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Cardinals Looking For Outfielders, Prefer Lefty Bats

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The Cardinals weren’t one of the league’s better-hitting teams in general last season, and in particular struggled against right-handed pitching.  For that reason, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold) that “if we could find a way to get a little more lefthanded, we would be encouraged to do that.  So, I think people feel that they’re a little too lefthanded [in their lineup] then it might make sense for us to be talking.”  Mozeliak hinted that the Cards would prefer to add a lefty bat in a trade rather than through the free agent market, though trade talks have been “slow” to date.

To this end, Goold reports that the Cardinals have been looking to add a left-handed hitting outfielder in exchange for a package that would include at least one of their young right-handed hitting outfielders.  Looking at such players on the Cards’ 40-man roster, Harrison Bader, Jose Martinez, Yairo Munoz, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, and Rangel Ravelo are all either full-time outfielders or at least have some outfield experience, leaving St. Louis with a wealth of possible trade chips for trades large or small.

By contrast, the Rangers are a team with a surplus of left-handed outfielders, and Goold reports that Texas and St. Louis have indeed been in talks.  The Cards’ ideal acquisition would be both relatively inexpensive and capable of playing every day.  The latter issue could keep the Cardinals from pursuing someone like the Dodgers’ Joc Pederson, in Goold’s view, given Pederson’s struggles at hitting lefty pitching (though I would submit that the Cards would certainly seem to have enough right-handed hitting depth to find a platoon partner for Pederson in center field).

Of course, the Cardinals would get an immediate boost against right-handed pitching if their most prominent left-handed hitter returned to his old form after a disastrous 2019 season.  Mozeliak revealed that Matt Carpenter has begun an offseason training program to add both weight and strength, after tests from the performance department revealed that Carpenter declined in both areas over the course of the season.  “He’s one of those types of players that has a hard time holding weight,” Mozeliak said.  “One of the things that we’ve tried to do this offseason is find a strength program that we think could work for him so he can maintain that.  As the season unfolds, it’s something that we’ll need to be conscious of and intentional about to try to keep that up.”

In addition to their search for lefty bats, the Cardinals are still interested in a very prominent right-handed bat in Marcell Ozuna.  Mozeliak felt his club was “still in the game,” for the free agent slugger, saying “we’re not closing any doors.  Doors may get closed, but it’s not our doing.”  The Reds, Braves, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and White Sox have all been mentioned as interested parties in the Ozuna market, and with reports indicating that the bidding could go as high as five years, it seems hard to imagine St. Louis is willing to truly break the bank to re-sign Ozuna.  Since Ozuna rejected the qualifying offer, the Cardinals will obtain an extra pick (roughly between the 75th-85th overall selections) in the 2020 draft should Ozuna sign elsewhere.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Ozuna, Pirates, Hamels

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The Yankees have made a notable addition to their player development staff, hiring Rachel Balkovec to serve as a minor league hitting coach, reports Lindsay Berra of The New York Times. Balkovec, 32, played college softball with both Creighton and New Mexico and went on to earn two master’s degrees in kinesiology and the science of human movement. She broke into the industry as the Cardinals’ minor league strength and conditioning coordinator and landed a job with the Astros in Latin America after teaching herself Spanish. With Houston, she would meet Dillon Lawson, who now works as the Yankees’ hitting coordinator and recommended Balkovec for the job. She has also worked with Driveline Baseball, conducting research on hitters’ eye tracking and pitchers’ hip movement, which she hopes to apply in her work with the Yankees. As Berra writes, Balkovec is believed to be the first woman employed as a full-time hitting coach at any level of professional baseball. She’ll begin her work in earnest when spring training rolls around in February.

  • Free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna could be in line for a five-year deal, according to J.P. Morosi of MLB Network (video via Twitter). Interestingly, Morosi also names a market of five teams that have expressed preliminary interest in the 29-year-old slugger—which includes a few teams that haven’t been mentioned as obvious suitors for Ozuna. It’ll come as no surprise that the Cardinals remain connected to Ozuna, but Morosi also lists the Rangers, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Braves as teams that could pursue him. Five years still feels a bit optimistic for a player who has yet to show that the career-best numbers he put up in 2017 are repeatable; MLBTR tabbed Ozuna for a three-year deal at the outset of the offseason. However, it’s hadly surprising that Ozuna is drawing his fair share of interest, given his age and raw skills.
  • The Pirates are no longer considering Joey Cora for their unfilled manager post, Tweets Enrique Rojas of ESPN. That leaves Twins bench coach Derek Shelton and the Rays’ Matt Quatraro atop GM Ben Cherington’s wish list. Cora has worked as a coach within the Bucs organization for the last several years, first as the Double-A skipper and later as a base coach for the big league team. His ascent up the coaching ladder will be temporarily put on hold, with the Pirates apparently turning their focus to external candidates. The Pirates’ is the last remaining managerial vacancy, so it looks like they won’t have to compete with other clubs for Quatraro or Shelton—assuming they are willing to leave their current employers.
  • Turning our attention to free agent pitchers, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark is hearing from Cole Hamels’s agent that the 35-year-old southpaw is a hot commodity, having drawn inquiries from as many as 14 teams. We’ll see just how much of this rumbling is a representative trying to drive up the price for his client, but it’s not hard to see why Hamels has a robust market. There’s no shortage of clubs vying for help in the starting rotation, and Hamels provides exactly that while coming at a considerably lower cost than consensus top options like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler: Hamels doesn’t come saddled with a qualifying offer, and, at age 35, won’t rival the market’s juggernauts in contract length or yearly value. For pitching-needy teams that have balked at the asking prices for Cole, Strasburg, and Wheeler, Hamels represents a short-term, reasonably-priced alternative who’s shown he can still hang.

Marlins Notes: Free Agents, Castellanos, Urena, Chen, Mejia

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While the Marlins have made it clear that upgrading the offense is a priority this winter, the team would prefer to stay away from long-term contracts so as not to block its younger position players, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes.  Any number of veterans could fit as short-term adds for 2020, though it does mean the Marlins likely won’t be signing Marcell Ozuna or Nicholas Castellanos, two free agents Miami was rumored to have interest in signing.  Jackson notes that the Fish aren’t keen to give up the draft pick necessary to sign Ozuna (who rejected a Cardinals’ qualifying offer), while Castellanos is probably also unlikely, though the Marlins “could enter the bidding if he’s still available in a few weeks and willing to accept a shorter deal.”  One would imagine that if Castellanos was open to a short-term deal, however, he might prefer to take such a contract with a contending team rather than the rebuilding Marlins.

Some more from South Beach…

  • Also from Jackson’s piece, “the Marlins are leaning toward tendering” a contract to Jose Urena, who is projected for a $4MM salary in arbitration this offseason.  After solid results in 2017-18, Urena struggled to a 5.21 ERA over 84 2/3 innings in a season hampered by injury, and it’s possible Miami could now opt to use him as a reliever rather than the rotation.  Even for a low-payroll team like the Marlins, $4MM doesn’t seem like too expensive a sum for a pitcher with Urena’s resume, though Jackson notes that Miami could tender Urena a contract now and then release him before Opening Day (thus paying only a fraction of his agreed-upon salary) if they don’t like what they see in Spring Training.
  • After a busy day of roster additions and subtractions on Wednesday, president of baseball operations Michael Hill discussed the team’s moves with reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro and Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel).  The most notable transactions was Wei-Yin Chen being designated for assignment, which all but officially ended the southpaw’s disappointing tenure in Miami after signing a five-year, $80MM deal in the 2015-16 offseason.  Chen still has one year and $22MM remaining on that contract, though the DFA “was not about money.  It was about building the best and deepest 40-man roster to allow us to compete in 2020 and beyond,” Hill said.  Since Chen wasn’t expected to be a big contributor next season and his trade value was virtually non-existent, it isn’t a shock that the Marlins felt that Chen’s roster spot was better used to protect a young player from the Rule 5 Draft.
  • All in all, six players were added to the 40-man in advance of the Rule 5 deadline — shortstop Jazz Chisholm, first baseman Lewin Diaz, and right-handers Sixto Sanchez, Nick Neidert, Humberto Mejia and Edward Cabrera.  It seems like Mejia was the only member of the group who wasn’t a no-brainer, as his inclusion on the 40-man “took a lot of discussion among our group,” Hill said. “He battled injuries in his history, but you’re talking about a very physical right-handed pitcher with three pitches and he’s an extreme strike-thrower.  We feel he’s a future major league starter and we didn’t think we should leave that profile exposed.”  As Hill noted, Mejia “pitched his way onto the roster” following a strong 2019 season that saw the righty post a 2.09 ERA over 90 1/3 innings at the A-ball and high-A ball levels.

NL Notes: Ozuna, Braves, Marlins, Reds, D-backs, Souza

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The Braves “have some interest” in free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, hears Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Atlanta joins the previously-known Cardinals, Reds, White Sox, Rangers, and Marlins in the early sweepstakes for the corner outfielder. Atlanta already re-signed Nick Markakis, but he could be in line for a lesser role after a subpar age-36 season. Alternatively, Atlanta could move Ronald Acuña to center field full-time should they acquire another corner outfielder, be it Ozuna or someone else. Signing the 29-year-old Ozuna, a qualifying offer recipient, would cost the Braves their second-highest draft choice and $500K of international bonus pool space.

More from the National League…

  • The Marlins hired Eddy Rodríguez as catching coach, as first reported by Craig Mish of SiriusXM (via Twitter). Rodríguez, 33, is a former University of Miami catcher who made it to the majors for two games with the 2012 Padres. He retired as a player after the 2017 season, having logged parts of 11 minor league seasons. Rodríguez spent 2019 as the Angels’ minor league catching coordinator.
  • The Reds plan to bolster their pitching depth this offseason, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. While the club’s main focus figures to be offensive upgrades, GM Nick Krall stressed to Nightengale the importance of stockpiling arms. “Every year, most teams use seven or eight starters,” Krall said. “Most teams use 12 relievers that have significant time. You can’t overlook that.” To that end, Nightengale expects Cincinnati to add a starter and a reliever or two, although it isn’t clear if those additions will be via MLB free agency, trade, or a handful of minor-league free agent signings.
  • Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza, Jr. is back to running at full speed, the 30-year-old himself tweeted. It’s a good sign, as Souza missed all of 2019 after tearing multiple ligaments in his left knee in spring training. That followed up a disappointing debut in the desert, in which Souza slashed just .220/.309/.369 in 272 plate appearances. Coming off back-to-back lost seasons and projected to make $4.125MM in arbitration, Souza could be a non-tender candidate this offseason. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored, the Diamondbacks have quite a few difficult decisions to make in the coming weeks to sort out their outfield mix.

Marlins “Believed” To Have Interest In Castellanos, Ozuna

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TODAY: The Marlins are also “considering” a reunion with Marcell Ozuna, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Since Ozuna rejected the Cardinals’ qualifying offer, however, FNTSY Radio’s Craig Mish doesn’t believe the Marlins would give up the required draft pick compensation to sign the outfielder.

MONDAY: The Marlins are looking to add a position player to their everyday lineup, as the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reported last week, and the team is “believed” to have interest in free agent right fielder Nicholas Castellanos, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes today.

Miami would presumably have to overpay in order to persuade a fairly notable free agent to sign a multi-year deal in the midst of a rebuild, but the fit makes sense for a few reasons. Beyond the sheer fact that the Marlins’ offense in 2019 was horrific, Castellanos is a Miami-area native. He attended high school a mere 25 miles from Marlins park, so signing in Miami would likely hold more appeal to him than to the standard free agent. He’s also an unusually young free agent at 27 years of age (28 in March), so he’d theoretically still be in his prime years when Miami seeks to emerge from its rebuild. Castellanos was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, so he won’t cost the rebuilding Marlins any draft picks. (Although, notably, president of baseball ops Michael Hill suggested last week that a qualifying offer may not be the detriment most would expect.)

On the other side of the equation, Castellanos’ enthusiasm over being in a pennant race with the Cubs can’t be ignored. He’s spent most of his career on a cellar-dwelling Tigers club and was outspoken on multiple occasions about what it meant to him to play meaningful games in September. At least as far as the 2020 season goes, that’s not really a selling point the Marlins can include in their pitch (hence the previously mentioned need to overpay).

Signing Castellanos or any other corner outfielder — Avisail Garcia, Corey Dickerson and old friend Marcell Ozuna are among the alternatives — would likely mean keeping third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson on the infield. Anderson, 26, has emerged as a potential building block himself and is the team’s clear best position player at the moment. Teaming him and Castellanos up in the heart of the order would assuredly give the Marlins improved offensive output, and the Marlins can easily afford to pursue such an arrangement. Miami has a ridiculously low $26.75MM committed to the 2020 roster $22MM to Wei-Yin Chen and $4.75MM to Miguel Rojas) and just $5MM in 2021 (plus $3MM per year to the Yankees for Giancarlo Stanton).

In fact, Miami’s payroll is so low, they’ll likely feel pressured to spend some money in the offseason. The MLBPA raised concerns about the team’s use of its revenue-sharing profits two seasons ago when payroll was substantially higher, and they’re currently on pace to have a league-low $52.79MM payroll in 2020 (including three arbitration-eligible players, 21 pre-arbitration players and the Stanton payout). Miami’s $63MM Opening Day payroll in 2019 was already the lowest in the Majors, and a further reduction could once again call the team’s allocation of its revenue-sharing funds into question.

Castellanos split the 2019 season between the Tigers and the Cubs, hitting a combined .289/.337/.525 — including a ridiculous .321/.356/.646 following his trade to Chicago. His right-field defense is regarded as well below-average, though the 2019 season was only his second year at the position after moving there from third base (and his numbers improved dramatically from 2018 to 2019).

7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

Reds To Give Consideration To Qualifying Offer Recipients

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Following a 2018-2019 offseason that saw the club focus primarily on pitching additions, offensive improvement is expected to be a chief initiative for the Reds this winter. With that goal in mind, the club will not rule out signing free agents attached to a qualifying offer this offseason, as team president of baseball operations Dick Williams indicated at this week’s GM Meetings (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Although signing a QO-laden free agent would require the Reds to forfeit their third-highest pick in the 2020 First-Year Player Draft, the club does not apparently view that cost as strictly prohibitive:

“We’re very aware of the guys who will have rejected qualifying offers and what that means for the economics of what we’re willing to pay,” Williams said. “I think that’s how the system is set up. That is something we’ll definitely factor in. It doesn’t prevent us from talking to any player. We don’t look at it that way.”

This public stance is especially pertinent considering today marks the deadline for qualifying offer recipients to accept or decline their QO. Four of the ten players who received offers are position players, including first baseman Jose Abreu, third baseman Josh Donaldson, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Given that Cincinnatti’s needs at first and third are likely to be handled by Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto for the next several years, Ozuna may be left as the presumptive reference point to Williams’ comments.

The early market for Ozuna, in particular, has been said to potentially feature as many as a quarter of MLB teams, perhaps revealing that, like the Reds, clubs are feeling slightly less gunshy about this year’s crop of QO-attached free agents overall. Cincinnati has a wide array of potential avenues to explore in improving their cast of position players, with the outfield, catcher, and second base spots all likely to receive some level of attention this winter.

Latest On Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna

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There is little doubt that Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna have the most earning power among free-agent outfielders. In MLBTR’s estimation, they’re the only outfielders who look like strong bets to even land $20MM guarantees this winter. We have Castellanos signing for $58MM over four years and Ozuna receiving a three-year, $45MM contract.

Compared to Ozuna, Castellanos has two obvious factors working in his favor: He’s younger (Castellanos will turn 28 in March, while Ozuna’s 29th birthday was on Tuesday) and there’s no qualifying offer weighing him down. The Cardinals, Ozuna’s most recent team, hit him with a $17.8MM QO aftter the season. Assuming he rejects it by Thursday’s deadline, which looks likely, Ozuna’s next club would have to surrender draft compensation to sign him. As for Castellanos, he was part of a trade during the 2019 campaign, going from the Tigers to the Cubs, so he was ineligible to receive a QO this offseason.

Regardless of whom you prefer, both Castellanos and Ozuna figure to draw plenty of interest now that the offseason is underway. The Reds are one team that seems to like both: Already known to have Ozuna on their radar, they’re also eyeing Castellanos, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Either would give the playoff-desperate Reds a much-needed established option in the corner outfield, where the talented but largely unproven Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino look like their best choices at the moment.

The Reds and Cardinals are two of at least a half-dozen teams open to a deal with Ozuna, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, who also names the White Sox and Rangers among the intrigued clubs. The White Sox’s interest isn’t remotely surprising. After all, they’re trying to transition from rebuilding to contending, but doing so will be difficult without significantly improving an outfield that finished dead last in the majors in fWAR (0.9) in 2019, when rookie Eloy Jimenez was their lone bright spot in the grass.

Likewise, the Rangers have one immensely valuable outfield building block (Joey Gallo), but it’s otherwise up in the air who will comprise the unit with him in 2020. Hunter Pence is a free agent (and more of.a designated hitter nowadays); Shin-Soo Choo’s more cut out for a DH role; Nomar Mazara has disappointed and may not even be a Ranger in 2020; Willie Calhoun and Danny Santana don’t have set positions; and Delino DeShields is coming off yet another rough offensive season. All that said, there’s room for Texas to make at least one notable addition in the outfield, and with the team set to christen a new stadium in 2020, perhaps Ozuna will end up as one of its buzzworthy pickups.

Reds Interested In Marcell Ozuna

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It’s been six years since the Reds have made the playoffs or even finished .500 in a season. President Dick Williams has made it no secret the team’s aiming to turn it around ASAP, though, which could set up for an active Reds winter. Improving a weak offense figures to be Cincinnati’s main focus over the coming months. The Reds’ outfield is one of multiple areas of concern, so it’s no surprise they seem to be looking to bolster that area of their roster. They’re among the teams interested in free agent Marcell Ozuna – arguably the top outfielder available – Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

For Ozuna to actually reach free agency, he’ll first have to reject the Cardinals’ $17.8MM qualifying offer by Thursday. That looks like a near certainty, however, and if it does happen and the Reds do sign Ozuna, they’d have to surrender their third-highest draft pick along with however much it could cost to win the bidding for him. MLBTR forecasts a three-year, $45MM contract for Ozuna, who has an extensive track record of quality production and, along with Nicholas Castellanos, looks like the best free-agent outfielder in this winter’s class. The 29-year-old Ozuna slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs, 12 steals and 2.6 fWAR across 549 plate appearances in 2019, during which he graded as a Statcast darling.

Whether the Reds get Ozuna or someone else, it’ll be an eye-opener if they don’t land at least one somewhat prominent outfielder this offseason. They’re stuck with a largely unproven group at the moment, as no one from the Nick Senzel–Aristides Aquino–Jesse Winker trio has established himself as a truly capable big league starter yet. Speculatively, if the Reds were to sign Ozuna, he could take over left field, leaving RF to a platoon consisting of the lefty-swinging Winker and the righty-hitting Aquino.

Marcell Ozuna Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer

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Outfielder Marcell Ozuna intends to decline the $17.8MM qualifying offer and test the open market, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’s said to have received sufficient interest to believe he’ll top the QO in free agency, even with the drag of draft compensation.

Ozuna’s suitors will need to factor in some lost draft assets if they sign him; the precise hit depends upon the team. But with nearly a quarter of the MLB outfits showing some level of interest, per Heyman, it seems the circumstances will create enough bidding to get Ozuna a lengthier contract.

It’s still hard to tell just how things will shake out for a player who has some very strong attributes but also some clear demerits. And it doesn’t help that he’s entering a market filled almost to a bizarre level with roughly similar players. Fellow youthful corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, and Yasiel Puig are also looking for new homes. None will be saddled with draft compensation.

While Ozuna has stung the ball repetitively in recent years, he has produced at merely above-average levels. It doesn’t take much to imagine Ozuna slugging again like he did in 2017; after all, he only just reached his 29th birthday today. But it’s also easy to view that standout campaign as a clear outlier, since he hasn’t otherwise produced consistently at anything close to a 143 wRC+ level. Plus, Ozuna’s once-strong defensive chops have taken a hit as he has lost speed and dealt with shoulder problems, though there’s still reason to hope he’ll be a capable defender for a few more years.

Here at MLBTR, we expect the market to treat Ozuna well — just perhaps not quite as well as once seemed possible. We guessed he’d take down a three-year, $45MM pact even after accounting for the draft hit, with teams such as the Giants, Marlins, Reds, Padres, Indians, Tigers, and Royals positioned as plausible contenders for his services.

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