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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/2/20

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With the non-tender deadline coming today at 7pm CT, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance.  In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections.  Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market.  Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

Earlier Agreements

  • Twins righty Jose Berrios will earn $6.1MM with a $500K signing bonus in 2021, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Catcher Mitch Garver will rake in $1.875MM, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Center fielder Byron Buxton ($5.125MM) and reliever Taylor Rogers (terms not released) also agreed to deals, according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.
  • The Phillies have deals with starter Zach Eflin ($4.45MM) and relievers Hector Neris ($5MM), David Hale ($850K) and Seranthony Dominguez ($727,500), Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Heyman and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com relay.
  • The Marlins and first baseman Garrett Cooper have a $1.8MM agreement that could max out at $2.05MM with performance bonuses, Craig Mish of Sportsgrid tweets.
  • The Brewers are keeping catcher Manny Pina in the fold for $1.65MM, according to Heyman. They’re also retaining first baseman Daniel Vogelbach for $1.4MM, Nightengale reports.
  • The Giants and outfielder Austin Slater have a one-year, $1.15MM deal, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.The club also reached a $925K agreement with lefty Wandy Peralta and a $700K pact with righty Trevor Gott, Heyman tweets.
  • The Cubs are bringing back hurlers Dan Winkler ($900K), Colin Rea ($702,500) and Kyle Ryan ($800K), Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Ryan’s agreement is a split contract that features a $250K minor league salary.
  • The Mets are retaining lefty Steven Matz for $5.2MM, Nightengale tweets. Matz had a brutal campaign in 2020 with a 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP over 30 2/3 innings in 2020, but the Mets will give him a chance to rebound.
  • The Padres and lefty Matt Strahm have a one-year, $2MM deal, Nightengale reports. Strahm gave the Padres a 2.61 ERA/4.93 FIP in 20 2/3 innings in 2020.
  • Outfielder Guillermo Heredia, whom the Mets claimed from Pittsburgh in August, will earn $1MM in 2021, according to Nightengale.
  • The Astros and reliever Austin Pruitt have settled for $617, 500, per Heyman. The right-hander missed the season with elbow issues.
  • The Royals and outfielder Jorge Soler have agreed to a one-year, $8.05MM deal with $250K in incentives, Nightengale reports. Soler was a 48-home run hitter in 2019, but his production went backward this past season, in which he slashed .228/.326/.443 with eight HRs in 174 trips to the plate.
  • The Red Sox have kept relievers Matt Barnes ($4.4MM) and Ryan Brasier ($1.25MM) and catcher Kevin Plawecki ($1.6MM), per tweets from Nightengale, Robert Murray of FanSided and Heyman. Barnes has been a solid reliever as a member of the Red Sox, though he yielded more than five walks per nine and upward of four runs per nine in 2020. Brasier was more successful this past season, as he tossed 25 frames of 3.96 ERA/3.15 FIP ball and averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine. Plawecki had a nice year as the backup to Christian Vazquez, as he batted .341/.393/.463 in 89 PA.
  • The Giants and southpaw Jarlin Garcia have settled for $950K, according to Heyman. Garcia is coming off an 18 1/3-inning effort in which he posted a near-perfect 0.49 (with an impressive 3.14 FIP) and 6.87 K/9 against 3.44 BB/9.
  • The Marlins have agreed to a one-year, $4.3MM deal with first baseman Jesus Aguilar, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The 30-year-old slugger put up strong numbers in his first year with the Fish, slashing .277/.352/.457 with eight long balls in 216 plate appearances.
  • The Giants and outfielder Alex Dickerson settled at a year and $2MM, tweets Nightengale. The 30-year-old slugger has a lengthy injury history but has been excellent in limited work with the Giants, including a .298/.371/.576 slash in 170 plate appearances this past season.
  • Luis Cessa will be back with the Yankees on a one-year deal, tweets Nightengale. He’ll earn $1.05MM. The righty notched a 3.32 ERA and 3.79 FIP with a 17-to-7 K/BB ratio in 21 2/3 innings this past season. Fellow righty Ben Heller will also return, the team announced, though it didn’t disclose financial details.
  • First baseman Matt Olson and the Athletics settled on a one-year deal worth $5MM, tweets Nightengale. The 26-year-old Olson’s .198/.310/.424 slash was an obvious step back from his 2019 campaign, but he’s still viewed as a vital part of the club’s future moving forward.
  • The Braves and righty Luke Jackson agreed to a one-year deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The 29-year-old was rocked for a 6.84 ERA in this year’s shortened slate of games but posted a 3.84 ERA and 3.24 FIP with better than 13 K/9 as one of the team’s steadiest relievers in 2019. The contract is valued at $1.9MM, per a team announcement.
  • The Brewers are bringing back catcher Omar Narvaez for one year and $2.5MM, Heyman tweets. Narvaez was a very good offensive catcher from 2o16-19 with the White Sox and Mariners, but he struggled last season after the M’s traded him to the Brewers. Thanks in part to a career-worst 31 percent strikeout rate, Narvaez could only muster a .176/.294/.269 line and a paltry two HRs in 126 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he’s in line to return to the Brewers for a second season.
  • The Brewers have agreed to a one-year, $2MM contract with shortstop Orlando Arcia, Nightengale relays. Arcia endured serious struggles on offense in prior years, but the 26-year-old managed a respectable .260/.317/.416 line with five home runs over 189 plate appearances this past season.
  • The Phillies and catcher Andrew Knapp have reached a one-year, $1.1MM agreement, per Nightengale. Typically a light-hitting backstop, Knapp batted a career-best .278/.404/.444 in 89 plate appearances in 2020. He’s currently the No. 1 catcher on a Phillies team that could lose J.T. Realmuto in free agency.
  • Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.225MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. It was the second year of arb eligibility for Gonzalez, whose glovework will earn him a contract despite a brutal .227/.255/.359 batting line in 193 plate appearances in 2020.
  • The Royals and Hunter Dozier agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.72MM in entirely guaranteed money, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  More is available to Dozier via contract incentives.  Dozier hit .228/.344/.392 over 186 PA after missing over the first two weeks of the season recovering from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis.
  • The Red Sox agreed to an $870K deal with right-hander Austin Brice for the 2021 season, as per Nightengale.  Brice posted a 5.95 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 5.9 BB/9 over 19 2/3 innings in his first season in Boston, and was considered a potential non-tender candidate.
  • The Twins and righty Tyler Duffey agreed to a one-year, $2.2MM pact, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports.  According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, Duffey’s deal is fully guaranteed.
  • The Braves agreed to a one-year, $900K deal with southpaw Grant Dayton, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  Dayton had a 2.30 ERA over 27 1/3 innings in 2020.
  • The Braves announced an agreement with utilityman Johan Camargo on a one-year, $1.36MM deal.  Camargo was thought to be a non-tender candidate after struggling to a .222/.267/.378 slash line in 375 plate appearances over the last two seasons, but he will return for a fifth year in Atlanta.
  • The White Sox and left-hander Jace Fry agreed to a one-year deal worth $862.5K, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Fry posted a 3.66 ERA, 2.00 K/BB rate, and 11.0 K/9 over 19 2/3 innings in 2020, and he has strong overall career numbers against left-handed batters.
  • The Orioles agreed with second baseman Yolmer Sanchez on a one-year deal worth $1MM, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).  Baltimore claimed Sanchez off waivers from the White Sox at the end of October.  A Gold Glove winner in 2019, Sanchez was non-tendered by Chicago prior to last year’s deadline, though after signing a minors deal with the Giants, he returned to the White Sox on another minors deal and appeared in 11 games on the South Side.
  • The Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth roughly $700K with left-hander Caleb Thielbar, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reports (via Twitter).  2020 marked Thielbar’s first taste of MLB action since 2015, as the southpaw worked his way back from independent ball to post a 2.25 ERA, 2.44 K/BB rate, and 9.9 K/9 over 20 innings for Minnesota.
  • The Dodgers and left-hander Scott Alexander have agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  Alexander posted a 2.92 ERA over 12 1/3 innings out of the Los Angeles bullpen this season, recording an equal number of walks and strikeouts (nine).  The southpaw was thought to be a potential non-tender candidate given his relative lack of usage and his non-inclusion on the Dodgers’ playoff roster, but the team will retain Alexander for his second arb-eligible year.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter) adds the noteworthy detail that Alexander’s $1MM salary is fully guaranteed, as opposed to the usual contracts for arbitration-eligible players that allow their teams to release them prior to Opening Day and only pay a fraction of the agreed-upon salary.

Braves Add Johan Camargo To NLCS Roster

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The Braves have added infielder Johan Camargo to the NLCS roster, the team announced.  Camargo will replace Adam Duvall, who suffered an oblique injury in yesterday’s Game 1.  While Duvall’s injury would likely have sidelined him anyway, his removal from the NLCS roster means he is officially ineligible to play in the World Series should the Braves advance.

Camargo has mostly played in the infield during his four-year career, though he does have a handful of appearances as a corner outfielder.  Atlanta isn’t really hurting for outfield depth given the presence of Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna, Nick Markakis, Cristian Pache and utilityman Charlie Culberson on the roster, plus third baseman Austin Riley can play left field in a pinch.  With Camargo now adding to the infield depth, the Braves could be more apt to go to Culberson or Riley as a late-game sub.

Moreso than defensive concerns, replacing Duvall with Camargo is a significant hit to Atlanta’s lineup.  Duvall hit .237/.301/.532 with 16 homers over 209 PA this season, while Camargo hasn’t hit well in either of the last two seasons.  That said, the Braves have plenty of other bats to theoretically pick up the offensive slack, while it should be noted that Duvall had only a .443 OPS in 21 plate appearances during this postseason.

Braves Reinstate Ozzie Albies From 10-Day IL, Option Johan Camargo

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Ozzie Albies is back on the Braves’ active roster, as the second baseman was activated from the 10-day injured list after missing over a month due to a bone contusion in his right wrist.  In the corresponding move, infielder Johan Camargo was optioned to the Braves’ alternate training site.

Albies played in only 11 games and was hitting .159/.196/.273 in 46 PA before being sidelined, though the Braves are hoping that a fully recovered Albies will now look more like his past All-Star form.  Albies’ return should only enhance the Braves’ already-strong offense, and considering how Atlanta’s rotation has been ravaged by injuries, the Braves may need to slug their way through the pennant race until they can get some of their top hurlers back.

Camargo and Adeiny Hechavarria handled much of the second base duty while Albies was out, and Camargo will now head to the alternate site while the veteran Hechavarria remains as Atlanta’s lone current utility infield choice.  The hitting struggles that plagued Camargo in 2019 have carried over to this season, as he has batted just .200/.244/.367 with four home runs in 127 plate appearances.

Replacing Legends

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If you trust Braves’ third base coach Ron Washington, Austin Riley has a long and bright future ahead of him with the Atlanta Braves, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. Said Washington, “He’s a very, very special kid. He’s on that special level with Ozzie (Albies) and (Ronald) Acuńa (Jr.) and all those young guys. He’s on that special level with them.”

Given Washington’s stellar reputation as an infield instructor, his word carries some weight. He goes on in O’Brien’s article to laud not only Riley’s long-term future with the bat, but with the glove as well, calling Riley “a tremendous third baseman.”

While it’s certainly encouraging for Braves’ fans to hear Washington speak so highly of Riley after an up-and-down rookie season, the path ahead is not without obstacles. For starters, he hasn’t locked down his spot in the starting lineup. All accounts suggest he’s going to have to earn his keep while being pushed at third by Johan Camargo. After his first month of big-league action, it would have seemed unfathomable that Riley wouldn’t have the 2020 third base job locked down, but Camargo remains very much in the running, despite struggling himself in 2019. Camargo’s year was worth -0.6 rWAR after hitting only .233/.279/.384 over 248 plate appearances. He’s played much better in the past (4.4 fWAR from 2017 to 2018), and the Braves appear confident he can at the very least hold the line for a year.

Should Camargo get the bulk of playing time at third, Riley could get at-bats as a designated hitter –  at least in theory. But O’Brien notes that the scuttlebutt out of Atlanta pegs Marcell Ozuna as the likeliest option to see heavy minutes as a potential DH. Makes sense with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis on hand to handle the outfield rotation. Riley himself could even see some minutes out on the grass depending on how things shake out.

But the real question at hand here is this: is Austin Riley the third baseman of the future for the Atlanta Braves? Ron Washington certainly seems to think so. If we trust Washington’s eye for defensive talent and assume Riley can stick at third base (or even become a plus defender), the question is whether his approach at the dish can improve enough to take advantage of his otherworldly power.

After all, Riley’s power numbers last year were excellent. He managed a .471 SLG with 18 home runs in just 274 at bats. His isolated power was .245 ISO, well above average and a number you’d hope for out of a middle-of-the-order bat. For context, Acuna Jr. walked away from 2019 with a .238 ISO. A full season at Riley’s mark would put him among the top-40 mashers in the league by isolated power. His power plays.

But even with those numbers, Riley’s total offensive contribution amounted to 14 percent below league average by wRC+. He needs to round out the rest of his game – and that starts with cutting down strikeouts. Riley’s walk-to-strikeout numbers are not anywhere near where they need to be for everyday reps (5.4 BB%, 36.4 K%). Both numbers need to see significant positive regression. The good news is, Riley looked the part in spring training, where signs pointed to Riley being able to make the necessary adjustments.

Third base is a loaded position for Atlanta – in terms of poignancy – and Riley has big shoes to fill. Putting aside the big picture pressure of manning the spot once belonging to the legendary Chipper Jones, even recent history has set a high bar for Riley. Last season, Josh Donaldson returned to All-Star form with a .259/.379/.521 line, 37 rainmaking bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, 132 wRC+, good for 4.9 fWAR/6.0 rWAR. Good luck replicating those numbers out the gate.

Elsewhere in the NL East, another legend moved westward after a memorable 2019. Anthony Rendon gave the Nationals seven underrated seasons at the hot corner before joining the Los Angeles Angels this winter. We could talk all day about Rendon’s performance this postseason, but those in Washington, Rendon-as-superstar was old hat: He’s been a 6+ fWAR performer for three seasons running. Beyond his consistency, there’s simply no replacing the slow-heartbeat clutch-hitting Rendon provided the Nats on their World Series run – but someone is going to have to try.

Enter Carter Kieboom. Rendon’s nominal heir apparent – at 22-years-old – is about half a year younger than Riley, and he comes sporting a shinier prospect pedigree. He’s the 21st ranked prospect overall by MLB.com and Fangraphs, while Baseball America puts him as the 15th overall prospect (admittedly, Riley wasn’t far off, topping out as Baseball America’s 22nd ranked prospect before last season).

Much like Riley, Kieboom’s role at the outset of whatever season comes next is TBD. There’s an even greater chance the Nats roll with veterans Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera sharing at-bats between third and second. At least, that was the plan had the season begun on time. Depending on how live baseball in the pipeline shakes out, the Nats might prefer Kieboom break camp with the team just to ensure he’s continuing his development via live baseball. With a potential DH in play, there may even be enough at-bats for the Nats to accommodate playing time for Kieboom and their veteran triumvirate.

Also like Riley, Kieboom wasn’t overly impressive in his first taste of big-league action. Apologists have plenty of cause to support Kieboom even after hitting just .128/.209/.282 over an 11 game stint early in the year (which included 4 errors at shortstop). Reason being: he wasn’t ready. Kieboom’s April promotion was a case of injury-depleted desperation. The Nats were in a bind with Trea Turner on the shelf. Wilmer Difo wasn’t getting the job done as Turner’s understudy, and the Nats were off to a slow start (11-12 at the time of his debut).

The small sample hasn’t done much to lessen the optimism over Kieboom’s potential, especially after he raked for a line of .303/.409/.493 for Triple-A Fresno. The shortstop-by-nature has a long-term future at third or second in Washington, though the suggestion has been that his power will play enough to handle third, and the Nats’ other top young bat has spent most of his career at second (Luis Garcia).

Riley is about a half-season ahead of Keiboom’s trajectory, giving us more familiarity with his game at the pro level. But for comparison’s sake, Riley hit .293/.366/.626 in 44 games at Triple-A in 2019. They’re both former first-rounders (Riley #41 overall in 2015, Kieboom #28 overall in 2016), but their draft status won’t help as each looks to fill the shoes of franchise legends.

And yet, they’re not the same. Riley is a hulking light-breaker who’s defensively playing up to stick at third base. His frame is redolent of a young Ryan Zimmerman before Mr. Nat made the move across the diamond to first. Kieboom’s not a small man himself (6’2″, 190 lbs), but some scouts thought he could stick at shortstop, and he brings a contact-oriented approach. He can stroke it to all fields with potential plus power and a track record of taking walks and putting the ball in play. They’re different molds as far as third baseman go, but neither has much leeway as they try to establish themselves in the majors. Not with both the Braves and Nationals looking to contend in a season that could be as short as 50-some games.

Whenever they claim regular roles, Riley and Keiboom will be two exciting young talents to track in the NL East. The Phillies’ Alec Bohm may very well throw his hat into this ring in the very near future as well (feel free to make your case for Bohm in the comments). Bohm is another former first-rounder (third overall in 2018), but he’s spent less time in the minors and is actually older than both Riley and Kieboom. Team conditions aside, let’s say you’ve got a hole at third base and the right to poach one third base prospect. Who do you want? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

Braves Have All The Pieces To Build A Solid DH

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With the DH likely headed to the National League in 2020, the Braves may have a few more at-bats to spread around. As a team, the Braves finished 2019 with a 102 wRC+, the 4th-highest mark in the National League, though they managed to turn that production into 855 runs, fewer than only the Nationals and Dodgers. To repeat at those levels, Atlanta has the difficult task of replacing the production from Bringer of Rain Josh Donaldson, who joined the Twins after putting up 37 bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, and an all-around stellar 6.0 rWAR season in 2019. A regular DH should help.

Atlanta boasts a good deal of depth to utilize in a potential designated hitter role. For starters, there’s the question of whether Johan Camargo becomes a four-down back at third base. Austin Riley may eventually take over the hot corner, but if he doesn’t, there are probably some DH at-bats to go his way. Riley was slated to spend some time at Triple-A, but if there is no Triple-A, the Braves may just as soon bring his light-tower power to the big-league level. Riley definitely struggled closing out his rookie year, but power (.471 SLG and .245 ISO) isn’t the problem. Riley needs to close the gap on his 5.4% BB% and 36.4 K%, but given his youth and potential, he’s probably the guy the Braves want to claim the DH spot (if he doesn’t claim third base outright).

If Riley doesn’t improve the other aspects of his game, then he’s essentially Adam Duvall, another candidate for DH at-bats. Duvall, 31, has a career .229 ISO and .461 SLG at the big league level, numbers that could land him in the middle of the order if it weren’t for other drawbacks to his game. In 130 plate appearances last season, Duvall put together a solid 121 wRC+ showing by hitting .267/.315/.567. That output was bolstered by an absurd .300 ISO. He also had some good luck, as his .306 BABIP was a fair bit higher than his career mark of .271. Duvall could certainly see some time at DH, especially if they want to save Riley for a more stable playing environment, but he has gone just 1 for 3 in posting a wRC+ over 100 when given more than 400 plate appearances. In a short season, however, Duvall has the type of short-burst approach that could perform.

The safer option is to use the DH to rest their four-man outfield of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, Marcell Ozuna, and Nick Markakis. Acuna will be in there every day, but he can move around the outfield and would probably benefit from a DHing day every now and again. Ozuna and Markakis complement each other perfectly in some ways, with Ozuna the right-handed power bat and Markakis the lefty on-base option, and they can both handle themselves in the field. There’s no reason both shouldn’t be in the lineup, however, especially if Inciarte is healthy enough to spend the better part of most weeks manning centerfield. Inciarte, 29, played just 65 games last season, but he’s a true difference-maker with the glove when healthy (21 OAA in 2018, 20 OAA in 2017). Assuming health, all four of Acuna, Inciarte, Ozuna, and Markakis should find their names on the lineup card most days.

With Acuna taking his spot in right, Markakis might be the guy who gets the most at-bats as the ostensible extra bat. But when southpaws take the hill, the Braves can rest some combination of Markakis/Inciarte while getting Duvall or Riley some run. Both mashed lefties in 2019.  Say they go with a straight left-right platoon: Markakis hit .298/.371/.446 vs. righties in 2019, and Duvall (small sample alert) hit .333/.386/.744 vs lefties. Even take Duvall’s career splits versus lefties (.240/.318/.473), and a leveraged platoon of Markakis and Duvall makes for a pretty potent designated hitter.

This post continues a recent series from MLBTR looking at designated hitters options for each team in the National League. Thus far we’ve covered the Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Nationals, as well as the remaining free agent options.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos On Hamels, Third Base, Bullpen

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As part of the team’s “Opener At Home” special on Friday evening, Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos spent nearly 20 minutes chatting with broadcaster Chip Caray about the current state of baseball, the Braves’ roster and some of his offseason dealings (YouTube link).

First and foremost, the GM made clear that southpaw Cole Hamels, signed to a one-year, $18MM contract this winter but slowed by shoulder troubles, is now pain-free. “Under normal circumstances, he would’ve been going right now to get ready to start to prepare,” Anthopoulos said of the 36-year-old, implying that Hamels could’ve been embarking on a rehab assignment. Given that update, it seems reasonable to expect that Hamels will be a full strength if play is indeed able to resume this season.

Of course, that also have a domino effect on the rest of the pitching staff. Per Anthopoulos, two of Kyle Wright, Sean Newcomb and Felix Hernandez would’ve opened the season in the rotation. All three were throwing well in Spring Training, and a decision on those rotation spots was coming “down to the wire,” with the final couple of weeks set to prove pivotal in making that decision. Prior to the spring shutdown, here’s how each of the three had fared:

  • Hernandez: 13 2/3 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 14 K (1.98 ERA)
  • Wright: 13 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 15 K (2.03 ERA)
  • Newcomb: 9 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2BB, 11 K (2.00 ERA)

A healthy Hamels would likely take one of the rotation spots for which that trio is vying, although depending on how a new schedule is constructed — frequent doubleheaders and fewer off-days have been oft-speculated upon — it’s possible that a sixth starter could be needed. At the very least, one would imagine that with expanded rosters early in the season, it’s possible there could be a place for all three.

Also discussed was the Braves’ third base battle: a competition known to be comprised of slugger Austin Riley and the versatile Johan Camargo. Neither player was going to fill the Josh Donaldson-sized void in the lineup, but both had their share of promise. Riley was a consensus top 100 prospect entering the 2019 season and had a strong debut before tailing off over the final few months. Camargo enjoyed an excellent season in 2018 before a step back last year. But while the debate had long centered around which of the two would make the Opening Day roster, Anthopoulos indicated that it was no longer an either-or-scenario:

Camargo and Riley were playing unbelievably well. We hadn’t made a decision yet. We had started to talk — the fact that with the minor league season scheduled to start on April 9, and we were going to start the 26th of March — we had started to talk about just carrying both. There was no reason, really, to leave them down in Florida. They both had been playing well enough to make the team. If it got to a point where we thought one of them needed to play each day, that would’ve been a conversation we could’ve had right when Gwinnett was going to open the season around [April 9], we could’ve sent a player down at that point.

It still seems likely that one of the two would’ve been tabbed for the lion’s share of playing time, but the fact that both were possibly in line for an Opening Day gig is of note. That’s particularly true given not only the likelihood of expanded rosters but also because it’s not yet certain just how (or if) the minor league season will be able to come together. With minor league play even more uncertain than big league play, it’s all the likelier that the Braves would carry both players on the roster to ensure they could get both could get in-game reps — even if it’s on less than an everyday basis.

Asked about his aggressive bullpen makeover — the Braves acquired Shane Greene, Chris Martin and Mark Melancon last July before re-signing Martin and Darren O’Day and signing Will Smith — Anthopoulos was candid about how his moves were shaped by his relievers’ struggles early in 2019.

I think a lot of it was just not having to live through the experience that we had in 2019. Obviously we had a great year — we won more games than we did in 2018, we had a great team — but our bullpen was up and down the entire year. … Having to give up a ton of young assets at the trade deadline is not something we want to have to go through again.

The Braves, Anthopoulos explained, had sought to make upgrades in the previous offseason but didn’t find deals to their liking either in free agency or on the trade market. But the poor first half and the postseason struggles — the GM pointed out that the Braves blew late leads in two of their first four NLDS losses prior to the Game 5 blowout — pushed the Braves to take an “aggressive” approach to the bullpen. Atlanta indeed spent a combined $56.25MM on Smith, Martin and O’Day this winter — plus the $14MM of the Melancon deal they took on at the deadline and a $6.25MM arbitration salary for Greene — in hopes of creating a deeper bullpen that could be called on to hold leads late in games but also in the middle innings.

Assuming the season is able to resume, the Braves will be considered clear postseason favorites, and the depth to which Anthopoulos makes frequent reference in his chat with Caray will be all the more vital if a condensed schedule is to be played. If nothing else, it’s a welcome distraction to hear a top-ranking executive talk about roster construction, offseason maneuverings and challenges/advantages that’ll be relevant the next time his team takes the field.

NL East Notes: Braves, Lowrie, Nunez, Martini

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It doesn’t sound as though the Braves’ decision on an everyday third baseman will come until the final days of camp. Austin Riley and Johan Camargo are vying for that spot, but manager Brian Snitker told reporters today that both players have impressed so far and he’ll “wait until the last couple of days” before making up his mind (Twitter thread via David O’Brien of The Athletic). Snitker has previously suggested that whichever player doesn’t get the Opening Day nod could head to Triple-A Gwinnett for everyday at-bats, as both have minor league options remaining. The skipper again implied as much today: “[A]ll things being equal, one guy’s not going to be real happy with the decision.”

Camargo is hitting .308/.333/.500 through 10 games thus far, while Riley is hitting .320/.346/.600 in the same sample. Obviously, we’re talking about a minuscule number of plate appearances (26), and the Braves’ decision will be based on more than the pair’s surface-level production at the plate.

A bit more from the National League East…

  • There’s still no clarity regarding the knee injury that’s limiting Mets infielder Jed Lowrie, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. The 35-year-old is still wearing a sizable brace on his ailing leg, and neither he nor the organization have been forthcoming about the exact nature of his knee troubles. There’s still no timetable for Lowrie, who tallied just eight plate appearances with the Mets during the first season of a two-year, $20MM deal in 2019. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that with Lowrie unable to participate in Grapefruit League games, fellow veteran Eduardo Nunez has impressed the Mets in camp — perhaps positioning himself to snag a utility role. Nunez is playing on a minor league pact and would need to be added to the 40-man roster. He’s hitting .321/.387/.464 with a pair of doubles and a triple through 31 plate appearances so far in Spring Training and has experience at second base, shortstop and third base in addition to some more limited work in left field.
  • Outfielder Nick Martini was outrighted off the Phillies’ 40-man roster last month, but the news that Andrew McCutchen will open the season on the injured list once again has him in contention for an Opening Day roster spot. Standing in his way are former Phillies top prospect Nick Williams and fellow offseason acquisition Kyle Garlick — both of whom are on the 40-man roster. Nevertheless, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic writes that Martini has impressed manager Joe Girardi, who praised the “professional” manner in which Martini “grinds out” all of his at-bats. Martini does indeed have some of that “professional hitter” feel to him — at least based on his career numbers in Triple-A, where he’s slashed .305/.401/.435 with a hearty 13.5 percent walk rate against a 16.9 percent strikeout rate in more than 1400 plate appearances. Both Garlick and Williams have minor league options remaining, but the Phils would need to make a 40-man move to bring Martini north when camp breaks.

Quick Hits: Camargo, Riley, LoMo, Melville, Russell

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Johan Camargo and Austin Riley are competing for not only the Braves’ starting third base job, but also potentially a spot on the 26-man roster altogether.  Manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that he feels both Camargo and Riley are best served by everyday playing time, rather than splitting third base in a platoon or one player working in a backup role.  Sending one of the duo down to Triple-A is “not out of the question,” Snitker said.  “They’ve got (minor-league) options, and if long term, for the health of our ballclub that’s (what) we see fit, that could happen.”

Plans could change in case of an injury, of course, and both players have experience at other positions.  Riley played mostly left field in his rookie season and only four games at third base, as Atlanta had Josh Donaldson at the hot corner last year.  Camargo, meanwhile, has a lot of experience at shortstop, second base, and both corner outfield positions in addition to third base, though Snitker felt that bouncing Camargo around the diamond last season hurt his productivity at the plate.  After hitting .281/.343/.455 in 780 PA over his first two MLB seasons, Camargo struggled to a .233/.279/.384 slash line in 248 plate appearances in 2019.

More from around the baseball world…

  • After signing a minor league deal with the Brewers this winter, Logan Morrison has no intention of actually playing in the minors if he doesn’t crack Milwaukee’s roster, the veteran told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt and other media.  “Triple-A is not an option.  That’s not going to happen.  I have nothing to prove there.  If they try to send me down, I can get out,” Morrison said, referring to the opt-out clause in his contract as an Article XX(B) free agent.  Since Morrison has at least six years of MLB experience and finished last season on a 40-man roster (the Phillies’ roster) or 60-day injured list, he can ask to be released by the Brewers if they don’t put him on their 26-man roster or the injured list five days prior to Opening Day.  Morrison would also be in line for a $100K retention bonus if the Brewers didn’t put him on the roster but wanted to keep him in the minors, but clearly that isn’t on Morrison’s mind.  “I’m not worried about it because whatever happens, wherever I go, whatever they decide, I’ll be at peace with it,” he said.
  • Tim Melville is recovering from a broken rib and will be sidelined for at least three weeks, Kyle Newman of the Denver Post writes.  After pitching 33 1/3 innings for the Rockies last season, Melville signed a new minor league deal with Colorado earlier this month, though he thinks his rib injury might have taken place at the end of last season.  The discomfort didn’t resurface until Melville began throwing in camp.  The injury obviously lessens Melville’s shot at winning a roster spot, though the Rockies could place the right-hander on the IL and let him ramp up in the minors.
  • Royals pitching prospect Ashe Russell underwent Tommy John surgery last year and is still recovering, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (Twitter links).  The exact date of Russell’s procedure isn’t known, though Flanagan said it took place “awhile” before last June.  That would put Russell roughly on pace to return to the mound sometime before the end of the season.  Russell has tossed only 38 1/3 professional innings since being selected 21st overall in the 2015 draft, and hasn’t pitched at all since the 2016 season.  Back in July 2017, we learned that Russell had taken a “mental break” from baseball, in the words of Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo.  Russell’s agent described the issue as somewhat more pitching-related in nature, saying Russell was “having trouble with his pitching mechanics” and “needed a change of scenery” from the Royals’ training facilities.  The 23-year-old righty is currently at the Royals’ Spring Training camp.

Camp Battles: Braves’ Third Base Situation

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The Braves had a better third base setup than the vast majority of major league teams a year ago. Josh Donaldson, whom they signed to a one-year, $23MM contract heading into 2019, finished as one of the most valuable players at his position. In his first (and maybe only) season in the National League, the former AL MVP hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR in 659 plate appearances. His contributions helped the Braves to a 97-65 record and their second straight NL East title, but they’re now facing life without him as the new season nears.

Atlanta’s hope was to retain Donaldson after his productive 2019, but the club was unable to pull off the feat. The 34-year-old instead went back to the AL, where he had previously played with the Athletics, Blue Jays and Indians, on a four-year, $92MM contract with the Twins. Donaldson’s loss leaves a serious void in the Braves’ lineup, but they’re hoping to somewhat fill his offensive void with outfielder Marcell Ozuna, whom the club inked to a one-year, $18MM contract a few weeks back. But what of third base? Well, the Braves have a couple options there, though they’ll have a very hard time making anyone forget about Donaldson. Let’s explore who’s in the mix…

  • Johan Camargo: An underrated producer in 2018, the switch-hitting Camargo posted 3.3 fWAR while seeing time at both positions along the left side of the Braves’ infield. The 2019 campaign didn’t make for much of an encore, though, as Camargo batted a miserable .233/.279/.384 with seven home runs and minus-0.5 fWAR in 248 plate appearances. Perhaps it wasn’t that surprising; after all, while Camargo registered good bottom-line results from 2017-18, his Statcast numbers lagged well behind in both years. He only put up a .282 expected weighted-on base average in ’19, which didn’t fall that far behind the .304 and .310 marks he recorded in the prior two seasons.
  • Austin Riley: The 41st overall pick of the Braves in 2015, Riley earned his first major league promotion last May, at which point he was considered one of the absolute best prospects in the sport. Riley began with a flourish in the bigs, but his numbers trailed off significantly as the year progressed. The 22-year-old spent the majority of his season in left field and slashed .226/.279/.471 over 297 trips to the plate. Riley exhibited impressive power (18 homers. .245 ISO), but his strikeout and walk numbers left plenty to be desired. He fanned in 36.4 percent of plate appearances and drew free passes just 5.4 percent of the time. Both figures are going to have to improve if he’s going to turn into a viable major league regular.

The Braves continue to look like one of the most talented teams in the NL, but if Camargo and Riley fall flat this year, it could help lead to a fall in the standings. The Braves could still bolster their third base situation via trade, though, as they’ve been connected to the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado and the Cubs’ Kris Bryant in recent months. It doesn’t appear either star will wind up on the move before the season, but perhaps Atlanta will revisit acquiring them if the team’s not happy with its production at third during the first half of the season.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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