Poll: Padres’ Rotation Battle
Shortly after the 2024 regular season concluded, the Padres were hit with a brutal blow when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery, wiping out his 2025 campaign before the offseason even began. That left the Padres with major question marks at the back of their rotation behind Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish. While the late-winter addition of Nick Pivetta into the fold helped stabilize things, that still left one spot open in the club’s rotation headed into Spring Training. Darvish is now battling elbow inflammation himself, though the Padres haven’t ruled him out for the beginning of the season.
Knuckleballer Matt Waldron appeared to be the favorite for the final rotation job after he made 26 solid starts for the Padres last year, but he’s out of commission due to an oblique injury and expected to begin the season on the injured list. With Waldron out of the mix for the Opening Day rotation, that leaves left-hander Kyle Hart as well as righties Randy Vasquez and Stephen Kolek in the mix for the club’s fifth starter spot. Hart, 32, was brought into the organization last month on a one-year deal worth $1.5MM guaranteed. The southpaw has just 11 MLB innings under his belt, where he got blown up to the tune of a 15.55 ERA with the Red Sox during the 2020 season. After toiling in the minor leagues for years in an attempt to get back to the majors, Hart tried his hand in the Korea Baseball Organization last year.
The results were extremely impressive. Hart’s first and only year overseas saw him pitch to a sterling 2.69 ERA in 157 innings of work across 26 starts. He struck out an excellent 28.8% of his opponents while maintaining a strong 6.0% walk rate. That dominant work in Korea was somewhat reminiscent of the success right-hander Erick Fedde found in KBO play during the 2023 season, when he pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings and struck out 29.5% of his opponents. Hart’s numbers don’t quite match up with those of Fedde, but given Fedde’s excellent 2024 season where he posted a 3.30 ERA in 31 starts for the White Sox and Cardinals, even a significant step back from Fedde’s major league production would still make Hart a solid starting option in the majors.
It might seem reasonable, then, to assume that Hart is the favorite for the job. Things may not be that simple, however, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote over the weekend that Hart may be falling out of the race for the fifth starter job due to an illness that has limited him to just two appearances this spring. Acee noted that the Padres have been impressed by what they’ve seen from him so far, but much like Waldron, it’s possible that he simply won’t have time to build up enough to be the club’s fifth starter out of the gate this year. That could open the door for Vasquez or Kolek to jump in and take the job despite résumés that pale in comparison to Hart’s platform campaign.
Vasquez, 26, made 20 starts for the Padres last year. The results left something to be desired, as his 4.87 ERA and 4.70 FIP were both well below league average. With that being said, Vasquez improved throughout the 2024 campaign. After surrendering ten homers in his first nine starts last year, he settled into a rhythm in late June and posted a respectable 4.23 ERA with an even better 3.94 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work over his final 11 starts. While Vasquez’s ceiling isn’t especially high, it’s not hard to imagine him being a perfectly viable fifth starter this year, particularly if his improved ability to keep the ball in the park throughout the second half last year proves to be sustainable.
Kolek, meanwhile, is something of a wild card in the mix. Drafted in the 11th round by the Dodgers back in 2018, the right-hander was traded to the Mariners in 2021 but did not make his big league debut until last year as a Rule 5 pick of the Padres. San Diego used him out of the bullpen, where he posted lackluster numbers despite strong peripherals. Kolek’s fantastic 55.9% ground ball rate and impressive 5.7% walk rate were overshadowed by a strikeout rate of just 18.5%, a massive .359 BABIP, and a lackluster 64.3% strand rate that left him with a 5.21 ERA despite a 3.57 FIP and a 3.41 SIERA.
Still, the right-hander showed enough that he not only stuck with the Padres all season, but club brass also decided to convert him back to a starting job despite him not pitching out of the rotation since 2022 at the Double-A level. His spring results have been impressive to this point, with a 1.00 ERA in 9 innings of work and five strikeouts against just one walk, but Kolek’s pedestrian results last year and lack of a track record as a starter in the majors or even at Triple-A could give San Diego pause about committing to him as a starter to open the season.
If Darvish avoids the injured list, who would you assign to the fifth spot in the Padres rotation to open the season? Would you give the nod to Hart despite his minimal work during Spring Training? Would you stick with the reliable Vasquez despite his relatively low ceiling? Or would you take a chance on a reliever conversion in Kolek? Have your say in the poll below:
Who should the Padres put in their rotation to start the season?
-
Kyle Hart 44% (1,057)
-
Stephen Kolek 28% (660)
-
Randy Vasquez 28% (659)
Total votes: 2,376
Yu Darvish Questionable For Opening Day Due To Elbow Inflammation
Padres right-hander Yu Darvish has recently been slowed in camp. While it was initially conveyed that he had some general fatigue, manager Mike Shildt today provided a more specific and more ominous diagnosis. The skipper told members of the media, including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, that the veteran righty experienced elbow inflammation after his last start.
Shildt stopped short of saying Darvish would start the season on the injured list, describing him as day-to-day. Opening Day is just over a week away, so it’s a tight window. Any time a pitcher’s throwing elbow is involved, it’s a cause for some concern. In the case of Darvish, there may be even more concern than with some other hurlers.
Darvish has dealt with some elbow problems in the past. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2015 season. He was largely health for years after that, though he hasn’t logged a huge workload in the past two seasons. He was capped at 24 starts and 136 1/3 innings in 2023. He landed on the IL in late August due to right elbow inflammation and stayed there to finish the year. In 2024, he only made 16 starts and tossed 81 2/3 innings. He missed time due to neck tightness, a groin strain, some more inflammation in that throwing elbow and an undisclosed personal issue.
That makes this the third straight season that Darvish has battled some elbow inflammation. For a pitcher who is now 38 years old, that’s less than ideal. It’s especially worrisome since rotation depth is one of the key issues on the San Diego roster. The Friars already lost Joe Musgrove for the entire season, as he required Tommy John surgery in October.
Losing Musgrove left the Padres with a rotation core of Darvish, Michael King and Dylan Cease. They signed Nick Pivetta to fill one of the back-end spots. Coming into camp, candidates for the final spot including Matt Waldron, Kyle Hart, Randy Vásquez and Stephen Kolek. However, Waldron is out of commission due to an oblique strain. Hart has also been delayed by the flu and is behind the rest of the group in terms of building up. If Darvish needs to miss some time at the start of the season, that would seemingly leave two spots open behind the King/Cease/Pivetta trio.
If it’s just a short-term absence, the overall group could look stronger in a few weeks, with both Waldron and Darvish perhaps back in the mix. A more serious issue would naturally have bigger impacts. Both Cease and King are impending free agents. That means Pivetta and Darvish are the on-paper rotation nucleus for 2026. Musgrove could be back in the mix by then but may have some workload issues after missing all of 2025. Darvish is still under contract through 2028, as part of the extension he signed with the club in 2023.
It’s also possible this could impact the trade market. San Diego has notable budgetary concerns and various parts of the roster they would like to upgrade. That has led to rumors about Cease or King being available, though Cease’s name has come up far more often. It would be a tricky balance for San Diego to strike, as they would have to feel that reducing their rotation depth is worth it for multiple upgrades at left field, first base or designated hitter.
Presumably, Darvish being hurt would reduce the chances of a Cease deal in the short term, as it would be even harder to justify a rotation subtraction. Closer to the deadline, that calculus could change if the Padres don’t manage to compete. As mentioned, both Cease and King are impending free agents and would be natural trade candidates this summer if San Diego slips behind the other National League contenders.
Photo courtesy Mark J. Rebilas of Imagn Images
Padres Sign Kyle Hart
The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve signed lefty Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2026 season. He’ll be guaranteed $1.5MM, per FanSided’s Robert Murray, coming in the form of a $1MM salary and a $500K buyout on a $5MM club option for the 2026 season. He can boost the value of that option to $7.5MM based on escalators tied to games started. According to The Associated Press, the option price would climb by $250K if Hart reaches 18 starts this year, $500K at 22 starts, $750K at 26 starts, and $1MM if he starts 30 games. There’s also a $250K assignment bonus in the event that he’s traded, MLBTR has learned.
Hart, a client of NPG Sports, enjoyed a breakout showing in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2024 and has drawn big league interest throughout the winter. He’s the second starter the Friars have added in as many days, as San Diego also came to terms on a four-year, $55MM deal with Nick Pivetta last night.
Hart, who turned 32 in November, was torched for 19 runs in 11 innings with the 2020 Red Sox, his lone MLB experience to date. He has a fairly nondescript 4.36 ERA in 334 2/3 Triple-A frames as well, but a move overseas and some changes to his pitch repertoire unlocked new reason for optimism.
Brandishing a new sweeper, a heavier reliance on his changeup and using his four-seamer more at the top of the zone in South Korea, Hart broke out with a 2.69 earned run average over 26 starts for the KBO’s NC Dinos. He racked up 157 innings, fanned 28.8% of his opponents and issued walks at a 6% clip. That performance earned him the Choi Dong-won Award — the KBO equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award.
Hart now joins fellow newcomer Pivetta and holdovers Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in San Diego’s rotation mix. He could have to compete with Matt Waldron, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez for that fifth spot behind the four established veterans, but Hart at the very least seems like the front-runner to land that job.
It’s always possible that a trade changes the calculus, but the minimal 2025 commitments to Hart ($1.5MM), Pivetta ($4MM), Jason Heyward ($1MM) and Connor Joe ($1MM) over the past week have addressed several needs at bargain prices — at least for this year. (Pivetta will earn $19MM in 2026, $14MM in 2027 and $18MM in 2028.) Both Cease and King have popped up on the rumor mill this winter — Cease in particular — but as of this morning the Padres are reportedly planning to hold onto both. That can be revisited at the deadline if the season doesn’t play out as hoped. For the time being, the recent slate of cost-effective pickups seems to have filled various needs within the (very) tight confines of the payroll limitations president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been navigating throughout the winter.
The additions of Hart, Pivetta, Heyward and Joe over the past week have pushed San Diego’s payroll to a projected $207MM, per RosterResource. That’s an increase of nearly $40MM over last season’s end-of-year mark. The Friars have a projected $259MM worth of CBT obligations as well, placing them a hefty $18MM over the $241MM luxury threshold. However, since they reset their penalty level when they ducked under the tax line in 2024, they’ll be faced with only the minimum penalty: a 20% tax on their current overages. That’s about $3.6MM in penalties right now, and it’s possible trades of players other than Cease/King could yet reduce the bill. The Padres have been open to offers on reliever Robert Suarez, and they’d surely be open to offers on left-hander Wandy Peralta or infielder Jake Cronenworth, too, if it meant shedding a notable chunk of either player’s contract.
Latest On Kyle Hart
Thirty-two-year-old lefty Kyle Hart isn’t a household name but nonetheless stands as an interesting free agent for clubs seeking rotation depth this winter. The southpaw has pitched in just one big league season, yielding 19 runs in 11 innings for the Red Sox during the shortened 2020 season. Hart, however, has a decent Triple-A track record and just tore through the Korea Baseball Organization in 2024, logging 157 innings with a 2.69 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. He was awarded the Choi Dong-won Award — the KBO equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award — for those efforts.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports today that Hart has some level of interest from six big league clubs, one of whom has been trying to free up some payroll space before adding Hart or another free agent. At the very least, that’s indicative of a team (or teams) being willing to put forth a big league offer to sign the lefty. Though there hasn’t been much reporting on Hart’s ongoing free agency this winter, he was linked to the Orioles, Astros, Twins, Brewers and Yankees in late December. More than half the league is reported to have at least checked in, though that obviously doesn’t indicate serious interest from all those parties.
Hart’s breakout overseas is reminiscent of recent KBO success stories like Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen and Merrill Kelly, among others. That said, he’ll pitch all of next season at 32. That’s a notable difference from recent KBO-to-MLB arms. Fedde returned ahead of his age-31 season and had the benefit of being a former first-round pick and top prospect. Kelly was 30 when he signed a modest two-year deal with Arizona on the back of a terrific four-year run in South Korea. Flexen’s lone season in the KBO was his age-25 campaign. He returned on a two-year deal with the Mariners at just 26 years old. Of the bunch, Fedde’s $15MM guarantee over two years is the largest contract.
Hart is older than the rest of that group and lacks the prospect pedigree Fedde had. Like many of those pitchers, however, he’s benefited from demonstrable changes to his pitching repertoire since heading to the KBO. He added a new sweeper this season, began throwing his four-seamer up in the zone/above the zone to get some chases, and has used his changeup more heavily. His heater isn’t the type of power offering that modern teams covet, sitting low-90s and peaking around 94 mph, but it’s generally easier for a lefty to get by with lesser velocity than a righty.
Whether that’s enough to sell a major league front office on his viability as a big league rotation cog remains to be seen. Fedde, the most successful of the group in the KBO, won the Choi Dong-won and was named KBO MVP after posting a flat 2.00 ERA with better strikeout and walk rates (29.5% and 4.9%, respectively) than Hart turned in this past season.
If not a return to Major League Baseball, Hart will still have ample opportunity to earn money in Asia. He’s drawn interest from both KBO clubs and teams in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per Dierkes.
Multiple Teams Showing Interest In Kyle Hart
The Astros, Brewers, Orioles, Twins, and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in free agent southpaw Kyle Hart, according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo. Earlier this month, FanSided’s Robert Murray indicated that a whopping 18 teams had at least checked in on Hart’s services as he looks to return to North American baseball after a tremendous year with the NC Dinos of the Korean Baseball Organization.
Hart posted a 2.69 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, and six percent walk rate over 157 innings and 26 starts with the Dinos, winning the Dong-won Choi Award (the KBO League’s answer to the Cy Young Award). Hart’s best pitch is his slider, but according to Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, Hart used that slider less as a primary offering and more as a chase pitch to put batters away. Longenhagen isn’t sure how Hart’s arsenal of this plus slider but only a 90mph fastball and an okay changeup will translate back in the big leagues, and thus Hart is projected as a fifth or sixth starter even if Fangraphs ranked him 48th on their list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.
A somewhat limited repertoire might be less of an issue if Hart is working out of the bullpen, of course, and Sammon and Woo note that some interested MLB teams have considered Hart as a multi-inning reliever. Whether working as a starter, long reliever, or perhaps both in a swingman role, there’s plenty of upside if the 32-year-old Hart can carry over even some of his KBO success back to the big leagues.
It isn’t known if Hart is specifically looking for a starting opportunity in the majors or if he’s willing to take on any role, though the five teams cited as suitors would seem to slot him as a reliever or swingman, in lieu of future injuries or trades to the incumbent rotation. The Twins and Yankees are particularly thin on left-handed bullpen options, which could make Hart particularly appealing to those clubs.
Hart’s previous Major League experience consists of just four appearances and 11 innings with the Red Sox in 2020, when he was hit hard for a 15.55 ERA over his few cups of coffee in the Show. A 19th-round pick for Boston in the 2016 draft, Hart pitched pretty well in his first taste of Triple-A ball in 2019, but has since struggled at the top minor league level, with an overall 4.36 ERA to show for 334 2/3 career Triple-A frames. Hart spent his entire career with the Red Sox before pitching with the Mariners’ and Phillies’ Triple-A affiliates in 2023, and then jumping to the Dinos.
KBO’s NC Dinos Sign Kyle Hart
Left-hander Kyle Hart signed with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization, the team announced (h/t to Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News). He’ll be paid a $200K signing bonus and a $500K salary, while there’s another $200K in possible incentives.
Hart, a 6’5″ hurler from the University of Indiana, has four major league games to his name. Those came with the Red Sox in 2020. He struggled in that limited look, allowing 21 runs in 11 innings. While he hasn’t gotten back to the big leagues since, he signed successive minor league contracts with the Phillies and Mariners this past season.
The former 19th-round pick only pitched once for the Phils’ top farm team. He was a regular member of the rotation for Seattle’s Triple-A team after signing in June, however. Over 18 starts in the Pacific Coast League, Hart posted a 4.58 ERA through 88 1/3 innings. He struck out a reasonable 22.1% of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate.
This will be Hart’s first overseas stint. He joins former Marlins left-hander Daniel Castano as the club’s two foreign-born pitchers to open the season. They replace Erick Fedde (who signed a $15MM deal with the White Sox) and Tanner Tully. Yoo notes that the team is not retaining outfielder Jason Martin, so they’ll look for an additional hitter to meet their allotted three non-Korean players.
Mariners Sign Kyle Hart To Minor League Deal
The Mariners have signed left-hander Kyle Hart to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Tacoma.
Hart, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Phillies this winter and began his season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley but was released after a one-inning appearance in which he didn’t allow a run. He’s been on the open market for about six weeks but has now landed a new gig.
Prior to this year, Hart spent his entire career in the Red Sox organization. That club selected him in the 19th round of the 2016 draft and utilized him primarily as a starter in the lower levels of their minor league system. In 2019, he tossed 156 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.52 ERA and earned himself a spot on the 40-man roster. He made it to the majors in 2020 and made four appearances, including three starts, but posted a 15.55 ERA in those.
He was outrighted off the roster after that year and continued pitching on the farm for the Sox for the next two years, both as a starter and a reliever. He tossed 106 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2021 with a 4.91 ERA, then posted a 5.25 ERA in 2022 over 82 1/3 innings between Triple-A and Double-A.
It’s unclear if the Mariners are interested in Hart as a starter or reliever. They’ve had some injuries to their rotation, with Robbie Ray and Easton McGee out for the year due to Tommy John surgery while Marco Gonzales just landed on the IL due to a forearm strain. That has forced rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo up to the big leagues and thinned the depth a bit. There’s also a couple of relievers on the IL but they’re both right-handed, as lefties Gabe Speier and Tayler Saucedo currently make up the southpaw contingent in the big leagues. They also have non-roster lefties like Eric Stout and Rob Kaminsky in Triple-A.
Hart could perhaps join that group or give the club some extra rotation depth. If he finds his way back onto the 40-man roster, he still has a couple of option seasons and less than a year of service time, meaning he could potentially serve as a depth piece for quite some time if he were to hang onto that roster spot.
Phillies To Sign Kyle Hart To Minor League Deal
The Phillies are in agreement with left-hander Kyle Hart on a minor league deal, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The southpaw will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Hart, 30, will join just his second organization, as he was drafted by the Red Sox and has spent his entire career with them up until this point. Working primarily as a starter in the minors, he had a solid showing in 2019, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A. He made 24 starts and three relief appearances that year between those two levels, tossing 156 innings with a 3.52 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.
That season was strong enough that the Sox added him to their 40-man roster to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. In 2020, Hart made his major league debut but registered a 15.55 ERA in 11 innings. He was outrighted off the club’s roster in November of that year and has continued pitching in the minors, but not quite reaching that form he showed in 2019. In 2021, he had a 4.22 ERA in 106 2/3 Triple-A innings. Last year, he posted a 5.25 ERA in 82 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.
Hart reached free agency for the first time after the 2022 campaign wrapped and has used it to find a new opportunity. The Phillies will see if a change of scenery can help Hart get back on track after a few disappointing years. The club’s rotation will consist of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker, with the final spot open for a battle between guys like Bailey Falter, Christopher Sánchez, Andrew Painter and Mick Abel. In the bullpen, the Phils will have a few lefty options in José Alvarado, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm and Andrew Vasquez. It’s unclear if the Phils view Hart as a starter or reliever exclusively, but he could perhaps provide some depth in either area. If he makes it onto the club’s roster at any point, he still has a couple of option seasons and less than one year of service time.
Red Sox Add 7 Players To 40-Man Roster; Weber, Hall Designated For Assignment
The Red Sox designated lefty Matt Hall and righty Ryan Weber for assignment Friday afternoon, per a club announcement. Additionally, southpaw Kyle Hart cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Pawtucket.
Those three moves helped clear space for the team to select seven players to the MLB roster: catcher/infielder Connor Wong, right-hander Eduard Bazardo, third baseman Hudson Potts, righty Bryan Mata, righty Connor Seabold, outfielder Jeisson Rosario and lefty Jay Groome. All seven are now shielded from being selected in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.
It’s something of an indictment on Boston’s 2020 pitching staff that Weber, who ranked third on the team in innings pitched, was immediately cut loose. Both Hart and Hall started games for the Sox in 2020 as well. The team’s leader in innings pitched, Martin Perez, had his option bought out at season’s end.
Ownership might not have wanted to publicly acknowledge that the team punted the 2020 season, but the nature of the moves involving the team’s 2020 pitching staff speak for themselves. This club was always a long shot to contend in a deep AL East, although certainly the injury to Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez‘s unsettling bout with myocarditis after a Covid-19 battle didn’t help their cause. A lack of depth was always plain to see, however, and this club long looked ill-prepared to deal with inevitable injury troubles that virtually all teams encounter.
Mata, 21, has climbed as high as Double-A and has long been considered one of the organization’s better young arms. Groome probably needs some development time after injuries have slowed the former first-rounder’s career.
Several of today’s names have been added to the system via high-profile trades across the past 12 months. The 24-year-old Wong has also played in Double-A, and as one of the pieces received in the Mookie Betts/David Price blockbuster, is someone the team has high hopes for in the future. Potts is a 2016 first-rounder of the Padres who came over in the Mitch Moreland swap and has also reached the Double-A level. Rosario also landed in Boston via that swap, though he’s further from the Majors having not yet played beyond Class-A Advanced. Seabold could get a look in the rotation as soon as 2021 after coming over from the Phillies in the Brandon Workman/Heath Hembree trade.
Red Sox Promote Tanner Houck
SEPT. 15: The Houck promotion is official. In corresponding moves, the Red Sox moved lefty Kyle Hart to the 45-day IL and placed RHP Andrew Triggs on the 10-day IL with right radial nerve irritation.
SEPT. 13: The Red Sox are planning to promote pitching prospect Tanner Houck to make his MLB debut on Tuesday against the Marlins, per various reporters (including Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). Ian Browne of MLB.com first reported that a Houck call-up was likely. He will need to be added to the 40-man roster before the promotion can become official.
Boston’s 2017 first-round pick (24th overall) out of the University of Missouri, Houck needed to be added to the 40-man this winter regardless in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. There’s little to lose for the out-of-contention Red Sox in getting an abbreviated look at Houck in the season’s final couple weeks.
The 24-year-old has seen his stock dip somewhat since draft day, although he’s still regarded as one of the club’s best short-term pitching prospects. Houck places among Boston’s top fifteen farmhands in the estimation of Keith Law of the Athletic (10th), MLB Pipeline (10th), Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen (11th) and Baseball America (13th). There’s some division among prospect rankers whether Houck will be able to effectively work through opposing lineups multiple times (particularly those heavy on left-handed batters), although the Red Sox will surely give Houck a shot as a starter initially.
Boston’s rotation, without Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez all year, has been atrocious. Red Sox starters have a league-worst 6.18 FIP, and only the Tigers’ rotation has mustered a worse ERA (6.64) than Boston’s 6.25. Nathan Eovaldi has been passable, but there haven’t been many bright spots behind him. That offers Houck plenty of opportunity to stick in the Sox rotation in 2021 and beyond should he prove capable.