The Market For Jose Valverde
Jose Valverde and Juan Cruz have a lot in common. The two relievers were born within months of each other in the same country; they both pile up big strikeout totals; they even anchored Arizona's bullpen together for a couple seasons. Now Valverde's Type A status is limiting interest from potential suitors, just as Cruz's did a year ago.
Valverde has struck out over a batter per inning every year of his major league career, so he'd be a difference maker in any bullpen. The only season in which he has allowed more hits than innings pitched came in 2006 when he surrendered 50 hits in 49.1 innings. His fastball has been extremely effective and consistently hits the upper nineties.
The 31-year-old right-hander is one of the top free agents available, but he hasn't generated much buzz this offseason, partly because he'll cost teams a high draft pick. He could return to the D'Backs, who are keeping an eye on him, and it's too early in the winter to rule out a surprise bidder, but so far the market doesn't appear to have developed.
The Marlins, Pirates and Tigers could use closers, but as ESPN.com's Buster Olney recently pointed out, those three teams seem unlikely to spend big on Valverde or any other reliever. Plus, Valverde would cost the Tigers and Marlins their first round picks and the Pirates would have to give up a second rounder to sign him. The Nationals and Orioles were connected to Valverde earlier in the month, but they've moved on and signed Matt Capps and Mike Gonzalez, respectively.
The market for Valverde doesn't look good now, but there's some hope for him: Cruz did sign a multi-year deal in the end.
Diamondbacks Keeping Eye On Valverde
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been monitoring Jose Valverde's availability and will continue to do so, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Diamondbacks' agreement with Bob Howry could mean they're done shopping for bullpen help, but if Valverde's cost makes sense for Arizona, the team could stretch their budget a little to accommodate him.
There are a few factors working in the Diamondbacks' favor, including Valverde's history in Arizona. The right-hander spent his first five years in the majors with the D'Backs, saving 47 games for the club in 2007. Additionally, the Diamondbacks' first round draft pick is protected in 2010, meaning the team would have to concede only a second round pick if they were to sign the Type A free agent. Piecoro points out that the money Arizona would save by not signing that draft pick could also be put toward Valverde's price tag.
ESPN.com's Buster Olney noted a few days ago that the remaining teams without a closer probably can't afford the righty, while Piecoro suggested a creative contract idea that might work for both the Diamondbacks and Valverde. However, even though Valverde may have misread the market, he's still the most dominant relief pitcher available. If and when his asking price drops, we should see plenty of teams besides the D'Backs getting involved.
Odds & Ends: Cubs, Valverde, Phillies, Hanrahan
Just because it's Christmas Eve doesn't mean the hot stove is taking a holiday. Let's check out some links….
- Washington's signing of Matt Capps takes one more option off the table for the Chicago Cubs, writes Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune.
- Within today's blog entry, ESPN.com's Buster Olney notes that none of the remaining teams in need of a closer (Florida, Pittsburgh, and Detroit) have the payroll flexibility to spend $8-10MM on Jose Valverde. Valverde will probably have to settle for significantly less money than he is asking for, and could potentially even be forced into a setup role somewhere.
- David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News breaks down the options for the Phillies' bullpen.
- The longer Matt Holliday and Jason Bay remain unsigned, the more the rest of the league is asking the Red Sox and Yankees to swoop in, according to Yahoo's Jeff Passan. Sam Borden at LoHud.com understands that logic, but is skeptical about the conclusion.
- Amidst talk that the Pirates are engaged in discussions with Kevin Gregg and Octavio Dotel, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonders if Joel Hanrahan could be the answer as the team's closer.
- If you want a full summary of the road to the Roy Halladay trade, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun has you covered. Elliott offers an extended look at the rumors that led to the deal, and the trade's aftermath. Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times breaks down the most interesting piece of info from Elliott's account, involving Mariners prospect Michael Saunders.
- Rob Neyer of ESPN.com isn't a big fan of the Angels' offseason so far, and questions whether the team even has room to make additional moves.
Diamondbacks Rumors: Johnson, Winn, Valverde
Some D-Backs tidbits courtesy of Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic..
- The club is still waiting to hear back from Kelly Johnson on the offer they made to him last week – believed to be for about $2MM. Johnson's people told the D-Backs that he has better offers out there, but if all things were equal he'd prefer to play for them.
- Arizona continues to be interested in free agent Randy Winn, but it seems as though Winn is looking to be a starter. While the Diamondbacks can't guarantee him that, Piecoro says that he would likely get a fair amount of at-bats with them.
- The D-Backs remain interested in bringing back Jose Valverde, but at their price. A "scenario the Diamondbacks would consider" would be to offer him a one-year deal at a lower base salary than he is seeking (perhaps in the $5MM range) with a promise not to offer him arbitration after 2010. This way, Valverde could hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation. Piecoro notes that he has "no idea" if Valverde would agree to that.
- While they don't feel as though adding a starting pitcher is a neccessity, Arizona will monitor righty Jose Contreras. The 38-year-old posted a 4.92 ERA with 7.2 K/9 for the White Sox and Rockies last season.
Where Will Jose Valverde End Up?
MLB.com's Brian McTaggart writes in his latest piece about Jose Valverde's struggle to find a multi-year contract, or even a one-year deal equivalent to the $10MM salary he was likely to receive had he accepted Houston's offer of arbitration.
McTaggart describes Valverde, 30, as the latest in a tradition of arbitration-eligible players who turn down the offer, only to find the marketplace a far colder place.
Valverde's problem isn't effectiveness- he pitched to a 2.33 ERA last year as Houston's closer, and has posted better than a strikeout per inning every season he's been in the majors- but rather finding a team willing to pay him and give up a draft pick, since Valverde is one of three remaining Type A free agents who were offered arbitration (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are the others).
McTaggart writes, "The hard truth for Valverde is that although he is the most talented and accomplished of the available closers, it may very well be that turning down arbitration from the Astros — and the likely $10 million salary that he would have netted for 2010 — was a bad gamble. He may end up having to accept a one-year deal anyway, as Wagner did, and potentially at significantly less than he would have made in arbitration."
The Astros moved on, signing Brandon Lyon to a three-year, $15MM deal to close. As for Valverde, his destination is still to-be-determined. If/when his price comes down, he could be one of the real bargains of the winter.
Odds & Ends: Rollins, Orioles, Anthopoulos
Saturday morning links. Not quite as good as cartoons, but we'll do our best…
- Paul Hagen of The Philadelphia Daily News says that Phillies' management "tacitly acknowledged that [Jimmy Rollins' next contract] could turn into a contentious issue." The club picked up J-Roll's 2011 option yesterday
- Orioles' president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said he'll probably "let the market percolate" from now on, according to MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez. In English, that means he'll let the hot stove play out and see what arises.
- Blue Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos chatted with fans yesterday, discussing everything from the Roy Halladay trade to Travis Snider trade rumors to what it's like being a GM. I highly recommend checking it out.
- Bernie Miklasz of The St. Louis Post Dispatch says that Matt Holliday should learn from Johnny Damon, who essentially priced his way out of New York with his contract demands.
- Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes that Marlon Byrd signing with the Cubs appears "to be the next domino to fall."
- Curious about what the current 2010 draft order currently looks like? Well here it is. There's only three Type-A free agents left unsigned: Holliday, Jason Bay, and Jose Valverde.
- Earlier today we heard that the Nationals are going after Jon Garland. Now, free agent outfielder Randy Winn is on their radar as well, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.
Olney On Holliday, Bay, DeRosa
Hot stove nuggets from ESPN's Buster Olney…
- Olney doesn't see Jacoby Ellsbury as a great fit for the Padres in a potential Adrian Gonzalez deal, in that Ellsbury will be arbitration-eligible a year from now and is represented by Scott Boras.
- Olney heard the Red Sox would be interested in signing Matt Holliday at less than the current Cardinals offer. Here's the question: what exactly did the Cardinals offer to Holliday in guaranteed money and years? $15-16MM a year for up to eight years is pretty vague. Is it just a five-year offer, as Olney suggested a few days ago?
- Jose Valverde is in a bad place, writes Olney, as there's no clear suitor looking to spend $8-10MM for a closer and give up a draft pick. If Valverde lingers on the market into February he could be a bargain.
- Olney heard that the Mets' "five-year concept" for Jason Bay is heavily backloaded, so much that the true value is similar to Boston's rejected four-year, $60MM offer.
- Righty Edgar Gonzalez might be Japan-bound. He spent this year in the Oakland organization.
- Mark DeRosa's asking price appears to have come down – Olney says it's in the three-year, $18MM range. Still seems too pricey, but it's a step in the right direction.
Orioles Seeking Closer, Corner Infielders
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun dishes the latest Orioles hot stove news…
- The Orioles contacted the agents for a few of Saturday's non-tendered players, including reliever Matt Capps. Capps' agent has mentioned his client's desire to close as a major factor, and the Orioles could accomodate. However, Connolly names Fernando Rodney as Baltimore's top target at closer. Mike Gonzalez, Jose Valverde, and Kevin Gregg are also of interest, though Gonzalez and Valverde are dinged for the draft pick cost.
- The Orioles need help at the infield corners, and they've contacted the agents for a long list of free agents: Carlos Delgado, Hank Blalock, Joe Crede, Nick Johnson, Ryan Garko, Garrett Atkins, and Mike Jacobs. I think they'd be best-served by adding Delgado and Crede. Your thoughts?
- Connolly indicates that about 25, rather than 15, teams were on hand to watch Aroldis Chapman yesterday. So the list of teams not monitoring Chapman is shorter. The Orioles remain involved.
Cafardo On Gonzalez, Rodney, Valverde
In his latest column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo applauds the Yankees' offseason moves so far, but writes that they still have some major decisions ahead of them. Here are some other highlights from Cafardo:
- According to a source, talks between the Red Sox and Padres about Adrian Gonzalez aren't progressing. Padres GM Jed Hoyer is asking for at least Clay Buchholz and either Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland, and the Sox would prefer not to give up that much.
- Cafardo likes Mike Cameron, but not Milton Bradley, as a fit in Boston.
- An NL scout views Boof Bonser as a reliever with closing potential, rather than as a starter.
- Before signing Brandon Lyon, the Astros were talking to Fernando Rodney as well. Apparently his asking price was near $30MM over three years. If that's true, he'll probably end up disappointed this winter.
- Jose Valverde may be "pricing himself out of the market" as well. Teams like the Tigers and Orioles seem unwilling to commit $10MM+ annually to Valverde in a long-term deal.
Orioles Rumors: Millwood, Uggla, Atkins, Beltre
WEDNESDAY, 10:02am: Millwood update: Zrebiec says the Rangers originally wanted David Hernandez and a low-level prospect for Millwood, and were willing to pay $3MM of the $12MM owed to the veteran. Meanwhile Zrebiec's colleague Peter Schmuck says Chris Ray could be involved and the Rangers would pick up most of Millwood's salary, in one scenario.
TUESDAY, 9:36pm: Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reports that the O's are still exchanging trade proposals with the Rangers for Kevin Millwood. T.R. Sullivan reported that the Rangers wanted Chris Tillman initially, but talks have since developed. The Orioles are among the frontrunners for Millwood.
The O's met with the Marlins about Dan Uggla, but the Marlins want two pitching prospects in return and the Orioles are reluctant to hand that kind of package over. The Marlins have one less suitor for Uggla, according to Andrew Baggarly, who says the Giants aren't serious bidders, so that could lower the asking price for the arbitration-eligible infielder.
Here are even more O's rumors:
- Kevin Kouzmanoff and Garrett Atkins interest the O's to an extent.
- Joe Crede and Pedro Feliz remain options for Baltimore, but Adrian Beltre has priced himself out of reach.
- We heard about their interest in Hank Blalock, Carlos Delgado and Nick Johnson earlier today.
- They also have "tepid" interest in Russell Branyan.
- The Orioles aren't particularly intrigued by Joe Blanton and Derek Lowe, who are both available via trade.
- Vladimir Guerrero, Adam LaRoche, Jose Valverde and Kevin Gregg all interest the O's slightly.
- They do have interest in Rafael Soriano, and spoke with the Braves about him.
- They're not interested in J.J. Putz.
- MLB.com's Spencer Fordin reports that the Royals engaged the O's in Felix Pie trade talks without ever coming close to a deal.