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Reactions To And Effects Of The Craig Kimbrel Trade

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Here are a few notes on the Red Sox’ acquisition of Craig Kimbrel from the Padres last night for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen.

  • The trade is likely to represent the Red Sox’ biggest trade of the offseason, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says (via Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal on Twitter).
  • The Red Sox still need a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, but they’re likely to pursue that kind of player via the free agent market, Dombrowski tells reporters, including Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “My thought process is most likely any acquisition we’d make in the starting pitching would first happen as far as the free-agent field is concerned,” Dombrowski. “You never know, but that would be my guess.” Lauber does note that the team has spoken with executives from other teams about potential trade acquisitions, but the Athletics don’t seem inclined to trade Sonny Gray, and ditto with the White Sox and Chris Sale. That could mean the Red Sox sign David Price, Johnny Cueto or Zack Greinke.
  • The Red Sox’ decision to deal four good prospects for Kimbrel suggests a change in the team’s approach, John Tomase of WEEI.com writes. Former GM Ben Cherington built up talent in the Sox’ farm system but would probably have been reluctant to make such an aggressive trade. The Red Sox pursuing top free agent pitchers like Price, too, would have been unlikely under Cherington.
  • Trading so many prospects so early in his tenure represents a risk for Dombrowski, MacPherson writes. MacPherson cites Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who was new in town a few years back when his team sent a package that included DJ LeMahieu to Colorado for infielder Ian Stewart. “Those kind of mistakes happen when a regime comes in and they don’t know the guys as well,” says Hoyer. “They’re relying more on internal evaluations and scouting reports, third-hand information. Anytime you go to a new organization, those are your risks — and there are risks of being inactive because you’re worried about making mistakes, too.”
  • The Kimbrel deal was exactly the kind of trade Dombrowski was hired to make, writes Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Abraham notes that many commentators (like FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron and ESPN Insider’s Keith Law, for example) disliked the trade from the Red Sox’ perspective, but after two straight losing seasons, the Sox have tickets to sell, and Kimbrel will help sell them. For the Red Sox, prospects like Margot and Guerra were best viewed as trade chips.

Cafardo On Kapstein, Amaro, Mattingly, Zobrist, Kapler

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In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discussed the role of former Red Sox advisor Jeremy Kapstein. Newly installed club president Dave Dombrowski did not extend Kapstein’s contract. The former player agent had worked with the Red Sox for 14 years as a senior advisor of baseball projects. Kapstein once represented a number of top players and was among the first to use statistics in arbitration cases. He’ll seek a new role elsewhere.

Here’s more from the column:

  • Freshly minted first base and outfield coach Ruben Amaro Jr. is already familiar with many of Boston’s outfielders. While with the Phillies, he pursued Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and prospect Manuel Margot in trade negotiations for Cole Hamels. Former Phillies closer Brad Lidge noted that Amaro was comfortable spending time in the clubhouse with players, so he should adjust well to his new role.
  • Don Mattingly is the Marlins eighth manager in the last six seasons. The last manager, Dan Jennings, was recently let go after he was told he would return to his former job as GM. The club owes him about $2MM. Mattingly is said to have agreed to a four-year deal although financial details have yet to be disclosed. Marlins fans may recall the four-year, $10MM contract signed by Ozzie Guillen prior to 2012. It serves as a warning to Mattingly that a long term of contract or high AAV will not ensure job security in Miami.
  • As reported earlier this week, Ben Cherington has joined the sports management program at Columbia University. That hasn’t stopped the Pirates from pursuing him for a front office role. Cafardo wonders if Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro might show interest too. In my opinion, the Blue Jays job might not be a fit since Cherington walked away from a similar situation in Boston.
  • One AL executive worries about Ben Zobrist’s age. “Ben is 35 years old. He keeps in great shape and does the job, but he’s not someone you’re going to devote big dollars to over a long-term deal.” Of course, his agent, Alan Nero, believes a three or four-year deal should be well within reach. Nero and the Royals have not discussed an extension.
  • The Orioles will bring back pitching coach Dave Wallace. According to a source, manager Buck Showalter asked him to stay. The Orioles pitching staff had a rough season after outperforming their peripherals for a few years. Free agent Wei-Yin Chen will be difficult to replace if he signs elsewhere. The club also has to carefully manage top prospect Dylan Bundy. He’s missed most of the last three seasons after making a couple relief appearances as a 19-year-old in 2012. He’ll be out of options.
  • Team sources label Gabe Kapler has the leading candidate for the Dodgers managerial job. Kapler “speaks the same language” as president Andrew Friedman and they have an established working relationship. While Kapler has not managed in the majors, he “drew rave reviews” while managing with the Red Sox Single-A affiliate.

NL East Notes: Dietrich, Upton, Hamels, Papelbon

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Cole Hamels fired a no-hitter against the Cubs in what could have been his final start for the Phillies. Cubs manager Joe Maddon thinks the studly performance will help the Phillies to land a top prospect, tweets Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Meanwhile, the Nationals welcomed back Anthony Rendon, and the Braves activated Freddie Freeman. Washington also expects Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman to return soon.

Here’s more from the NL East:

  • The Marlins have drawn trade interest in utility fielder Derek Dietrich, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Miami would move him for the right return. Rosenthal adds that some teams view him as a potential starter at second or third base. Dietrich is hitting .301/.378/.548 in 82 plate appearances at the top level this season. The Marlins have used him as a platoon bat against right-handed pitchers while Dee Gordon recovers.
  • The Mets were rumored to be in pursuit of Padres outfielder Justin Upton, but nothing is imminent, writes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Upton is currently sidelined with a mild oblique strain. Lin lists Upton and Tigers outfielder Yoenis Cespedes as the top hitters on the market. The Mets have the worst offense of any contender, although tonight’s outburst should help the season numbers. They’re currently third to last in team wRC+. The Phillies and White Sox are the only teams trailing New York. The acquisition of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe will help, but only so much.
  • The market for Hamels includes the Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, and Rangers, writes Jayson Stark of ESPN. He mentions the Red Sox as non-traditional buyers with a desperate need to succeed in 2016. Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald tweets that some Phillies talent evaluators are “very high” on prospect Manuel Margot.
  • Earlier today, we learned the Nationals were interested in Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon. Add the Cubs and Blue Jays to the list of engaged clubs, writes Zolecki. Both Chicago and Toronto are practical fits for Papelbon who has said he won’t accept a trade to serve as a setup man. The Nationals would either need to change his mind or demote Drew Storen despite excellent performance.

Prospect Notes: Appel, Judge, Margot, Toussaint

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Mark Appel may have thrown his last pitch at the Double-A level, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports that the 2013 No. 1 overall pick is likely to be promoted to Triple-A following a strong Double-A showing on Sunday. Appel’s overall numbers aren’t great due to a pair of ugly starts in May, but as Drellich points out, the Stanford product has worked to a 2.17 ERA with a 24-to-8 K/BB ratio in 29 innings over his past five starts. Appel’s production at Triple-A will be worth monitoring, as Drellich also adds that the Astros want to assess their internal starting pitching options before exploring a trade for an upgrade.

Here’s more on Appel and some other top prospects filtering up toward the big leagues …

  • Appel spoke with MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart about his desire to join close friends and former Double-A teammates Lance McCullers, Vincent Velasquez and Carlos Correa in the Majors. He tells McTaggart that the key to his turnaround has been establishing his fastball earlier in counts in order to get ahead of hitters — something on which he has worked repeatedly with pitching coach Doug Brocail.
  • The Yankees have announced that slugger Aaron Judge will move up to Triple-A Scranton, as Jack Curry of the YES Network was first to report on Twitter. The massive outfielder cracked top-100 lists to start the year, and has performed well thus far in his first run at Double-A, slashing .284/.350/.516 with 12 home runs in 280 plate appearances.
  • Red Sox outfielder Manuel Margot has received a bump up to Double-A, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. The 20-year-old has slashed .282/.321/.420 and added twenty steals over his 198 turns at bat at the High-A level this year. Baseball America rated him the organization’s seventh-best prospect entering the year, crediting Margot with the potential to develop into a true five-tool performer who can play center field. We heard some chatter this spring that the Phillies were eyeing the interesting prospect as a possible piece in a Cole Hamels deal.
  • We saw a fascinating deal last weekend involving the effective sale of young righty Touki Toussaint from the Diamondbacks to the Braves. Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron discusses the deal in terms of prospect valuation. He reckons that Toussaint is probably worth about $20MM based on consensus prospect evaluations. While Arizona’s internal assessment may well have been lower, as Cameron notes, it still seems puzzling that the team cut bait given the organization’s current standing.
  • Diamondbacks chief baseball officer Tony La Russa weighed in on the Toussaint deal, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. La Russa says the move was all about opening budgetary space to improve the big league roster in the relatively near future. “The ability to to have some payroll flexibility is critical to adding a couple of pieces,” said La Russa. “I don’t think we’re going to need a lot of pieces because we’re going to develop with this core. But if you can make the right move or two with somebody, that brings a lot to the table. Payroll flexibility is important.” Toussaint was a ways off from contributing at the big league level, said the club’s top baseball decisionmaker, while the D’Backs “think [their future] is sooner rather than later.” All said, La Russa indicated that the club simply preferred to move the salary of Bronson Arroyo to holding onto the lottery ticket of a young arm. “We’re not pushing a five-year plan, which is what Touki is,” he said. “Does that mean, just in retrospect, since I was there, should I have told (former scouting director Ray Montgomery), ’Ray, don’t draft a Touki?’ Maybe I should have, but that was my first draft.” The 19-year-old (as of two days ago) Toussaint, of course, was the first name that Arizona called in last year’s amateur draft. Notably, as Piecoro has observed, this year’s selections were heavy on collegiate players.

Heyman’s Latest: A-Rod, BoSox, Bryant, Ventura, Gordon, Duda

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In this week’s edition of his Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports begins by looking at the contentious courtroom showdown that stands between Alex Rodriguez and as much as $30MM worth of home run milestone bonuses. As Heyman notes, people on all sides of the case have reasons to dislike A-Rod. Rodriguez filed a lawsuit (that was eventually dropped) against the MLBPA, and he parted ways with agent Scott Boras more than six years ago. The Yankees’ reasons for resenting Rodriguez are obvious, as are those of the league, with whom Rodriguez battled to reduce a 212-game suspension to a still-significant 162 game ban. Heyman looks at the arguments that can be made by both sides as well as the potential fallout once the situation is finally resolved.

Some highlights from the latest edition of Heyman’s newest weekly column…

  • Though the Red Sox aren’t blinking when it comes to trade talks with the Phillies regarding Cole Hamels, one rival GM considers Boston the favorite. The Phillies quite like center field prospect Manuel Margot, and Boston does have other nice pieces. Heyman notes that one scout actually expressed concern to him about Mookie Betts’ ability to hit the ball on the outer half of the plate, but the Sox remain steadfast in their refusal to part ways with Betts.
  • The Cubs aren’t concerned with a potential grievance being filed against them on behalf of Kris Bryant. Rather, their main concern is trying to find a way to extend him beyond his current allotment of team control. Heyman hears that Cubs are already considering trying to make him a Cub for life, though he also notes that it’s a bit early for those discussions.
  • White Sox skipper Robin Ventura signed an extension of an unreported length prior to the 2014 season, and Heyman now hears that Ventura is under contract through the 2016 season. The contract length is said to be of little importance to ChiSox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, who loves Ventura.
  • The Royals plan to try to do “whatever they can” to retain Alex Gordon beyond the 2015 season. The 32-year-old Gordon’s $12.5MM player option has increased to $13.25MM based on performance escalators, per Heyman. While Gordon has implied that he will exercise the option in the past, it’s exceptionally difficult to envision him merely picking up the option rather than trying for a highly lucrative multi-year deal. The Royals never felt they had a great shot at retaining James Shields, but their hope with Gordon is that the career Royal and Nebraska native might be easier to retain. Heyman adds that while the club is interested in trying to extend Salvador Perez beyond the 2019 season, those talks aren’t likely to come until after the season.
  • Juan Uribe is off to a decent start with the Dodgers, but the hot play of Alex Guerrero and the addition of Hector Olivera in Spring Training could eventually lead to Uribe becoming available on the trade market. Uribe’s at hasn’t lined up with his previous seasons to this point, but he’s hit a perhaps surprisingly strong .293/.333/.435 dating back to Opening Day 2013.
  • Rival executives are anxiously anticipating a Brewers fire sale following the club’s awful 5-17 start to the season, Heyman hears. One exec listed Carlos Gomez, Khris Davis, Jean Segura, Gerardo Parra, Kyle Lohse and Francisco Rodriguez as players who will draw interest, noting that Jonathan Lucroy is probably untouchable, while Matt Garza and Ryan Braun are somewhat overpriced.
  • The Mets were trying for a three-year extension that contained a club option and would’ve guaranteed Lucas Duda a bit shy of $30MM. I’d imagine that with Duda could end up the beneficiary in that scenario, particularly if he can sustain the increase in his walk rate and the more notable decrease in his strikeout rate.
  • Multiple Yankees people have shot down the notion that the team would pursue Hamels when asked by Heyman. One replied that the team is “not looking” at Hamels, while another wondered if Hamels is still a legitimate ace or more of just a big name.

East Notes: Brown, Margot, Hamels, Mujica, Tanaka

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The Phillies have optioned former All-Star Domonic Brown to Triple-A after his rehab stint came to a close. Brown broke out in 2013 but endured a rough season last year, and it now seems he’ll have to earn his way back onto the active roster. In spite of his troubles, writes David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, the 27-year-old has upside that remains worth trying to tap into for the rebuilding club.

Here’s more from the game’s eastern divisions:

  • The Phillies are sending former skipper Charlie Manuel to watch Red Sox minor leaguer Manuel Margot, Murphy reports. Margot, a rising prospect, could in theory be an important piece in a deal involving Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels, though at present that is a largely speculative connection. As WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, it is “intriguing” to consider whether the Phils would consider structuring a deal around Margot and, perhaps, one of Boston’s upper-level arms — a scenario that Peter Gammons suggested earlier in the winter (Twitter link).
  • As things stand, the Red Sox are not yet prepared to make a move for Hamels, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. But, says Lauber, the club should be prepared to do so — perhaps sooner than later. Indeed, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, things could be shaping up for an earlier-than-usual market, particularly with a number of possible Hamels suitors dealing with significant rotation issues.
  • There have been recent suggestions that struggling Red Sox reliever Edward Mujica may be in trouble of losing his roster spot, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweeted last night. But while a Boston roster move is expected today, tweets the Globe’s Nick Cafardo, it is not expected to be a DFA of the embattled righty.
  • The Yankees are among the clubs dealing with concerns in their starting five, due in large part to the enhanced uncertainty surrounding Masahiro Tanaka. As John Harper of the New York Daily News writes, the club is still hopeful that its ace will return this summer, though there is plenty of reason for skepticism. As Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com explains, the larger concern is perhaps whether Tanaka’s devastating splitter will ultimately prove an unsustainable offering in the long run. “That’s what’s made him successful, so that’s how he pitches so you have to deal with it,” said manager Joe Girardi.

Prospect Rumor Roundup: July 2 Prospects

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Hardcore fans will be eagerly anticipating July 2, 2013. That date represents the first day that Major League Baseball teams can sign this year's crop of international free agents, many of whom recently turned (or will be turning) 16 years old and are in line for seven-figure bonuses. No one covers the international market better than Baseball America's Ben Badler, who has been busy compiling information on all the key international prospects. Follow this link to read up on the cream of the crop for the 2013 signing period.

Badler has been following the international free agent market for a number of years now and has educated fans on quite a few Latin amateurs who have gone on to become top prospects in their respective organizations. Much like selecting players in the annual North American amateur draft, dabbling in the international market comes with a great deal of risk — especially given how raw many of these teenagers can be when they sign their first contracts. Not surprisingly, it can take years for these particular prospects to develop.

Like the amateur draft, the rules changed for the international market in 2012 to include a spending limit, which has significantly reduced the bonuses. Taking a look back at Baseball America's top international prospects list from 2011 — the last year that teams could spend freely without restrictions and penalties — we find a number of players that have become top prospects and intriguing sleepers. Below is a look at some of the best 2011 signees, as of this date, and numbered by Badler's original pre-July 2 talent ranking.

1. Elier Hernandez, OF, Kansas City: Despite being given the third highest bonus in the signing class at $3MM, Hernandez struggled in his 2012 debut and hit just .208 with 66 strikeouts in 60 games. He has returned to the same Rookie ball club for the 2013 season and is hitting .308 through six games, but has eight strikeouts and no walks.

2. Ronald Guzman, 1B, Texas Rangers: Texas signed two Latin players in 2011 for a total of more than $8MM, and Guzman received a $3.5 MM payday, good for the second highest bonus overall. Assigned to full-season ball in 2013, the outfielder-turned-first-baseman didn't play until the end of May thanks to an injury. Guzman, 18, came out swinging and is hitting .333 in his first 19 games, although he has yet to tap into his raw power and has walked just two times. Jason Cole of Lonestar Ball interviewed Guzman earlier this month and caught it on video.

3. Victor Sanchez, RHP, Seattle Mariners: The hard-throwing Sanchez has had little trouble with professional hitters to date. He allowed just 69 hits and a 3.18 ERA in 85 Rookie ball innings in 2012. He currently features a 2.43 ERA with just six walks in 40 2/3 innings of work in A-ball. He missed about a month of the '13 season after being placed on the temporarily inactive list. Rick Randall of Lookout Landing took an in-depth look at some of the Mariners' lesser-known prospects in April — including Sanchez.

4. Roberto Osuna, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays: Signed out of the Mexican League for a bonus of $1.5 MM, Osuna has flashed a mature approach on the mound and has been quite reliable when healthy. Unfortunately, he was shut down for a short period of time earlier this year when a small tear was discovered in his throwing elbow. Rather than undergo Tommy John surgery, the organization chose to try rest and rehab — a similar approach that was taken with former Yankees prospect Arodys Vizcaino, which merely delayed the inevitable. Gregor Chisholm and Teddy Cahill of MLB.com took a look at Osuna shortly after he returned from his rehab.

5. Wuilmer Becerra, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Becerra was given a $1.3 MM signing bonus. His North American debut in 2012 was cut short when he was hit in the face by an errant pitch and required surgery. He was then traded to the New York Mets during the offseason as part of the package for Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. In April, Mike Kerwick provided a piece for Baseball America (subscription required) that detailed the high hopes that the Mets front office has for the young prospect, who's back playing the Gulf Coast League in 2013.

6. Dawel Lugo, SS, Toronto Blue Jays: The third player signed by the Jays for more than $1MM, Lugo is repeating Rookie ball in 2013, although he's moved up to a more advanced league. He's off to a hot start with 11 hits in his first six games in the Appalachian League and is firmly in the conversation for the Jays' shortstop of the future.

10. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers: Given the largest bonus among the projected top prospects in the 2011 class, Mazara received a whopping $5 MM bonus. He's now one of the youngest players in full-season A-ball after spending the 2012 season in Rookie ball. The outfielder has flashed some intriguing power at times but he's also experienced some growing pains with a .246 batting average and 75 strikeouts in 71 games.

12. Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals: The son of former big leaguer Raul Mondesi, the prospect formerly known as Adalberto originally signed for $2MM. He came stateside in 2012 and more than held his own as a 17 year old in Rookie ball by posting a .733 OPS and .290 batting average. It's been a little tougher for him in 2013 at the A-ball level. He's struck out 71 times in 66 games but is warming up with the weather and has a .292 batting average in June. Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com checked in with Mondesi after he hit for the cycle in late May.

14. Dorssys Paulino, SS, Cleveland Indians: Paulino wowed talent evaluators during his pro debut in 2012 and found himself on a number of top prospects lists. Signed for $1.1MM, the teenager hit .355 during his Rookie ball debut and even earned a late-season promotion to the more advanced New York Penn League. Promoted to A-ball in 2013, Paulino has struggled with a .594 OPS in 63 games. On the plus side, his numbers have improved a little bit with each passing month. Guy Cipriano of the Cleveland New-Herald penned a piece on Paulino and his efforts to adjust to life in North America and as a professional baseball player.

16. Manuel Margot, OF, Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox took a more cautious approach with Margot than a number of organizations did with other prospects on this list. He opened his pro career in the Dominican Summer League in 2012 before moving all the way up into the New York Penn League this summer. The teenager has teased talent evaluators with a four-tool approach and outstanding athletic ability. Alex Speier, writing for WEEI.com, looked at the Red Sox difficult decision on where to assign Margot for the 2013 season.

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