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Latest On The Marlins’ Potential Sale

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Here’s the latest surrounding the potential sale of the Miami Marlins…

  • Derek Jeter and former Florida governor Jeb Bush, who are leading one of the groups bidding for the Marlins, believe the team “has been spreading misinformation including the terms of the bid,” Ken Davidoff and Josh Kosman of the New York Post report.  Jeter and Bush “were exasperated” by apparently inaccurate reports from earlier this week saying they had reached a general agreement to buy the Marlins, as the Jeter/Bush group is still trying to line up investors.  A source tells Davidoff and Kosman that Jeter and Bush may eventually decide to not bid altogether: “These are not guys who can afford a vanity acquisition.  My guess is they will back out,” the source opines.  The Jeter/Bush group has enlisted the help of New York hedge fund financier Anthony Scaramucci as an advisor to bring some new investors into the bid, though Scaramucci himself won’t be joining the ownership group.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post breaks down the economics behind the potential sale, which goes well beyond the $1 billion-plus price tag.  Some in the game say the Marlins are $400MM in debt, and a new ownership faces losses in the range of $150-$200MM over its first few years of operations since the club lags behind in such revenue-generating streams as attendance, sponsorships, and a local TV contract.  “Some creative bookkeeping” will be required to work out the sale price no matter which competing group ends up buying the Marlins, and current owner Jeffrey Loria “will accept the fastest deal that meets his requests and he believes will be approved by the other owners” in order to get out from under this financial burden.
  • Given these costs involved in buying the Marlins, Sherman raises the possibility of another fire sale as a way that a new ownership group could cut costs.  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe also raises the possibility, particularly in regards to trading Giancarlo Stanton.  The slugger is owed $63MM through the 2019 season, and then, if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out clause following that year, a whopping $244MM through the 2027 season.  Even though Miami would surely have to eat some of this contract in a trade, Cafardo still wonders if a deal could be reached given Stanton’s injury history and less-than-elite production in 2016.
  • Also from Cafardo’s piece, he reports that the ownership group led by Tom Glavine and Tagg Romney appears to have all of the investors arranged behind its $1.1 billion bid.  A source tells Cafardo that it doesn’t appear as though as of Glavine and Romney’s investors would leave the bid to join the Jeter/Bush group.
  • Marlins manager Don Mattingly and catcher A.J. Ellis are no strangers to performing under an ownership change, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times writes, as both were with the Dodgers during that team’s perhaps even more tumultuous sale from Frank McCourt to the Guggenheim Baseball ownership group.  “That uncertainty, at this stage, is definitely hanging,” Ellis said.  “There’s so many guys here who have been with the Marlins their whole life. That’s all they’ve ever known. It could be a huge life change for them.”

Marlins Looking To Acquire Starting Pitching

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The Marlins’ main objective is to upgrade their rotation during the offseason, but their limited budget will likely prevent them from chasing either of the best impending free agent starters, Rich Hill or Jeremy Hellickson, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.

The upcoming free agent market is largely devoid of quality starters, which means the Marlins could go the trade route to bolster their rotation. The team doesn’t plan to shop its two best outfielders – Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich – or catcher J.T. Realmuto in an attempt to acquire pitching, though it’s willing to listen to potential offers for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, second baseman Dee Gordon, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and utilityman Derek Dietrich, Jackson reports.

In the wake of former ace Jose Fernandez’s tragic death last month, the Marlins are down to Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen and Tom Koehler as their top starters heading into the winter. That’s an uninspiring trio on paper, but president of baseball operations Michael Hill believes Conley possesses “top of the rotation talent.” Since debuting in 2015, the 26-year-old has posted a 3.82 ERA, 8.22 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9 in 200 1/3 innings. The Marlins are also optimistic about Chen, who was a letdown this season after signing a five-year, $80MM deal with them last winter. Chen recorded the best K-BB percentage of his career (14.6), but he logged a bloated 4.96 ERA – up from a personal-best 3.34 with Baltimore in 2015. The 31-year-old also totaled just 123 1/3 innings because of an elbow injury that kept him out from late July until the end of September.

Three of the Marlins’ four potential trade chips (Ozuna, Hechavarria and Dietrich) are on track to receive raises via arbitration during the winter, while Gordon is controllable through 2021 on the five-year, $50MM extension he signed last January. The speedy Gordon inked that deal off two straight terrific seasons, but his value has since taken hits from an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs and a stark decline in offensive production in the 79 contests he played this year.

Ozuna, who MLBTR projects will net $4.5MM in his first of three potential arbitration trips, was also on the block last offseason. The Mariners, Rangers and Reds were among the teams in on Ozuna, who was coming off a subpar season that included a demotion to Triple-A New Orleans. That 33-game minor league stint drew the ire of both Ozuna and agent Scott Boras, but in spite of the bad blood between them and the Marlins, no trade materialized. Ozuna then slashed .266/.321/.452 with 23 home runs in 608 plate appearances in a bounce-back 2016, which could put the soon-to-be 26-year-old on the radar of outfielder-needy teams. Ozuna has typically fared better in right field than center, where he ranked toward the bottom of the majors in Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating this year.

While Hechavarria has been among the league’s premier defensive shortstops since last season, his below-average offense cratered this year (.238/.283/.311 in 547 PAs) and somewhat cancelled out his fielding prowess. MLBTR’s arbitration forecast for Hechavarria calls for a $3.7MM salary in 2017, which will be his penultimate year of club control. The fact that there are no starting-caliber shortstops set to hit the free agent market could help the Marlins’ cause if they shop him, though it’s certainly poor timing for them that Hechavarria had such a dreadful season at the plate.

Dietrich is in his first of four arbitration years, and he should make in the eminently affordable $1.8MM neighborhood in 2017. The 27-year-old spent time at first, second and third base this season, with the vast majority of his work coming at the keystone as a result of Gordon’s suspension. Dietrich also has experience in left field, but unless the Marlins deal Ozuna or Gordon, playing time could be difficult to come by for him in Miami. In addition to Gordon at second, the Marlins already have Justin Bour and Martin Prado locked in as their starting first and third basemen, thus limiting Dietrich to a bench role if the team’s lineup remains intact. Nevertheless, the Marlins regard Dietrich as someone who’s capable of starting, Jackson writes, and he made his case this season with a .279/.374/.425 line in 412 trips to the plate.

If the Marlins aren’t able to pick up a pair of starting pitchers from outside the organization during the offseason, swingman David Phelps could end up in the rotation next season, Hill told Jackson. Phelps, who was outstanding as both a reliever and starter this year, has made 64 starts with the Yankees and Marlins since cracking the major leagues in 2012. The Marlins also have Justin Nicolino and Jose Urena on hand as somewhat experienced options, but neither has been effective in the big leagues.

NL East Notes: Stanton, d’Arnaud, Mets, Ramos

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Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton may be ready to return to the starting lineup as soon as this Friday, manager Don Mattingly told reporters, including MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, following last night’s win over the Braves. Stanton hit the disabled list with a Grade 3 groin strain that was supposed to effectively end his season in early August, but Miami activated him from the disabled list last week in a surprise move. However, Stanton has been relegated to pinch-hit duties until this point. Frisaro writes that Stanton has been running the bases and performed fielding drills in right field without any signs of discomfort. At 73-73 on the season, the Marlins are currently four games back from an NL Wild Card spot with 16 games remaining on the schedule. Seven of those games will come against the fourth- and fifth-place Phillies and Braves, though, while another three will come against the Mets, who currently lead the Fish in said Wild Card chase.

A bit more from the division…

  • Travis d’Arnaud is beginning to lose his hold on the starting catcher’s job, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. Mets manager Terry Collins called d’Arnaud’s lack of home run pop in 2016 (four homers in 250 plate appearances) “frustrating,” writes Puma, and said he’s had extensive talks with the coaching staff to try to discern what has caused the downturn in d’Arnaud’s productivity, but to no avail. “You play the hot hand,” Collins explained in reference to starting journeyman Rene Rivera over d’Arnaud. “We’re in a situation now where we’ve got to go with, at this time last year or maybe a little earlier, hey look: The guys that are producing runs are the guys who are going to get in there.”
  • Interestingly, Collins is seemingly electing not to apply that same logic in the outfield. The Mets’ skipper stood by the slumping Jay Bruce, writes the Post’s Mike Vaccaro, making a not-so-subtle statement about his confidence (or lack thereof) in current bench options Michael Conforto and Alejandro De Aza in the process. “If I take him out,” Collins said of Bruce, “I’d better be confident that someone can do a better job.” Bruce is hitting .192/.271/.315 since being traded to the Mets and is in the midst of a 3-for-25 skid over the past week (29 plate appearances). The Mets will have a decision to make on Bruce’s $13MM club option for the 2017 campaign, which doesn’t look nearly as palatable as it did at the time of the trade.
  • Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos admits to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post that he became distracted by focusing too much on his impending free agency recently. Ramos, who has been mired in a significant slump (.196/.252/.314 over his past 111 plate appearances), homered last night and tells Castillo that he’s come to the park with a better, more focused approach after a supportive conversation with his wife. The 29-year-old is still hitting .304/.354/.496 even after factoring in a month of poor performance at the dish, making him one of the top free agents on the upcoming market.

Marlins Activate Giancarlo Stanton

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In a surprising turn of events, the Marlins announced that Giancarlo Stanton has been reinstated from the disabled list and activated for tonight’s game against the Phillies. Stanton suffered a Grade 3 groin strain back in mid-August, and it was initially believed that a six-week recovery time was a best case scenario. That would’ve allowed Stanton to return to the Majors, at best, for the final week of the season. However, he’s now set to return to the roster in about half that time.

Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald tweets that for the time being, Stanton will be limited to pinch-hitting duties, though certainly his activation creates some optimism that he could eventually be tabbed for more regular time before season’s end (though Spencer adds that there’s no definitive timeline on Stanton’s return to the lineup).

The 26-year-old Stanton is in the midst of his worst season at the plate, but even a down year for the game’s premier slugger is markedly above-average relative to the rest of the league (121 OPS+, 117 wRC+). At the time he landed on the disabled list, Stanton had a .244/.329/.496 batting line with 25 homers, but he’d been on a blistering hot streak dating back to mid-June. In 48 games leading up to his injury, Stanton had posted an outstanding .299/.361/.582 batting line with 13 homers, raising his OPS 108 points in the process.

Of course, it remains to be seen how Stanton’s groin injury will impact his ability to hit, even in a limited role. His mere presence on the bench, however, will factor into the decision-making process of rival managers, as will the presence of returning first baseman Justin Bour, who was also activated from the DL today. In Stanton and Bour, the Fish will get their two top power threats back into the mix as they look to stay alive in the National League Wild Card race. Miami has dropped a dreadful nine of its past 10 games, falling to five games back of the second Wild Card spot in the Senior Circuit.

Giancarlo Stanton Could Return In Late September

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AUG. 28: Stanton could indeed be back for the last week of the season, per FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, though his recovery would have to go “absolutely perfect” (Twitter link).

AUG. 21: Giancarlo Stanton’s season was thought to be over when news broke of his severe groin strain last week, though the slugger isn’t closing the door on a return.  Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro that Stanton is aiming to play during the last week of the regular season and, as everyone in the organization hopes, the postseason as well.

Stanton suffered a Grade 3 strain, and the Marlins put a six-week timeline on his recovery in a best-case scenario.  That means Stanton is expecting a minimal amount of recovery time in order to return for the Marlins’ last handful of regular season games.  Hill said Stanton’s rehab process is progressing well, though “I don’t think we’ll be able to truly assess where he’s at until he is doing functional, on-field stuff.”

Groin and muscle strains can be difficult injuries to properly gauge, so while Stanton may simply be being optimistic, it could also be possible that his strain (severe as it is) heals quicker than projected and he is able to get back on the field.  It has also been only a week into Stanton’s rehab, of course, so it seems far too soon to tell if the slugger has a realistic chance of playing against in 2016.

The Marlins have been linked to outfielders like Carlos Gomez (who has since joined the Rangers) and Jeff Francoeur in the wake of Stanton’s injury as the Fish look for a platoon partner for Ichiro Suzuki.  The prospect of a final-week return for Stanton probably won’t impact this search, given the uncertainty of his recovery.

Giancarlo Stanton To Miss Rest Of Season

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In a shocking turn of events, Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton will miss the rest of the season, manager Don Mattingly said Sunday (Twitter link via Joe Frisaro of MLB.com). The Marlins placed Stanton on the 15-day disabled list earlier Sunday with a left groin strain, though there wasn’t any word at the time regarding the severity of the injury. In providing an afternoon update, Mattingly referred to it as “serious.”

This is now the third straight year in which Stanton’s season has ended in premature fashion. The prodigious slugger’s 2014 campaign concluded in September after then-Brewers right-hander Mike Fiers hit him in the face with a pitch. Stanton then fractured his left hamate bone last June, thereby limiting him to 74 games. His latest issue came as a result of an awkward slide in the Marlins’ 8-7 loss to the White Sox on Saturday. All the more painful for him and the Marlins is that it came on the final out of the game.

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Miami, which pulled out a 5-4 win over the ChiSox on Sunday, is now 61-56 and in possession of a Wild Card spot in the National League. However, it’s difficult to envision the Marlins maintaining their position without two of their best power threats in Stanton and first baseman Justin Bour, who hasn’t played since July 2 because of an ankle issue and isn’t progressing toward a return. The Marlins entered Sunday just 28th in the majors in home runs (96), and that’s with a combined 40 having come from Stanton (25) and Bour (15). Thanks largely to his home run prowess, Stanton produced an above-average line of .244/.329/.496 in 432 trips to the plate prior to his injury.

Going forward, Miami has a capable fourth outfielder in 3,000-hit club member Ichiro Suzuki, who – barring a trade – will turn into an everyday option, but he and Stanton provide vastly different skill sets. Although Ichiro has hit a solid .316/.388/.386 with matching strikeout and walk rates (9.8 percent) in 244 PAs, the 42-year-old has gone without a home run this season and has amassed a total of two since 2014.

Given that they haven’t been able to replace Bour’s power from within and surely won’t be able to make up for Stanton’s, the Marlins will consider free agent Alex Rodriguez, according to Craig Davis of the Sun Sentinel (Twitter link).

“He’s an available player,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said of the 41-year-old Rodriguez, whom the Yankees released Saturday.

If the Marlins were to sign Rodriguez, the right-handed hitter would likely team with the lefty-swinging Derek Dietrich in a first base platoon. Rodriguez hit a paltry .200/.247/.351 this year before the Yankees parted with him, but he’s only a season removed from swatting 33 homers. He also recorded an outstanding .263/.394/.532 line in 193 PAs against southpaws in 2015.

Mattingly spoke Saturday of Rodriguez, a Miami native and resident, saying, “There’s no reason he couldn’t play first. He has the ability to do a lot of things. We miss Justin a little bit over there at first. I don’t think we’ve been able to replace that. We’re always looking at ways of getting better in different areas.”

Regardless of what Marlins brass decides to do next, this is certainly a grim day for the franchise. Miami awarded Stanton a record-setting contract extension worth $325MM over 13 years in November 2014, and the fact that his season is over means he’ll ultimately run his missed games total up to 147 since then. Unlike last year, the Marlins actually have legitimate postseason hopes, making Sunday’s developments that much worse.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Marlins Place Giancarlo Stanton, Adam Conley On DL

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In a pair of highly unfortunate developments for the playoff-contending Marlins, the club has placed both right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (left groin strain) and southpaw Adam Conley (left third finger tendonitis) on the 15-day disabled list, per an official announcement. To fill their respective spots on the roster, the Marlins have recalled infielder Robert Andino and recently acquired left-handed reliever Hunter Cervenka from Triple-A New Orleans. They’ve also released right-handed reliever Cody Hall.

Stanton suffered his injury on a slide that led to the final out of the Marlins’ 8-7 loss to the White Sox on Saturday. The 26-year-old, who hit his 25th home run of the season earlier in the game, was trying to stretch a single into a double on the play and slid awkwardly, hurting his groin.

This is the second straight year with a noteworthy injury for Stanton, whose 2015 season ended in June on account of a fractured left hamate bone. Stanton was hitting an excellent .265/.346/.606 with 27 homers in 318 plate appearances at the time, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective this season. Still, the star slugger has produced an above-average .244/.329/.496 batting line in 432 trips to the plate, and he remains among the sport’s premier power threats.

Losing Stanton leaves Miami without two of its three home run leaders, including first baseman Justin Bour, who hasn’t played since July 2 because of an ankle issue and isn’t progressing toward a return. Even before Stanton’s injury, the Marlins dropped eight of 11 games to begin August, though they remain within a half-game of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. But, just as they haven’t been able to come close to replicating Bour’s lost production, they won’t be able to find anyone to rival Stanton’s output. While the newest member of the 3,000-hit club, Ichiro Suzuki, has batted .319/.389/.390 in 240 PAs and represents a quality off-the-bench fill-in, the 42-year-old is a radically different player than Stanton. Ichiro hasn’t homered this year and has gone deep only twice since 2014.

Conley, meanwhile, hasn’t thrown more than five innings in a start since July 27. He logged four frames Saturday and gave up five earned runs on five hits and four walks. Conley then revealed that he has been dealing with soreness in his pitching hand that has sapped him of velocity, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.

Like Stanton, Conley will be difficult for Miami to replace. Aside from ace Jose Fernandez, Conley has perhaps been the Marlins’ best starter. The 26-year-old has recorded a 3.94 ERA, 8.42 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9 across 130 1/3 innings this season. He’ll now join southpaw Wei-Yin Chen as the second key member of their rotation to hit the DL, leaving them with Fernandez, Tom Koehler, Andrew Cashner and David Phelps. The only one of those four who inspires confidence is Fernandez, but the Marlins are keeping an eye on his innings and are skipping his originally scheduled Sunday start.

Jose Urena, Justin Nicolino and Kendry Flores are potential Conley replacements in New Orleans, though the former two have performed poorly in extensive major league action this year. Depending on the severity of Conley’s injury, then, the Marlins seem like candidates to scour the market for a potential August trade. Otherwise, their iffy-at-best rotation could help cost them a playoff spot.

NL East Notes: Collins, Mets, Marlins, Stanton, Harper, Belisle

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Mets manager Terry Collins missed today’s game due to illness and will remain in a Milwaukee hospital overnight for observation and further tests, ESPN’s Adam Rubin writes.  Collins left Miller Park around a half-hour before the start of today’s Mets/Brewers game, with bench coach Dick Scott serving as interim manager in the 5-3 Brewers victory.  Collins was already feeling a little better just before leaving for the hospital, though it isn’t yet clear if he’ll be ready to resume his duties on Tuesday when the Mets host the Pirates.  We at MLBTR wish Collins a quick recovery and hope to see him back in the dugout soon.  Here’s some more from around the NL East…

  • The Marlins have explored the trade market for veteran relief pitching, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports, though they don’t have much to offer teams in return.  It’s no surprise that the Fish are looking for bullpen help, with Carter Capps and Bryan Morris both lost to season-ending injuries.
  • Also from Jackson’s piece, he writes that the Marlins aren’t yet overly worried about Giancarlo Stanton’s struggles and feel the outfielder “is simply [in] a slump.”  Stanton has 12 homers but only a .192/.299/.415 slash line over 225 PA, with a whopping 79 strikeouts.
  • There has been lots of buzz about Bryce Harper’s next contract crossing the $500MM threshold, though as Sportsnet’s Naoko Asano writes, some factors beyond pure baseball value could determine the final number, such as the terms of the next CBA or if broadcasting rights contracts stop growing over the next few years.  That latter factor could be particularly noteworthy given how the Nationals’ MASN broadcast revenues are limited by their ongoing dispute with the Orioles, though that hasn’t stopped Washington from making a number of big signings that contain deferred money.
  • Matt Belisle’s minor league rehab assignment can’t continue past June 22, so the Nationals will soon have a decision to make in their bullpen, MLB.com’s William Ladson writes.  Belisle went on the DL with a calf strain near the end of April and has been rehabbing at Double- and Triple-A for the better part of three weeks, and MLB pitchers can only spend up to 30 days on rehab assignments.
  • The Mets loaded up on pitching in this year’s draft, a strategy Ken Davidoff of the New York Post wonders is the first step towards the Mets shopping Matt Harvey this offseason.  There has been a lot of speculation that Harvey won’t re-sign with the Mets when he hits free agency after the 2018 season, so bolstering the system with young arms could allow the Mets to consider trading Harvey if they feel they have enough pitching depth.

AL East Notes: Jones, Davis, Stanton, Bogaerts

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Orioles star Adam Jones continued to express his feelings on an important offseason for the organization, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. The highly-respected veteran said that he thinks re-signing Chris Davis is “probably the highest priority” for the organization this winter. Skipper Buck Showalter addressed the subject in a less direct manner. “We’d like to keep everybody, obviously,” he said. “I think everybody shares that. Let’s see where it goes. We all have our own personal feelings about it. You can probably guess what mine are. Some things you reach for because, let’s be frank, it makes your job easier. But you also know what your job description is.”

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • The Orioles “briefly” pursued extension talks with Davis and his representatives at the Boras Corporation, per Connolly. But despite stated interest from both sides in an ongoing relationship, those discussions never gained much traction.
  • Looking even further back into “what-if” transactional history, the Red Sox had a legitimate chance a few years ago to land Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, according to ESPNBoston.com’s Gordon Edes. But Miami was insistent that any deal would have to include shortstop Xander Bogaerts, and that proved a sticking point that prevented further progress.
  • The Red Sox have obviously received exactly what they hoped for when they placed a high value on Bogaerts. As he turns 23 today, the shortstop is putting the finishing touches on an outstanding season in which he’s been worth about 4.5 to 5 wins above replacement. The same holds true, of course, of the versatile Mookie Betts. (He’ll reach 23 years of age within the week.) Those performances raise the possibility of extension talks, says Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, who analyzes the history of similarly-situated young players as well as that of new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Byrnes, Rangers, Baker, Holland

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As was reported earlier, Josh Byrnes is a candidate for a role in the Angels’ front office, notes Ken Rosenthal in his latest video for FOX Sports. It would be surprising to see Byrnes join the Angels. He’s twice lost jobs while working for difficult owners. Angels owner Arte Moreno”fits the same mold.”

Here’s more from Rosenthal:

  • The Rangers have a logjam of left-handed hitters and outfielders. Improved play from Mitch Moreland and Shin-Soo Choo should offer some flexibility this offseason. Potential star prospects like Nomar Mazara, Lewis Brinson, and Joey Gallo are all on the cusp of the majors.
  • Why should Dusty Baker consider managing for the Marlins? Rosenthal thinks they’re likely to overpay. Their history of firing managers also means Baker could take home three years of money for one season of work. Personally, I view that as a discouraging “advantage.” More importantly, the Marlins still have a ton of young talent headlined by Giancarlo Stanton.
  • Greg Holland’s elbow injury will allow the Royals to non-tender him without much regret. Had he remained healthy, the club probably would have tried to trade him. Now they can instead pursue a multi-year, incentive-laden extension.
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