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Arbitration Breakdown: Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Just like last year, our arbitration model expects three pitchers to break the decade-old record for starting pitchers reaching their first-year of eligibility for arbitration. As is generally the case, these pitchers are excellent extension candidates, and extensions are a big part of the reason why Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM arbitration salary from 2006 has stood this long as the record.

In reality, the record really should have been broken several times already. Most notably, Tim Lincecum was offered $8MM in 2010 when he requested $13MM upon exchanging figures with the Giants. He ultimately earned $9MM as part of a multi-year deal, but Willis’ record technically still stood, because Lincecum had not signed a one-year deal. Clayton Kershaw in 2012 was offered $6.5MM when requesting $10MM and ultimately signed a multi-year deal, giving him $7.75MM his first year. Just last year, one of the three pitchers projected to break Willis’ record, Lance Lynn, made $7MM as part of a multi-year deal, although it is less clear he would have earned that much had he not signed his three-year deal.

Dallas Keuchel

The strongest of the three cases this year is that of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel. He went 20-8 in 2015 with a 2.48 in 232 innings. The only other two platform-year Cy Young winners in recent history have been Lincecum and Kershaw, but both of them clearly had stronger careers than Keuchel before winning their Cy Young Awards. Lincecum had a 2.90 career ERA and Kershaw’s career ERA was 2.88, while Keuchel only has a 3.58 career ERA and was at 4.16 before his Cy Young season. Similarly, Lincecum was 40-17 career at the time, and Kershaw was 42-28, while Keuchel is only 41-35.

In addition to Keuchel, two other pitchers are projected to top the $4.35MM record for first-time eligible starting pitchers. Shelby Miller only went 6-17 in 2015, but his 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in his All-Star platform year, along with his 3.22 career ERA in 575 1/3 innings give him a strong projection anyway. Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings in his platform year, and he has a 25-18 career record with a 2.53 career ERA in 427 innings. While Keuchel is projected to earn $6.4MM, Miller is projected to earn $4.9MM, and Harvey is projected to earn $4.7MM .

Despite no hurler topping Willis’ $4.35MM record, a number of pitchers have gotten very close in recent years. Five players in the last six years have landed between $4MM and $4.35MM on one-year deals, and many more have received multi-year deals. Comparing Keuchel, Miller, and Harvey with these five hurlers, along with a few other players who fell just short of $4MM will help figure out whether our projection for these pitchers is appropriate.

Keuchel seems like a safe bet to break the $4.35MM record if he does have a one-year award or goes to a hearing. David Price, who tied Willis’ $4.35MM record, was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 224 1/3 innings in his platform year, which Keuchel bested in each category. Keuchel also has the same number of wins as Price did for his career at the time (41) and a similar ERA (3.38 for Price, 3.58 for Keuchel). Strengthening Keuchel’s argument is the fact that Price had nearly 100 fewer career innings when he tied Willis’ record.

Chris Tillman, who earned $4.32MM last year, did so after a 13-6 record with 3.34 ERA in his platform year and only a 4.00 career ERA with 45 career wins. Keuchel clearly should out-earn Tillman, Price and Willis handily, although he is likely to fall short of the respective $8MM and $6.5MM figures that were offered to Kershaw and Lincecum prior to their multi-year deals. I suspect Keuchel will miss the $6.4MM projection, but could easily get close to $6MM — comfortably establishing a new record.

Shelby Miller may have a harder time hitting his projection. I suspect that the model is struggling to find pitchers with an ERA as good and with as many innings who did not have many wins. A couple of recent comparables emerge, both of which had single-digit wins in their platform year with low ERAs. Stephen Strasburg in 2014 earned $3.97MM a couple years ago after going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in his platform year, but his 183 innings that year are short of Miller’s 205, and Miller’s 575 career innings handily top Strasburg’s 434.

Travis Wood earned $3.9MM two years ago with a 9-12 platform year record, 200 platform year innings and 564 career innings, although his career ERA was 3.83. Miller easily bests that mark with 3.22. Their platform year ERAs were similar, however, with Wood at 3.11 and Miller at 3.02. Miller also struck out a few more hitters than Wood had. Overall, both Strasburg and Wood getting just shy of $4MM two years ago with worse pre-platform performances suggests that Miller should get over $4MM, even if his $4.9MM projection will be harder to land. Most likely, he will end up between $4MM and the $4.35MM record, unless Keuchel or Harvey re-sets the market and pushes his number upward.

Matt Harvey

It’s difficult to find comparables for Harvey, partly because of his injuries and partly because his playoff performance in 2015 could help his case. Cole Hamels’ case after his 2008 playoff success (although he was the World Series MVP) would have been a good match, even though it is stale, but he signed a multi-year deal instead. He did earn $4.35MM in a multi-year deal that could be a useful comparison. Hamels similarly did not have many platform year wins despite a strong ERA — he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, which compares somewhat favorably to Harvey’s 13-8 with 2.71. Hamels did have 227 innings though, compared with Harvey’s 189. On the other hand, Harvey’s 2.53 career ERA clearly outdoes the 3.43 ERA held by Hamels at the time.

Mike Minor got a one-year deal for $3.85MM a couple years ago after going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings, although his 3.90 career ERA is clearly worse than Harvey’s. However, his 507 1/3 career innings at the time exceed Harvey’s 427.

It is not too challenging to make a case that David Price’s numbers when he got $4.35MM are similar to Miller and Harvey. Both Miller and Harvey possess superior ERA marks, although they each also had fewer innings. Harvey’s record was better (13-8 versus 12-13) but Miller’s was worse (6-17). Price’s 3.38 career ERA was similar to Miller’s 3.22, but Harvey’s 2.53 is better. On the other hand, Price and Miller had matching innings totals, while Harvey was about 150 innings short.

It does not seem obvious that Harvey or Miller can top the Price/Willis record, so I suspect both of them will end up in the $4MM to $4.35MM range. Obviously, if Keuchel shatters Price’s record in advance, Harvey or Miller could have a better opportunity to top that figure themselves, but I would bet the model’s projections for this pair ultimately proves to be too high.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Dombrowski, Fernandez, Harvey, Britton

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Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski discussed his team’s pitching search in an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link here).  Dombrowski said that “any of” the top starters on both the trade and free agent markets “are under consideration for us” as the Sox are casting a wide net in looking for an ace.  “The [free agent] market is probably, as flush as it is…an area that we would pursue more, but I think that you’d feel comfortable that any names out there, you could say we have interest in them and hopefully somebody will have interest in us,” Dombrowski said.  When asked about Red Sox ownership’s recent reluctance to give long-term deals to pitchers, Dombrowski discussed the importance and necessity of keeping upper management informed about any major signing.  “I don’t think anyone really cherishes giving that long term of a contract to any pitcher in particular but it’s a situation [where]…if you’re going to participate, you’re most likely going to have to do that,” Dombrowski said.

Here’s some more from around baseball as we head into a new week…

  • “The lines of communication” between Jose Fernandez and the Marlins front office “have been good” as of late, sources tell ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required).  This could be why neither side seems to be looking for a trade, despite some reports of personality issues between Fernandez and some teammates.  As Olney notes, there has never been any doubt of Fernandez’s passion for baseball, and some of the behavioral drama could stem from a franchise-wide lack of discipline caused by the Marlins’ unsettled managerial situation.  With a veteran skipper like Don Mattingly on board, things should theoretically be more stable within Miami’s clubhouse.
  • If the Marlins did want to deal Fernandez, Olney notes, it might better suit them to wait until next winter when the pitching market is less crowded.  The Mets could also be planning this same strategy for exploring Matt Harvey trades in the 2016-17 offseason.
  • Unless the Orioles get a huge offer, it probably makes more sense for the club to keep Zach Britton rather than shop him in trades, CSNMidAtlantic.com’s Rich Dubroff opines.  Dealing Britton would fetch some sorely-needed prospects for Baltimore, and also open some payroll space given Britton’s escalating price tag as he enters his arbitration years.  On the other hand, dealing the star closer would leave a big hole on a would-be contender, especially one that is already likely to lose a big bullpen arm in Darren O’Day.
  • Several young players have been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason, and MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince gives an overview of the some of the talents who could be trade chips rather than cornerstones for their respective clubs.
  • On the flip side, MLB.com’s Dan O’Dowd identifies Lorenzo Cain, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, A.J. Pollock and Marcus Stroman as players who have become big pieces of their clubs’ present and future, and all could be targeted for extensions this winter.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd examined Cole as an extension candidate last March, before Cole boosted his value with a superb season.

Braves Listening On Andrelton Simmons

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4:31pm: The Rockies are not engaged in trade talks regarding Simmons, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports on Twitter.

8:58am: The Mets checked in on Simmons this morning and were met with the asking price of Jacob deGrom or Matt Harvey, tweets Sherman, which is steeper than New York would care to pay.

NOV. 12, 7:09am: Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Braves are indeed listening to offers for Simmons, and they’ve been in recent contact with the Padres, Dodgers and Angels (three Twitter links). The Braves recognize the weak free-agent market at shortstop and want to at least see what the return would be for Simmons considering how valuable he is. Sherman adds that the Mets haven’t checked in on Simmons yet, perhaps assuming that the Braves wouldn’t deal him within the NL East.

NOV. 11, 10:42pm: The Braves have discussed Simmons, but no deal is close at the moment, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (links to Twitter). They’re willing to listen, and as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution adds (also via Twitter), Atlanta is determined to add multiple young, impact pieces without raising payroll much. Moving Simmons could achieve that goal, but the cost would assuredly be astounding for a player with as much surplus value on his contract as Simmons presently has.

10:31pm: The Padres have checked in on Simmons but nothing is close in terms of trade talks between the two sides, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune (Twitter link).

9:58pm: Keri now tweets that the Braves’ talks revolve around Andrelton Simmons. That doesn’t necessarily rule out any of the four remaining teams, as the Rockies and Padres could certainly use a long-term answer at shortstop and either the Dodgers or D-Backs could shuffle their current infield alignment to add a defender of Simmons’ caliber.

Simmons’ offensive output was down in 2015, but he remains arguably the game’s most elite defensive player and is under contract for another five seasons at a total of $53MM.

9:33pm: The Giants aren’t in talks with the Braves, both SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo and the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman hear (links to Twitter).

9:11pm: The Braves are “deep” in trade talks with a yet-unnamed NL West club, reports Jonah Keri of ESPN (via Twitter). Clearly, there’s a lot left to the imagination with this report, but there’s enough to at least envision a few possibilities.

The Braves are known to be shopping expensive veterans Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, though neither player is a desirable asset considering the $15MM each is owed in 2016. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported today that Cameron Maybin is available in trades, and Maybin could be a more appealing piece on the heels of the first fully healthy season he’s enjoyed since 2012. There’s also been speculation over the past several months that Atlanta could move on from formerly presumed catcher-of-the-future Christian Bethancourt, and the team did just reportedly agree to terms on a new one-year deal with A.J. Pierzynski earlier tonight. Other possibilities include Julio Teheran, whose name has been kicked around in trade rumors since the summer, and Mike Minor, whom the team is reportedly uncertain about tendering after he experienced a setback in his rehab from shoulder surgery.

A quick rundown of the NL West’s team needs: the Rockies could be looking for catching or pitching help, the Giants are reportedly interested in outfielders and rotation arms, the Diamondbacks are hunting for general pitching help (rotation or bullpen), the Dodgers are in much the same boat as the D-Backs, and the Padres could conceivably be looking to add in the outfield, infield or rotation. That creates a wide-ranging slate of possibilities, of course, though if a trade is indeed nearing fruition, further details are likely to be reported sooner rather than later.

Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Murphy, Kennedy, Wieters, Phillies

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Mets righty Matt Harvey and agent Scott Boras took out an insurance policy on the right-hander’s arm, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column. The policy covers a mere fraction of Harvey’s overall earning potential, says Heyman, but it does give him a bit of a safety net in the event that his workload following Tommy John surgery leads to future arm complications. Heyman notes that Harvey’s dominant outing in Game 1 of the NLCS “all but obliterated” other teams’ chances of trading for the right-hander, who was lauded by the Citi Field faithful. Never one to pass up the chance for a memorable quote, Boras said of Harvey’s performance on a cold New York evening: “Forget Batman. He’s Mr. Freeze.”

A few more highlights from the column…

  • While multiple reports have indicated that the Mets aren’t planning on giving Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, one rival GM tells Heyman that they “absolutely have to” extend the QO on the heels of Murphy’s huge postseason. The GM added that Murphy should reject the offer and look to capitalize on the five homers he’s launched since the NLDS got underway.
  • The Padres appear to have interest in a reunion with starter Ian Kennedy, per the report. It’s likely, of course, that there will be competition. As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old righty has sustained the gains in velocity and strikeout rate that he showed last year — in fact, his 9.3 K/9 is second only to David Price among free agents — and has been a reliable source of innings for the last six years.
  • Catcher Matt Wieters will draw some open-market interest from the Rangers, but only if he avoids a qualifying offer. Texas would not have interest in giving up its first-round pick to ink Wieters, says Heyman.
  • The Phillies haven’t yet called Jim Hendry about their open GM seat. He teamed with new Philadelphia president Andy MacPhail with the Cubs. But Heyman writes that the Phils appear to be angling toward younger candidates. Though we haven’t heard much lately on the status of Kim Ng, one source says that she remains in the mix.

Quick Hits: Harvey, Baker, Pohlad, Cardinals

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Both the Royals and Mets hold a 2-0 lead in their respective League Championship Series following the Mets’ 4-1 win over the Cubs in Game 2 of the NLCS tonight.  Five Mets pitchers (including Noah Syndergaard, who threw 5 2/3 innings) held Chicago to five hits in the game while Jake Arrieta struggled, allowing four runs in just five innings of work.  The NLCS has an off-day Monday as the scene shifts to Wrigley Field, while the Blue Jays will try to get on the board in Game 3 of the ALCS at Rogers Centre.  Some news from around baseball…

  • Matt Harvey’s excellent start in Game 1 of the NLCS should end any trade speculation surrounding the ace righty, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes.  The innings-limit controversy between Harvey, Scott Boras and the Mets in September led to rumors that the Mets could look to part ways with Harvey this winter, though his postseason performance has surely gone a long way to erasing any hard feelings.
  • Dusty Baker spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom) about his desire to return to a dugout.  Baker said his recent interview with the Nationals “was good” and apparently he cleared up some misconceptions the Nats might’ve had about him.  “People think they know you through word of mouth, but it’s somebody else’s opinion. I mean, they don’t really know you until you talk to somebody. Then, it’s like, ’Wow, I didn’t know you were like that,’ ” Baker said.  It doesn’t look like the Padres have an interest in Baker as their next manager, however, as he said he contacted San Diego “and they said, ’Thanks for the interest.’ That was the extent of it.”
  • Twins owner Jim Pohlad discusses several topics in an interview with LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, including Torii Hunter’s future, Paul Molitor’s rookie season as manager and how the club is responding to their return to respectability.  In regards to payroll, Pohlad said that “we’re willing to do whatever it takes,” though there are apparently some limits.  “I will tell you that I’m not a huge fan of long-term contracts. It’s having to commit for so many years and there’s really only downside to the club. There’s hardly any instances where it has been upside, across baseball,” Pohlad said.
  • That comment from Pohlad is parsed by 1500 ESPN’s Derek Wetmore, who notes that several of the Twins’ recent long-term deals aren’t projecting to end well.  Still, Wetmore doesn’t think Pohlad is absolutely against long-term deals as a rule, and perhaps the owner could be more interested in contracts for fewer years but with a higher annual average value.
  • While the Cardinals haven’t missed a beat in the standings, their offense has been in slow decline for a few seasons, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  The Cards’ lineup has been propped up by statistical anomalies (an incredible average with runners in scoring position in 2013, for instance) and their run differential has been inflated by their great pitching and defense.  Power has been a particular issue over the last two seasons, though it’s possible more pop could come from within once youngsters Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk grow more accustomed to the majors.

NL Notes: Ramirez, Dodgers, Harvey

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Manny Ramirez was known for his unusual attitude as a player, and his current role with the Cubs is unclear, but he’s latched on with the organization as a coach, the Associated Press writes. Ramirez isn’t listed as an official member of the Cubs’ coaching staff, but he regularly works with all the team’s hitters, and Jorge Soler and Javier Baez, especially, look up to him. His metamorphosis into an admired coach has been unusual, given that he was suspended for PEDs and that he himself was known for being less than coachable as a player. He was, however, a hard worker, and his appetite for improving his game has also helped him as a coach. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Dodgers’ playoff ouster shows that Andrew Friedman needs to adjust to the demands of baseball in a big market, Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times writes. While the Dodgers did win 92 games and the NL West, Dilbeck writes, they were still disappointing because they didn’t advance further than the NLDS and didn’t show appropriate “urgency” by making high-profile deadline moves. From my perspective, that sounds somewhat harsh, given the seemingly limited amount of control a front office has over how its team plays once it reaches the roller coaster of variance that is the postseason. Dilbeck has a point, though, that this winter will be an interesting one for Friedman, who will likely have to strongly consider signing, for the first time in his career, at least one player to a nine-figure contract.
  • The Mets’ unexpectedly strong season has placed starter Matt Harvey in an awkward position, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. He continues to pitch in the postseason despite a controversy earlier in the year about his innings total this season as he returns from Tommy John surgery. Including the playoffs, Harvey has now pitched 194 1/3 innings this season. Pitching more might risk further injury, but as the reaction to the initial controversy showed, Harvey would be a “pariah” throughout the game if he stopped. And it isn’t hard to understand why the Mets might want to get everything they can out of him now, while they have a chance — clear shots at championships aren’t easy to come by, even for teams that appear to have bright futures.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Desmond, Bour, Harvey

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Here’s the latest from around the NL East…

  • Ian Desmond hinted that he is likely entering his last week in a Nationals uniform, as the free agent shortstop told the Washington Post’s James Wagner that “I know that there’s a new chapter looming” in his career.  It was a frustrating year for both the team and Desmond personally, as he has hit only .232/.285/.381 over 619 PA in his walk year.  “If anything weighed on me, it was the fact that this was most likely going to be my last ride and I really wanted to go out with a bang, not personally but as far as a team,” Desmond said. “I probably, at certain times, tried to do too much but I’m a trier, man. I wanna win. I’m extremely passionate about my teammates and this organization and winning.”  Desmond did say that he’s “open for whatever” in free agency and spoke of his pride in being a part of the first generation of Nationals baseball, so it’s perhaps not completely out of the question that he could re-sign with Washington.
  • Marlins rookie first baseman Justin Bour is making a strong case for an everyday job in 2016, FOX Sports Florida’s Christina De Nicola writes.  Bour had a .266/.326/.474 slash line and 21 homers in 420 plate appearances heading into today’s action, and he’s been particularly hot down the stretch, posting an .887 OPS in 94 September PA.  The left-handed hitting Bour has only a .597 OPS in limited at-bats against southpaws, but at worst he seems to have earned himself at least the lion’s share of a platoon for next year.
  • Matt Harvey threw 92 pitches over 6 2/3 innings on Saturday, and the Mets ace reportedly told manager Terry Collins and pitching coach Dan Warthen that he wants to make regular starts down the stretch, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes.  “When he came to me last week he said, ’€˜I want to pitch. I want to stay out there. I want to throw 100 pitches and I want to do it twice (before the end of the season),’ ” Collins described.  “He said, ’We’™re going to win this thing and I’m going to pitch in the playoffs, and I’€™ve got to be ready. And I’m not ready.’ ”  Harvey has now thrown 183 2/3 innings in his first season back after Tommy John surgery.  Ironically, since the Mets have now clinched the division, this might be the ideal time to shut Harvey down until the playoffs, though this innings-limit controversy may yet have a few more twists and turns.

East Notes: Gordon, Red Sox, Hanley, Harvey

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Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald highlights the charitable efforts of Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, whose work in the domestic violence arena was motivated by personal tragedy. Gordon has started a program to help children who have lost parents as a result of a domestic incident, and is the spokesperson for the club’s domestic violence prevention night this week. While Miami has had its share of on-field disappointment this year, Gordon has been a clear bright spot, improving upon his breakout 2014. It will be interesting to see whether and when the team looks into an attempt at a contract extension with Gordon, who can be controlled through 2018.

Here are some more notes from the east to start the day:

  • Whatever else may come of this season for the Red Sox, the development of young starters Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens has been promising, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. After seeing a previous group of prospects falter in their efforts to make the final step, Boston has reason to feel good about where both of its high-upside lefties are headed after their debut years.
  • The Red Sox’ trial of Hanley Ramirez at first base may begin in short order, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. The infield-turned-outfielder is set to meet with the coaching staff today to discuss an activation date. There isn’t much time for Ramirez to showcase his potential at the position, let alone to adapt and improve, but the early returns could be important as new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski charts an offseason strategy.
  • The Mets’ handling of Matt Harvey continues to draw discussion and intrigue, especially after the team collapsed following Harvey’s early exit from his most recent outing. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post and Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News break down the latest, including GM Sandy Alderson’s comments on his recent conversations with surgeon James Andrews. According to the Mets’ GM, Andrews did not cite the 180-inning cap that had previously been attributed to him. The situation remains fluid, per Alderson, and the team will continue to monitor Harvey’s workload on a start-to-start basis.

NL East Notes: Harvey, Harper, Lazo

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ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark takes a long look at the question of how the Mets ought to be handling righty Matt Harvey within the context of the broader state of knowledge on pitching injuries. It is an interesting read, though the bottom-line takeaway remains that even the experts still feel unable to provide clear guidance on how to handle post-Tommy John pitchers.

A few more quick notes relating to the NL East:

  • It’s time for the Nationals to consider whether to make a real run at attempting to extend Bryce Harper, writes Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post. As he notes, Harper is currently looking to polish off a historic season — his OPS+ of over 200 is something that a number of inner-circle Hall-of-Famers never reached, let alone at age 22 — which obviously gives him plenty of leverage. True, Harper is already under contract for a reasonable price tag next year — after reaching a two-year, $7.5MM, grievance-avoiding deal that has worked out well for Washington — and he can be controlled for two more seasons beyond. But signing a player like Harper, who is represented by Scott Boras, is probably less about market comps than it is creative business valuation and the imaginations of both sides. Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM guarantee would probably need to be smashed to get something done, Boswell suggests, and I’m inclined to agree.
  • Marlins lefty Raudel Lazo has overcome long odds to reach the big leagues this year, as Christina De Nicoloa of FOXSports Florida writes. Not only did he have to defect from his native Cuba and climb the ranks as a fairly unheralded signee, but he overcame consecutive Tommy John surgeries along the way. The 26-year-old has a small frame and lacks a high-velocity fastball, but he has consistently posted good strikeout-to-walk numbers in the minors.

NL East Notes: Papelbon, Braves, Harvey

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Jonathan Papelbon made his return to Philadelphia for the first time since being traded from the Phillies to the Nationals in July, and the outspoken closer didn’t pull any punches in criticizing his old team.  “I don’t know if I got a bad rep here or whatever, but I can promise you I was by far (not) the bad guy on this team.  I was one of the few that wanted to win.  I was one of the few who competed and posted up every day,” Papelbon told reporters, including Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News.  The closer’s issues extended well beyond the clubhouse, as “I think the blame goes all the way from the front office down to the bat boy.  When you don’t have an organization that wants to win, it’s pretty evident.  They go out and publicly say we’re not going to win.  What more – do you know what I mean?”

Here’s some more from around the NL East…

  • Fredi Gonzalez isn’t to blame for the Braves’ collapse, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes as part of a reader mailbag.  The fact that Atlanta extended Gonzalez and his coaching staff’s contracts in July just before the team started trading veteran players was a sign that the manager wasn’t going to be held responsible for how the purposely-weakened roster performed down the stretch.
  • Also from Bowman’s piece, he notes that the Braves will have roughly $25-$30MM in payroll space this winter and they’ll focus on upgrading the bullpen and perhaps adding a veteran arm to the rotation.  Such a starter would be of the mid-tier variety rather than an expensive ace, however.
  • The Braves would like to bring back A.J. Pierzynski as a backup catcher next year and Christian Bethancourt may be trade bait, though Bowman wonders if Atlanta would move Bethancourt when his value is at an all-time low.  Bowman suggests that free agent catching target like Chris Iannetta might be more realistic than a pricier option such as Matt Wieters.  The Braves would also have an interest in Jonathan Lucroy but there’s no sign the Brewers are making their catcher available in trade talks.
  • The Mets will be making a mistake if they trade Matt Harvey this winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines.  Harvey is too valuable and too talented to move for anything less than an elite young talent, and since the odds are slim-to-none that the likes of Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts could be obtained in return, Sherman feels Harvey is still needed in New York since there’s no such thing as too much pitching depth.
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