Marcell Ozuna

Free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna is “very unlikely” to accept the $17.8MM qualifying offer made to him by the Cardinals, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ozuna was seen as one of the few recipients who could consider accepting the one-year deal, but Heyman suggests that there is a robust market for Ozuna’s services.

While it was perhaps never likely that Ozuna would take the qualifying offer to stick around in St. Louis for another year, he stood out as one of the ten QO recipients who could be a candidate to accept in lieu of entering the open market. Ozuna’s retractors might pin the outfielder as one of the hitters who could suffer most in baseball’s notoriously stingy free agency; as a solid but unspectacular hitter who won’t carry a lineup and who doesn’t stand out on defense, critics might put him in Mike Moustakas territory.

That’s not to say he doesn’t offer any value. Ozuna is just two years removed from a breakout season in Miami’s pitcher-friendly ballpark. While he’s no longer the Gold Glover he was in 2017, Ozuna still grades out solidly as a defensive outfielder. By free agent standards, he’s on the younger side, and there’s reason to believe that he’s capable of more than the .241/.328/.472 line he posted in his second year in St. Louis; his .382 expected wOBA far outclassed his actual .336 mark, suggesting that Ozuna’s true talent level is a notch above his Cardinals output.

Assuming that Ozuna indeed elects to hit free agency, it’s not a foregone conclusions that the 28-year-old will play in a new uniform next year. Ozuna has expressed his desire to remain with the Cardinals, and while the organization has been less steadfast in their interest, it has been recently reported that the two sides are prepared to discuss a multiyear contract. By virtue of extending the QO, the club has demonstrated a willingness to keep Ozuna at a considerable cost, but only for one year—we’ll see how far they’re willing to go on a multiyear commitment.

Otherwise, Ozuna will reach free agency for the first time with a compensatory draft pick attached to him. We’ve seen in recent years that this additional price has been a deterrent for mid-range free agents, and Ozuna’s market will no doubt take a hit as a result, though to what extent it’s not clear. Regardless of the draft pick, Ozuna has plenty of desirable qualities that should make him an attractive target to a flurry of clubs, like Heyman notes; MLBTR projects Ozuna to receive a three year, $45MM contract—while that’s a lower projection that other outlets, such a deal would still give Ozuna the second-highest payday among free agent corner outfielders (behind only Nick Castellanos).

Cardinals left fielder Marcell Ozuna was one of 10 players to receive a qualifying offer before the deadline Monday. Should he turn it down, Ozuna will reach free agency with draft-pick compensation hanging over his head. But if Ozuna accepts, he’d return to the Cardinals in 2020 on a $17.8MM price tag. As of now, though, there’s at least some chance of a multiyear contract between the Cardinals and Ozuna that would negate the qualifying offer. The club has recently talked with Ozuna’s agent, Melvin Roman of MDR Sports Management, and will meet again with him in the next 10 days to explore a new contract, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Ozuna has until Nov. 14 to take or reject the QO.

This is the first reported instance of the Cardinals showing serious interest in re-signing Ozuna, undoubtedly one of the premier unsigned position players in baseball. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Ozuna has made it known on multiple occasions he’d like to stay in St. Louis, where he has played since the Cardinals acquired him from the Marlins entering the 2018 campaign.

Ozuna was coming off a tremendous season when the Cardinals traded for him, though he has been more good than exemplary since then. He’s now on the heels of a 2.8-fWAR campaign in which he hit .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and a personal-best 12 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. Ozuna’s production led to a 110 wRC+, meaning he was 10 percent better than the league-average offensive player. That’s obviously closer to solid than stellar, but the longtime Statcast darling did continue to thrive in that regard this season. Ozuna’s expected weighted on-base average (.382) blew past his real wOBA (.336) and ranked in the top 8 percent of baseball. His hard-hit rate (49.2 percent) was even better, defeating all but 4 percent of hitters.

Ozuna’s reps are likely to push his Statcast excellence when trying to secure a new deal for their client. And MLBTR expects Ozuna to do fairly well on the market despite a QO, as his projection (three years, $45MM) ranks as our 11th-highest guarantee among free agents and falls behind just one other corner outfielder (Nicholas Castellanos) in a market rife with flawed options. Whether the Cardinals would dole out that type of money over a multiyear period is up in the air, but by extending a QO, they’ve already shown a willingness to keep Ozuna around at a pricey figure for at least another season. For now, with Ozuna’s status in limbo, the reigning National League Central champions count Dexter Fowler, Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Lane Thomas, Yairo Munoz, Randy Arozarena and coveted prospect Dylan Carlson among their outfield options who remain under control.

Pending free-agent left fielder Marcell Ozuna has made it known he’d prefer to re-sign with the Cardinals, but it doesn’t look likely with free agency approaching. The Cardinals won’t be making an effort to re-up Ozuna to a long-term contract before the market opens in a couple weeks, Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription link). They are, however, likely to issue Ozuna a $17.8MM qualifying offer, according to Saxon.

[RELATED – FA Outlook: Marcell Ozuna]

If the Cardinals do hit Ozuna with a QO and he accepts, they’ll keep him for 2020. Otherwise, rejecting would enable Ozuna to head to free agency as arguably the most appealing corner outfielder available in a class that will also include Nicholas Castellanos and Yasiel Puig, among others. In a best-case scenario for Ozuna, St. Louis will pass on doling out the QO, as saddling him with one would force another team to give up draft-pick compensation in signing him. As we’ve seen in recent offseasons, clubs generally aren’t enthusiastic about losing draft capital while simultaneously having to fork over a sizable contract.

In the event Ozuna does get to free agency with a QO attached, he’ll still have a case for one of the offseason’s top paydays. Set to turn 29 next month, Ozuna’s coming off his fifth season with at least 2.6 fWAR since he debuted with the Marlins in 2013. Ozuna continued a trend of above-average (but not spectacular) offensive production in 2019, as he slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. If we’re to believe Statcast, there may be more in the tank – Ozuna’s expected weighted on-base average (.379) far outpaced his real wOBA (.340) and ranked in the majors’ 91st percentile. He was also near the apex of the league in average exit velocity (91.8 mph; 93rd percentile) and hard-hit percentage (49.2; 96th percentile), among other Statcast metrics.

While Ozuna hasn’t been able to replicate the star-caliber 2017 he enjoyed with the Marlins during his two years as a Cardinal, his output would still be a challenge for the Redbirds to replace. St. Louis does have several other outfielders in the mix, though, and it’s not a guarantee the club will aggressively pursue outside help in the wake of an Ozuna exit. With Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Lane Thomas, Yairo Munoz, Randy Arozarena and high-end prospect Dylan Carlson among options under control for next season, the Cardinals “have no intention of adding to the outfield glut” this winter, Saxon writes.

Marcell Ozuna will be a free agent for the first time in his career this winter, but the slugging corner outfielder doesn’t sound eager to play elsewhere next season. Asked by Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about a possible return to the Cardinals in 2020 and beyond, Ozuna candidly replied: “That’s my priority. My agents just have to do their job.”

It’s not the first time that Ozuna has voiced a preference to remain with the Cardinals, but his most recent statements were more emphatic than previous comments on the matter. Hummel also chats with Ozuna about the excitement over his first pennant race before talking with Adam Wainwright about the team’s young arms, so Cards fans will want to check out the column in its entirety.

Ozuna will have age on his side in free agency, as he won’t turn 29 until November. He also may have rediscovered the pop he lost during a 2018 season that was marred by shoulder troubles; Ozuna slugged 37 homers with a .237 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) in 2017 but managed to connect on just 23 round-trippers with a .153 ISO in 2018. This year, he’s batted at a .255/.333/.496 clip with 26 home runs and a .241 ISO through 465 plate appearances (but missed time due to fractured fingers). He’s also walking at a career-best 10.4 percent clip and has swiped a career-best 12 bases in just 13 attempts.

The Cardinals (and other interested suitors) will be tasked with determining whether improved health in Ozuna’s shoulder led to that restored pop or whether the reemergence of his power stroke is more closely linked to changes to the composition of the 2019 baseball that have resulted in a league-wide home run boom. Both have probably contributed to some degree, but each team could figures to have a varying view on the extent to which each of those factors has impacted Ozuna’s output. Those opinions and projections will inform the strength of offers he receives on the open market.

Another critical factor for Ozuna will be draft-pick compensation, as it seems probable that the Cardinals will issue him a one-year qualifying offer. This year’s QO will fall around the $18MM mark, but Ozuna and his reps at MDR Sports Management will likely feel that a more substantial guarantee awaits in free agency (even if it’s not quite at such a hefty annual value). Ozuna’s $12.25MM salary for the 2019 season has pushed his career earnings north of $26MM, giving him plenty of financial security if and when he declines the QO and explores the open market. Ozuna checked in at No. 8 on the July update to MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings.

Of course, it takes two sides to make a deal, and looking at the situation from the Cardinals’ vantage point, it’s less clear that an Ozuna reunion will be a priority. Dexter Fowler is still owed $33MM through 2021 (including the annualized payouts of his deferred signing bonus), and his $82.5MM contract included full no-trade protection. As such, he’s unlikely to be moved and can be expected to hold down one of the outfield spots in 2020 with a fair degree of regularity. Meanwhile, 24-year-old slugger Tyler O’Neill seems ready for a legitimate audition in left field, even if his strikeout issues remain a concern. St. Louis also has one of the game’s premier defenders in center (Harrison Bader), one of the game’s best outfield prospects (Dylan Carlson) and a slew of utility options/part-time outfield options.

Re-signing Ozuna could allow president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch the opportunity to trade from that impressive crop of outfield talent, but there’s an easy argument that the Cards are better off taking the draft pick and allocating those financial resources elsewhere. Both Wainwright and Michael Wacha will be free agents at season’s end — Wacha tells Hummel he’d also like to return — and the bullpen has been an ongoing need in St. Louis despite considerable front-office efforts to improve it. The Cardinals already have $139MM committed to the 2020 season, not including modest first-time arbitration raises for righties John Gant and John Brebbia. This year’s payroll sits at roughly $165MM, so it’d certainly be defensible to see them forgo a weighty annual salary for Ozuna and spend their remaining dollars to bolster the pitching staff.

This has been a solid but injury-shortened season for Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who ranks among the game’s best pending free-agent position players. Although Ozuna could have a chance to shop his services around the majors in a few months, the soon-to-be 29-year-old would like to remain with the Cardinals, Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription required).

“I hope to stay here,” Ozuna told Saxon. “Let’s see how the season goes and how much I can help the team, but my preference is to stay here. I like the team, the city of St. Louis, everything. Maybe at the end of the season, we can get something done. Let’s see how the team finishes.”

The Cardinals, however, aren’t prepared to discuss an extension yet. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Saxon it’s “good to hear” Ozuna wants to remain a Redbird, but he added, “We will focus on this in the offseason.”

If the two sides don’t reach an agreement before the market opens, the Cardinals are likely to slap a qualifying offer on Ozuna as he potentially prepares to depart. That would be a pricey move on the team’s part (the QO was worth $17.9MM last offseason), but Ozuna is on the way to justifying the investment with another respectable showing.

Now in his second year with the Cardinals, the former Marlin has slashed .252/.329/.505 (115 wRC+) with 1.6 fWAR over 346 plate appearances in 2019. Ozuna missed just over a month this summer with multiple finger fractures, but he has still piled up 21 home runs. His prodigious power has helped make him a favorite of Statcast, which places Ozuna anywhere from the league’s 79th to 98th percentile in expected batting average, expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Aside from J.D. Martinez, primarily a designated hitter, Ozuna may be the premier corner outfield-capable player with the potential to become a free agent. Martinez definitely isn’t a lock to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM left on his contract with Boston, though. Conversely, Ozuna’s very likely to face competition from fellow pending free-agent corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos and Yasiel Puig – two just-traded players who won’t be eligible for qualifying offers – and maybe Kole Calhoun if the Angels decline his $14MM option.

For their part, the Cardinals don’t appear to have any outfielders as appealing as Ozuna right now. That could influence the club to try to bring Ozuna back, though St. Louis is likely mindful that its recent big-money contracts for veteran position players haven’t paid off to this point. The Cardinals have issues a combined $311.5MM in guarantees to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, catcher Yadier Molina, third baseman Matt Carpenter and outfielder Dexter Fowler dating back to December 2016. All four of those players have experienced marked declines in production since receiving their deals, which helps explain why the Cardinals aren’t in possession of a National League playoff spot at the moment.