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Kevin Gregg

Blue Jays Decline Options On Kevin Gregg

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The Blue Jays have declined options on right-hander Kevin Gregg, making him a free agent, according to a team press release.  Toronto held options of $4.5MM for 2011 or $8.75MM across the next two years.  The reliever will instead receive a buyout of $750K.

In his first year north of the border, Gregg turned in a 3.51 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.  MLBTR learned last week that the 32-year-old will be a Type B free agent.  Jordan Bastian of MLB.com tweets that the Blue Jays will likely offer him arbitration in order to land a compensatory draft pick if he declines and goes elsewhere.

Our own Ben Nicholson-Smith recently compared Gregg to a trio of relievers from last winter's free agent class: Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Jose Valverde.  All three had similar contract years to Gregg and all three secured multi-year deals worth upwards of $11MM.

Blue Jays Notes: Overbay, Encarnacion, Bautista

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Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos met with reporters for an extended media session today, speaking about a wide range of topics. MLB.com's Jordan Bastian brings us the highlights…

  • Anthopoulos acknowledged Lyle Overbay's strong finish to the season, but the team's approach for first base is unchanged. They will explore trades and the free agent market with no guarantee that Overbay will return. 
  • Aaron Hill offered to change positions (third base) if it will help the team. The Jays have until Opening Day of next season to make a decision on the 2012 ($8MM), 2013 ($8MM), and 2014 ($10MM) options in Hill's contract. If they wait until after next season, the 2014 option is voided.
  • There is a chance that Edwin Encarnacion will be non-tendered given the raise he's likely to receive through arbitration. Encarnacion earned $4.75MM in 2010 and will be arb eligible for the final time before free agency.
  • The Jays are prepared to go to arbitration with 54 HR man Jose Bautista. He earned $2.4MM this year and his salary is likely to jump into the $7-9MM range after his monster season. Bastian doesn't think the two sides will work out a long-term deal this winter.
  • Fred Lewis was unhappy when his playing time diminished late in the season. If he's not in the team's plans as a bench player next year, a non-tender could be in order.
  • Even with Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor all eligible to become free agents in a few weeks, Anthopoulos doesn't consider having veterans in the bullpen a top priority.
  • He'd like to add more balance to a lineup that relied primarily on the long ball this season. The Jays led MLB by a large margin with 257 homers, but they finished just ninth with 755 runs scored because of a pedestrian .312 OBP.
  • The possibility of keeping catcher John Buck will be explored, but Anthopoulos said he's earned a long-term deal and a starting job, something that might not work with top prospect J.P. Arencibia having nothing left to prove in the minors.
  • The Blue Jays are not operating with a specific payroll; the GM has the ability to adjust the finances as he sees fit. That gives them more flexibility when looking at free agent and trade scenarios.
  • There are no more front office hirings in the immediate future, but one thing they're considering is someone with more of a computer and statistical analysis background. 
  • Shi Davidi of The Canadian Press adds that Anthopoulos acknowledged the inherent riskiness of trades, but he still considers it the best way to improve the team and is willing to deal prospects for established big leaguers (Twitter links). 

Jays Relievers Open-Minded As Free Agency Nears

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Potential free agents sit down with MLBTR.

The numbers Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs and Jason Frasor have posted this year will look pretty good on the backs of their respective baseball cards. Gregg has a career high 35 saves with a 3.38 ERA and 9.3 K/9; Downs has a 2.73 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9; Frasor has a 3.75 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. But Downs says he looks for something else when evaluating his season.

“Staying healthy,” Downs said. “That’s the main thing. Staying healthy since it’s such a grind. It’s six months out of the year and your body goes through so much, so I think if you just prepare yourself mentally the best you can, if you stay together physically, things will take care of themselves.”

Gregg also evaluates his season primarily based on health.

“Being able to go out there all the time,” Gregg said. “That’s the biggest thing – being available to help out the team. And statistics, they all work out at the end of the year, but being available for the team sometimes is more important than the other stuff.”

The other stuff has worked out fairly well for all three potential free agents, but Frasor thinks he could have pitched better.

“It’s been kind of a roller coaster year actually, and it’s definitely finishing better than it started,” he said. “Looking back, I think I’ve done some of the dumbest things I’ve done, [made] some of the worst pitches. I made some terrible decisions along the way [and] I’ve really gotten burned. But I like my stuff right now and my arm feels good, so it’s been a good year as far as that’s concerned, but it didn’t start out good by any means. It wasn’t pretty.”

Frasor walked nearly a batter per inning in April and posted an 8.38 ERA through the season’s first month, but he recovered from his turbulent start and put together a fine year. With a week remaining in the regular season, he tentatively calls 2010 a success.

“If you had asked me a month ago, no, I’d have said ‘no, it’s not a success,’ but in a lot of ways it is,” Frasor said. “I don’t want to say too much because a lot can happen in this last week, I mean I could give up two grand slams in this last week and then everything’s totally messed up, but as of right now, I’m OK.”

Good health and solid performances aren’t the only things unifying the relievers; all three could become free agents this winter. They are well-acquainted with the rumor mill, so it’s no surprise that the trio takes a laid-back stance to their upcoming free agency. Frasor, who will hit the open market for the first time, says he’s open-minded about his future.

“I’m really not that picky, as long as I’m not back in the New York Penn League or Korea or something,” Frasor said. “I love Toronto, been here for seven years, I have a lot of roots here, so I’m open to coming back.”

Frasor pitched in the New York Penn League when he was a member of the Tigers organization, but that was way back in 1999. Now, he intends to relax once the season ends instead of worrying about his next team. Like Frasor, Downs plans to wait a while before thinking much more about his future.

“Once the World Series is over, I think I’ll sit down with my family, sit down with the people who I need to talk to and hopefully we’ll figure it out from there,” Downs said. 

And the longtime Blue Jay would like to stay in Toronto if the organization wants him back.

“Hopefully there’s a team out there and I would love to come back here,” Downs said. “I’ve been here, like Frasor said, we’ve been together for six years and this is the home away from home for both of us and to say that we wouldn’t want to come back here would be lying. It’s a great city; it’s a great organization.”

Both Frasor and Downs currently project as Type A free agents, so they could see offers of arbitration from the Blue Jays. The team would stand to gain top draft picks if the pitchers turn down arbitration and sign elsewhere, so there’s reason to believe the Blue Jays will think hard about making such offers. 

When GM Alex Anthopoulos held on to Downs, Frasor, Gregg, John Buck and Lyle Overbay at the July 31st trade deadline, he maintained that the team would consider offering arbitration to departing free agents. The players could accept the offers and return to Toronto on one-year deals, but they could just as easily seek multi-year contracts, since they’re playing well and have stayed healthy so far.

Gregg currently projects to be a Type B free agent, but he won’t necessarily hit the open market. The Blue Jays have two options for the right-hander (one for 2011 and one for 2011-12), so his future depends on the Blue Jays’ decision.

“I’m assuming at some point I’ll sit down with Alex [Anthopoulos] and we’ll talk about next year and what is to come,” Gregg said. “But it’s kind of nice because I don’t have to think about it. I’ve just got to wait for him to make his decision, the organization to make their decision before I’ve got to deal with anything.”

Gregg is prepared to hit the open market again and he looks ahead to the possibility without being excited or apprehensive. At this point, he says free agency is just a part of the job.

“It is what it is,” he said. “Been through it already, so I know what to expect, which makes it easier, but it’s a process to go through. You’ve got a lot of conversations to go through and sometimes that gets pretty monotonous, but you deal with it as it comes.”

This offseason, Gregg, Downs and Frasor are likely to see their share of offers. And, fingers crossed, none of the three will end up pitching in the New York Penn League any time soon.

Extension Candidate: Carlos Marmol

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Carlos Marmol and the Cubs agreed to a one-year, $2.125MM contract last February as the reliever and club avoided a hearing in Marmol's first arbitration season.  The deal gave Marmol almost four times what he earned in 2009, and he'll be up for another big raise this winter whether he and the Cubs work out another one-year deal or if they pursue a longer-term option.

Marmol took over as Chicago's closer midway through the 2009 season, but his control problems made some wonder whether Marmol could last in the role.  While Marmol is still walking more batters than the Cubs would like (a 6.1 BB/9 rate), it's still an improvement over the 7.9 BB/9 rate that he posted last year.  More importantly, Marmol has also improved his ERA, WHIP, hits/9 rate and K/BB ratio from 2009, and upped his already-impressive 11.3 K/9 rate last season to a whopping 15.9 K/9 in 2010.  His 62 games finished are also the most in baseball.

Should the Cubs wish to pursue a one-year deal with Marmol again, Heath Bell's one-year, $4MM deal with the Padres last winter is a suitable model.  Bell, like Marmol, was coming off his first season as his team's closer and delivered an All-Star performance.  Bell's 2009 and Marmol's 2010 were pretty similarly impressive — Bell had the better K/BB ratio, BB/9 and WHIP, while Marmol has the superior K/9 rate, HR/9, hits/9, and has already thrown more innings.  Bell did have the advantage of pitching at PETCO Park, so between that and inflation, Marmol has an argument that he should earn closer to $5MM than $4MM.

In terms of a multi-year option, Marmol and agent Barry Praver will look at Brian Wilson's two-year, $15MM extension with San Francisco as a starting point.  While Wilson has certainly pitched well enough this season to lower some of the eyebrows that were raised when he signed that extension last winter, the Cubs may hesitate to commit that much money to Marmol given his still-present control issues.  It should be noted, however, that even with Marmol's 2009 wildness, he still put up a 3.41 ERA and held opposing batters to a .170 average, so it's not like he pitched poorly.  If Marmol's 2011 season is akin to his 2009, it would still be a campaign that the Cubs wouldn't feel sick about paying around $7.5MM to keep.

Given Marmol's high ceiling, the Cubs might be wise to shoot for an option-heavy contract similar to the one that their ex-closer Kevin Gregg received from the Blue Jays last winter.  Gregg received $2.75MM for 2010, and the Jays can pick up a 2011 option for $4.5MM or an option for both 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75MM.  Obviously Toronto was able to get such a team-friendly deal since Gregg struggled in 2009, but if the Cubs double the dollar amounts, Marmol might accept the cost-certainty.  The last option year (that would theoretically cover Marmol's first free agent year) could be adjusted to a mutual option, giving Marmol the ability to walk away after 2012 if he thinks there's an eight-figure offer on the market.  If Marmol keeps up his form from the last four seasons, such an offer would certainly exist.

Chicago already has approximately $103MM committed to next year's payroll, and that's not counting the pay bump that Geovany Soto (an extension candidate himself) will get in his first year of arbitration.  Given the fungibility of relief pitching, the Cubs may lock up Marmol for next year and revisit his contract situation next offseason, thus taking the risk of having to pay more in 2012 for a pitcher who is on the cusp of being one of baseball's elite closers.  Either that or a combination of the Wilson and Gregg contracts — a two-year, $15MM deal with a team option to buy out Marmol's first free agent year for $10MM.

 

Kevin Gregg’s Options

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The Blue Jays have a lot of options when it comes to Kevin Gregg. They will soon decide whether to let him leave, keep him for one year or keep him for two years.  After the season, the Blue Jays can buy Gregg out for $750K, exercise his 2011 option (for $4.5MM) or exercise his 2011-12 options at once (for $8.75MM).

Gregg makes things interesting in the ninth inning, walking lots of hitters (4.3 BB/9) but he has a 3.24 ERA with 9.5 K/9 in his first year with the Blue Jays. Since Scott Downs and Jason Frasor are also free agents after the season, the Jays’ ‘pen could easily look considerably different in 2011. 

Replacing Gregg's 31 saves wouldn’t be cheap or easy. There are always bargains to be found on the relief market (Matt Capps and J.J. Putz are two recent examples), but quality relievers can command multi-year deals, especially if they close out games. Last year Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney and Jose Valverde put together seasons that aren’t that different from Gregg’s 2010 season. As the table below shows, those three right-handers signed multi-year deals worth $11MM or more.

Gregg

*Gregg’s 2010 numbers are shown. All other numbers are from 2009.

It seems likely that the Blue Jays will pick up at least the 2011 portion of Gregg’s option. He has pitched well, and unless the Blue Jays plan on gambling, they’ll have trouble replacing Gregg for a net cost of $3.75MM.

If they let him walk, they would likely obtain a compensation pick in next year’s draft, since Gregg projects as a Type B free agent. But the Blue Jays are set to enter 2011 with a young rotation and seem likely to complement their starters with a veteran reliever here and there. I’m guessing that the Blue Jays bring Gregg back, at least for 2011 and maybe for the next two seasons.

Downs, Frasor, Gregg, Camp All Claimed Off Waivers

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SATURDAY, 12:24pm: ESPN's Buster Olney says that the Jays will probably not be moving any of their relievers at this point.

FRIDAY, 8:09pm: Blue Jays relievers Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, and Shawn Camp were all claimed off trade waivers according to The Toronto Sun's Bob Elliott (Twitter link). It's unknown who any of claiming teams were. 

The Jays made all of their relievers available before the trade deadline, but no one stepped up and met their asking price(s). There has also been no indication that the team is trying to move any of the four, but Downs and Frasor are scheduled to become free agents after the season while there is a club option for Gregg's services. Camp is under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next season as well.

Poll: The Blue Jays’ Bullpen

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The Blue Jays made most of their relief pitchers available before the trade deadline, but no team stepped forward to meet their asking price for Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, and/or Shawn Camp. There was plenty of interest in each, but nothing came of it. 

Yesterday we learned that all four were claimed off trade waivers by unknown teams (or perhaps it was just one team), but we don't know how sincere GM Alex Anthopoulos is about moving his top late game relievers. With Frasor and Downs scheduled to become a free agents after the season, it's possible he'll look to move them for prospects now rather than gamble on compensation draft picks later (both project to be Type-A free agents).

Which relievers will the Blue Jays trade?

Click here to take the poll, and here to see the results.

Odds & Ends: Weeks, Blue Jays, Daisuke, Vazquez

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Links for Wednesday, after a roller coaster win by Joey Votto and the Reds…

Stark On Sherrill, Blue Jays, Harper, Thome

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There has been a “flurry” of waiver claims on prominent players, according to an MLB official who spoke with ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Nearly every desirable hitter and reliever has been claimed, according to Stark’s source. However, we can add at least one name to our list of players to clear waivers. Here it is, along with Stark’s other rumors:

  • George Sherrill, who has a 7.00 ERA and $1.3MM remaining on his contract, cleared waivers, according to Stark. The Dodgers can now trade him to any club, as our waiver trade primer explains.
  • David Aardsma, Kevin Gregg and Brandon League were all claimed on waivers and pulled back, according to Stark’s source. If the Mariners or Blue Jays re-expose their respective relievers to waivers, they would no longer have the right to pull the players back.
  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told Stark that he’s looking for high-impact players, because the club is geared towards reaching 95 wins.
  • One MLB official believes Manny Ramirez will sign a one-year, incentive-based contract with an AL team this winter. That sounds about right.
  • There have been no signs that Scott Boras, who represents first overall pick Bryce Harper, has had any meaningful conversations with the Nationals about what it will take to reach a deal. The sides have until Monday at 11pm CST to reach a deal.
  • The Twins were willing to include Wilson Ramos (now in Washington’s system) in a trade for Cliff Lee, according to Stark’s sources.
  • Jim Thome already has 15 homers for the Twins, and he could be back in Minneapolis next year. "We'd certainly have interest in him coming back," Twins assistant GM Rob Antony told Stark.

Quiet Deadline For Blue Jays

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Many of the best trade chips in baseball play for the Toronto Blue Jays, but the team held onto all of them when their rivals didn’t meet the club’s asking price. Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, Jose Bautista and John Buck remain in Toronto for one simple reason: in the end, no team presented GM Alex Anthopoulos with an overwhelming offer.

“I don’t think we were that close today,” Anthopoulos said. “There were things we had on the table that were available to us, but not enough to make us make a trade.”

A year ago today, the Jays held onto the biggest trade chip in baseball: Roy Halladay. This season Anthopoulos targeted the same kinds of players that his predecessor, J.P. Ricciardi did.

“The greatest challenge we have is getting those elite players,” Anthopoulos said. “We’re always going to continue to shoot high and try to get those impact players.”

Multiple teams considered Scott Downs an impact reliever. The 34-year-old may have been the best left-handed reliever available, but he remains a Blue Jay. After a few months, the rumors and speculation became a bigger part of everyday life for Blue Jays relievers.

“It started to,” Downs said. “I can’t lie, it started to a little bit, but it’s a business.”

Downs, Frasor, Gregg and Buck could potentially bring the Blue Jays draft picks in the 2011 draft. If the four players maintain their current standings in the Elias rankings and all turn down offers of arbitration from the Blue Jays, the team could be working with as many as six extra picks in next year’s draft. It’s a big ‘if,’ but one the Blue Jays were keenly aware of.

“It’s absolutely part of the criteria,” Anthopoulos said. “You look at players that are free agents that could have compensation attached to them and you have a lot of options.”

Many teams liked Jose Bautista, but the MLB home run leader is still in Toronto. As far as he’s concerned, that’s a good thing.

“There were a lot of rumors out there,” Bautista said. “But the end result is I’m still here and this is where I wanted to be.”

The July 31st deadline means the end of non-waiver trades, but there’s still the potential for deals. Anthopoulos expects to explore trade possibilities next month, but most of his trade chips wouldn’t clear waivers. August will likely be quieter than July, but the Blue Jays are open to making deals.

“I’d say we’d be active in terms of exploring the waiver wire, talking to clubs, but in terms of actually getting a deal done, impossible to say,” Anthopoulos said. 

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