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Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Sign Ha-Seong Kim

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The Rays officially announced the signing of Ha-Seong Kim to a two-year free agent deal. The Boras Corporation client is reportedly guaranteed $29MM and can opt out after the first season. Kim will make a $13MM base salary for the upcoming season. He can earn an additional $2MM in performance bonuses, as he’ll make $10K for every plate appearance between 326 and 525. If Kim forgoes the opt-out, he’ll make $16MM in 2026. Lefty Brandon Eisert has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Kim’s free agency has been one of the more difficult ones to project on account of his uncertain health status. In August of last year, while with the Padres, he injured his right shoulder while diving back into first base on a pickoff attempt. He underwent surgery in October to repair the labrum in that shoulder. His agent, Scott Boras, has since suggested that Kim could be back on the field by April. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller gave a more nebulous and less optimistic answer of “May, June, July.”

Prior to that injury, there was an argument for Kim securing a four- or five-year deal, perhaps approaching nine figures. But the injury to his throwing shoulder made that harder to see. Though he’s a solid hitter, a big part of his appeal as a player is his defense. He has played most of his career at shortstop but also has significant time at second and third base with strong marks at all three spots. If he comes back from surgery with diminished arm strength and is less viable on the left side of the diamond, that would cut into his value.

As such, it seemed likely that he would sign a deal that allowed him to return to free agency next year, either on a one-year deal or a two-year pact with an opt-out. That would give him the chance to potentially return, prove his health and sign another contract with the injury in the rear-view mirror.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Kim for a straight one-year pact with a $12MM guarantee, though with the caveat he could follow players like Rhys Hoskins and Michael Conforto in securing a two-year pact with an opt-out. Hoskins got $34MM from the Brewers and Conforto $36MM from the Giants. Both are represented by Boras and Kim switched his representation to that agency in October, shortly after his injury.

The situations aren’t completely analogous. Both Hoskins and Conforto signed their deals after missing an entire season but were set to be healthy as those deals began. Kim, however, seems likely to start the season on the injured list. Kim’s guarantee comes in a bit below those guys, perhaps a reflection of the slightly different timeline.

That makes this an interesting gamble for the Rays. If Kim’s injury lingers towards the longer end of Preller’s timeline, it’s possible that they are going to be paying him $13MM for just half a season. If Kim doesn’t immediately get back in form, he could then forego his opt-out and stick around for 2026 with an even higher salary. For what it’s worth, both Hoskins and Conforto had tepid results in the first years of their respective deals and did not use their opt-outs.

The upside for the Rays is that they could get a really strong player for a relatively modest price. Kim struggled at the plate in 2021, his first season after coming over from Korea, but has been above average in each of the three seasons since then. He stepped to plate 1,678 times over the 2022 to 2024 campaigns, with his 11% walk rate and 17.9% strikeout rate both a few ticks better than average. While not a huge power threat, he got to double-digit homers in each of those campaigns, hitting 39 overall. His combined batting line of .250/.336/.385 led to a wRC+ of 106.

As mentioned, Kim is a strong defender at multiple positions. He also stole 72 bases over the past three years. Putting it all together, FanGraphs has considered him to be roughly a four-win player. He was credited with 3.6 fWAR in 2022 and 4.2 the year after. Last year, the injury limited him to just 121 games, so his fWAR tally came in a bit lighter at 2.6.

The Rays have some question marks at shortstop. Wander Franco was supposed to be the long-term answer there but he hasn’t played since August of 2023, when heinous allegations of sexual abuse against minors emerged. The legal process is still playing out on those charges but it would be surprising if he ever returns to the majors.

Players like Taylor Walls, José Caballero and Osleivis Basabe are on the roster but each of them have posted lackluster offensive numbers in their respective careers thus far. Prospect Carson Williams is probably the new shortstop of the future but he might still need some more time in the minors. He’s still not yet 22 years old, with that birthday coming up in June, and spent all of last year at Double-A. He did get into four Triple-A games late in 2023 but the Rays might want to send him there for a slightly longer stint before giving him his major league debut.

For the Rays, ideally, Kim can return relatively early in the year and play like his old self. Junior Caminero seems likely to take over the third base job this year, with Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz the projected regulars on the other side of the infield. That could give them a formidable infield for the majority of the season.

If that plan comes to fruition, Kim would likely opt-out and head back to free agency. He would be leaving $16MM on the table but would be looking for a larger guarantee on a multi-year deal. The Rays could then issue him a qualifying offer, which would probably be around $22MM or so. The QO was $21.05MM this offseason but usually goes up over time due to salaries increasing. The QO number is calculated by averaging out the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That could allow the Rays to recoup draft pick compensation and then perhaps hand over the shortstop job to Williams.

There are other less-ideal outcomes on the other end of the spectrum. It’s possible Kim doesn’t return until the second half. Or he returns at some point but his arm strength isn’t quite what it was, making him an imperfect shortstop solution. Or perhaps Williams seizes the job before Kim gets back, leaving him as something of a high-priced utility guy. In those or other imperfect scenarios, the odds of him staying for 2026 would increase. That would naturally be an underwater deal at that point, since he would have walked away otherwise.

That wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world, depending on the specifics. The Cubs got an okay-but-not-great season out of Cody Bellinger in 2024, then saw him forego an opt-out opportunity. They were still able to dump most of the remainder of the contract on the Yankees. The Brewers, however, are seemingly stuck with Hoskins after his mediocre season. That has perhaps been part of the reason why they don’t have a lot of financial wiggle room this winter.

The Rays are a low-spending club, far more like the Brewers than the Cubs or the Giants. Kim’s $13MM salary will actually make him the highest-paid player on the team. Though they’ve given out some big extensions over the years, this is the third-largest guarantee they’ve given to a free agent, behind the $40MM they gave Zach Eflin and the $30MM they gave Charlie Morton.

It’s unclear exactly what sort of payroll parameters they have for 2025. Cot’s Baseball Contracts had them at $99MM on Opening Day last year. They ended up moving some players making notable salaries at the deadline, such as Eflin, Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes. This offseason, they flipped Jeffrey Springs to the Athletics but then signed Danny Jansen and now Kim.

RosterResource now projects them for a $90MM payroll this year. That’s a bit below 2024 but they also might have extra financial concerns apart from player salaries. Due to the hurricane damage to Tropicana Field, they are going to be playing the 2025 season at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. That’s normally the home of the Tampa Tarpons, the Single-A affiliate of the Yankees. That is presumably leading to some unexpected moving costs and perhaps less ticket revenue for the upcoming season. Their plans for next year and beyond are murky as well.

It’s an interesting gambit for the club to take with its limited resources. For clubs still looking for middle infield help, Alex Bregman is a potential option due to his reported willingness to play second base. Apart from him, Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong and Brendan Rodgers are some of the notable free agents.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the two-year deal, $29MM guarantee and opt-out. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported the specific annual breakdown and the incentives. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the bonuses start at 325 plate appearances. The Associated Press reported the $10K per plate appearance specifics.

Dodgers Exploring Alternatives To Teoscar Hernandez

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Negotiations between the Dodgers and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez remain at an impasse, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. While L.A. and Hernandez have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion following a successful 2024 campaign that ended in a World Series championship, previous reporting indicated a “gap” remained between the sides in negotiations. Evidently, that gap remains, as Rosenthal reports that Los Angeles brass are “exploring” right-handed alternatives to Hernandez they could add to their lineup instead. The three names Rosenthal lists as potential options for the Dodgers are free agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki, and White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Rosenthal emphasizes, however, that it’s not yet clear how serious the Dodgers are about those pursuits.

Of the three names floated, Suzuki is perhaps the best replacement for Hernandez from the Dodgers’ perspective. He hit .283/.366/.482 with 21 homers and 16 steals in 132 games for the Cubs last year. His high on-base percentage and lesser power make him a somewhat different flavor of hitter than Hernandez, but Suzuki’s 138 wRC+ actually has the edge over Hernandez’s own figure of 134. Both are generally regarded as below-average defenders in an outfield corner, but either one would provide the Dodgers with a big right-handed bat to add to their lineup and a regular for the outfield corner not occupied by Michael Conforto.

Good a fit as Suzuki would be, however, acquiring him may be easier said than done. Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are “not inclined” to trade Suzuki this winter. The club entered the offseason with something of a logjam in the outfield due to the presence of both Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, and that logjam only grew when the club added star right fielder Kyle Tucker in a trade with the Astros earlier this month. Since then, the Cubs dealt Bellinger to the Yankees. While that leaves them in a similar situation as the one they entered the winter in, with two right fielders on the roster and Suzuki likely relegated to regular DH duties, the club still seems to prefer keeping Suzuki rather than parting ways with the talented hitter.

Rosenthal suggests that the Cubs feel that Suzuki would be difficult to replace due to a thin market for impactful right-handed hitters. Aside from Suzuki, the middle of Chicago’s lineup is occupied by switch-hitter Ian Happ as well as lefty bats Tucker and Michael Busch, so Suzuki’s presence adds some much-needed right-handed thump to that mix. Suzuki also holds a no-trade clause, but his previously reported desire to avoid being a full-time DH could make the possibility of a trade that would make him L.A.’s regular right fielder a palatable option. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that the Dodgers could include a talented right-handed bat such as Andy Pages in a package for Suzuki’s services in order to bridge that gap, though six seasons of team control over Pages would be a steep price to pay. Suzuki is under contract for two more seasons and will make $19MM in both 2025 and ’26 before hitting free agency.

Robert, meanwhile, certainly has the potential to match Hernandez’s offensive impact but has yet to demonstrate consistency in the majors. The 27-year-old endured the worst season of his career in 2024 as he hit just .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) while striking out at a 33.2% clip, but hit a much more palatable .287/.331/.511 (129 wRC+) over the prior three seasons and is just one season removed from a 4.9 fWAR 2023 campaign. Robert pairs that volatile but potentially impactful bat with impressive speed (he stole 23 bases in just 100 games this year) and quality defense in center field. He also comes with plenty of injury risk, as 2024 was just the second time in his career he played in even 100 games due to a number of trips to the injured list over the years.

Rosenthal suggests that if the Dodgers were to take a chance on the talented-but-inconsistent Robert, he’d slot into center field for Los Angeles. It’s unclear whether that would mean moving Mookie Betts back to right field and playing Tommy Edman at shortstop, or perhaps a move to second base for Edman that pushes Gavin Lux to the bench (or off the team via trade) and leaves right field open for some combination of Andy Pages and James Outman. Robert is guaranteed $17MM in the form of a $15MM salary and a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2026, but could be retained via club options through the end of the 2027 season if acquired. In terms of acquisition cost, it’s possible that Robert would be less pricey than Suzuki given that Rosenthal reports that the White Sox don’t expect to land multiple top prospects in exchange for Robert, though they would want a “meaningful piece” in return for the All-Star.

Kim is somewhat unique as a potential target for multiple reasons. As a free agent, he’d cost the Dodgers nothing but money as opposed to a trade for Suzuki or Robert that would require some sort of player or prospect return headed the other way. He’s also an infielder who derives much of his value from being a plus defender all across the infield dirt. That makes him a tricky positional fit for a Dodgers club that already figures to juggle Betts, Lux, and Miguel Rojas up the middle. While the club could simply move Betts back to right field, it’s possible they’d prefer to keep him on the dirt and play him alongside Kim with one at shortstop and the other at second base. That would leave Lux without a position, however, and also leave a hole in the outfield left to be internal options or another external addition.

Kim is also by far the weakest hitter of the three at the plate and an undeniable downgrade from Hernandez offensively. While Kim has improved leaps and bounds at the plate after a lackluster rookie season, he’s still more or less a league average hitter with a 101 wRC+ in 2024 and a .250/.336/.385 (106 wRC+) line overall since becoming a regular in 2022. It’s also worth noting that he seems ticketed for the injured list to start the season after undergoing shoulder surgery back in September, though Rosenthal reports that he’s targeting a return to the diamond “early” in the 2025 season. Even so, that would leave the Dodgers utilizing their internal options to fill out the lineup card until Kim is ready to return to action.

Tigers Interested In Ha-Seong Kim

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The Tigers have shown interest in infielder Ha-Seong Kim, as related by the Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold in a recent appearance on the Days Of Roar podcast.  The Blue Jays, Giants, and Kim’s former team the Padres have all been publicly connected to Kim this offseason, though it is fair to guess that San Francisco may be out of the running after signing Willy Adames.

As recently noted by Anthony Franco in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, Kim is one of the trickiest players to evaluate within the 2024-25 free agent class, owing to the shoulder surgery that Kim underwent in late September.  Kim will miss some time at the start of the 2025 season, though the exact timeline is up in the air — agent Scott Boras said a late-April return is possible, while Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in October said Kim might not be ready until “May, June, July.”  It should be noted that Preller was speaking broadly on the topic rather than giving any sort of definitive timeline, yet even raising the possibility of a three-month range adds to the uncertainty over Kim’s health.

Some teams have still floated the idea of signing Kim to a multi-year contract, though the exact nature of such offers aren’t clear.  It would be risky to offer Kim something like four or five guaranteed years, but a two-year contract (likely with a player opt-out after 2025) seems entirely plausible.  Kim and agent Scott Boras might also seek out a flat one-year deal with the same idea of Kim getting to quickly re-enter the market next winter, ostensibly on the heels of a healthier and productive platform year.  MLBTR’s projection of a one-year, $12MM contract for Kim supports this strategy, though Boras is no stranger to creative deals that provide his clients with plenty of flexibility.

A shorter-term contract might have more appeal to the Tigers, who are reportedly seeking out such deals in regards to starting pitchers.  Now that Detroit is coming off a wild card berth and an ALDS appearance, the expectation has been that ownership and president of baseball operations Scott Harris will be somewhat more aggressive in upgrading on seems like a winning core, though the Tigers’ offseason has been pretty quiet to date, albeit with some rumors of interest in Jack Flaherty or Alex Bregman.

From a pure baseball perspective, a healthy Kim would be an ideal fit for the Tigers in many ways.  As Petzold notes, Kim’s speed and high-contact/low-strikeout approach greatly helps a Tigers team that finished near the bottom of the league in OBP and stolen bases, plus Kim’s right-handed bat adds balance to Detroit’s lefty-heavy lineup.  Kim is also a strong defensive player at multiple infield positions, so he could address the team’s needs at either third base or shortstop.

Javier Baez is still technically the incumbent starting shortstop, but his stock is at an all-time low after three increasingly poor seasons in Detroit and a hip surgery that ended his 2024 campaign in August.  Baez is still owed $73MM through the 2027 season, and since the Tigers would just be eating the money anyway in releasing him, the team might as well give Baez another chance at the start of the season to see if his surgery has perhaps corrected any of the health issues that led to his dropoff in production.

Trey Sweeney stepped into the shortstop role after Baez’s season ended prematurely, and Sweeney played well enough to put himself into the conversation for more regular playing time as well.  If the Tigers signed Kim, Detroit could just stick with Baez and Sweeney at shortstop until Kim is ready to play, and then evaluate whether Kim could just take over at shortstop, or perhaps play third base if Baez or Sweeney are having productive seasons.

Matt Chapman Open To Temporary Shortstop Move If Giants Sign Ha-Seong Kim

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The Giants are in the market for a shortstop. President of baseball operations Buster Posey acknowledged as much at the start of the offseason. San Francisco has been tied to Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim in recent weeks.

While Adames could play shortstop on Opening Day, that’s not the case with Kim. He underwent surgery to repair a labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. There’s still not a ton of clarity on when he’s expected back in game action. Kim’s agent Scott Boras has unsurprisingly taken an optimistic stance on the infielder’s recovery. Boras said at last month’s GM Meetings that Kim could be ready early in the season — potentially before the end of April. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has previously suggested the rehab could carry into “May, June, July,” a much more nebulous timeline.

Whichever team signs Kim will need a stopgap shortstop for at least a few weeks, potentially months. For the Giants, that could be Matt Chapman. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the star third baseman told team officials he’d be willing to play shortstop early in the year while Kim recovers. According to Rosenthal, that’s one of various possibilities the team is considering.

That’d be a creative solution. It’s not an outlandish one. Chapman is one of the sport’s best defensive third basemen. He’s a five-time Gold Glove winner. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have graded him as a strong defender in every season of his career. Chapman tied Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz for the league lead among third basemen in Outs Above Average this year. He’s fifth at the position by that metric across the past three seasons.

Chapman, who has 10 career innings at shortstop, has plenty of arm strength. He certainly has the hands for the position. The only question is whether he’d have enough lateral quickness to be a plus in the middle of the diamond, but he could probably at least play a competent shortstop for a month or two.

Sliding Chapman to shortstop would open a short-term hole at third base. Tyler Fitzgerald, Marco Luciano, Brett Wisely, Casey Schmitt and David Villar are among the options for work there. Aside from Villar, everyone from that group has some shortstop experience as well. None seems like a long-term answer. Wisely was primarily a second baseman in the minors, while Schmitt has spent most of his career at third base. Luciano has come up as a shortstop but was a disaster defensively in a limited MLB look. His long-term future is probably in the corner outfield.

Fitzgerald got the majority of the shortstop reps late in the season. He’d probably start there if the Giants came up empty in their pursuit. While he hit well enough to earn everyday playing time, the Giants seem to prefer him elsewhere. Posey suggested last month that Fitzgerald could be a second baseman. He also implied they were hopeful they could avoid bouncing him around the diamond as much next season.

“Tyler Fitzgerald did a great job at short last year. I think he has value and in multiple spots on the field,” Posey said at the GM Meetings (link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). “I do think it’s hard to play multiple spots at the same time during the season. Whether he’d be better suited to play second base long-term is a discussion we’re having.“

Ha-Seong Kim’s Challenging Free Agent Case

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Ha-Seong Kim represents one of the biggest risk-reward plays of this year's free agent class. That didn't seem like it'd be the case in August. For most of the season, Kim's profile was built around stability. He wasn't a huge offensive threat, but his plus defense at shortstop and league average bat gave him a strong floor. Kim hadn't had a single injured list stint since making the move from Korea, so durability was going to be one of his biggest selling points.

That changed on August 18. Kim dove back into first base awkwardly on a pickoff attempt. He jammed his right shoulder and went on the IL. The Padres initially announced the injury as inflammation and expressed hope he'd be back within a couple weeks. Kim didn't return and eventually underwent a season-ending labrum repair.

Kim's return timeline is up in the air, as is his free agent value. It seems clear he won't be ready for Opening Day. There's not much known beyond that. Agent Scott Boras has said the 29-year-old will be ready early in the '25 campaign. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was more vague, saying last month that it could be anytime around "May, June, July." Forecasting Kim's market when there's such a wide variance on his return timeline is tricky. That's borne out in the extreme range of pre-offseason contract predictions.

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Giants, Blue Jays Showing Interest In Ha-Seong Kim

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Ha-Seong Kim is finding interest in free agency’s opening days. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that the Giants have identified him as an early target. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays are also showing interest as they evaluate infield possibilities.

While this is the first substantive tie between Kim and the Giants, that fit had been speculated long before he hit free agency. Giants skipper Bob Melvin managed the infielder for two seasons with the Padres. President of baseball operations Buster Posey has called shortstop a target area. Improving defensively seems like a particular priority, as landing a shortstop could allow San Francisco to slide Tyler Fitzgerald to second base.

Willy Adames is the top free agent shortstop. He could land a six- or seven-year contract. Kim seemed to be on track for four or five years as recently as a few months ago. A season-ending shoulder injury and postseason labrum surgery make it likelier he’ll take a short-term deal. The Padres opted not to issue a qualifying offer, which Kim would almost certainly have declined if he were healthy. San Diego president of baseball ops A.J. Preller has floated a nebulous timeline for the 29-year-old’s return, suggesting he could be out between May and July. Kim’s agent Scott Boras has indicated he could be available earlier in the season, potentially before the end of April.

Kim’s value is driven largely by his glove. He has proven to be a plus defender throughout the infield, at least when he’s at full strength. While some teams could be concerned about his arm in the immediate aftermath of a significant shoulder procedure, Kim had shown a sufficient arm before the surgery to play on the left side of the infield. He’s a roughly league average hitter, compensating for middling power with good contact skills and strong walk rates. Kim hit .233/.330/.370 with 11 homers and 22 stolen bases during his platform year.

He’s also a plus defender at second base, where the Jays would ostensibly target him. Nicholson-Smith reported last night that Toronto had also checked in on Gleyber Torres. Toronto has Bo Bichette returning at shortstop. Between second and third base, they have a handful of internal options who are light on MLB experience (e.g. Will Wagner, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Ernie Clement). Toronto also used Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sporadically at the hot corner.

MLBTR predicted Kim for a one-year pillow contract valued around $12MM. His camp could try to secure a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, though it’s not clear if teams are willing to take that risk coming off the injury. The Padres have expressed interest in bringing him back, while the Braves and Mariners are speculative possibilities to pursue middle infield help.

Ha-Seong Kim Declines Mutual Option With Padres; Wandy Peralta Declines Opt-Out

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Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim declined his end of an $8MM mutual option for the 2025 season, and he’ll now take a $2MM buyout and enter free agency, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (X link).  Left-hander Wandy Peralta will be staying in San Diego for at least one more season, as Peralta will pass on his opt-out clause and remain in the four-year, $16.5MM deal he signed with the Padres last winter.

Neither decision registers as a surprise. Kim has hit .250/.336/.385 over the past three years for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he has been 6% above league average at the plate in that time. He also stole 72 bases in that stretch and provided above-average defense at shortstop, second base and third base.

His situation is a bit complicated by the fact that he underwent right labrum surgery not too long ago. His return timetable is a bit unclear but it has been suggested he is likely to miss at least part of the start of the 2025 season.

Even with that injury situation, it’s understandable that he would walk away from his mutual option at a net $6MM price point. Players coming back from injury can often still have notable earning power. Michael Conforto secured a two-year, $36MM deal from the Giants after missing an entire season. Rhys Hoskins got two years and $34MM from the Brewers after his own missed campaign. Both players had the ability to opt out after one season, though neither eventually did so.

The situations aren’t entirely analogous. Both Conforto and Hoskins were expected to be healthy in the first seasons of their deals, which won’t be the case with Kim. Perhaps that puts his earning power a bit below those two, but it still makes it sensible for him to turn down his option today. Whether he can get a two-year deal with an opt-out or a more straightforward one-year pillow deal, he should be able to get past the $6MM he’s leaving on the table today.

For the Padres, they will now have to figure out what to do at shortstop. When Kim was hurt late in the year, they moved Xander Bogaerts from second to short. It’s unclear whether they would want to do that for the long term as they just decided a year ago to have Bogaerts take on the less-demanding second base spot. Jackson Merrill came up as a shortstop before getting moved to center field for 2024. He could switch back but performed so well in center that the club might decide to keep him there.

The free agent market is headlined by Willy Adames but the Padres have some payroll limitations and probably aren’t the most logical landing spot for him. The trade market could feature Bo Bichette but it’s unclear if the Blue Jays will make him available.

As for Peralta, he signed with the Padres last winter on a four-year deal with a $16.5MM guarantee and opt-outs after each season. He went on to have a pretty mediocre season, despite a respectable 3.99 earned run average. His 52.9% ground ball rate was still above league average but his worst in a full season since 2019. His strikeout rate fell to 13.6% this year after being in the 18-23% range in the previous five years.

It it weren’t for a fairly low .233 batting average on balls in play, he would have allowed more runs to score. His 5.46 FIP and 4.57 SIERA disagree on how bad things were under the hood but both suggest the ERA is misleading. After that performance, he’ll stick with the Padres and hope for a better season, with the chance of returning to free agency again a year from now.

Preller Discusses Padres’ Shortstop Situation

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The Padres find themselves in an unfamiliar position. San Diego could be on the lookout for a shortstop despite their affinity for collecting players with experience at the position. Most of those players (i.e. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth) moved off shortstop. Ha-Seong Kim will be a free agent when he declines his end of a mutual option in favor of a $2MM buyout. Kim is among the most difficult free agents to project after his season was cut short by a labrum injury that required surgery.

San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller addressed the position as part of a conference call with reporters on Monday (links via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Preller said the Padres “would love to bring (Kim) back” but acknowledged the uncertain timeline on his injury.

The Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee wrote a few weeks ago that Kim was aiming for a return in April or May. Preller left the situation more open-ended. The executive noted that Kim isn’t slated to begin a throwing program until close to the start of the season. As for a return to game action, Preller loosely floated “May, June, July” as viable outcomes.

It’s clearly too early in the rehab process for the Padres to narrow down a specific target. That uncertainty should all but close the book on the chance of San Diego issuing Kim a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old infielder would probably accept a $21.05MM salary, which is too much for the Padres to risk with Kim looking very likely to at least begin the season on the injured list.

Preller and his staff also face notable free agent losses in the bullpen (Tanner Scott), left field (Jurickson Profar) and behind the plate (Kyle Higashioka). The relief group should be strong enough to weather Scott’s departure, but the Padres will need to address a few spots in the lineup while also finding a replacement for the injured Joe Musgrove in the rotation. That could make it difficult to retain Kim.

Even if the Padres were to bring him back, they’d need a short-term replacement while he completes his rehab. If he walks, they’ll need a permanent answer. Bogaerts moved back from second base for the stretch run. The Padres seem to prefer him at the keystone, though they might not have any better options at shortstop.

Machado and Cronenworth haven’t played there in years. Nor has Tatis, who has been a full-time right fielder since returning from the injuries and suspension that wiped out his 2022 season. Merrill developed as a shortstop prospect before learning center field on the fly. The 21-year-old immediately became one of the sport’s top all-around center fielders.

Preller didn’t seem keen on the idea of moving Tatis or Merrill back to the infield. “They’d probably love that possibility. They always joke around — ’Whatever’s needed,’” the baseball ops president said. “The great part of those guys is they’re talented athletes, they can play different spots. … But Tati winning the Platinum [Glove] two years ago, and Jackson doing a tremendous job in center field this year, we know that they’re really good at what they do in the outfield.”

There hasn’t been much serious discussion about Tatis moving back to shortstop. It’s a plausible scenario for Merrill, who only moved off shortstop in deference to Kim and seems as if he can comfortably adjust to whatever position the Padres ask of him. Yet as Preller noted, it’s tempting to leave Merrill in center field with how well he played this year. San Diego doesn’t have an obvious in-house candidate to take over in center if Merrill were to come back onto the infield. They’d probably need to acquire a center fielder and the free agent market at the position is extremely thin. It’s not much deeper at shortstop, where only Willy Adames and Kim, if healthy, profile as regulars.

Ha-Seong Kim Reportedly Targeting Early-Season Return From Labrum Surgery

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Ha-Seong Kim underwent labrum surgery on his right shoulder on Thursday. The Padres never provided a timeline for the infielder’s return, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune sheds some light on the recovery. According to Acee, Kim is targeting mid-late April or early May for his return to game action.

If he’s able to stay on that trajectory, Kim could be available for the majority of next season. Kim, who turns 29 next week, now represents one of the more interesting risk-reward plays in the free agent class. He’s still a lock to decline his end of a mutual option. The Padres could make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer, but that’d be a risky decision this early into his recovery from shoulder surgery. QO decisions are due within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. That’ll only afford the Padres about three weeks to gauge Kim’s health before making that call.

It seems unlikely the Padres would take that gamble. That’d allow Kim to hit free agency unencumbered by draft compensation. If healthy, he’d probably be in line for a contract of four-plus seasons. At his best, he’s only behind Willy Adames among middle infielders in the upcoming class. Adames is the only other impending free agent who profiles as an everyday shortstop. Kim has demonstrated that he can play plus defense at second and third base, as well, so he’d make sense for a broad range of teams.

Clubs’ evaluations of Kim’s shoulder will play an important role in his free agent process. If teams believe he’ll be fully recovered within the first month or two of next season, the injury theoretically shouldn’t have a huge impact on demand. That’s a big caveat, so it’s possible Kim’s market dips to the point where he considers a short-term deal.

Kim recently hired the Boras Corporation as his representation. A few rehabbing high-profile Boras clients have signed two-year contracts that allow them to opt out after the first season. Michael Conforto signed for $36MM with the Giants after missing the entire 2022 season to shoulder surgery. Last winter, Rhys Hoskins inked a $34MM deal with the Brewers a season removed from a Spring Training ACL tear.

Neither of those contracts have worked out especially well for the team. Conforto passed on his opt-out after a middling first season in San Francisco. Hoskins will probably do the same with Milwaukee. Kim is a very different player than Conforto or Hoskins — a lot more of his value is tied in his defense — but that’s a general path he might look to follow.

The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote this afternoon that the Padres would like to bring Kim back, though he notes that the infielder could price himself out of San Diego’s range. That’d leave the Friars with a question at shortstop. San Diego used Xander Bogaerts at the position down the stretch. Lin indicates the Padres prefer to move Bogaerts back to second base next season. Jackson Merrill came up as a shortstop prospect but played all 1300+ innings in center field as a rookie. Merrill had a fantastic debut campaign, so the Padres could decide to leave him in center.

Ha-Seong Kim, Joe Musgrove Undergo Surgeries

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Before the Padres’ season came to an end with tonight’s shutout loss in Los Angeles, San Diego provided a pair of injury updates. Ha-Seong Kim and Joe Musgrove both underwent their previously announced surgeries this week. Dennis Lin of the Athletic tweets that Kim had a labrum repair on his right shoulder yesterday, while Musgrove’s Tommy John surgery was performed on Friday.

Kim’s status will be one of the bigger stories of the offseason. The Padres haven’t provided a timetable for the infielder’s return. It’s not clear how much of next season, if any, he’ll be sidelined. The surgery comes at a brutal time for Kim, who is set to decline his end of an $8MM mutual option and reach free agency this winter. The defensive stalwart had an argument for a deal of four or five years at $15MM+ annually if he were healthy.

His market value is much more difficult to pin down now. Kim looked like a lock to receive and decline a qualifying offer midway through the summer. Unless the Padres expect him to be fully recovered early in the 2025 season, they probably won’t make the QO. The surgery raises the possibility of Kim taking a shorter-term contract. That could be a straight one-year deal or, more likely, a two-year pact that allows him to opt out after the first season.

San Diego will need to weigh a qualifying offer decision on both Kim and Jurickson Profar. If they let Kim walk, they’ll decide whether to go outside the organization for a shortstop or move one of their current players back to the position. The Padres used Xander Bogaerts at shortstop down the stretch. They could keep Bogaerts there with Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arraez on the right side of the infield. San Diego also has the option of giving Jackson Merrill a look at shortstop, but the 21-year-old had such a fantastic season in center field that the Padres may not want to change his role again. Bringing Merrill back into the infield would open a second gap to plug in the outfield alongside Profar’s potential departure.

Musgrove is under contract for $20MM in the third season of his five-year extension. The timing of the surgery means he’s very likely to miss the entire 2025 season. Musgrove isn’t willing to already close the book on the year, however. The righty told reporters he’s maintaining some hope that he could contribute if the Friars make a playoff push. “Some guys regenerate tissues faster than others,” he said earlier this week (via Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). “I’m always going to leave room for the miracle of coming back in a crazy amount of time. But hearing the stories and reading up and doing my homework and talking with our trainers who have rehabbed tons of these, there’s a lot of importance in giving it the time on the front end that it needs.”

The 31-year-old (32 in December) would need an atypically quick recovery to pitch next season. The standard Tommy John rehab takes around 14-16 months. If Musgrove were to make a surprising return, it’d probably in short relief. The Padres will go into next season with Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish as healthy starters. Martín Pérez will be a free agent, while Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez profile better in depth roles. Musgrove’s injury could lead the Padres to acquire multiple starting pitchers this winter.

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