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Robert Stephenson

AL West Notes: Stephenson, Canzone, Verlander, Valdez

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Robert Stephenson ended his minor league rehab outing after four pitches yesterday, as the Angels right-hander called for the team trainer and then left the mound.  Manager Ron Washington told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that Stephenson would be undergoing tests, but didn’t offer any other details about the situation.

Shoulder inflammation kept Stephenson from pitching during Spring Training, yet after beginning the season on the 15-day injured list, the reliever seemed to be making good progress in his recovery and was looking to be part of the Angels’ roster before April was over.  Yesterday’s news seems to put that timeline in jeopardy, and the only hope now is that Stephenson’s setback is less ominous than it seemed.  A dominant four-month stretch with the Rays last season turned Stephenson into one of the more sought-after commodities in the free agent relief market this past winter, and the Angels landed the righty on a three-year, $33MM contract.

More from around the AL West….

  • Mariners outfielder Dominic Canzone likely seems headed for the 10-day IL after suffering a left AC joint sprain in today’s game.  In the second inning, Canzone collided with the wall while catching a Mike Tauchman fly ball, and had to be removed from the game.  Playing in his second MLB campaign, Canzone has hit .219/.286/.531 over 35 plate appearances for Seattle, hitting three homers as part of his early-season power surge.  Canzone and Dylan Moore have shared a left-field platoon, but if Canzone is out, Moore could get more of a regular role, or the Mariners could have Luke Raley assume the lefty-swinging side of the platoon.
  • There was plenty of concern for Framber Valdez’s health when elbow soreness sent the southpaw to the Astros’ 15-day injured list earlier this week, but it seems like Valdez may have avoided a serious problem.  Valdez told MLB.com and other media today that he aims to start throwing again on Tuesday, and doesn’t think he’ll need a minor league rehab assignment.  “I feel a lot better now than I did then, and I’ll continue my routine as a starter,” Valdez said.  Needless to say, a return after the minimum 15 days would be a fantastic outcome for Valdez and the Astros, who are already dealing with a lot of injuries in the rotation.
  • Justin Verlander is one of those other Astros arms on the shelf, yet the future Hall-of-Famer is on pace to make his 2024 debut on Friday in a start against the Nationals.  Verlander threw 77 pitches over four innings in his second and likely final Triple-A rehab start yesterday.  Some shoulder soreness delayed Verlander during Spring Training, so the 41-year-old was placed on the 15-day IL to begin the season in order to give him more time to ramp up and prepare for his 19th big league campaign.

Angels Notes: Silseth, Rotation, Stephenson

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The Angels got a bit of a scare recently when right-hander Chase Silseth was placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation and was sent for an MRI. Thankfully, that MRI found just inflammation and no ligament damage. The pitcher himself gave the good news to members of the media yesterday, including Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com, adding that he hopes to be back in about three weeks.

That’s obviously a much better outcome than the worst-case scenario of some kind of surgery that would have wiped out the rest of his season or even part of next year. Silseth was able to toss 52 1/3 innings for the club in a swing role last year with a 3.96 earned run average, showing enough promise to get a rotation job here in 2024. His first two outings didn’t go especially well, resulting in six earned runs allowed over eight innings, but it’s possible the injury was playing a role there.

With Silseth out, the Angels bumped José Soriano into the rotation, alongside Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. Soriano struck out six opponents in four innings last night but also allowed four earned runs on six hits.

It’s just one start and Soriano could certainly get in a better groove going forward, but he also may hit an innings limit at some point if he were to stay in the rotation. He underwent Tommy John surgery in both February of 2020 and June of 2021, meaning he hardly pitched over the 2020 to 2022 period before throwing 65 1/3 innings last year between the majors and minors. Perhaps he can hold down a rotation spot for a few weeks while Silseth is out and then slide back into the bullpen, allowing him to grow his workload relative to last year but without hitting a wall. The Angels are still interested in seeing what he can do as a starter over the long term but they are surely aware that he can’t suddenly launch into the 200-inning range this year.

Turning to the bullpen, Robert Stephenson is going to start a rehab assignment this Sunday, per Bollinger. He was the biggest signing for the Halos this winter, netting himself a three-year, $33MM deal. But he hasn’t yet made his debut as an Angel since he experienced some shoulder soreness during the spring and began the season on the injured list. He recently said he’s targeting a late April return and this seems to be in line with that.

After being acquired by the Rays last year, Stephenson was one of the best relievers in the league. He posted a 2.35 ERA in his 42 appearances, striking out a tremendous 42.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.7% of them. Since he was previously a first-round pick and highly-touted prospect, this seemed to be the long-awaited breakout that didn’t materialize in previous seasons as injuries got in the way. The Angels are still waiting to find out if their bet on Stephenson was a wise one but it seems he’ll be able to join the club shortly.

Getting both Silseth and Stephenson healthy will be good for the club, bolstering both the rotation and the bullpen. The Halos are out to an even 6-6 start through 12 games, but that’s largely in spite of some poor pitching. The club’s collective ERA of 5.09 this year is 29th out of the 30 clubs, ahead of only the Rockies and their dreadful 6.57 mark.

Robert Stephenson Aiming For Late-April Activation From 15-Day IL

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Robert Stephenson’s tenure with the Angels got off to an unwelcome start when the reliever had to start the season on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder inflammation.  The righty provided MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger with an update, saying that his hope is to be available before April is over, though he’ll first need to complete a rehab assignment.

The shoulder soreness first arose before the Angels’ spring camp even opened, and as a result, Stephenson wasn’t able to pitch at all in the Cactus League.  Stephenson will therefore need some extra ramp-up time to try and simulate the Spring Training experience, though he has already started to pick up his throwing progressions.  The right-hander had his first bullpen session on Thursday and another is planned for Monday.

Los Angeles signed Stephenson to a three-year, $33MM free agent deal in January, as the 31-year-old was handsomely rewarded for a major in-season turnaround.  With a penchant for inconsistency both as a starter and then after he became a full-time reliever in 2019, Stephenson had a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings for the Pirates before the Bucs dealt him to Tampa in a somewhat under-the-radar deal.  Stephenson then became the latest in the Rays’ long line of pitching reclamation projects, as he broke out with a 2.35 ERA, eight percent walk rate, and a fantastic 38.3% strikeout rate over 38 1/3 innings in a Tampa Bay uniform.

While the shoulder injury isn’t the best start to a $33MM deal, the Angels are betting that Stephenson can keep the magic going to become a lockdown member of their bullpen.  The Halos invested heavily in their relief corps (and not much else) this winter, adding Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis Garcia, Adam Cimber, and Jose Cisnero as part of an extensive bullpen overhaul.

Robert Stephenson Questionable For Opening Day

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Angels right-hander Robert Stephenson is still dealing with some shoulder discomfort and may not be in game shape by the time the season starts, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Manager Ron Washington tells Fletcher that José Soriano may move back to the bullpen to take Stephenson’s spot.

Stephenson, 31, came into camp with some shoulder soreness and he hasn’t yet appeared in an official Spring Training game. As relayed by Fletcher, Stephenson has resumed throwing full bullpens and still plans on being ready for Opening Day, but he has to get over the discomfort and advance to live batting practice before getting some game work in.

Barring a late March signing of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, the Angels’ most significant move of the offseason will be their three-year, $33MM deal for Stephenson. He got that nice deal for himself based on his stint with the Rays in the second half of 2023, when he was one of the most dominant pitchers in the league.

He made 42 appearances for Tampa last year with a 2.35 earned run average, thanks to a new breaking ball. Statcast classified it as a cutter but Fletcher describes it as a tweak to his slider. Regardless of the terminology, it helped him strike out 42.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.7%. His 28.9% swinging strike percentage was more than double last year’s 11.6% league average for relievers.

The Angels were primarily focused on bullpen upgrades this winter with Stephenson the highlight. The only free agent they signed to a major league deal that wasn’t a pitcher was Aaron Hicks, who only requires the Halos to pay the prorated league minimum since the Yankees are still on the hook for the majority of his contract. Pitchers Matt Moore, Luis García, Adam Cimber, José Cisnero, Adam Kolarek and Zach Plesac got one-year deals with Moore’s $9MM the largest of them.

Stephenson’s deal was larger than all of those, in length and in average annual value. It’s unclear if he will miss much time, or even any at all, but it’s not the ideal start to his tenure with the Angels.

In response to his status, the club may be pivoting with Soriano, as mentioned up top. It was reported a couple of weeks ago that the Angels were planning to stretch him out as a starter, though Washington admitted earlier this week that he wouldn’t be able to secure a rotation spot unless there was an injury to one of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning or Chase Silseth. Now with Stephenson behind schedule, Soriano might return to the bullpen.

“First, you take care of need, and then you can start thinking long term,” Washington said. “We decided we wanted to try to see if Soriano can start, and so far he has proven to us that he possibly can. Now, Stephenson down that means we’ve got a void in the bullpen. Now we’re going to make a decision on our need right there. Long term would be Soriano being a starter. But if we can’t fill that void in the bullpen, Soriano has done it before. We’ve got an option.”

Soriano came up as a starter in the minors but was significantly delayed as he required two Tommy John surgeries in fairly quick succession, one in February of 2020 and the other in June of 2021, which naturally led to him hardly pitching at all in that 2020-2022 period. He was finally healthy last year and tossed 42 innings for the Angels with a 3.64 ERA. His 12.4% walk rate was on the high side, but that’s hardly surprising given the time he missed. He also punched out 30.3% of batters faced and got grounders on 51% of balls in play.

Based on Washington’s comments, it seems the club still thinks Soriano is a viable starter down the road but he may be used in the bullpen for now. In addition to his 42 innings of major league work last year, Soriano also tossed 23 1/3 innings in Double-A, bringing his tally for the year to 65 1/3. After missing most of the previous three seasons, he would probably run into an innings cap at some point this year if he were acting as a starter the whole time, speculatively in the range of 100 to 120 or so.

He does have a couple of options, so the Halos could perhaps use him as a reliever in the big leagues for now but send him down and stretch him back out later in the year if they want to have him log some innings and perhaps get towards a full starter’s workload in 2025.

Angels Notes: Wantz, Stephenson, Suarez

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The Angels are stretching reliever Andrew Wantz out as a starter this spring, manager Ron Washington revealed today in chatting with the team’s beat writers (X link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum). The 28-year-old righty has worked almost exclusively as a reliever dating back to the 2021 season, but the Halos feel they need more rotation depth than they have at present, per Washington.

Wantz has been a frequent contributor in the Anaheim bullpen in each of the past three seasons, posting particularly solid results in 2022-23. Over the last two big league campaigns, he’s totaled 89 1/3 frames and worked to a 3.51 ERA, albeit with more dubious underlying numbers.

Wantz sports a roughly average 23.4% strikeout rate in that time but has walked just under 10% of his opponents and averaged 1.2 big flies per nine frames. He’s had some good fortune on balls in play (.232 BABIP), although as an extreme fly-ball pitcher, he’s more apt to carry a lower-than-average mark in that regard. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.32) and SIERA (4.17) feel he’s been solid but perhaps not quite to the extent his ERA would suggest.

While Wantz is no stranger to working multiple innings — he had 11 appearances lasting two innings in 2023 — he’s never pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in a single big league outing. The transition won’t be entirely foreign to him, given he made 18 minor league starts during the 2019 season, but it’s been a good while since he’s been tasked with working in longer stints.

Of course, if the Angels are truly concerned about their rotation depth, there are some rather straightforward ways to address that need. The free agent market is still rife with options, including top names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, in addition to solid mid-rotation/back-end arms like Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen. There are a handful of rebound candidates who could likely be had on low-cost one-year or even minor league deals, including Eric Lauer, Jake Odorizzi and Johnny Cueto (among others).

From a payroll vantage point, the Angels should be able to accommodate just about anyone — even Snell or Montgomery. After opening the 2023 season with a payroll north of $212MM, they’re projected for a $173.4MM mark, per RosterResource. The Angels are also nearly $50MM shy of the first tier of luxury penalization, so they could accommodate either a long-term deal or a short-term, high-AAV deal with multiple opt-out opportunities, depending on the preferences of Snell/Montgomery. Moving further down the free agent pecking order, someone like Lorenzen or Clevinger could be signed without pushing payroll anywhere close to record levels.

Historically speaking, however, Angels owner Arte Moreno has steadfastly refused to commit long-term deals to pitchers. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, last year’s three-year, $39MM deal with Tyler Anderson was the first time the Halos inked a free agent pitcher to a multi-year deal since Joe Blanton’s two-year deal in 2012. You’d have to go way back to C.J. Wilson in 2011 to find the last time the Halos went more than three years on a pitcher.

The Angels haven’t eschewed spending entirely, but they’ve once again focused their free agent efforts on the bullpen. That’s been a familiar trend for the Angels in recent years. Already this offseason, they’ve committed a combined a combined $50.6MM to Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, Luis Garcia, Jose Cisnero and Adam Kolarek. Dating back to the 2021-22 offseason, the Angels have given out 13 big league deals to free-agent relievers — including five multi-year pacts (topped by Raisel Iglesias’ four-year, $58MM deal).

It’s been a questionable strategy for them, given the team’s results over the years. And this year’s group is already off to a somewhat dubious start. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, Stephenson — who signed a three-year, $33MM deal this winter — is dealing with shoulder soreness and is behind schedule in camp. The right-hander believes he’ll be able to pitch at some point this spring but might not be ready for Opening Day.

It’s a suboptimal start to his Angels tenure after the team made a weighty three-year investment on the heels of Stephenson’s four-month breakout with the Rays. The hard-throwing righty was long viewed as an interesting prospect and has had flashes of excellence in his big league career. He’d never put together any kind of run like he did with Tampa Bay last year, though.

After being acquired from the Pirates in a trade sending infielder Alika Williams to Pittsburgh, Stephenson snapped off 38 1/3 innings of 2.35 ERA ball with a gaudy 42.9% strikeout rate against just a 5.7% walk rate. Beyond the eye-popping strikeout rate, Stephenson posted a superhuman 28.9% swinging-strike rate (nearly triple the 11.1% league average) and induced chases on pitches off the plate at a stunning 47.2% clip that topped the league-average 31.9% rate by nearly 16 percentage points.

The Angels are surely envisioning Stephenson as a critical part of their high-leverage relief corps, but word of an early shoulder issue that’s slowed his progression is obviously somewhat ominous. To this point, there’s no indication of a serious issue, but given the magnitude of the team’s investment in the righty, it’s understandable if the Halos want to proceed with caution. Stephenson played catch yesterday and felt good after throwing, Fletcher notes.

Stephenson isn’t the only pitcher in camp who’s a bit banged up. Washington also revealed today (via Fletcher) that lefty Jose Suarez hasn’t pitched yet due to a “dead arm” following winter ball. He’s expected to get on the mound at some point this spring and could yet be ready for Opening Day, but that’s not a given.

It’s a tough way to start a pivotal spring for the 26-year-old Suarez. As recently as 2021-22, he looked the part of a controllable fourth starter who could hold a rotation spot in Anaheim for several years. The 2023 season was an unmitigated disaster for the southpaw, however. Shoulder trouble limited him to just 33 2/3 big league innings (plus another 3 1/3 frames of rehab work), and he was shelled for an 8.29 ERA in that time. Suarez served up a massive ten home runs in that small sample (2.67 HR/9), saw his strikeout rate plummet from 22.3% to 17%, and watched his walk rate spike from 7.1% to 12.1%.

A 2024 rebound for Suarez is particularly critical, given that he’s now out of minor league options. If he opens the season on the injured list, that’d actually give the Angels a few weeks to take a look at Suarez in the minors on a rehab assignment, but whenever he’s healthy, he’ll either need to be on the big league roster or else be traded to a team who’ll carry him or exposed to outright waivers.

MLBTR Podcast: The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Does J.D. Martinez make sense for the Angels? (24:30)
  • With the Mets in rebuild/retooling mode and the Mariners in need of another infield bat (and a surplus of controllable young arms), is there a trade there? (27:55)
  • How odd is it that we are this late in January and have several players likely to get multi-year deals? (31:55)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Angels Sign Robert Stephenson To Three-Year Contract

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The Angels announced the signing of reliever Robert Stephenson to a three-year contract on Tuesday afternoon. Stephenson, a client of Apex Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $33MM. There’s also a conditional team option for the 2027 campaign based on Stephenson’s elbow health. If the pitcher suffers an elbow ligament injury that causes him to miss 130 consecutive days, the Halos would have a $2.5MM option on his services for a fourth season. He will otherwise make $11MM annually over the next three years.

Stephenson, 31 next month, was the top remaining free agent reliever once Josh Hader came off the board. Within a couple hours of Hader agreeing to a five-year, $95MM pact with the Astros, Stephenson decided to join him in the AL West.

A three-year guarantee for Stephenson would have seemed outlandish six months ago. Until last summer, he looked like a volatile middle innings arm. A former first-round pick and highly-regarded prospect with the Reds, Stephenson struggled early in his career as a starter. He moved to relief full-time in 2019 and had an up-and-down trajectory.

The 6’3″ righty turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in 2019 and ’21 before a rough 2022 campaign. He split the year between the Rockies and Pirates, allowing a 5.43 ERA through 58 innings. Stephenson opened last season with 14 innings of nine-run ball in Pittsburgh.

An early June trade sending him to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams didn’t result in a ton of fanfare. It wound up being one of the more adept rental acquisitions of the summer, though, one that completely changed his fortunes in free agency.

Stephenson was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the majors for the season’s final four months. During his time in Tampa Bay, he worked to a 2.35 ERA across 38 1/3 innings. He punched out a laughable 42.9% of hitters while walking fewer than 6% of batters faced. Among relievers with 30+ innings after June 1, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks punched hitters out at a higher rate.

Even that doesn’t capture how overpowering he was on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Opponents whiffed more often than they made contact. Hitters put the bat on the ball on 49.3% of their swings against Stephenson in Tampa Bay. That wasn’t simply the best mark in MLB. It was almost 10 percentage points lower than anyone else over that stretch. Chapman, against whom batters made contact on 59% of their swings, was second.

It’s not hard to pinpoint a reason for that excellence. Before he went to Tampa Bay, he paired a near-97 MPH four-seam fastball with a mid-80s slider. With the Rays, he leaned mostly on an upper-80s breaking ball that Statcast classifies as a cutter. Opponents couldn’t do anything with that pitch. They swung through it nearly three-fifths of the time and hit .101 in 79 at-bats. By the season’s final month, he was using the pitch at a near-75% clip.

Whether Stephenson adopted the cutter from scratch or just found a way to add a couple ticks of velocity to his former slider isn’t clear. In any event, it’s a pitch he’ll surely lean on frequently in Orange County. The Angels can’t expect him to maintain quite the level he showed in Tampa Bay — that’d be a tough ask for anyone — but they’re surely anticipating him stepping in as a quality high-leverage arm.

That’s not without risk. Stellar as Stephenson’s finish was, his time in Tampa Bay comprised fewer than 40 innings. From his 2019 bullpen transfer through his stint in Pittsburgh, he tallied a 4.53 ERA in 192 2/3 frames between three teams. Some of that can be attributed to playing in hitter-friendly home venues in Cincinnati and Colorado, but he clearly wouldn’t have been a candidate for a three-year pact had he not finished the way he did. His 26.9% strikeout rate over those four-plus seasons was a solid but hardly elite number.

It’s the first significant acquisition of the offseason for the Halos. While Stephenson is their fourth bullpen pickup overall, the other three signings were modest one-year investments. Luis García landed a $4.75MM deal, while Adam Cimber inked a $1.65MM pact after being non-tendered by Toronto. Adam Kolarek, who signed for $900K, was already outrighted off the 40-man roster.

Stephenson will work in the late innings. He doesn’t have any closing experience, so the Halos could elect to leave last year’s key bullpen pickup, Carlos Estévez, in the ninth inning. The pair of righties should take the bulk of the most important work late in games. García and Cimber will occupy middle relief roles, while Ben Joyce and José Soriano could hold setup jobs.

It’s a high-octane group built around some of the hardest throwers in the sport. Joyce averaged nearly 101 MPH on his heater and famously was clocked as high as 105 MPH in college. Estévez and García sit north of 97 MPH on average. Soriano and Stephenson have upper 90s velocity in their back pocket as well, even if both lean more frequently on their breaking stuff.

New manager Ron Washington should appreciate the stable of power arsenals at his disposal, although the Halos likely need to add another left-hander to the mix. That could put the finishing touch on the bullpen, yet there’s still plenty of work for GM Perry Minasian and his front office.

The Halos haven’t made any acquisitions on the offensive side to compensate for Shohei Ohtani’s departure. That’s also true in the rotation. They’ve looked for ways to add a top-end starter. In addition to scouring the trade market, the Halos have reportedly shown interest in defending NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell.

There should still be plenty of payroll room at their disposal. Roster Resource projected the 2024 player payroll around $153MM before the Stephenson signing. Evenly distributing his salaries pushes that around $164MM. The Halos opened last season with a payroll at roughly $212MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ll still be almost $50MM shy of that mark. They’re also nowhere near next year’s $237MM base luxury tax threshold. Stephenson’s $11MM average annual value will push the Angels’ projected CBT number to roughly $179MM.

The contract comes in just below MLBTR’s prediction of four years and $36MM. It’s in line with the going rate for high-leverage relievers with some inconsistency in their career track record, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Stephenson’s deal generally aligns with those signed by Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM), Rafael Montero (three years, $34.5MM), Joe Jiménez (three years, $26.5MM), former Angel Reynaldo López (three years, $30MM) and Jordan Hicks (four years, $44MM) over the last two offseasons.

@Jolly_Olive first reported the Angels and Stephenson had agreed to a three-year deal exceeding $30MM with a 2027 option. Sam Blum of the Athletic reported the $33MM guarantee. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the $2.5MM conditional option based on Stephenson’s arm health. The Associated Press reported the 130-inning provision and the evenly distributed salaries.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets, Phillies Interested In Robert Stephenson

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Free agent right-hander Robert Stephenson continues to receive plenty of attention, with Jon Morosi of MLB.com listing the Mets, Dodgers and Phillies as clubs with interest in him. The Dodgers have previously been connected to the righty, as have the Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels, Cubs, Red Sox and Orioles, though some of those clubs have subsequently pivoted to other bullpen moves.

Though Stephenson might not be a household name, the popularity is understandable since Stephenson was one of the best relievers in the game during the second half of 2023. The Rays acquired him from the Pirates in early June and he went on to make 42 appearances for Tampa with a 2.35 earned run average. He only walked 5.7% of the batters he faced in that time while punching out 42.9% of them.

From the start of June to the end of the season, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks had higher strikeout rates among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. But all three of them had higher walk rates, meaning Stephenson’s strikeout-to-walk ratio was higher than those three. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR put Stephenson in the #27 slot on the annual Top 50 Free Agents post with a prediction of a four-year, $36MM contract.

That’s a far cry from the six years and $110MM predicted for Josh Hader, which is a reflection of the differences in their track record. Hader has years of dominant relief work on his résumé while a team signing Stephenson would be banking on a few good months. But he has shown glimpses of his potential in the past, having been a first-round pick of the Reds in 2011 and a top 100 prospect as he worked his way up the minor league ladder.

He began his major league career as a starter and struggled, but a move to the bullpen seemed to work for him. He had a 3.76 ERA with the Reds in 2019, had a rough time in the shortened 2020 season, then rebounded with a 3.13 ERA for the Rockies in 2021. He struggled early in 2022 but finished strong after a claim by the Pirates. He started 2023 with some arm discomfort and struggled out of the gate, before getting traded to the Rays and having the aforementioned breakout.

That inconsistency would appear to make him more of a risk than Hader, but that will also make him more affordable and perhaps give some more upside to whoever eventually gets him to put pen to paper. If he signs for a guarantee roughly a third of what Hader gets and then can maintain his dominance going forward, it would be a clear bargain. But another swoon in his performance would obviously push things the other way.

If the Mets were to be the club to take the plunge, it would be at least a bit of a surprise. President of baseball operations David Stearns did just say last week that he expected more work to be done on the bullpen, and owner Steve Cohen has shown that he isn’t afraid to throw money around when he wants to get a deal done. But on the other hand, the club has been shifting gears this winter, opting for short-term and depth moves as they do a sort of retool.

The only multi-year deal they’ve given out so far this winter was a two-year pact for Sean Manaea, with that deal having an opt-out halfway through. The Mets have also given one-year deals to Luis Severino Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It seems the plan is to limit long-term commitments as they assess some internal players and decide how to proceed with more aggression next winter.

Beyond their own habits this offseason, there’s the competitive balance tax to consider. Roster Resource pegs the club’s CBT number at $318MM right now, well beyond the top tier of the tax, which is $297MM. As a third-time payor at that level, all further spending comes with a 110% tax rate, meaning they would have to pay out more than double the amount Stephenson would make. Combining that with their modest operating strategy in recent months, they may not end up with Stephenson on the roster, but they could make it happen if they decided they really wanted to.

As for the Phillies, they’ve had a relatively quiet winter, apart from re-signing Aaron Nola. The 2024 bullpen looks quite similar to the 2023 version, though Craig Kimbrel reached free agency and signed with the Orioles. That relief corps posted a collective 3.58 ERA last year, the seventh-best mark in the league. But relievers are known to be a fungible bunch and the club already has a strong lineup and rotation, leaving the bullpen as an obvious target area for the remainder of the offseason.

José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto and Matt Strahm all had strong results last year, to varying degrees, and will be back this year. Orion Kerkering had an exciting season, blasting through four minor league levels and then having an enticing MLB debut. Dylan Covey had some interesting results in a low-strikeout, high-grounder fashion while Andrew Bellatti took a step back from a strong 2022 season.

It’s a strong group overall but any club could benefit from adding an elite reliever and bumping everyone down a peg on the chart. The Phillies currently have a CBT number of $252MM, per Roster Resource, which puts them over the $237MM base and nearing the $257MM second line. They finished last year between the second and third line and perhaps would be comfortable ending up in that range again. Crossing the $277MM third line would involve the club’s top pick in the 2025 draft being moved back 10 places, in addition to a higher tax rate. Perhaps the club would view that as a sort of barrier, but they have plenty of room to add a reliever on a significant contract even if that is a line they don’t want to cross.

For clubs that miss out on Hader and Stephenson, some of the other relievers still available include Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, David Robertson, Héctor Neris and Phil Maton.

Red Sox Reportedly Interested In Robert Stephenson, Amed Rosario

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The Red Sox have made clear throughout the offseason that adding to the club’s starting rotation is their top priority this winter but MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reports that Boston’s pursuit of rotation arms hasn’t stopped them from looking elsewhere, even beyond their reported pursuit of outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. Per Cotillo, the Red Sox also have interest in righty reliever Robert Stephenson and infielder Amed Rosario, though Cotillo goes on to caution that it’s uncertain how strong the club’s interest is in either player.

Rosario, 28, made his big league debut for the Mets in 2017 and was essentially a league average starter at shortstop in Queens and (after being included as part of the return package for Franciscor Lindor) Cleveland from 2019-22 as he slashed .282/.315/.412 while playing defense that fluctuated from above average to well below average on a year-to-year basis. 2023 was something of a down year for Rosario, as he slashed just .265/.306/.369 with brutal defensive numbers in 92 games for the Guardians before being swapped to the Dodgers midseason, with whom he saw significantly reduced laying time. In all, Rosario finished the season with a wRC+ of 88 and just 0.2 fWAR, the worst full season of his career. Rosario clocked in as the 39th free agent on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a two-year, $18MM deal.

Despite Rosario’s many flaws, he’d nonetheless be a sensible addition for a Boston club that got the second-worst production in the majors from the keystone last season. Even Rosario’s .263/.305/.378 slash line from last season would be a significant improvement over the .240/.286/.376 slash line Red Sox second baseman posted in 2023, and Rosario performed solidly on defense at second base in 36 games with the Dodgers at the position last year, his first taste of the role at the big league level. While Rosario may not be the most impactful free agent available on the market, the Red Sox would shore up their depth at a clear position of need by adding him and would do so without blocking the club’s top infield prospects such as Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke from playing their way into the big leagues later in the year.

Stephenson, on the other hand, is coming off a much stronger platform season. The 30-year-old right-hander was a first-round pick in the 2011 draft by the Reds and made his big league debut as a starter back in 2016. Stephenson struggled badly in the role for parts of three seasons in the majors before eventually converting to the bullpen full time in 2019, where he found more success. The righty posted a 3.76 ERA (125 ERA+) and a 3.63 FIP in his first season as a full-time reliever, and after being limited to just ten innings of work during the shortened 2020 season was traded to Colorado in exchange for Jeff Hoffman. Stephenson’s first season with the Rockies went exceptionally well, as the righty posted a 3.13 ERA with a 3.63 identical to that of his 2019 campaign.

Stephenson struggled in the 2022 season, which he split between the Rockies and Pirates, and started off 2023 on a rough note by allowing nine runs (eight earned) in just fourteen innings for Pittsburgh. Stephenson’s fortunes quickly turned when the calendar flipped to June and the Pirates shipped him to the Rays, with whom he would have the most dominant stretch of his career. After changing his pitch mix to replace his slider with a cutter as his primary breaking ball, Stephenson struck out an incredible 42.9% of batters faced during his time with the Rays while walking just 5.7%. The top-level run prevention numbers are just as impressive, as the righty posted a 2.35 ERA and 2.45 FIP across 38 1/3 innings of work with the Rays this year. That strong production led MLBTR to rank Stephenson as the offseason’s 27th-best free agent, with a prediction of a four-year, $36MM deal.

That being said, the fit between Stephenson and Boston isn’t quite as clean as it is with Rosario. The Red Sox boasted a strong bullpen in 2023 anchored by veteran right-handers Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, to say nothing of solid campaigns from the likes of Josh Winckowski and John Schreiber. Such a solid mix of righties in the club’s bullpen leaves the Red Sox seemingly unlikely to outbid bullpen-needy teams such as the Rangers, Astros, Cardinals and Cubs for Stephenson’s services. That being said, Cotillo suggests that the Red Sox may see a Stephenson signing as a method to leverage that bullpen depth and work out a trade of Jansen, Martin, or Schreiber. Speculatively speaking, a deal packaging a top relief arm like Jansen or Martin with a young outfielder like Wilyer Abreu or Jarren Duran could be enticing for a club with starting pitching depth available such as the Astros or Marlins that likely needs to improve other areas of the roster.

Free Agent Faceoff: Jordan Hicks/Robert Stephenson

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Aside from an early flurry by the Braves, there hasn’t been much movement on the relief market. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, seven relievers have signed a deal that guarantees more than $10MM since the end of the regular season. Atlanta inked three of those contracts, two of which (for Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez) came just before the opening of free agency.

There’s no question who tops the class; that’s Josh Hader. The #2 reliever is a matter of debate. One could’ve made arguments for Jiménez, Reynaldo López or even NPB closer Yuki Matsui (who signed a five-year, $28MM pact with San Diego). On our Top 50 free agents, we slotted Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson as the top bullpen arms behind Hader. We predicted four-year pacts for both players, pegging Hicks for a $40MM deal and Stephenson at $36MM.

Neither pitcher has a multi-year track record of consistency. Yet they’re each hitting the market at an opportune time, coming off strong platform showings that demonstrate significant upside.

Hicks throws as hard as anyone in the game. His sinker averaged a little above 100 MPH, reaching 103-104. The velocity hasn’t translated into quite as many whiffs as it might seem, as the downhill action on the pitch works better as a ground-ball offering.

The righty has kept the ball on the ground on three-fifths of batted balls over the course of his career. His 24.5% career strikeout rate is more solid than exceptional, although he fanned a personal-high 28.4% of opponents last season. In addition to his eye-popping velocity and huge ground-ball numbers, Hicks has age on his side. He turned 27 in September, making him the youngest free agent reliever of note.

The primary concerns with Hicks are his control and injury history. He has never thrown strikes at a league average rate, walking over 10% of opponents in every season (including an 11.2% clip last year). While Hicks turned in a fully healthy platform year with the Cardinals and Blue Jays in 2023, he missed significant time between 2019-22. Much of that was a result of Tommy John surgery in June 2019. He lost a good portion of the ’21 campaign to continued elbow inflammation, while a flexor strain in his forearm cost him a chunk of the ’22 season.

Stephenson, who turns 31 in February, hasn’t had the same level of alarming arm issues. His career performance track record is spottier, though, as he has allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 364 1/3 frames. Some of that is a reflection of pitching in hitter-friendly parks in Cincinnati and Colorado, but Stephenson also posted unspectacular results in 28 1/3 innings with the Pirates.

As recently as last summer, he seemed a fairly nondescript pitcher. He’d been a highly-regarded prospect and showed intriguing stuff without much success at the MLB level. Things turned following an early June trade to the Rays.

In 38 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay, Stephenson posted a 2.35 ERA while striking out 42.9% of opponents. He missed bats on an astounding 28.7% of his offerings. That was not only the highest rate in MLB over that stretch, it was nearly eight percentage points above second-place Félix Bautista. Over the season’s final four months, he was handily the most dominant reliever in the majors on a pitch-for-pitch basis.

Stephenson doesn’t have the triple-digit velocity of Hicks. Averaging 97 MPH on the heater is more than sufficient, though. He introduced an upper-80s cutter in Tampa Bay, against which hitters made contact on only 40% of their swings. Stephenson has the decided edge in swing-and-miss potential. The question is how much of his dominant four months in Tampa Bay is replicable. He’s unlikely to continue missing bats at that exceptional clip — no pitcher should be expected to maintain that kind of pace — but he’s markedly better than the hurler who owned a career 4.91 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate before the trade.

There has been some overlap in the Hicks and Stephenson markets. That’s sensible considering they’re probably the top remaining options for teams that don’t want to meet Hader’s asking price. The Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels and Orioles are among the clubs linked to both pitchers this winter (although Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel). The Red Sox and Cardinals have been tied to Hicks, while the Cubs and Dodgers were linked to Stephenson early in the offseason.

Which one should teams prioritize? Lean in favor of Hicks’ youth and velocity or Stephenson’s bat-missing potential?

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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