Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Ichiro, Garza, Greinke, Bell
On this date two years ago, the Mariners named former Brewers vice president Jack Zduriencik as their new general manager. His defense-heavy approach resulted in a 24 win increase in his first season at the helm, though team scoring dropped by 31 runs. The Mariners won just 61 games and scored a mere 513 runs in 2010, the fewest by any team in the DH era. Unsurprisingly, there's already talk that Jack Z. is on the hot seat.
These links don't have to worry about being on the hot seat, they've made this week's edition of BBWI…
- Speaking of the Mariners, Prospect Insider discusses the possibility of trading Ichiro.
- DRays Bay speculates about what the Rays could get in return for Matt Garza.
- Meanwhile, The Process Report looks ahead to Tampa's 2011 bullpen.
- The Tao Of Stieb wonders if the Blue Jays should get involved in trade talks for Zack Greinke.
- Redleg Nation asks the same Greinke question for the Reds.
- The Friarhood debates whether the Padres should trade or extend Heath Bell.
- Disciples of Uecker re-lives the history of Nelson Cruz.
- Monkey With A Halo reviews Angels GM Tony Reagins' 2010 moves.
- Royals Review wonders if Robinson Tejeda turned the corner in 2010.
- Yankeeist breaks down Cliff Lee as he approaches his massive payday.
- River Ave. Blues writes that Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood have gone from spare parts to important pieces for the Yankees.
- Cubs Packs wants to know if Jim Hendry can fix the team's bullpen.
- 1 Blue Jays Way offers up a quick take on Toronto's options.
- The Hardball Times looks at some players whose best position is DH.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Heath Bell Hopes For Three-Year Deal
Heath Bell’s good at what he does and he’d like some job security. The Padres closer, who received MLB's Delivery Man of the Year award this week, told Dan Hayes of the North County Times that he’d like a multi-year deal from the Padres this offseason.
"Three years is perfect," Bell said. "I don't expect more because I'm an older guy."
Bell, who earned $4MM this year, hits free agency after next season. The subject of near-constant trade rumors, Bell says he’s “optimistic” that Padres GM Jed Hoyer will hold onto him. The Padres can keep Bell for 2011 even if they don't offer him an extension.
If the Padres decide to part with the big 33-year-old, they’d likely find a number of suitors. Bell posted a 1.93 ERA with 47 saves last year and made the All-Star team for the second consecutive season. Armed with a mid-90s fastball and a curve, Bell posted 11.1 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 last year, anchoring the Padres’ strong ‘pen.
Padres Notes: Gonzalez, Bell, Tejada, Coaches
Earlier tonight we learned that the Padres will not pick up Chris Young's $8.5MM option for 2011 and that GM Jed Hoyer will meet with Adrian Gonzalez's agent in the coming weeks, but MLB.com's Corey Brock brings us some more rumors. Let's dive in…
- Hoyer confirmed that the team will exercise Gonzalez's $6.2MM option for next season when the time comes. There was never a doubt about this one. He also mentioned that they will listen to trade offers for their star player during the winter.
- They will also listen to offers for closer Heath Bell, who figures to earn a nice raise after pulling down $4MM in 2010. "I haven't made any definitive decisions, but we are a better team with [Gonzalez and Bell] than without them," Hoyer said. "I'm sort of in the never-say-never category. In this business, the job is to make the team and the organization as good as it can be."
- Hoyer indicated that he would be open to bringing Miguel Tejada back, but not at the $6MM salary he earned in 2010. The 36-year-old hit .268/.317/.413 with eight homers in 253 plate appearances after being acquired at the deadline, and he even moved back to his natural position of shortstop for all but four games.
- Bench coach Ted Simmons will not return next season as he looks for a managerial job. First base coach Rick Renteria could replace him, but he is expected to interview for some manager jobs himself. Hitting coach Randy Ready is in the same boat as Renteria.
Padres Could Put Bell Back On Trade Market
The Padres' late-season collapse has no doubt been tough to take for San Diego fans, but it could get even tougher when and if the Friars revert to their cost-effective ways. San Diego's unexpected playoff push extended Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell's stays with the club, and while the Padres have no ready answer to replace Gonzalez at first base, their deep bullpen may lead to Bell's departure.
ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that San Diego "will at least consider" dealing Bell and installing Mike Adams as the closer going into 2011. Bell agreed to a one-year, $4MM deal last winter to avoid arbitration, but Olney predicts that Bell could earn in the range of $6-$8MM next year, when he hits arbitration for the final time. The Padres have the payroll space to pay Bell that much if they wanted to (as Cot's Baseball Contracts notes, the Friars have a measly $1.1MM committed to players for next season), but that type of outlay on a closer is a luxury that small-market teams usually can't afford.
Adams, meanwhile, made $1MM this season and is entering his second arbitration year. After posting a 1.84 ERA, a 10.2 K/9 rate and a 3.78 K/BB ratio over his three years in San Diego, Adams is sure to earn a nice raise, but it will still fall below Bell's $4MM earnings from this season. If the Pads were to offer Adams a two-year contract worth $5.5MM, Adams would probably accept to gain a bit of security in case he struggles finishing games. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith recently looked at how Adams' contract situation compared to that of Oakland's Michael Wuertz.
Bell is no stranger to the trade market. His name popped up in multiple rumors when Joe Nathan was injured last spring and was even whispered to be on the block at the July trade deadline when San Diego was in first place. If the Padres shop him around again this winter, the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Angels and Rays are a few of the clubs who could be looking for a proven closer. The Braves and Cardinals could also be added to that list if Billy Wagner and Ryan Franklin both retire.
Extension Candidate: Carlos Marmol
Carlos Marmol and the Cubs agreed to a one-year, $2.125MM contract last February as the reliever and club avoided a hearing in Marmol's first arbitration season. The deal gave Marmol almost four times what he earned in 2009, and he'll be up for another big raise this winter whether he and the Cubs work out another one-year deal or if they pursue a longer-term option.
Marmol took over as Chicago's closer midway through the 2009 season, but his control problems made some wonder whether Marmol could last in the role. While Marmol is still walking more batters than the Cubs would like (a 6.1 BB/9 rate), it's still an improvement over the 7.9 BB/9 rate that he posted last year. More importantly, Marmol has also improved his ERA, WHIP, hits/9 rate and K/BB ratio from 2009, and upped his already-impressive 11.3 K/9 rate last season to a whopping 15.9 K/9 in 2010. His 62 games finished are also the most in baseball.
Should the Cubs wish to pursue a one-year deal with Marmol again, Heath Bell's one-year, $4MM deal with the Padres last winter is a suitable model. Bell, like Marmol, was coming off his first season as his team's closer and delivered an All-Star performance. Bell's 2009 and Marmol's 2010 were pretty similarly impressive — Bell had the better K/BB ratio, BB/9 and WHIP, while Marmol has the superior K/9 rate, HR/9, hits/9, and has already thrown more innings. Bell did have the advantage of pitching at PETCO Park, so between that and inflation, Marmol has an argument that he should earn closer to $5MM than $4MM.
In terms of a multi-year option, Marmol and agent Barry Praver will look at Brian Wilson's two-year, $15MM extension with San Francisco as a starting point. While Wilson has certainly pitched well enough this season to lower some of the eyebrows that were raised when he signed that extension last winter, the Cubs may hesitate to commit that much money to Marmol given his still-present control issues. It should be noted, however, that even with Marmol's 2009 wildness, he still put up a 3.41 ERA and held opposing batters to a .170 average, so it's not like he pitched poorly. If Marmol's 2011 season is akin to his 2009, it would still be a campaign that the Cubs wouldn't feel sick about paying around $7.5MM to keep.
Given Marmol's high ceiling, the Cubs might be wise to shoot for an option-heavy contract similar to the one that their ex-closer Kevin Gregg received from the Blue Jays last winter. Gregg received $2.75MM for 2010, and the Jays can pick up a 2011 option for $4.5MM or an option for both 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75MM. Obviously Toronto was able to get such a team-friendly deal since Gregg struggled in 2009, but if the Cubs double the dollar amounts, Marmol might accept the cost-certainty. The last option year (that would theoretically cover Marmol's first free agent year) could be adjusted to a mutual option, giving Marmol the ability to walk away after 2012 if he thinks there's an eight-figure offer on the market. If Marmol keeps up his form from the last four seasons, such an offer would certainly exist.
Chicago already has approximately $103MM committed to next year's payroll, and that's not counting the pay bump that Geovany Soto (an extension candidate himself) will get in his first year of arbitration. Given the fungibility of relief pitching, the Cubs may lock up Marmol for next year and revisit his contract situation next offseason, thus taking the risk of having to pay more in 2012 for a pitcher who is on the cusp of being one of baseball's elite closers. Either that or a combination of the Wilson and Gregg contracts — a two-year, $15MM deal with a team option to buy out Marmol's first free agent year for $10MM.
Padres Rumors: Gonzalez, Bell, Byrnes, Hinch
The All-Star Game mattered more than usual to the Padres this year, and not just because they're in contention and may benefit from the NL's win. Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse has the details:
- The cost of Adrian Gonzalez’s option for 2011 has risen from $5.5MM to $6.2MM since the first baseman reached many incentives. Gonzalez boosted the cost of the Padres’ option by making three All-Star teams and winning a pair of Gold Gloves.
- Padres closer Heath Bell will be "ticked off" if he doesn’t get a bonus for making this year’s All-Star team, but Padres CEO Jeff Moorad forbids player bonuses (he wasn't the one who negotiated Gonzalez's incentives).
- Two recently-fired members of the D’Backs organization could join Moorad in San Diego. Krasovic continues hearing that Josh Byrnes and A.J. Hinch are “tight” with Moorad, who was a D'Backs executive until last year.
- Spending cuts are looming in Arizona, according to Krasovic.
Padres Looking To Add Offense
We already know that rookie GM Jed Hoyer is looking to add some starting pitching to his Padres' team, and now MLB.com's Corey Brock passes along a quote indicating that he's ready to add offense as well.
"I don't feel like you're ever all set," Hoyer said. "I think we're looking on both sides [pitching and offense]."
Brock says the team is reluctant to part with prospects just like everyone else, but the Padres could realistically shop closer Heath Bell for a package that includes a big league piece and prospects. Bell will be arbitration eligible next season after earning $4MM this year, and might get a little too rich for San Diego's tastes. Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson would then move up a peg in the bullpen pecking order, and the team likely wouldn't miss a beat.
The Padres survive with stellar pitching (MLB best 3.10 ERA) and defense (MLB best 31.5 UZR), though they have obvious offensive shortcomings. Their shortstops have hit just .234/.295/.338, their left fielders .196/.294/.288, and their center fielders .234/.328/.360, so they could have interest in someone like David DeJesus or Xavier Nady. Brock mentions that owner Jeff Moorad will consider adding payroll in order to make a move happen.
Mets Came Close To Acquiring Manny After 2004
Manny Ramirez was no stranger to the trade rumor circuit during his time in Boston, long before the team actually went ahead and shipped him to the Dodgers in 2008. The deal that would have sent him to the Rangers in exchange for Alex Rodriguez is perhaps the most well known Manny non-trade, but WEEI.com's Rob Bradford says the team also came very close to shipping Ramirez to the Mets following the 2004 season.
Manny was fresh off being named World Series MVP, but the idea behind trading him was to use the savings for then free agents J.D. Drew and Adrian Beltre. Drew went on the sign with the Dodgers, Beltre the Mariners, though both found their way to Boston eventually.
There were several variations of the deal with the Mets, but the two constants were hotshot prospect Lastings Milledge and the veteran Cliff Floyd. At various other times, the package of players included Heath Bell and Ian Bladergroen, who the Mets eventually traded the the Red Sox for Doug Mientkiewicz.
The deal fell apart because of money. The Mets wanted to the Red Sox to kick in some of the $77MM left on Manny's deal, but Boston "wanted to get money back in the deal to pursue the available free agents." Bradford goes through some what-could-have-been scenarios in his article.
Ramirez went on to hit another 120 home runs and win another World Championship with the Red Sox, while the Mets fell just a game short of qualifying for the 2006 Fall Classic. They did, however, land one superstar responsible for helping the Red Sox end their World Series drought that offseason, signing Pedro Martinez to a four year, $53MM deal in December of 2004.
Odds & Ends: Bell, Giants, Lowell, Maine, Indians
Sunday linkage..
- Heath Bell told Ephraim Fischbein of New York Baseball Digest that he's happy in San Diego, but would like to return to the Mets if the Padres decide to go in a different direction.
- Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News (via Twitter) applauds the Giants' signings of Juan Uribe and Aubrey Huff, who cost the club roughly $3MM each.
- Mark Tracy is excited to be a part of the Rockies along with his father, manager Jim Tracy, writes MLB.com's Thomas Harding. Colorado selected the skipper's son in the 22nd round of the 2010 Draft.
- Contrary to a report late last night, the Angels and Red Sox did not agree to a swap of Gary Matthews Jr. and Mike Lowell over the winter, a major league source told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- David Lennon of Newsday (via Twitter) writes that it's an 80% possibility that the Mets non-tender John Maine after this season.
- ESPN's Buster Olney says that the Indians are likely to move some veterans in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, but they could be a dangerous team to face until then because of Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, and Jake Westbrook (Insider req'd).
- MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch says to expect negotiations between the Pirates and their top draft picks Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie to go right down to the August 16th signing deadline.
- The Pirates had a long debate about who to take with the second overall pick in last week's draft according to Chuck Finder of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, and it wasn't until last weekend that they decided on Jameson over Manny Machado.
- Meanwhile Rob Biertempfel of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review says the Pirates won't rush their top prospects. Once those prospects are promoted to the big league team, their minor league roster spots will be filled by players currently on ML roster (after they're optioned down) or by "signing low-cost, minor league free agents."
- Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer doesn't see the Indians offering anyone but Shin-Soo Choo a multi-year deal, including the resurgent Austin Kearns.
- Newsday's David Lennon thinks it might make sense for the Mets to "consider opening extension talks" with catcher Rod Barajas before the season ends and he hits the free agent market.
Rosenthal On Cubs, Pedro, Padres
Let's check out the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..
- It's hard to imagine the Cubs as sellers, but if they go that route, lefty Ted Lilly would be a logical piece to move. He's a potential free agent with some no-trade protection but they already have two replacements in their bullpen in Tom Gorzelanny and Andrew Cashner. Meanwhile, Derrek Lee has been adamant about not waiving his no-trade clause. However, hooking on with a contender would enhance his value on the open market.
- The Phillies have kept in touch with Pedro Martinez's agent but GM Ruben Amaro says that he will have to be "really motivated" to pitch this season. Rosenthal says that translates to the righty wanting more money than he was paid last season, roughly $1MM for six weeks of work. Money may not be everything for Martinez though as he will be 39-years-old in October and is said to be content.
- The Padres are confident that Ryan Webb could fill a set-up role if they move one of their strong late inning relievers. However, the team is reluctant to make such a move with Mike Adams' durability in question. That said, the Padres would listen to offers for Heath Bell if a club was willing to give them a hitter they could control for several years. Rosenthal instead suggests that they consider Cleveland's Austin Kearns as he is a cheap, affordable outfielder.
- Boston GM Theo Epstein hates trading for relievers, but chances are the club will be in the market for bullpen help come July.