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Ha-Seong Kim

Ha-Seong Kim, Joe Musgrove Undergo Surgeries

By Anthony Franco | October 11, 2024 at 10:48pm CDT

Before the Padres’ season came to an end with tonight’s shutout loss in Los Angeles, San Diego provided a pair of injury updates. Ha-Seong Kim and Joe Musgrove both underwent their previously announced surgeries this week. Dennis Lin of the Athletic tweets that Kim had a labrum repair on his right shoulder yesterday, while Musgrove’s Tommy John surgery was performed on Friday.

Kim’s status will be one of the bigger stories of the offseason. The Padres haven’t provided a timetable for the infielder’s return. It’s not clear how much of next season, if any, he’ll be sidelined. The surgery comes at a brutal time for Kim, who is set to decline his end of an $8MM mutual option and reach free agency this winter. The defensive stalwart had an argument for a deal of four or five years at $15MM+ annually if he were healthy.

His market value is much more difficult to pin down now. Kim looked like a lock to receive and decline a qualifying offer midway through the summer. Unless the Padres expect him to be fully recovered early in the 2025 season, they probably won’t make the QO. The surgery raises the possibility of Kim taking a shorter-term contract. That could be a straight one-year deal or, more likely, a two-year pact that allows him to opt out after the first season.

San Diego will need to weigh a qualifying offer decision on both Kim and Jurickson Profar. If they let Kim walk, they’ll decide whether to go outside the organization for a shortstop or move one of their current players back to the position. The Padres used Xander Bogaerts at shortstop down the stretch. They could keep Bogaerts there with Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arraez on the right side of the infield. San Diego also has the option of giving Jackson Merrill a look at shortstop, but the 21-year-old had such a fantastic season in center field that the Padres may not want to change his role again. Bringing Merrill back into the infield would open a second gap to plug in the outfield alongside Profar’s potential departure.

Musgrove is under contract for $20MM in the third season of his five-year extension. The timing of the surgery means he’s very likely to miss the entire 2025 season. Musgrove isn’t willing to already close the book on the year, however. The righty told reporters he’s maintaining some hope that he could contribute if the Friars make a playoff push. “Some guys regenerate tissues faster than others,” he said earlier this week (via Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). “I’m always going to leave room for the miracle of coming back in a crazy amount of time. But hearing the stories and reading up and doing my homework and talking with our trainers who have rehabbed tons of these, there’s a lot of importance in giving it the time on the front end that it needs.”

The 31-year-old (32 in December) would need an atypically quick recovery to pitch next season. The standard Tommy John rehab takes around 14-16 months. If Musgrove were to make a surprising return, it’d probably in short relief. The Padres will go into next season with Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish as healthy starters. Martín Pérez will be a free agent, while Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez profile better in depth roles. Musgrove’s injury could lead the Padres to acquire multiple starting pitchers this winter.

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San Diego Padres Ha-Seong Kim Joe Musgrove

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Ha-Seong Kim Switches Agencies, Hires Boras Corporation

By Nick Deeds | October 3, 2024 at 8:33pm CDT

Infielder Ha-Seong Kim has switched his representation, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Kim will now be represented by the Boras Corporation going forward.

Kim, 29 later this month, is seemingly poised to enter free agency this November. The infielder’s current contract with the Padres includes a mutual option for the 2025 season but Kim is widely expected to decline that $8MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout and test the open market. It will be Kim’s first unencumbered trip through free agency after signing with San Diego on a $28MM guarantee prior to the 2021 season after being posted to MLB by the Kiwoom Heroes of South Korea’s KBO. While Kim was eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs for any amount of money, the posting system comes with a few caveats that don’t exist for a typical free agent such as the posting fee that must be paid to the player’s former club and specific windows during which negotiations must take place.

Without those restrictions, Kim is likely to enjoy a different experience in his second time through MLB’s free agent process. That’s also due to his performance on the field, of course, as Kim has emerged as one of the top infield options in this winter’s class thanks to the average offense and excellent defense he flashed during his time in San Diego. Since becoming an everyday player with the Padres in 2022, Kim has slashed a solid .250/.336/.385 that’s good for a 106 wRC+, 6% better than the league average hitter. He also flashed the best plate discipline of his career this season with a 12.3% walk rate against an excellent 16.4% strikeout rate, and has chipped in 60 stolen bases in 74 attempts over the past two years.

While Kim’s offensive development since coming to stateside ball has been impressive, the main selling point of the infielder’s profile remains his strong defense. Kim ranks 17th among all infielders over the last three years in Outs Above Average with a +21 figure and is the 11th-best infielder over that same timeframe by DRS with a +30 that is only bested by Taylor Walls, Miguel Rojas, and Dansby Swanson among shortstops during that time. Kim’s defensive value is further enhanced by his versatility, as he has shown himself to be a quality defender at both second and third base in addition to shortstop.

With that being said, Kim’s outlook in free agency grew quite a bit murkier last week when it was announced that the infielder is set to undergo shoulder surgery this offseason. With so much of Kim’s value tied to his defensive value, the prospect of a major procedure on his throwing shoulder could worry some potential suitors this winter and may complicate a free agency that otherwise appeared to leave Kim in position to secure a strong multi-year guarantee. It’s a somewhat unusual situation that Kim will now turn to the Boras Corporation, the agency run by high-profile agent Scott Boras, to navigate.

Kim joins other high-profile free agents in the upcoming class such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Pete Alonso in being represented by Boras, who drew plenty of attention last winter as the free agencies of a handful of his top clients dragged into Spring Training. Each of the so-called “Boras Four,” comprised of Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and Jordan Montgomery, wound up taking short-term deals that generally met expectations in terms of average annual value but fell well short in overall guarantee. It’s an approach that’s drawn mixed reviews, with Montgomery switching his representation amid a career-worst season with the Diamondbacks while Snell praised Boras and now appears likely to head into free agency under his guidance for the second time in as many seasons. Chapman signed a hefty extension with the Giants last month in lieu of returning to the open market this winter while Bellinger’s upcoming decision on his player option remains up in the air.

Should Kim’s foray into free agency not yield the strong payday that was expected prior to the announcement of his impending shoulder surgery, it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see Kim opt for a shorter-term, option-laden deal with a high average annual value similar to the ones signed by each of those aforementioned players this winter. After all, it’s a strategy that worked out quite well for Chapman, Snell, and even Boras clients from before last winter such as Carlos Correa and Max Scherzer.

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San Diego Padres Ha-Seong Kim Scott Boras

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Ha-Seong Kim To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

By Nick Deeds | September 28, 2024 at 10:57pm CDT

Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) this evening that shortstop Ha-Seong Kim’s season is over. Kim later told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. The shortstop has been on the IL for over a month due to inflammation in his shoulder, and Shildt revealed yesterday that Kim might ultimately need to go under the knife to repair the labrum in his shoulder.

It’s a huge blow for a Padres club that has leaned heavily on the 28-year-old since he enjoyed a breakout season back in 2022. That year, Kim stepped in to replace troubled star Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop amid a lost season caused by off-the-field injuries and a PED suspension. He excelled in the role, hitting an above-average .251/.325/.383 (105 wRC+) in 150 games while playing strong defense at shortstop. Kim was pushed back to second base by the addition of Xander Bogaerts last year but took yet another step forward with the bat while playing slick defense across not only the keystone but also shortstop and third base as needed.

Last year, Kim slashed .260/.351/.398 with a wRC+ of 110 while swiping 38 bags in 47 attempts. That overall package was enough to earn Kim his first career Gold Glove award and even some downballot MVP votes. Coming off that strong season and a lackluster season defensively from Bogaerts, the Padres elected to switch the two entering this year to return Kim to shortstop. That seemingly set him up for what could be his third straight career year, but things didn’t play out quite that way as the infielder took a slight step back at the plate. In 121 games for the Padres this year, Kim posted a wRC+ of 101 while stealing 22 bases in 27 attempts. That down season has been further exacerbated by his shoulder woes, which have kept him from participating in the stretch run and now will remove him from San Diego’s postseason plans entirely.

Looking ahead for the Padres, it seems likely that the club will now stick with Bogaerts at shortstop headed into the postseason, as they’ve done since moving him back to the position earlier this month in response to Kim’s injury. It’s been a down season for Bogaerts overall as he’s been limited to just 110 games so far by injuries while posting a 94 wRC+ that’s his worst since 2014, but he’s managed to turn things around since returning from the injured list back in July with a solid .295/.336/.430 slash line across 259 plate appearances that’s good for a 116 wRC+. That’s opened second base up for regular starts from Jake Cronenworth, leaving first base available for a timeshare between Donovan Solano and Luis Arraez, the latter of whom also factors into the club’s DH mix alongside David Peralta on days he isn’t playing first base.

As for Kim himself, the shortstop will now head into free agency facing a new layer of uncertainty. While he’s still all but certain to decline his $8MM mutual option for next season in favor of a $2MM buyout, it’s possible that teams could be more hesitant to offer the versatile infielder a sizable multi-year deal this winter due to concerns about how his shoulder issues could impact him on both sides of the ball going forward. Kim appeared likely to be a consensus top infield option in free agency this winter behind Alex Bregman and Willy Adames, making it easy to imagine him landing a significant contract. Between his down 2024 season at the plate and now his impending surgery, however, Kim’s future seems a bit murkier than it did even a few days ago.

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Newsstand San Diego Padres Ha-Seong Kim

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Ha-Seong Kim Not Close To Return, May Require Offseason Labrum Surgery

By Anthony Franco | September 27, 2024 at 8:52pm CDT

The Padres have had to lock down a Wild Card spot without Ha-Seong Kim. The shortstop jammed his right shoulder diving into first base on a pickoff attempt on August 18. The Padres placed him on the injured list a couple days later with a diagnosis of shoulder inflammation.

San Diego initially expressed optimism it would be a short-term absence. Kim has instead been out for more than five weeks and is not on the verge of a return. Manager Mike Shildt provided a disappointing update on the Gwynn & Chris show on 97.3 The Fan in San Diego tonight (X link).

“He just hasn’t been able to get over that hump with his throwing,” Shildt said. “The hitting’s not a problem, that part’s good, but he hasn’t been able to consistently throw with anything behind it. … We’re still weighing what’s taking place, but right now, he’s not in a spot where we can count on him in the very near future.” In response to a follow-up question as to whether there’s a date at which the window for Kim to return this season officially closes, Shildt replied “there is, and we may be getting there.”

Making matters worse, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (on X) that Kim could require an offseason labrum repair. That’d be a brutal blow as he returns to free agency. The guaranteed portion of his four-year deal is coming to a close. As is the case with most players signing out of Korea or Japan, he’s eligible for free agency despite having less than six years of MLB service. Kim will decline his end of an $8MM mutual option for next season. He’ll collect a $2MM buyout and return to the market.

If healthy, he has a case for a strong four-year deal. Kim’s ability to play plus defense throughout the infield has been incredibly valuable. He stole 38 bases a season ago and has gone 22-27 on the basepaths this season. Kim doesn’t have overwhelming power, but he has gotten into double-digit home run territory in three straight years. He draws plenty of walks and rarely strikes out.

Kim hit .233/.330/.370 over 470 plate appearances during the regular season. He carries a .250/.336/.385 slash since the start of 2022. As of a couple months ago, Kim’s durability had ironically been one of his biggest selling points. This is the first time in his four MLB campaigns that he has landed on the injured list.

It’ll take at least a few more weeks to learn the impact of the injury on Kim’s free agent stock. The more immediate focus for the Padres is on their playoff infield. San Diego has kicked Xander Bogaerts back to the left side of the dirt. Jake Cronenworth has moved over to second base. That opens first base playing time for Donovan Solano and some defensive reps for primary DH Luis Arraez, with David Peralta drawing into the lineup at designated hitter while Arraez is in the field. The Padres called up Nick Ahmed last weekend to work as a defensive specialist behind Bogaerts.

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Newsstand San Diego Padres Ha-Seong Kim

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Padres Place Ha-Seong Kim On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | August 20, 2024 at 7:12pm CDT

The Padres placed Ha-Seong Kim on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 19, with right shoulder inflammation. San Diego recalled Matthew Batten to take the open spot on the active roster.

This isn’t much of a surprise after Kim left Sunday’s game with what the team initially called a jammed shoulder. The versatile infielder dove into first base on a pickoff attempt and came up in obvious pain. Manager Mike Shildt said yesterday that the team was encouraged by the initial MRI results, but they’ll nevertheless go without their shortstop for at least a week and a half. Shildt said today that the club wasn’t especially concerned and believed Kim could’ve made it back within 10 days, but the team instead decided to play things cautiously (X link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).

It marks the first injured list stint of Kim’s MLB career. The South Korea native has been exceptionally durable since signing a four-year deal going into the 2021 season. He reached the 150-game plateau in both 2022 and ’23. While that won’t happen this year, he could top 140 contests if the injury proves relatively insignificant.

Kim is having his typically solid season. He’s walking enough to compensate for fringy power and carries a league average .233/.330/.370 slash in 470 plate appearances. He has swiped 22 bases on 27 attempts. San Diego committed to Kim as a full-time shortstop this season after bouncing him around the infield during his first three years. He has better than average defensive grades in more than 1000 innings at the infield’s toughest spot. Tyler Wade is taking over at shortstop in his absence.

The 28-year-old Kim is headed back to free agency next offseason. He’ll certainly decline his end of an $8MM mutual option in favor of a $2MM buyout. Kim has a shot at another four- or five-year deal that’d come with a much stronger average annual value than the $7MM he received when he was first coming over from Korea. A serious shoulder injury could naturally impact his market value. It seems he dodged a bullet with a fairly minor issue that might only sideline him for a minimal amount of time.

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San Diego Padres Ha-Seong Kim

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Padres Notes: Kim, Tatis, De Vries

By Anthony Franco | August 19, 2024 at 9:55pm CDT

The Padres were dealt a scare yesterday when Ha-Seong Kim was forced out of their loss to the Rockies after jamming his throwing shoulder diving into first base. San Diego sent the shortstop for imaging today and came away encouraged by the initial results.

“(Early testing) seems to be mostly favorable, but there’s zero timeline to it,” manager Mike Shildt told reporters before tonight’s series opener with the Twins (via the MLB.com injury tracker). “We’re initially fairly pleased with what it looks like. We’re still gathering information.” The Friars did not place Kim on the injured list, though he’s not available for tonight’s game.

Tyler Wade drew into the lineup at shortstop tonight. He’d seemingly be the favorite for playing time if Kim requires an IL stint. Wade provides speed and defensive versatility but limited offensive upside. He entered tonight’s game with a .241/.318/.259 batting line in 134 trips to the plate. Wade only has two extra-base hits (both doubles) all season. Kim is not an impact hitter, yet he’s far more of a threat than Wade. The South Korea native has 11 homers with a roughly average .223/.330/.370 slash across 470 plate appearances.

Kim has avoided the injured list in each of his first four MLB seasons. That durability will be a major selling point for the 28-year-old when he hits free agency during the upcoming offseason. There’s technically an $8MM mutual option on his deal with San Diego, but Kim will surely decline his end in favor of a $2MM buyout and look for a longer-term deal.

If Kim does require his first MLB injured list stint, he’ll join Fernando Tatis Jr. as lineup fixtures on the shelf. Tatis has been down for nearly two months after sustaining a stress reaction in his right leg. Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote this evening that club officials have suggested Tatis could be out into the middle of next month (though there’s still no official timetable). The injury halted an All-Star campaign. Tatis was one of the most productive outfielders in the National League during the first half of the season, drilling 14 homers with a .279/.354/.468 line in 80 games.

The Friars have relied on David Peralta as their right fielder since Tatis went down. The 37-year-old veteran has been a surprisingly strong offensive contributor, running a .269/.331/.438 slash in 175 trips to the plate. Peralta is coming off a well below-average season with the Dodgers and wasn’t hitting well in Triple-A early this year.

In a bit of minor league injury news, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that top prospect Leodalis De Vries suffered a right shoulder strain that seems likely to end his season. While it’s not believed to be a long-term issue, the Low-A season only runs into the second week of September. De Vries was widely perceived as the most talented prospect in the most recent international signing class. The Dominican Republic native has only elevated his stock in the past few months, reaching Low-A while playing the entire season at age 17. The switch-hitting shortstop has turned in a .237/.361/.441 mark with 11 homers against much older competition. The Padres reportedly made him (and top catching prospect Ethan Salas) more or less untouchable at the trade deadline.

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San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. Ha-Seong Kim Leodalis De Vries

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NL Injury Notes: Kim, Marte, Nimmo

By Mark Polishuk | August 18, 2024 at 8:57pm CDT

In what might be remembered as a pivotal day in the National League postseason race, all three wild-card teams and the top club below the playoff line lost a key member of their lineup to injury.  We’ve already covered Austin Riley’s hand/wrist injury earlier tonight on MLBTR, but let’s look at some other concerning injuries for the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Mets…

  • Ha-Seong Kim will undergo an MRI after suffering what the Padres described as a jammed shoulder in today’s game.  Kim hurt himself on a dive back to first base on a pickoff attempt in the third inning, and immediately left the game in obvious discomfort.  Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Kim was briefly wearing a sling, but didn’t have the sling on when speaking with the media post-game.  “It doesn’t feel too good at the moment…But I’m just trying to stay optimistic and try to come back as soon as possible,” Kim said via his interpreter.  Taking over as the Padres’ full-time shortstop this season, Kim has delivered strong defense and roughly league-average (102 wRC+) offense, hitting .233/.330/.370 over 470 plate appearances with 11 homers and 22 stolen bases in 27 attempts.  As Sanders notes, former shortstop Xander Bogaerts, utilityman Tyler Wade, or possibly Jake Cronenworth could be candidates to take over at shortstop if Kim is facing a trip to the injured list.  In the more long-term view, Kim is also slated to hit free agency this winter.
  • Ketel Marte has been battling a sore ankle for over a week, and had to leave today’s game after aggravating the injury during a pinch-hit appearance in the ninth inning.  The Diamondbacks sat Marte for three games earlier this week and he wasn’t in today’s starting lineup in order to further help keep him fresh, but Marte hurt himself on a check swing during the second pitch of his at-bat off the bench.  Manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Brian Murphy and other media after the game that Marte “just needs a little bit of rest” and that “I think we’re in a good spot” with the injury, though the skipper isn’t sure when Marte will be back in the lineup.  An NL MVP candidate this season, Marte has been the driver of Arizona’s offense with 30 homers and a .298/.370/.560 slash line over an even 500 PA. Losing him for any amount of time isn’t ideal in a tight playoff race, but since the D’Backs have off-days upcoming on August 22 and 26, a 10-day IL stint now would allow for Marte to heal up while minimizing the amount of games he’d actually miss.
  • After making a diving catch and landing on his right shoulder in the seventh inning of today’s 3-2 Mets loss to the Marlins, Brandon Nimmo felt soreness in the shoulder during his at-bat in the bottom half of the frame, as he told the New York Post’s Mike Puma and other reporters.  Nimmo was replaced in left field for the eighth inning, and he’ll undergo an MRI tomorrow to determine the extent of his injury.  The outfielder missed time due to a right shoulder sprain right at the end of the 2023 season and was known for being plagued by injuries earlier in his career, but Nimmo has been quite durable over the last three years, playing in 419 of a possible 448 games since Opening Day 2022.  Despite some very streaky production at the plate this season, Nimmo still has a 119 wRC+ from a .229/.343/.414 slash line, 11 stolen bases, and 18 homers, including a long ball in today’s game before his injury.  With Starling Marte just back from the IL today, New York’s outfield was seemingly back at full strength, but now Jesse Winker, Tyrone Taylor, and Jeff McNeil could all be cycled into left field if Nimmo has to visit the injured list himself.
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Arizona Diamondbacks New York Mets Notes San Diego Padres Brandon Nimmo Ha-Seong Kim Ketel Marte

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2024-25 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Steve Adams | April 15, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The season is underway, which makes this a good time to look ahead to next winter with the first installment of the 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings! It’s an annual series here at MLBTR, wherein we try to rank the upcoming class of free agents by measure of their estimated earning power.

MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season. Season performance will start to influence these rankings, but two to three weeks into the season, it’s not a huge factor. By the end time the season draws to a close, however, 2024 results will weigh heavily into the rankings. A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. I worked with colleagues Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald as well as MLBTR founder and owner Tim Dierkes for the first installment of this year’s rankings. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

Statistics are up-to-date through April 12.

* denotes players who are ineligible for a qualifying offer

1. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees

Were it not for Shohei Ohtani reaching the open market a year sooner, Soto might have a claim to the most coveted free agent ever. Because he skyrocketed through the minor leagues and took MLB by storm beginning at age 19, Soto’s final year of arbitration eligibility comes in just his age-25 campaign. He’ll play the entirety of his first free agent season at 26 years of age. For some context, Aaron Judge — who re-signed on a nine-year, $360MM contract with the Yankees upon reaching free agency — debuted at 24 and had 773 big league plate appearances heading into his own age-26 season.

Soto is a freak of nature who was one of MLB’s best hitters at an age when most top prospects are still in college or just entering the low minors. He hit .292/.406/.517 as a teenage rookie in 2018, and his preternatural plate discipline, bat-to-ball skills and raw power have only improved since. Through more than 3400 career plate appearances, Soto has walked at a staggering 18.9% clip and struck out in just 17% of his plate appearances. He entered the current season with 160 home runs, and while he’s never had a 40-homer campaign before, a move to Yankee Stadium and its notorious short porch in right field could help him get to 200 long balls before he turns 26.

Since his 2018 debut, Soto leads qualified big leaguers with a mammoth .422 on-base percentage. Mike Trout’s .415 mark ranks second, and Freddie Freeman (.402) is the only other hitter north of .400. Soto is “only” 16th in home runs in that time, but his 154 wRC+ — which indicates he’s been 54% better than an average hitter after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment — is tied with Mookie Betts for fourth-best in baseball, trailing only Trout, Yordan Alvarez and Judge.

If there’s one wart to Soto’s game, it’s that he’s limited to the outfield corners and isn’t regarded as an especially strong defender. He’s had seasons with positive grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, but on the whole he has negative marks from both in his career — both in left field and in right field. That said, he’s also only had two truly *bad* seasons per both of those metrics, and taken in totality, he sits around -2 DRS and -4 OAA per season. Obviously, that’s not great, but it’s also not exactly egregious. And given the otherworldly contributions he makes at the plate, playing a slightly below-average left or right field is more than an even trade-off.

Soto famously rejected a 14-year, $440MM extension offer from the Nationals before being traded to the Padres. Rejecting an offer of that magnitude led to plenty of jaws dropping, but when considering that it included his three final arbitration seasons and 11 free agent years, it’s not as jarring as it seems at first blush. Soto wound up earning $71.1MM over those three seasons, meaning he really “only” needs to earn $370MM or so in free agency to come out ahead. There’s already talk of a potential $500MM free-agent deal for Soto. Barring a catastrophic injury, he’ll likely come out ahead in that bet on himself. He’s the clear No. 1 free agent on next year’s market and will be one of the most sought-after free agents not only in baseball history but in all of professional sports.

2. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Orioles

Since his 2020 breakout, Burnes ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched, eighth in strikeout rate, fourth in K-BB%, second in opponents’ batting average, fifth in ERA, second in FIP and third in SIERA. Put another way — regardless of which metric you prefer to judge pitchers, Burnes ranks in the top-eight in just about any metric. He’s a bona fide No. 1 starter — very arguably one of the five best pitchers the sport has to offer at the moment.

Detractors might point to Burnes’ 2023 numbers as the potential beginning of a decline. His 3.39 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate were all more “very good” than elite. Through three starts in Baltimore, he’s trending back in the other direction. Small sample caveats obviously apply, but Burnes has opened his first season with his new club on a tear, tossing 18 2/3 innings of 1.93 ERA ball with a 28.6% strikeout rate and superlative 2.9% walk rate. His velocity is as strong as ever; his devastating cutter is averaging 95.1 mph — an exact match for his career-best mark, set back in 2021 when he won the National League Cy Young Award.

Burnes won’t turn 30 until October. He’s never been on the injured list due to an arm issue. His only IL stints were due to an oblique strain and Covid. Burnes might not be quite as dominant as he was when he was striking out more than 35% of his opponents from 2020-21, but he’s a workhorse ace and former Cy Young winner who still ranks among the game’s elite arms. Gerrit Cole’s nine-year deal with the Yankees began in his age-29 season. Teams have generally been wary of committing to long-term deals for pitchers that span beyond their age-37 season (though there are exceptions, as evidenced by Jacob deGrom’s current five-year deal).

Burnes is dominant enough that he could prove to be an exception, but even if he’s limited to eight-year terms, he’ll have a chance at surpassing a $250MM guarantee. With a big enough year, nine years and/or $300MM+ could be on the table.

3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros

Bregman would’ve hit free agency in the 2022-23 offseason were it not for a five-year, $100MM extension he signed upon first reaching arbitration. That locked in his first — but very likely not his last — nine-figure contract and still allowed him to hit the open market at a fairly standard point, heading into his age-31 season.

There’s perhaps a perception that Bregman is declining or trending in the wrong direction, as his production has dipped from the MVP-caliber levels he displayed in 2018-19. He also doesn’t have the most appealing batted-ball profile, which we saw work to Cody Bellinger’s detriment in free agency this offseason. Bregman’s 88.6 mph average exit velocity and 38.2% hard-hit rate in 2023 were both pretty pedestrian marks.

One key difference between Bregman and Bellinger, however, is that Bregman has never had gaudy Statcast numbers — even when he was putting up the type of numbers that led to consecutive All-Star nods and top-five MVP finishes in 2018-19. Bellinger, on the other hand, previously had top-of-the-scale exit velo and hard-hit numbers, leading to more questions about whether his resurgent 2023 showing was truly sustainable.

Bregman has always possessed sensational contact skills. He’s never fanned at higher than a 15.5% clip in a full season. The former No. 2 overall draft pick legitimately possesses one of the best hit tools in all of baseball. He couples that with elite plate discipline, too; Bregman has walked at a 12.6% clip in his career and a 13.7% rate dating back to 2018. He’s walked more than he’s struck out in four individual seasons and in the aggregate from 2018-24. His 41-homer campaign from 2019 looks like a clear outlier in what’s now known as the juiced-ball season, but Bregman still popped 48 homers from 2022-23.

Some may question how much power he can manufacture following a potential change of scenery. Minute Maid Park’s short porch in left field — the Crawford Boxes — seems practically tailor-made for Bregman’s fly-ball heavy, pull-side approach. (Or, perhaps alternatively, he reworked his swing to take advantage of that quirk in his home park.)

There’s little doubting that he’s had some home runs that are Crawford Box specials over the years, but a look at Bregman’s career splits don’t paint the picture of someone who is a product of his hitter-friendly home environment. Bregman’s a career .273/.377/.473 hitter in Houston and a .275/.368/.498 hitter on the road. He’s actually hit nine more homers on the road in his career despite having only 64 more plate appearances away from Minute Maid Park than at home.

Defensively, Bregman isn’t an elite third baseman, but he’s posted average or better marks in DRS and OAA nearly every season of his career. There’s no reason to expect a position change in the near future, but if he does need to move off the hot corner at some point, a shift to second base, left field or first base seems feasible for the former shortstop. And as someone who’s been 36% better than average at the plate in his career — and 25% better dating back to 2020 — he has more than enough bat to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond.

A seven- or eight-year deal seems plausible in free agency, and there’s always the chance that a luxury-paying team will gauge his interest in a longer-term deal with a non-premium AAV in order to tamp down the CBT hit. A deal north of $200MM seems plausible for Bregman. The Astros have said at multiple points in the past they’ll make an extension offer at some point, but there haven’t been serious talks on that front yet and Bregman can justifiably seek the type of long-term pact that owner Jim Crane has completely avoided over the years.

4. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

The Polar Bear is raw personified, bashing 40-plus homers on the regular since his 2019 debut. Alonso has not only established himself as one of baseball’s premier sluggers — he’s done so while maintaining a strikeout rate that’s lower than the league average. At a time when many prodigious sluggers are comfortable selling out for power, Alonso has the type of easy, plus-plus power that doesn’t require him to do so. He’s fanned in just 20.7% of his plate appearances dating back to 2021 and popped the fifth-most long balls in baseball along the way. He trails only Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani in that span. All four of those sluggers have whiffed at higher rates than Alonso.

Alonso’s extreme fly-ball approach does lead to a glut of pop-ups and some low BABIPs — though last year’s bottom-of-the-barrel .205 average on balls in play (and .217 average overall) were likely outliers. He’s a career .250 hitter who walks at around a 10% clip — enough to boost his OBP into the .340 range most seasons. Paired with his prodigious power, that’s plenty to make Alonso one of the most feared hitters in the National League.

After debuting as a 24-year-old back in 2019, Alonso is on pace to hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. He’s not unusually young like Soto but is reaching free agency at the same point that’s seen plenty of sluggers get paid. He’ll be two years younger than Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt were when signing their current contracts (Freeman’s in free agency, Goldschmidt’s as an extension). That pair of contracts pays those star first basemen $26-27MM annually.

Alonso isn’t as good a pure hitter as either Freeman or Goldschmidt, nor is he the same defensively. He’s consistently graded out as a sub-par defender, per OAA, and a roughly average first baseman by measure of DRS. But Alonso is younger, has more power than either of those two former MVPs, and has the benefit of Mets owner Steve Cohen likely being extra-motivated to keep his franchise slugger. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Alonso follow a similar path to Judge. That’s not to say he’ll sign a $360MM deal — he won’t — but he could reject a qualifying offer, explore what the market has to offer, and then take the top offer back to the Mets and effectively ask that they match it.

A six-year deal would run through Alonso’s age-35 season. Seven years would take him through age-36. Either of those terms feels plausible, as does an AAV in the vicinity of — or even slightly in excess of — the Freeman and Goldschmidt deals.

5. Blake Snell, LHP, Giants*

Will the second time prove to be a charm for Snell? The $200MM+ contract he sought in free agency this past winter never materialized, likely due to a confluence of factors. Beyond the sheer scope of his ask, Snell hit free agency at a time when roughly half the league was experiencing uncertainty regarding its long-term television status. We’re also slated for a record number of CBT payors, including several big spenders — Yankees, Dodgers, Mets — currently paying a 110% tax that made a long-term deal for Snell wholly unpalatable. Further yet, recent high-profile spenders like the Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mets all took steps back in terms of their aggression.

None of that even touches on Snell’s command troubles, though his penchant for issuing free passes hasn’t stopped him from dominating opposing lineups over the past several seasons. Snell is now a two-time Cy Young winner — one of just 22 in MLB history — who’ll spend the 2024 season pitching in an even more spacious home park than he enjoyed in San Diego.

Snell will turn 32 in the coming offseason, so he won’t have age on his side. But he already rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres, meaning he’s ineligible to receive another one at any point in his career. That lack of draft pick compensation will be a bonus, and it’s possible next offseason’s market will bear more favorable circumstances. If the Mets, Red Sox, Rangers or Padres begin spending again and if even a couple of CBT payors are suddenly in position to dip back under the threshold, Snell could find more suitors this time around.

He’s not a lock to hit the market, of course. Snell’s two-year $62MM deal with the Giants allows him to opt out at season’s end, leaving a $30MM player option on the table. So long as he remains healthy and effective, he’ll be a lock to do so. The left-hander ranks 11th in ERA (3.05) and seventh in strikeout rate (31.7%) among qualified big league starters dating back to the 2018 season. He’s had a couple rough seasons along the way, but the broader body of work is genuinely excellent.

As previously mentioned, teams are typically wary of committing beyond a starting pitcher’s age-37 season. For Snell, hitting the market at 32, that’d make it tough to secure a contract lengthier than six years. A six-year deal checking in at $28MM or more would allow Snell to still claim that he topped $200MM in free agent earnings (when combined with his current $32MM in earnings). That type of offer seemingly wasn’t there this time around, but if Snell turns in a third straight dominant season — he had a 2.72 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 2022-23 — someone’s likely going to pony up with a big offer.

6. Max Fried, LHP, Braves

Few starters in baseball have been as consistent as Fried on a year-to-year basis. The former No. 7 overall draft pick has turned in a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons, with the lone exception being a 3.04 mark in 2021. Fried’s strikeout rate has fallen between 22.3% and 25.7% for five straight seasons. His walk rates in that time have landed between 4.4% and 8.5% (though that 8.5% came in 2020’s short season and is something of an outlier, he’s been under 7% in every other full season). His ground-ball rate sits between 51.2% and 57.7% each year.

Fried isn’t an overpowering ace in the sense that he hits triple digits with his heater and strikes out a third of his opponents. He has above-average but not elite velocity, leading to average or slightly better strikeout rates. However, Fried has plus command and ground-ball tendencies, and he dodges hard contact at consistently excellent levels.

Prior to the 2023 season, Fried was also quite durable, ranking 19th in the majors in innings pitched and 21st in games started. That doesn’t include his 10 postseason starts (and four relief outings) — a total of 58 2/3 additional innings. A forearm strain suffered in early May last year, however, knocked Fried out of action for about three months. Though he was characteristically excellent when health — 2.55 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 3.38 SIERA — Fried was limited to 14 starts and 77 2/3 innings.

Proving that forearm strain is behind him will be paramount to his free agent platform. Another 30-plus starts won’t completely eliminate any trepidation stemming from last year’s injury, but another season with considerable missed time — particularly due to an arm injury of any nature — would create cause for clear concern.

Fried has been more durable than Carlos Rodon (six years, $162MM with the Yankees) and has a far lengthier track record of success. He and his reps will likely take aim at toppling that mark in free agency. Braves fans would surely like to see an extension, but it hasn’t happened in the past, and Fried is plenty justified in asking for the type of long-term deal and semi-premium AAV that the Braves have steered clear of in recent years. He seems likelier to follow Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson out the door than he does to receive an extension offer that’s commensurate with his market value.

7. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Cubs*

Bellinger didn’t get the mega-deal he sought this past offseason. Excellent as his 2023 campaign was, there were surely teams wary of his woeful 2021-22 showing on the heels of shoulder surgery. Beyond that, his exit velocity, hard-hit rate and other batted-ball metrics were decidedly pedestrian.

Agent Scott Boras has pointed to Bellinger’s massive decline in strikeout rate as a factor, painting his client as a hitter who adopted a two-strike approach more focused on putting the ball in play than on doing massive damage. There’s surely a blend of truth and garden-variety agent spin woven into that defense.

A repeat of his 2023 production — or anything close to it — would strengthen Bellinger’s case immensely. It’d further distance him from that awful 2021-22 showing, lending further credence to the notion that injuries played a significant role in his perceived decline. And whether Bellinger replicates his numbers by returning to his maximum-damage approach or simply proves that his newer brand of more well-rounded, low-strikeout offense is sustainable, either approach should prove lucrative.

Even though an opt-out would trigger Bellinger’s third trip to free agency, he’ll still be heading into just his age-29 season next year. He can still play a fine center field (or corner outfield, presumably) and remains a good option at first base as well. There’s plenty of defensive and baserunning value to supplement his bat.

Bellinger will pocket $30MM in the first season of his three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs, meaning he’ll be opting out from two years and $50MM. That seems likely, barring a 2021-22-esque collapse or a massive injury. Because of his age, that immense long-term deal that eluded him this past offseason still feels plausible. That he can no longer be saddled with a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last offseason — only strengthens his case.

8. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers

Adames joins Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Dansby Swanson as the latest in a line of high-end shortstops to reach free agency heading into his age-29 season. That trio signed for respective guarantees of $140MM (Tigers), $140MM (Red Sox) and $177MM (Cubs). Adames doesn’t have the individual accolades that group possesses. He’s never been an All-Star like each of that trio has. He hasn’t won Gold Gloves like Swanson and Baez. He hasn’t won the Silver Sluggers that Story has.

Yet despite the lack of hardware, Adames has a strong claim to be valued in similar fashion. It’s true that he had a down year at the plate in 2023, but that was in part driven by a career-low .250 average on balls in play. Since 2020, Adames is a .240/.316/.450 hitter. He’s been 8% better than average overall, by measure of wRC+, and he peaked with a 121 wRC+ (21% better than average) from 2020-21. Adames fanned at a sky-high 36.1% back in 2020 but has reduced that mark considerably; over his past 1300 plate appearances he’s punched out at a worse-than-average but far more manageable 26.2% rate. He struggled badly against lefties early in his career (despite being a right-handed hitter) but has improved against them in recent seasons.

From 2021-23, Adames averaged 26.67 homers per season — topping out at 31 round-trippers in 2022. He’s walked at an above-average but not elite 9.4% rate in his career — including a personal-best 11.1% in 2023. Adames has long been touted as having plus defensive tools, but his execution and consistency were lackluster early on, leading to some middling grades. Over the past two seasons he’s been outstanding, tallying 17 DRS and a flat-out elite 26 OAA.

If Adames can bounce back from last year’s .217/.310/.407 line and turn in something closer to the .251/.319/.471 slash he logged from 2020-22, he’ll have an easy case to be paid comparably to Story, Baez and Swanson. He’s likely to hit the market on the heels of four straight 20-homer campaigns. He’s a plus defender. He’s relatively young. He’s not the most consistent hitter on a year-over-year basis, but that was true of Baez, Story and Swanson. They all got paid. Adames will also draw bonus points for his gregarious personality and leadership skills. Both the Rays and Brewers have lauded him in that regard, and the primary reason Tampa Bay traded him — Wander Franco’s looming emergence — now looks regrettable (even if getting Drew Rasmussen in return for him has yielded plenty of value).

9. Ha-Seong Kim, SS/2B, Padres

Kim came to MLB with great fanfare as a 25-year-old KBO superstar who’d been posted by the Kiwoom Heroes. He signed a four-year, $28MM deal with San Diego that contains a mutual option for a fifth season. Mutual options are generally accounting measures and are almost never exercised by both parties. In Kim’s instance, it’s a no-brainer to decline his end of the option and hit free agency in search of a deal that could pay him three to four times his original MLB guarantee.

While Kim’s rookie season didn’t live up to the hype, he’s since acclimated to MLB quite nicely. Now 28, he posted a .256/.338/.391 batting line (109 wRC+) from 2022-23. His power has increased in each MLB season, resulting in a career-high 17 homers last year, and he swiped a hefty 38 bases in 47 tries for the Friars last season. Kim’s walk rate has climbed every MLB season as well, topping out at a robust 12% in 2023, and after fanning in 23.8% of his plate appearances as a rookie he’s dropped that mark to 18.5% in 2022-23.

Decent power, strong on-base skills and plus speed give Kim plenty of appeal, but his glove is perhaps his greatest selling point. Kim is an elite defensive infielder capable of handling any of second base, shortstop or third base. He won his first Gold Glove for his play at second base last season, though that’s unlikely to be his last. (He also won a Gold Glove in his final three seasons of KBO play.)

There’s no defensive metric that pegs Kim below average at any of those three positions. He’s logged more than 1000 innings at second base, nearly 600 at third base and more than 1600 at shortstop. Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating agree that he’s excellent at all three. The Padres signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract and moved him to second base just one year later despite Bogaerts posting decent numbers at short in 2023. Kim has racked up 23 DRS and 10 OAA in his 1600+ innings at shortstop. He has fluid infield actions, sure hands and is a regular source of highlight-reel defense.

Kim doesn’t have a strong batted-ball profile, but it’s not out of the question that he could crack 20 homers, walk in more than 10% of his plate appearances, swipe 40 bags and play Gold Glove defense this season. He’ll play all of the 2025 season at 29 years old. A nine-figure contract isn’t out of the question.

10. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Diamondbacks

As the old adage goes, if at first you don’t succeed — hire a new agent and try again. Montgomery languished in free agency all winter, never landing the six- or seven-year contract he was seeking. He took a one-year, $25MM deal with the D-backs that’ll afford him a player option at $20-25MM basically just for staying healthy. The contract wasn’t finalized before Opening Day, meaning Montgomery can’t receive a qualifying offer this winter. Barring a major injury, he’ll likely decline that player option and return to the market.

Montgomery, 31, has made at least 30 starts in each of the past three seasons. In that time, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with a 22.5% strikeout rate, a 6.2% walk rate, a 44.5% ground-ball rate and just 1.00 HR/9. His 2023 campaign was the finest of his career, featuring a personal-best 188 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, plus another 31 innings of 2.90 ERA ball in the postseason — a strong performance that helped push the Rangers to their first-ever World Series title.

Though he doesn’t miss bats at an elite level, Montgomery is better than average in just about every meaningful category for starting pitchers and has been a workhorse since his 2020 return from Tommy John surgery. We at MLBTR erred in thinking a six-year deal was attainable heading into the 2023-24 offseason. Another typical Montgomery season could put him in position for a strong four-year or perhaps a five-year deal at a lighter AAV than we predicted last offseason. He should be able to top teammate Eduardo Rodriguez’s four-year, $80MM contract — and a deal in the $100-110MM range over five years doesn’t feel out of reach if Monty continues at his recent trajectory.

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Walker Buehler, Matt Chapman*, Gerrit Cole^, Jack Flaherty, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Frankie Montas, Tyler O’Neill, Luis Severino, Max Scherzer*, Gleyber Torres, Justin Verlander*, Christian Walker

^=Cole is currently on the 60-day IL and expected to be out into June. He can opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his contract at season’s end, though if he signals his intent to do so, the Yankees can override his opt-out by tacking on a tenth year at another $36MM. Because Cole is currently injured and because the Yankees can effectively veto his opt-out, we’re not including him on the initial version of our rankings. If, as the season wears on, he’s pitching well enough to trigger that opt-out and there’s talk of the Yankees allowing him to walk, he could land on future installments of the list.

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2024-25 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings MLBTR Originals Newsstand Alex Bregman Blake Snell Cody Bellinger Corbin Burnes Ha-Seong Kim Jordan Montgomery Juan Soto Max Fried Pete Alonso Willy Adames

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Padres To Move Xander Bogaerts To Second Base

By Darragh McDonald | February 16, 2024 at 1:00pm CDT

Padres manager Mike Shildt told members of the media today that Xander Bogaerts will be moving from shortstop to second base, with Dennis Lin of The Athletic among those to relay the news. Ha-Seong Kim will cross the bag in the other direction to take over the shortstop position.

It was just a little over a year ago that the Padres signed Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM contract. At the time, it was a bit of a puzzling fit on the club’s roster. Fernando Tatis Jr. was supposed to be the franchise shortstop once upon a time. In February of 2021, he and the Friars agreed to a historic 14-year, $340MM extension to keep him on the club for the bulk of his career. He ended up missing the 2022 season both due to injuries and a PED suspension, but he was expected back early in 2023. While he was out, Kim provided excellent glovework at the position.

Going into 2023, there was a bit of uncertainty. Tatis was coming off an entirely missed season and the club was thinking about moving him to the outfield. But even if that scenario, they still had Kim to cover short. It wasn’t really expected that they would head into the offseason looking for a mega deal but they landed Bogaerts nonetheless.

Bogaerts’ first year in San Diego resulted in fairly typical offensive production for him. He hit 19 home runs and slashed .285/.350/.440 for a wRC+ of 120. Defensively, Outs Above Average gave him a positive grade of +3 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at -4. He has long been considered a candidate to move off of shortstop, even as a prospect, and it seems the time has now come. For his career, his tallies at short are -31 OAA and -54 DRS.

In the short term, the move is probably best for the 2024 version of the Padres, as Kim is excellent with the glove. He has played 1,505 1/3 innings at short in the majors, just over a full season’s worth. In that time, he’s tallied 22 DRS and 7 OAA. Having him at short and Bogaerts at second should give the club a great middle infield, as even mediocre shortstops often provide solid defense on the other side of the bag.

But taking the wide view, the decision making from the Padres becomes questionable. Twice now in recent years they have given around $300MM to a shortstop on a deal longer than a decade, and now neither will be playing short. Tatis, who has now been moved to right field, is under contract through 2034 and Bogaerts through 2033. Kim is set to become a free agent after 2024, as his deal has a mutual option for 2025 and those provisions are almost never triggered by both parties.

Assuming Kim reaches free agency a year from now, the club will then be looking for a solution at short for 2025 and beyond. They could always move Bogaerts again but he’ll be 32 years old by then and his abilities at that position will only be trending downwards with age. One of the club’s top prospects, Jackson Merrill, is a shortstop who reached Double-A last year. He could perhaps be a solution at that spot down the road but he is reportedly coming into camp as an outfielder, with the club trying to get creative in covering the spots vacated by trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. He could move back to short in 2025 but that might be a bit tricky if he spends this year in the outfield with the big league club instead of getting reps in Triple-A.

The Soto/Grisham deal was necessary because the club is paring back spending this winter. That’s partially a result of their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group falling apart but also connected to their extreme aggression in recent years, which includes giving a massive deal to a shortstop they didn’t really need.

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Padres Have Shown Interest In Sal Frelick

By Darragh McDonald | February 15, 2024 at 6:42pm CDT

The Padres are known to be on the lookout for outfield help and spoke to the Brewers about Sal Frelick at some point, per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

The San Diego offseason has largely been defined by financial concerns. The club’s aggressive spending in past offseasons, as well as the collapse of their TV deal with Diamond Sports group, left them having to cut payroll this winter. The largest chunk that they cut out of their spending was when they traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for several young pitchers. Soto eventually agreed to a $31MM salary in his final arbitration year and Grisham agreed at $5.5MM.

The Friars have since signed a few relievers but the payroll is well down. Roster Resource has them at $159MM in terms of pure payroll and $216MM in terms of the competitive balance tax, the wide disparity owing to some backloaded deals, since the CBT is calculated by a contract’s average annual value. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Padres had an Opening Day payroll of $249MM last year, which they are now significantly below. The club reportedly prefers to keep their CBT under the $237MM threshold, giving them about $20MM of wiggle room, which tracks with recent reporting that the club has about $20-30MM left to spend this offseason.

But they still have many holes to fill. The rotation could use another arm or maybe two. There’s room for a designated hitter or potent bench bat type, while the two outfield vacancies still remain. The club recently re-signed Jurickson Profar, but he would be best served to be in a bench/utility role rather than an everyday player.

Given the number of spots to fill and the tight budget, the club has naturally explored cheap external options. It was reported last week that the club had interest of Jarren Duran of the Red Sox. Both he and Frelick are still in their pre-arbitration years, meaning they could potentially provide the Padres with many years of cheap control. However, the flip side is that the acquisition cost in terms of players heading the other way would naturally be higher.

Frelick, 24 in April, made his MLB debut last year and generally performed well. His 16.6% strikeout rate was well below league average and his 12.2% walk rate a few ticks above. He only hit three home runs in his 57 games, but his .246/.341/.351 slash line still got him close to league average overall, a 92 wRC+. He also stole seven bases without being caught while getting strong grades for his glovework. He produced six Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average in that brief showing last year, while also getting a mark of 4.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

In addition to that promising debut, he also carries prospect pedigree with him. He was selected by the Brewers with the 15th overall pick in 2021 and was been considered a top 100 prospect while pushing towards the big leagues. Even though his power impact is considered limited, he is still expected to be a viable gap hitter who provides value via his on-base abilities, speed and defense. If the power were to develop later as he matures, that would only improve the equation.

It’s understandable that the Padres would be interested in such a player, as he is clearly talented and also comes with six cheap years of control. That also makes him attractive to the Brewers, however, and they are undoubtedly setting a high asking price.

It’s possible they have some openness to a deal based on their roster, as they have plenty of other outfielders on hand. Prospect Jackson Chourio could be in the picture this year after signing an $82MM extension. Christian Yelich is still a regular in left. Frelick would be in the mix for playing time alongside players like Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins and Chris Roller. It’s possible to subtract Frelick from there and still have a decent outfield. Frelick, Wiemer and Mitchell are all glove-first types but Chourio is expected to cover center field for years to come, so perhaps they would be better off trading someone from that group and getting a typical power bat to put into a corner.

It’s unclear when these talks took place or if anything got close. Despite their recent Corbin Burnes trade, the Brewers aren’t tanking, as they targeted MLB-ready pieces in that deal and have spent money on players like Rhys Hoskins, Gary Sánchez and Jakob Junis. If they were to consider any kind of Frelick trade, they would likely be looking for players who could help them compete in 2024. Whether the Padres have the pieces to get that done, and the willingness to give them up, remains to be seen.

Elsewhere in Padres’ notes, Lin adds that it’s unclear if Ha-Seong Kim would be eligible for a qualifying offer if traded between the Padres’ Seoul Series and the resumption of their season. Players are normally ineligible for a qualifying offer if traded midseason. The Padres have an unusual start to their schedule, with two games in Seoul against the Dodgers March 20 and 21, then a gap until they play the Giants on the league-wide Opening Day of March 28 in San Diego.

Kim is an impending free agent, as his deal has a mutual option for 2025 but those provisions are almost never picked up by both sides. With the Padres looking to cut some costs, Kim’s name has popped up in trade rumors. The Padres could move Jake Cronenworth back to second base and then use the money saved by trading Kim to find first base help. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that they may prefer to hold off on such a deal until after the Seoul Series so that Kim can play in front of the fans of his home country.

But taking such a path may not allow them to market a future QO to a trading partner. Hypothetically, a team acquiring Kim might plan on making him a QO at season’s end and recouping some the value that they gave in the trade. Such a situation has never previously occurred and Lin reports that MLB and the MLBPA would have to discuss it if it came to pass, which would seem to muddy the waters a bit on a possible trade.

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