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Angels Notes: Adell, Moniak, Injuries, Ohtani

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The Angels made a small signing earlier this week, bringing Brett Phillips aboard with a $1.2MM deal to be the club’s fourth outfielder. With Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Hunter Renfroe set to be the primary starters on the grass, it seems the outfield jobs are now spoken for. Barring injury, that doesn’t leave much opportunity for players like Jo Adell or Mickey Moniak.

The club’s general manager Perry Minasian spoke about the situation yesterday, with Sam Blum of The Athletic and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register each relaying some of his comments. “Those jobs are solidified,” Minasian said, implying that Adell and Moniak are likely to begin the season in the minors. “Those are obviously young players who are very talented that haven’t necessarily turned the corner yet that have been putting in a significant amount of work this offseason to do that,” Minasian said. “They’re both young. I think we forget about how young these two players are.”

The two players have followed similar trajectories thus far. Adell, 24 in April, was the first round draft pick of the Angels in 2017, selected 10th overall. Moniak, 25 in May, was selected first overall the year prior by the Phillies. He came over to the Angels in the Noah Syndergaard trade at last year’s deadline. Both players made quick charges through the minors to reach the majors in 2020, when Adell was just 21 and Moniak just 22. Since then, however, each player has struggled mightily. Adell currently has a batting line of .215/.259/.356 over 557 major league plate appearances. He’s also struck out in 34.8% of those trips to the plate. Moniak’s struggles have been even greater, as he’s struck out at a 39.5% rate while hitting .157/.218/.268.

There is an air of urgency around the Angels this year, with Shohei Ohtani slated for free agency at the end of the schedule. As such, the club isn’t relying on a breakout from Moniak or Adell, having acquired Renfroe and Phillips to push the younger players down the depth charts. Each of them has just one option year remaining, which perhaps makes this sort of a make-or-break year for them. Renfroe is set to reach free agency after 2023, which could provide an opportunity for one of the youngsters to find a future job if they succeed in turning a corner this year. However, they might have to be patient since the path has been blocked for now.

Minasian also provided some health updates on some other Angels, including Griffin Canning and Chris Rodriguez. Both of those pitchers missed the 2022 season entirely, with Rodriguez rehabbing from November 2021 shoulder surgery and Canning fighting lingering back issues. Both players have now begun throwing off a mound. “If both those guys are healthy entering spring training, they’ll be exciting to watch,” Minasian said. “Right now they are on schedule to be with us in spring training and we’ll see where they’re at.”

Canning posted a 3.99 ERA over 11 starts in the shortened 2020 season while striking out 23.5% of batters faced. However, he saw that balloon to 5.60 the following year while his strikeout rate dipped to 22.4%. Rodriguez was a starter in the minors but worked primarily out of the bullpen when he made his MLB debut in 2021. He registered a 3.64 ERA in his first 29 2/3 innings but has been dealing with the shoulder issue since then.

The Angels shouldn’t be reliant on either Canning or Rodriguez, at least to start 2023. They have a rotation consisting of Ohtani, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Sandoval, José Suarez and Reid Detmers. The club has ran out a six-man rotation in recent years to reduce the workload on Ohtani but have at least considered going to a five-man this season. If they want a sixth starter, they have some candidates for the final spot, such as Chase Silseth and Tucker Davidson. However, injuries and lackluster depth have been an achilles heel of the Angels in recent years, meaning the health of Canning and Rodriguez could be an important factor for them as the campaign goes along. That makes it at least somewhat encouraging that the players are on track for now.

The same goes on the position player side, as Minasian says that both first baseman Jared Walsh and shortstop Andrew Velazquez are on schedule for spring. Walsh was great in 2020 and 2021 but slumped badly last year and eventually required surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. He hit .215/.269/.374 last year after batting .280/.338/.531 over the two prior campaigns. Velazquez, known primarily for his glovework, was sidelined by knee surgery late last year. Both players could play key roles on the 2023 Angels club if they are healthy, but the club has taken measures to provide safety nets. They’ve added utility players Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela to their infield mix this winter, joining David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo and Anthony Rendon. Should Walsh or Velazquez not be available, the club will still have plenty of options to fill out the lineup, but it sounds like both players are on schedule to get back on track.

Minasian also addressed one other spot on the roster with Spring Training now just over a month away. Ohtani might not be with the team when camp opens, but not because of injury. He is going to be playing for Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic, with that team playing their first game March 9. At this point, it’s still unclear if Ohtani will report to camp with the Angels before then or simply meet up with them after the WBC.

The Angels’ Potentially Elite Rotation

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Despite boasting two of the most gifted players on the planet on their roster, the Angels have failed to make the playoffs since 2014 and failed to secure a winning season since 2015. As they have been for quite some time, they’ll look to change that in 2023 and return to the playoffs. While they haven’t made a splashy move, their signings of Tyler Anderson, Carlos Estevez and Brandon Drury, and acquisition of Gio Urshela and Hunter Renfroe have put them in good shape to do well this year.

Of course, a big challenge for the Angels is that they play in a division with the defending champion Astros, as well as the Mariners and Rangers, two teams that have big ambitions to compete this season. If they are to return to the postseason, they’ll need contributions across the board, but one area that the Angels will surely be leaning on as a strength is their starting rotation. The team has tended to work with a six-man rotation to preserve Shohei Ohtani’s workload in the past, and given they were linked with Nathan Eovaldi just before he signed with Texas, it seems likely they’ll add another starter before the season starts.

In the meantime, let’s take a look at the starting five for the Angels as things stand:

Shohei Ohtani: The Angels will be relying on their two-way superstar to have another monster season this year. There’s not a lot that hasn’t been said about how good Ohtani is, but for this exercise we’ll talk about him purely as a pitcher. He had his best year yet in 2022, throwing 166 innings of 2.33 ERA ball. The strikeouts were up, the walks were down, and Ohtani benefited a fair bit from leaning less on his fastball and throwing his slider more often. Angels manager Phil Nevin has already stated he plans to increase Ohtani’s workload next season, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles that given his other duties, but if the Angels can get another year like 2022 out of their ace they’ll come away very happy.

Tyler Anderson: Signed to a three-year, $39MM deal, the left-handed Anderson is the lone new face in the Angels starting rotation. A respectable back-of-the-rotation starter for a number of years, Anderson broke out with the Dodgers in 2022, pitching to a 2.57 ERA over 178 2/3 innings. It wasn’t so much an overhaul of his pitching repertoire as it was a few small tweaks (bumping up his changeup usage slightly) that seemingly did the trick for Anderson, and he induced a ton of soft contact out of opposition hitters. If he can show 2022 was no outlier Anderson will slot in as a very reliable second option behind Ohtani.

Patrick Sandoval: The second of four southpaws in the rotation, Sandoval enjoyed his own breakout year in 2022. The 26-year-old gave the Angels 148 innings of 2.91 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 23.7% clip and walking them 9.4% of the time. FIP pegged him a 3.91, which suggests a bit of regression is due, but he also had an above-average opponent’s BABIP of .316. Regardless, even if he can’t post a sub-3 ERA Sandoval definitely has the makings of a very productive starter. He struggled early on in his career, working to a 5.33 ERA between 2019-20, but has been highly effective ever since. One change he did make in 2022 was throwing his fastball less and leaning far more on his slider.

Jose Suarez: The 24-year-old hurled 109 innings of 3.96 ERA ball for the Angels last year, showing a strong 7.1% walk rate and a solid 22.3% strikeout rate, both of which improved from a year prior. He maintained his fastball usage in 2022, but mixed in a slider to his off-speed stuff (which includes a curveball and changeup) that he’d only thrown sparingly in the past. The ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but he was elite in the second half last year, working to a 2.81 ERA over 11 starts after the All Star break. Still just 24 there’s certainly a ton of promise in this youngster, and if he can build off his showing in the second half the Angels will have a very good fourth starter on their staff.

Reid Detmers: Rounding out their five is Detmers, a 23-year-old southpaw who worked to a 3.77 ERA over 129 innings last season, his first full year in the big leagues. He had a fast rise through the system after being drafted 10th overall in 2020, and given there was no minor league season that year it makes his rise to the big leagues, and strong first full season that much more impressive. Detmers owns a 93 mph fastball, and mixes in a slider, curveball and changeup. There’s plenty of upside for Detmers to tap into over the next few years, and if he can take another step forward in 2023 it won’t take long before he’s near the top of a list like this rather than rounding it out.

As noted earlier, it does seem likely that the Angels would opt to bring in a sixth starter to deepen the rotation. That could be someone like Michael Wacha or Johnny Cueto off the free agent market, or they could go with an internal option such as Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning or Chris Rodriguez. They’ve also got top pitching prospect Sam Bachman at Double-A, and getting closer to being a big league option.

Regardless of who the sixth option is, there’s a lot to like about this group, even if they were just able to put in a repeat of their 2022 performance. But the key for the Angels is there’s also a ton of upside in this group, particularly in the back of the rotation. That’s the sort of thing that could go from making this a strong rotation to one that is up there with the best in baseball. Of course, an injury or two could derail things quickly and there’s a chance that players take a step back rather than a step forward, but the potential is there for this group to be dominant.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.

It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.

Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.

Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.

Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.

Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Justin Verlander Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Justin Verlander has been named the American League’s Cy Young award winner, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He received all 30 first-place votes.

Like Sandy Alcantara in the National League, Verlander took the award in a clean sweep. The respective dominance of each player has look since taken away much of the intrigue as to who would actually claim the honors, and the unanimous finishes paint a picture of their excellence. Verlander’s elbow blew out during his first start of 2020, eventually leading to a Tommy John surgery that kept him out of action until this year. He returned to the Astros on a $25MM guarantee last winter and, despite being 39 years old, showed no ill effects of such a major procedure.

Verlander returned to make 28 starts, staying healthy until a late-season injured list stint with a calf strain. He tossed 175 innings with an AL-best 1.75 ERA, a mark nearly a half-run lower than that of the next-best finisher. Even with the late-season IL stay, the former MVP placed 16th in the Junior Circuit in innings. He finished seventh among those with 100+ frames in strikeout rate (27.8%) and walk percentage (4.4%) alike.

It’s the third career Cy Young nod for the future Hall of Famer. Verlander becomes the 11th pitcher in big league history to claim the award three times, joining former teammate Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw as the only active players to do so. He earned his ninth All-Star nod midseason and led his league in ERA for the second time.

Verlander’s Cy Young adds to an already illustrious resume, while his stellar season positions him for a fascinating trip to free agency. He’s presently on the open market after declining a player option with Houston for the 2023 campaign. There’s essentially no precedent for a pitcher performing this well hitting free agency heading into his age-40 season. Verlander’s sure to secure one of the loftiest per-year salaries in MLB history, and Houston owner Jim Crane said last night he’s looking to top Scherzer’s three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets from last winter.

The other finalists in the American League were Chicago’s Dylan Cease and Toronto’s Alek Manoah. Cease received 14 second-place votes to earn the runner-up finish after placing second with a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings. Manoah finished just behind him with a 2.24 ERA across 196 2/3 frames, securing seven second-place votes in his own right. Cease and Manoah joined Verlander in appearing on all 30 ballots in some capacity.

Shohei Ohtani finished in fourth place and actually secured more second-place votes (nine) than did Manoah after leading the league in strikeout rate. Innings leader Framber Valdez ended up in fifth. Others who earned at least one vote are Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, Nestor Cortes Jr., Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman.

Full voting breakdown available here.

The Opener: Angels, Senga, Options And QO Deadline

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As MLB’s offseason kicks into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Angels Won’t Trade Ohtani, But What Will They Do?

Few teams around baseball face as much uncertainty this offseason as the Angels do. Owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, and rumors of Shohei Ohtani being traded this offseason have swirled practically since the moment the trade deadline passed. Yesterday GM Perry Minasian announced that the team would not be fielding offers on Ohtani and he would remain with the team through Opening Day. With Ohtani set to test the free agent market after the 2023 season, the Angels will no doubt try to remain competitive, but a 73-89 showing in 2022 leaves Anaheim with a lot of work to do this offseason. Minasian notes that multi-year deals are on the table in spite of the club’s recent tendency toward one year agreements in previous offseasons, though it’s fair to wonder if Moreno would make major, long-term additions to a club’s payroll in the months running up to a sale. Starting pitching isn’t quite as big of a need as it has been in previous years due to the emergence of youngsters like Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, but another arm for the middle of the rotation likely ought to still be a priority. Perhaps the biggest need the Angels will have to address this offseason if they want to compete in 2023 is the bullpen, where Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup disappointed last year, and closer Raisel Iglesias was moved to the Braves at the trade deadline. Almost as important is addressing the infield; Luis Rengifo looked like a serviceable regular in 2022, but both David Fletcher and Jared Walsh struggled in 2023, and Anthony Rendon’s injury woes in recent seasons leave third base up in the air as well. A righty-hitting complement to Walsh and a shortstop-capable bat could be other sensible additions to the Angels offseason shopping list.

2. Senga’s Market Begins To Develop

While the vast majority of free agency is still tied up in their club’s exclusive negotiating window, international free agent Koudai Senga faces no such restrictions, and a potential suitor has already emerged: the Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmeyer talked with Senga’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who noted the Cubs had been in contact with him about Senga and that Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, another Wolfe client, has “loved” his experience in Chicago thus far. Rumors about the Cubs having interest in Senga have percolated for months, and with plenty of space available in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks, they may be an attractive destination for Senga.

3. Options, Qualifying Offer Deadline Looms

As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview earlier this week, the deadline for option decisions, as well as for teams to extend the Qualifying Offer to their pending free agents, is this Thursday, November 10th. Many option decisions have already been made, with Anthony Rizzo and Jean Segura among those who have most recently hit the free agent market officially. More option decisions remain, however. One particularly interesting example is James Paxton, whose dilemma Anthony Franco discussed yesterday. Anthony also previewed the upcoming QO decisions last week, with the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Mitch Haniger among the most interesting borderline cases. For a refresher on what draft picks are at stake with regards to the QO, you can check out Tim Dierkes’s post on the matter.

Minasian: Angels Will Not Trade Shohei Ohtani This Offseason

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Angels general manager Perry Minasian informed reporters this evening that two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani will open the 2023 season in Anaheim (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). The Angels are not giving any consideration to trading Ohtani, according to Minasian.

“Ohtani is not getting moved,” the GM told reporters. “He’s going to be here. He’ll be with us to start the season. I know there’s been rumors and all types of things, but he will be here. He’ll be part of the club. I said this before and I’ll say it again: We love the player. I think our goal is for him to be here for a long time.”

It’s a wholly unsurprising sentiment, as the Angels never seemed all that likely to move the 2021 AL MVP. Despite what would’ve surely been massive interest at this past summer’s trade deadline, Anaheim took Ohtani off the market almost immediately. Reports later indicated owner Arte Moreno directed his front office not to deal the two-time All-Star.

A few weeks later, Moreno announced he’s been exploring the possibility of selling the franchise. That process was reportedly already underway by the time the trade deadline rolled around, and the possibility of marketing an Ohtani-fronted roster to potential buyers figured to have played a role in the owner’s thinking. There hasn’t been much recent word on the sale process, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated last week that Moreno plans to go through with the sale.

The sale exploration could take most or all of the offseason, leaving the franchise in a state of uncertainty. The Halos are coming off a 73-89 season that marked their seventh straight below-average campaign. Anaheim dismissed Joe Maddon midseason and replaced him with Phil Nevin, but the managerial swap failed to reinvigorate a team that collapsed after a strong first month and a half. Minasian and his front office staff will set to work on trying to build around a core led by Ohtani and Mike Trout. The Halos have a promising rotation front four in Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, but they’re lacking in bullpen depth and don’t have much in the way of lineup certainty beyond Trout, Ohtani and, to a lesser extent, right fielder Taylor Ward.

How much money Moreno’s willing to allocate to build out a roster with which he’s ostensibly parting in the coming months is a question that looms over the offseason. The Angels opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the $188MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, the Halos have roughly $145.5MM in commitments on next year’s books. That includes salaries at or in excess of $30MM for each of Anthony Rendon, Trout and Ohtani.

The latter commitment was agreed upon last month, when the Angels and Ohtani agreed to a $30MM deal for his final season of club control. That set the record for the largest salary for an arbitration-eligible player in major league history, quickly foreclosing any possibility the parties would go to a hearing over his 2023 salary. There’s no indication they’ve recently discussed a longer-term deal, and Ohtani’s presently on track to be the top free agent in next winter’s class.

Minasian and company would surely love to keep the unique talent in Orange County for the long haul, but it remains to be seen if the 28-year-old is eager to engage in extension talks with the franchise’s present uncertainty. Fans of other teams will surely hold out hope the Angels change course in their resistance to dealing Ohtani, perhaps pointing to the other franchise currently up for sale as a hoped-for example. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo went on record in June to say the team would not trade Juan Soto, but they reconsidered and ultimately moved him at the deadline after Soto declined what proved to be their final long-term extension offer. That said, it’s generally rare to hear a baseball operations leader formally close the book on any potential roster maneuver, and it’d now register as great a surprise as ever if Ohtani is wearing anything other than an Angel uniform on Opening Day.

Angels Not Discussing Shohei Ohtani Trades At Present

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With the offseason fast approaching, MLB front offices have begun exploratory talks about potential trades. However, Andy Martino of SNY reports that teams calling the Angels about two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani are finding that the Halos have “no appetite” for discussing such scenarios at present.

It’s no surprise that plenty of teams would be interested in Ohtani, after he showed that his 2021 MVP season was no fluke. A year ago, he hit 46 home runs and threw 130 1/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball en route to securing a unanimous MVP selection. This year, he took his pitching game to new heights, getting to 166 innings while lowering his ERA to 2.33. His offense took a bit of a dip, as he dropped to 34 homers in a similar number of plate appearances, but he cut his strikeout rate by more than 5% and had a better batting average.

That level of two-way production is perhaps unprecedented in all of baseball history, but certainly within the past century or so. Even Babe Ruth, who excelled at both hitting and pitching, didn’t really see those parts of his career overlap in the same way since he was a initially a pitcher who gradually took the mound less and hit more. Given Ohtani’s incredible and unique skillset, not to mention marketing opportunities, every team in baseball would surely love to have him on their roster.

In that case, it also stands to reason that the Angels would be loath to part with him. The fact that it’s even been a consideration is due to a few factors. First off, the team overall has been struggling of late, despite the contributions of both Ohtani and Mike Trout. They haven’t had a winning season since 2015 and haven’t made the postseason since 2014. Ohtani is also just a year away from free agency now and there haven’t any reports to suggest that there’s any momentum towards an extension. Furthermore, owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, casting a great deal of fog over the future of the franchise.

These factors put Ohtani in a situation somewhat analogous to that of Juan Soto, another superstar who once seemed untouchable in trades until he wasn’t. The circumstances weren’t exactly the same, since Soto still had 2.5 years of control at the time he was traded from the Nationals to the Padres. However, the team was unable to gain any traction in extension talks with Soto due to the uncertain nature of that franchise, which is also for sale. These comparisons have led to much speculation about Ohtani following a similar path, and the club even listened to offers at the most recent trade deadline. But even then, a trade seemed unlikely and all deliberations were reportedly kiboshed by Moreno.

With the hot stove about to warm up again in short order, the Ohtani rumors will surely follow, though it seems the club is not on the verge of anything. Martino’s report indicates that the Angels are rebuffing efforts to talk trade scenarios. Instead, it is believed they will try to explore an extension and, if unsuccessful, open up trade talks at next year’s deadline. We also can’t really rule out the scenario where the Angels are competitive next year and decide to keep him past the deadline. After all, they were neck-and-neck with the Astros through mid-May this year before a 14-game losing streak dealt them a gut punch that they never really recovered from. With a few improvements and some better luck next year, getting within striking distance of the expanded playoffs isn’t totally out of the question.

As for this offseason, it’s always possible that their approach could change as it progresses, for a number of reasons. If a sale of the club is finalized, perhaps the new owners will tip the scales one way or another. Maybe they will be interested in giving out a huge extension in order to keep a marquee player around, or perhaps they’d be prefer to try a rebuild and keep spending low for a while, as happened when the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter group purchased the Marlins.

That is a great unknown which could potentially extend to the club’s other offseason efforts. As we saw with Soto, a murky franchise future can make a player reluctant to bind themselves into a situation they could later regret. Will that make it harder to get free agents to sign in Anaheim? If that is indeed the case, it will make it challenging for general manager Perry Minasian to improve a 73-win team in order to compete with the dominant Astros, ascendant Mariners and aggressive Rangers in the AL West.

Perhaps there are future scenarios where Ohtani becomes available. As we saw with Soto, a player is “untouchable” until everything aligns just right to make the unthinkable become reality. For now, it seems the Angels will kick any trade considerations down the road. But their hold on Ohtani lasts for just one more year, meaning something will have to give between now and then.

Ohtani Feels “Negative” About 2022

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Shohei Ohtani’s patience may be wearing thin with the Angels’ consistent lack of success. Los Angeles’s two-way superstar has repeatedly indicated his desire to win to the press, sparking a plethora of rumors regarding his intentions once he becomes a free agent. With only one season left until he is scheduled to hit the open market, every word that comes out of Ohtani’s mouth is going to be perceived as a potential clue as to his future plans.

On Tuesday, Ohtani arrived home in his Japan where he spoke with reporters, including Koji Ueda of the Associated Press. This time, he not only reiterated his commitment to winning, but explicitly stated his disappointment with the Angels’ inability to win. Speaking in Japanese, Ohtani said that “August and September in particular felt longer to me than last year” because the Angels “were not able to play as many good games as we would like — including 14 consecutive losses. So I have a rather negative impression of this season.”

These statements lamenting the final stretch of the Angels’ season come even as Ohtani closed his season on an absolute tear. From August on, the reigning AL MVP slashed .303/.363/.560, posted a wRC+ of 156, and logged a 1.62 ERA over 66 2/3 innings. It speaks volumes about Ohtani’s team-first mentality that he would describe August and September as specifically woeful, considering how fantastic his individual performance was during that timeframe.

The Angels finished 73-89 in 2022, 13 games back of Tampa Bay for the final wild card spot. In Ohtani’s five seasons, the Halos have never had a record at or above .500 and have ended each season at least ten games behind the AL West champion, despite frequently getting world-class production out of Ohtani and Mike Trout. They will also face difficulties in changing their fortunes going forward. The Angels’ farm system was ranked dead last in MLB.com’s 2022 midseason rankings and features only one top-100 prospect in catcher Logan O’Hoppe (#67). As such, they do not have many young assets with which they could flip into Major League-ready players via trade. Also, with owner Arte Moreno exploring a sale of the club, it’s unknown how willing he will be to make major investments in the free agent market this winter.

With the club underperforming this year, the Angels considered Ohtani trades at the deadline but Moreno reportedly put the kibosh on that plan. Of course, if the team has a new owner, that has the potential to change things. If the team is having another disappointing season as next year’s deadline approaches, the trade rumors will only grow louder.

Like everything involving Ohtani, his trade market would no doubt be unprecedented and allow the Angels to add a large pile of young talent to their system. In fact, Ohtani has already demonstrated a capacity to break records on the market, having agreed to a $30 million contract in his final year of arbitration, the largest ever for an arbitration eligible player.

What is uncertain is which team would have the motivation and assets to unload a massive prospect haul for one guaranteed year, or just a few months, of Ohtani. Contending teams would be most likely to hedge a big chunk of their future to do so, but there are only so many contenders with sufficient farm systems to land him. The Dodgers, Guardians, and Rays are the only three playoff teams with farm systems ranked in the top 10 of MLB.com’s 2022 midseason farm system rankings. Additionally, the Mets, Cardinals, and Yankees all have at least four top-100 prospects that, if included in a theoretical deal, could help a deal come together.

Whether Ohtani stays an Angel or is traded somewhere else, speculation regarding his future is sure to dominate headlines in 2023.

Angels’ GM Perry Minasian On Ohtani, Rotation, Coaching Staff

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The Angels have already gotten a head start on some notable offseason business, both regarding the roster and its clubhouse leadership. In recent days, the Halos both avoided arbitration with the reigning AL MVP and finalized their managerial situation heading into 2023.

Over the weekend, the club and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani agreed to a $30MM salary for next season. The one-year pact avoided the possibility of what would’ve been the most fascinating arbitration case ever, with no clear precedent for a player of Ohtani’s talents. The sides won’t need to go anywhere near a hearing room, though, with the two-time All-Star instead agreeing to the largest salary for an arbitration-eligible player in big league history.

While the Halos are surely relieved to have Ohtani’s case settled, there are still plenty of questions about his long-term future in Orange County. The 2023 campaign is the final year in which he’s under club control, and Los Angeles heads into the winter coming off another disappointing season. General manager Perry Minasian met with reporters this afternoon (links via Sam Blum of the Athletic and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register), and while he didn’t offer any specifics about Ohtani’s situation, he unsurprisingly indicated he’d be thrilled to keep him beyond next season. “I think it’s Step 1,” Minasian said of avoiding arbitration. “Hopefully there are more steps down the road. … I’d love to have him here for a long time.”

That’s obviously not a firm declaration about Ohtani’s future, but it stands to reason Minasian and his staff will look to engage his reps at CAA at some point over the winter. They’ll surely receive calls from other teams inquiring about his availability in trade as well. The Halos obviously would’ve received ample interest in Ohtani at this past deadline, but owner Arte Moreno reportedly quashed any potential for a deal early in the process. Not long thereafter, Moreno announced he was looking into the possibility of selling the franchise.

Minasian told reporters he wasn’t aware of the status of the sales process, little surprise since he’s not involved in that decision. Asked whether it’d impact the club’s budget, the front office leader largely demurred. Minasian noted that ownership “still wants to put a good team on the field” and “is really competitive” but didn’t reveal any specifics about the franchise’s 2023 payroll outlook. The Halos opened the 2022 season with a player payroll north of $188MM, a franchise record figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They already have roughly $133MM committed to next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s before accounting for an arbitration class that includes Luis Rengifo, Jared Walsh and Super Two qualifiers Taylor Ward and Patrick Sandoval.

Working in the Halos favor, however, is that Minasian and his group aren’t faced with the losses of too many key contributors. Aside from Kurt Suzuki, who has already announced his retirement, the Halos stand to see Michael Lorenzen, Matt Duffy and Archie Bradley hit the open market. Lorenzen is the only member of that group who was relatively effective this year. Signed to a $6.75MM free agent deal, he pitched to a 4.24 ERA across 18 starts. Minasian suggested they could look to retain him via free agency, although he also noted the team wasn’t firmly committed to redeploying a six-man rotation again next season. The Halos have run with a six-man staff in recent years, in part to reduce the workload Ohtani has to shoulder on the mound. “I wouldn’t rule it out,” the GM said of a five-man rotation. “But if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. There’s a balance there. Is the risk worth the reward?”

Minasian also addressed the coaching staff, noting that the club is still evaluating whether to make changes in that area. Phil Nevin will be back as skipper after signing a one-year deal yesterday, but it’s to be determined whether his staff will remain in place. Asked about the short term of Nevin’s first permanent managerial contract, Minasian said the club will “(see) where it goes next year and (go) from there, but my hope and my expectation is that this is a long-term thing.” Of course, the long-term future of the organization will be determined in large part by the direction any incoming ownership group plans to take. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests the franchise sale price could run as high as $2.5 billion, although the identities of the groups currently in talks with Moreno and his staff haven’t been publicly reported.

Angels, Shohei Ohtani Avoid Arbitration With One-Year, $30MM Contract For 2023

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The Angels and Shohei Ohtani have avoided perhaps the most unique arbitration case in baseball history by agreeing to a one-year, $30MM pact for the 2023 season.  Ohtani is still scheduled to reach free agency following the 2023 campaign.  Ohtani is represented by CAA Sports.

The two-way star becomes the 20th player in baseball to receive a $30MM average annual value on a contract, and that $30MM figure also establishes two other notable thresholds.  Ohtani will now receive the largest salary ever for an arbitration-eligible player, and he also gets the biggest year-to-year raise for an arb-eligible player, after he earned $5.5MM this season.  That $5.5MM salary was established in an earlier extension that avoided arbitration, as Ohtani and the Angels agreed to a two-year, $8.5MM contract in February 2021 that covered the first two of his three arb-eligible years.

At the time of that deal, Ohtani has pitched only 1 2/3 total innings over the 2019-20 seasons, due to a Tommy John surgery and then a flexor strain.  He was also coming off a mediocre year at the plate, hitting only .190/.291/.366 over 175 plate appearances during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.  Though Ohtani was hardly the only player to struggle under the unusual circumstances of the 2020 campaign, there was speculation that his 2018 rookie season might have been his peak, and that Ohtani would be better served by choosing either hitting or pitching.

Instead, Ohtani bounce back with two of the most extraordinary seasons in baseball history.  Since Opening Day 2021, Ohtani has hit .267/.366/.560 with 80 home runs over 1282 plate appearances, while also posting a 2.72 ERA and an array of dazzling secondary metrics over 291 1/3 innings.  After winning AL MVP honors in 2021, it looks as if Ohtani will be at worst a second-place finisher in this year’s MVP race (due to Aaron Judge’s all-timer of a season), and he’ll also earn a good chunk of votes in the AL Cy Young Award race.

With this in mind, it can certainly be argued that $30MM is still a bargain from the Angels’ perspective, considering that Ohtani would earn hefty salaries if he was “only” an All-Star hitter or “only” an All-Star pitcher.  It would’ve been fascinating to see what arbitration figures the Angels and Ohtani’s camp would’ve submitted in this unprecedented scenario, but this agreement sidesteps that possibility.

Los Angeles now has three players earning at least $30MM in 2023, as Ohtani joins Mike Trout ($35.45MM) and Anthony Rendon ($38MM).  In practical terms, it doesn’t change much for the Angels’ payroll situation, as the team naturally figured it would be paying Ohtani some type of gigantic salary in his final arb-eligible year.  In pure dollars and cents, it doesn’t actually represent much different from the Angels’ 2022 payroll, as the since-released Justin Upton was earning $28MM in the final year of his contract with the club.

Ohtani’s future beyond 2023 remains a mystery, as he’ll be heading into free agency presumably still in his prime both on the mound and at the plate.  Though Ohtani turns 29 in July, his two-way ability might still land him the biggest contract in baseball history, topping the $365MM in new money given to Mookie Betts in his extension with the Dodgers prior to the 2020 season.

In reaching an agreement with Ohtani now, the Angels front office gets one big question mark settled heading into what might be one of the most uncertain offseasons in franchise history.  Owner Arte Moreno is looking into a possible sale, and with this situation lingering over the organization, it isn’t clear how aggressive GM Perry Minasian will be allowed to be in upgrading the roster.  The Halos are struggling through their seventh consecutive losing season, so while a teardown isn’t out of the question, it is also possible Moreno might order a final push to try and return to the postseason one final time under his ownership.

Until there’s more clarity with the potential sale, it is hard to gauge what will happen with Ohtani in Anaheim.  Given that Ohtani has already expressed his displeasure with losing, it seems hard to believe that he would agree to an extension unless he was satisfied that the team was heading in the right direction — even if a new owner does take over within 7-8, their influence might not be apparent in the short window of time before Ohtani can test the open market.  A new owner might bring a new willingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold, and thus it wouldn’t necessarily be an obstacle in adding a massive Ohtani deal worth more than $40MM (at least) in AAV on top of the long-term Trout and Rendon contracts.

A trade also can’t be ruled out, though it seems like the least likely scenario considering that Moreno vetoed any possibility that Ohtani would be swapped prior to the last trade deadline.  As noted by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, establishing Ohtani’s 2023 price tag early gives any interested trade partners more time to plan offers, yet not having Ohtani on the roster could also impact purchasing interest for any potential new owners.  From a practical baseball sense, it is also hard to gauge what exactly an Ohtani trade would look like, considering his elite two-way talent but also just one remaining year of control.

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