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Red Sox Winter Meetings Preview

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Peter Abraham takes a look at the Red Sox checklist as they head into this year's Winter Meetings. Abraham is sure to note that his focus is on what Boston needs, not the fantasy trade scenarios that fans may want. Says Abraham, "The Sox needs refining, not rebuilding." That said, let's take a look:

  • The easy solution in left field is to bring back Jason Bay. Abraham says though, that the acquisition of Jeremy Hermida presents Boston with the option of signing a right-handed hitter, such as Xavier Nady, to form a platoon. The Red Sox could also let Bay go in favor of pursuing Matt Holliday.
  • While the rotation appears to be set for now with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Tim Wakefield, Abraham says the Sox could use a "No. 5.5 starter, a No. 6, and possibly a No. 7" for depth. He names the usual suspects, including Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, and Rich Harden.
  • Boston has requested medical reports on Mike Gonzalez, and will need to fill out the back of the bullpen for 2010. Abraham feels the Red Sox will invite about a dozen relievers to camp and see who performs well.
  • Boston should look to add a veteran outfielder and infielder for bench depth. Abraham says Boston doesn't seem interested in keeping Rocco Baldelli around. He names Adam Everett, Craig Counsell, Reed Johnson, Marcus Thames, and Adam Kennedy as options.
  • Abraham doesn't see Buchholz, Casey Kelly, or Ryan Westmoreland being dealt. He names Casey Kotchman, Josh Reddick, and Manny Delcarmen as trade chips.
  • Abraham also speculates on the possibility of Jonathan Papelbon being traded. With Daniel Bard waiting in the wings, this isn't the first time someone has speculated on the possibility of Papelbon being shipped off.

Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Wagner, Beckett, V-Mart

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Theo Epstein says talks between the Red Sox and Jason Bay are still in their early stages, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Here are the details and the rest of Silverman's rumors:

  • Epstein expects Bay to explore free agency, but the Red Sox are willing to wait for the left fielder to do so, at least to an extent.
  • The Red Sox may bring Alex Gonzalez back. They turned down his $6MM option earlier in the week, but the sides could agree on a deal that guarantees the 32-year-old less money.
  • The Red Sox are open to signing Victor Martinez and Josh Beckett to long-term deals, but any such extensions aren't likely to be finalized until much later in the offseason.
  • Epstein expects Billy Wagner to look for a closer's job. He'll have to find a team willing to give up a draft pick if the Red Sox offer him arbitration, since he's a Type A free agent.
  • The Red Sox may bring Rocco Baldelli back.

Cafardo On Gonzalez, Nady, Mulder

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Nick Cafardo's latest column for the Boston Globe is a lengthy one, and is full of hot stove discussion and speculation. Let's take a look….

  • After Ken Rosenthal expressed skepticism about Boston's ability to acquire Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres, Cafardo declares that it's the one move the Red Sox have to make to keep up with the Yankees. Although he presents a lengthy argument for why it could work, he never specifically addresses what players the Sox could send to San Diego, which was the sticking point for Rosenthal.
  • Xavier Nady would like to return to the Yankees, but doesn't know if they'll want him back. "I know I can go out there and be a productive starting player for someone," Nady says. As Cafardo points out though, after Nady's injury-plagued 2009, many teams would probably prefer to sign him as a fourth outfielder.
  • Cafardo thinks the Los Angeles Dodgers should consider signing Pedro Martinez to a half-year deal in 2010, and that Philadelphia could be a good fit for Billy Wagner.
  • The Jeremy Hermida acquisition raises questions about Rocco Baldelli's future as a Red Sox. Baldelli says he enjoyed Boston and would love to return, but that the team hasn't informed him of their plans yet.
  • "It would be an upset" if Mark Mulder signed anywhere but Milwaukee.
  • One baseball official tells Cafardo that the New York Yankees might be a bit reluctant to re-sign Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui because "they’re afraid of sticking with a guy too long. They’d rather get rid of a guy a year sooner, ahead of his decline, than a year later."

Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Baldelli, Papelbon

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Boston's season may have ended prematurely, but that just means the New England hot stove fires up sooner. Here's some notes from Amalie Benjamin of The Boston Globe and Joe McDonald of The Providence Journal:

  • To no one's surprise, Jason Bay indicated that he'll dip his toe in the free agent waters, saying he'd be doing himself "a disservice" if he didn't look around.
  • Alex Gonzalez's $6MM club option "might be a little rich for the Sox," so the two sides are likely to sit down and find a more palatable number. Nick Green could also come back, though it would strictly be a depth signing.
  • Unless Boston attempts to rekindle talks with the Mariners about Felix Hernandez, their 2010 rotation looks fairly settled.
  • As Benjamin notes, Boston's farm system doesn't offer much at the upper levels of the minors, so instead the team is "faced with re-signing their players, checking out a less-than-stellar free agent market, or going the trade route."
  • Rocco Baldelli's future with the club is up in the air, as GM Theo Epstein said they'll "sit down and talk about what the fit looks like next year –– if there is one."
  • In a radio appearance this morning, ESPN's Steve Phillips said he expects Boston to dangle Jonathan Papelbon, perhaps for an impact bat, according to WEEI's Alex Speier. The free agent market for closers isn't great, and at least Papelbon offers two years of club control. Those will be two expensive years, though.

Red Sox Rumors: Baldelli, Gonzalez

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The latest on Rocco Baldelli and Alex Gonzalez…

  • Baldelli tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that, though he prefers not to discuss his upcoming free agency, he has enjoyed his role with the Red Sox. The Red Sox signed him to a one-year $500k deal last offseason and he has responded with a .254/.315/.462 line.
  • Billy Wagner insisted that the Red Sox agree to turn down his 2010 option as a condition of the trade that sent him to Boston. He had leverage because of his no-trade clause and decided to use it, as players in similar situations often do. 
  • Alex Gonzalez also had a no-trade clause, but, as he tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com, decided not to use it to obtain leverage of any sort. He knew right away that he wanted to join the Red Sox, so his decision was simple.

Stark On Red Sox Offseason Moves

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In his latest column, Jayson Stark weighs in on the moves the Red Sox made this off-season. While Boston did not spend nearly as much as the Yankees, their moves have a ton of upside potential and that no team "had a more underrated offseason than the Red Sox."

  • Stark spoke to one scout that thinks the Red Sox did a better job than the Yankees at filling their needs through free agency.
  • Stark notes that the amount of guaranteed dollars for the Red Sox four free agents (John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Rocco Baldelli) is less than what the Yankees will pay AJ Burnett this season.
  • The Red Sox moves also did not leave the team with "long-term inflexibility."
  • One scout believes Smoltz will come back healthy at some point and compares the signing to trading for an impact pitcher at the trade deadline. Stark says the Sox believe $5.5MM for Smoltz is a better gamble than a five- or seven-year deal for "any free-agent pitcher."
  • Stark notes that Penny did not need off-season surgery and one scout says pitching coach John Farrell is the one person that should be able to get the best out of Penny.
  • One scout says that if Saito is healthy, the Red Sox got a steal.
  • Stark says the Red Sox rotation is more "October-ready" than the Yankees, even if the Yankees have the better long-term outlook.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.

Odds and Ends

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A few links on a slow Friday night:

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Pirates, Rays, Pettitte, Cubs, Dodgers, Gomes, Mauer, Cruz

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On this date 28 years ago, the Red Sox traded Fred Lynn to the California Angels for Frank Tanana and Joe Rudi. After six seasons that included an MVP and six all-star appearances, the Red Sox were forced to trade Lynn when the front office failed to mail a new contract to Lynn by the mandated deadline. Without the new contract, Boston was faced with the possibility that Lynn would be declared a free agent (Carlton Fisk was declared a free agent for the same reason). The player’s association dropped their case when Lynn agreed to a contract extension with the Angels. With many of this year’s free agent class still waiting for contracts to be mailed, let’s take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • Bucco Blog sees an Adam LaRoche-Jonathan Sanchez trade as a "win-win deal."
  • DRays Bay would like to see the Tigers take either Troy Percival or Dan Wheeler off the Rays’ hands.
  • Mets Geek makes a case for the Mets signing Andy Pettitte.
  • Goat Riders of the Apocalypse are not worried that the Cubs have traded away yet another former top prospect.
  • Center Field isn’t buying that Jason Varitek didn’t know about the draft pick compensation as a result of his refusing arbitration.
  • Her Rays isn’t taking the loss of Rocco Baldelli well at all.
  • Dodger Thoughts doesn’t understand why the Dodgers keep spending money on veteran, offensively-challenged backup catchers that will never play.
  • Anaheim Angels all the way says the Reds replaced "90% of Adam Dunn" with Jonny Gomes and a very favorable contract. On Baseball and the Reds is not sure Gomes’ offense will offset his horrible defense and sees him as a decent platoon option.
  • UmpBump grades the Rays offseason favorably.
  • El Lefty Malo laments the contract of Dave Roberts and feels he is the type of player that would be forced to retire if he were a free agent this off-season.
  • Twins Geek speculates on what it would take to sign Joe Mauer to a long-term deal.
  • Bullpen Call sees only the Mets and Yankees as options for Juan Cruz.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here.

Fay, Jocketty Discuss Reds: Baldelli, Abreu, Nady, Swisher

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Once again, John Fay and Walt Jocketty have discussed some Reds offseason activity.

  • The Reds were very much in on Rocco Baldelli, and were offering about the same money as the Red Sox. In the end, it appears Baldelli made his choice based on geography. Of course, the Red Sox do have the better team, albeit in a much more difficult division.
  • At first, Fay interpreted this to mean the Reds now have $7.5MM available to spend; however, when asked, Jocketty said that might not be true.
  • Fay suggests Bobby Abreu might fill some team needs. According to Jocketty, "He’s still looking for a big contract," and thus, Jocketty says he’s "not sure he’s a fit."
  • Fay holds to the theory that the Reds and Yankees could match up well, with Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher being mentioned specifically.

Heyman On Manny, Lowe, Crede, Redding, Hinske

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The latest from SI.com’s Jon Heyman…

  • The Giants "look like a major threat" to the Dodgers for Manny Ramirez and are "making a serious run at him."  Former teammate J.T. Snow apparently raved about him.  Nonetheless Heyman says the Dodgers are "probably still considered the favorite."  Heyman lists the Rangers as "intrigued."  He believes Ramirez will get three guaranteed years somewhere.
  • Heyman says Derek Lowe is "quite possibly" in play for the Phillies, though we heard from Ken Rosenthal today that the team denied interest.  Heyman also sticks with the Brewers and Angels as outside possibilities despite reports to the contrary.  He believes Mets GM Omar Minaya prefers Oliver Perez to Lowe.
  • The Giants, Twins, and Rangers are in on Joe Crede.
  • Players said to be in on Freddy Garcia: the Mets, White Sox, and Rangers.  We can probably cross off the Mets with their Tim Redding signing.
  • Heyman believes the Dodgers want to replace Brad Penny with Randy Wolf.
  • Heyman says the Pirates offered more guaranteed money than the Red Sox to Rocco Baldelli.  Dejan Kovacevic had this first in an article published early this morning.
  • The Red Sox were looking at Eric Hinske but with Baldelli and Mark Kotsay in tow it’s unlikely.  A Japanese team has "allegedly shown interest" in Hinske.
  • Before signing with the Rays for two years and $16MM, Pat Burrell was getting offers in the one-year, $5MM range.
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