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Spencer Strider

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings, Ohtani’s Stolen Money And The A’s Moving To Sacramento

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • How can a pitcher blow a save in the seventh inning? How early can a save be blown? (38:25)
  • Do you think the Tigers will release Javier Báez? It is painful to watch him. (41:15)
  • Who could the Braves target inside or outside the organization to replace Spencer Strider? (45:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Spencer Strider Undergoes Season-Ending Internal Brace Surgery

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Spencer Strider’s season is over, as the Braves announced that the right-hander underwent an internal brace surgery on Friday.  It was revealed last week that Strider has suffered some UCL damage, and while a brace surgery is somewhat less serious than the worst-case scenario of another Tommy John surgery, the 25-year-old ace will still miss the remainder of the 2024 campaign.

This marks the second major injury absence of Strider’s career, as he already had a TJ procedure in 2019 when he was still pitching at Clemson.  Returning to pitch only 12 innings during the 2020 NCAA season that was interrupted by the pandemic, Strider still got selected in the abbreviated five-round 2020 draft, as Atlanta’s decision to take the righty in the fourth round quickly looked like a steal.

Strider performed so well in his first taste of pro ball that he rocketed through the Braves’ farm system and made his MLB debut in October 2021.  Strider hasn’t been back to the minors since, as he moved into Atlanta’s rotation in 2022 and quickly established himself as a frontline arm.  Over 318 1/3 innings in 2022-23, Strider posted a 3.36 ERA, an eight percent walk rate, and a whopping 37.4% strikeout rate.  This performance earned him runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022, an All-Star selection and a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2023, and a six-year, $75MM contract extension in October 2022 that cemented Strider as one of Atlanta’s cornerstones.

Unfortunately, Strider’s career will now be put on hold for the next year.  Exactly when he’ll return in 2025 is somewhat fluid, as internal brace surgeries are still relatively new enough that the recovery timeline isn’t quite as established as the 13-15 months normally associated to Tommy John rehabs.  In general, the shorter timeline for brace surgeries means that Strider could be back in Atlanta’s rotation by Opening Day 2025.  (For more on the topic, The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen recently wrote a piece detailing the differences between brace procedures, Tommy John surgeries, and UCL revision surgeries.)

Every pitcher’s arm is different, of course, and it is possible Strider’s timeline could be extended because this is already his second UCL-related surgery.  The fact that his current UCL damage wasn’t so severe that a full Tommy John surgery was necessary is at least some kind of silver lining, so if all goes well, Strider should be able to cut several months off his rehab.

That fact doesn’t much help a Braves team that is aiming to win the 2024 World Series, and losing Strider is naturally a big hit to these championship aspirations.  The remaining starting four of Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, and Reynaldo Lopez is still pretty strong, as Lopez has in particular looked great in his return to a starter’s role.  If Lopez can keep up anything close to this form and Sale can remain healthy and effective, the Braves have enough starting pitching depth on paper to perhaps cover for Strider’s absence.

Allan Winans got the start in Strider’s place on Thursday with very shaky (six ER in five innings) results, and Darius Vines has since been called up for what will probably be a longer look in the rotation.  Vines made his MLB debut in 2023 with a 3.98 ERA over 20 1/3 innings, and even if Vines isn’t quite ready for prime time, the Braves can turn to Bryce Elder, Dylan Dodd, Huascar Ynoa, AJ Smith-Shawver, Winans, and others down at Triple-A.

Since all of this group are on the 40-man roster and have minor league options remaining, Atlanta could run something of a revolving door through the fifth spot in the rotation, unless someone pitches well enough to seize the job entirely.  Given all of these starter candidates on hand, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos might not feel the need to pursue pitching at the deadline, though obviously much can change between now and the end of July.  The Braves’ mighty lineup carried the team to 104 wins in 2023 despite several rotation injuries, even if the hope this season was that a healthier pitching staff would be the final piece to carry the team to its second World Series title in four years.

Braves Place Spencer Strider On Injured List With UCL Sprain

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April 7: The Braves officially placed Strider on the 15-day injured list this morning with a UCL sprain. The club recalled right-hander Allan Winans in the corresponding move. Winans, 28, posted a 5.29 ERA and 4.09 FIP in six starts with Atlanta last year.

April 6: Braves right-hander Spencer Strider underwent an MRI today and the testing revealed that the ace hurler has suffered damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, per a team announcement. The next step for the Braves is for Strider to be evaluated by noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister, though the club noted that a date for that visit has yet to be determined.

UCL damage is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery, though it appears no determination has yet been made regarding Strider’s specific treatment plan. If Strider does end up going under the knife, it won’t be the first time the hurler’s right elbow has required surgery. Before being drafted by the Braves in the fourth round of the 2020 draft, Strider underwent Tommy John surgery back in 2019 while pitching for Clemson University. If required, a second surgery would surely bring Strider’s 2024 campaign to an early close while also shelving him for much of the 2025 campaign as well.

Even less severe options are likely to result in an extended absence for the right-hander, however. For example, Red Sox righty Lucas Giolito underwent an internal brace procedure on his UCL last month that could allow him to pitch the entire 2025 campaign, though he’ll still miss all of the current season. Meanwhile, Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie required only rehab for a UCL sprain suffered last June and managed to return to the mound after just over three months on the shelf.

Regardless of what treatment is ultimately prescribed for Strider, it appears he’s ticketed for a significant absence. It’s a brutal blow for the Braves, though not entirely unexpected after the club announced yesterday that Strider would undergo an MRI on his elbow. The fourth place finisher in NL Cy Young award voting last year, Strider has emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the sport over the past two seasons, pitching to an excellent 3.36 ERA with a sterling 2.43 FIP while striking out a sensational 37.4% of batters faced. That incredible strikeout rate is by far the best of all qualified starters over the past two seasons, with reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell, who sports a 31.7% rate, standing as the only other pitcher to post a figure north of 30%.

Fortunately for Atlanta, the club is about as well equipped as any team could be to handle an extended absence from a pitcher of Strider’s caliber. Pending free agent Max Fried is an ace in his own right with a career 3.06 ERA, while veteran southpaw Chris Sale is only a few years removed from being one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet in Chicago and Boston. With those two at the front of the rotation, veterans Charlie Morton and Reynaldo Lopez in the middle, and quality youngsters Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver available as depth options for the fifth spot in the rotation, the Braves’ rotation should be able to support the club’s excellent offense as they push for their seventh consecutive NL East title even without Strider in the mix.

Spencer Strider To Undergo MRI On Right Elbow

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Braves ace Spencer Strider will go for an MRI on his right elbow on Saturday after complaining of discomfort on Friday night (per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). The All-Star right-hander threw just four innings and 88 pitches in his second start of the season, giving up five earned runs while striking out four. As Mark Bowman of MLB.com noted, his 12 whiffs were tied for the “sixth-lowest total he has induced while throwing at least 80 pitches” in his MLB career. For comparison, Strider produced 18 whiffs and eight strikeouts on 90 pitches in his season debut. To make matters worse, his velocity was down on all four of his pitches. Although Strider didn’t mention his discomfort until he exited the game (per David O’Brien of The Athletic), something was clearly off throughout his start.

Despite his unimposing stature, Strider is one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in baseball. His four-seam fastball averaged 97.2 mph and topped out at 100.5 mph in 2023. He pairs his blistering fastball with a terrific slider, a changeup (against left-handed batters), and as of this year, a curveball. For a flame-throwing hurler toying with a new breaking pitch, the words “elbow discomfort” are especially worrisome. Not to mention, Strider has already suffered a torn UCL, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019 during his time at Clemson University.

Strider burst onto the scene in 2022 and established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game the following year. He led the National League in wins, strikeouts, and FIP, en route to All-MLB First Team honors. He entered the 2024 campaign as the undisputed ace of a strong Braves rotation and a popular preseason pick to win the NL Cy Young. A serious elbow injury would be devastating for both Strider and his club.

Even if the MRI comes back clean, Bowman suggests Atlanta will exercise caution with Strider over the next two weeks. He could take a 15-day trip to the IL while his elbow regains strength. After all, there is little harm in playing it safe.

The Braves remain the favorites in the NL East even if Strider misses significant time. Still, any injury to their No. 1 starter would be a huge blow, particularly if Strider is unavailable to pitch in the playoffs. The team provided little reason for optimism or pessimism after the game, so fans will have to wait until Saturday to learn more about the extent of Strider’s potential injury.

Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

Blake Snell Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Free agent left-hander Blake Snell has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Logan Webb of the Giants finished second in the voting while Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks finished third.

Snell, 31 next month, has now earned a Cy Young award for the second time in his career. The first trophy was in the American League, with Snell winning as a member of the Rays in 2018. He is just the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Max Scherzer, Gaylord Perry and Roy Halladay.

The left-handed Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career, with both his health and performance wobbling over the years, but his two award-winning campaigns have been excellent. His first trophy came after posting an earned run average of 1.89 with the Rays and this second piece of hardware was earned by posting a 2.25 for the Padres this year. His most recent campaign saw him walk 13.3% of batters faced but he danced around those by striking out 31.5% of his opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.4% clip. He probably had some help from the baseball gods as his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate were both on the lucky side of average, but his punchouts and grounders surely helped him somewhat as well.

Outside of those two campaigns, the results have been far more mixed. He got to 180 innings pitched in his award-winning campaigns but hasn’t reached 130 in any other season. He also hasn’t posted an ERA lower than 3.24 in any of them.

Of course, that doesn’t matter for the Cy Young voting. It’s a single-season award and his year-to-year consistency is not something for the voters to consider. Snell’s voting wasn’t quite unanimous but he got 28 of the 30 first-place votes. But his overall track record will be of concern to the clubs considering signing him as a free agent. Pitchers with multiple Cy Youngs don’t hit free agency every day but it’s also incredibly rare for a pitcher to put so many runners on base without allowing them to score. Regardless of those concerns, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a contract of $200MM over seven years and he’s already garnering plenty of interest.

Webb had a 3.25 ERA in 216 innings for the Giants this year, which got him one of the first-place votes and 17 for second. Gallen had a 3.47 ERA in his 210 innings, which led to one first-place vote and three for second. In the full voting, which can be seen here, votes also went to Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Zack Wheeler, Kodai Senga and Corbin Burnes.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

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One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

Michael Harris II Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Braves center fielder Michael Harris II has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. He was followed by teammate Spencer Strider and Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan in second and third place, respectively.

This has long been viewed as a two-horse race, with the pair of Atlanta players separating themselves from the pack. Harris, a third-round pick in 2019, emerged as one of the game’s more interesting prospects with a breakout 2021 showing in High-A. He began this year in Double-A but quickly proved too advanced for the level, tearing apart opposing pitchers through 43 games. The Braves made the bold decision to skip him over Triple-A entirely, installing him as the everyday center fielder upon calling him to the big leagues in late May.

Harris stepped in excellently for the defending World Series winners. The left-handed hitter posted  a .297/.339/.514 line through his first 441 big league plate appearances. He didn’t draw many walks, but Harris hit nearly .300 while connecting on 19 home runs and swiping 20 bases. He also played excellent center field defense, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him as eight runs above average with the glove. Statcast estimated he was six runs above par, and the 21-year-old now looks like one of the most promising two-way position players in the game.

Strider, meanwhile, looks like one of the sport’s top young arms. A fourth-round draftee in 2020, he immediately outperformed that fairly modest selection. The right-hander earned a brief big league audition late last season and began this year in the MLB bullpen. By mid-May, he’d been moved to the rotation, and his excellent fastball-slider combination continued to befuddle big league hitters. The 24-year-old combined for 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball between the bullpen and the starting staff, striking out an incredible 38.3% of opponents along the way.

A top-two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting takes on significance beyond its mere prestige value now, thanks to provisions in the new collective bargaining agreement. The CBA contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year.

Harris meets all three criteria and will thus earn a full service year, although he inked an eight-year contract extension midseason that negates any chance he’ll ever proceed through arbitration and pushed back his path to free agency. The full service year will have a small move in Harris’ eventual push for 10 years in the majors and its associated pension and possible no-trade benefits. Strider earned a full service year by playing 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless, although he also later signed an extension.

The second element of the PPI won’t come into play in the National League. A player who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria, entered the year with less than 60 days of service and spent enough time on the MLB roster to earn a full service year independent of the awards finish would net their team a bonus draft choice with a top-two finish. Harris qualified for the prospect criteria but was not on the MLB roster long enough for a full service year without the award bonus. Strider did accrue the service time element but did not appear on a preseason Top 100 at any of MLB Pipeline, BA or ESPN. Unlike the Mariners, who received an extra selection based on Julio Rodríguez’s AL ROY win, the Braves will not accrue a bonus pick.

Harris picked up 22 of 30 first-place nods, with Strider collecting the other eight votes. Harris and Strider were 1-2 in some order on 29 of 30 ballots, with Reds closer Alexis Díaz earning the other second-place vote. Donovan earned a third-place finish with a .281/.394/.379 showing over 468 plate appearances in a utility capacity for St. Louis; he grabbed 22 third-place votes. Arizona outfielder Jake McCarthy, Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo and Pittsburgh shortstop Oneil Cruz joined Díaz in picking up stray support.

Full vote breakdown available here.

Braves Announce NLDS Roster

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Although the Mets were atop the NL East for the vast majority of the season, Atlanta charged hard down the stretch and surged past them (via a tiebreaker). They earned their fifth consecutive division crown and also earned a bye past the Wild Card round under this year’s new expanded playoff format. They will now square off against a divisional rival, facing the Phillies in the NLDS. The roster for the series is as follows…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The most notable name on the list is Strider, as his status was uncertain for the series. His last appearance was September 18, after which he went on the injured list due to a left oblique strain. It seems there’s a chance he could return in the next week, based on his placement on this roster. Jeff Schultz of The Athletic relays word from manager Brian Snitker that the club hasn’t yet decided on a Game 3 starter, with Strider and Morton both under consideration. Yesterday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com said that the club was leaning towards Wright for Game 2.

Prior to landing on the injured list, Strider was enjoying a spectacular rookie season. He started in the bullpen but eventually made his way into the rotation and dominated the whole way. He threw 131 2/3 innings with a 2.67 ERA, 40.3% ground ball rate, 8.5% walk rate and an absurd 38.3% strikeout rate. The club was so impressed that they gave him a six-year, $75MM extension, announced just yesterday.

What role he can play in this series is something that is still to be determined. He is throwing a bullpen today and won’t be an option for relief work in Game 1, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. How his body responds to today’s session will likely determine how the club proceeds with regards to Strider’s workload.

As for who is not on the list, the most noteworthy omission is that of Tyler Matzek. Toscano relays that Matzek felt some elbow discomfort recently and is being evaluated in Texas. The southpaw was a key component of the club’s World Series run last year, throwing 15 2/3 innings in the postseason with a 1.72 ERA. In the regular season this year, he posted a 3.50 ERA over 43 2/3 innings. The fact that he’s been left off this roster suggests the club isn’t expecting him back in short order, though he could return to the club down the line if he gets good news in Texas and the club stays alive.

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