. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz explained, there was a good argument for him to reach his $4.5MM projection. But the Indians were able to hold Clevinger to just under the amount secured by Kyle Hendricks in 2018.
1:48pm: The Indians have avoided arbitration with shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll reportedly earn $17.5MM in a deal that also includes some award incentives.
The arbitration model of MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected a $16.7MM salary for the still-youthful star. But it was an especially difficult number to gauge, as Matt explained in his recent look at Lindor’s arb case.
Interestingly, Matt had anticipated that his projection was a bit high. It turned out to be low. As he noted in that post, the difficulty was in sorting out how to handle the positional adjustment for Lindor. While recent raises for lumbering sluggers might have operated as caps for Lindor’s earnings, he obviously could and would have argued that his defensive proficiency should be weighed on the scale. The team obviously agreed — or, at least, felt there was a legitimate chance that an arbitrator would be swayed by such evidence.
This now makes for an important market marker to bear in mind in the future. Of course, it’s likelier to act as a ceiling unless a truly exceptional player comes along. Lindor, who just turned 26, swatted 32 home runs and slashed .284/.335/.518 in 654 plate appearances in 2019.
Antonetti Again Downplays Possibility Of Lindor Trade
Francisco Lindor sat atop the wishlist of many fans and front offices alike throughout the holiday season, as teams ranging from the Dodgers to the Reds to the Mets were all repeatedly reported to have interest in Lindor. However, Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti has stated in the past that he expects Lindor to be his Opening Day shortstop, and he was emphatic in reiterating that belief in a conference call with reporters Wednesday afternoon (audio link).
“Yes, I still have every expectation that Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day,” Antonetti said when asked about the persistent trade rumors surrounding Lindor. “I’m more confident today in saying that, as more of the offseason has passed, but that’s still our expectation. I’ve tried to be pretty consistent with this. I have never had a different expectation other than Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day.”
Despite Antonetti’s public, straightforward stance, there’s nevertheless been plenty of reporting on clubs with interest and speculation on trade packages that could appeal to the Indians. Names like Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Nick Senzel and Jeff McNeil have been kicked about the rumor mill in various writings on Lindor, but Antonetti strongly suggested that he’s not the one initiating any talks on Lindor.
“I can’t control the conduct of other teams and them calling us with interest and wanting to explore things,” Antonetti continued. “As I’ve shared with you, we have a responsibility to be responsive to those teams when they engage with us. I can say that we’ve had conversations on the majority of our Major League roster and a bunch of players in our minor league system over the course of the offseason. The majority of those guys, with the exception of just a couple, are still with us.”
The Indians, of course, pulled the trigger on a Corey Kluber trade last month and have been widely reported to be aiming to scale back their payroll after reaching record levels on the heels of their 2016 World Series run. But Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll is projected to check in shy of $100MM — shy of $95MM if Jason Kipnis‘ buyout is counted against last year’s budget — placing them well south of their Opening Day marks in 2019 ($119MM), 2018 ($135MM) and 2017 ($124MM). As such, it’s unlikely that there’s any financial pressure to move Lindor and his projected $16.7MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).
Moreover, despite their trade of Kluber, the Indians aren’t embarking on any kind of rebuilding effort heading into 2020. They’re still intent on contending with the reigning AL Central champion Twins and the vastly improved White Sox as they look to take advantage of another year in which at least 40 percent of the division is rebuilding. Trading Lindor, even for a package of appealing MLB-ready talent, harms their chances of doing so.
It’s surely a frustrating carousel for Antonetti, as rumors of interest in Lindor won’t cease until Opening Day — and that will only bring a temporary reprieve. Even if Lindor remains with the club, he’ll surely be at least mentioned leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, even if the Indians are in the thick of the division race as most expect them to be. Reports of teams showing interest in Lindor and working to pry him from Cleveland’s grasp will persist, but Antonetti’s latest comments serve as yet another reminder that an actual trade involving the 26-year-old four-time All-Star isn’t especially likely.
Arbitration Breakdown: Francisco Lindor
Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.
Francisco Lindor enters his second year of arbitration eligibility coming off a $10.55MM salary in 2019, yet another solid campaign. Lindor hit .284 with 32 home runs and 74 runs batted in, stole 22 bases, and accumulated 654 plate appearances on the way to his fourth straight All-Star appearance and his second Gold Glove. My model projects Lindor earn $16.7MM, good for a $6.15MM raise.
It is very difficult to find comparable players for the talented shortstop. Looking for middle infielders from the past half-decade who hit 25 home runs going into their second year of eligibility provides only two names. Both players are second basemen and have much weaker cases than Lindor. In 2017, Jonathan Schoop batted .293 with 32 home runs and 105 runs batted in, stealing just a single base. The same year, Scooter Gennett hit .295 with 27 homers, 97 runs batted in and just three stolen bases. They got raises of $5.0 and $3.2 million, respectively. Considering Lindor stole way more stolen bases and plays a more premium position, he clearly has a better case. He should earn north of the $5MM raise that Schoop received three years ago.
Looking for a shortstop is clearly not a fruitful endeavor, though. The largest ever raise for a second-time-eligible shortstop was $2.83MM for Brandon Crawford in 2016. But he only hit .256, belted just 21 home runs, and stole a mere six bases. His case then was clearly inferior to Lindor’s now.
If we expand to look at other positions beyond the middle infield, some other potential names emerge. George Springer got a two-year deal when he had a similar .283/34/85 performance two seasons ago—although only with five stolen bases—but he had filed for a $6.6MM raise, while the Astros offered a $4.6MM increase. His two-year agreement probably assumes the midpoint. If nothing else, the $4.6MM figure is a floor if Schoop’s $5 million was not.
Justifying the model’s estimate of a $6.15MM raise is harder. But some of the players who have landed raises in that neighborhood had stronger performances. Khris Davis got a $5.5MM raise two years ago after belting 43 home runs and knocking in 110 runs. Davis hit at his standard .247 clip, but his power numbers may make him a ceiling for Lindor. Of course, the positional adjustment is hard. Marcell Ozuna picked up a $5.5MM raise in 2018, too, after he hit .312/37/124 as an outfielder. Still, one could argue that Lindor’s .284/32/74 line is inferior.
I think that somewhere between $5MM and $5.5MM is a reasonable guess for Lindor, which would put him around $15.5MM to $16MM. The model is clearly struggling to find where Lindor’s salary as is, just like we have done in this article, but I do think it landed high.
Latest On Dodgers’ Interest In Mookie Betts
The Dodgers have been linked to several superstar players in both free agency and potential trades this winter, though with so many of the big free agents already signed elsewhere, the trade market might be Los Angeles’ best avenue to land a major roster upgrade. To this end, the Dodgers have continued to explore the possibility of acquiring Mookie Betts from the Red Sox, according to MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi.
The deal could potentially be expanded to involve multiple players heading from Boston to Chavez Ravine, as Morosi suggests that David Price might be a fit as the veteran arm the Dodgers are looking to add to their rotation. With the Red Sox looking to cut payroll and ideally get under the luxury tax threshold, rumors have swirled all winter about Price, Betts, and other high-priced Boston names being floated as trade chips. Betts is projected for a hefty $27.7MM salary in his final year of arbitration, though that’s certainly a reasonable price to pay (especially for a big-market team like the Dodgers) for one of the sport’s very best players.
As game-changing as the idea of a Betts trade may be, the Sox aren’t actively trying to deal him, since the club would naturally prefer to explore other cost-saving options before parting ways with the 2018 AL MVP. Moving Price and the $96MM owed to the southpaw through 2022 would be one of those preferred options. While the Sox have drummed up some trade interest in Price, however, it still seems unlikely that a suitor would take on most of that contract given Price’s age (34) and recent injury concerns.
Moving Betts along with Price would definitely make a trade suitors more willing to absorb perhaps even all of Price’s contract, though obviously the Red Sox aren’t willing to move Betts just for the sake of a salary dump. Indeed, Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom recently downplayed the idea of giving away any sort of younger talent along with Price, saying “so much of what we’re always going to be trying to accomplish, but certainly now, is to make sure we have as strong a farm system as possible.”
Morosi opines that the Red Sox would want one of the Dodgers’ top young pitchers (i.e. Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin) as part of a trade, though “Boston appears less insistent on” including infielder Gavin Lux as part of a trade package. It could be for this reason that L.A. is perhaps currently more focused on Betts than on Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, another All-Star who has been heavily rumored to be on the Dodgers’ list of targets. The Lindor talks appear to be in something of a stalemate — Cleveland has continued to demand Lux in any deal for Lindor, while the Dodgers think so highly of Lux’s potential that they “have refused to include him in any offer for Lindor alone.” The Dodgers are also known to be pursuing Cleveland righty Mike Clevinger, so it’s safe to assume that some multi-player offers have been floated in the Tribe’s direction.
Mike Clevinger Drawing Trade Interest
TODAY: The Dodgers continue to be “very aggressive in pursuit of” Clevinger and Lindor, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.
DEC. 19: Indians righty Mike Clevinger is drawing trade interest, per Robert Murray (Twitter link), although the team is said to have put a “crazy high” asking price on the soon-to-be 29-year-old. The Padres and Dodgers are among the clubs to have at least inquired on Clevinger, although there are quite likely others, given the sizable demand for starting pitching, the dwindling supply in free agency and Cleveland’s recent trade of Corey Kluber.
Interest in Clevinger isn’t much of a surprise. He enters his age-29 season with three years of club control remaining and a sterling 2.96 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate over the past three seasons (477 2/3 innings in total). Clevinger missed about two months with a teres major strain last year but otherwise hasn’t had a notable injury since undergoing Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.
The Indians’ front office is widely believed to be working with a slimmer budget this season than in recent years, as ownership has opted to scale back spending after reaching record payroll levels in 2017-18. That payroll preference was perhaps the primary reason that Kluber was moved — as opposed to holding onto him in hopes of receiving a better offer this summer — and it’s part of the reason that the club will at least listen to proposals on players like Clevinger and superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. But president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have repeatedly stated that they expect Lindor to be their Opening Day shortstop; Antonetti reiterated as much in an appearance on MLB Network this week (video link). And while there’s been no declaration on Clevinger’s status, he’s likely viewed as a similarly vital piece of the team’s core.
Clevinger is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM in his first trip through the arbitration process this winter, so he’s nowhere near as pricey as Kluber ($17.5MM) or Lindor ($16.7MM projected salary). And, because he’s controlled for three more years and his salary isn’t yet prohibitive (relative to Paul Dolan’s apparent spending preferences), one can imagine that it would indeed take a staggering offer to pry Clevinger from the organization’s grasp.
Elite prospects like Gavin Lux and Dustin May have been frequently mentioned in trade rumblings surrounding the Dodgers and Lindor, and it stands to reason that the Indians would have a similarly high ask to consider parting ways with Clevinger. While he may not match Lindor in pure 2020 value, he’s about 25 percent as expensive and can be controlled a year longer than Lindor. Essentially, fans hoping to see their club secure a talent the caliber of Clevinger or Lindor should make a list of the young, controllable players with whom they’d be most reluctant to part … and then expect that at least one and more likely two of said group would be at center of such a deal (in addition to some lesser prospects).
Latest On Francisco Lindor
11:54pm: Jeff McNeil, the Mets’ terrific infielder/outfielder, is someone the Indians “repeatedly” asked about during the teams’ Lindor talks, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. Unsurprisingly, though, the Mets weren’t willing to deal McNeil.
10:16pm: It might not be long before we see the Indians part with their franchise player, shortstop Francisco Lindor. The Indians have informed clubs that have pursued Lindor that they want their “best and final offers so they can make an assessment over the weekend,” Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link).
The Indians don’t have to give up the 26-year-old Lindor, who has two seasons’ control left, but his value’s surely sky-high right now. Plus, having traded right-hander and fellow franchise icon Corey Kluber to Texas last week, the small-market Indians could be moving toward a rebuild. The Indians’ roster still looks better than average even without Kluber, but considering they’re unlikely to extend Lindor before he’s slated to reach free agency in a couple years, management may decide to take the best possible offer now at the expense of their near-term chances.
So far this offseason, the Dodgers, Padres and Reds have been prominently connected to Lindor in the rumor mill. The Mets also showed interest in him, but they’ve drifted into the background because of Cleveland’s exorbitant asking price for Lindor, Rosenthal reports. Even though Lindor’s team control is fading and he’ll make a projected $16.7MM in 2020, it’s understandable the Indians are demanding a significant return for him. After all, he’s a four-time All-Star, one of the faces of baseball and someone who has slashed .288/.347/.493 with 130 home runs, 93 stolen bases and 27.2 fWAR since his career began in 2015.
Reds Reportedly Exploring Francisco Lindor Trade Scenarios
The Reds have “engage[d]” with the Indians in talks regarding shortstop Francisco Lindor, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). There’s no indication to this point that the discussions are anything but exploratory in nature.
We’ve heard ongoing chatter regarding the Cleveland superstar. Lindor, who recently turned 26, is entering his second-to-last season of arbitration control and projects to earn $16.7MM. Having recently shipped out high-dollar hurlers Trevor Bauer (over the summer, to Cincinnati) and Corey Kluber (more recently, to the Rangers), the Indians are seemingly willing to listen on Lindor. But indication is that the club isn’t especially anxious to deal him.
While it’s still unclear whether there’s any significant likelihood of a swap coming together, it’s interesting to hear of ongoing talks from multiple quarters. The Padres and Dodgers are among the other organizations tied recently to Lindor, though in all cases we’ve yet to hear of anything approaching a concerted effort to pry loose the star shortstop.
No doubt it’d take a massive array of talent to coax the Indians into moving Lindor. Though it’s now quite difficult to imagine he will be retained for the long haul with an extension, he’s also still a reasonably priced young star on a team that is still in an open competitive window. The Indians can plausibly hope to cover the outgoing pitching from within, though they undoubtedly sacrificed quite a lot of near-term upside in the form of Bauer and Kluber. But there’s really no replacing Lindor.
Whether there’s a path to a deal remains to be seen, but the involvement of the Reds could help spur movement on the market. It is especially notable that the Cincinnati organization has recently hammered out complicated, multi-player deals with the Indians — as well as the Padres and the Dodgers, who could consider moving Corey Seager as part of or in a follow-up to a Lindor acquisition. Hypothetical possibilities abound. At minimum, the report makes clear that the Reds are still scanning the market in search of major improvements.
Trade Rumblings: Lindor, Padres, Dodgers, Betts, Yanks, Schwarber
The Padres have at least kicked around the idea of attempting to swing a deal for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). However, Rosenthal cautions that the superstar probably won’t end up in San Diego, which already has an enviable left side of the infield between shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado. In the unlikely event the Padres do wind up with Lindor, it seems they’d try to turn Tatis into a multi-position player (primarily a center fielder), though Rosenthal notes doing so could displease the 20-year-old and would likely receive pushback from his representatives. That’s important considering San Diego’s desire to extend the phenom.
On the plus side, in addition to picking up an elite player in Lindor, the Padres would keep him away from the division-rival Dodgers, who have been connected to him this winter. But the Lindor-related talks between LA and Cleveland have only been “preliminary” to this point, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription). The Indians, for their part, aren’t necessarily under pressure to trade Lindor right now – he still has two years’ control left and remains the best player on a team that has been a consistent playoff contender in recent seasons. That said, the Indians don’t appear to have much of a chance to extend Lindor, so perhaps they’ll be open to parting with him this winter.
Let’s check in on a couple more of baseball’s highest-profile trade candidates…
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that the Red Sox and Dodgers have had “exploratory trade talks” in regards to Boston outfielder Mookie Betts. The Dodgers have even included shortstop Corey Seager in discussions centering on Lindor and Betts, Nightengale relays. However, even though Betts only has a year of control left (in which he should make almost $30MM via arbitration), and even though the Red Sox are working to get under the $208MM luxury tax, it doesn’t look as if there’s any hurry to part with the former AL MVP. Instead, it seems the Red Sox’s preference is to trade from their starting staff, tweets the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who hears that they and the Dodgers “had virtually no engagement” in regards to Betts at last week’s Winter Meetings.
- More from Rosenthal, who writes that the Yankees’ years-long interest in Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber has continued. Nevertheless, there’s no momentum toward a deal as of now, Rosenthal adds. Schwarber has been a favorite of the Cubs’ front office, though trading him could be part of an offseason shakeup for a club that fell apart late in 2019. The 26-year-old slugger still has two seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, and he’s coming off a pair of above-average campaigns, so he’d likely be difficult for the Yankees or anyone else to acquire.
Dodgers “Pessimistic” On Rendon, Still Talking Lindor With Indians
2:31pm: While the likelihood of an arrangement isn’t known, the Dodgers are engaged in “serious” and ongoing talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The report suggests that the Cleveland organization wants a prospect package that includes top talents Gavin Lux and Dustin May, each of whom reached the majors late last year. Whether the demand is for both to be included isn’t entirely clear.
2:00pm: The Dodgers are increasingly “pessimistic” as to their chances of striking a deal with top remaining free agent Anthony Rendon, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The L.A. org just missed out on Gerrit Cole and could now see its other major target slip away.
What’s the mean for the market on Rendon? Rosenthal reiterates several other recent reports indicating that the Nationals are unlikely to bring back their star third bagger. The Rangers and Angels appear to be the leading contenders to secure the services of the smooth-swinging 29-year-old.
As for the Dodgers, if indeed they fall out of the Rendon bidding they’ll presumably keep moving down the line of options. The club is said to have interest in Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner, and several other possible free agent and trade targets.