The Blue Jays’ Potential Outfield Savior
This has been anything but a productive season for the Blue Jays’ outfield, which ranks at the absolute bottom of the majors in fWAR (minus-1.0) and second last in wRC+ (75). Center fielder Randal Grichuk has fallen well short of expectations after signing a five-year, $52MM extension in early April, while neither corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez nor Billy McKinney have come close to replicating above-average offensive showings from 2018. But Toronto’s outfield does have a saving grace in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who – two-plus years after joining the franchise – is now delivering on the considerable hype he garnered as a prospect.
Gurriel signed with the Blue Jays out of Cuba in November 2016, ending a months-long derby in free agency which saw several teams court him. He ultimately accepted a seven-year, $22MM offer from the Blue Jays, who hardly broke the bank for his services. Had Gurriel failed in Toronto, it wouldn’t have done much damage to the team’s books. Had he succeeded, on the other hand, Toronto would have had a steal on its hands. It now looks like a case of the latter.
Gurriel debuted with the Blue Jays last year and showed off legitimate offensive promise, slashing .281/.309/.446 (103 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 263 plate appearances. He did amass 59 strikeouts against just nine walks, though, while drawing atrocious defensive grades in the middle infield. Gurriel totaled minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 550 innings divided between shortstop and second base.
Despite his infield woes a year ago, Gurriel opened 2019 as Toronto’s top option at second base. It didn’t last long, though. The team optioned Gurriel to Triple-A Buffalo in mid-April, in part because he wasn’t doing much at the plate, but has reaped the rewards since then.
The Blue Jays had Gurriel work in the grass during his minor league demotion and now appear to have an outfield cornerstone in their midst. When the Blue Jays sent the 25-year-old down, he owned a meager .175/.250/.275 line in 29 at-bats. Two and a half months later, he has teed off on major league pitching to the tune of a .318/.366/.642 line with 14 home runs in 191 plate appearances. Among major league hitters who have accrued at least 190 trips to the plate, Gurriel’s 163 wRC+ ranks seventh. On the other side, both DRS and UZR have graded him as a scratch defender in left field since he returned from Buffalo.
To this point, the athletic Gurriel seems cut out for his new position, but how sustainable is his offensive outburst? Well, his 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate aren’t particularly promising, and he sports a .365 batting average on balls in play that won’t hold. He’s also making far less contact and swinging and missing more than he did a year ago. That said, encouraging signs abound. Gurriel may not be making as much contact as he did in 2018, but his hard-hit rate has risen almost 14 percent since then, according to FanGraphs. A drastic increase in fly ball rate, a four-degree rise in launch angle and a noticeable drop in grounders further help explain his power uptick.
Gurriel’s current weighted on-base average, .413, ranks in the top 4 percent of the majors, per Statcast. That’s probably not sustainable, though other indicators show Toronto has a real building block on its hands. The right-handed Gurriel ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected batting average (61st percentile), average exit velocity (65th percentile), expected wOBA (75th percentile), hard-hit percentage (87th percentage) and expected slugging percentage (93rd percentile). Gurriel’s .361 xwOBA sandwiches him between the likes of Charlie Blackmon and Francisco Lindor, among a slew of other familiar names. It helps that Gurriel hasn’t been vulnerable against lefty or right pitchers, whom he has crushed to varying degrees, or particular offerings. Gurriel has posted an xwOBA ranging between .356 and .477 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches, says Statcast.
Back when Toronto signed Gurriel, the hope for the team was that he’d evolve into an indispensable piece of its infield. It now looks as though he’s turning into an integral part of the Blue Jays’ outfield, which no doubt stands as a major victory – especially with young second baseman Cavan Biggio and shortstop prospect Bo Bichette in the mix. With Gurriel, Biggio, Bichette and budding third base star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in line to comprise almost half of Toronto’s attack for the long haul, an enviable offensive core looks to be taking shape up north.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Blue Jays Notes: Stroman, Giles, Gurriel
Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman has come to terms with the fact that he’s a near-certainty to be traded and told reporters this week that he’s not expecting the team to make any final efforts to sign him long-term (link via Bill Ladson of MLB.com). Though he tries not to focus on trade rumblings, Stroman acknowledged that he can’t avoid all of the talk, implying that as a New York native, the frequent connections between him and the Yankees have been on his radar. “I’m from New York and I’m a New York boy,” said Stroman. “That kind of says everything for itself.” Stroman noted that he loves pitching in the spotlight of Yankee Stadium, even if the Yankees’ lineup tends to be “brutal” for opposing pitchers. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling also has comments from Stroman on the possibility of a trade and the manner in which he tries to tune out trade chatter, knowing it’s not something he can control. In 100 2/3 innings this season, Stroman has posted a tidy 3.04 ERA with 6.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 57.9 percent ground-ball rate. He’s earning $7.4MM in 2019 and is arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter.
More out of Toronto…
- Closer Ken Giles came to the Blue Jays with a questionable clubhouse reputation, but The Athletic’s John Lott writes (subscription required) that Giles has quickly changed the narrative, emerging as a leader and mentor to less-experienced pitchers. First-year manager Charlie Montoyo even acknowledged a bit of surprise regarding Giles’ demeanor, telling Lott: “You gotta give him all the credit. He’ll do anything for the team. I didn’t know he was like that. I saw what you guys saw from Houston and all that stuff.” Freddy Galvis, who was on the Phillies when Giles made his MLB debut there, suggested that while he never had an issue with Giles, it’s also obvious that the right-hander has matured since they were last teammates. Giles acknowledges that fatherhood, among other factors, has changed his perspective on life. The closer plainly states that he loves it in Toronto and would prefer to stay there, but he’s also keenly aware that a trade is not only possible but likely. Giles, who is controlled through the 2020 season, has a 1.33 ERA and a 47-to-8 K/BB ratio through 27 innings with the Blue Jays so far in 2019.
- Zwelling also takes a close look at what has been a near-seamless transition to left field for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The converted infielder has played just 28 MLB games there (plus another seven in the minors) but already looks comfortable in his new environs. Gurriel has racked up five outfield assists through just 241 innings while impressing the coaching staff and teammates alike with his outfield play. “Lourdes is unreal out there,” said Stroman of his teammate. “Man, I can’t put it into words. He looks like he’s been playing left field for years. It’s pretty shocking. And it’s exciting.” Meanwhile, Gurriel has somewhat quietly been on a tear at the plate as well. Since being recalled from Triple-A on May 24, he’s raked at a .330/.372/.679 clip with 10 homers, seven doubles and a triple in 121 plate appearances.
Blue Jays Promote Cavan Biggio
May 24: The Blue Jays have made Biggio’s promotion official.
May 23: The Blue Jays will promote infield/corner outfield prospect Cavan Biggio, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca was among those to report on Twitter. He’ll be joined in the majors by Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
With a need for two roster spots, the Toronto organization will send down two players. Outfielder Billy McKinney and infielder Richard Urena will be optioned out.
It’s fun to see Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. share a MLB roster. They’ll likely be joined before too long by fellow top prospect Bo Bichette, at which time the Jays will be in position to compile a fearsome father-son softball team. (For the record, Cavan’s dad out-WAR’ed Vlad’s dad. Both are recent Hall of Fame inductees.)
If that trio can do anything to the 2020’s like their dads did to the 1990’s and 2000’s, it’ll make for heady times in Toronto. For now, the focus is on finishing off the development of these talented youngsters.
Biggio is the least hyped of the group, though he has already exceeded the expectations placed on him as a fifth-round draft pick. Entering the present season, he graded out as one of the ten or so best prospects in the Blue Jays system, but wasn’t considered an elite youngster on a leaguewide scale.
Notably, however, the 24-year-old has increased his offensive output at each step up the minor-league ladder. Through 168 plate appearances at Triple-A, he owns a robust .306/.440/.507 batting line with six home runs.
Having put the ball over the fence 26 times last year at Double-A, Biggio obviously possessed more power than might have been expected. He’s now combining that with the plate discipline that had long been his calling card — and doing so at the highest level of the minors. Biggio has ramped his walk rate all the way up to 19.0% while dropping his strikeout rate to 16.7% thus far in 2019.
Though he has primarily appeared at second base in the minors, Biggio also has experience at third, first, and the corner outfield. He and Gurriel could both appear at multiple positions in the big leagues. The latter was introduced to the outfield (where he has some prior experience in Cuba) after being optioned down due to his struggles at the plate and some yips that arose at second base.
AL East Notes: Gurriel, Orioles, Pop, Pedroia
The latest from around the AL East…
- The Blue Jays have gotten little from their outfielders this season, though reinforcements could be on the way in the form of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi checks in on Gurriel’s development as a utilityman, after Gurriel was sent to Triple-A in mid-April following some rough defensive showings at second base. While Gurriel has continued to see a lot of time (10 games) as a second baseman at Triple-A, he has also been moved around to shortstop and left field. The latter position seems like Gurriel’s clearest route to playing time with the Jays, as the veteran combo of Freddy Galvis and Eric Sogard have performed well as Toronto’s middle infield duo, plus Brandon Drury and (when healthy) Devon Travis will be in the second base mix.
- The Orioles are facing more challenges than just an extensive on-field rebuild, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal explores in a wide-ranging look at the organization. The piece touches on such topics as the ownership transition to John and Lou Angelos from their father Pete, the league’s displeasure at the Orioles continuing their longstanding legal dispute with the Nationals over MASN broadcast rights, and the team’s declining attendance, which reflects both the Orioles’ losing records and the larger economic realities facing the city of Baltimore as a whole. Despite the latter issues, it doesn’t seem likely that the Orioles would actually move out of Baltimore — Rosenthal notes that negotiations are already underway to secure a new lease for the team at Camden Yards, as the current deal expires in 2021.
- Orioles pitching prospect Zach Pop underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, sidelining the right-hander for the rest of this season and likely at least half of the 2020 season. As MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko notes, Pop was shut down in Spring Training due to a significant drop in velocity, though the 22-year-old did eventually take the field and post an 0.84 ERA over 10 2/3 relief innings at Double-A Bowie. Pop was one of the five prospects Baltimore acquired for Manny Machado last summer, and MLB.com (which ranked Pop as the 19th-best minor leaguer in the Orioles’ farm system) touted his high-90’s fastball and a “plus-plus” sinker in its scouting report.
- After his rehab assignment was shut down over the weekend, Dustin Pedroia will be back playing on Friday, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. Pedroia experienced some discomfort in his bothersome left knee, though things have improved enough for the longtime Red Sox second baseman to begin games at Triple-A (Pedroia had previously been rehabbing for Boston’s Double-A affiliate). Knee problems have kept Pedroia out of action for all but nine games since the start of the 2018 season, and with rookie Michael Chavis on fire at the plate, it will interesting to see how the Sox handle things when Pedroia is finally ready to resume regular duty.
Quick Hits: Paddack, Treinen, Archer, Tulo, L. Gurriel
Padres rookie righty Chris Paddack has been brilliant across his first six starts and 33 innings in the majors. But Paddack’s already just 57 frames away from the career-high 90 he totaled in the minors last season in his return from 2017 Tommy John surgery. Considering Paddack’s long-term importance to the organization, San Diego has plans to limit his workload, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Indeed, agent Scott Boras told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the Padres will “manage” his 23-year-old client’s innings. However, Cassavell notes that doesn’t mean the Padres will shut down Paddack – something the Nationals did with Boras client Stephen Strasburg amid a pennant race in his younger days. “It’s mapped out,” manager Andy Green said of the Padres’ plans for Paddack, though he added that “it’s mapped out with the intention for adjustments, as well. So to sit here and walk through exactly what we think is going to happen would be foolish.” Meanwhile, Paddack indicated he’s on board with the Padres’ approach and revealed he’s aiming for a 130- to 150-inning season.
More from around the game…
- Athletics closer Blake Treinen is dealing with right elbow discomfort that he believes is tendinitis, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Treinen’s unlikely to pitch Sunday as a result, per Slusser, who writes that “he’ll get checked out” on Monday. Treinen hasn’t toed the rubber since April 28, when he took a loss in Toronto after the Blue Jays lit him up for four earned runs on five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings. The 30-year-old’s 2019 ERA skyrocketed from 0.68 to 3.00 during that uncharacteristically disastrous performance. Treinen told Slusser he’s simply fighting “fluke soreness,” but if the issue forces him to the injured list, Slusser points out it would be his first IL stint in the majors.
- Pirates righty Chris Archer is eligible to come off the IL on Monday, but that won’t happen, according to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. Archer – out since April 27 with right thumb inflammation – is in line for a bullpen session Tuesday, and he’ll need to throw at least one sim game before the Pirates decide whether he’s ready to return. Archer’s absence is all the more troublesome for Pittsburgh now that fellow righty Jameson Taillon could miss upward of a month with a flexor strain in his elbow.
- Already out since April 3 because of a left calf strain, Yankees shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has suffered a setback and will be shut down for another week, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets. It’s the latest bad break for the once-great Tulowitzki, whom injuries have haunted throughout his career. The 34-year-old wasn’t healthy enough to participate in either of the previous two seasons, which led the Blue Jays to cut him over the winter and eat the remaining $38MM on his contract. Tulowitzki then found a taker in the Yankees on a league-minimum deal, with both parties hoping he’d stay healthy and adeptly fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius. The dice roll hasn’t paid off for the Yankees, who have received a meager 13 plate appearances from Tulowitzki and appear unlikely to get him back anytime soon.
- Although Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has exclusively been an infielder since debuting with the Blue Jays last year, that’s about to change. Speaking with Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday, general manager Ross Atkins said the Jays plan to turn Gurriel into at least a part-time outfielder. The 25-year-old, whom Toronto demoted to Triple-A Buffalo three weeks ago, has been racking up corner outfield reps in the minors. As Chisholm writes, the outfield isn’t totally new for Gurriel, who played left in his native Cuba for 40 games back in 2015-16. The change figures to open up major league playing time for Gurriel upon his return, given that Randal Grichuk‘s the sole Toronto outfielder who has been remotely productive this season. The group entered Saturday as the American League’s least valuable outfield.
Blue Jays Select Eric Sogard, Option Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
April 15: The Blue Jays announced the move. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Sogard, the team has transferred left-hander Ryan Borucki from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Borucki has already been on the IL all season but will now be definitively ruled out until May 27.
April 14: The Blue Jays are sending infielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to Triple A, per Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports. Gurriel the younger was removed from today’s game for a “mental break” per manager Charlie Montoyo. The team hopes their young infielder can get back on track with a Triple-A reset, per Mitchell (Twitter links). MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm tweeted about the possibility of a Gurriel demotion earlier today.
While Gurriel Jr. heads to Buffalo, veteran infielder Eric Sogard is set to join the major league roster. The spectacled Sogard received the bulk of his big league playing time with the A’s from 2010-2015, where he slashed .239/.295/.313 over 1331 plate appearances while playing second, third and short. He spent the last two seasons with the Brewers, hitting .234/.351/.318 across 412 PAs.
Gurriel, meanwhile, has flashed moments of athletic playmaking, such as when he stole home off of Chris Sale last week, while also misfiring on a pair of routine throws from second base. An overall rough go of it at the dish (49 wRC+) also likely bolstered the case in favor of demotion. Given the long-term, if reasonable, financial investment the Blue Jays have made to Gurriel, he likely gets ample opportunity to figure it out, though there’s also little reason to rush him back to the majors. Toronto owes the 25-year-old infielder an average of roughly $3.14MM per season until he hits free agency after the 2023 seasons.