The Rangers’ Underappreciated Trade Chip
The Rangers’ decision to cannonball into the deep end of the free-agent pool this offseason has radically reshaped their infield mix and given them one of the top offensive double-play tandems in Major League Baseball. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are slated to hold down the shortstop/second base pairing in Arlington for the next seven seasons.
One side effect of that seismic splash is that it leaves Isiah Kiner-Falefa without a clear-cut defensive home. A Gold Glove winner at third base in 2020, Kiner-Falefa played a strong shortstop in 2021 and had been squarely atop the depth chart there prior to the Seager/Semien stunner. That’s no longer the case, though not through any fault of his own. Kiner-Falefa has been an elite fielder by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and finished third among MLB shortstops in the Fielding Bible’s voting this past season. Metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average aren’t as bullish, but Kiner-Falefa is at worst regarded as a roughly average defender (and generally agreed upon as a good bit more than that).
Beyond his accolades with the glove, Kiner-Falefa is fairly a solid performer at the plate, albeit in more of an “old school” manner. He’s been 13 percent worse than the average hitter, by measure of both wRC+ and OPS+, over the past two seasons — but that’s primarily due to a lack of power. Kiner-Falefa has still posted a solid .273 batting average and a respectable .316 on-base percentage in that time. He’s only drawn a walk in 4.6% of his past 905 plate appearances, but he’s also only fanned in 13.5% of those trips to the plate.
There’s plenty of value derived from Kiner-Falefa’s ability on the basepaths as well. He went 20-for-25 in stolen-base attempts this past season and ranked in the 75th percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. On top of that, Kiner-Falefa has played in all but six of the Rangers’ games dating back to 2020. Only six big league players have appeared in more games than Kiner-Falefa over those two years.
He may not be a star, but Kiner-Falefa is a good defender and baserunner who rarely strikes out and, despite a lack of power, at least gives his club solid at-bats. That’s a valuable player, even if the overall skill set is a bit less typical now than it’d have been a generation ago. A simple course of action is to just shift Kiner-Falefa back to the hot corner, where he won that previously mentioned Gold Glove in 2020. That’d be a straightforward means of addressing the infield, were it not for the presence of fast-rising prospect Josh Jung.
The 24-year-old Jung was the No. 8 overall draft pick in 2019 and has done nothing but hit since he made his professional debut. The former Texas Tech star is widely considered to be among the 40 or so best prospects in all of Major League Baseball and is expected to make his debut in 2022. It’s even arguable that with a good Spring Training showing, Jung could merit an immediate look in the big leagues. He posted a dominant .326/.398/.592 slash between Double-A and Triple-A last year, after all, including a ridiculous .348/.436/.652 output with nine home runs and 14 doubles in 156 Triple-A plate appearances.
Jung has played exclusively at third base in the minors, although as The Athletic’s Keith Law noted in ranking Jung 32nd on his Top 100 prospect list, the Rangers did play him at a few different positions in 2020 at their alternate site. Still, Law calls Jung a solid-average third baseman, and scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com have generally agreed that Jung should be able to handle the position from a defensive standpoint.
Even if the expectation is that Jung rises quickly to the big leagues — be it Opening Day, late April or mid-June — the Rangers don’t necessarily need to do anything with Kiner-Falefa. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an affordable $4.9MM salary in 2022 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2023 season. Asking Kiner-Falefa to keep the hot corner warm for Jung before moving into a super-utility role is a perfectly sound and defensible course of action for a team that is striving for immediately improved on-field results. Kiner-Falefa has strong defensive ratings at each of shortstop, third base and second base — and while he struggled when trying to work as a catcher early in his career, he does at least have 586 MLB innings at the position. At the very least, he’s a better option there than most emergency catchers.
Still, that versatility and affordability also create another path for the Rangers to take: trade Kiner-Falefa to a team that has an immediate infield need. Even with Seager, Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun, the Rangers aren’t expected to compete in 2022. They’re likely looking at 2023 and beyond, when Jung, Jack Leiter, Cole Winn and other top prospects will be more seasoned at the MLB level. Trading Kiner-Falefa now for one more jolt of young talent does carry some long-term appeal, even if it perhaps costs Texas a few wins in the forthcoming season.
The Yankees, for instance, have already been linked to Kiner-Falefa. If they’re indeed reluctant to sign one of the remaining premier shortstops (i.e. Carlos Correa, Trevor Story) to a long-term contract as they instead await the arrival of ballyhooed prospect Anthony Volpe, then Kiner-Falefa would make sense as a quality stopgap who could hold the fort down for the entire 2022 season at the least.
New York is far from the only on-paper fit. The Twins don’t have a clear starter at shortstop at the moment, nor do the Angels. The Astros are still planning for how they’ll replace Correa if he ultimately signs elsewhere, and the Phillies could use a defensive upgrade over Didi Gregorius. Looking to other positions that Kiner-Falefa can handle, the White Sox could install him at second base. The Blue Jays could look for help at either third base or second base.
Suffice it to say, there’s a fairly wide swath of teams that could and quite likely will show interest in Kiner-Falefa when the lockout lifts. Will the Rangers actually make a move, though? That much depends on the strength of offers received.
Texas isn’t going to move Kiner-Falefa solely because of his modest arbitration salary and the fact that he could eventually be used in more of a utility role. If a team makes a strong offer, though, the newfound infield depth will surely prompt president of baseball ops Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young to consider the idea. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News has suggested a couple of times this month that a trade might be likelier late in Spring Training, once Texas has a better sense of where Jung is and once other clubs know what to make of their internal options around the infield.
However things play out, Kiner-Falefa is now a rather valuable luxury item in Texas: well-rounded enough to start at three different infield positions but still likely one step down the depth chart at each spot by season’s end in 2022. Kiner-Falefa has quietly become an underappreciated trade chip, but if the offers presented to Daniels & Co. aren’t sufficient, it never hurts to have an overqualified depth piece in the event of injuries to big-name veterans or a slow start from a top prospect.
Who’s Blocking Josh Jung?
In the 2019 MLB Draft, the Texas Rangers used the eighth overall selection on Josh Jung, a third baseman from Texas Tech. They immediately put him to work, as Jung played 44 games in the lower levels of the Rangers’ system that year as a 21-year-old. He played well and things looked promising, as Baseball America ranked him the #93 prospect in all of baseball heading into 2020.
Of course, 2020 brought the pandemic and all levels of the minor leagues were canceled, putting a dent in the plans of prospects all across the sport. As things were ramping back up for 2021 and they were all hoping to get back on track, Jung hit another setback. In March, he underwent surgery for a stress fracture in his foot, which was expected to lengthen his absence from organized baseball for another six to eight weeks.
Despite those setbacks, once Jung was finally healthy, he made up for lost time in a big way, finishing 2021 on an incredible tear. He finally made his season debut in Double-A on June 15th and played 43 games at that level, hitting .308/.366/.544, wRC+ of 140. He was promoted to Triple-A on August 20th and somehow hit even better. In 35 games for the Round Rock Express, his slash line was .348/.436/.652, wRC+ of 166. That strong finish to his campaign has launched him all the way up to #27 on Baseball America’s list.
At the big league level, the Rangers limped to the end of the 2021 season with a record of 60-102, with only the Orioles and Diamondbacks beneath them. As the offseason began, it seemed that the path was wide open for Jung to waltz onto the roster and make his MLB debut in 2022. Down the stretch, the Rangers gave most of the playing time at third base to a hodgepodge of utility players, such as Yonny Hernandez, Brock Holt, Charlie Culberson and Andy Ibanez.
Since then, however, the Rangers have smashed open their piggy banks and completely changed their infield picture. They shocked the baseball world by signing not one but two of the five superstar shortstops from this year’s star-studded crop of free agents, giving out a ten-year, $325MM contract to Corey Seager and a seven-year, $175MM deal to Marcus Semien. With Seager and Semien now firmly planted in the middle of the infield, that means that incumbent shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been bumped into the third base slot.
Since then, Kiner-Falefa has been floated as a possible trade candidate for those teams that prefer to not spend big on the star shortstops that are still available in free agency, Carlos Correa and Trevor Story. The Yankees, for instance, are apparently leaning towards a short-term option to plug into shortstop until one of their own prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, take over the job. Kiner-Falefa is one option they’ve considered for such a task. But for now, he remains a Ranger, and can’t be moved until the lockout is concluded.
It’s widely expected that the lockout won’t be resolved any time soon, which will eventually lead to a situation where there is a quick turnaround from a new CBA being signed to the start of spring training, whether it’s on schedule or not. That will certainly lead to a wild flurry of transactions to be jammed into that window, as there are dozens of notable free agents still to be signed and many teams with trades to make. The Rangers could certainly try to trade Kiner-Falefa at that time, if they wish. However, they could also hang onto him and make use of his versatility to use him as a super utility option.
In 2021, Kiner-Falefa played 156 games, all at shortstop. But in previous seasons, he’s played third base, second base and catcher. His defense is a stronger calling card for him than his offense, as he’s yet to reach league average with his bat in any of his four seasons so far. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit .280/.329/.370 for a wRC+ of 94. In 2021, that slipped a bit to .271/.312/.357, wRC+ of 85. On the glove side, however, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both give him favourable rankings. Statcast’s Outs Above Average doesn’t really like his shortstop work, pegging him at -7 this year, but it’s graded him well at third and second in previous years.
Although one could argue Jung has a decent chance of being the better option right now, there’s always the elephant of the room with top prospects, where one has to consider the possibility that the Rangers may keep Jung in the minors just long enough to gain an extra year of control. (Assuming the service time rules don’t drastically change in the next CBA.) The club could potentially go into spring training with Kiner-Falefa at the hot corner until Jung is “ready” to be promoted, but that’s also not a guarantee. The Padres recently gave an opening day promotion to Fernando Tatis Jr., showing that service time manipulation isn’t always a certainty. Regardless of the timing, once Jung is promoted, Kiner-Falefa would make for a nice option off the bench, jumping into the lineup whenever one of the other infielders need a day off.
Whether Kiner-Falefa is involved or not, it seems that the future squad will be Jung, Seager, Semien and Nathaniel Lowe, giving the Rangers the potential to have an elite infield core for years to come, as they look to flip the script after five straight losing seasons and get back into being a powerhouse in the AL West.
Rangers Place Three On Covid-19 List
The Rangers have placed infielder Brock Holt and right-handers Drew Anderson and Mike Foltynewicz on the Covid-19-related injured list, per a club announcement. Lefty Wes Benjamin and first baseman Curtis Terry are up from the taxi squad to fill spots on the active roster, but the Rangers will play today’s game with a 25-man active roster. Texas has also scratched catcher Jonah Heim due to Covid protocols and will start Jose Trevino behind the dish instead, per an additional announcement. Heim has not yet been placed on the Covid-related injured list.
Today’s placements come just days after Charlie Culberson was placed on the Covid IL. They’ll leave the Rangers with a rather short-handed bench and likely result in some additional roster machinations in the days to come. However, while the Rangers are down a pair of third basemen — Holt and Culberson — Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that a promotion of top third base prospect Josh Jung is “not in the plans” for the team. Yonny Hernandez and Andy Ibanez will split time at the hot corner while Holt and Culberson are away from the team.
The Rangers now have four open spots on the 40-man roster and will be able to promote players from Triple-A — even those not on the 40-man roster — as replacements without needing to subsequently pass them through waivers in order to return them to Round Rock once Holt, Anderson, Foltynewicz and Culberson make their returns.
Rangers Notes: DeShields, Yang, Allard, Jung
Outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. has foregone the June 1 opt-out clause in his minor league contract and will remain with the Rangers for the time being, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). Grant notes that the Rangers are still open to helping DeShields land on a big league roster if the opportunity presents itself. The Yankees reportedly looked into a trade involving DeShields but have thus far opted to go in another direction. Given Texas’ openness to helping DeShields back to the Majors, the Yankees probably wouldn’t have to give much of anything in return.
Of course, Texas could also opt to take another look at DeShields themselves. He’s batting .363/.433/.538 in Triple-A Round Rock, albeit in just 91 plate appearances and with a ridiculous .500 average on balls in play that won’t be sustained. DeShields has spent parts of five seasons as a Ranger, but Texas is currently committed to evaluating younger and/or more controllable players throughout the bulk of the lineup — hence the decision to move on from Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor this season. Twenty-five-year-old Jason Martin is getting a look right now, and Texas also has Willie Calhoun, Adolis Garcia and Joey Gallo in the current outfield mix.
Some more notes from Arlington…
- Lefty Hyeon-jong Yang is moving back into the bullpen after four of his past five appearances (including three in a row) were starts, Grant tweets. The former KBO MVP has been hit hard when working out of the rotation — particularly the second time through the order. Everything regarding Yang’s numbers so far comes with a small-sample caveat, given his limited innings count, but he’s pitched to a 3.55 ERA in 12 2/3 innings as a reliever while holding opponents to a .191/.255/.340 output. As a starter, he’s been tagged for 11 runs in 15 innings while yielding a .298/.388/.561 slash. One good start or one poor relief outing could obviously skew those numbers substantially at this point, so those numbers can be taken with a grain of salt. The 33-year-old Yang has tossed at least three innings in all of his appearances as a Ranger, so he’ll give skipper Chris Woodward a multi-inning option.
- Stepping into Yang’s rotation spot will be left-hander Kolby Allard. The former Braves top prospect and first-round pick has worked primarily out of the bullpen this season but stretched to four innings in his most recent relief outing. Allard held his own as a rookie following the trade that swapped him and reliever Chris Martin in 2019, but he was clobbered for a 7.75 ERA in 33 2/3 innings last summer. He’s been sharp through his small sample of 11 1/3 innings in ’21, sporting a career-best 27 percent strikeout rate and a strong seven percent walk rate. It feels like Allard has been a prospect forever, but that’s common with high-profile high school draftees. He’s still just 23 years of age and has only 19 big league starts under his belt, so there’s time for him to yet emerge as a solid back-end starter for Texas.
- Top prospect Josh Jung is expected to be cleared to return to action within the next two weeks, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The 23-year-old Jung, selected eighth overall in 2019, has yet to play this season after suffering a stress fracture in his foot back in Spring Training. He underwent surgery that came with a recovery period of up to eight weeks. Jung has yet to play above A-ball because of last year’s canceled minor league season, but he hit .316/.389/.443 between Rookie ball and Class-A in 2019, his lone pro season thus far. He’s widely considered to be among the game’s top 100 overall prospects and is viewed as the club’s third baseman of the future.
Rangers’ Prospect Josh Jung Out 6-8 Weeks With Stress Fracture
Rangers’ top prospect Josh Jung will undergo surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). The injury likely puts Jung on the shelf for six to eight weeks. A generalized timetable projects his return to come a couple of weeks into the minor league season.
Jung, 23, is the 63rd-ranked prospect in baseball per MLB.com. The Rangers took Jung with the eighth overall pick out of Texas Tech in the 2019 draft. Jung departed the Red Raiders as one of the best position players in school history.
Though he is not on the Rangers’ 40-man roster, he was invited to Major League camp. Generally speaking, he’s believed to be closer to the Majors than one might assume, given that his last game action took place in Single-A during his first professional season. Though the Rangers like what they’ve seen from Jung, he was not going to be on the opening day roster, despite their need at the position. Rougned Odor is set for significant playing time at the hot corner this season, while Sherten Apostel, 22, stands as the most obvious roadblock to Jung’s long-term future at the position. Apostel is likely to find his way back to the Majors at some point this season after debuting in 2020.
It’s an unfortunate setback for the Rangers’ consensus top prospect, but the Rangers hope it turns out to be a minor one. Per Grant, President of Baseball Ops Jon Daniels said, “That opportunity, as far as Josh is concerned, I don’t think has moved back a whole lot. Once he goes out and gets rolling and is productive, if he’s knocking the door down and performing at a level that we feel like he’s ready for the next challenge, we’ll respond.”
Jung was likely to begin the 2021 season at Triple-A, though Texas could decide to start him him in Double-A, given the injury. In the long term, the Rangers are hopeful that Jung will establish himself as the third baseman of the future at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
Quick Hits: Rangers, Infield, Rays, Ozuna, Braves, Freeman
Isiah Kiner-Falefa was so impressive in his Gold Glove winning season at the hot corner that the Rangers plan on bumping him further up the defensive hierarchy in 2021. He’ll be their starting shortstop, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, which means an open competition to fill his spot at third. Oddly enough, Elvis Andrus seemed to have the inside track on the job before being traded to the Texas Rangers today. Instead, his long-time double play partner Rougned Odor may be an option, or they could see a replacement from outside the organization. The Rangers prefer that youngsters like Josh Jung and Sherten Apostel spend more time in the minors, Landry notes.
- Marcell Ozuna and Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos were all laughs today as they spoke to reporters, including the Athletic’s David O’Brien, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, and Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Though the two sides certainly took their time to come together on a new contract, the deal itself was actually finished over the course of a single day. The Rays had made an offer to Ozuna, but after one season in Atlanta – a year Ozuna described as the best year of his career – the slugging outfielder told his representation at CAA Sports that he wanted to hear from the Braves. The takeaway here is that clarity, communication, and a little pressure exerted from the outside go a long way to helping two sides come together.
- The jolly atmosphere included a playful reference to the future negotiation of Freddie Freeman‘s extension, tweets Janes. Anthopoulos certainly didn’t seem all that worried about potentially losing their franchise first baseman, who is a free agent after the 2021 season. For his part, Freeman doesn’t seem particularly likely to test his options elsewhere. The 31-year-old was handed the keys to the franchise from the legendary Chipper Jones, and there’s little reason to doubt his plans to stay behind the wheel in Atlanta. Coming off an MVP season and three consecutive NL East division titles, the partnership clearly works. As with Ozuna, the Braves and Freeman could be as much as a conversation away from keeping the California native on the East Coast, a sentiment the Athletic’s David O’Brien has shared for some time.
Rangers Agree To Terms With Top Two Draft Picks
TODAY: Jung will earn $4.4MM and Wendzel $1.6MM, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter links). That leaves the team a fair bit of added padding to work with as it tries to wrap up the remainder of its draft class.
YESTERDAY: The Rangers have agreed to terms with their top two selections in the 2019 draft, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. They’ll announce deals with Texas Tech third baseman Josh Jung and Baylor third baseman Davis Wendzel, per Grant. That duo’s No. 8 and No. 41 slots come with respective values of $5.18MM and $1.81MM. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first tweeted that Wendzel had agreed to a deal, pegging his bonus in the $1.5-$1.7MM range.
Jung, 21, was selected a bit higher than most pre-draft rankings pegged him. Fangraphs tabbed him as the No. 12 prospect in the draft, while Jung ranked 16th at MLB.com, 17th at Baseball America and 18th at ESPN. All of the scouting reports on Jung praise his hit tool and all-fields approach, though there are questions as to whether develop above-average power as a professional. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen note in their report at Fangraphs that Jung’s glovework has improved in 2019 — so much so that he even played some shortstop this season (though he’s unlikely to do so in the pros). Jung hit .342/.476/.636 with 14 homers, 22 doubles and a triple this season while drawing 52 walks against 39 strikeouts in 286 plate appearances.
Wendzel, 22, hit .367/.484/.610 with eight homers, 19 doubles and 11 steals in 223 PAs at Baylor this season. Like Jung, he’s viewed as a hit-over-power third baseman in most scouting reports. He draws strong reviews for his plate discipline and his solid defensive skills. MLB.com’s report notes that Wendzel has played all over the diamond in college and suggests that he “might even be able to handle catching, giving him some intriguing versatility.” He ranked 47th on MLB.com’s rankings, 55th at BA, 65th at ESPN and 82nd at Fangraphs.