Phillies Acquire J.T. Realmuto
2:15pm: The Phillies have announced the trade, acquiring Realmuto in exchange for Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and international funds. It seems, then, that the bonus money was the fourth component of the deal, rather than an additional minor league talent.
1:30pm: One of the winter’s biggest storylines has finally drawn to a close, as the Phillies and Marlins have agreed to a deal that will send star catcher J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (Twitter links). A four-player package will go to Miami in return, headlined by young backstop Jorge Alfaro and top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez. Southpaw Will Stewart is one of the other pieces in the deal. The Marlins also acquire an international signing slot worth $250K, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links).
The course of negotiations surrounding Realmuto took many twists and turns. At various times, it seemed he’d end up at a variety of different teams, with the Dodgers, Padres, Reds, Braves and Astros all rumored to be involved to varying extents. Ultimately, the Phillies emerged late as the winning suitor, with their willingness to include Sanchez, one of the game’s top-ranked pitching prospects, seemingly pushing things over the finish line.
With the move, the Phils will add two seasons of Realmuto, a player who has established himself as the game’s best backstop. He’s earning just $5.9MM in 2019 with one more season of arbitration eligibility still remaining. It’s certainly possible that the Phils will pursue extension talks with the 27-year-old, though there is no indication that the possibility of a long-term contract is an element of today’s transaction.
Some may wonder whether this represents an alternative to the Phils’ longstanding pursuit of top free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Odds are, it only enhances the odds of such a major outlay. Parting with the years of cheap control over Alfaro and the upside of the two pitchers clearly positions the Phillies as a win-now club. And Realmuto is an affordable piece who won’t remotely clog the still-wide-open current and future Philadelphia balance sheets. His addition only further underscores the Phillies’ desire to win, which one would figure to be an appealing trait for either Machado or Harper. Of course, both are still expected to go to the highest bidder, but Philadelphia’s aggressive commitment to winning this offseason could be a tipping point in its favor should either top free agent be weighing similar offers from the Phillies and another suitor.
Future maneuverings aside, Realmuto himself provides a significant boost to the Phillies’ 2019 playoff chances. The 27-year-old missed the first few weeks of the 2018 campaign due to a minor back injury but came storming back with a terrific .277/.340/.484 batting line, 21 home runs, 30 doubles and three triples in 531 plate appearances. Realmuto’s OPS+ (which is adjusted for home park and league) checked in at 139 — effectively indicating that he was 39 percent better than a league-average hitter. That’s all the more impressive when considering that catchers, on the whole, were about 10 to 15 percent less effective than a league-average bat. Put simply — there are few, if any catchers in baseball who could upgrade a lineup more than Realmuto.
Defensively speaking, Realmuto is solid across the board. He’s thrown out would-be base thieves at a 35 percent clip across the past three seasons and has turned in average or better pitch-blocking marks, per Baseball Prospectus, throughout his career. While Realmuto’s framing efforts graded out poorly early in his big league tenure, he drew above-average marks in 2017 and average marks last season, so the Phillies can likely expect at least average output in that regard. Realmuto isn’t the framer that Alfaro was in 2018, but he’s a better blocker, and it’s not unreasonable to think that he could be a three- or four-win upgrade over Alfaro on his own.
As one would expect for a player of Realmuto’s caliber, the cost of acquisition was hardly cheap. Alfaro will step directly into the Marlins’ lineup as the team’s primary new backstop. While his bat is a work in progress, his framing in 2018 was excellent, and scouting reports on him as a prospect often pegged him with an 80-grade arm (top of the 20-80 scale).
Alfaro hit .262/.324/.407 with 10 homers in 377 PAs last season, but there’s reason to doubt his ability to replicate that output. Specifically, Alfaro whiffed in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances and benefited from an eye-popping (and clearly unsustainable) .406 average on balls in play. The 25-year-old will need to improve on his contact skills if he’s to carve out a career as a regular, but the tools he possesses are undeniably enticing — particularly for a rebuilding club like Miami.
Sanchez, meanwhile, has rated among the game’s top pitching prospects for the past couple of seasons thanks to a triple-digit fastball and the potential for three average or better secondary offerings. The biggest question with him is health, as the righty was limited to 46 2/3 innings last season thanks to arm troubles (though none that required surgery). Sanchez reached the Class-A Advanced Florida State League as a 19-year-old last year — making him about four years younger than the average player in that league. Despite facing more advanced and experienced hitters, Sanchez pitched to a pristine 2.51 ERA with a terrific 45-to-11 K/BB ratio and a 52.3 percent ground-ball rate in those 46 2/3 frames when healthy. He’s likely at least a year away from MLB readiness, but he’ll immediately become not just the most highly regarded pitcher in the Marlins organization but their clear-cut top prospect.
The addition of Stewart, 21, isn’t a throwaway note for the Marlins, either. A 20th-round pick back in 2015, the lefty has elevated his status with a strong showing to this point in his pro career and was ranked 18th among Phillies farmhands by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs just last month. Stewart was two years younger than his average opponent in Class-A last season but nonetheless worked to a 2.06 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a sensational 62.9 percent ground-ball rate in 113 2/3 innings as a starter. His sinker is complemented by a trio of potentially average offerings, and his significantly improved walk rate in ’18 is reason for further encouragement. The ceiling on Stewart is certainly lower than on Sanchez, but as ground-ball oriented pitcher with solid control, he could function as a nice back-of-the-rotation piece in the Marlins’ spacious home park if all pans out well.
In all, the Marlins have certainly positioned themselves to come away from the trade with a fair bit of value. While there’s certainly risk to the assets which they acquired — as is the case when trading any star player for unproven talent — Alfaro was long one of the game’s top catching prospects before debuting, and the most optimistic scouting reports on Sanchez peg him as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. It’s feasible that by mid-to-late 2020, both could be on the Marlins’ big league roster, and the addition of a solid arm such as Stewart, even if he’s more “high floor” than “high ceiling,” deepens the farm and presents another potential rotation piece.
The Phillies traded a pair of high-upside players, Alfaro and Sanchez, who could prove to be dynamic pieces for a division rival down the line but did so at a time when the NL East could legitimately be seized by any of the division’s top four teams. Realmuto will join new additions Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen alongside holdover Rhys Hoskins in the top portion of the Phillies’ lineup, and with the potential addition of Harper or Machado looming, his presence should be a key element in a dramatically improved lineup. The Phillies are aggressively looking to atone for last season’s late collapse, and the moves they’ve made, to date, seem quite likely to help the organization achieve that goal.
Phillies, Marlins Working Out Details Of Prospective J.T. Realmuto Swap
Reports emerged this morning that momentum was growing between the Phillies and Marlins on a deal to send star catcher J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia. Now, it seems, the sides have made yet further strides, to the point that they appear to be on the cusp of a completed transaction.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post cites multiple sources (Twitter link) for the proposition that the negotiations are “down to physical reviews” and the supplemental prospect pieces in the swap. He reports that top Phillies pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez would join young backstop Jorge Alfaro as the two key pieces of the package.
That report builds upon prior indications of a nearing agreement. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that two of the other organizations that had been pursuing Realmuto now believe he’s destined to land with the Phils. Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM tweeted that he expects a deal to occur today, while MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the growing momentum with the Philadelphia organization specifically.
In terms of the final details of the package, it seems that’s still open to discussion. (One wonders whether other Marlins players or third teams could also be involved.) Sherman reports (Twitter links) that players under consideration including top-ten organizational prospects Mickey Moniak, Adam Haseley, and Adonis Medina, with Jon Heyman of MLB Network reporting (Twitter links) that Alec Bohm, Luis Garcia, and Spencer Howard all also being talked about.
That bunch of names covers most of the top portion of the Phillies farm, so there’ still a good bit of variability in the outcome here. Sherman says the outlook for the deal still looks good — indeed, Sanchez’s medicals are already under review in Miami — but there’s haggling left to go. The Marlins want four total players and are unsurprisingly trying to pry loose some of the Phils’ best remaining farm assets.
Phillies “Gaining Momentum” In Pursuit Of J.T. Realmuto
THURSDAY: The Phillies are “gaining momentum” in their pursuit of Realmuto, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Precisely what that means isn’t clear, but it seems the sides have reason to believe they could line up on a swap.
Mish tweets that he expects a deal to occur today, though he does not specify that Realmuto will necessarily be sent to the Phils.
WEDNESDAY, 4:00pm: Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Daily News also hears that the Marlins’ preference is to find a deal for Realmuto in the very near future (Twitter link). Like Frisaro, he notes that Sanchez is viewed by the Marlins as a key piece in the deal, adding that young catcher Jorge Alfaro would need to be included in the swap as well.
1:46pm: The Marlins will demand top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez in any deal with the Phils, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro.
Frisaro notes that the Miami organization would like to wrap up a deal with one of the remaining suitors before the club holds its annual FanFest event this Saturday.
TUESDAY: The Phillies appear to be re-emerging as a candidate to land Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeted earlier today that the clubs have been in contact of late, while Yahoo’s Tim Brown now notes on Twitter that “there could be some traction” between the clubs, suggesting it is a situation to monitor.
As ever, it’s worth taking this news with a grain of salt. The trade saga surrounding Realmuto has dragged on for the entirety of the offseason, with numerous reports suggesting that certain suitors were rising or falling in likelihood. With February upon us, Realmuto remains a Marlin.
That said, this match makes potential sense on paper and these particular journalists aren’t prone to dropping bread crumbs of information in a scattershot manner. On the Marlins’ side, it seems all but certain that the Miami club will end up shipping Realmuto elsewhere. Following an outstanding 2018 season, and with two seasons to go before he reaches free agency, his value will never be higher. There are plenty of interesting assets in the Phillies system that would hold appeal to the rebuilding Marlins.
The Phillies have been eyeing up major acquisitions all winter long, but haven’t yet pulled the trigger. While the focus has been elsewhere, it’s plenty arguable that the team could stand to improve behind the dish. Jorge Alfaro has promise, and has been rather productive thus far in the majors, but is far from a sure thing after striking out 138 times in 377 plate appearances last year. Meanwhile, Andrew Knapp struggled a fair bit in his first full effort at the game’s highest level.
This latest chatter may not lead to anything. We recently heard that the Reds were progressing in talks on Realmuto, only for that talk to fall off. Over the weekend, reports emerged and were then shot down that the Rays were back in the hunt. It has been suggested that negotiations were nearing a crescendo, but things remain unresolved.
Still, it’s certainly intriguing to imagine that the Phils are making a push here. The club could conceivably envision a strike for Realmuto as part of a broader late-market push to land multiple high-end players. Realmuto, after all, is earning only $5.9MM in 2019, so his salary won’t make much of a dent and surely won’t preclude much larger expenditures. Alfaro could in theory be a part of the return, as he’d be just the sort of controllable, reasonably high-upside MLB asset that would help the Marlins feel good about parting with their best player. And it may be coincidental, but it’s worth noting that the Phils just struck a deal with veteran Drew Butera, who might in theory make for a sensible reserve to pair with a heavily used regular such as Realmuto.
Latest On J.T. Realmuto
SUNDAY: The Rays “appear content” with their current lineup, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, who adds it would be “unexpected” for the club to make any more trades with spring training nearing. That seems to cast doubt on the possibility of the Rays acquiring Realmuto.
SATURDAY: Twists and turns continue in the saga of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has been a dominant presence in trade rumors throughout the offseason. As of Thursday, the Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Braves were reportedly the last remaining suitors for Realmuto, but the Rays have worked their way back into the mix, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. While it seemed earlier this week that Tampa Bay had exited the race for Realmuto, the club has “re-engaged” as spring training nears, per Frisaro.
Fresh off a surprising 90-win season in 2018, the Rays entered the winter as candidates to make noteworthy upgrades, despite their low-payroll ways, but have mostly shied away from headline-grabbing moves. The Rays’ biggest pickup thus far has been right-hander Charlie Morton, whom they inked to a two-year, $30MM contract, and they’ve also reeled in the less expensive trio of catcher Mike Zunino (via trade with Seattle), infielder Yandy Diaz (via trade with Cleveland) and outfielder Avisail Garcia (one year, $3.5MM guarantee). With those four in tow, the Rays are only projected to open the season with a $59MM-plus payroll – far below their $76MM-plus mark from 2018 – as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates.
Fortunately for the small-spending Rays, acquiring Realmuto would not cause a sizable dent in their budget. He’ll earn $5.9MM this year, his second-last arbitration season, and that relatively inexpensive sum only increases his appeal from their standpoint. At the same time, it also helps explain why the Marlins have been holding out for a bounty for the soon-to-be 28-year-old Realmuto, who was the majors’ top catcher last season. And the Rays, whose farm system features nine of ESPN’s Keith Law’s top-100 prospects (subscription required), likely have the ammunition to get a deal done if they’re motivated.
However, should the Rays land Realmuto, it’s an open question whether Zunino would remain in place. Tampa Bay could simply keep Zunino as Realmuto’s backup, thus giving it the game’s best behind-the-plate tandem, but the former may once again become a trade chip in his own right. With a quality track record, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining and a sub-$4.5MM salary for 2019, Zunino could bring back a player(s) capable of helping the Rays’ roster at another position. Zunino has already netted a solid return in a trade once this offseason, as the Rays acquired him in a five-player deal in which they parted with a cheap, starting-caliber outfielder in Mallex Smith.
The Marlins, meanwhile, may receive a Realmuto replacement as part of a trade, which could make Zunino an attractive target for them. While that’s merely speculation, they have discussed veteran backstop Tucker Barnhart in trade talks with the Reds, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com tweets. Additionally, a potential deal with Cincinnati could include 22-year-old third baseman Jonathan India (previously reported) – whom the Reds selected fifth overall in last summer’s draft – as well as at least one “lesser” prospect, Mayo relays. Acquiring Realmuto would be the latest sign that Cincinnati’s aiming to return to contention in 2019. The Reds are currently coming off their fifth straight sub-.500 season and fourth straight campaign with fewer than 70 wins, but they’ve since picked up a slew of household names in various trades.
Like the Reds, the Padres seem hopeful they’ll put several years of irrelevance behind them during the upcoming season. Although the Padres haven’t made any significant improvements yet, they’ve been connected to Realmuto and other stars in the rumor mill. Trading for Realmuto would surely take a bite out of the Padres’ loaded farm system – a unit which includes a whopping 10 top-100 prospects, per Law; subscription required). Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported last week that the Marlins wanted big-hitting catcher prospect Francisco Mejia from the Padres in exchange for Realmuto, but it doesn’t seem that’s the case anymore. At this point, Miami’s interest in Mejia isn’t “especially high,” according to Morosi, Therefore, it’s “likely” that the Marlins would instead need one of Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias from the Padres in a Realmuto package, Morosi writes. Tatis, Gore and Urias rank first, second and fourth among the Padres’ prospects at MLB.com, which places Mejia third.
It’s currently anyone’s guess which uniform Realmuto will don in 2019, but it seems we’ll find out in the coming days. The Marlins are within two weeks of opening camp, and it’s unlikely Realmuto will still be on their roster at that point, Frisaro suggests.
J.T. Realmuto Talks In “Advanced Stages”
The Marlins’ trade talks centering around J.T. Realmuto have reached “advanced stages,” reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, who lists four possible suitors still in the mix: the Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Braves.
While the report seems to advance things from previous levels, it should be pointed out that this isn’t the first time talks have reportedly gained momentum. In fact, that exact terminology (“gaining momentum”) was used last Friday with no deal yet coming to fruition. Earlier this week, the Reds were said to have “made progress” on a Realmuto swap before those reports were walked back, and it’s now been three weeks to the day since the Marlins were first reported to be in “substantive” trade talks regarding Realmuto.
Whatever is going on behind the scenes, it seems clear that there has at times been a concerted effort to convey the idea that talks have been more productive than is the case in actuality. Perhaps that’s the Miami organization trying to pressure other clubs to inch their offers toward the reported sky-high asking price, but with all due respect to those involved, it’s become difficult to determine just how close a deal is to reality. For instance, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Dodgers aren’t even active in their pursuit at the moment but adds the Rays to the list of current pursuers; Frisaro’s report, in contradictory fashion, says the Rays and Astros look to have largely bowed out of the race while listing the Dodgers as a factor. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted last night that the Padres are more involved than the Dodgers.
The greatest cause for optimism regarding a terminus in this exhausting saga could be the latest column from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required), wherein he writes that there are “signs that [the asking price] has come down in recent days.” The Padres have reportedly sought an extension with Realmuto as a contingency in any trade, though Lin now writes that the organization remains confident it could sell the catcher on its promising future even though the Marlins have denied interested teams a window to negotiate a long-term deal.
Over the past week, the Padres and Reds have been the two teams most strongly linked to Realmuto, with Atlanta, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay oft rumored to be involved to varying extents. The continually conflicting depiction of the extent to which each is (or isn’t) interested makes individual updates perhaps worth taking with a grain of salt. However, the pronounced increase of rumors surrounding Realmuto does seem to lend credence to the notion that the Marlins have upped their efforts to find a palatable deal.
Reds Have “Made Progress” In Realmuto Trade Talks; Other Clubs Still Involved
4:30pm: While the Reds’ interest in Realmuto is genuine, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, the organization also doesn’t view him as a necessity and isn’t willing to overpay in order to acquire the All-Star.
Jan. 29, 9:13am: Whatever progress was made has clearly not yet resulted in a deal. It’s not just that the Marlins want to wait to see if other clubs will increase their offers. Rather, per Heyman (via Twitter), the Fish and the Reds are “still apart on prospects,” with other clubs also still engaged with the Miami organization.
Jan. 28, 3:59pm: MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that there are “substantive” talks ongoing between Cincinnati and Miami, adding that India is indeed a player being discussed as part of the return.
The Marlins, though, are still talking with the Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, and are seeking the best package of two to four players they can obtain.
3:03pm: Third base prospect Jonathan India, whom the Reds selected with the No. 5 overall pick in this past summer’s draft, is also of interest to the Marlins, Heyman tweets. The former Florida Gators star hit a combined .240/.380/.433 in 184 plate appearances this past season in his pro debut — though he struggled in the Class-A Midwest League a bit after tearing through the Rookie-level Appalachian League with a .995 OPS in 14 games (the type of production one would expect from a fairly polished college bat in Rookie ball).
2:37pm: The Reds are “making progress” in their effort to pry catcher J.T. Realmuto away from the Marlins, reports Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Prospects Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell and Hunter Greene are all of interest to Miami, Heyman notes, which isn’t exactly a surprise given that they’re the organization’s consensus top three farmhands. Cincinnati is reluctant to part with any of that trio, but the two sides still appear to be gaining steam. Tucker Barnhart could be part of the package going back to Miami if a deal is reached, Heyman adds.
Whether it’s with the Reds or another club, it does seem as though the Marlins are at long last moving toward a deal. SiriusXM’s Craig Mish tweets that the Padres have been making a “late charge” for Realmuto and suggests that the “final chapter of the saga is upon us.” Heyman tweets that the Padres and Dodgers have been among the most aggressive teams in pursuit of Realmuto in recent days, prior to Cincinnati’s increased efforts. The Braves, according to Mish, are also in the mix though perhaps not to the same extent as the other three.
If the Reds are to ultimately strike a deal, it’ll be the latest move in an aggressive offseason of trades that has dramatically altered the complexion of the club. Cincinnati has already acquired (and extended) Sonny Gray in a deal with the Yankees, and the Reds have also picked up Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in another pair of deals.
While catcher isn’t a clear-cut area of need given that Barnhart is a solid option behind the dish himself, Realmuto has emerged as arguably the game’s best all-around catcher over the past couple of seasons, meaning he’d still be an upgrade for the Reds if Barnhart is indeed shipped to Miami as part of the trade. It should be noted, too, that Barnhart took a step back in several key areas last year; the 28-year-old had a career-high strikeout rate (18.4%) and saw his OBP and average dip as his batting average on balls in play regressed closer to his career norm.
Even defensively, the well-regarded Barnhart saw his caught-stealing rate plummet from a league-leading 44 percent in 2017 to a below-average 24 percent in 2018. In spite of his 2017 Gold Glove Award and strong reputation, Barnhart has never graded out as a plus pitch-framer, but he posted the worst marks of his career in that regard in 2018 as well (per Baseball Prospectus).
All of that said, Barnhart is still a .257/.331/.374 hitter across the past four seasons, and while the resulting 88 OPS+ is below average relative to the rest of the league, it checks in a bit better than that of the average catcher over that same span. He’d be a better replacement for Realmuto than the majority of the free-agent options remaining on the market, and with $10.25MM guaranteed to him over the next three seasons (plus a 2022 option), he’d be plenty affordable even for the low-spending Marlins. He’d also give Miami another potential trade piece should the team look to flip him quickly this offseason or perhaps this summer at the deadline.
J.T. Realmuto Trade Talks “Gaining Momentum”
TODAY: The Marlins aren’t allowing teams to discuss an extension with Realmuto, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports (Twitter link). This would certainly seem to be an obstacle for the Padres, given Morosi’s earlier news. Beyond the Padres and Dodgers, Frisaro also lists the Rays, Reds, Braves, and Astros as suitors in the Realmuto sweepstakes, and it’s still “hard to handicap who has [the] inside edge” at this point.
FRIDAY: Trade talks between the Marlins and rival organizations regarding backstop J.T. Realmuto are “gaining momentum,” according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). In particular, he adds, the Padres and Dodgers are “believed most prominent” in the current stage of talks.
Those NL West rivals have long been rumored to be in the hunt for a player who established himself as the game’s best receiver in 2018. With two affordable seasons of control remaining, Realmuto is one of the top prizes of the offseason. That has led other teams — even some with established catchers — to enter the fray as well. At this point, it’s not at all clear that any of the previously rumored interested parties are out of the picture entirely. Frankly, there’s still little reason to believe that any given team is a favorite after months of still-unresolved chatter.
It is interesting, though, to see that report of momentum coincide with this additional, new bit of information: The Padres are not just interested in acquiring Realmuto’s final arbitration-eligible seasons. Rather, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link), the San Diego organization is “insisting on [a] window to negotiate [a] contract extension” if they are to line up on a deal with the Marlins.
Structuring a deal in such a manner holds obvious appeal for the Padres, who surely do not fully expect to contend in 2019. And that could enable the Fish to maximize their return; no doubt, the Padres’ loaded farm includes quite a few players of interest, with San Diego backstops Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia also representing sensible targets. But it also comes with some risk for the Miami organization. After all, a failure of the extension talks would mean re-opening trade negotiations, possibly with diminished leverage.
It’s worth bearing in mind, of course, that we’ve been waiting all winter for a Realmuto deal to come into focus. Perhaps it finally will — there isn’t much of a window left before camp opens, after all — but this certainly isn’t the first time we’ve been told of a build-up in talks. (See here and here.)
Marlins Want Francisco Mejia In Padres’ Offer For J.T. Realmuto
The Padres have emerged as one of the more ardent trade suitors for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, and now Miami looks to have its eyes on one of San Diego’s young backstops. The Marlins want catching prospect Francisco Mejia included as part of the Padres’ offer for Realmuto, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).
Mejia has already switched teams once in his brief pro career, coming to the Padres last summer as the return in the trade that sent Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the Indians. The 23-year-old switch-hitter was a consensus top-20 prospect in the game last season, with Baseball Prospectus going as far as to rank Mejia as the sport’s fifth-best minor leaguer. He owns a career .293/.347/.452 slash line and 54 home runs over 2127 minor league plate appearances, and Mejia has also seen a bit of action at the MLB level, accumulating 76 PA with Cleveland and San Diego over the last two seasons.
Mejia saw a bit of work as a third baseman and corner outfielder in the minors, as the Tribe and Padres experimented with him at different positions given the presence of incumbent catchers (Yan Gomes, Austin Hedges) at the big league level. With Miami, however, Mejia clearly would be the Marlins’ long-term answer behind the plate as Realmuto’s replacement.
While Mejia is a logical target for the Marlins, he also stands out as something of an expendable piece for the Padres, despite his intriguing potential. Acquiring Realmuto would more than solidify their catching position, of course, particularly if the Padres were able to get Realmuto to agree to a contract extension before a trade (as Morosi mentioned in his earlier report). Mejia’s star potential at the MLB level gives him more trade value than Hedges, who has proven to be an outstanding defender with some pop in his bat, but hasn’t shown much overall hitting prowess over 921 career PA for San Diego.
Given that the Marlins are known to want a huge return for Realmuto, it’s likely that they have also asked San Diego about Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore and Luis Urias, though the Padres have reportedly been unwilling to move any of those top prospects. Even without those three involved, however, San Diego’s highly-touted farm system has so many interesting youngsters that the Padres could put together a tempting multi-prospect offer with Mejia as the headliner.
NL East Notes: Nola, Markakis, Marlins, Braves, Nats
The Phillies and Aaron Nola have not had any “substantive” discussions regarding a long-term contract extension, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic in a much broader exploration of Nola’s contractual status and pending arbitration case (subscription required). The two sides are facing a $2.25MM gap between the $4.5MM at which the Phillies filed and the $6.75MM at which Nola and Paragon Sports filed.
A hearing is set for Feb. 14, and with no real talks on a multi-year deal taking place to this point, it seems all the likelier that Nola’s case will be resolved in front of an arbitration panel. There’s no immediate urgency for the Phillies to lock Nola up to a long-term contract, and it’s certainly possible that the right-hander’s preference is simply to go year-to-year through arbitration until reaching free agency upon completion of the 2021 season. Both Nola and Yankees right-hander Luis Severino are important cases for future first-time-eligible starters in arbitration; with the exception of Dallas Keuchel (who is anomalous, having entered arbitration fresh off a Cy Young win), no first-time starter has topped the $4.35MM that Dontrelle Willis received way back in 2006. It’s a stunningly outdated number, and arb victories for Nola and/or Severino would help move the needle forward for future starting pitchers.
More from the division…
- Prior to re-signing with the Braves on a one-year contract, Nick Markakis had interest from the division-rival Marlins, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. It’s one of the few times this offseason that the Miami organization has been connected to virtually any sort of free agent, as the vast majority of their offseason has centered around the apparently interminable J.T. Realmuto trade saga. Heyman notes that Miami is still seeking a left-handed bat — likely an outfielder — though it’s likely that they prefer to see what the return for Realmuto brings before committing any spots to veteran free agents.
- Speaking of the great Realmuto staredown, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes in his latest Inbox column that the Marlins are still insisting that the Braves include one of their current position players in a trade for the All-Star catcher. So long as that continues to be the price, Bowman writes, it’s unlikely that the Braves will cave into the Marlins’ demands. Bowman also projects that the Braves are about $15MM away from ownership’s top-approved budget level, noting that the team would like to preserve some of those resources for in-season additions when the need arises.
- In another MLB.com Inbox, Jamal Collier writes that the Nationals are still in the mix for Bryce Harper and takes his best guess at how the organization will ultimately act with regards to Harper and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Collier also adds that it’s unlikely the Nationals add another reliever on a market-value contract, adding the caveat that the Nats might make a very late addition to the relief corps if a quality reliever’s market collapses and renders his price point well south of expected levels. In a separate piece, Collier opines that a left-handed reliever would be ideal for the Nats, who tend to use Sean Doolittle in save situations and otherwise have only Matt Grace and Sammy Solis (who struggled through an awful down season in ’18) as the other two options on the 40-man roster. Non-roster invitee Vidal Nuno will also be given a chance, but it’s possible the market does yield an unexpectedly affordable left-handed upgrade, given the bulk of relievers who’ve yet to sign.
NL Notes: Realmuto, Dodgers, Braves, Markakis, Cardinals, Gray
The Dodgers‘ recent acquisition of Russell Martin hasn’t taken them out of the running for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. To the contrary, the Dodgers are still discussing a potential Realmuto deal with Miami, and catching prospect Keibert Ruiz is among the names Miami is targeting. Although he opened the 2018 season at just 19 years of age, Ruiz spent the entire season with the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate. Ruiz was nearly five years younger than the average player in the Double-A Texas League, but the switch-hitter nevertheless held his own, hitting .268/.328/.401 with a dozen home runs and 14 doubles in a career-high 415 plate appearances. Ruiz also demonstrated preternatural bat-to-ball abilities, striking out in only eight percent of his plate appearances. He currently ranks 36th among all MLB prospects on the latest rankings from Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs.
Here’s more from the Senior Circuit…
- Nick Markakis told reporters on today’s conference call that he had larger offers in both overall value and in guaranteed length but felt strongly about returning to the Braves for a fifth season (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Markakis re-upped with Atlanta on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $6MM — a $4MM salary in 2019 and a $2MM buyout on a $6MM option for the 2020 season — and general manager Alex Anthopoulos indicated that the unexpectedly affordable rate could help the Braves accomplish some other offseason goals. “Nick coming back on these terms allow us to pursue other things, have financial flexibility to improve the club in other ways,” said Anthopoulos. (David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that the team’s next move may not occur until Spring Training is underway, though.) Burns notes that Markakis won’t suit up for all 162 games next season, as he did in 2018, which the club believes will help the 35-year-old to stay fresher and to avoid a second-half slump.
- Signing Paul Goldschmidt to an extension could be a bit more complicated for the Cardinals than many would think, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic explores in his latest column (subscription required). Goldschmidt has already signed what turned out to be one exceptionally team-friendly extension, and as the former union representative for the D-backs, he takes particular umbrage with team owners’ increasing reluctance toward spending in free agency. Saxon wonders whether Goldschmidt will feel obligated to push for a maximum-value contract given his views, though he emphasizes that Goldschmidt himself has declined to discuss his feelings about a new contract. And, as Saxon further writes, there are no indications that talks between the Cardinals and Goldschmidt’s agent, Casey Close, have begun.
- Sonny Gray spoke with reporters about his decision to sign an extension with the Reds before ever suiting up for a single game with the team (link via Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Gray noted that his relationship with newly hired pitching coach Derek Johnson, who previously was his pitching coach at Vanderbilt, played a significant role in the decision. The Reds also have one of Gray’s college battery-mates, Curt Casali, on the roster as a backup to starter Tucker Barnhart. Gray also explained that his late father was a Reds fan, adding that the first MLB game he ever attended as a child was at Great American Ball Park. As to what prompted his struggles in New York this past season, Gray was uncertain but said he feels stronger having endured the struggles. “I honestly think you can go through some hardships at times and come out the other end better than you ever were,” Gray said.