Max Scherzer

11:29 am: Scherzer will throw a simulated game Tuesday, at which point the Nationals will reevaluate his timetable, Kerr adds.

10:21 am: It seems Scherzer came out of the bullpen session unscathed. Asked today by reporters how he’s feeling, Scherzer gave a thumbs up, tweets Byron Kerr of MASN, surely an encouraging sign for Nats’ fans.

8:37 am: The Nationals are clinging to a half-game lead in the NL Wild Card entering Sunday’s series finale against the charging Mets. Their playoff odds, per Fangraphs, sit at a strong 67.8%, with a small but non-zero chance they overcome their current 6.5 game deficit in the NL East. Since placing their ace Max Scherzer on the injured list July 29, though, the club has gone just 5-6 against a slew of teams in a similar position to them in the standings. Fortunately, the 35 year-old took something of a step forward in his recovery yesterday, as Sam Fortier of the Washington Post reports.

Scherzer tossed a 36-pitch bullpen session without discomfort Saturday, his first mound work since he hit the shelf. Both the pitcher and manager Dave Martinez were moderately encouraged with the session, although Scherzer predictably expressed some frustration with missing time at all.

That’s not to say we’ll see Scherzer on the mound immediately, though. The club still hasn’t put forth a timetable for his return, and Martinez told Fortier the club plans to be “very cautious” with the hurler to keep him healthy for the stretch run. As Fortier adds on Twitter, that may eventually mean Scherzer needs to make a minor-league rehab start as a tune-up before returning to an MLB mound. It seems the biggest test of the weekend will actually be how Scherzer feels today, as his previous injury popped up the day after his start, not while he was on the mound.

It’s easy to understand why Washington wants to be patient with its ace, even amidst the heat of a pennant race. For one, it’s arguable the club and player have already paid the price for impatience. Scherzer initially hit the IL with a mid-back strain July 13, returned just twelve days later, then went back on the shelf after one start with the current upper back problem. Whether Scherzer’s second injury was a foreseeable consequence of his quick return from the first is anyone’s guess, but his having multiple IL stints in a short period of time no doubt plays a role in the organization’s cautious approach this go-round.

Additionally, Scherzer is among the most important pieces in the organization. While he’s already more than made good on the club’s sizable free agent investment, he’s under contract for $30 million over the next two seasons (with another $105 million in deferred money to be paid through 2028), as Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs recently explained. Anticipating another two years of stellar production, the club wants to make sure Scherzer’s at his best before he returns to action.

Despite his age, Scherzer continued to dazzle in 2019 pre-injury. His 2.41 ERA ranks third leaguewide (minimum 100 innings), while his combination of strikeouts (35.3%) and walks (4.7%) is the best in MLB. Scherzer’s been among the best pitchers of this decade, having accrued 200+ innings with an ERA of 3.15 or below every year between 2013 and 2018. While the injuries will keep him from that 200 inning mark this season, he remains dominant as ever on a rate basis, making his health situation one of the most noteworthy around the league as we approach the season’s stretch run.

After coming off of the injured list to start yesterday, Nationals ace Max Scherzer woke up with renewed stiffness in his back, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports. It is not clear at this point whether he’ll skip his next scheduled start and/or require a return trip to the 10-day IL.

An MRI taken this morning revealed a mild rhomboid strain. That’s a different issue in the same area of the upper back/shoulder. Scherzer had previously been dealing with an inflamed bursa sac in the vicinity of his shoulder blade. To treat the new problem, Scherzer has undergone a stem-cell injection. His response to that will be assessed in a few days.

While the Nats need every single Scherzer outing they can get, the team is also walking a bit of a tightrope. Allowing the fiery veteran to push himself too hard could easily backfire. And Scherzer wasn’t quite at his best in his return start, though he was still effective and did emphasize that he felt at full health going into and during the outing.

The uncertainty surrounding Scherzer comes at an interesting time for the Nationals. There was already a case to be made that this team could use a starting pitcher. There’s all the more reason to do so now, if only to buy some time to give Scherzer ample rest.

One route would be to grab a fill-in rotation piece that can check down to a relief role. Derek Holland might’ve made sense in that capacity, particularly since the Nats could use a southpaw and he has been so nasty against opposing lefties. But the team didn’t jump on the opportunity, with Holland landing today with the Cubs. Similar hurlers could yet make sense. The tough thing for the D.C. organization will be to balance the imperative to buttress the rotation with a still-glaring need for multiple, quality relief arms.

TODAY:  Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) that he is “reasonably confident” Scherzer will come off the injured list this week.  As Dougherty notes, this projection carries some extra weight coming from Rizzo, who “is usually resistant to putting even loose timelines on injuries.”

FRIDAY: The Nats’ mid-season revival has been driven by exceptional starting pitching — particularly from the ever-dependable Max Scherzer. His unholy tear through the rest of the league was halted only by an unfortunate back issue that has cropped up, forcing a recent injured-list placement.

Scherzer provided an update today to reporters including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). What had been believed to be a mid-back strain is in fact an inflamed bursa sac in his back/shoulder area (formally, “scapulothoracic bursitis”). He’s throwing off flat ground while waiting for a cortisone shot to take effect.

It’s clear at this point that Scherzer will not pitch before the weekend is out. But he suggests that he ought to be ready to go in relatively short order thereafter. It’ll all depend upon the efficacy and speed of the treatment. Much as the Nats would love to have him back on the bump right away, they’ll need to be cautious of avoiding a larger problem.

It’s more or less impossible to overstate just how good Scherzer has been of late. Since the start of June, he has made seven starts, over which he has allowed just five earned runs on 29 hits in 52 innings. Scherzer has compiled an absurd 79:6 K/BB ratio in that span.

Even if he never threw another pitch in D.C., Scherzer’s blockbuster free agent contract would go down as a huge success. He has already thrown over one thousand innings of 2.65 ERA ball for the Nats, racking up over thirty wins above replacement in less than five full seasons. That he remains an outstanding pitcher with appealing (albeit not inexpensive) remaining guaranteed seasons is testimony to how unusually well that deal has turned out for the team.

As talented and driven as Scherzer is, no small portion of his value is connected to his ability to stay in good health. That has allowed him not only to fill up innings, but to do so at top speed. If the Nats are to chase down the Braves, or otherwise make noise in the postseason by entering through the Wild Card, they’ll need their ace in all his furious glory.

It goes without saying that Scherzer is irreplaceable. But the Nats may need to find another rotation piece over the next twelve days, particularly if there’s any concern that they may need to go a stretch without Scherzer. At present, Austin Voth and Erick Fedde account for the fifth rotation spot. Relying on those hurlers, with scant 40-man depth otherwise (Kyle McGowin, Joe Ross), would be dangerous. There’s no indication that Jeremy Hellickson is going to be an option at any point in the near future.

We already know the Nats will be looking for bullpen arms. But it’ll be interesting to see whether and how they approach the starting pitching market. Perhaps a swingman type would make sense as a partial hedge against a rotation need, without putting too many resources into a spot that may not need to be fully addressed.