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Odubel Herrera

The Rule 5 Opportunity

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This is an original MLBTR article produced by contributor Dan Lumpkin and the MLBTR staff. To read more recent MLBTR originals, click here.

Ender Inciarte and Odubel Herrera will long be linked due to their status as division-rival center fielders who inked extremely similar five-year extensions within two weeks of one another. They’re also linked, however, by the Rule 5 Draft altering their career trajectories.

Oddly enough, it was the Phillies who selected Inciarte out of the Diamondbacks organization back in 2012. Although he didn’t stick with the team all season and was eventually shipped back to the D-backs, Inciarte tells MLBTR he’s not sure he’d be playing in the Majors today were it not for the Phillies’ show of faith.

“You know, I could say I was very under-the-radar in Arizona,” the 2016 Gold Glove winner said. “Not underrated but very under-the radar.”

Inciarte was not seen as a prospect for his organization initially but was invited to play in Winter Ball during the 2012 offseason, and that’s where Phillies scouts got a good look at him and determined that Inciarte might be able to cut it in the big leagues.

“As soon as [the Phillies] picked me it took me by surprise, to be honest,” Inciarte said. “Then I realized what [the Rule 5 Draft] was and what it meant. It really worked great for me. It doesn’t work the same for everybody because some people don’t get to play and others get to play a lot.”

Inciarte played with the Phillies in his first big league Spring Training and did well despite the Phillies’ manager mistaking him for a clubhouse employee on his first day with the team.

“When I got there on the first day, I got there at like 5:00am, and Charlie Manuel didn’t even know who I was,” Inciarte recalled. “He asked me to go get something like his shoes or his hat and I told him, ‘I’m not a clubbie, I’m the Rule 5 kid.”

Inciarte found his way with the big league club, and many of the Phillies veterans saw his ability and encouraged him throughout Spring Training. This, Inciarte said, is what made him play with confidence.

“When I was there, I was playing with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay,” Inciarte said. “I could see all those guys up close. I felt like I was living a dream, right there. All those guys got to talk to me and said, ‘Hey man, you are part of this team. Don’t think because you are a Rule 5 it isn’t going to happen.’ It gave me a lot of confidence. I had a great time there.’”

Inciarte had a good Spring Training and actually made the Opening Day roster for the Phillies as a bench player. Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t in the Opening Day lineup, which would prove to be his only chance to suit up for the Phillies that year. Following the first game of the season, the Phillies signed Ezequiel Carrera, and it was Inciarte who lost his roster spot in a corresponding move. Inciarte was returned to the Diamondbacks.

Though some players might consider it a demotion and a disappointment to just barely sniff the Major Leagues in that manner, Inciarte views his brief stay in the Phillies organization as a turning point.

“For me, it was great because a lot of teams got to see me play and when I got back to Arizona they sent me to Double-A when I was supposed to go to Single-A,” he explained. “Everyone started paying more attention to me. I got more chances to play and prove myself. It was for the best but I know it’s not the same for everybody. When I got back Kevin Towers went to go see me play in Mobile, Alabama. He didn’t know who I was (before the draft). After the Rule 5 is when they started paying more attention to me. If it weren’t for the Phillies, I probably would not even have a chance to play in the big leagues so I’m very grateful for what happened to me.”

Inciarte’s experience with the Rule 5 process is typical — especially for position players. While it’s not uncommon to see a relief pitcher survive a season as the seventh man in a big league bullpen, there are fewer spots to stash position players on a Major League roster. That reality makes Odubel Herrera’s accomplishment of not only sticking on the Phillies’ roster all season but thriving and becoming a key long-term cog all the more impressive.

Herrera split the 2014 season between the Rangers’ Class-A Advanced and Double-A affiliates and put together a strong season. In 545 plate appearances as a 22-year-old, he batted a combined .315/.383/.388 with two home runs and 21 stolen bases. But it wasn’t enough to land him on the Rangers’ 40-man roster, and the Phillies reaped the benefits. Though Herrera had spent nearly his entire career playing second base, the Phils plucked him in the Rule 5 and shifted him to center field.

“I feel very blessed that the Rangers didn’t protect me because I am now in the big leagues and I have a long-term deal with the Phillies,” said Herrera through an interpreter. “Once I found out that the Rangers didn’t protect me, I knew in my heart that another team would pick me up through the Rule 5. … I went to Spring Training feeling a little strange but as soon as I arrived in Clearwater, the manager gave me a lot of cheers and confidence from day one.”

While Herrera’s five-year deal with the Phillies may closely mirror Inciarte’s deal with the Braves, Herrera’s Rule 5 experience in many ways is more closely aligned with that of former Marlins/Braves slugger Dan Uggla. Like Herrera, Uggla was the rare position player to be selected in the Rule 5 and plugged immediately into his new team’s Opening Day lineup despite the fact that he (like Herrera) had never played a game above the Double-A level in his career.

“I was thinking about [the Rule 5 Draft] a lot, yeah,” said Uggla when asked about being left off the Diamondbacks’ roster back in 2005. “I had a good fall league and they left me off the 40 man, so that’s obviously what I was hoping for. I found out in the morning that I had been drafted by the Marlins and it was one of the coolest moments of my career. The coolest moment up to that point.”

That moment, of course, would soon be joined by a great many more exciting moments, as Uggla went on to appear in three All-Star Games and hit 235 home runs in parts of 10 big league seasons from 2006-15. But the rarity of the chance he was given by the Marlins is not lost on him to this day.

“They gave me the everyday starting second base job in the big leagues,” Uggla said. “For a guy in my position, that was unheard of. It involves an extreme amount of luck and timing. I could have gotten called up with any team and there’s a good chance I wouldn’t have got to play. Maybe a couple pinch hits or a spot-start against a really tough pitcher, maybe I would have gotten sent back down. But to be in that situation and to make the team and they just let you play everyday, that was pretty amazing.”

Uggla also credited timing as a significant factor in his opportunity to start playing in the Majors. During the offseason he was picked up, the Marlins were in the midst of a fire sale in which they traded several starting players to build up their farm system. This flurry of trades opened up the Marlins’ depth chart and created an opportunity for Uggla to prove himself against big league pitchers.

“They had just made a bunch of trades and started from scratch with a bunch of younger guys and rookies,” Uggla said. “It was cool. I got to walk in and be at the team meeting and I found my place on the team.”

Rebuilding clubs indeed have an easier time carrying a Rule 5 pick over a marathon regular season, and that was a large factor in Joakim Soria’s emergence in the Majors, as his agent, Oscar Suarez points out.

“As a pitcher, you go in with a second-tier team, like Joakim did with Kansas City at the time — they are no longer a second-tier team by any stretch of the imagination — but going in, they had no closer,” Suarez recalled. “Joakim was a starter, but they had no closer so they put him in the pen, and he beat everyone else out and before you know it, he was their closer. As an agent, yeah, you want any of your players to be Rule Fived, but you need to be realistic. What team are they going to go to? Like, if you are an infielder and you get Rule Fived by the Seattle Mariners, you say, ‘thank you for bringing me to your big league camp,’ but you know they aren’t going to keep you.”

That’s the reality that faces a handful of players each year following their selection in the Rule 5, but the opportunity with which they’re presented is one that is the envy of other players and agents throughout the game. This year, there were 18 players selected in the Rule 5 Draft, and if history is any indication, the vast majority of them will be returned to their original organization. A few may be picked up by other clubs along the way before being offered back, but it’s rare for a player to survive the season and even more rare for them to then emerge as regulars. For the select few who do, however, the Rule 5 Draft will always be looked at as a watershed moment in their career.

“It is a good thing for players like me that don’t get protected and because of that rule now, I’m a big leaguer,” said Herrera. “…I feel very grateful and very humble for the Rule 5 draft.”

Special thanks to Leo Nunez and Estefany Palacio for translation assistance.

Phillies Extend Odubel Herrera

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SATURDAY: Heyman tweets that Herrera will receive a $1.75MM signing bonus, $1.25MM in 2017, $3MM in 2018, $5MM in 2019, $7MM in 2020, and $10MM in 2021.

FRIDAY: The options come with $2.5MM and $1MM buyouts, respectively, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.

THURSDAY: The Phillies have announced a five-year extension for center fielder Odubel Herrera, which comes with a $30.5MM guarantee, per Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). The deal includes club options for the 2022 and 2023 seasons, which are valued at $11.5MM and $12.5MM, respectively, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (on Twitter). Herrera is represented by Victor Tranquillo.

With the move, the Phils will add control over three projected free-agent seasons over their present and future center fielder. Herrera entered the year with two full years of MLB service, meaning he would have expected to qualify for arbitration next winter and hit the open market in advance of the 2021 season.

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Instead, Herrera — who’ll soon turn 25 — will be under contract through at least his age-29 season. As Gelb notes on Twitter, it appears to be the first significant contract extension the team has struck with a player of such little experience.

Taken as a Rule 5 pick from the Rangers under the former regime, led by much-maligned GM Ruben Amaro Jr., Herrera immediately blossomed into a quality regular. In his first season in the majors, Herrera slashed .297/.344/.418 and contributed eight home runs and 16 steals (though he was also gunned down on eight other attempts). With high-quality, up-the-middle glovework and strong overall baserunning contributions factored in, Herrera was a four-WAR player right out of the gates.

Though his overall offensive output remained at about 10% better than league average in 2016, it’s certainly arguable that Herrera took a big step forward at the plate. He not only trimmed his strikeouts to a 20.4% rate that falls just below league average, but nearly doubled his walk rate to a strong 9.6%. Herrera also jumped to 15 home runs, though he’s still below-average in overall power (.134 ISO), and stole 25 bags (against seven times caught stealing). While both UZR and DRS were somewhat less enamored of his glovework in the sophomore campaign, he still rated comfortably above average in the field and also on the bases.

Even if Herrera’s batting average on balls in play comes back down to earth a bit — he carried a .387 mark in his first year and .349 in his second — he seems a solid bet to deliver at least average offensive work for the foreseeable future. And there’s perhaps room to grow still in the power department after showing some strides, which was especially promising given that it occurred along with the step forward in his plate discipline.

Though Herrera was less productive in the second half — his power and K/BB numbers dipped — the total package is quite appealing. That made this a rather easy deal to make for the Phillies, an organization with massive untapped spending capacity in the future. Even in a true downside scenario, there’s little chance that Herrera’s contract (which is worth only $6.1MM on an average basis annually) will significantly harm the team’s ability to add major league talent.

While a team in the Phillies’ situation doesn’t need to strike early to lock up talent, as the organization can afford to do so later, that doesn’t mean that such a move can’t yield huge dividends. Indeed, as the pre-2015 Adam Eaton extension shows — particularly in light of his recent trade to the Nationals — it’s possible to add quite a bit of value to player control rights by buying out arb years and picking up some options. The Herrera pact is structured identically (five guaranteed years plus two options), though his guarantee handily beats the $23.5MM that Eaton received. Of course, it also fell well shy of the $50MM+ promised to 2+ players such as Matt Carpenter and Andrew McCutchen.

That’s certainly not to say that the deal isn’t a fair one from Herrera’s perspective. He was not a major bonus recipient as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela — various internet reports suggest he was inked for a modest $160K — and had only earned at (and then just over) the MLB minimum in each of the last two seasons. While his current trajectory suggests there would’ve been big earnings to come, none of that was guaranteed, and Herrera’s skillset would not have been particularly lucrative in the arbitration process.

It remains to be seen whether Philadelphia will move to negotiate with any of its other younger assets, though none are quite as established as Herrera. Third baseman Maikel Franco is the other most likely candidate, perhaps, though he may have already secured his downside protection by striking a deal with Fantex. Pitchers such as Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vince Velasquez could conceivably draw consideration as well, though there’s no rush in any of their cases and the club may allow things to play out before reaching any decisions. Looking further down the line, top talent J.P. Crawford and others could eventually be candidates for long-term deals — even, perhaps, before or just after they reach the majors — though we’ve heard nothing to suggest that any such aggressive moves are in the works.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Outfield Notes: Fowler, Dyson, Soler, Herrera, Revere

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The latest in outfielder rumors…

  • The Blue Jays have offered Dexter Fowler a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $60MM, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  This falls short of the $18MM in average annual value that Fowler and his representatives are seeking, though it isn’t such an insurmountable gap that it would rule the Jays out of the running for the free agent outfielder.  The Cardinals continue to be interested in Fowler, Heyman notes, while the Giants and Nationals have also been linked to him in past reports and several other teams are speculative matches for Fowler in all three outfield positions.
  • Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson is another Cardinals target, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter).  Dyson has the benefit of coming at a much lower financial or trade cost than Fowler or Royals teammate Lorenzo Cain, plus he would be a good fit for a St. Louis team that has defensive upgrades as a stated offseason goal.
  • The Royals like Jorge Soler, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine tweets.  Rated as one of the game’s best prospects just two years ago, Soler has shown only a few glimpses of his potential at the MLB level and doesn’t have a clear path to regular playing time within the very crowded Cubs outfield.  The Cubs shopped Soler last offseason, and Levine speculates that a deal could be worked out involving K.C. closer Wade Davis, as Chicago is one of several teams interested in Davis.
  • There is some speculation that the Phillies would be open to trading Odubel Herrera, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets.  It would surely take quite a bit to make a deal happen, as Herrera has gone from Rule 5 pick to an everyday contributor for Philadelphia who has hit .291/.353/.419 and 23 homers over his two big league seasons.
  • With the Angels looking for a fourth outfielder who preferably hits from the left side of the plate, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register speculates that Ben Revere could be a good fit.  Revere had a brutal 2016 season and was non-tendered by the Nationals, but Fletcher notes that he has been an Angels target in the past and could be a potential bounce-back candidate.

Matt Klentak Discusses The Phillies’ Future

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At 65-82, the Phillies’ season may not stand out as a as one that many fans would consider a significant step forward. That Philadelphia is in the midst of a significant rebuild was a widely known fact entering the year, and few expected a major improvement in the standings this season. However, Phillies general manager Matt Klentak, hired to that post just last year, spoke to reporters (including Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com) before yesterday’s game to explain that the organization feels that there was plenty of progress made in 2016.

Among the players to draw praise from Klentak were catcher Cameron Rupp, first baseman Tommy Joseph, second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Freddy Galvis. While Klentak acknowledged that players like Galvis and Joseph (and really, most of the team) need to continue to work on developing their approach at the plate in order to work counts and boost on-base percentage at an individual and at a team level, he also noted the unexpected pop from each player — Joseph due to his status as a non-roster player entering the season and Galvis due to a lack of track record of power — has been a boon for the Phillies.

“Really for any position, but especially for a shortstop, to be approaching 20 homers in a season is pretty impressive,” said Klentak shortly after praising Galvis as “one of the most reliable, dependable shortstops in the league” from a defensive standpoint. While he didn’t directly state the fact, Klentak suggested that he’s cognizant of the fact that Galvis has never walked much and may never do so, explaining that lineups can contain such players as long as it’s not a trait from top to bottom. “The answer to that question may depend on what the rest of the lineup is doing,” the GM responded when asked if Galvis’ defense and power outweighed his .270 OBP.

Galvis’ future standing with the club, of course, has a direct impact on the team’s plans for top prospect J.P. Crawford — the former No. 16 overall draft pick that has risen to become one of the game’s consensus top 10 prospects. While Crawford is viewed as a potential franchise cornerstone at the position, Klentak didn’t shy away from stating that Galvis performed well enough in 2016 that, “Right now … he’s our shortstop.”

The first-year GM pointed to the fact that Crawford still has work to do to develop in the minors, even though he impressed as one of the youngest players at both the Double-A level and Triple-A level in 2016. “Even a 21-year-old at Double-A but certainly Triple-A is aggressive,” said Klentak. “I think he’s proven at both levels that he still has the ability to control the strike zone as well as anybody in our organization and probably the best in Minor League Baseball. I think his defense has taken a step forward. He’s still 21 years old. He still needs to get stronger. He still has some things he needs to work on.”

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Phillies Notes: Herrera, Eflin, Rotation

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Phillies manager Pete Mackanin told reporters after last night’s game that Aaron Altherr will eventually move into center field this year, prompting CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury to explore the possibility of an offseason trade of Odubel Herrera. While Herrera was one of the Phillies’ best players in the season’s first half, he’s hitting just .235/.289/.394 since July 1, and his glovework has taken a step back this season (hence the decision to look at Altherr in center field). Moreover, Salisbury writes that Mackanin has been frustrated recently by some decline in Herrera’s early-season plate discipline and a lack of focus. Philadelphia has outfield alternatives, Salisbury notes, listing both Roman Quinn and Nick Williams, and the team did show it was willing to trade controllable assets last winter by moving Ken Giles.

More on the Phillies…

  • Philadelphia placed rookie right-hander Zach Eflin on the disabled list yesterday due to patellar tendinopathy in both of his knees, per a club announcement. The Phillies aren’t sure if Eflin will pitch again in 2016, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Eflin said he’s had issues with his knees throughout his entire career but this season has been the worst in terms of discomfort. Eflin, who will meet with specialists in Philadelphia before the team determines his next course of action, said the condition has always been “tolerable” and “maintainable.” The 22-year-old tossed a complete game shutout against the Pirates back on July 22 to lower his ERA to 3.40, but he’s been torched for 20 runs in 13 innings since that time.
  • With Eflin joining Aaron Nola and veteran Charlie Morton on the disabled list and the Phils watching the workloads of young arms like Jake Thompson and Vince Velasquez, the club could turn to left-hander Adam Morgan and right-hander David Buchanan for starts down the stretch. Matt Gelb of the Philly Inquirer writes that prospect Ben Lively could get a look as well despite not being on the 40-man roster, as he’ll need to be added this winter anyhow to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Salisbury tweets a reminder that suspended right-hander Alec Asher can be reinstated on Sept. 15 and could provide the Phillies with a much-needed fresh arm in the final weeks of the season. Former Rangers right-hander Phil Klein, who was claimed off waivers earlier this season, represents another 40-man option for the Phillies to make some spot starts through the end of the year, as can be seen on the club’s depth chart.

East Notes: Sox, Buchholz, Braves, Teheran, Phillies

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In his latest rough outing, Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits and five walks Sunday in a 6-2 loss to the Rangers. Afterward, manager John Farrell was noncommittal about Buchholz making his next start, per Scott Lauber of ESPN.com, though he conceded that the team might not have a better option. As their depth chart shows, Triple-A possibilities include Roenis Elias, Henry Owens and Joe Kelly, though each has fared terribly in the majors this year. Buchholz, who has spent some time in the bullpen this season, has logged a 5.90 ERA, 6.13 K/9, 4.24 BB/9 and 41.2 percent ground-ball rate through 76 1/3 innings. Those numbers are all markedly worse than the 31-year-old’s career totals and especially the terrific production he put up in 2015.

More from Boston and a couple NL East cities:

  • The Red Sox are scanning the trade market for help, but there are only five teams that have declared themselves sellers thus far as the Aug. 1 deadline nears, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Sunday. “It’s still a little early,” stated Dombrowski, who added that the Red Sox are “scuffling for positional players at this point.” (Twitter links via Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald). Injuries have sapped the Sox of depth in left field, where Brock Holt, Blake Swihart and Chris Young are all on the disabled list.
  • Red-hot Braves starter Julio Teheran has drawn interest from starter-needy Boston, but Atlanta might be better off retaining the 25-year-old than trading him, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution argues. O’Brien points to Teheran’s age, ultra-palatable contract and the lack of quality starters set to hit free agency during the upcoming offseason as reasons for the rebuilding Braves to go forth with the right-hander, who has thrown 23 straight innings without allowing a run and has lowered his ERA to a stingy 2.46 through 106 frames. Teheran has also recorded career-best strikeout and walk rates per nine innings (8.41 and 2.04, respectively) to this point. ERA estimators like FIP (3.68), xFIP (4.00) and SIERA (3.72) aren’t quite buying his results, but Teheran has consistently outperformed those figures throughout his career.
  • Phillies manager Pete Mackanin admitted Saturday that he’s in a bind with his team’s catchers, Carlos Ruiz and Cameron Rupp. “That’s the hard part of about this job. You have to give up something to get something, and right now we need offense. At least right now, Cam offers more offense,” Mackanin told Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “However, is it more important to guide the young pitcher and bring him along with some veteran experience?” With his .270/.306/.483 batting line and seven home runs in 183 plate appearances, the 27-year-old Rupp has been a bright spot in a toothless Phillies offense, though his 48:6 K:BB ratio doesn’t bode well going forward. However, while Mackanin’s worried about Rupp’s ability (or lack thereof) to aid his pitching staff, the backstop has graded well in the pitch-framing department this year. That’s not true of the 37-year-old Ruiz, who has also contributed to Philly’s offensive woes with a .219/.311/.333 line in 119 trips to the plate. Nevertheless, Mackanin is bullish on Ruiz’s game-calling abilities, notes Gelb.
  • Mackanin had center fielder Odubel Herrera shag fly balls in right field prior to the Phillies’ game Saturday, but that doesn’t mean a position change is coming. “If he reads something into it, good,” said Mackanin (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). “Maybe he’ll think that he needs to do better. There’s nothing imminent. There’s no plans for me to move him out of there.” Notably, Herrera ranks last among qualified center fielders this year in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-7) and also grades poorly in Ultimate Zone Rating, but he has combated his fielding woes with a stellar .299/.392/.427 offensive showing and eight home runs through 319 PAs, also adding 41 walks against 58 strikeouts.

East Notes: Herrera, Rule 5, Red Sox, Mets

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Odubel Herrera’s brilliance has been a key to the Phillies’ surprising success so far this season, and his emergence since being selected in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft highlights the way the Rule 5 has changed in recent years, Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus writes. One reason players like Herrera, Delino DeShields and Ender Inciarte have been available in the Rule 5 in recent years is that teams seem to prefer protecting players who have power, making low-power but potentially high-OBP players available. Also, the emergences of players like those listed above (as well as Hector Rondon, Mark Canha, Logan Verrett and so on) suggests there’s enough talent in the game for MLB to withstand expansion without significantly diluting its talent level — leaving aside the complex question of what markets the league should expand to. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • The Red Sox’ terrific 2011 draft class has become the franchise’s foundation, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. The team had four of the first 40 picks in that draft, and used them to select Jackie Bradley and Blake Swihart, as well as Matt Barnes and Henry Owens. That group alone would have made the draft a good one, but the Sox also snagged Mookie Betts, Travis Shaw and Noe Ramirez in the later rounds. Bradley fell to the Sox at No. 40 in part because of a wrist injury that held him back in his junior year at South Carolina. Bradley was a gamble, and not all gambles on talented players whose stock have fallen work out — MacPherson mentions 2012 first-rounder Deven Marrero, and I might add 2010 39th overall pick Anthony Ranaudo, whose stock fell prior to the draft due to an elbow injury. Bradley, though, was a steal, and he, Betts and the rest of the Sox’ 2011 class looked poised to lead the organization forward.
  • The Mets have no plans to use outfielder Michael Conforto at first base with Lucas Duda on the shelf, ESPN’s Adam Rubin tweets. “Right now Michael has a lot on his plate and I don’t need to add more to it,” says manager Terry Collins. The team is currently weighing its options in the wake of Duda’s injury, and has shown at least some interest in James Loney. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently listed potential first base solutions the Mets could pursue.

Phillies Notes: Chernoff, GMs, Herrera

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Here’s the latest from the City of Brotherly Love…

  • The Phillies were one of multiple teams who asked the Indians for permission to interview assistant GM Mike Chernoff, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi report (Twitter links).  Chernoff is staying in Cleveland, however, and sources tell Rosenthal/Morosi that he could become the Tribe’s next GM.  Current general manager Chris Antonetti would be promoted to a president of baseball operations role.
  • It’s likely the next Phillies GM will have some sort of sabermetric background, so Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News looks at some of the names who have thus far been rumored in connection to the job.  Lawrence also includes the name of Kim Ng, who has yet to be mentioned as a possible candidate, though Andy MacPhail recently used a “he or she” modifier when referring to the new GM.  As Lawrence notes, it could’ve been simple political correctness on MacPhail’s part.
  • Odubel Herrera’s breakout season is profiled by Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer, chronicling the outfielder’s rise from fairly obscure Rule 5 Draft pick to the Phillies’ best player (as judged by both fWAR and bWAR) in 2015.  Herrera has a .287/.333/.407 slash line through 516 PA and has also provided excellent center field defense.  Jorge Velandia, the former MLB infielder and now a member of the Phillies’ player personnel department, is credited with pushing the club to draft Herrera after managing him in the Venezuelan Winter League.

September Rule 5 Roundup

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This year’s Rule 5 draft class has shown that the Winter Meeting-capping selection process still has meaning. As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explained recently, a remarkably high-quality group of players swapped hands last December, and odds are that few of them will end up returning to their original teams.

For reference, here are the season’s leaderboards for the players who have accrued major league statistics, for both Rule 5 hitters and pitchers. Let’s have a look at where things stand with the season all but over (at least so far as Rule 5 roster considerations are concerned).

Keepers With Immediate Function

Far from clogging roster space, Odubel Herrera (Phillies), Delino DeShields Jr. (Rangers), and Mark Canha have all been heavily-used, productive contributors to their respective teams. Herrera, in particular, has been a revelation, tallying over three wins above replacement at 23 years of age.

On the pitching side of the equation, Mets selection Sean Gilmartin has been nothing short of excellent in his 45 2/3 frames with the club. The lefty has worked to a 2.56 ERA and seeming to be quite a useful asset moving forward.

Twins right-hander J.R. Graham, meanwhile, has exceeded Gilmartin in usage — he’s nearing sixty innings for a contending club — but hasn’t matched the results. Graham owns just a 5.09 ERA, though there are some signs of hope for the future. He has a respectable 7.3 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 to go with a 46.8% groundball rate, and SIERA values his contributions at a solid 3.76.

Needless to say, all of the above players will be retained by their new organizations. While many Rule 5ers who are successfully acquired end up back in the minors following their season of limbo, the odds seem good that all of these players will once again be significant pieces of their teams’ puzzles in 2016.

Little-Used, Future-Looking Assets

Of course, there are other Rule 5 selections who are now all but certain to be kept. But the road traveled by their teams involved much more difficult roster juggling. As with Adrian Nieto (White Sox) and Wei-Chung Wang (Brewers) last year, these players were not significant contributors at the major league level despite taking up active roster spots all season long.

25-year-old infielder Taylor Featherston has had at least some function given his valuable glove, but has slashed just .156/.210/.227 in only 141 plate appearances for the Angels. He makes for a nice analogue to Nieto, who similarly was considered a quality defender up the middle who wasn’t quite ready for MLB pitching, but managed to hold on all season long. Featherston could follow suit and return to the minors next year.

This year’s first overall Rule 5 pick Oscar Hernandez missed the beginning of the season for the Diamondbacks when he hit the DL with a broken hamate bone. He was activated in early July, just in time to spend the required ninety days on the active roster to complete a Rule 5 acquisition. He’s slashed just .107/.219/.143 in a meager 33 plate appearances since that time, so he’s all but certain to be sent down in 2016.

Orioles righty Jason Garcia has only thrown 27 innings, posting a 4.33 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9. Like Wang last year, a mid-season injury eased the active roster burden in his case. It’s not yet clear what will happen with Garcia next year, but it’s likely that he’ll go on optional assignment to develop as a starter.

Also set to be retained upon the conclusion of the 2015 season are lefties Andrew McKirahan (Braves) and David Rollins (Mariners). The two southpaws have had startlingly similar paths: PED suspensions that actually made it easier for their clubs to retain them, followed by fairly ugly earned run averages but reasonably promising peripherals in limited action. Both will cross the 90-day threshold this year, so they can be retained without requiring time on the roster to start 2016.

Still In Limbo

It is possible for a player to remain with a selecting team but still remain in limbo. That’s because of the aforementioned 90-day rule. Players that haven’t spent that much time on the active roster due to DL or suspension stints must first accrue the remainder in the following season before they can be permanently acquired. If and when they do reach that point, such players can be freely optioned to the minors by their new teams.

This year there is one such multi-year player: righty Daniel Winkler, was a Tommy John patient who was only just activated recently by the Braves after missing most of the year. Hhe’s yet to appear in competitive action for the Atlanta organization — in the minors or the majors — and had never seen big league action before the year. He’ll pick up just under a month of time on the active roster late this year, and will need to be on the club’s 25-man for about two months at the start of next season for his rights to be kept.

Already Returned

The ride was over months ago for a trio of hurlers: Jandel Gustave, Logan Verrett, and Andy Oliver. The first two were returned to their former teams, while Oliver hit free agency because he was a two-time Rule 5 pick. Interestingly, Verrett has played a reasonably significant role in the majors with his original team since being returned. He’s thrown 23 1/3 innings of 1.93 ERA ball, with 8.9 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9, for the soon-to-be NL East champs.

Phillies Links: Utley, Herrera, Pitching

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Break up the Phillies?  With today’s victory over the Padres, the Phils improved to 16-5 over their last 21 games, a stunning hot streak from a club that was at or near the bottom of the league standings for virtually the entire first half.  Here’s the latest from Philly…

  • Chase Utley reiterated on Saturday that he “would be more than happy to listen to” the team if they presented him with a trade scenario, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports.  “I do love Philadelphia. I’ve had a great time playing here, but out of respect for them, I would definitely listen to them,” Utley said.  The second baseman had always been firm about not waiving his no-trade clause to accommodate a deal, but as Zolecki notes, Utley’s stance softened a bit during Spring Training when he said he’d listen to the team’s proposal if other veterans were dealt.  This is exactly what has come to pass this summer, as Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and Ben Revere were all traded.
  • In another Zolecki piece, Utley said “I think that’s a little too far to look ahead” when asked if he’d still be a Phillie on September 1, and said “who knows?” when asked if he’d expected to finish the season in Philadelphia.
  • Odubel Herrera has been a solid contributor for the Phillies and is earning himself consideration as a long-term building block, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jake Kaplan writes.  Taken from the Rangers in the Rule 5 draft last winter, Herrera boasted a .289/.320/.422 slash line over 343 plate appearances as the Phils’ regular center fielder prior to Sunday’s action.
  • The Phillies should stick to short-term contracts for veterans over the next season or two when filling out roster depth, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes, particularly in the starting rotation.  “There is no sense for them to start digging another financial hole like the one they are almost finished climbing out of,” Murphy writes, arguing that the Phils need to keep payroll flexibility for around 2018 when they’re ready to contend again.
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